Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

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runninginvestor
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by runninginvestor »

occambogle wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 4:47 pm
Ed 2 wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 4:35 pm To the center of the Earth!
Very funny indeed.... :-)
Jags4186 wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 4:41 pm You really expect 70% CAGR over the next 10 years? So you’re saying if crypto’s current market cap is $1T you believe it’s going to be $201T in 10 years? Almost triple world GDP?
Such limited "global" thinking... Elon Musk is going to Mars, you forgot to include Mars GDP in your calculations.... :-)
But I heard the tax rate on Mars is out of this world.
Williams57
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Williams57 »

Jags4186 wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 4:41 pm
Williams57 wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 4:38 pm
watchnerd wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 4:35 pm
Williams57 wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 12:42 pm And hopefully, long term the gains will also be 10+ fold
Do you mean 10x per year?

Or 10x over a 20 year span?
10 fold of stock market gains in the next 5-10 years. So if stock market's long term gain is 7% annually, crypto's is 70%? For the near future.

My speculation: return multiplier is inversely proportional to acceptance, so maybe in 10 years the returns will be about the same as S&P 500? I say this and at the same time tell myself, how can you compare currency to stock market? Lol.
You really expect 70% CAGR over the next 10 years? So you’re saying if crypto’s current market cap is $1T you believe it’s going to be $201T in 10 years? Almost triple world GDP?
Crazy! I agree, that sounds absurd haha!
That's the problem with comparing crypto with other investments. In the end, it's currency. Who knows, maybe in 2031 that won't be a crazy number given how commonplace the word "trillion" has become.
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tradri
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by tradri »

Williams57 wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 4:50 pm In the end, it's currency.
In its current state it's a collectible.
txhill
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by txhill »

Anything less than a 25% drop in bitcoin's price only barely registers. I think there were something like a dozen such drawdowns during the 2017 bull market. And then there was an 80-90% price drop. If the cycle repeats again, there might be a pretty spectacular rise and fall ahead of us! Regardless I remain bullish longterm. I'm not sure I see $200 trillion in 10 years though... my target is more like half of gold's market cap in 10 years.
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tradri
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by tradri »

txhill wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:10 pm Anything less than a 25% drop in bitcoin's price only barely registers. I think there were something like a dozen such drawdowns during the 2017 bull market. And then there was an 80-90% price drop. If the cycle repeats again, there might be a pretty spectacular rise and fall ahead of us! Regardless I remain bullish longterm. I'm not sure I see $200 trillion in 10 years though... my target is more like half of gold's market cap in 10 years.
So what's your exit strategy for this bull run? Or are you planning to hold through Crypto winter?
Williams57
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Williams57 »

In preparation for the 80-90% loss, I'm curious. Can one tax loss harvest with crypto? Do the same rules apply?
txhill
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by txhill »

tradri wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:12 pm
txhill wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:10 pm Anything less than a 25% drop in bitcoin's price only barely registers. I think there were something like a dozen such drawdowns during the 2017 bull market. And then there was an 80-90% price drop. If the cycle repeats again, there might be a pretty spectacular rise and fall ahead of us! Regardless I remain bullish longterm. I'm not sure I see $200 trillion in 10 years though... my target is more like half of gold's market cap in 10 years.
So what's your exit strategy for this bull run? Or are you planning to hold through Crypto winter?
I've just been DCA'ing in for a little while as I do with everything else, since I have a long term view of its value. And I hate selling anything. But then again, I've never invested in anything so volatile before, so maybe I do need to take some off the table if it goes up beyond $100k or so this year. If it just keeps dropping from here I have no intention of selling; I'll keep DCA'ing in over time at my own pace.
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tradri
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by tradri »

txhill wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:20 pm
I've just been DCA'ing in for a little while as I do with everything else, since I have a long term view of its value. And I hate selling anything. But then again, I've never invested in anything so volatile before, so maybe I do need to take some off the table if it goes up beyond $100k or so this year. If it just keeps dropping from here I have no intention of selling; I'll keep DCA'ing in over time at my own pace.
HODL :beer
decapod10
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by decapod10 »

Williams57 wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:19 pm In preparation for the 80-90% loss, I'm curious. Can one tax loss harvest with crypto? Do the same rules apply?
Yes you can, though it's not clear how the wash rule applies (presumably it is the same 30 day waiting period, but not sure if this has ever been clarified).
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by txhill »

tradri wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:22 pm
txhill wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:20 pm
I've just been DCA'ing in for a little while as I do with everything else, since I have a long term view of its value. And I hate selling anything. But then again, I've never invested in anything so volatile before, so maybe I do need to take some off the table if it goes up beyond $100k or so this year. If it just keeps dropping from here I have no intention of selling; I'll keep DCA'ing in over time at my own pace.
HODL :beer
Yeah i guess so! The harder decision for me is how much to allocate between BTC and ETH. My ETH has heavily outperformed my BTC to date, but I don't really have a very strong sense of how to allocate between them because they have very different value propositions. I might just start to do equal weighting between them from here on out, but I guess that's pretty classic and stupid performance-chasing behavior (was doing 80:20 originally). I'm pretty sure whatever I decide on, it's going to be wrong :) I'm sure I will be a lot poorer regardless 1 year from now...
Last edited by txhill on Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
occambogle
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by occambogle »

Williams57 wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:19 pm In preparation for the 80-90% loss, I'm curious. Can one tax loss harvest with crypto? Do the same rules apply?
I was just reading into that... from what I can see, because the IRS classifies most cryptos as property, not securities, you can indeed TLH and the wash-sale rule does not apply... you could sell with TLH and rebuy straight away. But true it seems there has not been explicit confirmation from IRS it seems.

https://www.natlawreview.com/article/wh ... sales-rule

https://www.forbes.com/sites/shehanchan ... ould-know/
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tradri
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by tradri »

txhill wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:28 pm
Yeah i guess so! The harder decision for me is how much to allocate between BTC and ETH. My ETH has heavily outperformed my BTC to date, but I don't really have a very strong sense of how to allocate between them because they have very different value propositions. I might just start to do equal weighting between them from here on out, but I guess that's pretty classic and stupid performance-chasing behavior (was doing 80:20 originally). I'm pretty sure whatever I decide on, it's going to be wrong :) I'm sure I will be a lot poorer regardless 1 year from now...
I think John Bogle would recommend a classic 60/40 allocation. Can't go wrong with that. :wink:
txhill
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by txhill »

tradri wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:32 pm
txhill wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:28 pm
Yeah i guess so! The harder decision for me is how much to allocate between BTC and ETH. My ETH has heavily outperformed my BTC to date, but I don't really have a very strong sense of how to allocate between them because they have very different value propositions. I might just start to do equal weighting between them from here on out, but I guess that's pretty classic and stupid performance-chasing behavior (was doing 80:20 originally). I'm pretty sure whatever I decide on, it's going to be wrong :) I'm sure I will be a lot poorer regardless 1 year from now...
I think John Bogle would recommend a classic 60/40 allocation. Can't go wrong with that. :wink:
Well in that case! :sharebeer
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by decapod10 »

occambogle wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:29 pm
Williams57 wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:19 pm In preparation for the 80-90% loss, I'm curious. Can one tax loss harvest with crypto? Do the same rules apply?
I was just reading into that... from what I can see, because the IRS classifies most cryptos as property, not securities, you can indeed TLH and the wash-sale rule does not apply... you could sell with TLH and rebuy straight away. But true it seems there has not been explicit confirmation from IRS it seems.

https://www.natlawreview.com/article/wh ... sales-rule

https://www.forbes.com/sites/shehanchan ... ould-know/
That's helpful, being out of a cryptocurrency for 30 days is like lifetime in crypto-land, lol.
Williams57
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Williams57 »

tradri wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:02 pm
Williams57 wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 4:50 pm In the end, it's currency.
In its current state it's a collectible.
You are right. But here is hoping it will some day become fully functional currency. Would be nice to have a borderless, decentralized tool for exchanging assets and labor.
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HomerJ
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by HomerJ »

Prahasaurus wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 4:44 pmIt still amazes me that we are speaking about "currencies," as if Dogecoin (a currency) can be compared in any way with Aave or Curve (projects that are not, and never claimed to be, "currencies." But yeah, sure, it's true you can start your own coin tomorrow. And with savvy marketing maybe get some suckers to buy it. That is 99% of the market.
You just described bitcoin. Dogecoin is bitcoin.

Again, you've got me interested in some of the other projects (not interested enough to invest, but sure I'll watch and listen).

But bitcoin has always been pure crowd madness. EXACTLY like Dogecoin.
in fact this market is all about throwing money after no name joke projects. And has been for the past 6 months or so. Aave is a serious project that can legitimately disrupt our banking system. Aave's market cap is 4.5 billion USD. Dogecoin, a joke project with savvy marketing, is worth 8x more than Aave. XRP, a clear scam to anyone paying attention, is worth 12x more than Aave.
And you wonder why we avoid it?
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HomerJ
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by HomerJ »

Williams57 wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:37 pm
tradri wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:02 pm
Williams57 wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 4:50 pm In the end, it's currency.
In its current state it's a collectible.
You are right. But here is hoping it will some day become fully functional currency. Would be nice to have a borderless, decentralized tool for exchanging assets and labor.
Why would that be nice?

Centralized has negatives and positives. Decentralized also has negatives and positives. Centralized seems nicer from where I'm sitting.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
Williams57
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Williams57 »

HomerJ wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:40 pm
Williams57 wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:37 pm
tradri wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:02 pm
Williams57 wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 4:50 pm In the end, it's currency.
In its current state it's a collectible.
You are right. But here is hoping it will some day become fully functional currency. Would be nice to have a borderless, decentralized tool for exchanging assets and labor.
Why would that be nice?

Centralized has negatives and positives. Decentralized also has negatives and positives. Centralized seems nicer from where I'm sitting.
To have more options?
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tradri
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by tradri »

Williams57 wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:37 pm
You are right. But here is hoping it will some day become fully functional currency. Would be nice to have a borderless, decentralized tool for exchanging assets and labor.
Governments have never allowed competing currencies. Before Bitcoin reaches that level it will be legislated into oblivion.

But the governments aren't worried about that because they see that Bitcoin is only being used as a collectible.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Williams57 »

tradri wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:43 pm
Williams57 wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:37 pm
You are right. But here is hoping it will some day become fully functional currency. Would be nice to have a borderless, decentralized tool for exchanging assets and labor.
Governments have never allowed competing currencies. Before Bitcoin reaches that level it will be legislated into oblivion.

But the governments aren't worried about that because they see that Bitcoin is only being used as a collectible.
Call me naive, but I believe governments will eventually do what businesses and (rich) people want.
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tradri
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by tradri »

Williams57 wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:46 pm
Call me naive, but I believe governments will eventually do what businesses and (rich) people want.
Naive?

I call thinking that the United States is very eager to give up its control over the world reserve currency and all the power that comes with that naive.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Williams57 »

occambogle wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:29 pm
Williams57 wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:19 pm In preparation for the 80-90% loss, I'm curious. Can one tax loss harvest with crypto? Do the same rules apply?
I was just reading into that... from what I can see, because the IRS classifies most cryptos as property, not securities, you can indeed TLH and the wash-sale rule does not apply... you could sell with TLH and rebuy straight away. But true it seems there has not been explicit confirmation from IRS it seems.

https://www.natlawreview.com/article/wh ... sales-rule

https://www.forbes.com/sites/shehanchan ... ould-know/
Yay!
Williams57
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Williams57 »

tradri wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:50 pm
Williams57 wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:46 pm
Call me naive, but I believe governments will eventually do what businesses and (rich) people want.
Naive?

I call thinking that the United States is very eager to give up its control over the world reserve currency and all the power that comes with that naive.
So be it. I am curious about what the next 5-10 years will bring!
decapod10
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by decapod10 »

tradri wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:50 pm
Williams57 wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:46 pm
Call me naive, but I believe governments will eventually do what businesses and (rich) people want.
Naive?

I call thinking that the United States is very eager to give up its control over the world reserve currency and all the power that comes with that naive.
I could see a scenario where the US creates a USD stablecoin that allows the government to exert a lot of control over it, that way they would have more data points everytime something involves the "official USD coin". But it might be too easy to get around using other means.
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tradri
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by tradri »

Williams57 wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:53 pm
So be it. I am curious about what the next 5-10 years will bring!
Me too. I will place my bets: Bitcoin at 2-3 trillion max.
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tradri
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by tradri »

decapod10 wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:54 pm
I could see a scenario where the US creates a USD stablecoin that allows the government to exert a lot of control over it, that way they would have more data points everytime something involves the "official USD coin". But it might be too easy to get around using other means.
What's even the point of that?

The dollar is mostly digital anyways. They aren't going to use a decentralized blockchain, so what's the difference?
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watchnerd
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by watchnerd »

Williams57 wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 4:38 pm 10 fold of stock market gains in the next 5-10 years. So if stock market's long term gain is 7% annually on average, crypto's is 70%? For the near future.
70% CAGR?

For 5-10 Years?

One a current base of $1 Trillion?

Let's run the math on that....

After 10 years, we get:

$201,599,390,044,899.97

$201 TRILLION DOLLARS

The GDP of the whole world is $80 trillion.

If other Bitcoin advocates anticipate similar growth, this is going to be pretty funny to watch.
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tradri
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by tradri »

watchnerd wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 6:09 pm
70% CAGR?

For 5-10 Years?

One a current base of $1 Trillion?

Let's run the math on that....

After 10 years, we get:

$201,599,390,044,899.97

$201 TRILLION DOLLARS

The GDP of the whole world is $80 trillion.

If other Bitcoin advocates anticipate similar growth, this is going to be pretty funny to watch.
Just wait until you hear Michael Saylor's 200% CAGR. :oops:
decapod10
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by decapod10 »

tradri wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 6:02 pm
decapod10 wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:54 pm
I could see a scenario where the US creates a USD stablecoin that allows the government to exert a lot of control over it, that way they would have more data points everytime something involves the "official USD coin". But it might be too easy to get around using other means.
What's even the point of that?

The dollar is mostly digital anyways. They aren't going to use a decentralized blockchain, so what's the difference?
CBDC (central bank digital currencies) are typically centralized, yes. Ukraine is currently developing a CBDC based on Stellar blockchain, it will be interesting to see how that works out, but it will centralized. It can still work with other crypto, how exactly depends on how it is set up. Centralized vs decentralized doesn't necessarily matter for function.

It is much easier to swap between crypto and a stablecoin compared to crypto and USD. A mostly digital dollar doesn't help in that process. ACH/wire transfer is extremely clunky when you are trying to work in the cryptospace. You can't do anything at night or on weekends, ACH takes several days to clear, etc. You have to deal with whatever fees exchanges like Coinbase want to impose when you do an exchange between USD and crypto. Coinbase may not even support the pairing that you want to tranact in, so you have to go find another exchange that has the coin that you want. If you don't have an account there, then you have to sign up, give them your ID, they have to approve your bank, etc.

Also, people who are using DeFi or other blockchain transactions sometimes want to do business using USD equivalent currency. Functionally USD cannot interact with smart contracts. It just can't. You need a USD stablecoin for that.
Last edited by decapod10 on Thu Apr 22, 2021 6:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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watchnerd
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by watchnerd »

Jags4186 wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 4:41 pm You really expect 70% CAGR over the next 10 years? So you’re saying if crypto’s current market cap is $1T you believe it’s going to be $201T in 10 years? Almost triple world GDP?
Like the lottery, apparently Bitcoin is a tax on people who can't do math.
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Williams57
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Williams57 »

watchnerd wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 6:09 pm
Williams57 wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 4:38 pm 10 fold of stock market gains in the next 5-10 years. So if stock market's long term gain is 7% annually on average, crypto's is 70%? For the near future.
70% CAGR?

For 5-10 Years?

One a current base of $1 Trillion?

Let's run the math on that....

After 10 years, we get:

$201,599,390,044,899.97

$201 TRILLION DOLLARS

The GDP of the whole world is $80 trillion.

If other Bitcoin advocates anticipate similar growth, this is going to be pretty funny to watch.
:D :D :D

I also expect a 80-90% crash, periodically.

Ok, 70% was too high. Maybe more like 20% growth, that would put 1 BTC at about $300k in 10 years...Or maybe it will become 0.
In the end, this is all speculation. Regardless of the outcome, I hope it won't be boring! Let the funny money provide some entertainment.
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tradri
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by tradri »

decapod10 wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 6:17 pm
CBDC (central bank digital currencies) are typically centralized, yes. Ukraine is currently developing a CBDC based on Stellar blockchain, it will be interesting to see how that works out, but it will centralized. It can still work with other crypto, how exactly depends on how it is set up. Centralized vs decentralized doesn't necessarily matter for function.

It is much easier to swap between crypto and a stablecoin compared to crypto and USD. A mostly digital dollar doesn't help in that process. ACH/wire transfer is extremely clunky when you are trying to work in the cryptospace. You can't do anything at night or on weekends, ACH takes several days to clear, etc. You have to deal with whatever fees exchanges like Coinbase want to impose when you do an exchange between USD and crypto. Coinbase may not even support the pairing that you want to tranact in, so you have to go find another exchange that has the coin that you want.

Also, people who are using DeFi or other blockchain transactions sometimes want to do business using USD equivalent currency. Functionally USD cannot interact with smart contracts. It just can't. You need a USD stablecoin for that.
I am sure the United States can't wait to develop something that will make it easier for people to potentially hide their wealth in privacy coins.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by watchnerd »

Williams57 wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 4:50 pm Crazy! I agree, that sounds absurd haha!
That's the problem with comparing crypto with other investments. In the end, it's currency. Who knows, maybe in 2031 that won't be a crazy number given how commonplace the word "trillion" has become.
I bet the sharks at Goldman Sachs have run the numbers on this and don't think Bitcoin is going to be larger than the entire world economy in 10 years.

So if they're the smart guys in the room....

...what does that make the rest of the market?
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runninginvestor
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by runninginvestor »

watchnerd wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 6:20 pm
Jags4186 wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 4:41 pm You really expect 70% CAGR over the next 10 years? So you’re saying if crypto’s current market cap is $1T you believe it’s going to be $201T in 10 years? Almost triple world GDP?
Like the lottery, apparently Bitcoin is a tax on people who can't do math.
Well comparing crypto market value in t+10 to GDP today, so would need to adjust up the world's GDP to what it could be atcthstxtine.

2019 global GDP was $87.5T. Let's say 3% growth for 10 years so .. $117.5T.

Crypto cap is only a factor of 2 by that point instead of 3!
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by watchnerd »

Williams57 wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 6:22 pm
:D :D :D

I also expect a 80-90% crash, periodically.

Ok, 70% was too high. Maybe more like 20% growth, that would put 1 BTC at about $300k in 10 years...Or maybe it will become 0.
In the end, this is all speculation. Regardless of the outcome, I hope it won't be boring! Let the funny money provide some entertainment.
20% CAGR on $1T gets you to $6T in 10 years.

Okay, that's more reasonable.

But that's still smaller than the ~$10T gold market, though.

So 10 years later we end up with a store of value that's only 60% as popular as gold??

And can be easily replaced within a generation by some new digital or other ephemeral asset that will be popular with the kids born in 2030?

"Ewww, who wants to own Bitcoin, that's what our parents thought was cool...."
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watchnerd
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by watchnerd »

runninginvestor wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 6:32 pm
watchnerd wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 6:20 pm
Jags4186 wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 4:41 pm You really expect 70% CAGR over the next 10 years? So you’re saying if crypto’s current market cap is $1T you believe it’s going to be $201T in 10 years? Almost triple world GDP?
Like the lottery, apparently Bitcoin is a tax on people who can't do math.
Well comparing crypto market value in t+10 to GDP today, so would need to adjust up the world's GDP to what it could be atcthstxtine.

2019 global GDP was $87.5T. Let's say 3% growth for 10 years so .. $117.5T.

Crypto cap is only a factor of 2 by that point instead of 3!
Oh that makes it totally sensible... ;)
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decapod10
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by decapod10 »

tradri wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 6:25 pm
decapod10 wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 6:17 pm
CBDC (central bank digital currencies) are typically centralized, yes. Ukraine is currently developing a CBDC based on Stellar blockchain, it will be interesting to see how that works out, but it will centralized. It can still work with other crypto, how exactly depends on how it is set up. Centralized vs decentralized doesn't necessarily matter for function.

It is much easier to swap between crypto and a stablecoin compared to crypto and USD. A mostly digital dollar doesn't help in that process. ACH/wire transfer is extremely clunky when you are trying to work in the cryptospace. You can't do anything at night or on weekends, ACH takes several days to clear, etc. You have to deal with whatever fees exchanges like Coinbase want to impose when you do an exchange between USD and crypto. Coinbase may not even support the pairing that you want to tranact in, so you have to go find another exchange that has the coin that you want.

Also, people who are using DeFi or other blockchain transactions sometimes want to do business using USD equivalent currency. Functionally USD cannot interact with smart contracts. It just can't. You need a USD stablecoin for that.
I am sure the United States can't wait to develop something that will make it easier for people to potentially hide their wealth in privacy coins.
Not sure if this is really allowed to talk about this given forum rules, but right now, a government's only easy way of monitoring crypto transactions is having exchanges send them reports, which is really only a very tiny slice of information. If a government had a CBDC, they would have many more "eyes" out in the cryptospace. Everytime a transaction touches a CBDC, they could get a report if they wanted to. They have much more control over what they can see, how the coin functions,etc. It would not make it easier to hide wealth, but make it harder. How much harder though is the question. May or may not be enough to make it worth it.
Williams57
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Williams57 »

watchnerd wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 6:33 pm
Williams57 wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 6:22 pm
:D :D :D

I also expect a 80-90% crash, periodically.

Ok, 70% was too high. Maybe more like 20% growth, that would put 1 BTC at about $300k in 10 years...Or maybe it will become 0.
In the end, this is all speculation. Regardless of the outcome, I hope it won't be boring! Let the funny money provide some entertainment.
20% CAGR on $1T gets you to $6T in 10 years.

Okay, that's more reasonable.

But that's still smaller than the ~$10T gold market, though.

So 10 years later we end up with a store of value that's only 60% as popular as gold??

And can be easily replaced within a generation by some new digital or other ephemeral asset that will be popular with the kids born in 2030?

"Ewww, who wants to own Bitcoin, that's what our parents thought was cool...."
If I lose money to advance the technology I believe in it won't be saddest loss. As long as the idea and the intent are not lost, it's not a waste imho.
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watchnerd
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by watchnerd »

Williams57 wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 6:39 pm

If I lose money to advance the technology I believe in it won't be saddest loss. As long as the idea and the intent are not lost, it's not a waste imho.
Buying NetJet plans for early adopters is advancing the cause?

If you want to advance the technology, you can contribute code. It's free.
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tradri
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by tradri »

decapod10 wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 6:36 pm
Not sure if this is really allowed to talk about this given forum rules, but right now, a government's only easy way of monitoring crypto transactions is having exchanges send them reports, which is really only a very tiny slice of information. If a government had a CBDC, they would have many more "eyes" out in the cryptospace. Everytime a transaction touches a CBDC, they could get a report if they wanted to. They have much more control over what they can see, how the coin functions,etc. It would not make it easier to hide wealth, but make it harder. How much harder though is the question. May or may not be enough to make it worth it.
If a CBDC could be easily swapped to other Cryptos, as you said above, there is no way this provides the government with more information than what they are gathering from all the KYC-requirements from the exchanges.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by decapod10 »

tradri wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 6:45 pm
decapod10 wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 6:36 pm
Not sure if this is really allowed to talk about this given forum rules, but right now, a government's only easy way of monitoring crypto transactions is having exchanges send them reports, which is really only a very tiny slice of information. If a government had a CBDC, they would have many more "eyes" out in the cryptospace. Everytime a transaction touches a CBDC, they could get a report if they wanted to. They have much more control over what they can see, how the coin functions,etc. It would not make it easier to hide wealth, but make it harder. How much harder though is the question. May or may not be enough to make it worth it.
If a CBDC could be easily swapped to other Cryptos, as you said above, there is no way this provides the government with more information than what they are gathering from all the KYC-requirements from the exchanges.
Agree to disagree then. I doubt it will ever happen anyway.
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watchnerd
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by watchnerd »

HomerJ wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 4:03 pm You're young, we're old.

You're taking $5000 to Vegas for "fun money". I did that too, back in the day.

You're asking why don't we want to take $100,000 to Vegas...

If it took me 25 years to save $2 million, gambling $100,000 (5%) isn't going to be "fun". Not for me. Maybe it will be for you.

There are a thousand other things I could do with that $100,000 instead of gambling it to give myself a thrill.

There are plenty of other kinds of fun in life.

Oh, and "riding on the line" is a craps reference. You place your bets on the line.

Especially when compared to the fun I could have with that 5% "fun money" buying something like a 2021 Aston Martin DBS Superleggera.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MM19RxI ... nnel=CARTV

That looks like a lot more fun than holding Bitcoin.
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JBTX
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by JBTX »

Now that I've been at this for days I decided to go with coinbase pro to lower fees. I set up pro, and successfully transfered my Bitcoin from coinbase to pro. However I've tried to do this several times with ETH and it says transfer successful but then shows no transfer in either CBP or CB?
decapod10
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by decapod10 »

JBTX wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 7:28 pm Now that I've been at this for days I decided to go with coinbase pro to lower fees. I set up pro, and successfully transfered my Bitcoin from coinbase to pro. However I've tried to do this several times with ETH and it says transfer successful but then shows no transfer in either CBP or CB?
I've done that before with no problems, I don't recall how long it took though. How long has it been?
JBTX
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by JBTX »

decapod10 wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 7:30 pm
JBTX wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 7:28 pm Now that I've been at this for days I decided to go with coinbase pro to lower fees. I set up pro, and successfully transfered my Bitcoin from coinbase to pro. However I've tried to do this several times with ETH and it says transfer successful but then shows no transfer in either CBP or CB?
I've done that before with no problems, I don't recall how long it took though. How long has it been?
How long has what been?
txhill
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by txhill »

JBTX wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 7:28 pm Now that I've been at this for days I decided to go with coinbase pro to lower fees. I set up pro, and successfully transfered my Bitcoin from coinbase to pro. However I've tried to do this several times with ETH and it says transfer successful but then shows no transfer in either CBP or CB?
Sometimes you can’t move funds around until your original deposit clears (ACH takes like 5 days sometimes). Until then you can’t even move from Coinbase to Coinbase pro. Perhaps that is the issue? I haven’t had any other issues otherwise, and I’ve used Coinbase pro.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by GR8FUL-D »

JBTX wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 7:28 pm Now that I've been at this for days I decided to go with coinbase pro to lower fees. I set up pro, and successfully transfered my Bitcoin from coinbase to pro. However I've tried to do this several times with ETH and it says transfer successful but then shows no transfer in either CBP or CB?
Why are you transferring your BTC and ETH to coinbase pro? Are you planning on using both of them to buy some other coin(s), or trading/selling them for fiat?
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by abuss368 »

When I back up my truck or space ship, I will not buy crypto!

Tony
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txhill
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by txhill »

GR8FUL-D wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 7:57 pm
JBTX wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 7:28 pm Now that I've been at this for days I decided to go with coinbase pro to lower fees. I set up pro, and successfully transfered my Bitcoin from coinbase to pro. However I've tried to do this several times with ETH and it says transfer successful but then shows no transfer in either CBP or CB?
Why are you transferring your BTC and ETH to coinbase pro? Are you planning on using both of them to buy some other coin(s), or trading/selling them for fiat?
If I ever get off Coinbase's ETH 2.0 staking waitlist, I'd consider staking a little bit on Coinbase. I definitely am not up for staking by myself.
JBTX
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by JBTX »

GR8FUL-D wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 7:57 pm
JBTX wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 7:28 pm Now that I've been at this for days I decided to go with coinbase pro to lower fees. I set up pro, and successfully transfered my Bitcoin from coinbase to pro. However I've tried to do this several times with ETH and it says transfer successful but then shows no transfer in either CBP or CB?
Why are you transferring your BTC and ETH to coinbase pro? Are you planning on using both of them to buy some other coin(s), or trading/selling them for fiat?
Because I will use CBP going forward due to lower fees.
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