Tesla Stock. Need Help? Update

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AD3
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Tesla Stock. Need Help? Update

Post by AD3 »

Back into 2012 I bought some Tesla stock, after much appreciation of the stock I made north of $150,000 in my retirement portfolio and I'm trying to figure out what to do next. I'm considering the possibility of selling about 20% to 25% of the stock, but I'm not sure on what the next steps will be and where to invest. I'm planning on retiring in five years. I think that I'm overexposed to one stock and should move out of the position. I know the bogleheads method would be to simplify, I wanted to get other peoples point of view on this.

Thank you.
Last edited by AD3 on Fri Jan 15, 2021 1:24 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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mrspock
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Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help?

Post by mrspock »

Congrats on your gains. You are going to get a ton of complex answers, here's my short simple answer: if it's in a tax advantaged account, sell it down to 10-15% of your overall portfolio value, and if this is in the equity portion of your AA, buy VTI or VOO instead. These are broadly diversified Total Market (VTI) and S&P 500 (VOO) index funds run by Vanguard.
The PA Investor
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Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help?

Post by The PA Investor »

That's awesome to hear I'm glad to hear that you made 150k from Tesla stock. Personally I would sell all of the Tesla stock. You're relying on one company way too much. If you look at the history of Tesla stock here

(https://www.google.com/search?q=history ... e&ie=UTF-8)

you can see that it's currently doing well. This does NOT mean it will do well in the future. Take Bitcoin for example. People thought it would do well and was the wave of the future. Granted this has feelings more of a bubble but the principal is the same. A single bitcoin was worth about 18k in February of 2018. Now it's worth about 7.5k.

You're only 5 years away from retiring and can't afford to be taking these kind of risks. I highly suggest following Jack Bogle's guide to the 3 fund portfolio. It consists of 3 funds: the U.S. Total Stock Market, the U.S. total bond market and an index of the international market and that's it. In this fund you have the world in your portfolio and not just one company.

To figure out how much of the three you should have a rough estimate to use is your age. For example let's say you're 60 years old so you may want to consider having 60% bonds in your portfolio and 40% stocks. This is a rough guide but you can alter it anyway you like. If you talk to many investors they focus on low cost index funds. The 3 funds I provided are examples of low cost index funds. Keep your expenses low and you'll do well. I will say parts of your portfolio may under perform but that's NORMAL. Do not panic and try to sell. Simply buy and hold and that's it.

You're nearing retirement and you don't want to be taking unnecessary risk. I would suggest having more bonds in your portfolio to protect you from any downturns in the market.

I hope that helps and please try and sell the Tesla stocks. They're a huge risk for you. Nobody knows when the value of Tesla stocks will decline.
DonIce
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Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help?

Post by DonIce »

The PA Investor wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:02 am That's awesome to hear I'm glad to hear that you made 150k from Tesla stock. Personally I would sell all of the Tesla stock. You're relying on one company way too much. If you look at the history of Tesla stock here

(https://www.google.com/search?q=history ... e&ie=UTF-8)

you can see that it's currently doing well. This does NOT mean it will do well in the future. Take Bitcoin for example. People thought it would do well and was the wave of the future. Granted this has feelings more of a bubble but the principal is the same. A single bitcoin was worth about 18k in February of 2018. Now it's worth about 7.5k.
I agree with the advice to diversify away from a single stock, but comparing Tesla to bitcoin is silly.
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CyclingDuo
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Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help?

Post by CyclingDuo »

AD3 wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 12:53 am Back into 2012 I bought some Tesla stock, after much appreciation of the stock I made north of $150,000 in my retirement portfolio and I'm trying to figure out what to do next. I'm considering the possibility of selling about 20% to 25% of the stock, but I'm not sure on what the next steps will be and where to invest. I'm planning on retiring in five years. I think that I'm overexposed to one stock and should move out of the position. I know the bogleheads method would be to simplify, I wanted to get other peoples point of view on this.

Thank you.
What does your IPS state regarding what percentage of your overall portfolio any individual stock holding can be? Example is that many use the figure of 3% or 5% to avoid being overexposed to one individual stock. Overexposure can happen often to employees of companies who participate in the company's ESPP program and or receive RSU's. Or in the case of an investment that has grown well over the past decade or more (Tesla, Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, Berkshire, etc...), trimming back when an individual position has run a long way and reached a certain percentage of your overall portfolio means it is time to harvest some gains and diversify your risk. The usual recommended advice is to have it written in your IPS and follow your discipline.

If your Tesla stock has grown to be above a certain percentage of your overall portfolio, trim it back by harvesting your gains and put those eggs in other baskets. Obvious choices of where to put those gains would be in Total Stock Market Index and Bond funds. Or pay off your mortgage. Or buy a new Tesla. :beer
"Save like a pessimist, invest like an optimist." - Morgan Housel
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AD3
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Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help?

Post by AD3 »

What does your IPS state regarding what percentage of your overall portfolio any individual stock holding can be? Example is that many use the figure of 3% or 5% to avoid being overexposed to one individual stock. Overexposure can happen often to employees of companies who participate in the company's ESPP program and or receive RSU's. Or in the case of an investment that has grown well over the past decade or more (Tesla, Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, Berkshire, etc...), trimming back when an individual position has run a long way and reached a certain percentage of your overall portfolio means it is time to harvest some gains and diversify your risk. The usual recommended advice is to have it written in your IPS and follow your discipline.

If your Tesla stock has grown to be above a certain percentage of your overall portfolio, trim it back by harvesting your gains and put those eggs in other baskets. Obvious choices of where to put those gains would be in Total Stock Market Index and Bond funds. Or pay off your mortgage. Or buy a new Tesla. :beer
[/quote]

I don't have an IPS, I do participate in my ESPP plan from time to time but the stock price rose to levels that made it difficult to justify buying the stock. With this invest I fall more in the later of having a growth stock out perform and not realizing the gains and moving the money else where. I like the idea of harvesting the gains and allocating the money to other areas of my retirement. The one mistake I made in buying this stock was the fact that I bought the shares in a non taxable account. I'm kicking myself over that mistake, this was pre-bogleheads. :oops: I have close to half of my retirement in bonds, so I'm most likely putting this towards equities.
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AD3
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Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help?

Post by AD3 »

mrspock wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:02 am Congrats on your gains. You are going to get a ton of complex answers, here's my short simple answer: if it's in a tax advantaged account, sell it down to 10-15% of your overall portfolio value, and if this is in the equity portion of your AA, buy VTI or VOO instead. These are broadly diversified Total Market (VTI) and S&P 500 (VOO) index funds run by Vanguard.
Thanks, any reason why you wouldn't suggest selling the overall position over 10-15%?
The PA Investor wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:02 am That's awesome to hear I'm glad to hear that you made 150k from Tesla stock. Personally I would sell all of the Tesla stock. You're relying on one company way too much. If you look at the history of Tesla stock here

(https://www.google.com/search?q=history ... e&ie=UTF-8)

you can see that it's currently doing well. This does NOT mean it will do well in the future. Take Bitcoin for example. People thought it would do well and was the wave of the future. Granted this has feelings more of a bubble but the principal is the same. A single bitcoin was worth about 18k in February of 2018. Now it's worth about 7.5k.

You're only 5 years away from retiring and can't afford to be taking these kind of risks. I highly suggest following Jack Bogle's guide to the 3 fund portfolio. It consists of 3 funds: the U.S. Total Stock Market, the U.S. total bond market and an index of the international market and that's it. In this fund you have the world in your portfolio and not just one company.

To figure out how much of the three you should have a rough estimate to use is your age. For example let's say you're 60 years old so you may want to consider having 60% bonds in your portfolio and 40% stocks. This is a rough guide but you can alter it anyway you like. If you talk to many investors they focus on low cost index funds. The 3 funds I provided are examples of low cost index funds. Keep your expenses low and you'll do well. I will say parts of your portfolio may under perform but that's NORMAL. Do not panic and try to sell. Simply buy and hold and that's it.

You're nearing retirement and you don't want to be taking unnecessary risk. I would suggest having more bonds in your portfolio to protect you from any downturns in the market.

I hope that helps and please try and sell the Tesla stocks. They're a huge risk for you. Nobody knows when the value of Tesla stocks will decline.
I wouldn't correlate the two but I understand what you are trying to get across in terms of the overall risks. I've been trying to have a more disciplined approach towards risk and I know that holding this stock is very risky. I currently have 50% of my retirement in bonds, but I do hold stocks as equities in my portfolio. I hold about 10 company stocks, I'm trying to move away from individual names and get a fund to help manage the risk. This was before learning about the bogleheads approach.
annu
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Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help?

Post by annu »

I get that Index funds are safe, as you cannot pick a winner, but if by luck, you have already, why should you switch. Tesla is in a very good spot, has very good branding(almost apple level fanboys), they are able to improve and deliver, have been able to make an impact in a segment, where so many big players already existed, so have proven to be unqiue and are now dealing with scaling. So it is not fixing or finding a product/niche to sell, but figure out to make enough to meet the demand.....
I would personally keep the investment, especially since looks like you got in at a good price point.
pseudoiterative
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Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help?

Post by pseudoiterative »

I think mrspock offers good advice: leaving aside how much of your TSLA you are willing to sell, it would be a reasonable move to buy into low-cost vanguard ETFs that mrspock suggests -- either one that tracks the US market, or one that tracks the world market, or some mix of both. Doesn't matter exactly how you do it, doing it in any way would massively reduce exposure to the risk of TSLA (both the upside "risk" and downside risk).

In terms of how much to sell, one way to think about it is to break it down into the allocation decision of how much to sell (in your control), possible market result (not in your control), outcome to total portfolio, and how would you feel about that outcome. E.g. suppose we're considering how much TSLA to sell, assuming we're going to immediately buy into a low cost S&P500 passive ETF:

Code: Select all

TSLA allocation		Mr. Market's returns		total-return	any-regrets?
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
sell 5%	TSLA		TSLA +100% ; S&P500 +5%		+95%		probably not
sell 5%	TSLA		TSLA -50% ; S&P500 +5%		-47%		maybe some?
sell 95% TSLA		TSLA +100% ; S&P500 +5%		+9.8%		maybe some?
sell 95% TSLA		TSLA -50% ; S&P500 +5%		+0%		probably not
Of course, there's a lot more possible rows, the S&P500 sure could go down too, by 30% or what have you, but you get the idea. It's a tool to frame the decision and help think about possible outcomes and how you might react to them.
pseudoiterative
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Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help?

Post by pseudoiterative »

Morningstar's analyst coverage for TSLA is interesting. In mid march they reckoned a fair value for the share was $239, now they reckon a fair value is "about $731". There's probably a false precision there -- given the sensitivity of the valuation to events of the last few weeks it seems like they can value it to about 0 signficant figures ( 7 is pretty different from 2 ).

https://www.morningstar.com/articles/98 ... first-time
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mrspock
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Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help?

Post by mrspock »

AD3 wrote: Fri May 01, 2020 2:17 am
mrspock wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:02 am Congrats on your gains. You are going to get a ton of complex answers, here's my short simple answer: if it's in a tax advantaged account, sell it down to 10-15% of your overall portfolio value, and if this is in the equity portion of your AA, buy VTI or VOO instead. These are broadly diversified Total Market (VTI) and S&P 500 (VOO) index funds run by Vanguard.
Thanks, any reason why you wouldn't suggest selling the overall position over 10-15%?
The general advice most Bogleheads will give is stick to index funds for 85-90% of your equity portfolio and the other 10-15% you can use for stock picking without doing too much damage to your long term goals/retirement nest egg if you choose poorly. If you are completely done with your Tesla "ride" then selling out the entire thing is a perfectly good choice as well. Even more so if you can or have (tax loss) harvested any losses during the recent downturn, and can wash out the gains with those losses.
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Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help?

Post by bikesandbeers »

I think Tesla is great company with a technology lead, but very volatile as a long term investment. I've sold some tesla stock both times and it's gone over 800, but I have nevered had more than a handful of shares. I'd sell some, and if you are within a few years of retirement maybe it's time to start thinking about your moving a bit conservative on your AA.
Do you have other things you can sell to TLH to offset some of you gains?
You could also set some 60 day limit orders to protect you gains while you think about what to do, but with the high volatility it could be hard to find the right price. I feel like it would drop 300 points if Elon got hit by a rocket or run over by a Cybertruck.
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CyclingDuo
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Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help?

Post by CyclingDuo »

AD3 wrote: Fri May 01, 2020 2:07 amI don't have an IPS, I do participate in my ESPP plan from time to time but the stock price rose to levels that made it difficult to justify buying the stock. With this invest I fall more in the later of having a growth stock out perform and not realizing the gains and moving the money else where. I like the idea of harvesting the gains and allocating the money to other areas of my retirement. The one mistake I made in buying this stock was the fact that I bought the shares in a non taxable account. I'm kicking myself over that mistake, this was pre-bogleheads. :oops: I have close to half of my retirement in bonds, so I'm most likely putting this towards equities.
Well, there's always no time like the present to write your IPS. Here's the link to do that...

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Investm ... _statement

Our IPS has said no more than 8% in any individual stock at any given time. I have a few stocks that kept bumping up to that level the past few years as I let them run and they jumped to the top of the index fund holdings list. So I continually knocked them back when they did from my individual stock holdings.

Keep in mind, that if you own index funds what the percentage of Tesla is within that fund (or any stock) to add to your individual share holding of it for your overall portfolio. So, if you own VOO (Vanguard S&P 500) which already holds 5.6% in Microsoft or VTI (Vanguard Total Stock Market Index) which already holds 4.8% in Microsoft - you have to calculate your individual shares of Microsoft as well to figure out the risk you are taking in an individual stock for your overall portfolio. I have no idea where Tesla falls in that calculation as I don't follow the stock.

CyclingDuo
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canadianbacon
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Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help?

Post by canadianbacon »

Well this thread could take a turn...
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bikesandbeers
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Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help?

Post by bikesandbeers »

canadianbacon wrote: Fri May 01, 2020 11:51 am Well this thread could take a turn...
Are you referring the the fact that Elon Musk tweeted that Tesla stock price was too high this morning, crashing it 10%, wiping out $13 billion of market cap? Makes me glad I sold a couple of shares at 800, and really illustrates the portfolio risk of relying too much on a single stock, or even group of stocks.
The POTUS tweeting may move your index fund a 1% or 2%, which is still hugely impact to the whole market, but won't make or break your retirement.

I would note that any profits I have made on Tesla have mostly been offset by a few bad bets. Which is why 90% of my portfolio is in broad mutual funds.
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Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help?

Post by jhsu802701 »

Take the money and run! Sell it all! Tesla stock is a bubble.

Although I like what Tesla has been doing, the fact remains that it has yet to make money but is still valued at $144 billion (#36 biggest). Just take your profits and pay your taxes. It's better to pay capital gains taxes than to lose the gains or (even worse) have a capital loss.

A lot of people have an irrational aversion to taxes. They're willing to pay $2 or more to save $1 in taxes. Don't be one of them.
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Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help?

Post by StormShadow »

bikesandbeers wrote: Fri May 01, 2020 12:53 pm
canadianbacon wrote: Fri May 01, 2020 11:51 am Well this thread could take a turn...
Are you referring the the fact that Elon Musk tweeted that Tesla stock price was too high this morning, crashing it 10%, wiping out $13 billion of market cap?
I kinda sorta noticed that. I wonder what Warren Buffet thinks of high stock prices. I'm gonna go out on a limb and guess that its not something Warren's too worried about. :beer
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Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help?

Post by Valuethinker »

jhsu802701 wrote: Fri May 01, 2020 1:07 pm Take the money and run! Sell it all! Tesla stock is a bubble.

Although I like what Tesla has been doing, the fact remains that it has yet to make money but is still valued at $144 billion (#36 biggest). Just take your profits and pay your taxes. It's better to pay capital gains taxes than to lose the gains or (even worse) have a capital loss.

A lot of people have an irrational aversion to taxes. They're willing to pay $2 or more to save $1 in taxes. Don't be one of them.
I agree.

Sell and take the money off the table. Paying tax is a necessary component of winning.

At least 80% of the holding. One can keep the remaining 30k as a "souvenir" if one wants. So if it is the next Apple then one has a seat at the table
And if it drops to zero then one can shrug.

I know too many people who had Nortel stock. Once 2nd to Cisco only, I believe, as a manufacturer of communications gear. 25 per cent of the whole Canada index.

The internet, it was the future. Especially the mobile internet. And no company better placed than Nortel to benefit.

I can tell you a similar story about Mokia before the iPhone came out. It was the worlds largest handset manufacturer.

Nortel Peaked at 150, bottomed at 0. Bankrupt. I sold mine for about 50 cents.
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Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help?

Post by 1789 »

I would sell all Tesla shares. And congrats on your gains.
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AD3
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Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help? Update

Post by AD3 »

Update: Jan 15, 2021: I ended up holding the stock and my retirement portfolio has multiplied by five. I'm having a hard time dumping the stock. Since my last post, the stock has split and the number of shares I now have are five times what they were before the split. I know that many are suggesting I sell, but I think FOMO is getting the better of me. Since my initial investment was so small, I think I'm willing to hold the stock. One addition thing is I will have to pay ordinary tax on the sale of the stock in the future. I wish I had bought the stock in my Roth IRA, but oh well. :oops:
benderbr
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Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help? Update

Post by benderbr »

You won't pay any tax until you withdraw the funds from your retirement account. Thinking about it as a small investment you made in the past is not helping you. Think about the current value. What percentage of your overall net worth is in TSLA and are you comfortable with that?
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Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help? Update

Post by surfstar »

Congrats.

This will be quite hard behaviorally. By not listening to the BH advice, you've created even more outsized gains.
But - at what point do you lock them in? Hold until retirement? Sell all now? Half now?

Tough decisions. Easier for me as I don't hold single stocks. The FOMO isn't that great, and I actually missed out. You didn't miss out, and still have FOMO.
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Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help? Update

Post by Pegasus_RPG »

So you ignored BH advice and got super lucky. Congratulations, but this means lights are flashing bright red with buzzers to sell most of the position and diversify into Total Stock Market (and Total Bond Market if you need more of that for your AA.) Take the chips off of the table.

If you bought it with "play money" then do what you want, but I would at the very least sell enough to cover your initial investment plus LTCG taxes. How would you feel if you hang on further and it drops 40% in the next few months?

Edit: Just realized you're holding this in a Traditional retirement account. Since these funds will be needed far in the future, it's even more important you lock in your gains now and diversify as there's no consequence to doing so in a retirement account. As for taxes, think of the gains as extending the time your funds will sustain you. Plus you may have opportunities to convert to Roth during low income years in the future.
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Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help? Update

Post by burritoLover »

You don't want to be the last one on the ride when it goes over the cliff. How devastated would you be if it drops 80-90% before you can do anything about it? If you would have the attitude of "oh, well, I tried, it was a fun run while it lasted", then ride it out. If you would be banging your head against the wall for the next year, then time to lock in those profits.
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exodusNH
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Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help? Update

Post by exodusNH »

AD3 wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 1:25 pm Update: Jan 15, 2021: I ended up holding the stock and my retirement portfolio has multiplied by five. I'm having a hard time dumping the stock. Since my last post, the stock has split and the number of shares I now have are five times what they were before the split. I know that many are suggesting I sell, but I think FOMO is getting the better of me. Since my initial investment was so small, I think I'm willing to hold the stock. One addition thing is I will have to pay ordinary tax on the sale of the stock in the future. I wish I had bought the stock in my Roth IRA, but oh well. :oops:
It's got a P/E ratio of over 1,600. There will be a reckoning. In January 2002, the market was at 46 and then dropped each year until bottoming out at 17 in January 2007. It rocketed back up to 70 by January 2009 and then fell to 20 in January 2010. (https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio/table/by-year)

You're not going to pay tax all at once. You'll pay it on whatever you withdraw.

What about selling half of it? With it being part of the S&P 500, if you buy that index or a total stock fund, you'll still ride the rise, if it's there.
2903490324
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Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help? Update

Post by 2903490324 »

AD3 wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 1:25 pm Update: Jan 15, 2021: I ended up holding the stock and my retirement portfolio has multiplied by five. I'm having a hard time dumping the stock. Since my last post, the stock has split and the number of shares I now have are five times what they were before the split. I know that many are suggesting I sell, but I think FOMO is getting the better of me. Since my initial investment was so small, I think I'm willing to hold the stock. One addition thing is I will have to pay ordinary tax on the sale of the stock in the future. I wish I had bought the stock in my Roth IRA, but oh well. :oops:
Why not buy more TSLA?
SmallSaver
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Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help? Update

Post by SmallSaver »

That was a genuine LOL from me. You did not take the Boglehead line and quintupled your way into (for me) life-changing money. Now I imagine you're in a real behavioral pickle. Maybe take some advice and solace from millennia of stories and parables about the consequences of avarice. If it were me I'd take most as gains and sit on the rest for the FOMO, but I would have done that a long time ago too (one reason I'm not cut out for individual stocks). Remember it's possible to make the wrong decision for the right reasons, and come up with something you're comfortable with.
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Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help? Update

Post by Brianmcg321 »

I would sell it all and put it into VTSAX.

No need to be greedy.
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retired@50
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Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help? Update

Post by retired@50 »

AD3 wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 1:25 pm Update: Jan 15, 2021: I ended up holding the stock and my retirement portfolio has multiplied by five. I'm having a hard time dumping the stock. Since my last post, the stock has split and the number of shares I now have are five times what they were before the split. I know that many are suggesting I sell, but I think FOMO is getting the better of me. Since my initial investment was so small, I think I'm willing to hold the stock. One addition thing is I will have to pay ordinary tax on the sale of the stock in the future. I wish I had bought the stock in my Roth IRA, but oh well. :oops:
Would you rather take 80% of your gains and give Uncle Sam 20% or continue to ride...

80% of a fortune is still pretty good, no?

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aktx97
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Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help? Update

Post by aktx97 »

I'd so lock in those gains. Like on Tuesday.
Keep calm and stay the course.
Dr. Dad
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Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help? Update

Post by Dr. Dad »

Not sure whether you’ve shared this yet:
—your age?
—still planning to retire in 2025?
—what percentage of your investable assets is represented by current value of TSLA?

Depending on answers to above questions..it might be reasonable to hold onto your TSLA investment.
It wouldn’t shock me to see TSLA dip down 20-40% at some point but long term I expect it to go up and up.

DD
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Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help? Update

Post by qwerty123 »

AD3 wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 1:25 pm Update: Jan 15, 2021: I ended up holding the stock and my retirement portfolio has multiplied by five. I'm having a hard time dumping the stock. Since my last post, the stock has split and the number of shares I now have are five times what they were before the split. I know that many are suggesting I sell, but I think FOMO is getting the better of me. Since my initial investment was so small, I think I'm willing to hold the stock. One addition thing is I will have to pay ordinary tax on the sale of the stock in the future. I wish I had bought the stock in my Roth IRA, but oh well. :oops:
I wouldn't make this an all or nothing decision if you are this uncertain / FOMO-ing. Why not sell half or 2/3rds and let the rest ride?
z3r0c00l
Posts: 2177
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Location: NYC
Contact:

Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help? Update

Post by z3r0c00l »

Personally I would cash in the lucky lotto ticket today. If you are worried about making a big move, sell half now and the other half January 2022.
FoolMeOnce
Posts: 1025
Joined: Mon Apr 24, 2017 11:16 am

Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help? Update

Post by FoolMeOnce »

Sell a big bunch and don't look back. Look, I get it, it was a successful lottery ticket already last April, and people told you to sell, you didn't, and you made a ton more money, so why listen to them now? But you will be sick if it all crashes. This is coming from someone who has realized over 50x on TSLA and still holds over 50x. By selling that 50x (mostly least year), I've missed out on a ton more gains, but I have no* regrets. There's no way I would've held onto all of it from last February through now, as it would've grown to 1/3 of our assets and I would have freaked out at some point.

With that in mind, think about at what point you would feel compelled to sell if it keeps growing. If there is some breaking point you would reach, and especially if it is fairly close to where TSLA is right now, then that is the upside to compare to your possible regret following a crash, rather than seemingly unlimited upside.

*Well, almost no regrets, but I can't complain.
Triple digit golfer
Posts: 6825
Joined: Mon May 18, 2009 5:57 pm

Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help? Update

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Sell it all. You should have sold it all before. Just because it worked out doesn't mean it was the right decision. Holding individual stocks adds risk that is not expected to be compensated. Therefore, the answer to a question about whether to hold an individual stock is always no, regardless of the past, present, or future performance.
blastoff
Posts: 327
Joined: Thu Jan 19, 2012 12:04 pm

Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help? Update

Post by blastoff »

AD3 wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 1:25 pm Update: Jan 15, 2021: I ended up holding the stock and my retirement portfolio has multiplied by five. I'm having a hard time dumping the stock. Since my last post, the stock has split and the number of shares I now have are five times what they were before the split. I know that many are suggesting I sell, but I think FOMO is getting the better of me. Since my initial investment was so small, I think I'm willing to hold the stock. One addition thing is I will have to pay ordinary tax on the sale of the stock in the future. I wish I had bought the stock in my Roth IRA, but oh well. :oops:
Tesla is not going to be at a 5 trillion valuation in 2 years.

I would sell enough so that if tesla goes to zero, you still did a lot lot better than some index. It doesn't have to be all or even 60%, but whatever allows you to sleep at night.

Maybe buy an index with most of whatever you sell, and also put a little bit of proceeds towards whatever you think the next tesla is : )
blastoff
Posts: 327
Joined: Thu Jan 19, 2012 12:04 pm

Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help? Update

Post by blastoff »

Or, buy even more, on margin.
bugleheadd
Posts: 621
Joined: Fri Nov 29, 2019 11:25 am

Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help? Update

Post by bugleheadd »

If this is won the game amount of money that can help you retire years ahead of schedule, trade it in for vti and ride off into the sunset.

You only need to win once
solar99999
Posts: 94
Joined: Fri Mar 03, 2017 7:32 am

Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help? Update

Post by solar99999 »

blastoff wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 8:55 pm
AD3 wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 1:25 pm Update: Jan 15, 2021: I ended up holding the stock and my retirement portfolio has multiplied by five. I'm having a hard time dumping the stock. Since my last post, the stock has split and the number of shares I now have are five times what they were before the split. I know that many are suggesting I sell, but I think FOMO is getting the better of me. Since my initial investment was so small, I think I'm willing to hold the stock. One addition thing is I will have to pay ordinary tax on the sale of the stock in the future. I wish I had bought the stock in my Roth IRA, but oh well. :oops:
Tesla is not going to be at a 5 trillion valuation in 2 years.

I would sell enough so that if tesla goes to zero, you still did a lot lot better than some index. It doesn't have to be all or even 60%, but whatever allows you to sleep at night.

Maybe buy an index with most of whatever you sell, and also put a little bit of proceeds towards whatever you think the next tesla is : )
And how many thought it would be $783 billion two years ago?

Tons of short sellers still need to eventually buy to cover.

If you think its going up, buy more. If you think its going down, sell. If you don't know, hold. Seem likes OP doesn't know.

Disclosure: Owns no Tesla shares directly, only through ETFs.
Last edited by solar99999 on Fri Jan 15, 2021 9:40 pm, edited 2 times in total.
- Buffetthead | | "[Cash is] thought of as “safe.” In truth they are among the most dangerous of assets."
KandT
Posts: 221
Joined: Sun Mar 26, 2017 2:32 am

Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help? Update

Post by KandT »

Interesting that no one here has mentioned Tesla's management or future plans.

1). The model Y is likely to be have enough demand that the Shanghai Giga can run at full capacity.
2). The model 3 and Y are top sellers in the US
3). Models X and S likely are getting refreshed as Tesla gave the go to deplete inventory to zero by the end of January. They had shut down the Freemont plant probably to refresh the models over the holiday.
4). They have the new 4680 small tabless batteries with improved heat dissipation and kWh cost running in a small line in Fremont. Maybe these are going into a refreshed X/Y line. Range will likely be industry leading. :sharebeer
5) Giga-Texas is going to be making at least the Cyber truck which is reported to have 500K orders. Albeit it does not take much to place an order at $100.
6) Giga Berlin is making massive progress. It should be fully running on the 4680 cell.
7) The "Mega-Press they are beginning to instal will change the way cars are made. By stamping out the front and rear and using the cells as a structural piece, the weight will decrease and range will improve. Cost of manufacturing decreases.
8) Model Y Plaid will give EV's a "Halo" and quite frankly a smack down to internal combustion engines. Likely a 1.9 second 0-60 and phenomenal handling.
9) Autonomy is improving at a tremendous rate moving from coding to computer learning.
10) Musk understands the key component to a successful EV company is gaining battery capacity. He has locked up not only his own lines but is signing long term partnerships with Panasonic and CATL.
11) China is coming out with their own design EV rumored to be in the $25,000 range. :)
12) Energy storage and solar generation have the potential to grow greatly.
13) Subscription services is how many people like to buy things (not me) but autonomy will likely b a subscription service running a constant revenue stream.
14) Never realized how hard it is to charge an EV until I had a friend buy a Hyundai EV. Without the Tesla infrastructure which no one else seems to want to do they are held captive by 1/2 of their range (1/2 out and 1/2 back home). :confused
15) When you bet on a company you are betting on the management. Musk has proven time and again he can out compete and outsmart the best in the world. He has changed the auto industry for good in the way Jobs changed phones. I can bet on Mary Barra or a person who figured out how to land first stage rocket boosters. I am going with Musk. :wink:

So the decision to buy or sell should come down to more than "that's not what Jack Bogle would recommend" in my opinion.

Of course Tesla does have competition coming and that competition will likely displace internal combustion engines - not Tesla. Even so they seem to think Tesla is a static target. Their "Tesla Killer" is going to come close to today's specs in 2024. Do they really believe Tesla is going to have those same specs 3 years from now? LOL!
Globalviewer58
Posts: 609
Joined: Fri Jul 18, 2008 3:26 pm

Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help? Update

Post by Globalviewer58 »

If you are bullish on Tesla shares you should sell the shares held in tIRA and buy equivalent number in Roth IRA. This keeps your Tesla holdings constant and avoids the higher tax cost of large RMDs in your retirement years.
Triple digit golfer
Posts: 6825
Joined: Mon May 18, 2009 5:57 pm

Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help? Update

Post by Triple digit golfer »

KandT wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 9:29 pm Interesting that no one here has mentioned Tesla's management or future plans.

1). The model Y is likely to be have enough demand that the Shanghai Giga can run at full capacity.
2). The model 3 and Y are top sellers in the US
3). Models X and S likely are getting refreshed as Tesla gave the go to deplete inventory to zero by the end of January. They had shut down the Freemont plant probably to refresh the models over the holiday.
4). They have the new 4680 small tabless batteries with improved heat dissipation and kWh cost running in a small line in Fremont. Maybe these are going into a refreshed X/Y line. Range will likely be industry leading. :sharebeer
5) Giga-Texas is going to be making at least the Cyber truck which is reported to have 500K orders. Albeit it does not take much to place an order at $100.
6) Giga Berlin is making massive progress. It should be fully running on the 4680 cell.
7) The "Mega-Press they are beginning to instal will change the way cars are made. By stamping out the front and rear and using the cells as a structural piece, the weight will decrease and range will improve. Cost of manufacturing decreases.
8) Model Y Plaid will give EV's a "Halo" and quite frankly a smack down to internal combustion engines. Likely a 1.9 second 0-60 and phenomenal handling.
9) Autonomy is improving at a tremendous rate moving from coding to computer learning.
10) Musk understands the key component to a successful EV company is gaining battery capacity. He has locked up not only his own lines but is signing long term partnerships with Panasonic and CATL.
11) China is coming out with their own design EV rumored to be in the $25,000 range. :)
12) Energy storage and solar generation have the potential to grow greatly.
13) Subscription services is how many people like to buy things (not me) but autonomy will likely b a subscription service running a constant revenue stream.
14) Never realized how hard it is to charge an EV until I had a friend buy a Hyundai EV. Without the Tesla infrastructure which no one else seems to want to do they are held captive by 1/2 of their range (1/2 out and 1/2 back home). :confused
15) When you bet on a company you are betting on the management. Musk has proven time and again he can out compete and outsmart the best in the world. He has changed the auto industry for good in the way Jobs changed phones. I can bet on Mary Barra or a person who figured out how to land first stage rocket boosters. I am going with Musk. :wink:

So the decision to buy or sell should come down to more than "that's not what Jack Bogle would recommend" in my opinion.

Of course Tesla does have competition coming and that competition will likely displace internal combustion engines - not Tesla. Even so they seem to think Tesla is a static target. Their "Tesla Killer" is going to come close to today's specs in 2024. Do they really believe Tesla is going to have those same specs 3 years from now? LOL!
If you know this information, so does the market.
z3r0c00l
Posts: 2177
Joined: Fri Jul 06, 2012 11:43 am
Location: NYC
Contact:

Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help? Update

Post by z3r0c00l »

KandT wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 9:29 pm Interesting that no one here has mentioned Tesla's management or future plans.

1). The model Y is likely to be have enough demand that the Shanghai Giga can run at full capacity.
2). The model 3 and Y are top sellers in the US
3). Models X and S likely are getting refreshed as Tesla gave the go to deplete inventory to zero by the end of January. They had shut down the Freemont plant probably to refresh the models over the holiday.
4). They have the new 4680 small tabless batteries with improved heat dissipation and kWh cost running in a small line in Fremont. Maybe these are going into a refreshed X/Y line. Range will likely be industry leading. :sharebeer
5) Giga-Texas is going to be making at least the Cyber truck which is reported to have 500K orders. Albeit it does not take much to place an order at $100.
6) Giga Berlin is making massive progress. It should be fully running on the 4680 cell.
7) The "Mega-Press they are beginning to instal will change the way cars are made. By stamping out the front and rear and using the cells as a structural piece, the weight will decrease and range will improve. Cost of manufacturing decreases.
8) Model Y Plaid will give EV's a "Halo" and quite frankly a smack down to internal combustion engines. Likely a 1.9 second 0-60 and phenomenal handling.
9) Autonomy is improving at a tremendous rate moving from coding to computer learning.
10) Musk understands the key component to a successful EV company is gaining battery capacity. He has locked up not only his own lines but is signing long term partnerships with Panasonic and CATL.
11) China is coming out with their own design EV rumored to be in the $25,000 range. :)
12) Energy storage and solar generation have the potential to grow greatly.
13) Subscription services is how many people like to buy things (not me) but autonomy will likely b a subscription service running a constant revenue stream.
14) Never realized how hard it is to charge an EV until I had a friend buy a Hyundai EV. Without the Tesla infrastructure which no one else seems to want to do they are held captive by 1/2 of their range (1/2 out and 1/2 back home). :confused
15) When you bet on a company you are betting on the management. Musk has proven time and again he can out compete and outsmart the best in the world. He has changed the auto industry for good in the way Jobs changed phones. I can bet on Mary Barra or a person who figured out how to land first stage rocket boosters. I am going with Musk. :wink:

So the decision to buy or sell should come down to more than "that's not what Jack Bogle would recommend" in my opinion.

Of course Tesla does have competition coming and that competition will likely displace internal combustion engines - not Tesla. Even so they seem to think Tesla is a static target. Their "Tesla Killer" is going to come close to today's specs in 2024. Do they really believe Tesla is going to have those same specs 3 years from now? LOL!
Many of these points are questionable or even refutable but ignore that for a moment. None of these Tesla-fan talking points justifies being worth more than the entire rest of the auto industry. Are they going to basically sell half of all cars and trucks in the coming decade? If they fall short of that then $800 billion is too lofty.
Investor1319
Posts: 56
Joined: Mon May 28, 2018 12:58 pm

Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help? Update

Post by Investor1319 »

Congratulations on such great gains!! I would take the money out and run...at least 90% of it!! Selling and having to deal with missing out if the stock goes up is much better to live with than "how could I have lost all that money"!!!
Nathan Drake
Posts: 771
Joined: Mon Apr 11, 2011 12:28 am

Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help? Update

Post by Nathan Drake »

AD3 wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 1:25 pm Update: Jan 15, 2021: I ended up holding the stock and my retirement portfolio has multiplied by five. I'm having a hard time dumping the stock. Since my last post, the stock has split and the number of shares I now have are five times what they were before the split. I know that many are suggesting I sell, but I think FOMO is getting the better of me. Since my initial investment was so small, I think I'm willing to hold the stock. One addition thing is I will have to pay ordinary tax on the sale of the stock in the future. I wish I had bought the stock in my Roth IRA, but oh well. :oops:
Why do you have FOMO?

You already won the lottery. There should be no fear of missing out because you didn't miss out. You 5X'd your money on an extremely risky stock that could just as easily lose 80% of its value, which is probably a lot more likely than it is to have another 2-3X multiplier in the near future.

You made a poor decision by not selling in April given the information available at the time. You had a very lucky outcome. Do not confuse strategy with outcome.
tdmp
Posts: 91
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 10:12 am

Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help? Update

Post by tdmp »

z3r0c00l wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 10:12 pm
KandT wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 9:29 pm Interesting that no one here has mentioned Tesla's management or future plans.

1). The model Y is likely to be have enough demand that the Shanghai Giga can run at full capacity.
2). The model 3 and Y are top sellers in the US
3). Models X and S likely are getting refreshed as Tesla gave the go to deplete inventory to zero by the end of January. They had shut down the Freemont plant probably to refresh the models over the holiday.
4). They have the new 4680 small tabless batteries with improved heat dissipation and kWh cost running in a small line in Fremont. Maybe these are going into a refreshed X/Y line. Range will likely be industry leading. :sharebeer
5) Giga-Texas is going to be making at least the Cyber truck which is reported to have 500K orders. Albeit it does not take much to place an order at $100.
6) Giga Berlin is making massive progress. It should be fully running on the 4680 cell.
7) The "Mega-Press they are beginning to instal will change the way cars are made. By stamping out the front and rear and using the cells as a structural piece, the weight will decrease and range will improve. Cost of manufacturing decreases.
8) Model Y Plaid will give EV's a "Halo" and quite frankly a smack down to internal combustion engines. Likely a 1.9 second 0-60 and phenomenal handling.
9) Autonomy is improving at a tremendous rate moving from coding to computer learning.
10) Musk understands the key component to a successful EV company is gaining battery capacity. He has locked up not only his own lines but is signing long term partnerships with Panasonic and CATL.
11) China is coming out with their own design EV rumored to be in the $25,000 range. :)
12) Energy storage and solar generation have the potential to grow greatly.
13) Subscription services is how many people like to buy things (not me) but autonomy will likely b a subscription service running a constant revenue stream.
14) Never realized how hard it is to charge an EV until I had a friend buy a Hyundai EV. Without the Tesla infrastructure which no one else seems to want to do they are held captive by 1/2 of their range (1/2 out and 1/2 back home). :confused
15) When you bet on a company you are betting on the management. Musk has proven time and again he can out compete and outsmart the best in the world. He has changed the auto industry for good in the way Jobs changed phones. I can bet on Mary Barra or a person who figured out how to land first stage rocket boosters. I am going with Musk. :wink:

So the decision to buy or sell should come down to more than "that's not what Jack Bogle would recommend" in my opinion.

Of course Tesla does have competition coming and that competition will likely displace internal combustion engines - not Tesla. Even so they seem to think Tesla is a static target. Their "Tesla Killer" is going to come close to today's specs in 2024. Do they really believe Tesla is going to have those same specs 3 years from now? LOL!

Many of these points are questionable or even refutable but ignore that for a moment. None of these Tesla-fan talking points justifies being worth more than the entire rest of the auto industry. Are they going to basically sell half of all cars and trucks in the coming decade? If they fall short of that then $800 billion is too lofty.
TSLA as automotive is certainly not $800 billion market cap. That would be insane. However, the market is NOT pricing TSLA as automotive only. They have energy and software (for either future robotaxi or selling to others to have robotaxi). The Energy and Software is what make the market thinks it is an $800 billion company. Whether the market is right or wrong: who knows???? I am not saying that robotaxi will come to fruition or their energy division is going to mint money like AAPL. The market seems to think that it will.
240U
Posts: 47
Joined: Wed Nov 22, 2017 6:54 pm
Location: Silicon Valley

Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help? Update

Post by 240U »

Man, this could be my story. I invested $1K in TSLA at $34. i have sold high and bought low a few times and replaced the initial investment long ago. Now I am sitting on nearly $500K of TSLA and going through the exact same mind games that the OP is talking about.
KandT
Posts: 221
Joined: Sun Mar 26, 2017 2:32 am

Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help? Update

Post by KandT »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 10:05 pm
KandT wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 9:29 pm Interesting that no one here has mentioned Tesla's management or future plans.

1). The model Y is likely to be have enough demand that the Shanghai Giga can run at full capacity.
2). The model 3 and Y are top sellers in the US
3). Models X and S likely are getting refreshed as Tesla gave the go to deplete inventory to zero by the end of January. They had shut down the Freemont plant probably to refresh the models over the holiday.
4). They have the new 4680 small tabless batteries with improved heat dissipation and kWh cost running in a small line in Fremont. Maybe these are going into a refreshed X/Y line. Range will likely be industry leading. :sharebeer
5) Giga-Texas is going to be making at least the Cyber truck which is reported to have 500K orders. Albeit it does not take much to place an order at $100.
6) Giga Berlin is making massive progress. It should be fully running on the 4680 cell.
7) The "Mega-Press they are beginning to instal will change the way cars are made. By stamping out the front and rear and using the cells as a structural piece, the weight will decrease and range will improve. Cost of manufacturing decreases.
8) Model Y Plaid will give EV's a "Halo" and quite frankly a smack down to internal combustion engines. Likely a 1.9 second 0-60 and phenomenal handling.
9) Autonomy is improving at a tremendous rate moving from coding to computer learning.
10) Musk understands the key component to a successful EV company is gaining battery capacity. He has locked up not only his own lines but is signing long term partnerships with Panasonic and CATL.
11) China is coming out with their own design EV rumored to be in the $25,000 range. :)
12) Energy storage and solar generation have the potential to grow greatly.
13) Subscription services is how many people like to buy things (not me) but autonomy will likely b a subscription service running a constant revenue stream.
14) Never realized how hard it is to charge an EV until I had a friend buy a Hyundai EV. Without the Tesla infrastructure which no one else seems to want to do they are held captive by 1/2 of their range (1/2 out and 1/2 back home). :confused
15) When you bet on a company you are betting on the management. Musk has proven time and again he can out compete and outsmart the best in the world. He has changed the auto industry for good in the way Jobs changed phones. I can bet on Mary Barra or a person who figured out how to land first stage rocket boosters. I am going with Musk. :wink:

So the decision to buy or sell should come down to more than "that's not what Jack Bogle would recommend" in my opinion.

Of course Tesla does have competition coming and that competition will likely displace internal combustion engines - not Tesla. Even so they seem to think Tesla is a static target. Their "Tesla Killer" is going to come close to today's specs in 2024. Do they really believe Tesla is going to have those same specs 3 years from now? LOL!
If you know this information, so does the market.
Do you feel like that's why the market has driven the stock so high?
ApeAttack
Posts: 51
Joined: Wed Dec 23, 2020 8:28 pm

Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help? Update

Post by ApeAttack »

I own Tesla as well... it makes up about 1% of my portfolio since about half of my portfolio is an S&P 500 index fund. :)

OP, I give you permission to sell most or all of your Tesla stock, pay your taxes, and buy a diversified US stock index fund like VTSAX.

Enjoy your gains... you beat the market. Walk away with your winnings and celebrate. I'll have to be content with doing as well as the market.
Just another lazy index investor.
000
Posts: 4662
Joined: Thu Jul 23, 2020 12:04 am

Re: Tesla Stock. Need Help? Update

Post by 000 »

I'd sell 80% or so.
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