J.P. Morgan 2021 Guide to Retirement

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InvestorHowie
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J.P. Morgan 2021 Guide to Retirement

Post by InvestorHowie »

Perhaps not every Bogleheads' cup of tea but I enjoy reviewing the annual J.P. Morgan Guide to Retirement. They've just updated this for 2021 in the past day or two. When I first came across this annual report several years ago it served as a good primer for an aspiring Boglehead to build upon. I still learn a little something each year from this well-organized document. Not to mention charts galore!

https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-man ... etirement/
Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy. --John C. Bogle
Oreamnos
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Re: J.P. Morgan 2021 Guide to Retirement

Post by Oreamnos »

Thanks for sharing. Lots of useful content, and some nice graphical depictions of things (which I can use to help explain things to others).
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Re: J.P. Morgan 2021 Guide to Retirement

Post by Wannaretireearly »

Oreamnos wrote: Thu Mar 04, 2021 11:35 pm Thanks for sharing. Lots of useful content, and some nice graphical depictions of things (which I can use to help explain things to others).
+1. Thanks OP!
Some great content. E.g. median spending levels at diff ages, plus random stuff like if you contribute to HSA's don't sign up for Medicare if working at age 65! (Just wow, to our complex US system, lol).
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Re: J.P. Morgan 2021 Guide to Retirement

Post by galawdawg »

Thanks OP. Here's the link to directly download the PDF of the Guide to Retirement: https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm ... ent-us.pdf
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Re: J.P. Morgan 2021 Guide to Retirement

Post by happysteward »

Nice, page 32 (Medicare premiums) and page 49 (tax bracket summary and their impact) are very well done summaries!

Bit surprised JP Morgan puts this out for free...seems like this would be the type of thing I would need to be sitting across the desk of a high AUM advisor to see :happy

Makes me wonder what paying customers get to see!
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Wiggums
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Re: J.P. Morgan 2021 Guide to Retirement

Post by Wiggums »

Thanks for posting this. Very informative. A lot of good info!!!
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sapphire96
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Re: J.P. Morgan 2021 Guide to Retirement

Post by sapphire96 »

Very detailed report. My only critique of it are it’s comments on the 4% withdrawal rule. They used 40% Stock/60% Bonds to show the rule as no longer applicable, when the Trinity’s study had a 95% success rate using 60/40.
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Post by Snowjob »

Wow brilliant
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Wiggums
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Re: J.P. Morgan 2021 Guide to Retirement

Post by Wiggums »

sapphire96 wrote: Fri Mar 05, 2021 6:46 am Very detailed report. My only critique of it are it’s comments on the 4% withdrawal rule. They used 40% Stock/60% Bonds to show the rule as no longer applicable, when the Trinity’s study had a 95% success rate using 60/40.
Page 24: I saw the 4% line hit the 30 year mark, and didn’t give it much thought. On second look, the comment to the right of the chart recommends dynamic.

good catch.
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Re: J.P. Morgan 2021 Guide to Retirement

Post by ruralavalon »

That's a plain and concise guide, very nice. Thanks for the link.
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Re: J.P. Morgan 2021 Guide to Retirement

Post by grok87 »

thanks for posting. i was interested in the stat that for a couple both aged 65, the probability of at least one reaching age 95 is 20%.

that seems like a reasonable target to plan for.

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Post by Average Investor »

Excellent.
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patrick013
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Post by patrick013 »

Mandatory download. A relevant chart for every dedicated
saver.
age in bonds, buy-and-hold, 10 year business cycle
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Re: J.P. Morgan 2021 Guide to Retirement

Post by superbobbyg »

excellent. thank you.
grok87
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Re: J.P. Morgan 2021 Guide to Retirement

Post by grok87 »

this article may be relevant.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/retireme ... 59031.html
wrote: “Retirement is something people have worked for for their whole life and they prepare for it, but often leading into retirement there's this sudden fear and uncertainty about preparation,” Rob Williams, vice president of financial planning at Charles Schwab, told Yahoo Money. Retirees wonder if they have enough money and what’s a reasonable amount to live on, he said.

For instance, nearly 6 in 10 of respondents wanted to spend down only a small portion of assets, spend none at all, or grow their assets.

“They just want to have that nest egg in case anything happens,” as Lucas put it.
cheers,
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InvestorHowie
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Re: J.P. Morgan 2021 Guide to Retirement

Post by InvestorHowie »

Wiggums wrote: Fri Mar 05, 2021 7:06 am
sapphire96 wrote: Fri Mar 05, 2021 6:46 am Very detailed report. My only critique of it are it’s comments on the 4% withdrawal rule. They used 40% Stock/60% Bonds to show the rule as no longer applicable, when the Trinity’s study had a 95% success rate using 60/40.
Page 24: I saw the 4% line hit the 30 year mark, and didn’t give it much thought. On second look, the comment to the right of the chart recommends dynamic.

good catch.
I missed that too - agreed on the good catch there!
Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy. --John C. Bogle
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Re: J.P. Morgan 2021 Guide to Retirement

Post by chassis »

@InvestorHowie, thanks very good information in the slides.
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Post by Peaceful »

Excellent. Thanks for posting this.
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Re: J.P. Morgan 2021 Guide to Retirement

Post by hi_there »

Wow, there is really a wealth of information in these slides. I found the spending surveys for various ages to be most informative. I wish there was a way to Like posts like this.
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Re: J.P. Morgan 2021 Guide to Retirement

Post by Emiliania »

This is my Bogleheads gem of the week!

I found the healthcare numbers very helpful.
They give:
Average healthcare costs pre-Medicare as a function of age.
Average healthcare costs on Medicare at age 65 and age 95.
(with references.)
These numbers show very clearly how "Healthcare inflation" is not just external inflation, but a major component is caused by the aging of the individual. And it is a lot larger than CPI inflation!
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Re: J.P. Morgan 2021 Guide to Retirement

Post by SaveMor »

Very nice resource -- lots of clean graphs -- here are a few things that stood out for me:
  • page 3 -> the retirement equation
    • Where you have total control: saving vs. Spending / asset allocation and location
    • Where you have some control: employment earnings and duration / longevity
    • Out of your control: market returns / tax, savings, and benefits policies
  • page 5 -> why people work in retirement
  • page 6 -> reasons cited for retiring earlier than planned
  • page 20 -> benefits of Roth by age and income
  • page 22 -> household spending vs. age
  • page 28 -> health care costs for retirees before 65
Doctor Rhythm
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Post by Doctor Rhythm »

So much useful information in one place, but there wasn’t a chart showing the harmful effect of fees and expenses on your portfolio’s growth. Funny that.
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Re: J.P. Morgan 2021 Guide to Retirement

Post by happysteward »

Doctor Rhythm wrote: Fri Mar 05, 2021 7:21 pm So much useful information in one place, but there wasn’t a chart showing the harmful effect of fees and expenses on your portfolio’s growth. Funny that.
Excellent point, how did I miss that :oops:
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Post by wrongfunds »

I do not understand this slide; which shows almost constant healthcare spending. It also shows constant housing expense much higher than shrinking mortgage expense, like almost three times higher! The colors are difficult to decipher but I am presuming they are listed from top to bottom in legend

Suffices to say, I am NOT impressed with the accuracy of the fancy slides.

Image
Doctor Rhythm
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Post by Doctor Rhythm »

wrongfunds wrote: Fri Mar 05, 2021 8:09 pm I do not understand this slide; which shows almost constant healthcare spending. It also shows constant housing expense much higher than shrinking mortgage expense, like almost three times higher! The colors are difficult to decipher but I am presuming they are listed from top to bottom in legend

Suffices to say, I am NOT impressed with the accuracy of the fancy slides.

Image
The fine print sheds some light on the numbers. The stats are for household spending, but average household size decreases as you age. Thus, per capita healthcare expense goes up even if the line looks flat.
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Post by camillus »

Another interesting perspective is that JP Morgan is decidedly pro Roth. They have a chart that seems to recommend a worker always max out Roth space before "leveling up" to deferred space.

Curiously, the pamphlet also mentions that people tend to retire a few years before they expect, making deferred savings (given a smaller nestegg) somewhat preferable.

A cynical take is that they'd rather not say, "If your workplace plan is good, invest with them and not us."
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Post by abuss368 »

Interesting. Thank you for sharing.

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Re: J.P. Morgan 2021 Guide to Retirement

Post by CyclingDuo »

InvestorHowie wrote: Thu Mar 04, 2021 9:14 pm Perhaps not every Bogleheads' cup of tea but I enjoy reviewing the annual J.P. Morgan Guide to Retirement. They've just updated this for 2021 in the past day or two. When I first came across this annual report several years ago it served as a good primer for an aspiring Boglehead to build upon. I still learn a little something each year from this well-organized document. Not to mention charts galore!

https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-man ... etirement/
Excellent stuff, as usual!

I really like the reference section (the pages after page 52). Unfortunately, those pages are not part of the download.

CyclingDuo
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Re: J.P. Morgan 2021 Guide to Retirement

Post by InvestorHowie »

CyclingDuo wrote: Sat Mar 06, 2021 7:15 am I really like the reference section (the pages after page 52). Unfortunately, those pages are not part of the download.
Yes, it's interesting that they didn't include the 'On the Bench' section in the download. I'll admit that I used my browser zoom and printed a few screenshots to PDF to print and mark up with my own notes.

Definitely agree that the additional reference contains a LOT of good additional info.
Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy. --John C. Bogle
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Re: J.P. Morgan 2021 Guide to Retirement

Post by CyclingDuo »

InvestorHowie wrote: Sat Mar 06, 2021 8:53 amYes, it's interesting that they didn't include the 'On the Bench' section in the download. I'll admit that I used my browser zoom and printed a few screenshots to PDF to print and mark up with my own notes.

Definitely agree that the additional reference contains a LOT of good additional info.
I especially like "the missing the 10 best days in the stock market page(s)" about what happens to investors that miss out on the "best days" of the stock market performance. The table for the past 20 years had thee of the best ten days being in March and April of 2020. March 24th after the bottom on March 23rd 2020, and the follow through day on April 6th were both real zingers. Anyway, having that page and data is nice to show those who tinker with timing all the time and post on these boards - along with the usual comments they love to include about "look what happened to Japan's Nikkei from 1989 to present"...

I also like the page entitled "options to consider when retiring or changing jobs" as I have an old 403b still sitting in my former employer's plan that I need to rollover (either to my current employer's 401k plan, or into my IRA) that I've been sitting on for three years. I noticed I am now being charged quarterly fees to keep it where it is, so it is high time to get moving on that and stop those fees. The page was a good reminder in table format of the potential benefits and considerations.

It's a great guide and well worth the read.

CyclingDuo
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Re: J.P. Morgan 2021 Guide to Retirement

Post by JAZZISCOOL »

Thank you for posting this! JPM produces good work. :thumbsup

I thought the "Changes in Lifestyle" on p. 7 was interesting. The amount of sleep shows little change over the years (a bit surprising) but watching TV and volunteering goes up. :happy
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Post by InvestorHowie »

CyclingDuo wrote: Sat Mar 06, 2021 9:49 am I especially like "the missing the 10 best days in the stock market page(s)"...

I also like the page entitled "options to consider when retiring or changing jobs"...
My favorites as well. The graphical representation of 'Effects of withdrawal rates and portfolio allocations' is interesting as well though I've seen similar charts posted here with less AA permutations.

I, like many, am a visual learner so seeing some of these fundamental ideas represented simply in graphs and charts helps bridge the gap between 'knowing it' and 'getting it' for me.

I do feel like this is a 'Cliff's Notes' version of a personal financial planning course and if you mentally fill in the missing Boglehead slide encouraging the use of low-cost index and total market funds you've got a pretty solid foundation for continued learning.
Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy. --John C. Bogle
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Post by PowderDay9 »

I was surprised to see that a 50 year old averages more than 8 hours of sleep per night. I would have guessed the average would have been about 7.
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Re: J.P. Morgan 2021 Guide to Retirement

Post by Grogs »

happysteward wrote: Fri Mar 05, 2021 5:41 am Nice, page 32 (Medicare premiums) and page 49 (tax bracket summary and their impact) are very well done summaries!

Bit surprised JP Morgan puts this out for free...seems like this would be the type of thing I would need to be sitting across the desk of a high AUM advisor to see :happy

Makes me wonder what paying customers get to see!
Probably the paying customers get the same thing, but printed on heavyweight paper with lots of gold leaf to make them feel special. I've received a few packages from advisors that target people with large portfolios (don't know why) and that seems to be the standard MO.

I second that the tax rate and contribution limit tables on slides 49-51 are excellent. It seems like it's always hard to find all of that information together in a concise format like that.
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Post by beernutz »

I enjoyed the Retirement Guide but I'm really surprised that no one here has commented on this slide where JPMorgan compared what looks like a textbook Boglehead 3 fund portfolio to a hodgepodge of "diversified" funds which achieved a slightly higher return with slightly less volatility to promote portfolio diversity.
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Post by rocket354 »

I noticed spending habits seemed to peak at about 45 and then decline steadily after age 50. However, most other metrics seem to imply that one's 50's are often one's peak earning years. I also noted a lot of slides, particularly the HSA slides, seemed to focus on savings from ages 50-65.

My conclusion is that a lot of people spend-spend-spend up to more or less their income, and only when they hit 50 do they realize that they should probably start "thinking about retirement." Spending goes down as savings go up so they can "get there" in time. This interpretation jibes with my anecdotal evidence of friends and family around the time they hit 50.

There is, of course, uncertainty in those spending numbers in the sense that as people get older, more and more get taken out of the workforce for one reason or another. Health issues leaving someone unable to work, layoffs, etc, certainly would lower one's spending, and I can only imagine the frequency of that increases steadily past age 50.
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Re: J.P. Morgan 2021 Guide to Retirement

Post by iamblessed »

Wiggums wrote: Fri Mar 05, 2021 7:06 am
sapphire96 wrote: Fri Mar 05, 2021 6:46 am Very detailed report. My only critique of it are it’s comments on the 4% withdrawal rule. They used 40% Stock/60% Bonds to show the rule as no longer applicable, when the Trinity’s study had a 95% success rate using 60/40.
Page 24: I saw the 4% line hit the 30 year mark, and didn’t give it much thought. On second look, the comment to the right of the chart recommends dynamic.

good catch.
Great report. Looks like dyamic spending of 5.2% beats the 4% rule. You spend more and still have more at the end. What do you think of that? Help me understand it. It sounds like if the market drops you still take the same amount. For example if you had 100k and the market dropped 25k would you still take $5,200 or would you take $3,900? It is on page 27.
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Re: J.P. Morgan 2021 Guide to Retirement

Post by AlohaJoe »

rocket354 wrote: Sun Jun 13, 2021 11:49 am My conclusion is that a lot of people spend-spend-spend up to more or less their income, and only when they hit 50 do they realize that they should probably start "thinking about retirement." Spending goes down as savings go up so they can "get there" in time.
My conclusion is that people have families and once they hit 50 their children have moved out of the house and graduated university. Back in 2016 Michael Kitces wrote about the empty nest transition and how it probably crucial to retirement savings.

Image

https://www.kitces.com/blog/empty-nest- ... etirement/
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Re: J.P. Morgan 2021 Guide to Retirement

Post by rocket354 »

AlohaJoe wrote: Sun Jun 13, 2021 12:41 pm
rocket354 wrote: Sun Jun 13, 2021 11:49 am My conclusion is that a lot of people spend-spend-spend up to more or less their income, and only when they hit 50 do they realize that they should probably start "thinking about retirement." Spending goes down as savings go up so they can "get there" in time.
My conclusion is that people have families and once they hit 50 their children have moved out of the house and graduated university. Back in 2016 Michael Kitces wrote about the empty nest transition and how it probably crucial to retirement savings.

Image

https://www.kitces.com/blog/empty-nest- ... etirement/
Good point. On the other hand, having kids is just another form of "spending," and the end result is the same. Just gives a little more granularity to that spending.
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Re: J.P. Morgan 2021 Guide to Retirement

Post by Tattarrattat »

Really a high quality document with a lot of well presented information. For a free handout, it's got more and better info than a number of retirement books I've read (and paid for).
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Re: J.P. Morgan 2021 Guide to Retirement

Post by ChaseD20 »

Thank you for posting this.
Slide 31 about rising health care costs is eye opener :shock: for me.

Thanks again.


PG
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Re: J.P. Morgan 2021 Guide to Retirement

Post by iamblessed »

iamblessed wrote: Sun Jun 13, 2021 12:12 pm
Wiggums wrote: Fri Mar 05, 2021 7:06 am
sapphire96 wrote: Fri Mar 05, 2021 6:46 am Very detailed report. My only critique of it are it’s comments on the 4% withdrawal rule. They used 40% Stock/60% Bonds to show the rule as no longer applicable, when the Trinity’s study had a 95% success rate using 60/40.
Page 24: I saw the 4% line hit the 30 year mark, and didn’t give it much thought. On second look, the comment to the right of the chart recommends dynamic.

good catch.
Great report. Looks like dyamic spending of 5.2% beats the 4% rule. You spend more and still have more at the end. What do you think of that? Help me understand it. It sounds like if the market drops you still take the same amount. For example if you had 100k and the market dropped 25k would you still take $5,200 or would you take $3,900? It is on page 27.
Bumping my question.
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Post by mikejuss »

beernutz wrote: Sun Jun 13, 2021 8:38 am I enjoyed the Retirement Guide but I'm really surprised that no one here has commented on this slide where JPMorgan compared what looks like a textbook Boglehead 3 fund portfolio to a hodgepodge of "diversified" funds which achieved a slightly higher return with slightly less volatility to promote portfolio diversity.
Image
That jumped out at me too. I will not be slicing and dicing like the doughnut at right.
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Re: J.P. Morgan 2021 Guide to Retirement

Post by j.click »

I believe this comparison is a bit misleading. If one uses Total US Stock Market index you also include the REIT component and Russell 2000 at market weight. Likewise for Total International Index that incorporates both EAFE and Emerging Markets at market weights. The bond side is also more slice and dice with factor weightings thus I don't think this is strictly an overall apples to apples comparison. A three fund portfolio of Total Stock, Total International and Total Bond in your preferred percentages is still hard to beat and much easier to track.
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