Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

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HomerJ
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by HomerJ »

txhill wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 12:35 pm
tradri wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 11:28 am
txhill wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 11:24 am
I agree there is risk. It's impossible to precisely quantify. I just happen to think this particular risk is overstated because it fits the popular "China bad" fearmongering in certain parts of the media. There are plenty of risks with bitcoin, but it's just whether you see the risks outweighed by the potential upsides (which I've repeated enough on the forum).
What are those massive upsides? 2x your investment, 3x?

Do you actually see Bitcoin's market cap going above $5 trillion?
I expect it to take a larger share of the market cap for stores of value, especially as Web 3.0 takes off and people increasingly rely on bitcoin (the asset) as collateral and bitcoin's network (i.e., the hashing power in the network) for Web 3.0 applications. I assume this adoption and innovation process will take a long time though, so I'm eyeing a 10 year time horizon right now. I would not be surprised to see it 3x over 10 years but I can't quantify exactly what my price target is. If the valuation explodes in the short term without the # of users and applications also growing to keep pace, I'll assume we're in bubble territory and may back off my investment a little bit then.
Bitcoin has nothing to do with "Web 3.0". Ethereum applications makes some sense... But Bitcoin is absolutely useless (note I didn't say "worthless")
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
txhill
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by txhill »

tradri wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 1:09 pm 1. Decentralized systems are always more inefficient than centralized systems. There is no way a decentralized system can compete in terms of speed & fees with a centralized system. Maybe this will evolve to a usable state in the future, but so far no decentralized system has been built that can approach the efficiency of the centralized systems we have today.
This is already not true. Try wiring $1 million from one account to another. Or try borrowing $1 million. Or start lending $1 million to earn some yield. Those actions will take days if not much longer through central banks, and you'll probably incur some hefty fees. With DeFi you can already do that essentially instantly (or maybe in the 30 minutes it takes for the next few blocks to get confirmed) at minimal transactional costs. That said, I do not yet trust DeFi systems with my own money. I like to compare DeFi to self-driving. It's coming someday, and it's going to be better than what we can do as humans, but it has to be absolutely perfect before people will trust their money / lives with it. Not there yet, and maybe not for many years.
2. 3. I've never been into collecting things like Pokémon cards either, but collecting a "proof of ownership" of a .jpeg seems even more useless.
Maybe so. Imagine a world though where you visit your friends in their virtual houses. And I don't mean through a tiny box on a Zoom screen--but a really immersive experience. Then imagine that they have art hanging in their virtual home. If it's just a ctrl c / ctrl v of a jpeg of Klimt's The Kiss, it'll look just like the real painting and give the viewer almost exactly the same experience as viewing the real thing. To many (or most) people, perfectly fine. But to a large segment of people who have access to wealth? It'd look as tacky as a college dorm with a poster from Ikea on the wall. But if you knew that the one hanging there was the scarcest version of the kiss? Scarcity is valuable, even if in a purely utilitarian sense it doesn't mean anything. Same reason we value first editions of a popular book, even if all copies of the book contain the exact same words. You have to think about value in a different light, anyway.
hyperon
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by hyperon »

HomerJ wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 3:20 pm
You have to put down MORE than the loan. No one is buying a car or a house with this. What's crazy is that people are taking that loan and buying MORE crypto-currency.
Actually, I've heard that people are doing exactly this (I don't know anyone personally that has done this). Word is "hodlers" are using the loans to avoid selling their Bitcoin and the associated capital gains tax.
Gadget
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by Gadget »

SlowMovingInvestor wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 5:11 pm
decapod10 wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 5:00 pm
Nothing really except the threat of law, same as most other companies, as well as whatever security features a company has in place. That's why many hardened crypto investors do not keep their crypto on an exchange. You may have heard the phrase "not your keys, not your crypto", it refers to holding crypto in your own wallet rather than trusting others to hold it.
I would hope it's not just one wallet. Multiple wallets, with max amt per wallet, with various groups of trusted employees required to open a wallet. And backups in geographically separated lockers, with multiple employees required to open a locker. This is definitely trickier than other assets, which can't be stolen or made inaccessible and ransomed so easily.

We could have a movie about a heist : Oceans 1011 :happy
I don't know for certain, but I suspect Coinbase and other major exchanges use a multi signature wallet.

Feel free to google, but this is essentially the software version of how in the movies it takes more than one person with a key to launch a nuke. Only 2 or more people together can do it.

It's like a split key encryption scheme, where you probably need more than one employee or entity with multiple keys to make a single transaction once the crypto gets on the "main" giant wallet on the exchange. This would prevent single rogue employees. But it is more complicated, so most individual users don't go this route, although they could. You could setup your own multi sig wallet and require multiple email addresses to approve each transaction if you were super paranoid.
Gadget
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by Gadget »

Valuethinker wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 10:48 am
health teacher wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 9:23 am
Valuethinker wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 8:34 am
But also, what if crypto becomes the main currency on "the dark web"?
What's the currency of choice on the dark web now?
If we have to ask ... we don't have to know ;-).
:? :?
Monero. It's the only truly anonymous crypto (assuming they coded it right). It's the one I could see govs banning in the future.

I'm pretty sure governments want criminals to believe that bitcoin is fully anonymous. Probably makes it easier to catch criminals.
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tradri
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by tradri »


This is already not true. Try wiring $1 million from one account to another. Or try borrowing $1 million. Or start lending $1 million to earn some yield. Those actions will take days if not much longer through central banks, and you'll probably incur some hefty fees. With DeFi you can already do that essentially instantly (or maybe in the 30 minutes it takes for the next few blocks to get confirmed) at minimal transactional costs. That said, I do not yet trust DeFi systems with my own money. I like to compare DeFi to self-driving. It's coming someday, and it's going to be better than what we can do as humans, but it has to be absolutely perfect before people will trust their money / lives with it. Not there yet, and maybe not for many years.
These are security restrictions, not technical limitations if I'm not mistaken. Updating a simple database should happen instantly, and not after 60 minutes have passed, so you can be sure that everybody on the network is up-to-date.

Also, I think people that claim decentralization is the ultimate goal are often times hypocrites, in my opinion. If decentralization is so important, why hasn't Linux gained more wide-spread desktop recognition over the 20 years it has been around? The vast majority of people don't care about decentralization and are more than happy to trust the government and companies for the majority of things. (The success of Coinbase just proves that point)
Maybe so. Imagine a world though where you visit your friends in their virtual houses. And I don't mean through a tiny box on a Zoom screen--but a really immersive experience. Then imagine that they have art hanging in their virtual home. If it's just a ctrl c / ctrl v of a jpeg of Klimt's The Kiss, it'll look just like the real painting and give the viewer almost exactly the same experience as viewing the real thing. To many (or most) people, perfectly fine. But to a large segment of people who have access to wealth? It'd look as tacky as a college dorm with a poster from Ikea on the wall. But if you knew that the one hanging there was the scarcest version of the kiss? Scarcity is valuable, even if in a purely utilitarian sense it doesn't mean anything. Same reason we value first editions of a popular book, even if all copies of the book contain the exact same words. You have to think about value in a different light, anyway.
Sounds very futuristic. Also, there is a physical difference between owning the art that somebody produced in the real world (which can't be copied 1-for-1) and owning a digital copy, which can be copied exactly 1-for-1.
txhill
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by txhill »

tradri wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 1:44 pm These are security restrictions, not technical limitations if I'm not mistaken. Updating a simple database should happen instantly, and not after 60 minutes have passed, so you can be sure that everybody on the network is up-to-date.

Also, I think people that claim decentralization is the ultimate a goal are often times hypocrites, in my opinion. If decentralization is so important, why hasn't Linux gained more wide-spread desktop recognition over the 20 years it has been around? The vast majority of people don't care about decentralization and are more than happy to trust the government and companies for the majority of things. (The success of Coinbase just proves that point)
I agree with you that decentralization itself is not the selling point ultimately--it's the efficiency, ease of use, 24/7 access, and security. Once the best decentralized finance options are available, investors will use them without even knowing what is under the hood.
Sounds very futuristic. Also, there is a physical difference between owning the art that somebody produced in the real world (which can't be copied 1-for-1) and owning a digital copy, which can be copied exactly 1-for-1.
Ok. How does your view of scarcity hold up once 3D printers advance sufficiently that perfect physical replicas can be made? Is a perfect physical copy of the Mona Lisa in your view worth just the same as the one hanging in the Louvre, even if you cannot tell them apart even on a molecular level? I think there is still something special in having "the" one. And even if you disagree, you'd have to be blind not to acknowledge that there are a lot of people who agree that having "the" one is a valuable difference.
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tradri
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by tradri »

I agree with you that decentralization itself is not the selling point ultimately--it's the efficiency, ease of use, 24/7 access, and security. Once the best decentralized finance options are available, investors will use them without even knowing what is under the hood.
Ok, please PM me once Bitcoin/Ethereum/whatever is ready, so I can move my bank account. :wink:


Ok. How does your view of scarcity hold up once 3D printers advance sufficiently that perfect physical replicas can be made? Is a perfect physical copy of the Mona Lisa in your view worth just the same as the one hanging in the Louvre, even if you cannot tell them apart even on a molecular level? I think there is still something special in having "the" one. And even if you disagree, you'd have to be blind not to acknowledge that there are a lot of people who agree that having "the" one is a valuable difference.
You mean scanning each and every atom of a physical object and reproducing it? If that works I'll be the first to clone myself. :wink:
txhill
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by txhill »

tradri wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 1:54 pm
I agree with you that decentralization itself is not the selling point ultimately--it's the efficiency, ease of use, 24/7 access, and security. Once the best decentralized finance options are available, investors will use them without even knowing what is under the hood.
Ok, please PM me once Bitcoin/Ethereum/whatever is ready, so I can move my bank account. :wink:


Ok. How does your view of scarcity hold up once 3D printers advance sufficiently that perfect physical replicas can be made? Is a perfect physical copy of the Mona Lisa in your view worth just the same as the one hanging in the Louvre, even if you cannot tell them apart even on a molecular level? I think there is still something special in having "the" one. And even if you disagree, you'd have to be blind not to acknowledge that there are a lot of people who agree that having "the" one is a valuable difference.
You mean scanning each and every atom of a physical object and reproducing it? If that works I'll be the first to clone myself. :wink:
All this might not happen for another 400 years, but I'm so ready.
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tradri
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by tradri »

txhill wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 2:02 pm
All this might not happen for another 400 years, but I'm so ready.
The early bird catches the worm. :sharebeer
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HomerJ
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by HomerJ »

hyperon wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 1:26 pm
HomerJ wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 3:20 pm
You have to put down MORE than the loan. No one is buying a car or a house with this. What's crazy is that people are taking that loan and buying MORE crypto-currency.
Actually, I've heard that people are doing exactly this (I don't know anyone personally that has done this). Word is "hodlers" are using the loans to avoid selling their Bitcoin and the associated capital gains tax.
Explain how this makes sense.

They want to buy a $25,000 car.

They can
(1) Get a loan from the bank and keep holding onto their bitcoin (and avoid capital gains)
(2) Or they lock up $49,000 of their bitcoin at the exchange (just checked this at https://blockfi.com/crypto-loans/) and pay a higher interest rate than the bank.

Why would anyone choose #2? What advantage does it give you?

Banks already give out low interest loans on cars and houses.. There's no reason to put 2x collateral at a crypto-exchange in order to get a more expensive loan.

No, what people use it for is to double-down and buy even more crypto. Or maybe spending on vacations or something.

Because that's a loan they CAN'T get from the bank for a low interest rate.

If bitcoin crashes, there will be some serious pain.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
GR8FUL-D
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by GR8FUL-D »

While I think the last dozen or so posts between (primarily) tradri, txhill, and Desx have been really interesting and informative, they have ZERO to do with the OP. As a reminder, this is the original post:

I’ve been reading about Bitcoin for a while now and am still clueless. I’ve read the Bogleheads forum comments on the current topic “For those adding crypto as an asset class to their AA” and checked out the links within and am still in the dark. To give you an idea on how lost I am - Coinbase was listed on Nasdaq this past week - is Coinbase cryptocurrency or a holding company/bank that holds the currency?
Can someone recommend articles, a blog, an author, or a website that will help me to understand what it’s all about, how it’s bought and sold, wallets, etc. I have no idea yet if I will eventually buy some but I’d like to at least understand enough to not embarrass myself when people are discussing the subject.


Perhaps I'm wrong, but it really seems to me that most bitcoin/crypto related posts are much less actively moderated than virtually all other topics. I understand that the forum mods have a tough and too often thankless job & I give them major props, but maybe it's time to elect/create some new mods who sole focus is to keep crypto threads on topic?

Anyone else in favor of this or am I just way off the mark here??
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HomerJ
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by HomerJ »

GR8FUL-D wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 2:09 pmbut maybe it's time to elect/create some new mods who sole focus is to keep crypto threads on topic?
Easier to just ban crypto threads probably.

We don't have threads dedicated to gambling at Vegas either.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
hyperon
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by hyperon »

HomerJ wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 2:07 pm
hyperon wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 1:26 pm
HomerJ wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 3:20 pm
You have to put down MORE than the loan. No one is buying a car or a house with this. What's crazy is that people are taking that loan and buying MORE crypto-currency.
Actually, I've heard that people are doing exactly this (I don't know anyone personally that has done this). Word is "hodlers" are using the loans to avoid selling their Bitcoin and the associated capital gains tax.
Explain how this makes sense.

They want to buy a $25,000 car.

They can
(1) Get a loan from the bank and keep holding onto their bitcoin (and avoid capital gains)
(2) Or they lock up $49,000 of their bitcoin at the exchange (just checked this at https://blockfi.com/crypto-loans/) and pay a higher interest rate than the bank.

Why would anyone choose #2? What advantage does it give you?

Banks already give out low interest loans on cars and houses.. There's no reason to put 2x collateral at a crypto-exchange in order to get a more expensive loan.

No, what people use it for is to double-down and buy even more crypto. Or maybe spending on vacations or something.

Because that's a loan they CAN'T get from the bank for a low interest rate.

If bitcoin crashes, there will be some serious pain.
Am I wrong in assuming that if they both avoid capital gains tax AND their Bitcoin appreciates at a rate that is greater than the interest rate on their loan they end up ahead, rather than behind in the case of the bank loan?

EDIT: I'm not saying I would do this, but I would not be in the least bit surprised that if, as you say, people are willing to do the same to buy crypto, they would be willing to do this to buy something like a car or house.

Actually, nevermind. Upon eating lunch I agree this doesn't really make sense. Just get the low interest rate loan if you can and still hodl your Bitcoin.
Last edited by hyperon on Tue Apr 20, 2021 2:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
ballons
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by ballons »

txhill wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 1:22 pm
tradri wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 1:09 pm 2. 3. I've never been into collecting things like Pokémon cards either, but collecting a "proof of ownership" of a .jpeg seems even more useless.
Maybe so. Imagine a world though where you visit your friends in their virtual houses. And I don't mean through a tiny box on a Zoom screen--but a really immersive experience. Then imagine that they have art hanging in their virtual home. If it's just a ctrl c / ctrl v of a jpeg of Klimt's The Kiss, it'll look just like the real painting and give the viewer almost exactly the same experience as viewing the real thing. To many (or most) people, perfectly fine. But to a large segment of people who have access to wealth? It'd look as tacky as a college dorm with a poster from Ikea on the wall. But if you knew that the one hanging there was the scarcest version of the kiss? Scarcity is valuable, even if in a purely utilitarian sense it doesn't mean anything. Same reason we value first editions of a popular book, even if all copies of the book contain the exact same words. You have to think about value in a different light, anyway.
So NFT's exist so the wealthy can measure their virtual penises to their friends? Why stop at art? The wealthy need NFT for their virtual house, virtual pool, virtual wine collection, virtual cars, etc otherwise they can't show off their wealth virtually.

There is no scarcity if you can produce perfect 1-to-1 copies that are 100% indistinguishable from the original.
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OohLaLa
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by OohLaLa »

GR8FUL-D wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 2:09 pm While I think the last dozen or so posts between (primarily) tradri, txhill, and Desx have been really interesting and informative, they have ZERO to do with the OP. As a reminder, this is the original post:
[...]
Perhaps I'm wrong, but it really seems to me that most bitcoin/crypto related posts are much less actively moderated than virtually all other topics. I understand that the forum mods have a tough and too often thankless job & I give them major props, but maybe it's time to elect/create some new mods who sole focus is to keep crypto threads on topic?

Anyone else in favor of this or am I just way off the mark here??
That is exactly the problem... Have to admit it's kind of a shame to see so much antagonism to the most innocent of requests.

Most people didn't come here with an interest to actually help OP in their quest, which was simply learning about crypto. From the types of replies, I imagine many simply immediately assumed that OP wanted to invest all their life savings in Dogecoin. They came here aching for a fight, their ego at the ready. The worst culprits are those who know the least but decide to be armchair generals in the matter.

In other threads, mods will remove the slightest exchange of two or three replies that veer off-topic or that include a reference to one of the untouchables (politics, religion). Whereas, in crypto threads you will find all manner of off-topic debates, IMO lack of common respect/ etiquette, politics in spades. Zero intervention to actually return to the heart of the thread or even to close the thread if it derails completely. Maybe they are overwhelmed with more popular threads? Is crypto just the black sheep, left to its own devices?

I don't agree with there being specialized crypto mods. lol The idea of moderating these threads is the exact same as for any other thread.
SlowMovingInvestor
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by SlowMovingInvestor »

Gadget wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 1:29 pm
SlowMovingInvestor wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 5:11 pm
I would hope it's not just one wallet. Multiple wallets, with max amt per wallet, with various groups of trusted employees required to open a wallet. And backups in geographically separated lockers, with multiple employees required to open a locker. This is definitely trickier than other assets, which can't be stolen or made inaccessible and ransomed so easily.
I don't know for certain, but I suspect Coinbase and other major exchanges use a multi signature wallet.

Feel free to google, but this is essentially the software version of how in the movies it takes more than one person with a key to launch a nuke. Only 2 or more people together can do it.

It's like a split key encryption scheme, where you probably need more than one employee or entity with multiple keys to make a single transaction once the crypto gets on the "main" giant wallet on the exchange. This would prevent single rogue employees. But it is more complicated, so most individual users don't go this route, although they could. You could setup your own multi sig wallet and require multiple email addresses to approve each transaction if you were super paranoid.
Yes, I know how multi signature works, that's what I was referring to when I said a group would be required to 'open' a wallet. And key backups in physical geographically separated lockers.

But I would still hope they use multiple wallets, with max amounts/wallet. It introduces some complexity, but reduces the risk of key employee malfeasance or death (even with backups).

ADDED: Some details on what Gemini does for security.

https://www.gemini.com/security

Our CEO (Tyler Winklevoss) and President (Cameron Winklevoss) are unable to individually or jointly transfer cryptocurrency out of our Cold Storage System.
Last edited by SlowMovingInvestor on Tue Apr 20, 2021 6:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Portfolio: 50% DOGE, 10% SPACs, 10% Frozen OJ futures, 10% MOON ETF, 10% NFTs , 5% FOMO ETF, 5% New Jersey Delis with $100M market cap :)
SlowMovingInvestor
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by SlowMovingInvestor »

Gadget wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 1:32 pm
Valuethinker wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 10:48 am
health teacher wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 9:23 am
Valuethinker wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 8:34 am
But also, what if crypto becomes the main currency on "the dark web"?
What's the currency of choice on the dark web now?
If we have to ask ... we don't have to know ;-).
:? :?
Monero. It's the only truly anonymous crypto (assuming they coded it right). It's the one I could see govs banning in the future.
Also ZeroCash. Although it's still in its very early stages.
Portfolio: 50% DOGE, 10% SPACs, 10% Frozen OJ futures, 10% MOON ETF, 10% NFTs , 5% FOMO ETF, 5% New Jersey Delis with $100M market cap :)
Gadget
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by Gadget »

HomerJ wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 2:12 pm
GR8FUL-D wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 2:09 pmbut maybe it's time to elect/create some new mods who sole focus is to keep crypto threads on topic?
Easier to just ban crypto threads probably.

We don't have threads dedicated to gambling at Vegas either.
Or, if we could just ban one specific person from crypto threads, we could have a reasonable discussion, stay on topic, and learn something. There is a common denominator in all of these threads that either get locked or stray off topic related to crypto.
Prahasaurus
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by Prahasaurus »

A very good 4-page summary of Ethereum, just released, for those looking for general education (and how Ethereum compares to Bitcoin):

https://ethereumcashflow.com
Asset Allocation: VT
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tradri
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by tradri »

Gadget wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 1:32 pm
Monero. It's the only truly anonymous crypto (assuming they coded it right). It's the one I could see govs banning in the future.

I'm pretty sure governments want criminals to believe that bitcoin is fully anonymous. Probably makes it easier to catch criminals.
The US government already views Monero as a problem. Let's see who will win this fight. :twisted:

https://coinmarketcap.com/headlines/new ... g-network/
Valuethinker
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by Valuethinker »

tradri wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 3:27 am
Gadget wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 1:32 pm
Monero. It's the only truly anonymous crypto (assuming they coded it right). It's the one I could see govs banning in the future.

I'm pretty sure governments want criminals to believe that bitcoin is fully anonymous. Probably makes it easier to catch criminals.
The US government already views Monero as a problem. Let's see who will win this fight. :twisted:

https://coinmarketcap.com/headlines/new ... g-network/
Thank you this is interesting information.
Valuethinker
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by Valuethinker »

SlowMovingInvestor wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 5:39 pm
Gadget wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 1:32 pm
Valuethinker wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 10:48 am
health teacher wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 9:23 am
Valuethinker wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 8:34 am
But also, what if crypto becomes the main currency on "the dark web"?
What's the currency of choice on the dark web now?
If we have to ask ... we don't have to know ;-).
:? :?
Monero. It's the only truly anonymous crypto (assuming they coded it right). It's the one I could see govs banning in the future.
Also ZeroCash. Although it's still in its very early stages.
Thank you this is interesting.
Enganerd
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by Enganerd »

Prahasaurus wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 3:51 am
GregG3 wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 3:18 am
Prahasaurus wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 10:47 am
GregG3 wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 8:50 am Interesting fact about Bitcoin, not widely discussed, is the ultra-concentration of ownership. Around 95% of all minted Bitcoins are owned by 2% of Bitcoin holders!! Perhaps this alone explains the wild volatility on any given day.
This is a misrepresentation of the data.

Every major crypto exchange, company, mining operation, entity, and yes, every person, has bitcoin in an address (or multiple addresses) on the Bitcoin blockchain. How do you know if that address is for Joe Smith, Coinbase, Deutsche Bank, or Tesla Motors? You don't. It's like counting Bank of America as one US dollar holder, the same as Joe Smith. Then saying the US dollar is way over-concentrated in the hands of a few based on counting Bank of America and Wells Fargo and the European Central Bank as "people," similar to Joe Smith.
This is not my interpretation of data. It has been distributed in mid-Nov 2020 by Bloomberg based on a research done by Flipside Crypto who analysed the bitcoin blockchain.
An argument from authority is a logical fallacy. Bloomberg is wrong if they imply every crypto address is owned by a person, and from that generalize on ownership concentration. As I said, it's like counting Mr. Wells Fargo or Mr Vanguard as an actual person and including "him" in your calculation of average American savings.
One of the things that bothers me about btc proponents is how they react to FUD. In the case of concentration of btc it is easy to just attack an writer for using a bad analysis such as comparing address quantities amongst total addresses. But is harder to refute the general claim that btc is concentrated in the hands of early adopters, wealthy tech people and the like. We can discuss whether that is a problem or not but to only insult the the author because they used faulty analysis while not addressing the actual claim comes off as biased to me. It would be helpful to explain why comparing one address amount to all is faulty but to then discuss the obvious fact that btc is concentrated (is it an issue or not? maybe it's not ideal but a necessary component of an emergent scarce digital currency). Arguments that focus heavily on how btc helps the unbanked, will greatly improve the plight of those in impoverished 3rd world countries from those owning substantial amounts of btc seem questionable to say the least.
Prahasaurus
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by Prahasaurus »

Enganerd wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 9:18 am
Prahasaurus wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 3:51 am
GregG3 wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 3:18 am
Prahasaurus wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 10:47 am
GregG3 wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 8:50 am Interesting fact about Bitcoin, not widely discussed, is the ultra-concentration of ownership. Around 95% of all minted Bitcoins are owned by 2% of Bitcoin holders!! Perhaps this alone explains the wild volatility on any given day.
This is a misrepresentation of the data.

Every major crypto exchange, company, mining operation, entity, and yes, every person, has bitcoin in an address (or multiple addresses) on the Bitcoin blockchain. How do you know if that address is for Joe Smith, Coinbase, Deutsche Bank, or Tesla Motors? You don't. It's like counting Bank of America as one US dollar holder, the same as Joe Smith. Then saying the US dollar is way over-concentrated in the hands of a few based on counting Bank of America and Wells Fargo and the European Central Bank as "people," similar to Joe Smith.
This is not my interpretation of data. It has been distributed in mid-Nov 2020 by Bloomberg based on a research done by Flipside Crypto who analysed the bitcoin blockchain.
An argument from authority is a logical fallacy. Bloomberg is wrong if they imply every crypto address is owned by a person, and from that generalize on ownership concentration. As I said, it's like counting Mr. Wells Fargo or Mr Vanguard as an actual person and including "him" in your calculation of average American savings.
One of the things that bothers me about btc proponents is how they react to FUD. In the case of concentration of btc it is easy to just attack an writer for using a bad analysis such as comparing address quantities amongst total addresses. But is harder to refute the general claim that btc is concentrated in the hands of early adopters, wealthy tech people and the like. We can discuss whether that is a problem or not but to only insult the the author because they used faulty analysis while not addressing the actual claim comes off as biased to me. It would be helpful to explain why comparing one address amount to all is faulty but to then discuss the obvious fact that btc is concentrated (is it an issue or not? maybe it's not ideal but a necessary component of an emergent scarce digital currency). Arguments that focus heavily on how btc helps the unbanked, will greatly improve the plight of those in impoverished 3rd world countries from those owning substantial amounts of btc seem questionable to say the least.
You can't have an argument if you are using faulty data. It makes a big difference if you are counting Coinbase and Binance as people. If you want to say BTC is overly concentrated, then pick some data and let's discuss. But let's use real and relevant data.

I can't speak for all BTC proponents, but many are probably sick of ridiculous arguments that are constantly used against BTC, typically by disgruntled people who have been screaming "Tulips" for 12 years. Remember Tether? Whatever happened to that one? It was all the rage here some months ago, then quietly died... Etc., etc.

I do think BTC has some real issues, by the way. But concentration in too few hands is not a major one. It's actually surprising that it's not much worse. And it's a naturally correcting problem over time.
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Enganerd
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by Enganerd »

Prahasaurus wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 12:35 pm
Enganerd wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 9:18 am
Prahasaurus wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 3:51 am
GregG3 wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 3:18 am
Prahasaurus wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 10:47 am

This is a misrepresentation of the data.

Every major crypto exchange, company, mining operation, entity, and yes, every person, has bitcoin in an address (or multiple addresses) on the Bitcoin blockchain. How do you know if that address is for Joe Smith, Coinbase, Deutsche Bank, or Tesla Motors? You don't. It's like counting Bank of America as one US dollar holder, the same as Joe Smith. Then saying the US dollar is way over-concentrated in the hands of a few based on counting Bank of America and Wells Fargo and the European Central Bank as "people," similar to Joe Smith.
This is not my interpretation of data. It has been distributed in mid-Nov 2020 by Bloomberg based on a research done by Flipside Crypto who analysed the bitcoin blockchain.
An argument from authority is a logical fallacy. Bloomberg is wrong if they imply every crypto address is owned by a person, and from that generalize on ownership concentration. As I said, it's like counting Mr. Wells Fargo or Mr Vanguard as an actual person and including "him" in your calculation of average American savings.
One of the things that bothers me about btc proponents is how they react to FUD. In the case of concentration of btc it is easy to just attack an writer for using a bad analysis such as comparing address quantities amongst total addresses. But is harder to refute the general claim that btc is concentrated in the hands of early adopters, wealthy tech people and the like. We can discuss whether that is a problem or not but to only insult the the author because they used faulty analysis while not addressing the actual claim comes off as biased to me. It would be helpful to explain why comparing one address amount to all is faulty but to then discuss the obvious fact that btc is concentrated (is it an issue or not? maybe it's not ideal but a necessary component of an emergent scarce digital currency). Arguments that focus heavily on how btc helps the unbanked, will greatly improve the plight of those in impoverished 3rd world countries from those owning substantial amounts of btc seem questionable to say the least.
You can't have an argument if you are using faulty data. It makes a big difference if you are counting Coinbase and Binance as people. If you want to say BTC is overly concentrated, then pick some data and let's discuss. But let's use real and relevant data.

I can't speak for all BTC proponents, but many are probably sick of ridiculous arguments that are constantly used against BTC, typically by disgruntled people who have been screaming "Tulips" for 12 years. Remember Tether? Whatever happened to that one? It was all the rage here some months ago, then quietly died... Etc., etc.

I do think BTC has some real issues, by the way. But concentration in too few hands is not a major one. It's actually surprising that it's not much worse. And it's a naturally correcting problem over time.
Well we know about satoshi's coins. Presumabley Adam Back and other active cypherpunks on the message board have plenty of coins. Then who had disposable income, the curiosity and know how to buy btc at relatively cheap valuations? Not saying I know it is massively concentrated but it is inherently a deflationary currency and to me it seems more likely to be concentrated than not given it's recent inception and rally.

As for Tether I still am uncertain. It is weird that the FUD comes in waves but I never really felt like the FUD was addressed either. Like it could still be considerably unbacked and a means of inflating btc prices for all I know. Just saying the price is still high and we have heard of that concern for years but price is still high doesn't really explain away the risk.
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by Prahasaurus »

Enganerd wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 12:48 pm
Prahasaurus wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 12:35 pm
Enganerd wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 9:18 am
Prahasaurus wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 3:51 am
GregG3 wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 3:18 am

This is not my interpretation of data. It has been distributed in mid-Nov 2020 by Bloomberg based on a research done by Flipside Crypto who analysed the bitcoin blockchain.
An argument from authority is a logical fallacy. Bloomberg is wrong if they imply every crypto address is owned by a person, and from that generalize on ownership concentration. As I said, it's like counting Mr. Wells Fargo or Mr Vanguard as an actual person and including "him" in your calculation of average American savings.
One of the things that bothers me about btc proponents is how they react to FUD. In the case of concentration of btc it is easy to just attack an writer for using a bad analysis such as comparing address quantities amongst total addresses. But is harder to refute the general claim that btc is concentrated in the hands of early adopters, wealthy tech people and the like. We can discuss whether that is a problem or not but to only insult the the author because they used faulty analysis while not addressing the actual claim comes off as biased to me. It would be helpful to explain why comparing one address amount to all is faulty but to then discuss the obvious fact that btc is concentrated (is it an issue or not? maybe it's not ideal but a necessary component of an emergent scarce digital currency). Arguments that focus heavily on how btc helps the unbanked, will greatly improve the plight of those in impoverished 3rd world countries from those owning substantial amounts of btc seem questionable to say the least.
You can't have an argument if you are using faulty data. It makes a big difference if you are counting Coinbase and Binance as people. If you want to say BTC is overly concentrated, then pick some data and let's discuss. But let's use real and relevant data.

I can't speak for all BTC proponents, but many are probably sick of ridiculous arguments that are constantly used against BTC, typically by disgruntled people who have been screaming "Tulips" for 12 years. Remember Tether? Whatever happened to that one? It was all the rage here some months ago, then quietly died... Etc., etc.

I do think BTC has some real issues, by the way. But concentration in too few hands is not a major one. It's actually surprising that it's not much worse. And it's a naturally correcting problem over time.
Well we know about satoshi's coins. Presumabley Adam Back and other active cypherpunks on the message board have plenty of coins. Then who had disposable income, the curiosity and know how to buy btc at relatively cheap valuations? Not saying I know it is massively concentrated but it is inherently a deflationary currency and to me it seems more likely to be concentrated than not given it's recent inception and rally.

As for Tether I still am uncertain. It is weird that the FUD comes in waves but I never really felt like the FUD was addressed either. Like it could still be considerably unbacked and a means of inflating btc prices for all I know. Just saying the price is still high and we have heard of that concern for years but price is still high doesn't really explain away the risk.
The funny thing is that I'm probably considered one of the biggest Bitcoin supporters at this site, but I have real issues with BTC. So much so that I will reduce my position over 2021. Still keeping perhaps 3% of my net worth in BTC, but no more.

But most of the arguments against BTC are, in my opinion, weak sauce. It being overly concentrated in a small % of people is definitely one of those weak arguments.

My feeling is that BTC will achieve the status of digital gold in the short term (over the next 5 years or so). But that is only going to get BTC to 500k USD or so, plus/minus. It's a meme coin, after all, like Dogecoin. But a more serious one. But it lacks utility. Just like gold lacks utility. It's also a major strategic mistake to stay with Proof of Work (mining) over Proof of Stake. I think the environmental issues, although currently overblown, should not be discounted, especially as Bitcoin grows.

And Bitcoin's culture is toxic. Most hardcore Bitcoin supporters believe everything but Bitcoin is going to fail, that crypto is really just Bitcoin, everything else is a scam. There is no sense of inclusivity in Bitcoin. This tribalism exists in all projects to some degree, but with Bitcoin it's off the charts. That is not the environment to encourage cross chain cooperation. And for the next decade, there will definitely be multiple L1 chains.

Ethereum is going to be a major problem long term for Bitcoin. Because Ethereum has tremendous utility, and a hard currency (ETH) to finance transactions on that network. Ethereum is much more inclusive, already positioning itself as the primary transaction layer, with competing chains feeding into Ethereum (just look how all the others quickly try to develop a bridge to Ethereum, because they know what is where everything is happening). And by year end Ethereum should be Proof of Stake, so zero environmental issues.

But BTC has a ways to run before most people understand this. Which is why I'm still very bullish on Bitcoin. However, if I could only own one token for the next 10 years, it would be ETH. In fact, I almost certainly will be owning ETH for the next 10 years... :-)
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by txhill »

Prahasaurus wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 1:28 pm The funny thing is that I'm probably considered one of the biggest Bitcoin supporters at this site, but I have real issues with BTC. So much so that I will reduce my position over 2021. Still keeping perhaps 3% of my net worth in BTC, but no more.

But most of the arguments against BTC are, in my opinion, weak sauce. It being overly concentrated in a small % of people is definitely one of those weak arguments.

My feeling is that BTC will achieve the status of digital gold in the short term (over the next 5 years or so). But that is only going to get BTC to 500k USD or so, plus/minus. It's a meme coin, after all, like Dogecoin. But a more serious one. But it lacks utility. Just like gold lacks utility. It's also a major strategic mistake to stay with Proof of Work (mining) over Proof of Stake. I think the environmental issues, although currently overblown, should not be discounted, especially as Bitcoin grows.

And Bitcoin's culture is toxic. Most hardcore Bitcoin supporters believe everything but Bitcoin is going to fail, that crypto is really just Bitcoin, everything else is a scam. There is no sense of inclusivity in Bitcoin. This tribalism exists in all projects to some degree, but with Bitcoin it's off the charts. That is not the environment to encourage cross chain cooperation. And for the next decade, there will definitely be multiple L1 chains.

Ethereum is going to be a major problem long term for Bitcoin. Because Ethereum has tremendous utility, and a hard currency (ETH) to finance transactions on that network. Ethereum is much more inclusive, already positioning itself as the primary transaction layer, with competing chains feeding into Ethereum (just look how all the others quickly try to develop a bridge to Ethereum, because they know what is where everything is happening). And by year end Ethereum should be Proof of Stake, so zero environmental issues.

But BTC has a ways to run before most people understand this. Which is why I'm still very bullish on Bitcoin. However, if I could only own one token for the next 10 years, it would be ETH. In fact, I almost certainly will be owning ETH for the next 10 years... :-)
Interesting take. I'm very bullish on both BTC and ETH (holding them in about 70-30 ratio, 15% of my portfolio, although I'm slowly building up to 20%). For different reasons of course. But if I had to hold a single coin for 10 years, I'd want BTC because it's got such a grip on the store of value narrative. ETH seems to have the greatest potential for future growth but it's hard to predict with certainty who will have won that space 10 years from now.
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HomerJ
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by HomerJ »

Prahasaurus wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 1:28 pmMy feeling is that BTC will achieve the status of digital gold in the short term (over the next 5 years or so). But that is only going to get BTC to 500k USD or so, plus/minus. It's a meme coin, after all, like Dogecoin. But a more serious one. But it lacks utility. Just like gold lacks utility. It's also a major strategic mistake to stay with Proof of Work (mining) over Proof of Stake. I think the environmental issues, although currently overblown, should not be discounted, especially as Bitcoin grows.
This is a very different story from the one you were pushing when you first started talking about bitcoin on this site.

Seems like you agree with many of us now that bitcoin has no utility.
Ethereum is going to be a major problem long term for Bitcoin. Because Ethereum has tremendous utility, and a hard currency (ETH) to finance transactions on that network. Ethereum is much more inclusive, already positioning itself as the primary transaction layer, with competing chains feeding into Ethereum (just look how all the others quickly try to develop a bridge to Ethereum, because they know what is where everything is happening). And by year end Ethereum should be Proof of Stake, so zero environmental issues.
Note that you've pulled ME closer to accepting Ethereum over the past year, even though I still don't know enough about it. But the little I know makes me think there might be something there as a base to build apps on.

I've made it clear it that Bitcoin, not block-chain, not Ethereum necessarily, is what I think is an obvious scam.
But BTC has a ways to run before most people understand this. Which is why I'm still very bullish on Bitcoin.
Part of the reason most people don't understand this is that you've made hundreds of posts (up until today) telling them that Bitcoin is awesome.

It's one way to invest. Recognize a Ponzi scheme, but get in early, and get out before the top and pump it up along the way. But hundreds of thousands of people are going to lose a ton of money when they get stuck at the top. I'm trying to protect them, and you're trying to make money off them.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by txhill »

HomerJ wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 2:00 pm
Prahasaurus wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 1:28 pmMy feeling is that BTC will achieve the status of digital gold in the short term (over the next 5 years or so). But that is only going to get BTC to 500k USD or so, plus/minus. It's a meme coin, after all, like Dogecoin. But a more serious one. But it lacks utility. Just like gold lacks utility. It's also a major strategic mistake to stay with Proof of Work (mining) over Proof of Stake. I think the environmental issues, although currently overblown, should not be discounted, especially as Bitcoin grows.
This is a very different story from the one you were pushing when you first started talking about bitcoin on this site.

Seems like you agree with many of us now that bitcoin has no utility.
Ethereum is going to be a major problem long term for Bitcoin. Because Ethereum has tremendous utility, and a hard currency (ETH) to finance transactions on that network. Ethereum is much more inclusive, already positioning itself as the primary transaction layer, with competing chains feeding into Ethereum (just look how all the others quickly try to develop a bridge to Ethereum, because they know what is where everything is happening). And by year end Ethereum should be Proof of Stake, so zero environmental issues.
Note that you've pulled ME closer to accepting Ethereum over the past year, even though I still don't know enough about it. But the little I know makes me think there might be something there as a base to build apps on.

I've made it clear it that Bitcoin, not block-chain, not Ethereum necessarily, is what I think is an obvious scam.
But BTC has a ways to run before most people understand this. Which is why I'm still very bullish on Bitcoin.
Part of the reason most people don't understand this is that you've made hundreds of posts (up until today) telling them that Bitcoin is awesome.

It's one way to invest. Recognize a Ponzi scheme, but get in early, and get out before the top and pump it up along the way. But hundreds of thousands of people are going to lose a ton of money when they get stuck at the top. I'm trying to protect them, and you're trying to make money off them.
I am starting to think that my favorite thing to do on this site is have a back and forth with you. Today I'll lead with this: Bitcoin has the same utility as does gold, or bonds (especially if you put Bitcoin in a yield-earning instrument)--the only difference is it is backed by encryption instead of a government (or chemistry in the case of gold). It's fundamentally just as useful or useless, however you slice it. But it's also very sound, in that it the supply cannot be tampered with by any single actor--which means as long as people believe it to have value, it will retain baseline value.

And just to be clear: I think gold and bonds are both stupid investments. I have never put a single fraction of my portfolio into either. But i totally would buy bonds or gold today if I could buy them for what I believed to be a fraction of their real value.
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tradri
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by tradri »

Prahasaurus wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 1:28 pm
My feeling is that BTC will achieve the status of digital gold in the short term (over the next 5 years or so). But that is only going to get BTC to 500k USD or so, plus/minus. It's a meme coin, after all, like Dogecoin. But a more serious one. But it lacks utility. Just like gold lacks utility. It's also a major strategic mistake to stay with Proof of Work (mining) over Proof of Stake. I think the environmental issues, although currently overblown, should not be discounted, especially as Bitcoin grows.
The funny thing is how detached the market is from reality and how people are throwing around big numbers like its nothing.

For Bitcoin to reach $500k, it would have to surpass the market cap of gold. For that, it would have to convince all the central banks and jewelry producers (the main buyers of gold) to switch from gold to Bitcoin.

Even if everything did work out as planned and the world fully transitions in the following years, the maximum reward would "only" be 10x your investment. For me, the risk-return trade-off isn't there.
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by txhill »

tradri wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 2:15 pm
Prahasaurus wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 1:28 pm
My feeling is that BTC will achieve the status of digital gold in the short term (over the next 5 years or so). But that is only going to get BTC to 500k USD or so, plus/minus. It's a meme coin, after all, like Dogecoin. But a more serious one. But it lacks utility. Just like gold lacks utility. It's also a major strategic mistake to stay with Proof of Work (mining) over Proof of Stake. I think the environmental issues, although currently overblown, should not be discounted, especially as Bitcoin grows.
The funny thing is how detached the market is from reality and how people are throwing around big numbers like its nothing.

For Bitcoin to reach $500k, it would have to surpass the market cap of gold. For that, it would have to convince all the central banks and jewelry producers (the main buyers of gold) to switch from gold to Bitcoin.

Even if everything did work out as planned and the world fully transitions in the following years, the maximum reward would "only" be 10x your investment. For me, the risk-return trade-off isn't there.
I agree to a point but disagree as to the maximum reward. I agree that gold is simply not going to go to 0 and all of its value pour into bitcoin. I think bitcoin eats gold's market share quite a lot but it's not like everyone is going to stop wearing gold jewelry or gifting gold as part of a cultural tradition, etc.

Rather I think the real value in bitcoin is in serving as an easily investible store of value and hedging instrument for large portfolios--something that is to some extent taken up by gold but also taken up by bonds or cash-like instruments. We are going to increasingly see institutional investors allocate small percentages of their portfolios to bitcoin that they previously would have put in gold, cash, bonds, other similar hedging investments. There is a huge demand for that that could take bitcoin well beyond a $10 trillion market cap. But I think that sort of shift will take many years to happen.
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by tradri »

txhill wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 2:08 pm
And just to be clear: I think gold and bonds are both stupid investments. I have never put a single fraction of my portfolio into either. But i totally would buy bonds or gold today if I could buy them for what I believed to be a fraction of their real value.
We can argue about golds/bitcoins intrinsic value all we want, but comparing it to bonds is nonsense.

The purpose of high-quality, investment-grade bonds is to be the ultimate source of stability in a portfolio. (especially short-term bonds) There is no stronger guarantee than the promise of an extremely stable, developed country that they will pay you in the future.
Last edited by tradri on Wed Apr 21, 2021 4:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by txhill »

tradri wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 2:22 pm
txhill wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 2:08 pm
And just to be clear: I think gold and bonds are both stupid investments. I have never put a single fraction of my portfolio into either. But i totally would buy bonds or gold today if I could buy them for what I believed to be a fraction of their real value.
We can argue about golds/bitcoins intrinsic value all we want, but comparing it to bonds is nonsense.

The purposen of high-quality, investment-grade bonds is to be the ultimate source of stability in a portfolio. (especially short-term bonds) There is no stronger guarantee than the promise of an extremely stable, developed country that they will pay you in the future.
I should clarify. Bonds are fine for an investor to have in their portfolio as they approach or are in retirement. But ultimately their value is dependent on the currency in which they are denominated not to lose value. Typically that has held true for the dollar. But it's my view, and it's not a radical view, that the dollar has not held its value under current monetary policy, which makes bonds a poor store of value right now. I have no doubt that bonds will return to being an important component for investors (and probably are the best choice for current retirees) but right now? A bad place to be if it can be avoided. But I digress I guess.
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by tradri »

txhill wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 2:28 pm
I should clarify. Bonds are fine for an investor to have in their portfolio as they approach or are in retirement. But ultimately their value is dependent on the currency in which they are denominated not to lose value. Typically that has held true for the dollar. But it's my view, and it's not a radical view, that the dollar has not held its value under current monetary policy, which makes bonds a poor store of value right now. I have no doubt that bonds will return to being an important component for investors (and probably are the best choice for current retirees) but right now? A bad place to be if it can be avoided. But I digress I guess.
This is the exact same argument made by gold-bugs.

That's why I "could" see Bitcoin approach golds market cap minus the demand from jewelry, industrial use cases and central banks.

Since golds investment-demand makes up roughly 40% of gold demand and the majority of that demand is coming from central banks, I see Bitcoin maybe reaching a market cap of 2-3 trillion, but not more than that.
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by OohLaLa »

Why are you guys assuming that future investment into crypto (BTC, in particular, I suppose?) must necessarily all (or primarily) come at the expense of investment in gold?

I started slowly investing in crypto. I never held gold.

And this is speaking as a run-of-the-mill retail investor. Different companies are apparently joining in, allocating some of their cash reserves to it. I doubt they moved it from gold.
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by tradri »

OohLaLa wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 4:57 pm Why are you guys assuming that future investment into crypto (BTC, in particular, I suppose?) must necessarily all (or primarily) come at the expense of investment in gold?

I started slowly investing in crypto. I never held gold.

And this is speaking as a run-of-the-mill retail investor. Different companies are apparently joining in, allocating some of their cash reserves to it. I doubt they moved it from gold.
Because its main selling point is being gold 2.0?

Michael Saylor is the biggest Bitcoin shill out there and Elon Musk is the biggest troll on Twitter.

Are there any serious companies considering to speculate on Bitcoin?
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by Nathan Drake »

If every bank and institution allocated just 5% of their holdings to Herbalife products, and Herbalife products were artificially scarce, then each Herbalife product could be worth $1M per box
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by OohLaLa »

tradri wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 5:03 pm
OohLaLa wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 4:57 pm Why are you guys assuming that future investment into crypto (BTC, in particular, I suppose?) must necessarily all (or primarily) come at the expense of investment in gold?

I started slowly investing in crypto. I never held gold.

And this is speaking as a run-of-the-mill retail investor. Different companies are apparently joining in, allocating some of their cash reserves to it. I doubt they moved it from gold.
Because its main selling point is being gold 2.0?

Michael Saylor is the biggest Bitcoin shill out there and Elon Musk is the biggest troll on Twitter.

Are there any serious companies considering to speculate on Bitcoin?
There was quite a bit of chatter around investment banks, as well. Also, it seems that fund management companies like Blackrock are looking into adopting crypto-related products into certain funds.

I admit I am not the best to offer details about this, as I haven't been closely following this space. One of the Bogleheads crypto high priests (ex: Prahasaurus) :wink: could probably offer a lot more insight.

I'm just saying crypto is no longer just the plaything of pimply-faced millenials, mining coins with their old graphics cards, in their parents' basement.
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HomerJ
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by HomerJ »

OohLaLa wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 5:21 pm
tradri wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 5:03 pm
OohLaLa wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 4:57 pm Why are you guys assuming that future investment into crypto (BTC, in particular, I suppose?) must necessarily all (or primarily) come at the expense of investment in gold?

I started slowly investing in crypto. I never held gold.

And this is speaking as a run-of-the-mill retail investor. Different companies are apparently joining in, allocating some of their cash reserves to it. I doubt they moved it from gold.
Because its main selling point is being gold 2.0?

Michael Saylor is the biggest Bitcoin shill out there and Elon Musk is the biggest troll on Twitter.

Are there any serious companies considering to speculate on Bitcoin?
There was quite a bit of chatter around investment banks, as well. Also, it seems that fund management companies like Blackrock are looking into adopting crypto-related products into certain funds.

I admit I am not the best to offer details about this, as I haven't been closely following this space. One of the Bogleheads crypto high priests (ex: Prahasaurus) :wink: could probably offer a lot more insight.

I'm just saying crypto is no longer just the plaything of pimply-faced millenials, mining coins with their old graphics cards, in their parents' basement.
Most of those are looking to be brokers for crypto, not own a bunch of crypto themselves.

They are looking to generate fees from being the middleman... It doesn't mean they believe in bitcoin itself. They just recognize that the crazy masses want to own it, so they figure might as well get some of the action.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
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tradri
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by tradri »

OohLaLa wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 5:21 pm I'm just saying crypto is no longer just the plaything of pimply-faced millenials, mining coins with their old graphics cards, in their parents' basement.
I wish I was around in those days. :wink:
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OohLaLa
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by OohLaLa »

tradri wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 5:30 pm
OohLaLa wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 5:21 pm I'm just saying crypto is no longer just the plaything of pimply-faced millenials, mining coins with their old graphics cards, in their parents' basement.
I wish I was around in those days. :wink:
Trust me, this millenial right here wishes he had put his hard hat on and his old cards to use, as well. :P
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by Prahasaurus »

HomerJ wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 2:00 pm
Prahasaurus wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 1:28 pmMy feeling is that BTC will achieve the status of digital gold in the short term (over the next 5 years or so). But that is only going to get BTC to 500k USD or so, plus/minus. It's a meme coin, after all, like Dogecoin. But a more serious one. But it lacks utility. Just like gold lacks utility. It's also a major strategic mistake to stay with Proof of Work (mining) over Proof of Stake. I think the environmental issues, although currently overblown, should not be discounted, especially as Bitcoin grows.
This is a very different story from the one you were pushing when you first started talking about bitcoin on this site.

Seems like you agree with many of us now that bitcoin has no utility.
Ethereum is going to be a major problem long term for Bitcoin. Because Ethereum has tremendous utility, and a hard currency (ETH) to finance transactions on that network. Ethereum is much more inclusive, already positioning itself as the primary transaction layer, with competing chains feeding into Ethereum (just look how all the others quickly try to develop a bridge to Ethereum, because they know what is where everything is happening). And by year end Ethereum should be Proof of Stake, so zero environmental issues.
Note that you've pulled ME closer to accepting Ethereum over the past year, even though I still don't know enough about it. But the little I know makes me think there might be something there as a base to build apps on.

I've made it clear it that Bitcoin, not block-chain, not Ethereum necessarily, is what I think is an obvious scam.
But BTC has a ways to run before most people understand this. Which is why I'm still very bullish on Bitcoin.
Part of the reason most people don't understand this is that you've made hundreds of posts (up until today) telling them that Bitcoin is awesome.

It's one way to invest. Recognize a Ponzi scheme, but get in early, and get out before the top and pump it up along the way. But hundreds of thousands of people are going to lose a ton of money when they get stuck at the top. I'm trying to protect them, and you're trying to make money off them.
My argument is more subtle that you represent above. Let's just say my thinking on Bitcoin has "evolved" over the past six months. I still think its awesome, one of the greatest innovations ever. It's a bit complex, but let me try to summarize here:

1 - Obviously I have no idea how this space will develop, I'm just speculating as someone who is very active within crypto. So take what I say with a grain of salt.

2 - I am optimistic on Bitcoin becoming a replacement for gold as an SOV. And I think the macroeconomic environment over the next decade will be relatively favorable to legitimate ways to preserve wealth as part of a balanced portfolio. If Bitcoin did not exist, I think gold would have an amazing decade ahead of it. But bottom line, Bitcoin will become the standard "gold" type investment, surpassing gold in market cap, at least the part of gold used for SOV (probably hard to calculate). Bitcoin is just better than gold in so many ways as an SOV. So Bitcoin will be a success over the short term (next 5 or 10 years?). It's not going anywhere.

3 - But as many thoughtful critics of Bitcoin here have said, I don't have gold in my portfolio now, why should I care about Bitcoin? Great question! My only answer would be our macroeconomic environment (money printing, coming universal incomes, etc.) should make Bitcoin (and gold) more attractive to many. But that is speculation, I really don't know.

4 - But even to reach parity with gold, we will see a BTC price of 300k to 500k USD, in my opinion. I do think that will happen, and so I'm still optimistic on Bitcoin.

5 - However. I am becoming more and more convinced that longer term (10 years?), Bitcoin has two major weak points: (1) its lack of utility when compared to Ethereum (and other smart contract projects like Cosmos, Solana and Polkadot). (2) its Proof of Work algorithm that is not as efficient as Proof of Stake, and wastes too many resources. So yes, the environmental argument against Bitcoin is, in my opinion, legitimate. What is argued here is typically hyperbole, but Bitcoin has an environmental problem if it stays with Proof of Work. Using green energy is great, but even better would be to use almost no energy in the first place...

6 - I have told crypto critics over and over again to actually use these protocols, especially Ethereum based applications. That is what is for me revolutionary here. I cannot see how anyone can use Aave or Uniswap or Synthetix and not be blown away about the potential of these Ethereum based applications. It's to me mind boggling. And then to go back to Bitcoin, which is just a digital shiny rock, well. It's sobering. Bitcoin and Dogecoin are similar in that they do little other than just exist. Again, gold is similar, a meme driven real world investment. So I'm not discounting memes! You could make the argument the US dollar is a meme. But there is not a huge difference in utility between Bitcoin and Dogecoin.

7 - So my vision is we continue to develop new decentralized applications on smart contract platforms like Ethereum and others. Ethereum will dominate, but it will be a multi-chain world for a long time (10 years?). Maybe forever. And Bitcoin will be the primary SOV within that ecosystem, but more and more of its transactions will be on other networks, primarily Ethereum. But over time, the risk to Bitcoin is people will say: Why is BTC our primary SOV when we are using it primarily on Ethereum, and we can simply use ETH? Why do I have to "wrap" BTC in order to give it utility? It's a wasted step. Let's just use ETH! After all, it's also a hard asset, but with massive utility. It's the "gas" that drives the entire network!

8 - The problem is that people here cannot do nuance with crypto (already a terrible word to describe this space, btw). Bitcoin is a completely different animal to Ethereum and other smart contract projects, although there is a bit of overlap. Bitcoin can be described as a "cryptocurrency," similar to Dogecoin or Litecoin. But ETH? Yes, it has those properties, but its tremendous value comes from its utility. And of course projects like Aave (with its AAVE token) and Synthetix (with its SNX token) are applications running on Ethereum that have their own "governance tokens," and hence function as rights on future income, i.e. equity. Now we are a long way from "crypto". It can be confusing.

9 - This is why I'm reluctant to say I'm pessimistic on Bitcoin long term. Because I strongly believe BTC will rise significantly over the next 5 years. And only then have issues. And it's possible Bitcoin will fix those issues, become "smarter" like Ethereum. That is what many hardcore Bitcoin supporters will say. So it's possible the issues I raised above will be solved. I just don't know. I'm only saying I'm skeptical.

10 - And because people's knowledge of this space is so superficial, arguing this type of nuance only confuses people more. They are looking for one "coin" that will win, and seem to have little time for learning about what is happening in this space, and how Aave is just a completely different animal from Bitcoin. The media doesn't help, either. And with so many people looking to "educate" others by hyping their own projects... There is too much noise, not enough signal.

11 - So to summarize, Bitcoin was a revolution, and its network status will keep it at the top, or near the top, for a long time. Perhaps forever. But if Bitcoin cannot generate more utility through its network, it could be replaced by Ethereum (or similar, but I feel Ethereum has such a massive head start it will be impossible to replace).

12 - When friends come to me to invest, I tell them 1/3 BTC, 1/3 ETH, and 1/3 "other". That advice still holds. Sadly, most want to just throw their money into the "other" category, looking to get rich quick. But whatever. My advice remains the same, and my portfolio is very similar. But my guess is in 5 years, my crypto portfolio will be more like 60% ETH, 35% Other, 5% Bitcoin. But, again, I can be, and likely am, totally wrong...
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by Prahasaurus »

txhill wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 2:20 pm
tradri wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 2:15 pm
Prahasaurus wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 1:28 pm
My feeling is that BTC will achieve the status of digital gold in the short term (over the next 5 years or so). But that is only going to get BTC to 500k USD or so, plus/minus. It's a meme coin, after all, like Dogecoin. But a more serious one. But it lacks utility. Just like gold lacks utility. It's also a major strategic mistake to stay with Proof of Work (mining) over Proof of Stake. I think the environmental issues, although currently overblown, should not be discounted, especially as Bitcoin grows.
The funny thing is how detached the market is from reality and how people are throwing around big numbers like its nothing.

For Bitcoin to reach $500k, it would have to surpass the market cap of gold. For that, it would have to convince all the central banks and jewelry producers (the main buyers of gold) to switch from gold to Bitcoin.

Even if everything did work out as planned and the world fully transitions in the following years, the maximum reward would "only" be 10x your investment. For me, the risk-return trade-off isn't there.
I agree to a point but disagree as to the maximum reward. I agree that gold is simply not going to go to 0 and all of its value pour into bitcoin. I think bitcoin eats gold's market share quite a lot but it's not like everyone is going to stop wearing gold jewelry or gifting gold as part of a cultural tradition, etc.

Rather I think the real value in bitcoin is in serving as an easily investible store of value and hedging instrument for large portfolios--something that is to some extent taken up by gold but also taken up by bonds or cash-like instruments. We are going to increasingly see institutional investors allocate small percentages of their portfolios to bitcoin that they previously would have put in gold, cash, bonds, other similar hedging investments. There is a huge demand for that that could take bitcoin well beyond a $10 trillion market cap. But I think that sort of shift will take many years to happen.
Yes, I agree. The SOV market will grow and change over the next 5-10 years (for a variety of reasons), and Bitcoin will be at the heart of it.
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by IRS-Gman »

Prahasaurus wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 10:47 pm A very good 4-page summary of Ethereum, just released, for those looking for general education (and how Ethereum compares to Bitcoin):

https://ethereumcashflow.com
Nice synopsis.

One point about Bitcoin that is rarely stated is how vulnerable it is to an attack. Only $5 billion secures the Bitcoin network which is valued at $1.1 trillion. Justin Drake notes that Eth2 will be magnitudes more secure and efficient than Bitcoin.
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by Prahasaurus »

txhill wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 1:44 pm
Prahasaurus wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 1:28 pm The funny thing is that I'm probably considered one of the biggest Bitcoin supporters at this site, but I have real issues with BTC. So much so that I will reduce my position over 2021. Still keeping perhaps 3% of my net worth in BTC, but no more.

But most of the arguments against BTC are, in my opinion, weak sauce. It being overly concentrated in a small % of people is definitely one of those weak arguments.

My feeling is that BTC will achieve the status of digital gold in the short term (over the next 5 years or so). But that is only going to get BTC to 500k USD or so, plus/minus. It's a meme coin, after all, like Dogecoin. But a more serious one. But it lacks utility. Just like gold lacks utility. It's also a major strategic mistake to stay with Proof of Work (mining) over Proof of Stake. I think the environmental issues, although currently overblown, should not be discounted, especially as Bitcoin grows.

And Bitcoin's culture is toxic. Most hardcore Bitcoin supporters believe everything but Bitcoin is going to fail, that crypto is really just Bitcoin, everything else is a scam. There is no sense of inclusivity in Bitcoin. This tribalism exists in all projects to some degree, but with Bitcoin it's off the charts. That is not the environment to encourage cross chain cooperation. And for the next decade, there will definitely be multiple L1 chains.

Ethereum is going to be a major problem long term for Bitcoin. Because Ethereum has tremendous utility, and a hard currency (ETH) to finance transactions on that network. Ethereum is much more inclusive, already positioning itself as the primary transaction layer, with competing chains feeding into Ethereum (just look how all the others quickly try to develop a bridge to Ethereum, because they know what is where everything is happening). And by year end Ethereum should be Proof of Stake, so zero environmental issues.

But BTC has a ways to run before most people understand this. Which is why I'm still very bullish on Bitcoin. However, if I could only own one token for the next 10 years, it would be ETH. In fact, I almost certainly will be owning ETH for the next 10 years... :-)
Interesting take. I'm very bullish on both BTC and ETH (holding them in about 70-30 ratio, 15% of my portfolio, although I'm slowly building up to 20%). For different reasons of course. But if I had to hold a single coin for 10 years, I'd want BTC because it's got such a grip on the store of value narrative. ETH seems to have the greatest potential for future growth but it's hard to predict with certainty who will have won that space 10 years from now.
Yes, exactly. Bitcoin is the safer investment, and I believe it will rise significantly from here. Ethereum has the greatest potential (by far), but it also carries more risk. Place your bets accordingly!
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by IRS-Gman »

Prahasaurus wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 11:32 pm
HomerJ wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 2:00 pm
Prahasaurus wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 1:28 pmMy feeling is that BTC will achieve the status of digital gold in the short term (over the next 5 years or so). But that is only going to get BTC to 500k USD or so, plus/minus. It's a meme coin, after all, like Dogecoin. But a more serious one. But it lacks utility. Just like gold lacks utility. It's also a major strategic mistake to stay with Proof of Work (mining) over Proof of Stake. I think the environmental issues, although currently overblown, should not be discounted, especially as Bitcoin grows.
This is a very different story from the one you were pushing when you first started talking about bitcoin on this site.

Seems like you agree with many of us now that bitcoin has no utility.
Ethereum is going to be a major problem long term for Bitcoin. Because Ethereum has tremendous utility, and a hard currency (ETH) to finance transactions on that network. Ethereum is much more inclusive, already positioning itself as the primary transaction layer, with competing chains feeding into Ethereum (just look how all the others quickly try to develop a bridge to Ethereum, because they know what is where everything is happening). And by year end Ethereum should be Proof of Stake, so zero environmental issues.
Note that you've pulled ME closer to accepting Ethereum over the past year, even though I still don't know enough about it. But the little I know makes me think there might be something there as a base to build apps on.

I've made it clear it that Bitcoin, not block-chain, not Ethereum necessarily, is what I think is an obvious scam.
But BTC has a ways to run before most people understand this. Which is why I'm still very bullish on Bitcoin.
Part of the reason most people don't understand this is that you've made hundreds of posts (up until today) telling them that Bitcoin is awesome.

It's one way to invest. Recognize a Ponzi scheme, but get in early, and get out before the top and pump it up along the way. But hundreds of thousands of people are going to lose a ton of money when they get stuck at the top. I'm trying to protect them, and you're trying to make money off them.
My argument is more subtle that you represent above. Let's just say my thinking on Bitcoin has "evolved" over the past six months. I still think its awesome, one of the greatest innovations ever. It's a bit complex, but let me try to summarize here:

1 - Obviously I have no idea how this space will develop, I'm just speculating as someone who is very active within crypto. So take what I say with a grain of salt.

2 - I am optimistic on Bitcoin becoming a replacement for gold as an SOV. And I think the macroeconomic environment over the next decade will be relatively favorable to legitimate ways to preserve wealth as part of a balanced portfolio. If Bitcoin did not exist, I think gold would have an amazing decade ahead of it. But bottom line, Bitcoin will become the standard "gold" type investment, surpassing gold in market cap, at least the part of gold used for SOV (probably hard to calculate). Bitcoin is just better than gold in so many ways as an SOV. So Bitcoin will be a success over the short term (next 5 or 10 years?). It's not going anywhere.

3 - But as many thoughtful critics of Bitcoin here have said, I don't have gold in my portfolio now, why should I care about Bitcoin? Great question! My only answer would be our macroeconomic environment (money printing, coming universal incomes, etc.) should make Bitcoin (and gold) more attractive to many. But that is speculation, I really don't know.

4 - But even to reach parity with gold, we will see a BTC price of 300k to 500k USD, in my opinion. I do think that will happen, and so I'm still optimistic on Bitcoin.

5 - However. I am becoming more and more convinced that longer term (10 years?), Bitcoin has two major weak points: (1) its lack of utility when compared to Ethereum (and other smart contract projects like Cosmos, Solana and Polkadot). (2) its Proof of Work algorithm that is not as efficient as Proof of Stake, and wastes too many resources. So yes, the environmental argument against Bitcoin is, in my opinion, legitimate. What is argued here is typically hyperbole, but Bitcoin has an environmental problem if it stays with Proof of Work. Using green energy is great, but even better would be to use almost no energy in the first place...

6 - I have told crypto critics over and over again to actually use these protocols, especially Ethereum based applications. That is what is for me revolutionary here. I cannot see how anyone can use Aave or Uniswap or Synthetix and not be blown away about the potential of these Ethereum based applications. It's to me mind boggling. And then to go back to Bitcoin, which is just a digital shiny rock, well. It's sobering. Bitcoin and Dogecoin are similar in that they do little other than just exist. Again, gold is similar, a meme driven real world investment. So I'm not discounting memes! You could make the argument the US dollar is a meme. But there is not a huge difference in utility between Bitcoin and Dogecoin.

7 - So my vision is we continue to develop new decentralized applications on smart contract platforms like Ethereum and others. Ethereum will dominate, but it will be a multi-chain world for a long time (10 years?). Maybe forever. And Bitcoin will be the primary SOV within that ecosystem, but more and more of its transactions will be on other networks, primarily Ethereum. But over time, the risk to Bitcoin is people will say: Why is BTC our primary SOV when we are using it primarily on Ethereum, and we can simply use ETH? Why do I have to "wrap" BTC in order to give it utility? It's a wasted step. Let's just use ETH! After all, it's also a hard asset, but with massive utility. It's the "gas" that drives the entire network!
#7 is an excellent point. BTC reminds of me of the Model T--it was an upgrade in transport from horse and carriage when it was first introduced. Assuming all goes as planned, ETH will be like an electric Porche. It's the next step in the evolution.
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tradri
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by tradri »

Prahasaurus wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 11:32 pm
4 - But even to reach parity with gold, we will see a BTC price of 300k to 500k USD, in my opinion. I do think that will happen, and so I'm still optimistic on Bitcoin.
I will go on record and say that Bitcoin will not surpass gold's market cap in my lifetime. :sharebeer
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by alluringreality »

tradri wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 6:27 am
Prahasaurus wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 11:32 pm
4 - But even to reach parity with gold, we will see a BTC price of 300k to 500k USD, in my opinion. I do think that will happen, and so I'm still optimistic on Bitcoin.
I will go on record and say that Bitcoin will not surpass gold's market cap in my lifetime. :sharebeer
You think there's a temporary market cap on an asset with built-in 4 year speculation cycles, where owners can borrow say 50% online against their current holdings on an upswing, and there's no regulation against social media like the following? I'm not saying I agree with the people calling for it to happen this cycle, but the next cycles are in roughly only 3 and 7 years. To this point the halving cycle peaks have been fairly extreme from the prior high, before the declines.

Here is some of the latest from Michael Saylor:
"It is time for #Bitcoin to replace #Gold."
https://twitter.com/michael_saylor/stat ... 9100574729

It's not very often I agree with someone having #BTC in their Twitter profile, yet based on my last look at commodity prices I think the following reply is probably close and "Endless Credit = volatile prices" seems reasonable.
https://twitter.com/DwightEichorn/statu ... 9342340096
Targets: 15% I Bonds, 15% EE Bonds, 45% US Stock (Mid & Small Tilt), 25% Ex-US Stock (Small Tilt)
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tradri
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Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Post by tradri »

alluringreality wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 7:54 am You think there's a temporary market cap on an asset with built-in 4 year speculation cycles, where owners can borrow say 50% online against their current holdings on an upswing, and there's no regulation against social media like the following? I'm not saying I agree with the people calling for it to happen this cycle, but the next cycles are in roughly only 3 and 7 years. To this point the halving cycle peaks have been fairly extreme from the prior high, before the declines.

Here is some of the latest from Michael Saylor:
"It is time for #Bitcoin to replace #Gold."
https://twitter.com/michael_saylor/stat ... 9100574729

It's not very often I agree with someone having #BTC in their Twitter profile, yet based on my last look at commodity prices I think the following reply is probably close and "Endless Credit = volatile prices" seems reasonable.
https://twitter.com/DwightEichorn/statu ... 9342340096
The market has always been the final judge. :wink: https://8marketcap.com/
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