VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

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Grt2bOutdoors
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by Grt2bOutdoors »

Vtsax
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Prahasaurus
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by Prahasaurus »

Why does this topic resurface 3-4 times per week with new threads? Why the fixation on international stock allocation? It seems we are having the same conversation over and over and over again. Yes, I prefer VTWAX. Yes, I have my reasons. But whatever, we don't need to have this conversation continuously. We are even reposting the same charts... Sure, they are interesting, but they were also quite interesting last week... :)

With a 35 year horizon, the most important thing is to add money to your equity fund regularly. That will make the biggest difference. If you are agonizing over VTSAX versus VTWAX and your time horizon is 35 years, that anguish should better be spent on figuring out how to earn more and/or save more so you can regularly invest for the next 35 years. That's where your energy should be focused.
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by ruralavalon »

RJC wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 2:33 pm . . . . .
I believe we continue to dispute international allocation because there really isn't a big difference. Some of the language here is quite harsh for those sticking with a mostly US portfolio. It's the amount we save and bond allocation that will have more impact in the long run IMO.
+ 1.

We debate this so often because there is no clear right answer. Which also means that there is no clear wrong answer.
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by bogledogle87 »

Prahasaurus wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 2:53 pm Why does this topic resurface 3-4 times per week with new threads? Why the fixation on international stock allocation? It seems we are having the same conversation over and over and over again. Yes, I prefer VTWAX. Yes, I have my reasons. But whatever, we don't need to have this conversation continuously. We are even reposting the same charts... Sure, they are interesting, but they were also quite interesting last week... :)

With a 35 year horizon, the most important thing is to add money to your equity fund regularly. That will make the biggest difference. If you are agonizing over VTSAX versus VTWAX and your time horizon is 35 years, that anguish should better be spent on figuring out how to earn more and/or save more so you can regularly invest for the next 35 years. That's where your energy should be focused.
Fair questions, but to play devil's advocate for a minute...... There are plenty of new people on the forum every day seeking to learn - as evident by the recurring questions. Clearly these folks weren't part of last week's discussion and the responses are all new information to them.

Counter-Question: In light of what you stated above about refocusing energy, What keeps you personally coming back to read and respond to the same topics over and over? I am genuinely curious.
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by Prahasaurus »

bogledogle87 wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 3:08 pm
Prahasaurus wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 2:53 pm Why does this topic resurface 3-4 times per week with new threads? Why the fixation on international stock allocation? It seems we are having the same conversation over and over and over again. Yes, I prefer VTWAX. Yes, I have my reasons. But whatever, we don't need to have this conversation continuously. We are even reposting the same charts... Sure, they are interesting, but they were also quite interesting last week... :)

With a 35 year horizon, the most important thing is to add money to your equity fund regularly. That will make the biggest difference. If you are agonizing over VTSAX versus VTWAX and your time horizon is 35 years, that anguish should better be spent on figuring out how to earn more and/or save more so you can regularly invest for the next 35 years. That's where your energy should be focused.
Fair questions, but to play devil's advocate for a minute...... There are plenty of new people on the forum every day seeking to learn - as evident by the recurring questions. Clearly these folks weren't part of last week's discussion and the responses are all new information to them.

Counter-Question: In light of what you stated above about refocusing energy, What keeps you personally coming back to read and respond to the same topics over and over? I am genuinely curious.
1 - Yes, there are new people daily. But this topic is being rehashed daily. Maybe a mod can combine into one mega thread? Similar to the "The market is tanking" thread that has been running for years...

2 - I've gone from responding on why I chose VTWAX to responding that we need to create one monster thread and not keep rehashing the same arguments over and over again... This is probably my last comment on this topic. More a cry for help...
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by FIREchief »

Prahasaurus wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 2:53 pm Why does this topic resurface 3-4 times per week with new threads? Why the fixation on international stock allocation? It seems we are having the same conversation over and over and over again. Y
I would say it keeps coming up because it is an important question for most/all on the forum and a worthwhile discussion. Back when I spent all of my time working and raising a family, I just plowed every retirement dollar into the S&P 500 and didn't think twice about it. Later, after I FIREd, I dabbled a bit with some foreign indexes, but ultimately decided to just stick with 100% US. It's simple and has always worked. I certainly respect those who choose to own the WHOLE haystack, but I also believe that diversification is not an end to itself. At a certain point it has served it's purpose and becomes subject to diminishing returns. I also believe that the U.S. is the most stable economy on earth and that U.S. companies will continue to dominate the global economy. I may be wrong, but that's why I use an LMP/RP strategy. Even if corporations fail, I believe that the U.S. Treasury will stand behind its commitments.
I am not a lawyer, accountant or financial advisor. Any advice or suggestions that I may provide shall be considered for entertainment purposes only.
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by RJC »

There needs to be a "Final, Definitive Thread on International Asset Allocation".

Just like these:

DCA vs Lump Sum: viewtopic.php?t=132098

Rebalancing: viewtopic.php?t=149161

Value investing: viewtopic.php?t=96441

Anyone? @stlutz?
Last edited by RJC on Thu May 16, 2019 4:01 pm, edited 5 times in total.
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by ruralavalon »

bogledogle87 wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 3:08 pm Fair questions, but to play devil's advocate for a minute...... There are plenty of new people on the forum every day seeking to learn - as evident by the recurring questions. Clearly these folks weren't part of last week's discussion and the responses are all new information to them.

Counter-Question: In light of what you stated above about refocusing energy, What keeps you personally coming back to read and respond to the same topics over and over? I am genuinely curious.
I see answers saying "obviously" and "of course", when giving opinions predicting events over a long period of time or far in the future. I worry that new members will believe that there is real certainty involved, or that there is a single right answer.

In my opinion there is usually a broad range of what is reasonable in asset allocation.
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by vineviz »

ruralavalon wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 3:56 pm
bogledogle87 wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 3:08 pm Fair questions, but to play devil's advocate for a minute...... There are plenty of new people on the forum every day seeking to learn - as evident by the recurring questions. Clearly these folks weren't part of last week's discussion and the responses are all new information to them.

Counter-Question: In light of what you stated above about refocusing energy, What keeps you personally coming back to read and respond to the same topics over and over? I am genuinely curious.
I see answers saying "obviously" and "of course", when giving opinions predicting events over a long period of time or far in the future. I worry that new members will believe that there is real certainty involved, or that there is a single right answer.

In my opinion there is usually a broad range of what is reasonable in asset allocation.
The correct course of action can be obvious even when the future is uncertain.
"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves." ~~ Peter Lynch
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by Silence Dogood »

Prahasaurus wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 2:53 pm Why does this topic resurface 3-4 times per week with new threads? Why the fixation on international stock allocation? It seems we are having the same conversation over and over and over again. Yes, I prefer VTWAX. Yes, I have my reasons. But whatever, we don't need to have this conversation continuously. We are even reposting the same charts... Sure, they are interesting, but they were also quite interesting last week... :)

With a 35 year horizon, the most important thing is to add money to your equity fund regularly. That will make the biggest difference. If you are agonizing over VTSAX versus VTWAX and your time horizon is 35 years, that anguish should better be spent on figuring out how to earn more and/or save more so you can regularly invest for the next 35 years. That's where your energy should be focused.
What else are we supposed to do with our free time?

Go outside and enjoy nature? Spend time with family and friends? Explore a new hobby? Volunteer? Play a sport? Learn to code? Plant a garden? Learn a new recipe? Read a new book?

No, no, I don't think there is any better way to spend our free time. :wink:
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by jibantik »

vineviz wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 4:05 pm
ruralavalon wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 3:56 pm
bogledogle87 wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 3:08 pm Fair questions, but to play devil's advocate for a minute...... There are plenty of new people on the forum every day seeking to learn - as evident by the recurring questions. Clearly these folks weren't part of last week's discussion and the responses are all new information to them.

Counter-Question: In light of what you stated above about refocusing energy, What keeps you personally coming back to read and respond to the same topics over and over? I am genuinely curious.
I see answers saying "obviously" and "of course", when giving opinions predicting events over a long period of time or far in the future. I worry that new members will believe that there is real certainty involved, or that there is a single right answer.

In my opinion there is usually a broad range of what is reasonable in asset allocation.
The correct course of action can be obvious even when the future is uncertain.
+100. I don't invest in VTWAX because I am sure the current global weighting is the best weighting for future returns. In fact, I am almost positive it is not and that the global market cap will change. If I knew how it would change, obviously I would weight towards the winners. Unfortunately, I do not have a crystal ball like some people on this forum and I am unable to predict how thousands of companies across the world will perform decades into the future.
ruralavalon wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 2:53 pm We debate this so often because there is no clear right answer. Which also means that there is no clear wrong answer.
There is a right answer though. But, for some reason, many otherwise rational bogleheads throw all logic and principle out the window when it comes to this answer, trying to justify their bias in all sorts of perverse ways. It's a real tragedy that newcomers, and especially young people, may end up listening to irrational advice that can get widely spread in these forms (even by rather prominent members).
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by ruralavalon »

Silence Dogood wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 4:16 pm
Prahasaurus wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 2:53 pm Why does this topic resurface 3-4 times per week with new threads? Why the fixation on international stock allocation? It seems we are having the same conversation over and over and over again. Yes, I prefer VTWAX. Yes, I have my reasons. But whatever, we don't need to have this conversation continuously. We are even reposting the same charts... Sure, they are interesting, but they were also quite interesting last week... :)

With a 35 year horizon, the most important thing is to add money to your equity fund regularly. That will make the biggest difference. If you are agonizing over VTSAX versus VTWAX and your time horizon is 35 years, that anguish should better be spent on figuring out how to earn more and/or save more so you can regularly invest for the next 35 years. That's where your energy should be focused.
What else are we supposed to do with our free time?

Go outside and enjoy nature? Spend time with family and friends? Explore a new hobby? Volunteer? Play a sport? Learn to code? Plant a garden? Learn a new recipe? Read a new book?

No, no, I don't think there is any better way to spend our free time. :wink:
I am outside enjoying nature right now, on our back deck in the shade. No rain, sunny, clear blue sky, 87 degrees, nice breeze. Will read a book next.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link: Bogleheads® investment philosophy
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by UpsetRaptor »

VTSAX! US has outperformed all-world for a good century or two now.

The Credit Suisse image is often posted here as a reason not to VTSAX, which I don't understand because it actually shows a century+ of US outperformance, and that's even despite not including a few more US outperformance years on the tail.
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by lostdog »

FIREchief wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 3:40 pm
Prahasaurus wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 2:53 pm Why does this topic resurface 3-4 times per week with new threads? Why the fixation on international stock allocation? It seems we are having the same conversation over and over and over again. Y
I would say it keeps coming up because it is an important question for most/all on the forum and a worthwhile discussion. Back when I spent all of my time working and raising a family, I just plowed every retirement dollar into the S&P 500 and didn't think twice about it. Later, after I FIREd, I dabbled a bit with some foreign indexes, but ultimately decided to just stick with 100% US. It's simple and has always worked. I certainly respect those who choose to own the WHOLE haystack, but I also believe that diversification is not an end to itself. At a certain point it has served it's purpose and becomes subject to diminishing returns. I also believe that the U.S. is the most stable economy on earth and that U.S. companies will continue to dominate the global economy. I may be wrong, but that's why I use an LMP/RP strategy. Even if corporations fail, I believe that the U.S. Treasury will stand behind its commitments.
Can someone explain this to me? Diversification can lead to diminishing returns?
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by lostdog »

UpsetRaptor wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 4:52 pm VTSAX! US has outperformed all-world for a good century or two now.

The Credit Suisse image is often posted here as a reason not to VTSAX, which I don't understand because it actually shows a century+ of US outperformance, and that's even despite not including a few more US outperformance years on the tail.
For two centuries?
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by vineviz »

lostdog wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 4:53 pm Can someone explain this to me? Diversification can lead to diminishing returns?
I suspect it was primarily a rationalization, not an actual appraisal of the mathematics of diversification.

Nonetheless, there is an element of truth to the extent that there are a finite number of investable, independent sources of risk with positive expected real return.

Once a portfolio is diversified across stocks, bonds, and commodities and then across the 2-5 risk factors in each asset class it becomes difficult to further diversify a portfolio without reducing expected return.
"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves." ~~ Peter Lynch
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by FIREchief »

lostdog wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 4:53 pm
FIREchief wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 3:40 pm
Prahasaurus wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 2:53 pm Why does this topic resurface 3-4 times per week with new threads? Why the fixation on international stock allocation? It seems we are having the same conversation over and over and over again. Y
I would say it keeps coming up because it is an important question for most/all on the forum and a worthwhile discussion. Back when I spent all of my time working and raising a family, I just plowed every retirement dollar into the S&P 500 and didn't think twice about it. Later, after I FIREd, I dabbled a bit with some foreign indexes, but ultimately decided to just stick with 100% US. It's simple and has always worked. I certainly respect those who choose to own the WHOLE haystack, but I also believe that diversification is not an end to itself. At a certain point it has served it's purpose and becomes subject to diminishing returns. I also believe that the U.S. is the most stable economy on earth and that U.S. companies will continue to dominate the global economy. I may be wrong, but that's why I use an LMP/RP strategy. Even if corporations fail, I believe that the U.S. Treasury will stand behind its commitments.
Can someone explain this to me? Diversification can lead to diminishing returns?
I'll assume you're joking. Obviously, the intended meaning was that further diversification beyond a certain point provides little or no added value.
I am not a lawyer, accountant or financial advisor. Any advice or suggestions that I may provide shall be considered for entertainment purposes only.
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by oldzey »

Taylor Larimore wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 8:51 pm
thefirst100k wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 8:33 pm Just a reminder that Jack Bogle did not see the point of investing in international stocks. But then again he was from another era.
thefirst100k:

Jack Bogle wrote the Forward in my latest book, The Bogleheads' Guide To The Three-Fund Portfolio. This is a portion of what he wrote:
In my first book, Bogle on Mutual Funds, published in 1994, I wrote that a long-term investor need not allocate any of his or her assets to non-U.S. stocks. -- Since 1994, as it was to happen, the U.S. S&P 500 Index was to rise by 743%, while the EAFE Index of not-U.S. stocks rose by 237%.
Sometimes old advice is the best advice. :wink:

Best wishes.
Taylor
Jack Bogle's old-fashioned advice about international investing:

Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks

Here's Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Like Investing In Foreign Markets

Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle on Mutual Funds, Common Sense Investing and the Stock Market

Jack Bogle on Market Index Funds (2014)

Bogle: Why I Don't Invest Overseas

Why Bogle Doesn't 'Do' International Investing

:wink:
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by lostdog »

vineviz wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 5:15 pm
lostdog wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 4:53 pm Can someone explain this to me? Diversification can lead to diminishing returns?
I suspect it was primarily a rationalization, not an actual appraisal of the mathematics of diversification.

Nonetheless, there is an element of truth to the extent that there are a finite number of investable, independent sources of risk with positive expected real return.

Once a portfolio is diversified across stocks, bonds, and commodities and then across the 2-5 risk factors in each asset class it becomes difficult to further diversify a portfolio without reducing expected return.
Thank you.
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by lostdog »

FIREchief wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 5:15 pm
lostdog wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 4:53 pm
FIREchief wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 3:40 pm
Prahasaurus wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 2:53 pm Why does this topic resurface 3-4 times per week with new threads? Why the fixation on international stock allocation? It seems we are having the same conversation over and over and over again. Y
I would say it keeps coming up because it is an important question for most/all on the forum and a worthwhile discussion. Back when I spent all of my time working and raising a family, I just plowed every retirement dollar into the S&P 500 and didn't think twice about it. Later, after I FIREd, I dabbled a bit with some foreign indexes, but ultimately decided to just stick with 100% US. It's simple and has always worked. I certainly respect those who choose to own the WHOLE haystack, but I also believe that diversification is not an end to itself. At a certain point it has served it's purpose and becomes subject to diminishing returns. I also believe that the U.S. is the most stable economy on earth and that U.S. companies will continue to dominate the global economy. I may be wrong, but that's why I use an LMP/RP strategy. Even if corporations fail, I believe that the U.S. Treasury will stand behind its commitments.
Can someone explain this to me? Diversification can lead to diminishing returns?
I'll assume you're joking. Obviously, the intended meaning was that further diversification beyond a certain point provides little or no added value.

Thanks firechief. :)
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lostdog
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by lostdog »

oldzey wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 5:18 pm
Taylor Larimore wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 8:51 pm
thefirst100k wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 8:33 pm Just a reminder that Jack Bogle did not see the point of investing in international stocks. But then again he was from another era.
thefirst100k:

Jack Bogle wrote the Forward in my latest book, The Bogleheads' Guide To The Three-Fund Portfolio. This is a portion of what he wrote:
In my first book, Bogle on Mutual Funds, published in 1994, I wrote that a long-term investor need not allocate any of his or her assets to non-U.S. stocks. -- Since 1994, as it was to happen, the U.S. S&P 500 Index was to rise by 743%, while the EAFE Index of not-U.S. stocks rose by 237%.
Sometimes old advice is the best advice. :wink:

Best wishes.
Taylor
Jack Bogle's old-fashioned advice about international investing:

Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks

Here's Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Like Investing In Foreign Markets

Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle on Mutual Funds, Common Sense Investing and the Stock Market

Jack Bogle on Market Index Funds (2014)

Bogle: Why I Don't Invest Overseas

Why Bogle Doesn't 'Do' International Investing

:wink:
This is Vanguard's modern day advice.


https://investor.vanguard.com/investing ... -investing

:wink:
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by fortfun »

anil686 wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 11:09 am Yep VTWAX as well. Once the ER came down with the Admiral share levels - I have stopped splitting VTSAX and VTIAX and just use VTWAX...
What is the portion of each? I'm wondering if I should switch all of our splits into one?? But international has been such a drag...
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by Oakwood42 »

lostdog wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 11:11 am VTWAX. It has 8032 stocks vs 3500 (VTSAX).

Don't be swayed by american exceptionalism, politics, past performance, ideologies, american nationalism, make believe crystal balls that can see into the future and many more weak arguments... Don't fall into this trap touted by some on this forum. Good luck with your choice.
reminds of a quote I once red from someone who knows a little about investing:

"For 240 years it's been a terrible mistake to bet against America, and now is no time to start."
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by Robert_007 »

I was considering investing in vtwax however I can’t stomach investing a penny in China. Seems morally wrong to me. I’d rather take a slight loss and invest in US and developed markets with some money in an India etf. Obviously, everyone is in a different camp in this regard
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by Robert_007 »

I was considering investing in vtwax however I can’t stomach investing a penny in China. Seems morally wrong to me. I’d rather take a slight loss and invest in US and developed markets with some money in an India etf. Obviously, everyone is in a different camp in this regard
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by Taylor Larimore »

Oakwood42 wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 6:06 pm
lostdog wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 11:11 am VTWAX. It has 8032 stocks vs 3500 (VTSAX).

Don't be swayed by american exceptionalism, politics, past performance, ideologies, american nationalism, make believe crystal balls that can see into the future and many more weak arguments... Don't fall into this trap touted by some on this forum. Good luck with your choice.
reminds of a quote I once red from someone who knows a little about investing:

"For 240 years it's been a terrible mistake to bet against America, and now is no time to start."
Oaakwood42:

Thank you for this quote from Warren Buffett in his 2016 Letter to Shareholders.

So far, he has been right.

Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by anil686 »

I think this topic is discussed way more than it really deserves to be IMO. If you choose VTSAX - you will probably be fine. The risk is that your returns do not appreciate as fast as other regions of the world. If you choose VTWAX, even if the US outperforms - VTWAX will follow it. After all, it is a *company* not country weighted index and the top companies in the world dominate the index. Right now most are from the US. That can change or it may not. Either way, you have a superb funds capturing great returns...
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by lostdog »

Taylor Larimore wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 7:29 pm
Oakwood42 wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 6:06 pm
lostdog wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 11:11 am VTWAX. It has 8032 stocks vs 3500 (VTSAX).

Don't be swayed by american exceptionalism, politics, past performance, ideologies, american nationalism, make believe crystal balls that can see into the future and many more weak arguments... Don't fall into this trap touted by some on this forum. Good luck with your choice.
reminds of a quote I once red from someone who knows a little about investing:

"For 240 years it's been a terrible mistake to bet against America, and now is no time to start."
Oaakwood42:

Thank you for this quote from Warren Buffett in his 2016 Letter to Shareholders.

So far, he has been right.

Best wishes.
Taylor
I think I'll call it quits replying to threads about international investing allocations. Good luck.
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Split the difference and do 50/50. :D
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by bogledogle87 »

Deleted
Last edited by bogledogle87 on Fri May 17, 2019 6:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
VTWAX and chill
Triple digit golfer
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Oakwood42 wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 6:06 pm
lostdog wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 11:11 am VTWAX. It has 8032 stocks vs 3500 (VTSAX).

Don't be swayed by american exceptionalism, politics, past performance, ideologies, american nationalism, make believe crystal balls that can see into the future and many more weak arguments... Don't fall into this trap touted by some on this forum. Good luck with your choice.
reminds of a quote I once red from someone who knows a little about investing:

"For 240 years it's been a terrible mistake to bet against America, and now is no time to start."
Allocating some money to non U.S. equities is not a bet against America. It is a hedge for it.
Robert_007
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by Robert_007 »

Don’t stop lostdog. You were one of the few who got me to ask more questions and divert some of my investments to a more global portfolio.
fennewaldaj
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by fennewaldaj »

Robert_007 wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 7:28 pm I was considering investing in vtwax however I can’t stomach investing a penny in China. Seems morally wrong to me. I’d rather take a slight loss and invest in US and developed markets with some money in an India etf. Obviously, everyone is in a different camp in this regard
There are some EM ex china etfs (EMXC, EGAI) now if that is the only country you want to avoid. They have low AUM now but they may grow eventually.
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by Robert_007 »

Thanks I’ll look into it
UpperNwGuy
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by UpperNwGuy »

pkcrafter wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 1:00 pm
guyesmith wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 10:05 am VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

That's Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund or the Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund.

What do you think?
Neither. I would suggest ~25-35% total international and the rest in VTSAX. Also some bonds to create a fully diversified portfolio.

Paul
+1
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wassabi
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by wassabi »

Robert_007 wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 8:25 pm Don’t stop lostdog. You were one of the few who got me to ask more questions and divert some of my investments to a more global portfolio.
Agree. These threads are insightful and serve as a good reminder about international investing. Doesn't matter if some of the same information is repeated; that's because it's important. But there's always a nugget or two I pull from each thread that helps cement my views.
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by s8r »

:happy

Why is this US vs ex-US thing a big issue for US-domiciled investors only? Investors domiciled outside the US are usually far more eager to go 100% world market cap.

To my understanding, here the only meaningful difference between a US-domiciled investor and an investor domiciled outside the US is a different currency risk. I don't believe a different currency risk is a logical reason to go 100% US or some other disproportionate overweight.
Last edited by s8r on Fri May 17, 2019 6:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Vulcan
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by Vulcan »

TropikThunder wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 11:27 am
Trader Joe wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 11:17 am
guyesmith wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 10:05 am VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

That's Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund or the Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund.

What do you think?
This is an easy question to answer. Either VTSAX (Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares) or VFIAX (Vanguard 500 Index Fund Admiral Shares).
See: Rome, Empire, Fall of.
Or just look out the window
If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything. ~Ronald Coase
lostdog
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by lostdog »

Nestle
Alibaba
Samsung
Toyota
Royal Dutch Shell
Roche

and many other good companies in the index from around the world that are NOT in VTSAX.
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
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oldzey
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by oldzey »

SimpleGift wrote: Sun Apr 28, 2019 12:10 pm If there's one country on the planet where investors don't need to worry too much about home country bias, it's the United States (chart below). For investors from other countries, this is a much more critical concern.
  • Image
    Note: As of second quarter 2017. Source: Heritage
That said, we do allocate about 35% of equities to international stocks, with tilts to small-caps and emerging markets.
This. :beer
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman
Coltrane75
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by Coltrane75 »

VTWAX
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UpsetRaptor
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by UpsetRaptor »

lostdog wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 4:54 pm
UpsetRaptor wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 4:52 pm VTSAX! US has outperformed all-world for a good century or two now.

The Credit Suisse image is often posted here as a reason not to VTSAX, which I don't understand because it actually shows a century+ of US outperformance, and that's even despite not including a few more US outperformance years on the tail.
For two centuries?
Absolutely. 200 years ago the US was not even a top 10 economy. Even in the late 19th century, it was still behind Britain.
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by asif408 »

If we're looking for best performing country, why not go 100% Australia? It's been the winner since 1900: https://www.credit-suisse.com/media/ass ... k-2019.pdf

If you're going to invest in only one country why settle for for 2nd best (US) over the last century when you can invest in the best?
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by lostdog »

asif408 wrote: Fri May 17, 2019 12:52 pm If we're looking for best performing country, why not go 100% Australia? It's been the winner since 1900: https://www.credit-suisse.com/media/ass ... k-2019.pdf

If you're going to invest in only one country why settle for for 2nd best (US) over the last century when you can invest in the best?
Because in the eyes of some on this board, anything outside of the U.S. is a desolate and corrupt wasteland.
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
WhiteMaxima
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by WhiteMaxima »

WAX all the way. It will be two fund rather than three fund. One Wax one BND. We will see more emerging market to take more % of the global share. One WAX take them all.
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by ruralavalon »

lostdog wrote: Fri May 17, 2019 1:21 pm
asif408 wrote: Fri May 17, 2019 12:52 pm If we're looking for best performing country, why not go 100% Australia? It's been the winner since 1900: https://www.credit-suisse.com/media/ass ... k-2019.pdf

If you're going to invest in only one country why settle for for 2nd best (US) over the last century when you can invest in the best?
Because in the eyes of some on this board, anything outside of the U.S. is a desolate and corrupt wasteland.
You can exaggerate :) .
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link: Bogleheads® investment philosophy
Coltrane75
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by Coltrane75 »

deleted
Last edited by Coltrane75 on Fri May 17, 2019 5:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
TomCat96
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by TomCat96 »

Prahasaurus wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 2:53 pm Why does this topic resurface 3-4 times per week with new threads? Why the fixation on international stock allocation? It seems we are having the same conversation over and over and over again. Yes, I prefer VTWAX. Yes, I have my reasons. But whatever, we don't need to have this conversation continuously. We are even reposting the same charts... Sure, they are interesting, but they were also quite interesting last week... :)

With a 35 year horizon, the most important thing is to add money to your equity fund regularly. That will make the biggest difference. If you are agonizing over VTSAX versus VTWAX and your time horizon is 35 years, that anguish should better be spent on figuring out how to earn more and/or save more so you can regularly invest for the next 35 years. That's where your energy should be focused.
Because lostdog attacks those with proUS investment views as idiots who are forsaking their duty to the younger generation of investors.
even going after Taylor Larimore above, and deriding Bogle's advice as outdated
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wassabi
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by wassabi »

TomCat96 wrote: Fri May 17, 2019 5:15 pm
Because lostdog attacks those with proUS investment views as idiots who are forsaking their duty to the younger generation of investors.
even going after Taylor Larimore above, and deriding Bogle's advice as outdated
I don't think it's a fair assessment to say lostdog "went after" Taylor. It's perfectly acceptable to disagree with someone's investment views or perspectives. There's nothing wrong with claiming Bogle's advice is outdated. It's an opinion and opinions are what fuel this board, especially when talking about anything in the future.
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Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

Post by oldzey »

If you're a U.S. investor, invested in a S&P 500 or Total Market U.S.index fund, half of your revenues already come from outside the U.S.

So, you have an international fund, minus the risks (e.g. currency, sovereign, stability) and fees associated with investing in international funds.

Works for me! :beer
JoMoney wrote: Fri Mar 30, 2018 8:07 pm MarketWatch(2015): S&P 500 companies generate barely over half their revenue at home
Image
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman
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