Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Have a question about your personal investments? No matter how simple or complex, you can ask it here.
User avatar
watchnerd
Posts: 9112
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 11:18 am
Location: Seattle, WA, USA

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by watchnerd »

BogleFanGal wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:52 am I'm really amazed at the flood of reactions and heavy posting activity on BH threads lately- as if the market's been down for months with no light at tunnel end vs just a week or two. If people are freaking out this much now, what will happen in the weeks and months ahead? I don't remember this much angst at the beginnning of the 2008-2010 recession - it wasn't till it kept dragging on and continuing to plummet that many started feeling like maybe there wasn't going to be an end in sight and it really WAS different this time.
People weren't hoarding supplies and food in 2008.

Schools, events, movie theaters weren't being shut down.

Most of life appeared to be normal in 2008.

Living in an outbreak zone here in Washington state, we're perhaps a bit ahead of the curve compared to what many will soon be experiencing.
60% Global Market Stocks (VT,FM) | 38% Global Market Bonds | 2% crypto & securitized gold || LMP TIPS/STRIPS || RSU + ESPP
User avatar
BogleFanGal
Posts: 722
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 6:59 pm

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by BogleFanGal »

watchnerd wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:03 am
BogleFanGal wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:52 am I'm really amazed at the flood of reactions and heavy posting activity on BH threads lately- as if the market's been down for months with no light at tunnel end vs just a week or two. If people are freaking out this much now, what will happen in the weeks and months ahead? I don't remember this much angst at the beginnning of the 2008-2010 recession - it wasn't till it kept dragging on and continuing to plummet that many started feeling like maybe there wasn't going to be an end in sight and it really WAS different this time.
People weren't hoarding supplies and food in 2008.

Schools, events, movie theaters weren't being shut down.

Most of life appeared to be normal in 2008.

Living in an outbreak zone here in Washington state, we're perhaps a bit ahead of the curve compared to what many will soon be experiencing.
fair point - everything is starting to shut down here as well. I guess (rightly or wrongly) I still see this as a "wait and see" thing we have to grind through - something that is unfortunate, but will pass in due time - 4-6 months, maybe a year tops, as we hear about more people getting the virus and recovering without too much drama (albeit sadly not all people, of course), and life slowly returns to normal.

Unfortunately, a measured response is not how most people think. Society is magnitudes more reactionary and prone to hysterical action than even 10-15 years ago, aided by breathless 24/7 online and broadcast media magnifying everything as catastrophic - it's all pitch black - no gray. And there are few objective, responsible journalists left ...it's all web trash clickbait and right vs left slants today. The way people are hoarding food, water and supplies - the run on stores - feels like overkill.

Or maybe history will prove me wrong and it really is the end of the world. In which case, I'm well stocked on cheap wine, beer and Netflix in the meantime. :beer
"Life would be infinitely happier if we could only be born at the age of eighty and gradually approach eighteen." Mark Twain
googly_moogly
Posts: 31
Joined: Sat Jan 04, 2014 7:25 pm

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by googly_moogly »

(Note: I think I was about 5 years from early retirement. Now maybe I'm 10 years, hopefully not 20 years aka full retirement age for me.)

I'm changing behavior, but I think I'm also "staying the course", or the course I should have had. To wit:
  • Since my IPS is "Track the Vanguard 2030 retirement fund", I updated my "holdings" spreadsheet this weekend with my current holding values, and updated my AA target with the latest VTHRX portfolio composition since I'm matching its glide path.
  • I finally added a "5/25" tab to my retirement spreadsheet based on the rebalancing wiki. It shows my domestic bonds broke through the upper band, as I guessed.
  • Did the calculations for rebalancing within my 401k. Previously, some bogleheads were doubtful about international bonds (see my last portfolio check), but I did find that my BNDX holdings dropped 1.5% from peak while my domestic bonds dropped 2%. So, if anything that cemented international bonds in my IPS.
  • Put orders in my 401k to rebalance out of domestic bonds into the other 3 funds (intl bond, intl/dom stock) so that I'm back at my target allocation for each.
  • Put orders in my brokerage account at Vanguard for my first-ever TLH. I had turned off all automatic reinvestment 32+ days ago in anticipation (because I bought some VTIAX in an IRA 32 days ago, so I've been waiting to TLH through the downturn until today). All of my VTIAX is underwater so I'm exchanging 100% into VFWAX. I have one underwater batch of VTSAX I'm exchanging into VLCAX.
  • Keeping our automatic retirement contributions as-is (ratios matching our current AA). I'm *not* putting any extra money in, as I started using YNAB 5 months back to try to track expenses and don't yet have a plan for how much cash to add monthly to after-tax brokerage. I feel keeping cash on hand right now until things settle is prudent. Once this craziness settles out and I have 1+ years in YNAB, I'll formulate a plan for what to add to brokerage (or mortgage pay-down, or both) to my IPS of our left-over monthly cash.
It feels really bad. I feel the panic. But I think these moves are prudent and something a person who is not *acting* on panic would do.
User avatar
22twain
Posts: 2823
Joined: Thu May 10, 2012 5:42 pm

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by 22twain »

I retired three years ago at 63. According to my plan, I will start Social Security in four years at 70. In the meantime I’m living off my investments. Before the current plunge, they were about 50x annual expenses and about 54% stock. Now they’re about 46x expenses and 48% stock. My target is 50% +/- 5%, so if they drop to 45% I will rebalance. The drop has been a bit disconcerting, but far from panic-inducing. My portfolio is still about 10% above what it was when I retired.

While Total Bond Market was going up a couple of weeks ago, I sold some of it, so I now have about 1.5 years of expenses in my money market account, and shouldn’t need to sell anything else until summer 2021. Hopefully things will have at least stabilized by then.
It's "Roth", not "ROTH". Senator William Roth was a person, not an acronym.
crit
Posts: 534
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2015 12:54 pm

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by crit »

Just for counting purposes: we did not stay the course.

Not out of fear, or needing the money. Or an incorrect AA.

This thing is truly huge,. It's nowhere near priced in because we've been intentionally deprived of the information necessary. The amount of head in sand is insane.

I don't care about the money. I'm much more afraid of losing my life when I am on the losing side of a respirator - rationing calculation. And that is where we're going, in less than a month.

But yeah, we moved some money around.
User avatar
watchnerd
Posts: 9112
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 11:18 am
Location: Seattle, WA, USA

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by watchnerd »

crit wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:44 am Just for counting purposes: we did not stay the course.

Not out of fear, or needing the money. Or an incorrect AA.

This thing is truly huge,. It's nowhere near priced in because we've been intentionally deprived of the information necessary. The amount of head in sand is insane.

I don't care about the money. I'm much more afraid of losing my life when I am on the losing side of a respirator - rationing calculation. And that is where we're going, in less than a month.

But yeah, we moved some money around.

I'm not following.

You're liquidating assets because you're concerned you won't survive this ordeal?

Am I understanding correctly?
60% Global Market Stocks (VT,FM) | 38% Global Market Bonds | 2% crypto & securitized gold || LMP TIPS/STRIPS || RSU + ESPP
OldSport
Posts: 560
Joined: Tue Jul 25, 2017 7:01 pm

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by OldSport »

Unfortunately I think this time truly is different. Things will eventually get better, but this is no typical bear market. It may be 6-18 months, depending on cures and vaccines. I wouldn't be surprised if the market peak to valley is second only to the Great Depression. The crash so far has been faster than the initial 1929 crash!

What I've learned is this. I can stomach the drop in equities, with all else being equal. What I cannot stomach, and what many Bogleheads forget, is having the combination of market crash coupled with recession or even a mini-depression (this sure seems like it), and getting laid off (due to severe recession) when the market is down, losing health insurance and contracting Coronavirus when health insurance is needed most. That can ruin many years of hard work due to a triple black swan. Not good. :oops: :oops: :oops:
User avatar
watchnerd
Posts: 9112
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 11:18 am
Location: Seattle, WA, USA

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by watchnerd »

OldSport wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:14 am Unfortunately I think this time truly is different. Things will eventually get better, but this is no typical bear market. It may be 6-18 months, depending on cures and vaccines. I wouldn't be surprised if the market peak to valley is second only to the Great Depression. The crash so far has been faster than the initial 1929 crash!

What I've learned is this. I can stomach the drop in equities, with all else being equal. What I cannot stomach, and what many Bogleheads forget, is having the combination of market crash coupled with recession or even a mini-depression (this sure seems like it), and getting laid off (due to severe recession) when the market is down, losing health insurance and contracting Coronavirus when health insurance is needed most. That can ruin many years of hard work due to a triple black swan. Not good. :oops: :oops: :oops:

Except for the getting corona part, everything else (stock crash, recession, job loss, loss of health care from job) seems like the same concerns from 2008.
60% Global Market Stocks (VT,FM) | 38% Global Market Bonds | 2% crypto & securitized gold || LMP TIPS/STRIPS || RSU + ESPP
CarpeDiem22
Posts: 271
Joined: Tue May 22, 2018 11:20 pm

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by CarpeDiem22 »

To be honest, the only thing that worries me on finances is all our fiat currencies going belly up now that every country is trying to pump in as much money as possible in the name of liquidity support.

Note to self: Buy a house. Financial assets may all go belly up.
User avatar
lock.that.stock
Posts: 136
Joined: Sun Apr 28, 2019 2:01 pm

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by lock.that.stock »

CarpeDiem22 wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:02 am To be honest, the only thing that worries me on finances is all our fiat currencies going belly up now that every country is trying to pump in as much money as possible in the name of liquidity support.

Note to self: Buy a house. Financial assets may all go belly up.
People getting laid off and reducing spending means less demand for real estate. What's your guarantee that real estate market won't crash?
User avatar
watchnerd
Posts: 9112
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 11:18 am
Location: Seattle, WA, USA

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by watchnerd »

CarpeDiem22 wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:02 am To be honest, the only thing that worries me on finances is all our fiat currencies going belly up now that every country is trying to pump in as much money as possible in the name of liquidity support.

Note to self: Buy a house. Financial assets may all go belly up.
What does fiat currencies going belly up mean? Inflation?
60% Global Market Stocks (VT,FM) | 38% Global Market Bonds | 2% crypto & securitized gold || LMP TIPS/STRIPS || RSU + ESPP
MakingBacon
Posts: 65
Joined: Tue Oct 02, 2018 1:15 am

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by MakingBacon »

I'm amazed at the amount of doomsayers and fearmongers suddenly showing up.
User avatar
watchnerd
Posts: 9112
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 11:18 am
Location: Seattle, WA, USA

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by watchnerd »

BogleFanGal wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:50 am
Or maybe history will prove me wrong and it really is the end of the world. In which case, I'm well stocked on cheap wine, beer and Netflix in the meantime. :beer
I haven't touched my asset allocation, so still staying the course and allocating new monies according to plan.

But I did restock the booze supply and ordered a case of SPAM*. :beer

*low sodium flavor, for health. ;)
60% Global Market Stocks (VT,FM) | 38% Global Market Bonds | 2% crypto & securitized gold || LMP TIPS/STRIPS || RSU + ESPP
dboeger1
Posts: 594
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2017 7:32 pm

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by dboeger1 »

100% VTWAX and keeping it that way. Unless my wife and I lose our jobs and are forced to liquidate when our emergency funds run out, which I suppose is possible but unlikely. I honestly haven't been checking our account balances much, but even when I do, I don't have much of an emotional reaction. I've trained myself to treat it like a long-term retirement investment (which is what it is). Yeah, I see it going down, but it's not like I was planning to withdraw it tomorrow anyway, so I'll just keep buying and hope to see it go up some day.
techland
Posts: 42
Joined: Mon Nov 19, 2018 2:16 am

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by techland »

lock.that.stock wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:10 am
CarpeDiem22 wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:02 am To be honest, the only thing that worries me on finances is all our fiat currencies going belly up now that every country is trying to pump in as much money as possible in the name of liquidity support.

Note to self: Buy a house. Financial assets may all go belly up.
People getting laid off and reducing spending means less demand for real estate. What's your guarantee that real estate market won't crash?

Oh, real estate market is going to crash. It just hasn't yet. To me, that is the most obvious outcome of all this.

Around where I live (Bay Area), all of the local governments are passing moratoriums on evictions because they know people are losing their jobs/hours. Now I suppose some landlords, and larger investment companies can sustain for some amount of time. But if this goes on long enough, mortgage payments will be missed, and we will have a major real estate crash. Same thing will happen with SFH.
Normchad
Posts: 2479
Joined: Thu Mar 03, 2011 7:20 am

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by Normchad »

Still staying the course. The net worth loss is pretty darn large. I feel fortunate that I think my job is secure, and I think my wife's job is secure. So I think I have a far-above-average ability to ride out whatever happens.

I am very concerned though that this will really hurt a lot of people, economically and potentially from a health perspective. I feel for those people. And I also recognize that the hurt is real, and will ripple everywhere in the economy.

I'm sure this week will be very interesting.

I have no intention of changing my investing/financial strategy. But you never know what the future may bring; and I may not be as secure as I think; or I may not have as much fortitude as I think I have.
CarpeDiem22
Posts: 271
Joined: Tue May 22, 2018 11:20 pm

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by CarpeDiem22 »

watchnerd wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:40 am
CarpeDiem22 wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:02 am To be honest, the only thing that worries me on finances is all our fiat currencies going belly up now that every country is trying to pump in as much money as possible in the name of liquidity support.

Note to self: Buy a house. Financial assets may all go belly up.
What does fiat currencies going belly up mean? Inflation?
Yes. Hyperinflation and dollars becoming worthless. Sorry if this feels like fear mongering but I do worry about this sometimes.
CarpeDiem22
Posts: 271
Joined: Tue May 22, 2018 11:20 pm

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by CarpeDiem22 »

techland wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:01 am
lock.that.stock wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:10 am
CarpeDiem22 wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:02 am To be honest, the only thing that worries me on finances is all our fiat currencies going belly up now that every country is trying to pump in as much money as possible in the name of liquidity support.

Note to self: Buy a house. Financial assets may all go belly up.
People getting laid off and reducing spending means less demand for real estate. What's your guarantee that real estate market won't crash?

Oh, real estate market is going to crash. It just hasn't yet. To me, that is the most obvious outcome of all this.

Around where I live (Bay Area), all of the local governments are passing moratoriums on evictions because they know people are losing their jobs/hours. Now I suppose some landlords, and larger investment companies can sustain for some amount of time. But if this goes on long enough, mortgage payments will be missed, and we will have a major real estate crash. Same thing will happen with SFH.
If I'm staying in the house, I won't need to worry about swings in market value of house or the rents.
bearcub
Posts: 1087
Joined: Sat Mar 08, 2008 7:54 am
Location: Twilight Zone

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by bearcub »

My IRAs are in Balanced funds. They rebalance for me, I don"t touch them. I go into the park on off hours onto the nature trails to breathe in that good a-s prana. At home I have some great craft ales to get me buy. I take this very serious. Trying to keep my good energy up + positive. :beer
ticktocker
Posts: 33
Joined: Thu Feb 15, 2018 12:33 pm

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by ticktocker »

CarpeDiem22 wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:10 am
watchnerd wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:40 am
CarpeDiem22 wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:02 am To be honest, the only thing that worries me on finances is all our fiat currencies going belly up now that every country is trying to pump in as much money as possible in the name of liquidity support.

Note to self: Buy a house. Financial assets may all go belly up.
What does fiat currencies going belly up mean? Inflation?
Yes. Hyperinflation and dollars becoming worthless. Sorry if this feels like fear mongering but I do worry about this sometimes.
This is out-and-out fear mongering. People said the same thing in '08. It was irresponsible then and it's irresponsible now.
User avatar
Sandtrap
Posts: 13452
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2016 6:32 pm
Location: Hawaii No Ka Oi , N. Arizona

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by Sandtrap »

22twain wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:28 pm I retired three years ago at 63. According to my plan, I will start Social Security in four years at 70. In the meantime I’m living off my investments. Before the current plunge, they were about 50x annual expenses and about 54% stock. Now they’re about 46x expenses and 48% stock. My target is 50% +/- 5%, so if they drop to 45% I will rebalance. The drop has been a bit disconcerting, but far from panic-inducing. My portfolio is still about 10% above what it was when I retired.

While Total Bond Market was going up a couple of weeks ago, I sold some of it, so I now have about 1.5 years of expenses in my money market account, and shouldn’t need to sell anything else until summer 2021. Hopefully things will have at least stabilized by then.
Congratulations on your successes and strategy.
You've built a fine "Ark" indeed with that 46X.

There is no substitute for shear size and seaworthiness of a large and carefully constructed portfolio.

j :happy
Wiki Bogleheads Wiki: Everything You Need to Know
User avatar
Sandtrap
Posts: 13452
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2016 6:32 pm
Location: Hawaii No Ka Oi , N. Arizona

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by Sandtrap »

BogleFanGal wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:50 am
watchnerd wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:03 am
BogleFanGal wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:52 am I'm really amazed at the flood of reactions and heavy posting activity on BH threads lately- as if the market's been down for months with no light at tunnel end vs just a week or two. If people are freaking out this much now, what will happen in the weeks and months ahead? I don't remember this much angst at the beginnning of the 2008-2010 recession - it wasn't till it kept dragging on and continuing to plummet that many started feeling like maybe there wasn't going to be an end in sight and it really WAS different this time.
People weren't hoarding supplies and food in 2008.

Schools, events, movie theaters weren't being shut down.

Most of life appeared to be normal in 2008.

Living in an outbreak zone here in Washington state, we're perhaps a bit ahead of the curve compared to what many will soon be experiencing.
fair point - everything is starting to shut down here as well. I guess (rightly or wrongly) I still see this as a "wait and see" thing we have to grind through - something that is unfortunate, but will pass in due time - 4-6 months, maybe a year tops, as we hear about more people getting the virus and recovering without too much drama (albeit sadly not all people, of course), and life slowly returns to normal.

Unfortunately, a measured response is not how most people think. Society is magnitudes more reactionary and prone to hysterical action than even 10-15 years ago, aided by breathless 24/7 online and broadcast media magnifying everything as catastrophic - it's all pitch black - no gray. And there are few objective, responsible journalists left ...it's all web trash clickbait and right vs left slants today. The way people are hoarding food, water and supplies - the run on stores - feels like overkill.

Or maybe history will prove me wrong and it really is the end of the world. In which case, I'm well stocked on cheap wine, beer and Netflix in the meantime. :beer
Good points.
There are only 6 companies that own over 90% of nearly all media types (online, digital, video, print, news, broadcasting, etc).
What are the implications of that?

All the more reason to ignore the "noise", parse information, and encourage others to "stay the course" until the storm passes.
j :happy
Wiki Bogleheads Wiki: Everything You Need to Know
CarpeDiem22
Posts: 271
Joined: Tue May 22, 2018 11:20 pm

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by CarpeDiem22 »

ticktocker wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:29 am
CarpeDiem22 wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:10 am
watchnerd wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:40 am
CarpeDiem22 wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:02 am To be honest, the only thing that worries me on finances is all our fiat currencies going belly up now that every country is trying to pump in as much money as possible in the name of liquidity support.

Note to self: Buy a house. Financial assets may all go belly up.
What does fiat currencies going belly up mean? Inflation?
Yes. Hyperinflation and dollars becoming worthless. Sorry if this feels like fear mongering but I do worry about this sometimes.
This is out-and-out fear mongering. People said the same thing in '08. It was irresponsible then and it's irresponsible now.
Ok, so you seem to have the point of view that dollar will NEVER fail, at least not in the foreseeable future? If you don't mind, can you please name the oldest fiat currency active in the world today and its value today compared to starting value? Your answer will help soothe a lot of nerves.
User avatar
watchnerd
Posts: 9112
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 11:18 am
Location: Seattle, WA, USA

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by watchnerd »

CarpeDiem22 wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:52 am

Ok, so you seem to have the point of view that dollar will NEVER fail, at least not in the foreseeable future? If you don't mind, can you please name the oldest fiat currency active in the world today and its value today compared to starting value? Your answer will help soothe a lot of nerves.
Can we not turn this into a fiat currency discussion thread?

Perhaps you guys can start a new thread for that?

This one is about staying the course and net worth.
60% Global Market Stocks (VT,FM) | 38% Global Market Bonds | 2% crypto & securitized gold || LMP TIPS/STRIPS || RSU + ESPP
Calico
Posts: 738
Joined: Thu Jan 01, 2015 5:45 pm

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by Calico »

I am staying the course and I am dealing with it by doing what I always do, I don't look at the numbers. I will look in the summer when I do my annual rebalance so I am not sure how I will feel then. I was hoping to move to 25/75 or 30/70 this summer, I might be there already.
User avatar
TheTimeLord
Posts: 9245
Joined: Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:05 pm

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by TheTimeLord »

CarpeDiem22 wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:10 am
watchnerd wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:40 am
CarpeDiem22 wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:02 am To be honest, the only thing that worries me on finances is all our fiat currencies going belly up now that every country is trying to pump in as much money as possible in the name of liquidity support.

Note to self: Buy a house. Financial assets may all go belly up.
What does fiat currencies going belly up mean? Inflation?
Yes. Hyperinflation and dollars becoming worthless. Sorry if this feels like fear mongering but I do worry about this sometimes.
So we are going back to barter?
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
Wanderingwheelz
Posts: 1246
Joined: Mon Mar 04, 2019 9:52 am

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by Wanderingwheelz »

watchnerd wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:10 am
crit wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:44 am Just for counting purposes: we did not stay the course.

Not out of fear, or needing the money. Or an incorrect AA.

This thing is truly huge,. It's nowhere near priced in because we've been intentionally deprived of the information necessary. The amount of head in sand is insane.

I don't care about the money. I'm much more afraid of losing my life when I am on the losing side of a respirator - rationing calculation. And that is where we're going, in less than a month.

But yeah, we moved some money around.

I'm not following.

You're liquidating assets because you're concerned you won't survive this ordeal?

Am I understanding correctly?
He said he moved things around because when fear is at an unprecedented level as it is now, stocks are going lower.

He described his fear. It’s his opinion that people having the fears he does will cause lower stock prices.

Hope that helps.
3 Fund Portfolio. 70/30 AA. No mortgage. Simplicity is key.
User avatar
watchnerd
Posts: 9112
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 11:18 am
Location: Seattle, WA, USA

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by watchnerd »

TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:32 am

So we are going back to barter?
Folks -- the mods are likely to just delete these fiat currency debate posts as being off topic....
60% Global Market Stocks (VT,FM) | 38% Global Market Bonds | 2% crypto & securitized gold || LMP TIPS/STRIPS || RSU + ESPP
User avatar
TheTimeLord
Posts: 9245
Joined: Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:05 pm

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by TheTimeLord »

watchnerd wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:35 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:32 am

So we are going back to barter?
Folks -- the mods are likely to just delete these fiat currency debate posts as being off topic....
As they should.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
User avatar
Cubicle
Posts: 946
Joined: Sun Sep 22, 2019 1:43 am

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by Cubicle »

It's not great, but this is life. If I wanted absolute stability I'd have mattresses stuffed with cash. Or I'd have the largest collection of bank CDs the world has ever seen. But since I want more rewards (market gains), I have to accept punishment (market losses). No one can be invested in any company, a single or 13,000 global stocks, with only the upsides. No matter what the insurance salesman tells you.
"Oh look another bajillion point declin-Ooooh!!! A coupon for pizza!!!!" <--- This is what everyone's IPS should be. ✓✓✓
bob991
Posts: 33
Joined: Fri Jul 04, 2014 7:43 pm

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by bob991 »

44 years old. 90/10 and I am staying the course. I wasn't really sure how I would react to a downturn of this magnitude but I am surprisingly calm - I knew it would happen sooner or later. Reading this site over the years has helped prepare me. I happen to have some inheritance money on the side line and I will probably be investing here in the coming weeks. I am surprised at the level of panic on this site, but its just human nature I suppose. I appreciate reading posts from the older/calmer posters.
Chaconne
Posts: 216
Joined: Sat Dec 15, 2007 4:18 pm

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by Chaconne »

In mid-February (so long ago, it seems!), with a nest egg 40 to 50 times my carefully estimated annual expenditures, my mind turned to the philosophy, “If you’ve won the game, stop playing.” I had recently gone from 60/40 (which I’d held rock-steady for more than 30 years) to 40/60 and figured I’d stick with that.

Last Thursday (3/12), I got spooked. I went from 40/60 to 26/74. I’m sleeping quite a bit better now, with something like a liability-matching portfolio: many years’ worth of expenses divided between Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund and Total Bond Index.

I started a thread about folks in early retirement, if you care to have a look:
viewtopic.php?f=1&t=305326

Age: 69, about a year into retirement.
User avatar
watchnerd
Posts: 9112
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 11:18 am
Location: Seattle, WA, USA

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by watchnerd »

bob991 wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:54 am I am surprised at the level of panic on this site, but its just human nature I suppose. I appreciate reading posts from the older/calmer posters.
It was pretty much the same in 2008-2009.

Markets are made of humans. Humans are emotional animals.

That's why the written IPS is important -- it's a reminder to fall back on your training.
60% Global Market Stocks (VT,FM) | 38% Global Market Bonds | 2% crypto & securitized gold || LMP TIPS/STRIPS || RSU + ESPP
User avatar
TheTimeLord
Posts: 9245
Joined: Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:05 pm

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by TheTimeLord »

Having implemented the Bernstein "Won the game" philosophy and my version of a modified bond tent I can say so far they are doing what I had hoped they would.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
sonowwhat?
Posts: 43
Joined: Sat Jan 02, 2010 10:39 am

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by sonowwhat? »

You guys posting doom and gloom are on the wrong forum and obviously are missing the point of the Boglehead strategy. I appreciate you though as if it were not for you I would not make near the amount of money I would otherwise. You see we have been through crisises before and we will again. I need your panic to drive stock prices down so when I re-balance (on predetermined dates regardless of the "news of the day"), I will make all the more. I will be greedy as your fear hits a frenzied peak. If you cannot stomach what is going on then you were not appropriately balanced between equities/bonds going into this. It takes a crisis like this though to figure it out so your not really to blame. After you consider all the age, retirement etc. factors when selecting your balance you need to ask yourself two more questions: 1) How am I sleeping? 2) Am I overly tempted to sell and lock in my losses? It's too late now though. Adjust after the dip, say late summer. In the meantime ride this out! Wash your hands, social distance and do something you would never have done without the virus rearing it's ugly head (i.e. read a good book, start and exercise program.......). Stop watching the news and social media!

I leave you with the words of Warren Buffett:

“We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.”
sil2017
Posts: 560
Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2017 7:25 am

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by sil2017 »

Staying the course.

I retired almost 3 years ago. I have lived off my pension and have not touched my retirement account. It is at 65 % stock and 35 % bond.

I do have some non retirement money in a money market.

I plan to purchase ETF.
fwellimort
Posts: 717
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:41 am

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by fwellimort »

Sold my UPRO/TMF HEDGEFUNDIE on both my IRAs (relatively small portion of money in UPRO on my taxable is just left uncaring -speculation cause I can afford to lose all-).
Converted them in IRA to the total stock market today. I expect markets to go down another up to 18% or so but at same time, since I already 'beat the market' with UPRO/TMF on my IRA, I don't feel guilty changing them to SCHB.

I trust the US stock market to recover. I know it will in my investment horizon. And I realized I trust it so well that I don't lose sleep over it.
But those 3x leveraged funds? That's a different story.
That said, I do trust that as dumb as 3x leverage funds are, they are probably going to outperform after this recession.
However, I realize it's not worth losing sleep over in my serious money end of day.

Cheers :sharebeer
ebrasmus21
Posts: 340
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2016 6:06 pm

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by ebrasmus21 »

Don’t really give a [expletive deleted by moderator oldcomputerguy] about my net worth at the moment. Just hoping the wife and I stay fully employed
Pikel
Posts: 228
Joined: Sat Jan 04, 2020 9:55 am

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by Pikel »

Did some TLH earlier and just did my monthly purchase of VTI.

I am 100% the world isn't ending, and if it does we are all going down with the ship anyway.
User avatar
ruralavalon
Posts: 21380
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2008 10:29 am
Location: Illinois

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by ruralavalon »

ebrasmus21 wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:27 am Don’t really give a [expletive deleted by moderator oldcomputerguy] about my net worth at the moment. Just hoping the wife and I stay fully employed
I do care about our net worth. But mostly I am hoping we and our friends stay healthy.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started
matthewbarnhart
Posts: 78
Joined: Sat Feb 25, 2017 4:05 pm

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by matthewbarnhart »

43 years old. Been investing for 6 years. 100% VT, enough cash to sleep well at night, and very flexible/low regular expenses.

Before this whole mess started, I had about 10.8 years worth of normal expenses invested. Now it's down to about 9.2 years.

Kinda surprised I haven't even blinked, but happy that the lessons I learned from JL Collins have stuck. My biggest (financial) concern right now is not triggering a wash sale as I attempt to tax-loss harvest for the first time.
User avatar
tadamsmar
Posts: 9352
Joined: Mon May 07, 2007 12:33 pm

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by tadamsmar »

We are rationing our net worth by consuming it slow enough so that we don’t run out

:sharebeer
User avatar
LthanP
Posts: 25
Joined: Sun Apr 29, 2018 12:09 pm
Location: a few quiet getaways

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by LthanP »

I already posted earlier in the thread what I was doing. Updated today: I am buying $1,000 dollars worth of stock (mutual fund so adding to position) . Not because it will make a difference one way or another in my net worth, but it makes me feel good and I want to be able to tell my kids I believe in the country and the future. It just a small thing I am doing.
-- LTP Less than Perfect. I got myself a Cadillac, But I can't afford the gasoline
sonowwhat?
Posts: 43
Joined: Sat Jan 02, 2010 10:39 am

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by sonowwhat? »

LthanP wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:28 pm I already posted earlier in the thread what I was doing. Updated today: I am buying $1,000 dollars worth of stock (mutual fund so adding to position) . Not because it will make a difference one way or another in my net worth, but it makes me feel good and I want to be able to tell my kids I believe in the country and the future. It just a small thing I am doing.
I love this!!!! Gonna do the same thing today!
BinkUSMC
Posts: 10
Joined: Wed Dec 25, 2019 6:38 pm

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by BinkUSMC »

I am as well staying the course. I contribute to my Roth at the beginning of each month. I am looking forward to that day! However, I will say it is a little weird seeing the markets act like this since this is the 1st time I have been in the market and also during a correction/recession/depression or whatever the hell THIS is.

I still have 25 years of teaching left before I retire.
EDosi
Posts: 31
Joined: Thu Mar 08, 2018 11:36 am

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by EDosi »

37 years old, 90/10 and I'm holding the line!

If I was to panic now then it would make no sense for me to have devoured the boglehead philosophy in the last 2-3 years. This is a great time for learning, self-growth and realizing what the foundation of our life is. I just hope that loved ones stay safe and healthy and that means all of you too!
:happy
User avatar
Ged
Posts: 3934
Joined: Mon May 13, 2013 1:48 pm
Location: Roke

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by Ged »

Admiral wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:52 am Market takes the escalator up, the elevator down, as some wise person once remarked.

Say hello to the elevator days! :?
More like jumping out a window down.

There is no question I will be buying equities before this is over.
mhalley
Posts: 8966
Joined: Tue Nov 20, 2007 6:02 am

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by mhalley »

Staying the course, but surprised at the emotions of such a huge loss so fast in retirement. I could rationalize the losses easily during accumulation with the “buying more shares at cheaper prices”. May need to reconsider my 50/50 aa, but doing nothing at all for now.
mbnc
Posts: 11
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:00 am
Location: Raleigh, NC

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by mbnc »

I'm staying the course; in fact, I plan to get more aggressive as long as my employment situation remains stable and we can keep meeting our cash flow needs. I haven't made any moves yet, but the plan is to gradually shift some retirement assets out of bonds and into equities, as well as increase our contributions. We've had a 70/30 AA for a couple of years now. That's fairly conservative for our age (early 30s), but it felt appropriate given the late stage of the business cycle. We'll probably go to 85/15 over the next few months, maybe even 90/10. HSA and IRAs are maxed out and will continue to be maxed out. For the 401k, my employer kicks in some very generous contributions which brings the total savings rate to about 16.5%. We'll probably go somewhere around 25% once we take a harder look at our expenses and see what we can spare.

We've also set aside a down payment for a move-up house. We had a short timeframe in mind (as early as this spring), so it's all in cash and equivalents. It can reinforce our emergency fund if things really hit the fan, or we could use it for its original purpose once things settle down a bit. But I'm also warming up to the idea of staying in this house a little longer and getting that money into the market for a couple of years, because I'm still expecting a sharp rebound. I don't know what I want to do with it anymore, but we'll figure it out as this develops.

As for net worth, I don't really care how that fluctuates as long as we can keep mouths fed and bills paid. At our age, we're still early in the wealth accumulation stage, so it's just a number that goes up and down but doesn't really affect our day-to-day lives. What's gone today will probably be back within a couple of years.

The most surprising thing for me is how little sleep this whole thing is costing me. It turns out I can stomach a bear market a lot better than I thought I could, at least for money that I'm not going to use for a while. I'd probably feel different if that down payment money was in the market, but then again, that's why it wasn't.
User avatar
dmcmahon
Posts: 2776
Joined: Fri Mar 21, 2008 10:29 pm

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Post by dmcmahon »

I am wondering if this is another opportunity to rejigger my portfolio with less tax consequences. Specifically I am wondering if I should sell out of VTI and buy something correlated to it but that doesn't throw off dividends. Or is VTI's lowish dividend as good as it gets? I recall someone posted this question here before the recent crash, but I can't find it now. Any thoughts? I recall suggesting XLK to that poster. The reason for doing this is to lower my taxable income in future years. On the bond side I've been shifting to the Vanguard California muni fund.
Post Reply