When would you buy cryptocurrency?

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bogledogle
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by bogledogle »

watchnerd wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 7:14 pm
chinchin wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 7:03 pm

"Tesla will not be selling any Bitcoin"

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/139 ... 43203?s=21
From the Twitter feed:
Why would you tweet this!!! bitcoin has now gone down and i have lost $104,000! i put my life savings into it thinking it would make me rich... crypto is a scam, im never buying bitcoin or anything again. THANKS ELON!
Somebody tell that guy on twitter to buy the dip.
bgf
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by bgf »

When using dollars to purchase it would solve a problem for me.
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whereskyle
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by whereskyle »

When Elon Musk says it's okay, I guess
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Zeno
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by Zeno »

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qwertyjazz
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by qwertyjazz »

watchnerd wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 8:14 am
SuperSaver wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 8:08 am LAST WEEK, FIRST TIME. ON MAY 5TH.
LONG TIME SKEPTIC. Refused to believe. Then did some research.

Put $5K in ETH, and assorted Alt Coins. Already up 20%.
My questions:
What now?
Do I hold forever?
Do I put more money in at rising prices?
Do I wait for bust and buy more?


These questions are unanswerable once you have taken the plunge.
I just hold a DIY index of various cryptos at market weight.

Then I don't have to answer those questions.

I plan to rebalance the index as much as I can without selling, just with new quarterly contributions. So there will be some drift, I'm sure.
Why would there be drift? Shouldn’t it act like a market weighted index?
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qwertyjazz
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by qwertyjazz »

TheLaughingCow wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 2:55 am For those who own no crypto. Under what conditions would you consider exchanging some USD for crypto?

Edit: This is a thought experiment. The point is to challenge Bogleheads' existing beliefs. At one point bonds were considered a safe investment and common stocks were regarded as excessively risky. Yet today the family who held stocks for the last 100 years is substantially richer than the family which held bonds. I do not want to be so attached to dogma that I miss fundamental shifts in the way the world works.

There is a point at which everyone would hold crypto, Boglehead or not. For example if your salary were paid in crypto, and the dollar was worthless, you would have no choice. I am asking, at what point would you decide there is some merit to holding some crypto "just in case" it really is the next big thing?

If you're going to answer "never", please just don't respond. This post is for people who don't own crypto, who can genuinely imagine a situation where they might need to get some. Saying you would rather starve to death than swap to a new economic system and use crypto is disingenuous and goes against the spirit of the question.
I want there to be a clear winner or set of winners. This seems to much like new technology at this point. There is no ‘blue ocean’ of creating a new coin. Coins have not worked out their long term value proposition. I think there may be long term winners. I am just not interested in playing games with market swings and trading short term. If I were, I think one could make money easier on coins than more established stocks (more dumb money on both sides of trades). I am more a buy and hold and have too much to do with my day job to really learn trading. I think coins are not stable markets. If I was going to learn trading though, I am more likely to learn collectibles (personal preference not economic theory driven).
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by watchnerd »

qwertyjazz wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 8:57 pm Why would there be drift? Shouldn’t it act like a market weighted index?
1. Because the 16 holdings I have represent 68% of the total market cap of crypto, not 100%

2. Because, for tax reasons, the alt coins should be rebalanced with purchases as much as possible, as opposed to sales
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by qwertyjazz »

watchnerd wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 9:06 pm
qwertyjazz wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 8:57 pm Why would there be drift? Shouldn’t it act like a market weighted index?
1. Because the 16 holdings I have represent 68% of the total market cap of crypto, not 100%

2. Because, for tax reasons, the alt coins should be rebalanced with purchases as much as possible, as opposed to sales
If they are originally bought at market weights, they should stay at market weights for those 16 (unless you add others). If one increases in value, then that increases the percentage of your total ownership. This is basically the theory of owning the SP 500 or any index. It does not require any future purchases or sales.
You basically have the watch nerd 16 crypto index fund.
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by watchnerd »

qwertyjazz wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 9:10 pm

If they are originally bought at market weights, they should stay at market weights for those 16 (unless you add others). If one increases in value, then that increases the percentage of your total ownership. This is basically the theory of owning the SP 500 or any index. It does not require any future purchases or sales.
You basically have the watch nerd 16 crypto index fund.
It certainly does if I want to keep adding to it every quarter.

If I don't, I won't be able to keep it at market weight relative to the rest of the port as stock and bond investment contributions come in.
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by qwertyjazz »

watchnerd wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 9:14 pm
qwertyjazz wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 9:10 pm

If they are originally bought at market weights, they should stay at market weights for those 16 (unless you add others). If one increases in value, then that increases the percentage of your total ownership. This is basically the theory of owning the SP 500 or any index. It does not require any future purchases or sales.
You basically have the watch nerd 16 crypto index fund.
It certainly does if I want to keep adding to it every quarter.

If I don't, I won't be able to keep it at market weight relative to the rest of the port as stock and bond investment contributions come in.
Try again
If you just add stock and bonds to that mix and only buy all of them at market weight there will be no drift
If on the other hand if you want to hold something by percentage rather than market weight (like stocks at a fixed percentage of your assets) then yeah there will be drift
Do you believe in having an AA creating that drift? I think that may be what you mean.
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watchnerd
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by watchnerd »

qwertyjazz wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 9:24 pm

Try again
If you just add stock and bonds to that mix and only buy all of them at market weight there will be no drift
If on the other hand if you want to hold something by percentage rather than market weight (like stocks at a fixed percentage of your assets) then yeah there will be drift
Do you believe in having an AA creating that drift? I think that may be what you mean.
Let's try again so you get it.

We're not contributing to crypto every pay period, like we are to stocks and bonds, so the AA will drift.
Last edited by watchnerd on Wed May 12, 2021 9:53 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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JHU ALmuni
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by JHU ALmuni »

Probably now is a good time, the market is very volatile but long term seems going up. I'd start buy putting some in the top coins like BTC, ETH, LTC, XRP, and then some in the cheaper coins like Doge.
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by asset_chaos »

Q: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

A: Long after they are mainstream transactional currencies---if they ever get there---rather than speculations.

The answer is essentially the same one as to the question, when would I exchange USD for Indonesian rupiah. Answer, if I ever go to Indonesia and need some rupiah to spend.
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livelovelaugh00
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by livelovelaugh00 »

Texanbybirth wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 8:36 am
SuperSaver wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 8:08 am LAST WEEK, FIRST TIME. ON MAY 5TH.
LONG TIME SKEPTIC. Refused to believe. Then did some research.

Put $5K in ETH, and assorted Alt Coins. Already up 20%.
My questions:
What now?
Do I hold forever?
Do I put more money in at rising prices?
Do I wait for bust and buy more?


These questions are unanswerable once you have taken the plunge.
With you on ETH, except I dabbled in BTC/LTC back in 2017 and lost $370 out of $500. I've learned about/watched ETH for (4) years now. All I can do is kick myself for not acting sooner. Oh well! :beer
Two or three years ago, there's a cover article titled Blockchain on Fortune magazine. I flipped to the page and planned to read it. I did read it. However I regret I did not google it to read more. Where was my curiosity?? Lesson learned not to brush the new things away without due diligence.
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by tomsense76 »

watchnerd wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 5:18 pm
tomsense76 wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 5:09 pm Probably when crypto is able to hold an ETF. I could see some value in holding something like VTI outside a brokerage (just as some people hang onto paper I Bonds in a safe at home for example). To me this is the interesting thing about crypto; the ability to own assets in a decentralized fashion. I get the sense we are probably close to that point (and idk maybe some of the crypto enthusiast on this thread could make that happen), but am not engaged enough in the space to know exactly how close that might be
There has been discussion about using NFTs to create bonds.
Interesting. Have seen the threads on staking, but not this.

Do you happen to have a link? Tried searching "NFT bond", but didn't find much.
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by Prahasaurus »

Wiggums wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 7:35 pm One tweet today by Elon Musk and Bitcoin dropped 15.5%. Cryptocurrency is too unstable to be used like the dollar at this stage.
How much did USDC fall against the dollar?
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bi0hazard
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by bi0hazard »

1. If/when “crypto” stops being a pyramid scheme and starts acting like a usable currency. Don’t see this happening anytime soon.

2. If/when fomo overrides my better judgment, which I presume is the case for vast majority of so called “investors”.
Disclaimer: I'm not very smart, and this is just my hypothesis.
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by investuntilimrich »

I strongly suspect for the people saying they wished they had paid attention earlier, more buying opportunities will be coming. When stocks crash, cryptos will surely crash too.
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by Texanbybirth »

livelovelaugh00 wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 11:31 pm
Texanbybirth wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 8:36 am
SuperSaver wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 8:08 am LAST WEEK, FIRST TIME. ON MAY 5TH.
LONG TIME SKEPTIC. Refused to believe. Then did some research.

Put $5K in ETH, and assorted Alt Coins. Already up 20%.
My questions:
What now?
Do I hold forever?
Do I put more money in at rising prices?
Do I wait for bust and buy more?


These questions are unanswerable once you have taken the plunge.
With you on ETH, except I dabbled in BTC/LTC back in 2017 and lost $370 out of $500. I've learned about/watched ETH for (4) years now. All I can do is kick myself for not acting sooner. Oh well! :beer
Two or three years ago, there's a cover article titled Blockchain on Fortune magazine. I flipped to the page and planned to read it. I did read it. However I regret I did not google it to read more. Where was my curiosity?? Lesson learned not to brush the new things away without due diligence.
Lesson learned for you and me, eh?! The key is not to let that lesson turn into (a) wallowing regret, and (b) irrational decisions NOW.

(My job prevents me from dabbling in single stocks, so in my investing career I've never "been able" to learn that same lesson in the stock market. Knowing my personality and ignorance, I'm sure it has prevented me from losing my shirt!)
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typical.investor
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by typical.investor »

I will buy cryptos when there is a system in place to more effectively prevent them from being used in cyber/ransomeware attacks such as the one that shut off fuel out East. Call it socially responsible investing. If tracking payment were so easy, cryptos wouldn’t be the desired payment method.

I was so close to dropping $100 k in Ethereum but on second review ...
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by nisiprius »

Prahasaurus wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 1:12 am
Wiggums wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 7:35 pm One tweet today by Elon Musk and Bitcoin dropped 15.5%. Cryptocurrency is too unstable to be used like the dollar at this stage.
How much did USDC fall against the dollar?
Tesla won't accept USDC as payment for buying a Tesla. Why do you think that is?
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by Slacker »

qwertyjazz wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 9:04 pm
TheLaughingCow wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 2:55 am For those who own no crypto. Under what conditions would you consider exchanging some USD for crypto?

Edit: This is a thought experiment. The point is to challenge Bogleheads' existing beliefs. At one point bonds were considered a safe investment and common stocks were regarded as excessively risky. Yet today the family who held stocks for the last 100 years is substantially richer than the family which held bonds. I do not want to be so attached to dogma that I miss fundamental shifts in the way the world works.

There is a point at which everyone would hold crypto, Boglehead or not. For example if your salary were paid in crypto, and the dollar was worthless, you would have no choice. I am asking, at what point would you decide there is some merit to holding some crypto "just in case" it really is the next big thing?

If you're going to answer "never", please just don't respond. This post is for people who don't own crypto, who can genuinely imagine a situation where they might need to get some. Saying you would rather starve to death than swap to a new economic system and use crypto is disingenuous and goes against the spirit of the question.
I want there to be a clear winner or set of winners. This seems to much like new technology at this point. There is no ‘blue ocean’ of creating a new coin. Coins have not worked out their long term value proposition. I think there may be long term winners. I am just not interested in playing games with market swings and trading short term. If I were, I think one could make money easier on coins than more established stocks (more dumb money on both sides of trades). I am more a buy and hold and have too much to do with my day job to really learn trading. I think coins are not stable markets. If I was going to learn trading though, I am more likely to learn collectibles (personal preference not economic theory driven).
+1

Looks like we are still in the phase of 100 car companies and it is unclear which ones will be GM, Ford and Chrysler...then again, those car companies don't look quite as good anymore.

We've picked up some free crypto, and perhaps we will toss a few hundred in eventually. FOMO and regret aren't as bad when you are effectively financially independent due to stocks and real estate already and pretty close to having "enough" so it would just be to play around with crypto and not having any ideas of gaining wealth. Similar to owning silver or gold in my mind, I'm not going to pay for anything with metals and I don't have a stock pile, but why not have a few hundred dollars worth with no real reason or purpose (I get to say, yeah we own some of that too). Silly and irrational, but that is about as far as it goes for me with precious metals and crypto until the majority of transactions require crypto.
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by Prahasaurus »

nisiprius wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 7:56 am
Prahasaurus wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 1:12 am
Wiggums wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 7:35 pm One tweet today by Elon Musk and Bitcoin dropped 15.5%. Cryptocurrency is too unstable to be used like the dollar at this stage.
How much did USDC fall against the dollar?
Tesla won't accept USDC as payment for buying a Tesla. Why do you think that is?
USDC is an ERC-20 representation of a US dollar. So you can transact with dollars on Ethereum. As Tesla is not yet running their back end systems on Ethereum, why would they need to use USDC?
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ruralavalon
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by ruralavalon »

WyomingFIRE wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 8:55 pm As an old guy, I do believe the future belongs to the young. Brain cells atrophy. The pace of technological innovation is unrelenting. I can’t fathom what the world will be like in 2050, 2100, 2300.

I’m fascinated by the limits of the Homo sapien brain. It does a poor job of processing concepts such as Deep Time, or Geologic Time. And we aren’t even talking about those time dimensions here; instead, we are talking about tomorrow. Still, the human brain does a poor job of processing the future. There is likely a PhD thesis in there somewhere in neuroscience and anthropology.

So do I think folks will be using paper currency in 2100? No.

Do I think, for those who are really young and smart and can see that future, crypto is rationale? Yes. It is no different than the early investors in the Ford Motor Company, who were viewed as crazy by those still going to horse auctions.

I applaud the young. The future belongs to them. And the future is unimaginable (Homo Sapiens on Mars, AI everywhere, etc.). Advancements in currency are in there somewhere. And that is cool.
The future does indeed belong to the young. But are the young in general really any better at imagining what the future holds? I think not.

Are futurists any good at prediction? Do most new inventions fail?

Can cryptocurrency be used to buy food, clothing, shelter, fuel, or medical care without first being converted back into a fiat currency?

"So do I think folks will be using paper currency in 2100? No." Of course we are already using credit cards, debit cards, and written checks drawn on bank accounts or money market funds rather than paper currency for many tranasactions. I hardly ever use paper currency or coins anymore
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by tomsense76 »

ruralavalon wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 9:57 am
WyomingFIRE wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 8:55 pm As an old guy, I do believe the future belongs to the young. Brain cells atrophy. The pace of technological innovation is unrelenting. I can’t fathom what the world will be like in 2050, 2100, 2300.

I’m fascinated by the limits of the Homo sapien brain. It does a poor job of processing concepts such as Deep Time, or Geologic Time. And we aren’t even talking about those time dimensions here; instead, we are talking about tomorrow. Still, the human brain does a poor job of processing the future. There is likely a PhD thesis in there somewhere in neuroscience and anthropology.

So do I think folks will be using paper currency in 2100? No.

Do I think, for those who are really young and smart and can see that future, crypto is rationale? Yes. It is no different than the early investors in the Ford Motor Company, who were viewed as crazy by those still going to horse auctions.

I applaud the young. The future belongs to them. And the future is unimaginable (Homo Sapiens on Mars, AI everywhere, etc.). Advancements in currency are in there somewhere. And that is cool.
The future does indeed belong to the young. But are the young in general really any better at imagining what the future holds? I think not.

Are futurists any good at prediction? Do most new inventions fail?

Can cryptocurrency be used to buy food, clothing, shelter, fuel, or medical care without first being converted back into a fiat currency?

"So do I think folks will be using paper currency in 2100? No." Of course we are already using credit cards, debit cards, and written checks drawn on bank accounts or money market funds rather than paper currency for many tranasactions. I hardly ever use paper currency or coins anymore
Well and even if you can predict what the future holds being able to predict when is just as (if not more) important. Take the Apple Newton for example. It was pretty ahead of its time. So much so that it wound up being a bust. Palm that later came out with a fairly similar creation did quite a bit better. Still Palm wound up being overtaken by smartphones. While the general idea/belief/prediction of having a hand held computer was right, it took a fair bit of iteration and some notable misses before landing on something that saw widespread adoption beyond a small group of enthusiasts.

Wouldn't be surprised if the story of cryptocurrency is fairly similar. IOW it may take some time to develop into a form that sees widespread adoption. Certainly it seems closer today than it was a decade ago.
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by Zeno »

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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by DesertGator »

TheLaughingCow wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 2:55 am For those who own no crypto. Under what conditions would you consider exchanging some USD for crypto?
Minutes before using it for a transaction for which crypto is either required, or provides a desired non-financial benefit, such as anonymity or safety (less trustworthy seller who I'd rather not provide credit card or bank info to).
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by SlowMovingInvestor »

WyomingFIRE wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 8:31 pm
I’m betting the AI department at Google isn’t hiring folks in their 50’s and 60’s. Folks in their 40’s are probably also passé. T
Incorrect. Definitely hiring people in their 40s and 50s. Someone I know (late 50s) was hired recently in a senior position in one of their most AI intensive groups and I know of others too.
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by decapod10 »

tomsense76 wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 1:05 am
watchnerd wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 5:18 pm
tomsense76 wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 5:09 pm Probably when crypto is able to hold an ETF. I could see some value in holding something like VTI outside a brokerage (just as some people hang onto paper I Bonds in a safe at home for example). To me this is the interesting thing about crypto; the ability to own assets in a decentralized fashion. I get the sense we are probably close to that point (and idk maybe some of the crypto enthusiast on this thread could make that happen), but am not engaged enough in the space to know exactly how close that might be
There has been discussion about using NFTs to create bonds.
Interesting. Have seen the threads on staking, but not this.

Do you happen to have a link? Tried searching "NFT bond", but didn't find much.
https://www.coindesk.com/european-inves ... g-ethereum

It was the European Investment bank issuing bonds on Ethereum (denominated in Euro). Note that I havent really seen what they mean precisely by "issuing bonds on Ethereum", like can I sell the bonds to someone else with a simple Ethereum transaction?. Unfortunately haven't been able to get more details yet .
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by Mr. Potter »

When would you buy cryptocurrency?

1. When the US Government prints money at an unsustainable rate making it worthless.
2. When you feel the stock market is rigged to help the well connected and super wealthy.
3. When the Government proposes huge increases in cap gains.

I have 2 millennial's and this is how many in that generation feel.
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by Oregano »

I will buy cryptocurrency when it solves an actual problem that I have that can't be done in an easier manner. I have not yet come close to having such a problem, but I suppose if I ever need to flee the U.S., it will be near the top of the list. Other than that, what is actually used for other than speculation?
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by keystone »

I would consider buying cryptocurrency when I have confidence in the stability of prices and determine that there is an actual need/benefit to holding it.
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by DetroitRick »

When? As a transactional currency, as soon as it is more widely accepted and more stable in value. Especially for smaller transactions, where I can really see advantages (things like music purchases directly from artists seems to have special potential here in my mind, etc.). And I'd be more enthused if I could load my wallet at a nearby bitcoin atm (not in my locale yet).

As an investment, probably never - unless I had extreme reason to fear relative stability of US dollar (so hopefully never...), among other potential reasons. I can certainly see it's use in certain countries. But I also generally have been reluctant to invest in foreign currency either, and limit my participation in commodities and gold to minor positions too, so this seems consistent to keep this out of my investment strategy.

For speculation, I'm willing now, but not all that motivated. I haven't decided actually. But my biggest point of resistance now is the feeling that value is still extremely manipulated - directly and indirectly. Of course, that happens in equity markets too, but I feel more comfortable spotting it there.
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by ApeAttack »

JoeRetire wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 5:08 am
TheLaughingCow wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 2:55 am For those who own no crypto. Under what conditions would you consider exchanging some USD for crypto?
Right after I cash in a winning lottery ticket.

(hint: I don't buy lottery tickets)
Under what condition would you buy lottery tickets? :dollar
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by Mel Lindauer »

Since you didn't want to hear "never" as a response, I'll simply say that I'll consider crypto when it's confirmed that the proverbial cow actually jumped over the moon and there are multiple reliable independent videos showing that it really happened. 'til then, I'll pass and hope none of my friends or relatives get caught up in the mania and end up getting burned when they turn out to be left holding an empty bag.
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by JoeRetire »

ApeAttack wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 11:36 am
JoeRetire wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 5:08 am
TheLaughingCow wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 2:55 am For those who own no crypto. Under what conditions would you consider exchanging some USD for crypto?
Right after I cash in a winning lottery ticket.

(hint: I don't buy lottery tickets)
Under what condition would you buy lottery tickets? :dollar
When Megabucks first came out in 1982, I bought a single lottery ticket.
I didn't win.
I have never purchased another.

I view it as a tax on the mathematically challenged.
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by z3r0c00l »

When my paycheck, purchases, and taxes are paid in crypto, I will start using it.
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by New Providence »

I bought a few hundred shares of COIN. That's if for me for a while.
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by Wannaretireearly »

When ETH falls back to $1k. All in. Wake me up when that occurs...

More realistically, when i can buy via Vanguard/brokerage account thru ETF/fund. Hate opening new accounts. If I had to open a new account, it may be a toss up between coinbase and Treasury direct 😉
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by watchnerd »

Wannaretireearly wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 5:44 pm When ETH falls back to $1k. All in. Wake me up when that occurs...

More realistically, when i can buy via Vanguard/brokerage account thru ETF/fund. Hate opening new accounts. If I had to open a new account, it may be a toss up between coinbase and Treasury direct 😉
GBTC and ETHE can be purchased through your Vanguard brokerage account.

I own these.

Grayscale has a bunch of other crypto asset trusts, too:

https://grayscale.com/products/#
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by fortunefavored »

Mel Lindauer wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 2:55 pm Since you didn't want to hear "never" as a response, I'll simply say that I'll consider crypto when it's confirmed that the proverbial cow actually jumped over the moon and there are multiple reliable independent videos showing that it really happened. 'til then, I'll pass and hope none of my friends or relatives get caught up in the mania and end up getting burned when they turn out to be left holding an empty bag.
I think its important for people to reply "never" - because it is a terrible, terrible idea. If people just want to continue the pump, bogleheads should not be the place.

I don't know why the crypto thing bugs me so much, perhaps living through the dotcom mania where people would literally threaten fisticuffs (face to face, in person) if you did not buy into the latest dotcom left me traumatized. Crypto pumpers strike me the same - they get really angry that you "just don't understand!" - no really, I understand completely. I've even written some code related to blockchain and contributed to open source projects.
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by ianferrel »

I'm gonna buy some when I get my MtGox bankruptcy payout.
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by Mel Lindauer »

fortunefavored wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 6:55 pm
Mel Lindauer wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 2:55 pm Since you didn't want to hear "never" as a response, I'll simply say that I'll consider crypto when it's confirmed that the proverbial cow actually jumped over the moon and there are multiple reliable independent videos showing that it really happened. 'til then, I'll pass and hope none of my friends or relatives get caught up in the mania and end up getting burned when they turn out to be left holding an empty bag.
I think its important for people to reply "never" - because it is a terrible, terrible idea. If people just want to continue the pump, bogleheads should not be the place.

I don't know why the crypto thing bugs me so much, perhaps living through the dotcom mania where people would literally threaten fisticuffs (face to face, in person) if you did not buy into the latest dotcom left me traumatized. Crypto pumpers strike me the same - they get really angry that you "just don't understand!" - no really, I understand completely. I've even written some code related to blockchain and contributed to open source projects.
Yes, I've said that this reminds me of the mindset of those who dug in and said we "old fogies" just didn't understand when the dotcom crowd was telling everyone that they had to get on board, buying companies with little or no income, no earnings and absolutely nothing but a promise of getting rich, or be left behind. We all know how that ended, and I feel that this could be de ja vu all over again. Perhaps the crypto enthusiasts are simply too young to remember the tech wreck.
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by Wannaretireearly »

watchnerd wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 6:44 pm
Wannaretireearly wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 5:44 pm When ETH falls back to $1k. All in. Wake me up when that occurs...

More realistically, when i can buy via Vanguard/brokerage account thru ETF/fund. Hate opening new accounts. If I had to open a new account, it may be a toss up between coinbase and Treasury direct 😉
GBTC and ETHE can be purchased through your Vanguard brokerage account.

I own these.

Grayscale has a bunch of other crypto asset trusts, too:

https://grayscale.com/products/#
Thanks watchnerd!
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Mel Lindauer wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 7:05 pm
fortunefavored wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 6:55 pm
Mel Lindauer wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 2:55 pm Since you didn't want to hear "never" as a response, I'll simply say that I'll consider crypto when it's confirmed that the proverbial cow actually jumped over the moon and there are multiple reliable independent videos showing that it really happened. 'til then, I'll pass and hope none of my friends or relatives get caught up in the mania and end up getting burned when they turn out to be left holding an empty bag.
I think its important for people to reply "never" - because it is a terrible, terrible idea. If people just want to continue the pump, bogleheads should not be the place.

I don't know why the crypto thing bugs me so much, perhaps living through the dotcom mania where people would literally threaten fisticuffs (face to face, in person) if you did not buy into the latest dotcom left me traumatized. Crypto pumpers strike me the same - they get really angry that you "just don't understand!" - no really, I understand completely. I've even written some code related to blockchain and contributed to open source projects.
Yes, I've said that this reminds me of the mindset of those who dug in and said we "old fogies" just didn't understand when the dotcom crowd was telling everyone that they had to get on board, buying companies with little or no income, no earnings and absolutely nothing but a promise of getting rich, or be left behind. We all know how that ended, and I feel that this could be de ja vu all over again. Perhaps the crypto enthusiasts are simply too young to remember the tech wreck.
I'm 36 and work with a few guys around my age who are very into it. I'm the Controller so they often bounce ideas off of me and get a little miffed when I tell them that nobody knows where markets will go in the short term and that my strategy is simply to max out retirement accounts, keep taxable income low, buy low cost index funds, both U.S. and foreign, and hold them for decades. The look at me like I'm crazy. Shouldn't a CPA, a financial controller, know better than to accept such crappy returns? I use the company 401(k)? Have I seen how bad the returns are?

Meanwhile, I'm worth 7 figures and they're talking about how their $500 in Dogecoin went up to $1,000 and how Gamestop is going to $10,000 per share.
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by Mel Lindauer »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 7:33 pm
Mel Lindauer wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 7:05 pm
fortunefavored wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 6:55 pm
Mel Lindauer wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 2:55 pm Since you didn't want to hear "never" as a response, I'll simply say that I'll consider crypto when it's confirmed that the proverbial cow actually jumped over the moon and there are multiple reliable independent videos showing that it really happened. 'til then, I'll pass and hope none of my friends or relatives get caught up in the mania and end up getting burned when they turn out to be left holding an empty bag.
I think its important for people to reply "never" - because it is a terrible, terrible idea. If people just want to continue the pump, bogleheads should not be the place.

I don't know why the crypto thing bugs me so much, perhaps living through the dotcom mania where people would literally threaten fisticuffs (face to face, in person) if you did not buy into the latest dotcom left me traumatized. Crypto pumpers strike me the same - they get really angry that you "just don't understand!" - no really, I understand completely. I've even written some code related to blockchain and contributed to open source projects.
Yes, I've said that this reminds me of the mindset of those who dug in and said we "old fogies" just didn't understand when the dotcom crowd was telling everyone that they had to get on board, buying companies with little or no income, no earnings and absolutely nothing but a promise of getting rich, or be left behind. We all know how that ended, and I feel that this could be de ja vu all over again. Perhaps the crypto enthusiasts are simply too young to remember the tech wreck.
I'm 36 and work with a few guys around my age who are very into it. I'm the Controller so they often bounce ideas off of me and get a little miffed when I tell them that nobody knows where markets will go in the short term and that my strategy is simply to max out retirement accounts, keep taxable income low, buy low cost index funds, both U.S. and foreign, and hold them for decades. The look at me like I'm crazy. Shouldn't a CPA, a financial controller, know better than to accept such crappy returns? I use the company 401(k)? Have I seen how bad the returns are?

Meanwhile, I'm worth 7 figures and they're talking about how their $500 in Dogecoin went up to $1,000 and how Gamestop is going to $10,000 per share.
Bravo! You're proof that there is, indeed, hope for the younger generation. I feel pretty confident that there are many more like you right here on this forum.
Best Regards - Mel | | Semper Fi
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Mel Lindauer wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 7:39 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 7:33 pm
Mel Lindauer wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 7:05 pm
fortunefavored wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 6:55 pm
Mel Lindauer wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 2:55 pm Since you didn't want to hear "never" as a response, I'll simply say that I'll consider crypto when it's confirmed that the proverbial cow actually jumped over the moon and there are multiple reliable independent videos showing that it really happened. 'til then, I'll pass and hope none of my friends or relatives get caught up in the mania and end up getting burned when they turn out to be left holding an empty bag.
I think its important for people to reply "never" - because it is a terrible, terrible idea. If people just want to continue the pump, bogleheads should not be the place.

I don't know why the crypto thing bugs me so much, perhaps living through the dotcom mania where people would literally threaten fisticuffs (face to face, in person) if you did not buy into the latest dotcom left me traumatized. Crypto pumpers strike me the same - they get really angry that you "just don't understand!" - no really, I understand completely. I've even written some code related to blockchain and contributed to open source projects.
Yes, I've said that this reminds me of the mindset of those who dug in and said we "old fogies" just didn't understand when the dotcom crowd was telling everyone that they had to get on board, buying companies with little or no income, no earnings and absolutely nothing but a promise of getting rich, or be left behind. We all know how that ended, and I feel that this could be de ja vu all over again. Perhaps the crypto enthusiasts are simply too young to remember the tech wreck.
I'm 36 and work with a few guys around my age who are very into it. I'm the Controller so they often bounce ideas off of me and get a little miffed when I tell them that nobody knows where markets will go in the short term and that my strategy is simply to max out retirement accounts, keep taxable income low, buy low cost index funds, both U.S. and foreign, and hold them for decades. The look at me like I'm crazy. Shouldn't a CPA, a financial controller, know better than to accept such crappy returns? I use the company 401(k)? Have I seen how bad the returns are?

Meanwhile, I'm worth 7 figures and they're talking about how their $500 in Dogecoin went up to $1,000 and how Gamestop is going to $10,000 per share.
Bravo! You're proof that there is, indeed, hope for the younger generation. I feel pretty confident that there are many more like you right here on this forum.
There are. I think by nature, Bogleheads are a conservative bunch, and probably aren't yelling about their successes from the rooftops. Nobody except my wife and people on this forum know that we're worth what we are. One of the work guys said in jest, "we're giving TDG crap but he's probably got six figures in his 401(k)." I'm unassuming and there is literally nothing about me that would suggest I am anything but average. We drive Hondas and live in a very nice but modest house in a nice quiet suburb. I suspect there are more of me out there.
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by nisiprius »

New Providence wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 5:31 pm I bought a few hundred shares of COIN. That's if for me for a while.
At the risk of pointing out the obvious, COIN is not an investment in cryptocurrency. It is an investment in the stock of Coinbase Inc., which according to Bloomberg is a company which "provides data and transaction processing services" and is in the GICS financial sector, financial services industry, institutional financial services sub-industry.

Coinbase inc. isn't in the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund as of 3/31/2021, but I expect within a few months I will own some myself.

(The Winklevoss twins said for years that they were just a few months away from getting final regulatory approval for an bitcoin ETF that was going to trade under the ticker symbol COIN, but that fell through, and apparently the ticker symbol was re-used).
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by Gadget »

typical.investor wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 7:53 am I will buy cryptos when there is a system in place to more effectively prevent them from being used in cyber/ransomeware attacks such as the one that shut off fuel out East. Call it socially responsible investing. If tracking payment were so easy, cryptos wouldn’t be the desired payment method.

I was so close to dropping $100 k in Ethereum but on second review ...
Bitcoin and ETH are not anonymous to a government that can get a warrant from an ISP or exchange with KYC. So while their transactions can't be stopped, they can be tracked. Just not by the average Joe. But if you have one crypto wallet with its identity tagged, it can be traced to every wallet it makes a transaction with across the blockchain. Nobody is mining or staking crypto effectively with free McDonalds wifi, so I'm pretty sure it can all be tracked with the right resources.

In fact, the Darkside hackers on the pipeline seemed to have figured this out when the government came to their doorsteps, arrested them, and seized all their crypto...

Would they have been better off asking for a bag of cash in an anonymous drop box? I don't know. But I find some of this stuff fascinating, so I've been tracking it on Krebs and other places.

Some of the most interesting stories are the former FBI agent head that shut down the silk road people and seized all the crypto and assets. In that case, they actually caught 2 dirty feds. And the person being interviewed credited the blockchain for catching the dirty feds. Said they would have never caught them if they couldn't trace all the transactions on the blockchain for all history.

Are there ways around all this? Some, but there are probably also ways to circumvent them. I won't get into those. But the IRS has already contracted with companies like Palantir to catch crypto tax cheats for the IRS. For all we know, they can actively trace all crypto assets from terrorist groups across the globe. After all, the blockchain data is 100% transparent and open. It's gotta be easier than tracking foreign currency in banks from 3rd world countries.
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Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

Post by watchnerd »

Gadget wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 8:43 pm Are there ways around all this? Some, but there are probably also ways to circumvent them. I won't get into those. But the IRS has already contracted with companies like Palantir to catch crypto tax cheats for the IRS. For all we know, they can actively trace all crypto assets from terrorist groups across the globe. After all, the blockchain data is 100% transparent and open. It's gotta be easier than tracking foreign currency in banks from 3rd world countries.
I've wondered if Monero is as stealthy as the proponents think it is.

I've also thought, if I was the FBI/NSA/DEA, I would create Monero as a honey pot.
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