VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
-
- Posts: 25625
- Joined: Thu Apr 05, 2007 8:20 pm
- Location: New York
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
Vtsax
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions
-
- Posts: 1028
- Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2019 1:02 am
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
Why does this topic resurface 3-4 times per week with new threads? Why the fixation on international stock allocation? It seems we are having the same conversation over and over and over again. Yes, I prefer VTWAX. Yes, I have my reasons. But whatever, we don't need to have this conversation continuously. We are even reposting the same charts... Sure, they are interesting, but they were also quite interesting last week...
With a 35 year horizon, the most important thing is to add money to your equity fund regularly. That will make the biggest difference. If you are agonizing over VTSAX versus VTWAX and your time horizon is 35 years, that anguish should better be spent on figuring out how to earn more and/or save more so you can regularly invest for the next 35 years. That's where your energy should be focused.
With a 35 year horizon, the most important thing is to add money to your equity fund regularly. That will make the biggest difference. If you are agonizing over VTSAX versus VTWAX and your time horizon is 35 years, that anguish should better be spent on figuring out how to earn more and/or save more so you can regularly invest for the next 35 years. That's where your energy should be focused.
Asset Allocation: VT
- ruralavalon
- Posts: 26351
- Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2008 9:29 am
- Location: Illinois
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
+ 1.RJC wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2019 2:33 pm . . . . .
I believe we continue to dispute international allocation because there really isn't a big difference. Some of the language here is quite harsh for those sticking with a mostly US portfolio. It's the amount we save and bond allocation that will have more impact in the long run IMO.
We debate this so often because there is no clear right answer. Which also means that there is no clear wrong answer.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein |
Wiki article link: Bogleheads® investment philosophy
-
- Posts: 478
- Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2018 7:03 pm
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
Fair questions, but to play devil's advocate for a minute...... There are plenty of new people on the forum every day seeking to learn - as evident by the recurring questions. Clearly these folks weren't part of last week's discussion and the responses are all new information to them.Prahasaurus wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2019 2:53 pm Why does this topic resurface 3-4 times per week with new threads? Why the fixation on international stock allocation? It seems we are having the same conversation over and over and over again. Yes, I prefer VTWAX. Yes, I have my reasons. But whatever, we don't need to have this conversation continuously. We are even reposting the same charts... Sure, they are interesting, but they were also quite interesting last week...
With a 35 year horizon, the most important thing is to add money to your equity fund regularly. That will make the biggest difference. If you are agonizing over VTSAX versus VTWAX and your time horizon is 35 years, that anguish should better be spent on figuring out how to earn more and/or save more so you can regularly invest for the next 35 years. That's where your energy should be focused.
Counter-Question: In light of what you stated above about refocusing energy, What keeps you personally coming back to read and respond to the same topics over and over? I am genuinely curious.
VTWAX and chill
-
- Posts: 1028
- Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2019 1:02 am
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
1 - Yes, there are new people daily. But this topic is being rehashed daily. Maybe a mod can combine into one mega thread? Similar to the "The market is tanking" thread that has been running for years...bogledogle87 wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2019 3:08 pmFair questions, but to play devil's advocate for a minute...... There are plenty of new people on the forum every day seeking to learn - as evident by the recurring questions. Clearly these folks weren't part of last week's discussion and the responses are all new information to them.Prahasaurus wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2019 2:53 pm Why does this topic resurface 3-4 times per week with new threads? Why the fixation on international stock allocation? It seems we are having the same conversation over and over and over again. Yes, I prefer VTWAX. Yes, I have my reasons. But whatever, we don't need to have this conversation continuously. We are even reposting the same charts... Sure, they are interesting, but they were also quite interesting last week...
With a 35 year horizon, the most important thing is to add money to your equity fund regularly. That will make the biggest difference. If you are agonizing over VTSAX versus VTWAX and your time horizon is 35 years, that anguish should better be spent on figuring out how to earn more and/or save more so you can regularly invest for the next 35 years. That's where your energy should be focused.
Counter-Question: In light of what you stated above about refocusing energy, What keeps you personally coming back to read and respond to the same topics over and over? I am genuinely curious.
2 - I've gone from responding on why I chose VTWAX to responding that we need to create one monster thread and not keep rehashing the same arguments over and over again... This is probably my last comment on this topic. More a cry for help...
Asset Allocation: VT
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
I would say it keeps coming up because it is an important question for most/all on the forum and a worthwhile discussion. Back when I spent all of my time working and raising a family, I just plowed every retirement dollar into the S&P 500 and didn't think twice about it. Later, after I FIREd, I dabbled a bit with some foreign indexes, but ultimately decided to just stick with 100% US. It's simple and has always worked. I certainly respect those who choose to own the WHOLE haystack, but I also believe that diversification is not an end to itself. At a certain point it has served it's purpose and becomes subject to diminishing returns. I also believe that the U.S. is the most stable economy on earth and that U.S. companies will continue to dominate the global economy. I may be wrong, but that's why I use an LMP/RP strategy. Even if corporations fail, I believe that the U.S. Treasury will stand behind its commitments.Prahasaurus wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2019 2:53 pm Why does this topic resurface 3-4 times per week with new threads? Why the fixation on international stock allocation? It seems we are having the same conversation over and over and over again. Y
I am not a lawyer, accountant or financial advisor. Any advice or suggestions that I may provide shall be considered for entertainment purposes only.
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
There needs to be a "Final, Definitive Thread on International Asset Allocation".
Just like these:
DCA vs Lump Sum: viewtopic.php?t=132098
Rebalancing: viewtopic.php?t=149161
Value investing: viewtopic.php?t=96441
Anyone? @stlutz?
Just like these:
DCA vs Lump Sum: viewtopic.php?t=132098
Rebalancing: viewtopic.php?t=149161
Value investing: viewtopic.php?t=96441
Anyone? @stlutz?
Last edited by RJC on Thu May 16, 2019 4:01 pm, edited 5 times in total.
- ruralavalon
- Posts: 26351
- Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2008 9:29 am
- Location: Illinois
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
I see answers saying "obviously" and "of course", when giving opinions predicting events over a long period of time or far in the future. I worry that new members will believe that there is real certainty involved, or that there is a single right answer.bogledogle87 wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2019 3:08 pm Fair questions, but to play devil's advocate for a minute...... There are plenty of new people on the forum every day seeking to learn - as evident by the recurring questions. Clearly these folks weren't part of last week's discussion and the responses are all new information to them.
Counter-Question: In light of what you stated above about refocusing energy, What keeps you personally coming back to read and respond to the same topics over and over? I am genuinely curious.
In my opinion there is usually a broad range of what is reasonable in asset allocation.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein |
Wiki article link: Bogleheads® investment philosophy
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
The correct course of action can be obvious even when the future is uncertain.ruralavalon wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2019 3:56 pmI see answers saying "obviously" and "of course", when giving opinions predicting events over a long period of time or far in the future. I worry that new members will believe that there is real certainty involved, or that there is a single right answer.bogledogle87 wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2019 3:08 pm Fair questions, but to play devil's advocate for a minute...... There are plenty of new people on the forum every day seeking to learn - as evident by the recurring questions. Clearly these folks weren't part of last week's discussion and the responses are all new information to them.
Counter-Question: In light of what you stated above about refocusing energy, What keeps you personally coming back to read and respond to the same topics over and over? I am genuinely curious.
In my opinion there is usually a broad range of what is reasonable in asset allocation.
"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves." ~~ Peter Lynch
-
- Posts: 1660
- Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2011 8:22 pm
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
What else are we supposed to do with our free time?Prahasaurus wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2019 2:53 pm Why does this topic resurface 3-4 times per week with new threads? Why the fixation on international stock allocation? It seems we are having the same conversation over and over and over again. Yes, I prefer VTWAX. Yes, I have my reasons. But whatever, we don't need to have this conversation continuously. We are even reposting the same charts... Sure, they are interesting, but they were also quite interesting last week...
With a 35 year horizon, the most important thing is to add money to your equity fund regularly. That will make the biggest difference. If you are agonizing over VTSAX versus VTWAX and your time horizon is 35 years, that anguish should better be spent on figuring out how to earn more and/or save more so you can regularly invest for the next 35 years. That's where your energy should be focused.
Go outside and enjoy nature? Spend time with family and friends? Explore a new hobby? Volunteer? Play a sport? Learn to code? Plant a garden? Learn a new recipe? Read a new book?
No, no, I don't think there is any better way to spend our free time.
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
+100. I don't invest in VTWAX because I am sure the current global weighting is the best weighting for future returns. In fact, I am almost positive it is not and that the global market cap will change. If I knew how it would change, obviously I would weight towards the winners. Unfortunately, I do not have a crystal ball like some people on this forum and I am unable to predict how thousands of companies across the world will perform decades into the future.vineviz wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2019 4:05 pmThe correct course of action can be obvious even when the future is uncertain.ruralavalon wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2019 3:56 pmI see answers saying "obviously" and "of course", when giving opinions predicting events over a long period of time or far in the future. I worry that new members will believe that there is real certainty involved, or that there is a single right answer.bogledogle87 wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2019 3:08 pm Fair questions, but to play devil's advocate for a minute...... There are plenty of new people on the forum every day seeking to learn - as evident by the recurring questions. Clearly these folks weren't part of last week's discussion and the responses are all new information to them.
Counter-Question: In light of what you stated above about refocusing energy, What keeps you personally coming back to read and respond to the same topics over and over? I am genuinely curious.
In my opinion there is usually a broad range of what is reasonable in asset allocation.
There is a right answer though. But, for some reason, many otherwise rational bogleheads throw all logic and principle out the window when it comes to this answer, trying to justify their bias in all sorts of perverse ways. It's a real tragedy that newcomers, and especially young people, may end up listening to irrational advice that can get widely spread in these forms (even by rather prominent members).ruralavalon wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2019 2:53 pm We debate this so often because there is no clear right answer. Which also means that there is no clear wrong answer.
- ruralavalon
- Posts: 26351
- Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2008 9:29 am
- Location: Illinois
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
I am outside enjoying nature right now, on our back deck in the shade. No rain, sunny, clear blue sky, 87 degrees, nice breeze. Will read a book next.Silence Dogood wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2019 4:16 pmWhat else are we supposed to do with our free time?Prahasaurus wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2019 2:53 pm Why does this topic resurface 3-4 times per week with new threads? Why the fixation on international stock allocation? It seems we are having the same conversation over and over and over again. Yes, I prefer VTWAX. Yes, I have my reasons. But whatever, we don't need to have this conversation continuously. We are even reposting the same charts... Sure, they are interesting, but they were also quite interesting last week...
With a 35 year horizon, the most important thing is to add money to your equity fund regularly. That will make the biggest difference. If you are agonizing over VTSAX versus VTWAX and your time horizon is 35 years, that anguish should better be spent on figuring out how to earn more and/or save more so you can regularly invest for the next 35 years. That's where your energy should be focused.
Go outside and enjoy nature? Spend time with family and friends? Explore a new hobby? Volunteer? Play a sport? Learn to code? Plant a garden? Learn a new recipe? Read a new book?
No, no, I don't think there is any better way to spend our free time.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein |
Wiki article link: Bogleheads® investment philosophy
- UpsetRaptor
- Posts: 1068
- Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2016 4:15 pm
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
VTSAX! US has outperformed all-world for a good century or two now.
The Credit Suisse image is often posted here as a reason not to VTSAX, which I don't understand because it actually shows a century+ of US outperformance, and that's even despite not including a few more US outperformance years on the tail.
The Credit Suisse image is often posted here as a reason not to VTSAX, which I don't understand because it actually shows a century+ of US outperformance, and that's even despite not including a few more US outperformance years on the tail.
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
Can someone explain this to me? Diversification can lead to diminishing returns?FIREchief wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2019 3:40 pmI would say it keeps coming up because it is an important question for most/all on the forum and a worthwhile discussion. Back when I spent all of my time working and raising a family, I just plowed every retirement dollar into the S&P 500 and didn't think twice about it. Later, after I FIREd, I dabbled a bit with some foreign indexes, but ultimately decided to just stick with 100% US. It's simple and has always worked. I certainly respect those who choose to own the WHOLE haystack, but I also believe that diversification is not an end to itself. At a certain point it has served it's purpose and becomes subject to diminishing returns. I also believe that the U.S. is the most stable economy on earth and that U.S. companies will continue to dominate the global economy. I may be wrong, but that's why I use an LMP/RP strategy. Even if corporations fail, I believe that the U.S. Treasury will stand behind its commitments.Prahasaurus wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2019 2:53 pm Why does this topic resurface 3-4 times per week with new threads? Why the fixation on international stock allocation? It seems we are having the same conversation over and over and over again. Y
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
For two centuries?UpsetRaptor wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2019 4:52 pm VTSAX! US has outperformed all-world for a good century or two now.
The Credit Suisse image is often posted here as a reason not to VTSAX, which I don't understand because it actually shows a century+ of US outperformance, and that's even despite not including a few more US outperformance years on the tail.
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
I suspect it was primarily a rationalization, not an actual appraisal of the mathematics of diversification.
Nonetheless, there is an element of truth to the extent that there are a finite number of investable, independent sources of risk with positive expected real return.
Once a portfolio is diversified across stocks, bonds, and commodities and then across the 2-5 risk factors in each asset class it becomes difficult to further diversify a portfolio without reducing expected return.
"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves." ~~ Peter Lynch
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
I'll assume you're joking. Obviously, the intended meaning was that further diversification beyond a certain point provides little or no added value.lostdog wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2019 4:53 pmCan someone explain this to me? Diversification can lead to diminishing returns?FIREchief wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2019 3:40 pmI would say it keeps coming up because it is an important question for most/all on the forum and a worthwhile discussion. Back when I spent all of my time working and raising a family, I just plowed every retirement dollar into the S&P 500 and didn't think twice about it. Later, after I FIREd, I dabbled a bit with some foreign indexes, but ultimately decided to just stick with 100% US. It's simple and has always worked. I certainly respect those who choose to own the WHOLE haystack, but I also believe that diversification is not an end to itself. At a certain point it has served it's purpose and becomes subject to diminishing returns. I also believe that the U.S. is the most stable economy on earth and that U.S. companies will continue to dominate the global economy. I may be wrong, but that's why I use an LMP/RP strategy. Even if corporations fail, I believe that the U.S. Treasury will stand behind its commitments.Prahasaurus wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2019 2:53 pm Why does this topic resurface 3-4 times per week with new threads? Why the fixation on international stock allocation? It seems we are having the same conversation over and over and over again. Y
I am not a lawyer, accountant or financial advisor. Any advice or suggestions that I may provide shall be considered for entertainment purposes only.
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
Jack Bogle's old-fashioned advice about international investing:Taylor Larimore wrote: ↑Wed May 15, 2019 8:51 pmthefirst100k:thefirst100k wrote: ↑Wed May 15, 2019 8:33 pm Just a reminder that Jack Bogle did not see the point of investing in international stocks. But then again he was from another era.
Jack Bogle wrote the Forward in my latest book, The Bogleheads' Guide To The Three-Fund Portfolio. This is a portion of what he wrote:
Sometimes old advice is the best advice.In my first book, Bogle on Mutual Funds, published in 1994, I wrote that a long-term investor need not allocate any of his or her assets to non-U.S. stocks. -- Since 1994, as it was to happen, the U.S. S&P 500 Index was to rise by 743%, while the EAFE Index of not-U.S. stocks rose by 237%.
Best wishes.
Taylor
Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks
Here's Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Like Investing In Foreign Markets
Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle on Mutual Funds, Common Sense Investing and the Stock Market
Jack Bogle on Market Index Funds (2014)
Bogle: Why I Don't Invest Overseas
Why Bogle Doesn't 'Do' International Investing
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
Thank you.vineviz wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2019 5:15 pmI suspect it was primarily a rationalization, not an actual appraisal of the mathematics of diversification.
Nonetheless, there is an element of truth to the extent that there are a finite number of investable, independent sources of risk with positive expected real return.
Once a portfolio is diversified across stocks, bonds, and commodities and then across the 2-5 risk factors in each asset class it becomes difficult to further diversify a portfolio without reducing expected return.
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
FIREchief wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2019 5:15 pmI'll assume you're joking. Obviously, the intended meaning was that further diversification beyond a certain point provides little or no added value.lostdog wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2019 4:53 pmCan someone explain this to me? Diversification can lead to diminishing returns?FIREchief wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2019 3:40 pmI would say it keeps coming up because it is an important question for most/all on the forum and a worthwhile discussion. Back when I spent all of my time working and raising a family, I just plowed every retirement dollar into the S&P 500 and didn't think twice about it. Later, after I FIREd, I dabbled a bit with some foreign indexes, but ultimately decided to just stick with 100% US. It's simple and has always worked. I certainly respect those who choose to own the WHOLE haystack, but I also believe that diversification is not an end to itself. At a certain point it has served it's purpose and becomes subject to diminishing returns. I also believe that the U.S. is the most stable economy on earth and that U.S. companies will continue to dominate the global economy. I may be wrong, but that's why I use an LMP/RP strategy. Even if corporations fail, I believe that the U.S. Treasury will stand behind its commitments.Prahasaurus wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2019 2:53 pm Why does this topic resurface 3-4 times per week with new threads? Why the fixation on international stock allocation? It seems we are having the same conversation over and over and over again. Y
Thanks firechief.
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
This is Vanguard's modern day advice.oldzey wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2019 5:18 pmJack Bogle's old-fashioned advice about international investing:Taylor Larimore wrote: ↑Wed May 15, 2019 8:51 pmthefirst100k:thefirst100k wrote: ↑Wed May 15, 2019 8:33 pm Just a reminder that Jack Bogle did not see the point of investing in international stocks. But then again he was from another era.
Jack Bogle wrote the Forward in my latest book, The Bogleheads' Guide To The Three-Fund Portfolio. This is a portion of what he wrote:
Sometimes old advice is the best advice.In my first book, Bogle on Mutual Funds, published in 1994, I wrote that a long-term investor need not allocate any of his or her assets to non-U.S. stocks. -- Since 1994, as it was to happen, the U.S. S&P 500 Index was to rise by 743%, while the EAFE Index of not-U.S. stocks rose by 237%.
Best wishes.
Taylor
Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks
Here's Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Like Investing In Foreign Markets
Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle on Mutual Funds, Common Sense Investing and the Stock Market
Jack Bogle on Market Index Funds (2014)
Bogle: Why I Don't Invest Overseas
Why Bogle Doesn't 'Do' International Investing
https://investor.vanguard.com/investing ... -investing
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
What is the portion of each? I'm wondering if I should switch all of our splits into one?? But international has been such a drag...
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
reminds of a quote I once red from someone who knows a little about investing:lostdog wrote: ↑Wed May 15, 2019 11:11 am VTWAX. It has 8032 stocks vs 3500 (VTSAX).
Don't be swayed by american exceptionalism, politics, past performance, ideologies, american nationalism, make believe crystal balls that can see into the future and many more weak arguments... Don't fall into this trap touted by some on this forum. Good luck with your choice.
"For 240 years it's been a terrible mistake to bet against America, and now is no time to start."
-
- Posts: 69
- Joined: Fri May 18, 2018 1:34 pm
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
I was considering investing in vtwax however I can’t stomach investing a penny in China. Seems morally wrong to me. I’d rather take a slight loss and invest in US and developed markets with some money in an India etf. Obviously, everyone is in a different camp in this regard
-
- Posts: 69
- Joined: Fri May 18, 2018 1:34 pm
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
I was considering investing in vtwax however I can’t stomach investing a penny in China. Seems morally wrong to me. I’d rather take a slight loss and invest in US and developed markets with some money in an India etf. Obviously, everyone is in a different camp in this regard
- Taylor Larimore
- Posts: 32842
- Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 7:09 pm
- Location: Miami FL
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
Oaakwood42:Oakwood42 wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2019 6:06 pmreminds of a quote I once red from someone who knows a little about investing:lostdog wrote: ↑Wed May 15, 2019 11:11 am VTWAX. It has 8032 stocks vs 3500 (VTSAX).
Don't be swayed by american exceptionalism, politics, past performance, ideologies, american nationalism, make believe crystal balls that can see into the future and many more weak arguments... Don't fall into this trap touted by some on this forum. Good luck with your choice.
"For 240 years it's been a terrible mistake to bet against America, and now is no time to start."
Thank you for this quote from Warren Buffett in his 2016 Letter to Shareholders.
So far, he has been right.
Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
I think this topic is discussed way more than it really deserves to be IMO. If you choose VTSAX - you will probably be fine. The risk is that your returns do not appreciate as fast as other regions of the world. If you choose VTWAX, even if the US outperforms - VTWAX will follow it. After all, it is a *company* not country weighted index and the top companies in the world dominate the index. Right now most are from the US. That can change or it may not. Either way, you have a superb funds capturing great returns...
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
I think I'll call it quits replying to threads about international investing allocations. Good luck.Taylor Larimore wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2019 7:29 pmOaakwood42:Oakwood42 wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2019 6:06 pmreminds of a quote I once red from someone who knows a little about investing:lostdog wrote: ↑Wed May 15, 2019 11:11 am VTWAX. It has 8032 stocks vs 3500 (VTSAX).
Don't be swayed by american exceptionalism, politics, past performance, ideologies, american nationalism, make believe crystal balls that can see into the future and many more weak arguments... Don't fall into this trap touted by some on this forum. Good luck with your choice.
"For 240 years it's been a terrible mistake to bet against America, and now is no time to start."
Thank you for this quote from Warren Buffett in his 2016 Letter to Shareholders.
So far, he has been right.
Best wishes.
Taylor
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
-
- Posts: 10433
- Joined: Mon May 18, 2009 5:57 pm
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
Split the difference and do 50/50.
-
- Posts: 478
- Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2018 7:03 pm
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
Deleted
Last edited by bogledogle87 on Fri May 17, 2019 6:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
VTWAX and chill
-
- Posts: 10433
- Joined: Mon May 18, 2009 5:57 pm
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
Allocating some money to non U.S. equities is not a bet against America. It is a hedge for it.Oakwood42 wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2019 6:06 pmreminds of a quote I once red from someone who knows a little about investing:lostdog wrote: ↑Wed May 15, 2019 11:11 am VTWAX. It has 8032 stocks vs 3500 (VTSAX).
Don't be swayed by american exceptionalism, politics, past performance, ideologies, american nationalism, make believe crystal balls that can see into the future and many more weak arguments... Don't fall into this trap touted by some on this forum. Good luck with your choice.
"For 240 years it's been a terrible mistake to bet against America, and now is no time to start."
-
- Posts: 69
- Joined: Fri May 18, 2018 1:34 pm
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
Don’t stop lostdog. You were one of the few who got me to ask more questions and divert some of my investments to a more global portfolio.
-
- Posts: 1097
- Joined: Sun Oct 22, 2017 11:30 pm
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
There are some EM ex china etfs (EMXC, EGAI) now if that is the only country you want to avoid. They have low AUM now but they may grow eventually.Robert_007 wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2019 7:28 pm I was considering investing in vtwax however I can’t stomach investing a penny in China. Seems morally wrong to me. I’d rather take a slight loss and invest in US and developed markets with some money in an India etf. Obviously, everyone is in a different camp in this regard
-
- Posts: 69
- Joined: Fri May 18, 2018 1:34 pm
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
Thanks I’ll look into it
-
- Posts: 9475
- Joined: Sun Oct 08, 2017 7:16 pm
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
Agree. These threads are insightful and serve as a good reminder about international investing. Doesn't matter if some of the same information is repeated; that's because it's important. But there's always a nugget or two I pull from each thread that helps cement my views.Robert_007 wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2019 8:25 pm Don’t stop lostdog. You were one of the few who got me to ask more questions and divert some of my investments to a more global portfolio.
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
Why is this US vs ex-US thing a big issue for US-domiciled investors only? Investors domiciled outside the US are usually far more eager to go 100% world market cap.
To my understanding, here the only meaningful difference between a US-domiciled investor and an investor domiciled outside the US is a different currency risk. I don't believe a different currency risk is a logical reason to go 100% US or some other disproportionate overweight.
Last edited by s8r on Fri May 17, 2019 6:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
Or just look out the windowTropikThunder wrote: ↑Wed May 15, 2019 11:27 amSee: Rome, Empire, Fall of.Trader Joe wrote: ↑Wed May 15, 2019 11:17 amThis is an easy question to answer. Either VTSAX (Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares) or VFIAX (Vanguard 500 Index Fund Admiral Shares).
If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything. ~Ronald Coase
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
Nestle
Alibaba
Samsung
Toyota
Royal Dutch Shell
Roche
and many other good companies in the index from around the world that are NOT in VTSAX.
Alibaba
Samsung
Toyota
Royal Dutch Shell
Roche
and many other good companies in the index from around the world that are NOT in VTSAX.
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
This.SimpleGift wrote: ↑Sun Apr 28, 2019 12:10 pm If there's one country on the planet where investors don't need to worry too much about home country bias, it's the United States (chart below). For investors from other countries, this is a much more critical concern.
That said, we do allocate about 35% of equities to international stocks, with tilts to small-caps and emerging markets.
Note: As of second quarter 2017. Source: Heritage
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman
-
- Posts: 349
- Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 1:32 pm
- UpsetRaptor
- Posts: 1068
- Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2016 4:15 pm
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
Absolutely. 200 years ago the US was not even a top 10 economy. Even in the late 19th century, it was still behind Britain.lostdog wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2019 4:54 pmFor two centuries?UpsetRaptor wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2019 4:52 pm VTSAX! US has outperformed all-world for a good century or two now.
The Credit Suisse image is often posted here as a reason not to VTSAX, which I don't understand because it actually shows a century+ of US outperformance, and that's even despite not including a few more US outperformance years on the tail.
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
If we're looking for best performing country, why not go 100% Australia? It's been the winner since 1900: https://www.credit-suisse.com/media/ass ... k-2019.pdf
If you're going to invest in only one country why settle for for 2nd best (US) over the last century when you can invest in the best?
If you're going to invest in only one country why settle for for 2nd best (US) over the last century when you can invest in the best?
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
Because in the eyes of some on this board, anything outside of the U.S. is a desolate and corrupt wasteland.asif408 wrote: ↑Fri May 17, 2019 12:52 pm If we're looking for best performing country, why not go 100% Australia? It's been the winner since 1900: https://www.credit-suisse.com/media/ass ... k-2019.pdf
If you're going to invest in only one country why settle for for 2nd best (US) over the last century when you can invest in the best?
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
-
- Posts: 3338
- Joined: Thu May 19, 2016 5:04 pm
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
WAX all the way. It will be two fund rather than three fund. One Wax one BND. We will see more emerging market to take more % of the global share. One WAX take them all.
- ruralavalon
- Posts: 26351
- Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2008 9:29 am
- Location: Illinois
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
You can exaggerate .lostdog wrote: ↑Fri May 17, 2019 1:21 pmBecause in the eyes of some on this board, anything outside of the U.S. is a desolate and corrupt wasteland.asif408 wrote: ↑Fri May 17, 2019 12:52 pm If we're looking for best performing country, why not go 100% Australia? It's been the winner since 1900: https://www.credit-suisse.com/media/ass ... k-2019.pdf
If you're going to invest in only one country why settle for for 2nd best (US) over the last century when you can invest in the best?
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein |
Wiki article link: Bogleheads® investment philosophy
-
- Posts: 349
- Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 1:32 pm
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
deleted
Last edited by Coltrane75 on Fri May 17, 2019 5:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
Because lostdog attacks those with proUS investment views as idiots who are forsaking their duty to the younger generation of investors.Prahasaurus wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2019 2:53 pm Why does this topic resurface 3-4 times per week with new threads? Why the fixation on international stock allocation? It seems we are having the same conversation over and over and over again. Yes, I prefer VTWAX. Yes, I have my reasons. But whatever, we don't need to have this conversation continuously. We are even reposting the same charts... Sure, they are interesting, but they were also quite interesting last week...
With a 35 year horizon, the most important thing is to add money to your equity fund regularly. That will make the biggest difference. If you are agonizing over VTSAX versus VTWAX and your time horizon is 35 years, that anguish should better be spent on figuring out how to earn more and/or save more so you can regularly invest for the next 35 years. That's where your energy should be focused.
even going after Taylor Larimore above, and deriding Bogle's advice as outdated
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
I don't think it's a fair assessment to say lostdog "went after" Taylor. It's perfectly acceptable to disagree with someone's investment views or perspectives. There's nothing wrong with claiming Bogle's advice is outdated. It's an opinion and opinions are what fuel this board, especially when talking about anything in the future.
Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
If you're a U.S. investor, invested in a S&P 500 or Total Market U.S.index fund, half of your revenues already come from outside the U.S.
So, you have an international fund, minus the risks (e.g. currency, sovereign, stability) and fees associated with investing in international funds.
Works for me!
So, you have an international fund, minus the risks (e.g. currency, sovereign, stability) and fees associated with investing in international funds.
Works for me!
JoMoney wrote: ↑Fri Mar 30, 2018 8:07 pm MarketWatch(2015): S&P 500 companies generate barely over half their revenue at home
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman