Crypto mania !

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
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PerchiN
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by PerchiN »

hilink73 wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 1:04 pm
PerchiN wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 7:13 pm
mikejuss wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 6:59 pm What is the forum's consensus on the safest way to buy cryptocurrency? Coinbase, Gemini, Robinhood?
I use Coinbase pro for the lower fees vs regular Coinbase. You can always transfer it to coinbase for free as well if you're interested in staking some of your crypto there.

I would avoid Robinhood as I read that you don't actually own the crypto you buy on their platform. You basically just trade it and can't transfer out.
kraken.com is much cheaper than CB pro, I think.
Signed up last night and got verified, but the depositing process is much more complicated than coinbase/pro :( so I stopped looking into it for now. I've read that some people are just buying on coinbase and transferring to kraken which I may do.

Main reason why I want to use Kraken is to buy Polkadot (DOT) though which coinbase and binance.us don't have on their exchange yet.

If I may ask, what is everyone holding? I just started to research crypto after all these years to see what the craze is about...fascinating technology and I'm pretty bummed I didn't put the time to learn about this earlier.

I'm currently holding ETH and ALGO right now, but also looking at ADA and DOT as well. The staking for ALGO is sooooo easy, love it.
Freefun
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by Freefun »

Kookaburra wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 2:10 pm I’m curious how cryptocurrency appeal fares across different age groups/generations. Is there anyone on here over the age of 50 who owns crypto? If so, what % of portfolio and which coin(s)?
I have some but it's not a significant amount. I'm more interested in investing and building apps such as self-sovereign identify than the coins themselves. I have some BTC and ETH and a few others. I believe blockchain technology has a big future but I don't think significant benefits will accrue until some challenges are alleviated primarily around regulation, scalability and interoperability.
Remember when you wanted what you currently have?
decapod10
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by decapod10 »

JBTX wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 2:36 pm Economist article on govt issued digital currency.


https://www.economist.com/leaders/2021/ ... hat-matter

One could take this several ways. It could mean the end of usefulness of alternative coins. Or, it accelerates digital finance, and as such legitimizes it, and established coins like Bitcoin and Ether stay popular as a store of value against depreciating govt currencies.

This is still nothing but a speculative narrative, but it is the first one I've seen that could plausibly attach real value to crypto currency.
I can't read the article due to paywall, but I assume it's talking about governments creating CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currencies). My view is that CBDCs would likely accelerate digital finance rather that squash it, but as you said just my personal speculation. If you've ever used Ethereum, you realize how much easier it is to stay in the cryptospace rather than constantly swapping in and out from crypto to fiat/USD. A legal tender cryptocurrency makes it much easier to just keep your assets in the cryptospace and allows increased confidence in banking within the cryptospace. Business would be much more likely to accept payments in government issued cryptocurrency as well.
worthit
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by worthit »

banook wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 1:48 pm
worthit wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 11:40 am

I hear you watchnerd. I went through it once and came to the same conclusion. Lumpsum is the way to go but a lot of folks are suggesting DCA.

Why do think DCA is a bit safer than LSI? Can you elaborate please?
Certainly back in 2017, LSI was not the way to go for me - but I did. Call it a failure/learning. I LSI'ed into BTC back in the first run/mania. It was. An experience. LSI can be a "safer" less bureaucratic route - fewer rows on the csv - for some people. I am not knocking it. But even if I view crypto as a hobby/sandbox now, the DCA behavior might have been engraved by that experience/feelings at the time. I can say similar things about other hobbies, where I bit off more than I could chew the first go round (at least 2 real world analogies of "I'm never doing that again" outside of crypto, and "next time I will do this"). Even if you did the math for me on my own "investment" here - and showed me LSI vs DCA if held for period X is equivalent, I'd not give in to this rational information. It's DCA behavior because of 2017.
Thanks. Makes sense.

I was just wondering if there was any evidence based data out there. Couple of my friends who are big time believers and owners of crypto have had the same experience. Very interesting.
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watchnerd
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by watchnerd »

Kookaburra wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 2:10 pm I’m curious how cryptocurrency appeal fares across different age groups/generations. Is there anyone on here over the age of 50 who owns crypto? If so, what % of portfolio and which coin(s)?
Well, I'm 51.

I might be one of the few 10+ year Boglehead members who admits to having a sizable crypto allocation and hold it specifically as part of my asset allocation strategy.

And I think it's starting to brand me as a bit of a heretic.

But, I'm probably an outlier. Not only do I work for a big tech megacorp, I spent 15 years working in venture backed open source startups in Silicon Valley. There are a lot of parallels between my experience in open source startups, venture capital, and the crypto space.

But to your broader question, there was a Gemini paper assessing crypto attitudes among UK investors:

https://www.gemini.com/state-of-uk-crypto

From that:
Reinforcing earlier studies, most current or previous cryptocurrency investors fall within three main age categories: 18-24
(27.5%), 25-34 (33.1%), and 35-44 (24.2%). However, the average age of prospective investors in the UK is older than previously thought and spread somewhat evenly between 18-54. In fact, 20.0% of those interested in crypto investments are 45-54 and another 16.7% are over 55. Despite this, the vast majority of those who expressed no interest in cryptocurrency investments at all are over 55 (57.0%).
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OohLaLa
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by OohLaLa »

worthit wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 3:29 pm
banook wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 1:48 pm
worthit wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 11:40 am

I hear you watchnerd. I went through it once and came to the same conclusion. Lumpsum is the way to go but a lot of folks are suggesting DCA.

Why do think DCA is a bit safer than LSI? Can you elaborate please?
Certainly back in 2017, LSI was not the way to go for me - but I did. Call it a failure/learning. I LSI'ed into BTC back in the first run/mania. It was. An experience. LSI can be a "safer" less bureaucratic route - fewer rows on the csv - for some people. I am not knocking it. But even if I view crypto as a hobby/sandbox now, the DCA behavior might have been engraved by that experience/feelings at the time. I can say similar things about other hobbies, where I bit off more than I could chew the first go round (at least 2 real world analogies of "I'm never doing that again" outside of crypto, and "next time I will do this"). Even if you did the math for me on my own "investment" here - and showed me LSI vs DCA if held for period X is equivalent, I'd not give in to this rational information. It's DCA behavior because of 2017.
Thanks. Makes sense.

I was just wondering if there was any evidence based data out there. Couple of my friends who are big time believers and owners of crypto have had the same experience. Very interesting.
I admit fully that this is not evidence-based but my personal take:
- If it was any old stock, bond, or even a leveraged fund, I would lump-sum without hesitation. The volatility is just not that bad. In fact, from what I recall, there were already studies on it being better for the usual types of assets (BTW: does anybody have that study, handy?)
- with what I've seen in the crypto space, in my mind, there is a much higher probability of lump-summing burning you when something goes up 20% one day, then drops 10%, then goes back up 10%, spikes, then crashes... you get the point... This isn't just crypto; anything that would be so extremely volatile in short spans would be eligible.

This just compounds when I am actually closing one stock position in order to open new ones in crypto. Not only can I get burnt on selling the stock, but I can get burnt on the crypto purchases. I exaggerate a bit with the "burnt", but I feel like you get a more "in-the-middle" price in both directions, instead of potentially getting highs or lows.

Instead, I ease out of the stock as we stay around earnings, and ease into ETH + BTC ETFs (FYI: investing from Canada).
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watchnerd
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by watchnerd »

OohLaLa wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 4:25 pm
I admit fully that this is not evidence-based but my personal take:
- If it was any old stock, bond, or even a leveraged fund, I would lump-sum without hesitation. The volatility is just not that bad. In fact, from what I recall, there were already studies on it being better for the usual types of assets (BTW: does anybody have that study, handy?)
- with what I've seen in the crypto space, in my mind, there is a much higher probability of lump-summing burning you when something goes up 20% one day, then drops 10%, then goes back up 10%, spikes, then crashes... you get the point... This isn't just crypto; anything that would be so extremely volatile in short spans would be eligible.

This just compounds when I am actually closing one stock position in order to open new ones in crypto. Not only can I get burnt on selling the stock, but I can get burnt on the crypto purchases. I exaggerate a bit with the "burnt", but I feel like you get a more "in-the-middle" price in both directions, instead of potentially getting highs or lows.

Instead, I ease out of the stock as we stay around earnings, and ease into ETH + BTC ETFs (FYI: investing from Canada).
But over a 5 year holding period, how much does the near term volatility matter?

I'm not playing 'trader' with my crypto holdings, and I expect any of my gains to come from long term cycles.

Also, because there is a lack of valuation metrics, it's hard to know if something is 'cheap' or 'expensive'.
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OohLaLa
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by OohLaLa »

PerchiN wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 3:05 pm Signed up last night and got verified, but the depositing process is much more complicated than coinbase/pro :( so I stopped looking into it for now. I've read that some people are just buying on coinbase and transferring to kraken which I may do.

Main reason why I want to use Kraken is to buy Polkadot (DOT) though which coinbase and binance.us don't have on their exchange yet.

If I may ask, what is everyone holding? I just started to research crypto after all these years to see what the craze is about...fascinating technology and I'm pretty bummed I didn't put the time to learn about this earlier.

I'm currently holding ETH and ALGO right now, but also looking at ADA and DOT as well. The staking for ALGO is sooooo easy, love it.
I think I am at a relatively similar stage as you, reading more and more about the tech and slowly moving in some funds.

I have a mix of more serious projects and cr@% :mrgreen: :
ETH (most promising, in my mind)
BTC
DOT
looking to add a bit into LINK + ADA, as well
-----border between respectable and seedy, despicable, dirty coins----- :mrgreen:
XRP
DOGE (evolve into SHIB???)
Last edited by OohLaLa on Tue May 11, 2021 4:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
k1dpsu
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by k1dpsu »

Just keep things simple and limited to the blue chips - ETH and BTC. Set regular weekly buys for yourself with money that you are comfortable losing.

You won't make insane gains with ETH and BTC like you can with new alts, but these two are a safe bet (or as safe as you can get in this space).

I adopted this strategy 4 years ago and I am currently contemplating retiring.
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OohLaLa
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by OohLaLa »

watchnerd wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 4:33 pm
OohLaLa wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 4:25 pm
I admit fully that this is not evidence-based but my personal take:
- If it was any old stock, bond, or even a leveraged fund, I would lump-sum without hesitation. The volatility is just not that bad. In fact, from what I recall, there were already studies on it being better for the usual types of assets (BTW: does anybody have that study, handy?)
- with what I've seen in the crypto space, in my mind, there is a much higher probability of lump-summing burning you when something goes up 20% one day, then drops 10%, then goes back up 10%, spikes, then crashes... you get the point... This isn't just crypto; anything that would be so extremely volatile in short spans would be eligible.

This just compounds when I am actually closing one stock position in order to open new ones in crypto. Not only can I get burnt on selling the stock, but I can get burnt on the crypto purchases. I exaggerate a bit with the "burnt", but I feel like you get a more "in-the-middle" price in both directions, instead of potentially getting highs or lows.

Instead, I ease out of the stock as we stay around earnings, and ease into ETH + BTC ETFs (FYI: investing from Canada).
But over a 5 year holding period, how much does the near term volatility matter?

I'm not playing 'trader' with my crypto holdings, and I expect any of my gains to come from long term cycles.

Also, because there is a lack of valuation metrics, it's hard to know if something is 'cheap' or 'expensive'.
Oh, definitely agree. If you believe in it long-term, then the difference should be minute, right? The major part of my crypto allocation will be long-term (not DOGE, XRP).

I think it's just easier on the mind, if you don't feel like you are "timing" the jump, then get stuck in a short-term rut. It's a sour way to start your journey when you are at -20% or something like that. :annoyed

If somebody wants to spend time testing this for crypto then have at it. Not that important for me, for DCA across such a short span of time. :beer
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OohLaLa
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by OohLaLa »

k1dpsu wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 4:44 pm Just keep things simple and limited to the blue chips - ETH and BTC. Set regular weekly buys for yourself with money that you are comfortable losing.

You won't make insane gains with ETH and BTC like you can with new alts, but these two are a safe bet (or as safe as you can get in this space).

I adopted this strategy 4 years ago and I am currently contemplating retiring.
I'm afraid us folks late to the party won't get the chance to contemplate like you, anytime soon. haha :wink:

Congrats on the gains, btw! Good to have the freedom to ask that kind of question. :beer
k1dpsu
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by k1dpsu »

OohLaLa wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 4:51 pm
k1dpsu wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 4:44 pm Just keep things simple and limited to the blue chips - ETH and BTC. Set regular weekly buys for yourself with money that you are comfortable losing.

You won't make insane gains with ETH and BTC like you can with new alts, but these two are a safe bet (or as safe as you can get in this space).

I adopted this strategy 4 years ago and I am currently contemplating retiring.
I'm afraid us folks late to the party won't get the chance to contemplate like you, anytime soon. haha :wink:

Congrats on the gains, btw! Good to have the freedom to ask that kind of question. :beer
In all seriousness ... this is not a good time to be buying crypto. There are defined cycles and this bull market is well underway. Things are going to get insane but we have less than a year left in the cycle. You will wind up paying short-term capital gains on anything that really appreciates. I wanted to avoid the short term capital gains back in 2018 and a considerable amount of paper profits evaporate. I just continued to hold and buy add to my position during the bear market. This is where you will be able to make life changing amounts of money. Research and find good projects during bear markets. Do it when no one is talking about crypto at all.

And, when cycles end ... alts never really come back. Alts are doing well now but many of the old coins are nowhere near their BTC value from 4-5 years ago.

This is the most useful Twitter thread that you will ever find about this space:

https://twitter.com/SecretsOfCrypto/sta ... 98720?s=20
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watchnerd
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by watchnerd »

k1dpsu wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 4:58 pm You will wind up paying short-term capital gains on anything that really appreciates.
Not on the ETH and BTC I hold in IRAs. ;)

I have some ETH and BTC at Coinbase, but mostly it's the alt coins.
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JBTX
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by JBTX »

More coins for dogs.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dogec ... =home-page


One virtual, China-based cryptocurrency, Shiba Inu, which was minted recently and modeled as a “fun” crypto a la dogecoin DOGEUSD, -1.21%, has seen its value surge in recent weeks along with dogecoin and some complain that it is having a negative effect on the broader crypto market.

The coin, which is sometimes described as an alternative, if not a rival, to dogecoin, has surged more than 1,500% in the past seven days. Even with this rally it was last changing hands at $0.00003296, according to crypto data site CoinMarketCap. com.



SHIB, which presumably derives its name from the fact that dogecoin is pegged to the image of a Shiba Inu dog, is now the 19th largest crypto in the world.
Dogecoin stands as the fourth largest crypto, according to CoinMarketCap.com.
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watchnerd
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by watchnerd »

JBTX wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 5:06 pm More coins for dogs.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dogec ... =home-page


One virtual, China-based cryptocurrency, Shiba Inu, which was minted recently and modeled as a “fun” crypto a la dogecoin DOGEUSD, -1.21%, has seen its value surge in recent weeks along with dogecoin and some complain that it is having a negative effect on the broader crypto market.

The coin, which is sometimes described as an alternative, if not a rival, to dogecoin, has surged more than 1,500% in the past seven days. Even with this rally it was last changing hands at $0.00003296, according to crypto data site CoinMarketCap. com.



SHIB, which presumably derives its name from the fact that dogecoin is pegged to the image of a Shiba Inu dog, is now the 19th largest crypto in the world.
Dogecoin stands as the fourth largest crypto, according to CoinMarketCap.com.
Where have you been?

That's been going on for a few days now. ;)
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Marseille07
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by Marseille07 »

watchnerd wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 5:10 pm
JBTX wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 5:06 pm More coins for dogs.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dogec ... =home-page


One virtual, China-based cryptocurrency, Shiba Inu, which was minted recently and modeled as a “fun” crypto a la dogecoin DOGEUSD, -1.21%, has seen its value surge in recent weeks along with dogecoin and some complain that it is having a negative effect on the broader crypto market.

The coin, which is sometimes described as an alternative, if not a rival, to dogecoin, has surged more than 1,500% in the past seven days. Even with this rally it was last changing hands at $0.00003296, according to crypto data site CoinMarketCap. com.



SHIB, which presumably derives its name from the fact that dogecoin is pegged to the image of a Shiba Inu dog, is now the 19th largest crypto in the world.
Dogecoin stands as the fourth largest crypto, according to CoinMarketCap.com.
Where have you been?

That's been going on for a few days now. ;)
But do you own any, is the question.
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OohLaLa
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by OohLaLa »

k1dpsu wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 4:58 pm In all seriousness ... this is not a good time to be buying crypto. There are defined cycles and this bull market is well underway. Things are going to get insane but we have less than a year left in the cycle. You will wind up paying short-term capital gains on anything that really appreciates. I wanted to avoid the short term capital gains back in 2018 and a considerable amount of paper profits evaporate. I just continued to hold and buy add to my position during the bear market. This is where you will be able to make life changing amounts of money. Research and find good projects during bear markets. Do it when no one is talking about crypto at all.

And, when cycles end ... alts never really come back. Alts are doing well now but many of the old coins are nowhere near their BTC value from 4-5 years ago.

This is the most useful Twitter thread that you will ever find about this space:

https://twitter.com/SecretsOfCrypto/sta ... 98720?s=20
Yeah, there seem to be cycles strongly tied to the underlying tech (ex: BTC halving). I tried to bring this clear pattern up here, previously, but the only response I received is ridicule, by someone equating it with voodoo and traditional tech analysis (which I don't care about), completely bypassing the uniquenesss of it.

Thanks for the link and thanks for sharing how you dealt with the cycles (adding in during the bear), as it relates to important questions circling in my head: "How do I allocate funds to this, long-term? Simply add it to your total portfolio AA and rebalance regularly? Set aside a set amount and ride it out, no matter what? Should I try to simply jump off temporarily, when we get close to September 1st 2021, even if it means losing out on potential returns during a change from downtrend to uptrend?"

I know that the cycles aren't everything, as other material changes can take place and affect the course of things, but it's hard to ignore something so in your face.
k1dpsu
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by k1dpsu »

OohLaLa wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 5:15 pm
k1dpsu wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 4:58 pm In all seriousness ... this is not a good time to be buying crypto. There are defined cycles and this bull market is well underway. Things are going to get insane but we have less than a year left in the cycle. You will wind up paying short-term capital gains on anything that really appreciates. I wanted to avoid the short term capital gains back in 2018 and a considerable amount of paper profits evaporate. I just continued to hold and buy add to my position during the bear market. This is where you will be able to make life changing amounts of money. Research and find good projects during bear markets. Do it when no one is talking about crypto at all.

And, when cycles end ... alts never really come back. Alts are doing well now but many of the old coins are nowhere near their BTC value from 4-5 years ago.

This is the most useful Twitter thread that you will ever find about this space:

https://twitter.com/SecretsOfCrypto/sta ... 98720?s=20
Yeah, there seem to be cycles strongly tied to the underlying tech (ex: BTC halving). I tried to bring this clear pattern up here, previously, but the only response I received is ridicule, by someone equating it with voodoo and traditional tech analysis (which I don't care about), completely bypassing the uniquenesss of it.

Thanks for the link and thanks for sharing how you dealt with the cycles (adding in during the bear), as it relates to important questions circling in my head: "How do I allocate funds to this, long-term? Simply add it to your total portfolio AA and rebalance regularly? Set aside a set amount and ride it out, no matter what? Should I try to simply jump off temporarily, when we get close to September 1st 2021, even if it means losing out on potential returns during a change from downtrend to uptrend?"

I know that the cycles aren't everything, as other material changes can take place and affect the course of things, but it's hard to ignore something so in your face.
There are clear cycles with this. There always were and there always will be. Look at that Twitter link. It tells you how to play things as coins rotate. You want to be overexposed to BTC when the cycle ends.
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Toons
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by Toons »

Easy Come
Easy Go :wink:
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee
txhill
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by txhill »

k1dpsu wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 5:17 pm
OohLaLa wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 5:15 pm
k1dpsu wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 4:58 pm In all seriousness ... this is not a good time to be buying crypto. There are defined cycles and this bull market is well underway. Things are going to get insane but we have less than a year left in the cycle. You will wind up paying short-term capital gains on anything that really appreciates. I wanted to avoid the short term capital gains back in 2018 and a considerable amount of paper profits evaporate. I just continued to hold and buy add to my position during the bear market. This is where you will be able to make life changing amounts of money. Research and find good projects during bear markets. Do it when no one is talking about crypto at all.

And, when cycles end ... alts never really come back. Alts are doing well now but many of the old coins are nowhere near their BTC value from 4-5 years ago.

This is the most useful Twitter thread that you will ever find about this space:

https://twitter.com/SecretsOfCrypto/sta ... 98720?s=20
Yeah, there seem to be cycles strongly tied to the underlying tech (ex: BTC halving). I tried to bring this clear pattern up here, previously, but the only response I received is ridicule, by someone equating it with voodoo and traditional tech analysis (which I don't care about), completely bypassing the uniquenesss of it.

Thanks for the link and thanks for sharing how you dealt with the cycles (adding in during the bear), as it relates to important questions circling in my head: "How do I allocate funds to this, long-term? Simply add it to your total portfolio AA and rebalance regularly? Set aside a set amount and ride it out, no matter what? Should I try to simply jump off temporarily, when we get close to September 1st 2021, even if it means losing out on potential returns during a change from downtrend to uptrend?"

I know that the cycles aren't everything, as other material changes can take place and affect the course of things, but it's hard to ignore something so in your face.
There are clear cycles with this. There always were and there always will be. Look at that Twitter link. It tells you how to play things as coins rotate. You want to be overexposed to BTC when the cycle ends.
Thanks for the Twitter link. A lot of food for thought since my plan was just to keep buying ETH no matter what. Now I don't know what to do! Maybe have to rethink my approach--I have no interest in playing with alts other than Ether (if that's even considered an alt). It's clear crypto still goes through cycles although the fact that it is so predictable is really bizarre--surely with more institutional money / trading focus on the space the cycles would be different over time. But it sure seems like we are heading toward another peak / crash soon...
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watchnerd
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by watchnerd »

Marseille07 wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 5:12 pm

But do you own any, is the question.
Shiba?

No, it's not available on Coinbase.
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OohLaLa
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by OohLaLa »

k1dpsu wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 5:17 pm There are clear cycles with this. There always were and there always will be. Look at that Twitter link. It tells you how to play things as coins rotate. You want to be overexposed to BTC when the cycle ends.
I will read the rest of the thread by the little Black Mage, later this evening, but it's a super interesting take, so far.
txhill wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 5:29 pm Thanks for the Twitter link. A lot of food for thought since my plan was just to keep buying ETH no matter what. Now I don't know what to do! Maybe have to rethink my approach--I have no interest in playing with alts other than Ether (if that's even considered an alt). It's clear crypto still goes through cycles although the fact that it is so predictable is really bizarre--surely with more institutional money / trading focus on the space the cycles would be different over time. But it sure seems like we are heading toward another peak / crash soon...
Yeah, I have a hard time believing this behavior hasn't been snuffed out... Part of me thinks it's clear-as-day while the other thinks it's too simple and just a coincidence/ temporary (like it usually is).

Btw, history will tell us if it's true. The signs, or not, should be there come September... Ah geez now I sound all "beware the ides of March!" :mrgreen:
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by k1dpsu »

txhill wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 5:29 pm
k1dpsu wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 5:17 pm
OohLaLa wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 5:15 pm
k1dpsu wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 4:58 pm In all seriousness ... this is not a good time to be buying crypto. There are defined cycles and this bull market is well underway. Things are going to get insane but we have less than a year left in the cycle. You will wind up paying short-term capital gains on anything that really appreciates. I wanted to avoid the short term capital gains back in 2018 and a considerable amount of paper profits evaporate. I just continued to hold and buy add to my position during the bear market. This is where you will be able to make life changing amounts of money. Research and find good projects during bear markets. Do it when no one is talking about crypto at all.

And, when cycles end ... alts never really come back. Alts are doing well now but many of the old coins are nowhere near their BTC value from 4-5 years ago.

This is the most useful Twitter thread that you will ever find about this space:

https://twitter.com/SecretsOfCrypto/sta ... 98720?s=20
Yeah, there seem to be cycles strongly tied to the underlying tech (ex: BTC halving). I tried to bring this clear pattern up here, previously, but the only response I received is ridicule, by someone equating it with voodoo and traditional tech analysis (which I don't care about), completely bypassing the uniquenesss of it.

Thanks for the link and thanks for sharing how you dealt with the cycles (adding in during the bear), as it relates to important questions circling in my head: "How do I allocate funds to this, long-term? Simply add it to your total portfolio AA and rebalance regularly? Set aside a set amount and ride it out, no matter what? Should I try to simply jump off temporarily, when we get close to September 1st 2021, even if it means losing out on potential returns during a change from downtrend to uptrend?"

I know that the cycles aren't everything, as other material changes can take place and affect the course of things, but it's hard to ignore something so in your face.
There are clear cycles with this. There always were and there always will be. Look at that Twitter link. It tells you how to play things as coins rotate. You want to be overexposed to BTC when the cycle ends.
Thanks for the Twitter link. A lot of food for thought since my plan was just to keep buying ETH no matter what. Now I don't know what to do! Maybe have to rethink my approach--I have no interest in playing with alts other than Ether (if that's even considered an alt). It's clear crypto still goes through cycles although the fact that it is so predictable is really bizarre--surely with more institutional money / trading focus on the space the cycles would be different over time. But it sure seems like we are heading toward another peak / crash soon...
I am an ETH maximalist. It’s 90% of what I hold. I think that it is going to be the ultimate winner. EIP-1559 and the move to POS. Just keep buying it. I’m still making weekly buys of it. Don’t mess around with the other goofy coins and you will be fine.
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Re: Crypto mania !

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txhill wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 5:29 pm

Thanks for the Twitter link. A lot of food for thought since my plan was just to keep buying ETH no matter what. Now I don't know what to do! Maybe have to rethink my approach--I have no interest in playing with alts other than Ether (if that's even considered an alt). It's clear crypto still goes through cycles although the fact that it is so predictable is really bizarre--surely with more institutional money / trading focus on the space the cycles would be different over time. But it sure seems like we are heading toward another peak / crash soon...
I would expect the cycles to evolve.

And trading strategies, too.

For any trading market, exploits cease to generate excess alpha when they become widely known.

And if ETH really ever really does switch to PoS, it changes the economics.
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Re: Crypto mania !

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k1dpsu wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 5:40 pm

I am an ETH maximalist. It’s 90% of what I hold. I think that it is going to be the ultimate winner. EIP-1559 and the move to POS. Just keep buying it. I’m still making weekly buys of it. Don’t mess around with the other goofy coins and you will be fine.
One winner?

You think if ETH grows enough BTC dies?

Rule #1 of any market:

Beware of people pitching "their book"
Last edited by watchnerd on Tue May 11, 2021 5:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Crypto mania !

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watchnerd wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 5:43 pm
k1dpsu wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 5:40 pm

I am an ETH maximalist. It’s 90% of what I hold. I think that it is going to be the ultimate winner. EIP-1559 and the move to POS. Just keep buying it. I’m still making weekly buys of it. Don’t mess around with the other goofy coins and you will be fine.
One winner?

You think if ETH grows enough BTC dies?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sqcLjcSloXs

EDIT: Yeah, I have a hard time getting behind going 90-100% into one particular choice. Can lead to a land full of milk and honey or one where it gets real hot, real quick.
Last edited by OohLaLa on Tue May 11, 2021 5:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Crypto mania !

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watchnerd wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 5:43 pm
k1dpsu wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 5:40 pm

I am an ETH maximalist. It’s 90% of what I hold. I think that it is going to be the ultimate winner. EIP-1559 and the move to POS. Just keep buying it. I’m still making weekly buys of it. Don’t mess around with the other goofy coins and you will be fine.
One winner?

You think if ETH grows enough BTC dies?
That’s the multi-trillion dollar question.

I can’t imagine BTC going away but if the “flippening” happens BTC takes a negative narrative hit. I’m unsure if that happens this cycle but I expect it to happen. It may signal the top of this cycle. A lot of smart people in the space are saying that.

Unlike BTC, ETH is a productive asset. Can earn staking it, providing liquidity for decentralized exchanges, borrow against it. BTC just sits there. I think that “big money” will be attracted to ETH due to all you can do with it.
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Re: Crypto mania !

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Toons wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 5:23 pm Easy Come
Easy Go :wink:
Easy Go and _FAST_ Go is what I learned the hard way when the Tech Bubble popped and ~$2.5m disappeared before my eyes in less than 15 minutes. Greed can turn into fear with startling quickness. I suspect a new generation will be learning about this fairly soon but I won't try and predict when soon will be.
Adapt or perish
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by watchnerd »

k1dpsu wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 5:49 pm
watchnerd wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 5:43 pm
k1dpsu wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 5:40 pm

I am an ETH maximalist. It’s 90% of what I hold. I think that it is going to be the ultimate winner. EIP-1559 and the move to POS. Just keep buying it. I’m still making weekly buys of it. Don’t mess around with the other goofy coins and you will be fine.
One winner?

You think if ETH grows enough BTC dies?
That’s the multi-trillion dollar question.

I can’t imagine BTC going away but if the “flippening” happens BTC takes a negative narrative hit. I’m unsure if that happens this cycle but I expect it to happen. It may signal the top of this cycle. A lot of smart people in the space are saying that.

Unlike BTC, ETH is a productive asset. Can earn staking it, providing liquidity for decentralized exchanges, borrow against it. BTC just sits there. I think that “big money” will be attracted to ETH due to all you can do with it.
Yes, I think everyone knows those basics.

So if it's a multi coin world, what do you mean by "the ultimate winner"?
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by k1dpsu »

watchnerd wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 5:51 pm
k1dpsu wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 5:49 pm
watchnerd wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 5:43 pm
k1dpsu wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 5:40 pm

I am an ETH maximalist. It’s 90% of what I hold. I think that it is going to be the ultimate winner. EIP-1559 and the move to POS. Just keep buying it. I’m still making weekly buys of it. Don’t mess around with the other goofy coins and you will be fine.
One winner?

You think if ETH grows enough BTC dies?
That’s the multi-trillion dollar question.

I can’t imagine BTC going away but if the “flippening” happens BTC takes a negative narrative hit. I’m unsure if that happens this cycle but I expect it to happen. It may signal the top of this cycle. A lot of smart people in the space are saying that.

Unlike BTC, ETH is a productive asset. Can earn staking it, providing liquidity for decentralized exchanges, borrow against it. BTC just sits there. I think that “big money” will be attracted to ETH due to all you can do with it.
Yes, I think everyone knows those basics.

So if it's a multi coin world, what do you mean by "the ultimate winner"?
The blockchain with the most activity. A blockchain with uses for culture (NFTs) and finance.
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Re: Crypto mania !

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k1dpsu wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 5:54 pm

The blockchain with the most activity. A blockchain with uses for culture (NFTs) and finance.
That might happen.

But the market doesn't seem to be pricing that in yet.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by txhill »

k1dpsu wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 5:54 pm
watchnerd wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 5:51 pm
k1dpsu wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 5:49 pm
watchnerd wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 5:43 pm
k1dpsu wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 5:40 pm

I am an ETH maximalist. It’s 90% of what I hold. I think that it is going to be the ultimate winner. EIP-1559 and the move to POS. Just keep buying it. I’m still making weekly buys of it. Don’t mess around with the other goofy coins and you will be fine.
One winner?

You think if ETH grows enough BTC dies?
That’s the multi-trillion dollar question.

I can’t imagine BTC going away but if the “flippening” happens BTC takes a negative narrative hit. I’m unsure if that happens this cycle but I expect it to happen. It may signal the top of this cycle. A lot of smart people in the space are saying that.

Unlike BTC, ETH is a productive asset. Can earn staking it, providing liquidity for decentralized exchanges, borrow against it. BTC just sits there. I think that “big money” will be attracted to ETH due to all you can do with it.
Yes, I think everyone knows those basics.

So if it's a multi coin world, what do you mean by "the ultimate winner"?
The blockchain with the most activity. A blockchain with uses for culture (NFTs) and finance.
Interesting. I tend to think BTC is here to stay as the most reliable store of value like gold, and ETH addresses the rest of the financial system. Much bigger addressable market in ETH but also a different market entirely. I guess we'll see! But I like the simple approach of just keep buying ETH :)
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Re: Crypto mania !

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Now that we all agree that crypto is a valid, investable asset class (har har har) I think it's time for a healthy "nobody knows nothin'!" and keep buying. :P
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by txhill »

watchnerd wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 5:42 pm
txhill wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 5:29 pm

Thanks for the Twitter link. A lot of food for thought since my plan was just to keep buying ETH no matter what. Now I don't know what to do! Maybe have to rethink my approach--I have no interest in playing with alts other than Ether (if that's even considered an alt). It's clear crypto still goes through cycles although the fact that it is so predictable is really bizarre--surely with more institutional money / trading focus on the space the cycles would be different over time. But it sure seems like we are heading toward another peak / crash soon...
I would expect the cycles to evolve.

And trading strategies, too.

For any trading market, exploits cease to generate excess alpha when they become widely known.

And if ETH really ever really does switch to PoS, it changes the economics.
I agree the cycles will evolve but I think crypto is still such an incredibly inefficient market that we'll see the same 2013- and 2017-esque cycle play out yet again, albeit maybe to a lesser degree. It's so inefficient and yet so predictable that maybe it makes sense to try to time the market at least in terms of buying if not in selling. Just a crazy thing to think about since this would never work in the stock market.
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Re: Crypto mania !

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txhill wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 6:05 pm

I agree the cycles will evolve but I think crypto is still such an incredibly inefficient market that we'll see the same 2013- and 2017-esque cycle play out yet again, albeit maybe to a lesser degree. It's so inefficient and yet so predictable that maybe it makes sense to try to time the market at least in terms of buying if not in selling. Just a crazy thing to think about since this would never work in the stock market.
I think it's inefficient.

But I think it's not the same as it used to be. The existence of crypto ETFs alone changes things.

I'm not going try to market time things or take any active approach other than if it my DIY 'index' grows faster than the overall crypto market cap, I'll need to trim back.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by k1dpsu »

I completely agree with that approach. Just park cash on CoinbasePro and buy when there is a 20-30% correction. Or, just wait for this cycle to end and be very diligent about DCA'ing when the market is dead.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by banook »

watchnerd wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 6:16 pm
txhill wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 6:05 pm

I agree the cycles will evolve but I think crypto is still such an incredibly inefficient market that we'll see the same 2013- and 2017-esque cycle play out yet again, albeit maybe to a lesser degree. It's so inefficient and yet so predictable that maybe it makes sense to try to time the market at least in terms of buying if not in selling. Just a crazy thing to think about since this would never work in the stock market.
I think it's inefficient.

But I think it's not the same as it used to be. The existence of crypto ETFs alone changes things.

I'm not going try to market time things or take any active approach other than if it my DIY 'index' grows faster than the overall crypto market cap, I'll need to trim back.
I think your experiment is a neat one, and would be grateful to hear how it goes as time in this space progresses.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by decapod10 »

k1dpsu wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 5:49 pm
watchnerd wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 5:43 pm
k1dpsu wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 5:40 pm

I am an ETH maximalist. It’s 90% of what I hold. I think that it is going to be the ultimate winner. EIP-1559 and the move to POS. Just keep buying it. I’m still making weekly buys of it. Don’t mess around with the other goofy coins and you will be fine.
One winner?

You think if ETH grows enough BTC dies?
That’s the multi-trillion dollar question.

I can’t imagine BTC going away but if the “flippening” happens BTC takes a negative narrative hit. I’m unsure if that happens this cycle but I expect it to happen. It may signal the top of this cycle. A lot of smart people in the space are saying that.

Unlike BTC, ETH is a productive asset. Can earn staking it, providing liquidity for decentralized exchanges, borrow against it. BTC just sits there. I think that “big money” will be attracted to ETH due to all you can do with it.
I think that BTC and ETH can certainly coexist, but I also think that ETH is Bitcoin's biggest threat in many ways. It may be one reason why Bitcoin maximalists tend to be so negative toward ETH (like ETH maximalists tend to be negative toward Cardano/Binance,etc but don't usually care about BTC one way or the other since BTC is not a particular threat to ETH).

If you imagine a world where ETH is the dominant smart contract blockchain AND predictions that ETH will become deflationary after EIP 1559 come true (though this is certainly not a given at this point). So people are using ETH for their DeFi or their NFTs or whatever, why would they then decide to park their ETH into BTC? Why not just leave it in ETH if there is no inflationary pressure, you have to pay transaction fees to switch back and forth between BTC and ETH, you might need to use your ETH for something else later, maybe people just decide to keep their ETH and not bother with BTC at all. Not necessarily predicting this would happen, but it seems to me to be within the range of outcomes.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by ChinchillaWhiplash »

So many new cryptos. Which one/ones will be successful? Makes investing in them difficult. BTC and ETH are the current leaders. Will they stay this way or will some new one take their place in the next few years? Think Commodore 64 and Atari. Is GDLC a good way to be invested without actually holding crypto? Will it capture the future winners? Kind of a high ER at 2.5%, but ...
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Re: Crypto mania !

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ChinchillaWhiplash wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 6:24 pm So many new cryptos. Which one/ones will be successful? Makes investing in them difficult. BTC and ETH are the current leaders. Will they stay this way or will some new one take their place in the next few years? Think Commodore 64 and Atari. Is GDLC a good way to be invested without actually holding crypto? Will it capture the future winners? Kind of a high ER at 2.5%, but ...
I'm just indexing the crypto space.

That way I don't have to try to pick winners.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by k1dpsu »

Top99% wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 5:50 pm
Toons wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 5:23 pm Easy Come
Easy Go :wink:
Easy Go and _FAST_ Go is what I learned the hard way when the Tech Bubble popped and ~$2.5m disappeared before my eyes in less than 15 minutes. Greed can turn into fear with startling quickness. I suspect a new generation will be learning about this fairly soon but I won't try and predict when soon will be.
This already happened to a lot of us back in 2018 in this space. The nice thing is that the game just keeps repeating itself and the stakes just continue to go up. Must like the dotcom bubble, most of the protocols are vaporware. However, there are going to be protocols that last and those are the ones that are going to wind up changing the world.
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Re: Crypto mania !

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banook wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 6:21 pm

I think your experiment is a neat one, and would be grateful to hear how it goes as time in this space progresses.
Check back in 5 years? ;)

Or maybe sooner if I have to rebalance by End of Year.
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Re: Crypto mania !

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k1dpsu wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 6:19 pm I completely agree with that approach. Just park cash on CoinbasePro and buy when there is a 20-30% correction. Or, just wait for this cycle to end and be very diligent about DCA'ing when the market is dead.
Yeah maybe this is the thing to do. Did you play with alts too or just ETH?
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by txhill »

watchnerd wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 6:32 pm
banook wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 6:21 pm

I think your experiment is a neat one, and would be grateful to hear how it goes as time in this space progresses.
Check back in 5 years? ;)

Or maybe sooner if I have to rebalance by End of Year.
I think for you the hardest rule to set with your approach is when / how often to rebalance. Are you going to set a rule on that in advance? I think we could very well see some pretty crazy spikes up and/or down in the coming months.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by k1dpsu »

txhill wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 6:36 pm
k1dpsu wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 6:19 pm I completely agree with that approach. Just park cash on CoinbasePro and buy when there is a 20-30% correction. Or, just wait for this cycle to end and be very diligent about DCA'ing when the market is dead.
Yeah maybe this is the thing to do. Did you play with alts too or just ETH?
Started with BTC in ‘14. Moved onto to ETH in ‘16. Currently messing around in Defi. Still buying ETH. Got burned with some dead ALTs in ‘17 but it was such a small % of the portfolio. Shockingly, ETC has risen from the dead. UBQ is dead dead. I had written that off. Kinda swore off ALTs since. Watching/dabbling with UNI and LINK now.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by Finridge »

HomerJ wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 2:44 pm I'm actually quite worried the longer it goes on.

I totally saw the housing crash coming, but I didn't care because I owned my house. I figured it would just hurt the people who borrowed too much, and banks who were dumb enough to lend to them.

But what happened was investment firms packaged those bad mortgage loans into "investment vehicles" called CDOs, which allowed the rot to spread throughout the entire financial system, and nearly brought it all down.

I fear the same may happen with crypto. At first, it was just going to hurt the people who bought bitcoin last or dogecoin last before the crash.. but now the investment firms are getting in on the action. They will find a way to repackage the crypto loans that already over-leveraged and a house of cards, and sell them to others, touting them as nearly risk-free, just like they did with CDOs (you'll own a tiny piece of a bunch of different mortgages! What are the odds they all default at the same time?) :oops:

Same with crypto. I see a monumental crash someday. Every post here about how one can loan out crypto to other people who use those loans to speculate on more crypto scares the hell out of me.

All the crypto-proponents continually compare those loans to savings accounts at banks, but leverage is where the real danger lies.

If a bunch of people or institutions owned bitcoin, and bitcoin crashed 50%, even 80%, those people would just have a lot less money.

The danger is when a crash like that takes them above 100% losses because of leverage. Where people default, and then institutions default, and other institutions (who may have had zero crypto, but were intertwined with institutions that did) are affected as well.

It happened in 2008... The longer this goes on, and the more the Wall Street geniuses get involved, the more danger I see.

I just don't know how to hedge against it...
I think that the concern is legitimate. There are numerous examples of how bubbles arising from manic speculation over one commodity can adversely impact the rest of the economy.

But how should this impact our own investing strategy? Myself- I intend to stay the course. That is: I will stay stay invested in index funds. I will not try to time the market. I will continue to live well within my means. I will intend to avoid leverage and credit card debt, and really debt of all kinds except for my home mortgage. I will continue to have emergency funds.

So at the end of the day, what will happen will happen. It is not something I can do anything about. I'm as prepared for boom or bust as I can be. So it's not worth worrying about.
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Re: Crypto mania !

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txhill wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 6:39 pm

I think for you the hardest rule to set with your approach is when / how often to rebalance. Are you going to set a rule on that in advance? I think we could very well see some pretty crazy spikes up and/or down in the coming months.
Quarterly.

For a couple of reasons:

1. Global Market Portfolio data is updated quarterly:

2. RSU distributions quarterly (new lump sum investments)

3. TIPS auction timing
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by txhill »

watchnerd wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 6:51 pm
txhill wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 6:39 pm

I think for you the hardest rule to set with your approach is when / how often to rebalance. Are you going to set a rule on that in advance? I think we could very well see some pretty crazy spikes up and/or down in the coming months.
Quarterly.

For a couple of reasons:

1. Global Market Portfolio data is updated quarterly:

2. RSU distributions quarterly (new lump sum investments)

3. TIPS auction timing
Sound approach.
k1dpsu wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 6:49 pm Started with BTC in ‘14. Moved onto to ETH in ‘16. Currently messing around in Defi. Still buying ETH. Got burned with some dead ALTs in ‘17 but it was such a small % of the portfolio. Shockingly, ETC has risen from the dead. UBQ is dead dead. I had written that off. Kinda swore off ALTs since. Watching/dabbling with UNI and LINK now.
ETC's rise points to altseason mania and makes me think we are headed for the peak very soon. I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of people buying ETC think they're buying ETH. I'm just sticking to ETH at this point but DOT, UNI, and LINK all seem interesting--maybe I'll look at picking up a bunch if/when there's a big crash in a year or so. I'm also holding onto a bit of BTC just because...
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Re: Crypto mania !

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txhill wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 6:57 pm I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of people buying ETC think they're buying ETH.
That was my thought.

I don't think it has anything to do with alt season, as I can't see any traders who know the space buying it on purpose.

Unless it's just to benefit from those who didn't know the difference.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by nisiprius »

watchnerd wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 6:16 pm...But I think it's not the same as it used to be. The existence of crypto ETFs alone changes things...
What crypto ETFs? None in the US yet, or did the SEC just approve one?
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.
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