U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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HanSolo
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HanSolo »

dogagility wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 4:07 pm
mrspock wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:31 pm
watchnerd wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:17 pm
rchmx1 wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:14 pm If any of this stuff was still theoretical to you previously, 2020 was a master class it making it tangible and proving how well-founded all of this is.
Nah, 2020 was elementary school.

The crash wasn't that deep and the rebound was super quick.
It wasn’t evident this was the case in March, emotions were palpable on here. Also other corrections were kindergarten in a different sense: the bleed was slow, in 2020 folks saw 35% of their portfolios vaporized in weeks — very jarring for many.
Agree. The "world was ending" in March. :oops:
Perhaps it was a "master class" for me. I learned that not even a world-ending scenario can take the market down to it's long-term median valuations (such as by Shiller PE, price-to-book, etc.)... except a large meteor... and maybe not even that!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

"Soaring retail sales and a sharp drop in jobless claims are the latest reflection of a quickening recovery and suggest a year of remarkable growth." link
"I think we may see a return to full employment next year." -- Janet Yellen, March 23rd 2021
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by abuss368 »

I am backing up the truck soon! 😂😂

Tony
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by JD2775 »

This is the first year I was ever able to front-load my Roth on Jan 1st. So far it's paid off nicely. We will see how the rest of the year plays out.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by watchnerd »

The craziest part about today's soaring in my port:

LTT (VGLT) up 1.5%, beating US TSM

...oh, and it beat ARKK, too (+1.4%).
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by OohLaLa »

abuss368 wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 7:11 pm I am backing up the truck soon! 😂😂

Tony
Me too, but, in comparison to you, I just have one of those USPS mini-trucks:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... _Truck.jpg
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HanSolo
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HanSolo »

watchnerd wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 11:27 pm The craziest part about today's soaring in my port:

LTT (VGLT) up 1.5%, beating US TSM

...oh, and it beat ARKK, too (+1.4%).
Looks like pretty much everything went up... or, it all stayed about the same, it's just that cash went down.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Barefootgirl »

melt up indeed! almost reminds me of the heady days of irrational exuberance
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Blue456 »

OohLaLa wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 1:20 am
abuss368 wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 7:11 pm I am backing up the truck soon! 😂😂

Tony
Me too, but, in comparison to you, I just have one of those USPS mini-trucks:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... _Truck.jpg
Looks like you are getting an upgraded truck soon:
https://www.businessinsider.com/post-of ... act-2021-2
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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord »

OohLaLa wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 1:20 am
abuss368 wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 7:11 pm I am backing up the truck soon! 😂😂

Tony
Me too, but, in comparison to you, I just have one of those USPS mini-trucks:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... _Truck.jpg
So only about a quarter million?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

We’re seeing green shoots in the futures market.

Looking like another good day again.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Asia-Pacific and Europe are looking green also.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Forester hasn't made a prediction lately.

He/she needs to refill the tank.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

Nasdaq furiously clawing its way upward despite the 10yr surge. These two have turned into diabolical enemies, like Beowulf and Grendel locked in battle.
"I think we may see a return to full employment next year." -- Janet Yellen, March 23rd 2021
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord »

Robot Monster wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:04 am Nasdaq furiously clawing its way upward despite the 10yr surge. These two have turned into diabolical enemies, like Beowulf and Grendel locked in battle.
I think at some point people will realize this narrative doesn't work for Big Tech with huge amounts of cash on their balances sheets, if they haven't already.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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Mixed market. Dow and S&P 500 are up and the Nazz is down.
A fool and his money are good for business.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

TheTimeLord wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:20 am
Robot Monster wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:04 am Nasdaq furiously clawing its way upward despite the 10yr surge. These two have turned into diabolical enemies, like Beowulf and Grendel locked in battle.
I think at some point people will realize this narrative doesn't work for Big Tech with huge amounts of cash on their balances sheets, if they haven't already.
I remember last year Mohamed A. El-Erian advocated that people invest in companies that have great balance sheets because they'd be able to survive a prolonged downturn, but now that things are no longer precarious, can we not ditch the safer companies in favor of the riskier ones?
"I think we may see a return to full employment next year." -- Janet Yellen, March 23rd 2021
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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TheTimeLord wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:20 am
Robot Monster wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:04 am Nasdaq furiously clawing its way upward despite the 10yr surge. These two have turned into diabolical enemies, like Beowulf and Grendel locked in battle.
I think at some point people will realize this narrative doesn't work for Big Tech with huge amounts of cash on their balances sheets, if they haven't already.
Can you elaborate?

How does this change the DCF equation output, which varies by interest rate, and its implication for high PE?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord »

watchnerd wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:29 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:20 am
Robot Monster wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:04 am Nasdaq furiously clawing its way upward despite the 10yr surge. These two have turned into diabolical enemies, like Beowulf and Grendel locked in battle.
I think at some point people will realize this narrative doesn't work for Big Tech with huge amounts of cash on their balances sheets, if they haven't already.
Can you elaborate?

How does this change the DCF equation, which varies by interest rate, and its implication for high PE?
From my point of view these companies don't have to borrow to expand business or make acquisitions. Also, rising rates means they will collect more interest on their cash hordes. Of course I could be totally wrong.

This would be an example of my what I am referring to:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/angelauyeu ... ion-spree/
Microsoft had a cash pile of more than $130 billion as of December.
Microsoft’s purchase of Nuance, announced Monday, includes $16 billion in cash and $3.7 billion in assumed debt.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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TheTimeLord wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:36 am

From my point of view these companies don't have to borrow to expand business or make acquisitions.
How does that plug into the DCF equation?

Are you going to give some coefficient to earnings growth?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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TheTimeLord wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:36 am Also, rising rates means they will collect more interest on their cash hordes.
The rise on the 10yr doesn't translate to a rise in short-term yields, though. The 10yr could be at 2%-3% while the Fed funds rate remains zero.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rockstar »

Gold and stocks going to the moon. A little pull back in QQQ today, but that makes sense after yesterday. Of course, this ETF has been pretty volatile this year. VOO is far less volatile. Maybe I buy some UPRO after my dividends hit at the end of the month.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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Robot Monster wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:46 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:36 am Also, rising rates means they will collect more interest on their cash hordes.
The rise on the 10yr doesn't translate to a rise in short-term yields, though. The 10yr could be at 2%-3% while the Fed funds rate remains zero.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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TheTimeLord wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:12 am
Robot Monster wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:46 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:36 am Also, rising rates means they will collect more interest on their cash hordes.
The rise on the 10yr doesn't translate to a rise in short-term yields, though. The 10yr could be at 2%-3% while the Fed funds rate remains zero.
:confused
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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Robot Monster wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:46 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:36 am Also, rising rates means they will collect more interest on their cash hordes.
The rise on the 10yr doesn't translate to a rise in short-term yields, though. The 10yr could be at 2%-3% while the Fed funds rate remains zero.
Depends on the will of the Feb, they can still exert yield curve control such that 10 yr won't be too far away from shorter term overnight/1year yield. Of course, predicting interest rate trend (short or long) in the last decade or so has been a fool's game due to so many central bank interference.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rockstar »

Money Flow Index is showing both VOO and QQQ as overbought. This hasn't happened in a while.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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jarjarM wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:48 am
Robot Monster wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:46 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:36 am Also, rising rates means they will collect more interest on their cash hordes.
The rise on the 10yr doesn't translate to a rise in short-term yields, though. The 10yr could be at 2%-3% while the Fed funds rate remains zero.
Depends on the will of the Feb, they can still exert yield curve control such that 10 yr won't be too far away from shorter term overnight/1year yield. Of course, predicting interest rate trend (short or long) in the last decade or so has been a fool's game due to so many central bank interference.
Very true. Just mean to talk about the scenario where the 10yr does go up...
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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rockstar wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:49 am Money Flow Index is showing both VOO and QQQ as overbought. This hasn't happened in a while.
What does 'overbought' even really mean, anyway?

The price went up 'too fast'?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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watchnerd wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:56 am
rockstar wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:49 am Money Flow Index is showing both VOO and QQQ as overbought. This hasn't happened in a while.
What does 'overbought' even really mean, anyway?

The price went up 'too fast'?
Overbought Definition link :wink:
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by LadyGeek »

With regards to some earlier comments about property valuation, please stay on-topic.
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Post by SuperTrooper87 »

Robot Monster wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:48 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:12 am
Robot Monster wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:46 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:36 am Also, rising rates means they will collect more interest on their cash hordes.
The rise on the 10yr doesn't translate to a rise in short-term yields, though. The 10yr could be at 2%-3% while the Fed funds rate remains zero.
:confused
How does this happen? Selling to himself or something?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by LadyGeek »

I removed an off-topic interchange regarding valuation of an NJ real estate property.

Please stay on-topic.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Vtsax100 »

Back on topic. Nice slow burn up. Might be turning into a melt up to end the week.

:sharebeer :moneybag
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What a ridiculous few weeks. Funny money!
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MiddleOfTheRoad wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 2:51 pm What a ridiculous few weeks.
...only because the recovery is ridiculous -- ridiculously good! A mind blowing year of growth might be sitting at our feet, while at the same time both monetary and fiscal stimulus is bananas ridiculous, juicing dem stonks straight to the moon!
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Vtsax100 wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 2:43 pm Back on topic. Nice slow burn up. Might be turning into a melt up to end the week.

:sharebeer :moneybag
Very nice close! :sharebeer
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Post by Silverado »

All I did is rebalance low five figures to a US Bond Index in my 401k that executed at yesterday’s closing price. I am close to starting a slow glide towards retirement allocation and am trying to hold things under control every couple months. I didn’t realize it would push it up quite this much today, or else I would have alerted everyone last night.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HanSolo »

Robot Monster wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:27 am I remember last year Mohamed A. El-Erian advocated that people invest in companies that have great balance sheets because they'd be able to survive a prolonged downturn, but now that things are no longer precarious, can we not ditch the safer companies in favor of the riskier ones?
Some think things are no longer precarious and some don't (e.g., the people who administer emergency-type measures like ZIRP/QE). I'd be more confident in an economy that can stand on its own two feet.

In other news, Wednesday turned out to be a good day to rebalance away from commodities. So I did. Since the consensus seems to be that we're headed for inflation, it could be that the increases are already baked in.
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Post by Broken Man 1999 »

Another ALH for portfolio, sweet! Even with some red in the mix.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Hoongajji »

To the recent posts,

i read a story about a company that thought it needed a certain volume of shares traded per day to stay listed on the exchange.

It traded (bought and sold) with “itself” to keep that volume. It was discovered and fined.

Certain corporations today have a P/B ratio off the charts. The valuations of the same corporations are suspicious to be modest.

The US Stock market...returning to the soaring original post.

Nasdaq has increased 10,000 points from 2014 to 2021 only 7 years! Yah Hoo!

In its entire lifetime prior to that Nasdaq increased from zero or whatever to 3800.

We live in a charmed life. :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :sharebeer

Gonna spend my stimmies on GME and TSLA.

YOLO!

Easy money!

Free! :)
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Post by corp_sharecropper »

Hoongajji wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 6:49 pm To the recent posts,

i read a story about a company that thought it needed a certain volume of shares traded per day to stay listed on the exchange.

It traded (bought and sold) with “itself” to keep that volume. It was discovered and fined.

Certain corporations today have a P/B ratio off the charts. The valuations of the same corporations are suspicious to be modest.

The US Stock market...returning to the soaring original post.

Nasdaq has increased 10,000 points from 2014 to 2021 only 7 years! Yah Hoo!

In its entire lifetime prior to that Nasdaq increased from zero or whatever to 3800.


We live in a charmed life. :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :sharebeer

Gonna spend my stimmies on GME and TSLA.

YOLO!

Easy money!

Free! :)
You need to use percentages, using absolute values is misleading
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Hoongajji »

Company 1 sales at $524 billion per year.

Company 2 sales at $221 billion per year.

Company 3 sales at $172 billion per year.

Company 4 sales at $58 billion per year.

Company #5 sales at $32 billion per year.

All from 2020 10K annual reports.

For the percentage guru...company #2 is valued at over $2 Trillion?

Company #5 reissued and introduced $12 billion in new shares in 2021.

Company #5 valuation is 30% more than company #1.

Spitball numbers on a Friday night...what companies...what value your index?

:moneybag :sharebeer

Party time!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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Hoongajji wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 7:33 pm Company 1 sales at $524 billion per year.

Company 2 sales at $221 billion per year.

Company 3 sales at $172 billion per year.

Company 4 sales at $58 billion per year.

Company #5 sales at $32 billion per year.

All from 2020 10K annual reports.

For the percentage guru...company #2 is valued at over $2 Trillion?

Company #5 reissued and introduced $12 billion in new shares in 2021.

Company #5 valuation is 30% more than company #1.

Spitball numbers on a Friday night...what companies...what value your index?

:moneybag :sharebeer

Party time!
Oh, sheesh...

Who hacked my chatbot to make it post gibberish?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rockstar »

watchnerd wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:56 am
rockstar wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:49 am Money Flow Index is showing both VOO and QQQ as overbought. This hasn't happened in a while.
What does 'overbought' even really mean, anyway?

The price went up 'too fast'?
It's when the money flow index breaks 80. It's an actual index.

https://www.fidelity.com/learning-cente ... -guide/MFI

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/mfi.asp
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by watchnerd »

rockstar wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:33 pm
watchnerd wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:56 am
rockstar wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:49 am Money Flow Index is showing both VOO and QQQ as overbought. This hasn't happened in a while.
What does 'overbought' even really mean, anyway?

The price went up 'too fast'?
It's when the money flow index breaks 80. It's an actual index.

https://www.fidelity.com/learning-cente ... -guide/MFI

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/mfi.asp
What real world problem is that supposed to create or represent?
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Post by TheTimeLord »

Following the White Rabbit. The journey continues.

“Tyr!”
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Post by Forester »

Chinese stocks are seriously lagging global stocks; last two times this happened was Q4 2018 & Q1 2020. Canary in the coalmine.
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Post by HanSolo »

Forester wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:10 pm Chinese stocks are seriously lagging global stocks; last two times this happened was Q4 2018 & Q1 2020. Canary in the coalmine.
Also 2Q 2010, and 3Q 2015.

Those pesky canaries... they've predicted 8 out of the last 4 bear markets.

(Not that I'm particularly bullish... just not a fan of canaries.)

I see your 2021 prediction in the Boglehead contest, 4795. The canaries would like to have a word with you.
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Post by watchnerd »

Forester wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:10 pm Chinese stocks are seriously lagging global stocks; last two times this happened was Q4 2018 & Q1 2020. Canary in the coalmine.
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Post by Blue456 »

Anybody else thinks that we may have a beginning of roaring twenties?
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