Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

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watchnerd
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by watchnerd »

nisiprius wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 5:26 pm Elon Musk:

May 12th, 2021: "Tesla will not be selling any bitcoin."

May 16th, 2021: Bitcoin Dumps After Musk Fails to Deny that Tesla Has Sold Or May Sell All Its BTC Holdings.
I think it's no lose for him.

1. Keep ESG status rating by dumping "un green BTC"

2. Introduce BTC FUD that provides opportunity for a new option to take its place

3. Pump up DOGE by monetizing his fan base

4. Tesla takes DOGE payments

5. Tesla gets a bunch of new capital at virtually zero cost

I wouldn't be shocked to see BTC drop to $35k during the summer.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by txhill »

watchnerd wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 5:32 pm
nisiprius wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 5:26 pm Elon Musk:

May 12th, 2021: "Tesla will not be selling any bitcoin."

May 16th, 2021: Bitcoin Dumps After Musk Fails to Deny that Tesla Has Sold Or May Sell All Its BTC Holdings.
I think it's no lose for him.

1. Keep ESG status rating by dumping "un green BTC"

2. Introduce BTC FUD that provides opportunity for a new option to take its place

3. Pump up DOGE by monetizing his fan base

4. Tesla takes DOGE payments

5. Tesla gets a bunch of new capital at virtually zero cost

I wouldn't be shocked to see BTC drop to $35k during the summer.

You're forgetting:

6. Dump personal stash of BTC / buy DOGE right before tweeting & buy back in at depressed prices & continue to mock the SEC as powerless

7. Stroke own ego by showing how readily he can manipulate the markets
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watchnerd
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by watchnerd »

txhill wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 5:37 pm


You're forgetting:

6. Dump personal stash of BTC / buy DOGE right before tweeting & buy back in at depressed prices & continue to mock the SEC as powerless

7. Stroke own ego by showing how readily he can manipulate the markets
Gangster capitalism at work.
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OohLaLa
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by OohLaLa »

watchnerd wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 5:32 pm
nisiprius wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 5:26 pm Elon Musk:

May 12th, 2021: "Tesla will not be selling any bitcoin."

May 16th, 2021: Bitcoin Dumps After Musk Fails to Deny that Tesla Has Sold Or May Sell All Its BTC Holdings.
I think it's no lose for him.

1. Keep ESG status rating by dumping "un green BTC"

2. Introduce BTC FUD that provides opportunity for a new option to take its place

3. Pump up DOGE by monetizing his fan base

4. Tesla takes DOGE payments

5. Tesla gets a bunch of new capital at virtually zero cost

I wouldn't be shocked to see BTC drop to $35k during the summer.
He must be playing some 4D chess, because, at quick glance, it makes no sense...

Tesla acquired BTC at the beginning of February, at around 45K. Why just get rid of 10%, at a profit, then go on a hate campaign on Twitter, thus shooting down BTC value, if your goal is to benefit? The price right now is hovering around the same mark and if news coming out of them selling, it will probably drop even further, putting their position in the red.

I understand some folks here want to see some obvious, simple financial gain here, but the facts so far don't line up with that hypothesis. There must be some other intent we're not really privy to.

Also, if Tesla was to buy DOGE, why would they pump beforehand, instead of simply acquiring rapidly, before having to declare anything?
1- Take position in DOGE.
2- Have Elon then start a love campaign and involve himself in the community. Price goes up.
3- Profit by selling small parts, as needed, to pad results numbers.
That would make more sense.
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watchnerd
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by watchnerd »

OohLaLa wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 5:45 pm
watchnerd wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 5:32 pm
nisiprius wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 5:26 pm Elon Musk:

May 12th, 2021: "Tesla will not be selling any bitcoin."

May 16th, 2021: Bitcoin Dumps After Musk Fails to Deny that Tesla Has Sold Or May Sell All Its BTC Holdings.
I think it's no lose for him.

1. Keep ESG status rating by dumping "un green BTC"

2. Introduce BTC FUD that provides opportunity for a new option to take its place

3. Pump up DOGE by monetizing his fan base

4. Tesla takes DOGE payments

5. Tesla gets a bunch of new capital at virtually zero cost

I wouldn't be shocked to see BTC drop to $35k during the summer.
He must be playing some 4D chess, because, at quick glance, it makes no sense...

Tesla acquired BTC at the beginning of February, at around 45K. Why just get rid of 10%, at a profit, then go on a hate campaign on Twitter, thus shooting down BTC value, if your goal is to benefit? The price right now is hovering around the same mark and if news coming out of them selling, it will probably drop even further, putting their position in the red.

I understand some folks here want to see some obvious, simple financial gain here, but the facts so far don't line up with that hypothesis. There must be some other intent we're not really privy to.

Also, if Tesla was to buy DOGE, why would they pump beforehand, instead of simply acquiring rapidly, before having to declare anything?
1- Take position in DOGE.
2- Have Elon then start a love campaign and involve himself in the community. Price goes up.
3- Profit by selling small parts, as needed, to pad results numbers.
That would make more sense.
That's assuming he thought of all of this in advance.

He probably didn't even get the idea until a few weeks ago.

And I don't think he's motivated by profit as much as ego.

He realized he'd love to have his own money.
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txhill
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by txhill »

watchnerd wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 5:59 pm
OohLaLa wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 5:45 pm
watchnerd wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 5:32 pm
nisiprius wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 5:26 pm Elon Musk:

May 12th, 2021: "Tesla will not be selling any bitcoin."

May 16th, 2021: Bitcoin Dumps After Musk Fails to Deny that Tesla Has Sold Or May Sell All Its BTC Holdings.
I think it's no lose for him.

1. Keep ESG status rating by dumping "un green BTC"

2. Introduce BTC FUD that provides opportunity for a new option to take its place

3. Pump up DOGE by monetizing his fan base

4. Tesla takes DOGE payments

5. Tesla gets a bunch of new capital at virtually zero cost

I wouldn't be shocked to see BTC drop to $35k during the summer.
He must be playing some 4D chess, because, at quick glance, it makes no sense...

Tesla acquired BTC at the beginning of February, at around 45K. Why just get rid of 10%, at a profit, then go on a hate campaign on Twitter, thus shooting down BTC value, if your goal is to benefit? The price right now is hovering around the same mark and if news coming out of them selling, it will probably drop even further, putting their position in the red.

I understand some folks here want to see some obvious, simple financial gain here, but the facts so far don't line up with that hypothesis. There must be some other intent we're not really privy to.

Also, if Tesla was to buy DOGE, why would they pump beforehand, instead of simply acquiring rapidly, before having to declare anything?
1- Take position in DOGE.
2- Have Elon then start a love campaign and involve himself in the community. Price goes up.
3- Profit by selling small parts, as needed, to pad results numbers.
That would make more sense.
That's assuming he thought of all of this in advance.

He probably didn't even get the idea until a few weeks ago.

And I don't think he's motivated by profit as much as ego.

He realized he'd love to have his own money.
Yeah I bet the actual reason is a lot simpler than 4D chess. He probably just has narcissistic personality disorder and he found that he cannot control bitcoin or take credit for it, but he CAN control Dogecoin (and get credit for Dogecoin's rise). And he can't handle getting called out for being wrong on some very simple crypto attributes. Simple as that. So he's rage quitting BTC in favor of DOGE. Probably that's the same underlying reason for why he called the lead rescuer of the kids from the Thai caves a "pedo"--because that diver and others actually saved the kids while his hilariously stupid submersible stunt was a total failure. Just a narcissist lashing out.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by OohLaLa »

Well, now you're talking about personal psychological motives... That's not what folks have been going on about recently.

As for his personal investments, nobody knows. It's very possible he has his own, nicely padded crypto wallets and making bank on all this. :confused

EDIT: that pedo debacle was great... so childish and petty, all against a backdrop of stranded, poor kids. lol
Last edited by OohLaLa on Sun May 16, 2021 6:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by langlands »

Part of Elon's popularity is that he's sort of a loose cannon. Some of the most viral celebrities on social media understand that you need to be credibly "authentic." I only mean authentic in the weak sense that you are willing to say things off the cuff and unplanned, not that you necessarily always say what you actually believe. Basically, you're willing to be your own PR. If everything you say seems premeditated and filtered, it's hard to build populist support.

If Elon engaged in an obvious pump and dump with Bitcoin, it would be a complete failure for Tesla and SpaceX. Maybe he makes $5 billion off the trade for Tesla and in the process completely trashes his reputation with the crypto community forever. I mean, he's probably trashed his reputation with the bitcoin community, but he probably doesn't care. Eth/other coin investors are secretly smiling and seeing what he does next. Now, he has the reputation as someone who got into Bitcoin because he was interested, and now on a whim has lost interest, but is still interested in the crypto space as a whole. This is all wholly consistent with his fickle nature and now he's successfully entered himself into the crypto conversation. For example, if he suddenly thinks smart contracts and DeFi are a good idea, people will listen.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by watchnerd »

langlands wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 6:07 pm For example, if he suddenly thinks smart contracts and DeFi are a good idea, people will listen.
Yeah, it may be good for the crypto space overall, but maybe not so great for any coin he decides to hate on.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by txhill »

langlands wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 6:07 pm Part of Elon's popularity is that he's sort of a loose cannon. Some of the most viral celebrities on social media understand that you need to be credibly "authentic." I only mean authentic in the weak sense that you are willing to say things off the cuff and unplanned, not that you necessarily always say what you actually believe. Basically, you're willing to be your own PR. If everything you say seems premeditated and filtered, it's hard to build populist support.

If Elon engaged in an obvious pump and dump with Bitcoin, it would be a complete failure for Tesla and SpaceX. Maybe he makes $5 billion off the trade for Tesla and in the process completely trashes his reputation with the crypto community forever. Now, he has the reputation as someone who got into Bitcoin because he was interested, and now on a whim has lost interest, but is still interested in the crypto space as a whole. This is all wholly consistent with his fickle nature and now he's successfully entered himself into the crypto conversation. For example, if he suddenly thinks smart contracts and DeFi are a good idea, people will listen.
Oh yeah don't get me wrong. If someone is going to kick humanity's butt straight into the space age it pretty much has to be someone as fickle and crazy as him. No one normal can pull off what he did / is doing. We live in Elon's world and he loves to prove that.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by RobLyons »

Elon is just pumping and dumping like it's his day job. And people are making / losing money off meme coins. It's fascinating to me this whole crypto movement. Can't wait to see what happens in the upcoming years. Will it tank? Will it blow up?
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by decapod10 »

RobLyons wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 6:42 pm Elon is just pumping and dumping like it's his day job. And people are making / losing money off meme coins. It's fascinating to me this whole crypto movement. Can't wait to see what happens in the upcoming years. Will it tank? Will it blow up?
It will be an interesting movie one way or another, no matter what happens
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Kookaburra »

I always feel better watching crypto tank. Not sure why. Teehee
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by decapod10 »

langlands wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 6:07 pm Part of Elon's popularity is that he's sort of a loose cannon. Some of the most viral celebrities on social media understand that you need to be credibly "authentic." I only mean authentic in the weak sense that you are willing to say things off the cuff and unplanned, not that you necessarily always say what you actually believe. Basically, you're willing to be your own PR. If everything you say seems premeditated and filtered, it's hard to build populist support.

If Elon engaged in an obvious pump and dump with Bitcoin, it would be a complete failure for Tesla and SpaceX. Maybe he makes $5 billion off the trade for Tesla and in the process completely trashes his reputation with the crypto community forever. I mean, he's probably trashed his reputation with the bitcoin community, but he probably doesn't care. Eth/other coin investors are secretly smiling and seeing what he does next. Now, he has the reputation as someone who got into Bitcoin because he was interested, and now on a whim has lost interest, but is still interested in the crypto space as a whole. This is all wholly consistent with his fickle nature and now he's successfully entered himself into the crypto conversation. For example, if he suddenly thinks smart contracts and DeFi are a good idea, people will listen.
Seems unlikely he will try to wade into DeFi and smart contract blockchain. Those cryptos have very strong leaders. ETH has Vitalik, ADA has Hockinson, Binance has CZ, etc. There's no way Elon can win a debate in crypto vs Vitalik, no way anyone will believe Elon is "working with Vitalik" to reduce transaction fees. BTC and Doge are more convenient targets.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Kookaburra »

Tempted, but naw. Deleted
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by langlands »

decapod10 wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 9:03 pm
langlands wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 6:07 pm Part of Elon's popularity is that he's sort of a loose cannon. Some of the most viral celebrities on social media understand that you need to be credibly "authentic." I only mean authentic in the weak sense that you are willing to say things off the cuff and unplanned, not that you necessarily always say what you actually believe. Basically, you're willing to be your own PR. If everything you say seems premeditated and filtered, it's hard to build populist support.

If Elon engaged in an obvious pump and dump with Bitcoin, it would be a complete failure for Tesla and SpaceX. Maybe he makes $5 billion off the trade for Tesla and in the process completely trashes his reputation with the crypto community forever. I mean, he's probably trashed his reputation with the bitcoin community, but he probably doesn't care. Eth/other coin investors are secretly smiling and seeing what he does next. Now, he has the reputation as someone who got into Bitcoin because he was interested, and now on a whim has lost interest, but is still interested in the crypto space as a whole. This is all wholly consistent with his fickle nature and now he's successfully entered himself into the crypto conversation. For example, if he suddenly thinks smart contracts and DeFi are a good idea, people will listen.
Seems unlikely he will try to wade into DeFi and smart contract blockchain. Those cryptos have very strong leaders. ETH has Vitalik, ADA has Hockinson, Binance has CZ, etc. There's no way Elon can win a debate in crypto vs Vitalik, no way anyone will believe Elon is "working with Vitalik" to reduce transaction fees. BTC and Doge are more convenient targets.
It sort of depends on what he's trying to do. If he is just a narcissist who's trying to bully the crypto community, then yes there are better (easier) targets. But I don't see why things have to play out so adversarially. Mark Cuban has said positive things about ethereum in relation to bitcoin. Elon seems like a pretty good businessman with a modicum of vision. If he sees ethereum's future, I don't see why he wouldn't work with Vitalik. And by "work with," I mean that he has tons of money and is willing to really throw it around. Vitalik has the talent. Also, don't forget that Vitalik got started on a Thiel fellowship and that Thiel thinks very highly of Elon. Who knows what goes on in those circles but I wouldn't be surprised if they talk or are perhaps even friendly with each other.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by JonnyDVM »

So is this the massive sell off everyone has prophesied or is this just another temporary dip? It’s hard to tell. 🤔
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by bberris »

Kookaburra wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 8:35 pm I always feel better watching crypto tank. Not sure why. Teehee
I know why. Because I'm tired of being told how old I am.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

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This is a thread to discuss cryptocurrency. Several disrespectful posts related to Elon Musk have been deleted. Stay focused on investing.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Gadget »

JonnyDVM wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 6:29 am So is this the massive sell off everyone has prophesied or is this just another temporary dip? It’s hard to tell. 🤔
Temporary dips and falling knives usually look pretty similar in investing...
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by watchnerd »

JonnyDVM wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 6:29 am So is this the massive sell off everyone has prophesied or is this just another temporary dip? It’s hard to tell. 🤔
I have no idea.

30% dips are certainly not unusual for the crypto market.

But other than for entertainment, I don't really need an opinion -- since I'm holding at market weight, if it goes down, that's what the market wanted.

But if I were going to make a speculative guess...

As long as monetary policy is super loose and bond yields are unappealing, crypto will have some attraction.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by txhill »

watchnerd wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 9:18 am
JonnyDVM wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 6:29 am So is this the massive sell off everyone has prophesied or is this just another temporary dip? It’s hard to tell. 🤔
I have no idea.

30% dips are certainly not unusual for the crypto market.

But other than for entertainment, I don't really need an opinion -- since I'm holding at market weight, if it goes down, that's what the market wanted.

But if I were going to make a speculative guess...

As long as monetary policy is super loose and bond yields are unappealing, crypto will have some attraction.
That's my view as well. As for dealing with the dips... I also usually am all for staying as fully invested as possible, but with crypto's extreme volatility, I wonder whether it makes sense to keep some cash available with open buy orders at lower limits. I've quite often slept through large dips, including last night :)
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by YRT70 »

BTC now close to 42.300. ETH 3160.

How is a bear market defined in crypto?
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by txhill »

YRT70 wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 12:30 pm BTC now close to 42.300. ETH 3160.

How is a bear market defined in crypto?
The 2017 bull market had 6 corrections of 30%+. The current 35% pullback is the 4th and largest such pullback during this 2020/2021 bull market. I think we have to see a much deeper fall before we call the bull market officially over, but we could be seeing that happen now. A lot of folks see $35k as a real possibility as more positions get deleveraged, with a possibility that the bull market then continues from there. But who knows... https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-bigges ... ck-of-2021
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by watchnerd »

YRT70 wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 12:30 pm BTC now close to 42.300. ETH 3160.

How is a bear market defined in crypto?
I honestly don't know if there is a definition.

>50% drop?

BTC <$32k?
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by surfstar »

SpaceX can still "go to the moon" while crypto goes to Pets.com cemetery.

The more crypto gets popular, the more "investors" that get burned. Can easily become a self-fulfilling death spiral. :D :twisted:
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by banook »

watchnerd wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 12:36 pm
YRT70 wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 12:30 pm BTC now close to 42.300. ETH 3160.

How is a bear market defined in crypto?
I honestly don't know if there is a definition.

>50% drop?

BTC <$32k?
>50% drop is generally a "bear market".
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by watchnerd »

surfstar wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 12:41 pm SpaceX can still "go to the moon" while crypto goes to Pets.com cemetery.

The more crypto gets popular, the more "investors" that get burned. Can easily become a self-fulfilling death spiral. :D :twisted:
Anything is possible.

Long odds pay out well because they're super duper risky.

You don't get 10x in a few years without *significant* risk.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by HomerJ »

watchnerd wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 12:52 pmYou don't get 10x in a few years without *significant* risk.
See, when people read this, all they see is the 10x. Because that's a number, and the risk is undefined.

A better way to say it is "You don't get 10x in a few years without a risk of losing 100%"

(even that's not great... That 10x is all humans ever want to focus on)
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by decapod10 »

YRT70 wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 12:30 pm BTC now close to 42.300. ETH 3160.

How is a bear market defined in crypto?
Also consider ETH is still up 30-35% over the last month. Things move so fast and are so volatile it's hard to know what a bear market really is.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by watchnerd »

HomerJ wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 12:58 pm
See, when people read this, all they see is the 10x. Because that's a number, and the risk is undefined.

A better way to say it is "You don't get 10x in a few years without a risk of losing 100%"

(even that's not great... That 10x is all humans ever want to focus on)
I would call losing 100% significant. ;)

Crypto isn't a case of:

"Only put in money you can afford to never touch for 10 years"

It's:

"Only put in money you can afford to completely lose forever"
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by txhill »

decapod10 wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 1:00 pm
YRT70 wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 12:30 pm BTC now close to 42.300. ETH 3160.

How is a bear market defined in crypto?
Also consider ETH is still up 30-35% over the last month. Things move so fast and are so volatile it's hard to know what a bear market really is.
Yeah even at ETH's new low, it's multiples above where I started buying. Getting perilously close to my average buy though, since I've been continually buying :)
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by watchnerd »

txhill wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 1:03 pm
decapod10 wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 1:00 pm
YRT70 wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 12:30 pm BTC now close to 42.300. ETH 3160.

How is a bear market defined in crypto?
Also consider ETH is still up 30-35% over the last month. Things move so fast and are so volatile it's hard to know what a bear market really is.
Yeah even at ETH's new low, it's multiples above where I started buying. Getting perilously close to my average buy though, since I've been continually buying :)
I'm at about -$18,000 right now
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by txhill »

watchnerd wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 1:06 pm
txhill wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 1:03 pm
decapod10 wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 1:00 pm
YRT70 wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 12:30 pm BTC now close to 42.300. ETH 3160.

How is a bear market defined in crypto?
Also consider ETH is still up 30-35% over the last month. Things move so fast and are so volatile it's hard to know what a bear market really is.
Yeah even at ETH's new low, it's multiples above where I started buying. Getting perilously close to my average buy though, since I've been continually buying :)
I'm at about -$18,000 right now
I'm only one tweet away from being in the red, and I am 100% certain that elon is not done tweeting about crypto... :sharebeer
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Aaand...it'sgone »

txhill wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 1:03 pm
decapod10 wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 1:00 pm
YRT70 wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 12:30 pm BTC now close to 42.300. ETH 3160.

How is a bear market defined in crypto?
Also consider ETH is still up 30-35% over the last month. Things move so fast and are so volatile it's hard to know what a bear market really is.
Yeah even at ETH's new low, it's multiples above where I started buying. Getting perilously close to my average buy though, since I've been continually buying :)
Still up 150% on ETH in main account. But regret buying more to stake on Coinbase last week. :oops:
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by watchnerd »

Aaand...it'sgone wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 1:12 pm

Still up 150% on ETH in main account. But regret buying more to stake on Coinbase last week. :oops:
Think of it this way:

Holding crypto gets you all the action of a 3X leveraged ETF like UPRO, but without the leverage cost.

It's like 7X beta exposure on the cheap.

;)
Last edited by watchnerd on Mon May 17, 2021 1:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by danbdzs »

I feel this correction / crash is precisely what we were all expecting...?
In my opinion it's a bit underwhelming.
Those of us willing to put some skin in the game should know (expect) that it can go much much lower.

And also that it can simply never go back to new ATH
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Texanbybirth »

Sorry everyone, I put $500 each on BTC and ETH on 5/12 @ 8pm. You can be sure I'm the cause of all of you losing money. So far I've lost $170.

Silver lining: I'm re-learning why I said in 2017 I wouldn't invest in crypto again. At least this time I'm not going to sell because I can "afford" to lose the money.
watchnerd wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 1:26 pm
Aaand...it'sgone wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 1:12 pm

Still up 150% on ETH in main account. But regret buying more to stake on Coinbase last week. :oops:
Think of it this way:

Holding crypto gets you all the action of a 3X leveraged ETF like UPRO, but without the leverage cost.

;)
I also own UPRO and TMF, but at least I'm WAY up in that bet right now.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by watchnerd »

danbdzs wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 1:27 pm I feel this correction / crash is precisely what we were all expecting...?
In my opinion it's a bit underwhelming.
Those of us willing to put some skin in the game should know (expect) that it can go much much lower.

And also that it can simply never go back to new ATH
Some BHers were posting pretty nutso numbers.

$100k ETH was posted at one point.

I'm making no predictions, but I think this is a healthy reality check, at a minimum, for the moonies.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by watchnerd »

Texanbybirth wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 1:31 pm

I also own UPRO and TMF, but at least I'm WAY up in that bet right now.
What's the ratio of your ETH : UPRO holding?
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Schlabba »

danbdzs wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 1:27 pm I feel this correction / crash is precisely what we were all expecting...?
In my opinion it's a bit underwhelming.
Those of us willing to put some skin in the game should know (expect) that it can go much much lower.

And also that it can simply never go back to new ATH
Its not over yet :happy
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Texanbybirth »

watchnerd wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 1:32 pm
Texanbybirth wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 1:31 pm

I also own UPRO and TMF, but at least I'm WAY up in that bet right now.
What's the ratio of your ETH : UPRO holding?
That seems like a strange ratio, but because I'm a glutton for punishment it's roughly 24:1 UPRO:ETH as of last update.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by watchnerd »

Schlabba wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 1:33 pm

Its not over yet :happy
I think end of July / early August is going to be really interesting time.

That's when EIP 1559 hits for Ethereum.

Will that cause a flippening and ETH to take share from BTC?

Will it bring new money into the market?

Will it be a big flop?

Oh, and around that same time, DOGE will get listed on Coinbase.

And for the wild card...how will inflation numbers look?
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by watchnerd »

Texanbybirth wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 1:37 pm
That seems like a strange ratio, but because I'm a glutton for punishment it's roughly 24:1 UPRO:ETH as of last update.
The reason I asked:

Risk Parity of UPRO vs ETHE

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/opt ... ints=false
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by watchnerd »

Schlabba wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 1:33 pm
danbdzs wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 1:27 pm I feel this correction / crash is precisely what we were all expecting...?
In my opinion it's a bit underwhelming.
Those of us willing to put some skin in the game should know (expect) that it can go much much lower.

And also that it can simply never go back to new ATH
Its not over yet :happy
"As Newbies Panic in Latest Bitcoin Correction, Old Pros Appear to Buy on the Dip"
The “short-term holder SOPR,” or STH-SOPR that filters for coins younger than 155 days, dropped well below the key threshold of 1, meaning that newer market entrants appear to have “panic-sold” and realized “significant” losses on their invesments, according to Glassnode.
https://www.coindesk.com/newbies-panic- ... uy-the-dip
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by txhill »

watchnerd wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 1:54 pm
Schlabba wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 1:33 pm
danbdzs wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 1:27 pm I feel this correction / crash is precisely what we were all expecting...?
In my opinion it's a bit underwhelming.
Those of us willing to put some skin in the game should know (expect) that it can go much much lower.

And also that it can simply never go back to new ATH
Its not over yet :happy
"As Newbies Panic in Latest Bitcoin Correction, Old Pros Appear to Buy on the Dip"
The “short-term holder SOPR,” or STH-SOPR that filters for coins younger than 155 days, dropped well below the key threshold of 1, meaning that newer market entrants appear to have “panic-sold” and realized “significant” losses on their invesments, according to Glassnode.
https://www.coindesk.com/newbies-panic- ... uy-the-dip
Being able to see every transaction on the public blockchain is so much fun...
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by HomerJ »

txhill wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 1:57 pm
watchnerd wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 1:54 pm
Schlabba wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 1:33 pm
danbdzs wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 1:27 pm I feel this correction / crash is precisely what we were all expecting...?
In my opinion it's a bit underwhelming.
Those of us willing to put some skin in the game should know (expect) that it can go much much lower.

And also that it can simply never go back to new ATH
Its not over yet :happy
"As Newbies Panic in Latest Bitcoin Correction, Old Pros Appear to Buy on the Dip"
The “short-term holder SOPR,” or STH-SOPR that filters for coins younger than 155 days, dropped well below the key threshold of 1, meaning that newer market entrants appear to have “panic-sold” and realized “significant” losses on their invesments, according to Glassnode.
https://www.coindesk.com/newbies-panic- ... uy-the-dip
Being able to see every transaction on the public blockchain is so much fun...
Is it fun that a bunch of newer market entrants have realized significant losses? Continually pumping up crypto is dangerous and will hurt a lot of people in the end who cannot afford the losses.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by canadianbacon »

watchnerd wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 1:26 pm Holding crypto gets you all the action of a 3X leveraged ETF like UPRO, but without the leverage cost.
I'd rather pay the leverage cost and know I'm not contributing to environmental devastation.
Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by watchnerd »

canadianbacon wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 2:21 pm

I'd rather pay the leverage cost and know I'm not contributing to environmental devastation.
Now I'm wondering if there are geared ESG funds.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by OohLaLa »

HomerJ wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 2:08 pm
txhill wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 1:57 pm
The “short-term holder SOPR,” or STH-SOPR that filters for coins younger than 155 days, dropped well below the key threshold of 1, meaning that newer market entrants appear to have “panic-sold” and realized “significant” losses on their invesments, according to Glassnode.
Being able to see every transaction on the public blockchain is so much fun...
Is it fun that a bunch of newer market entrants have realized significant losses? Continually pumping up crypto is dangerous and will hurt a lot of people in the end who cannot afford the losses.
It definitely is a plus to have that level of transparency... and it's indeed good for newbies to incur some level of loss. Most people underestimate their risk aversion and it takes baptism by fire to set proper expectations. This is especially true for a lot of the folks you see jumping into crypto and having 0 prior experience with investment.
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