Search found 14956 matches

by arcticpineapplecorp.
Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Alternative speculative asset - digital trading cards (NBA Top Shot)
Replies: 81
Views: 6960

Re: Alternative speculative asset - digital trading cards (NBA Top Shot)

what do you say to all that? they're saying your "utility" may be devalued if demand goes down. You're dealing in commodities here. Nothing more nothing less. Commodities are a form of gambling because you only make money if you can sell something to someone else at a higher price. Ask people how that's worked out for them the last decade in oil. can i interest you in some porkbellies next? First, these are Collectibles, not Commodities. The fact that there are only a handful of each card means they are NOT freely interchangeable with each other, which is the definition of a Commodity. Second, Commodities are not a form of gambling. If investing in oil is gambling, is investing in oil stocks gambling? What do you think the oil co...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Alternative speculative asset - digital trading cards (NBA Top Shot)
Replies: 81
Views: 6960

Re: Alternative speculative asset - digital trading cards (NBA Top Shot)

I'd love to invest in the company itself but I don't think that's possible right now. why would you love to invest in this company? do you know if they are making a profit? have you looked at their balance sheet to see if they're burning cash? how much they're in debt? so on? how do they make money? do they? do they take a commission everytime you buy and/or sell your cards? you know absolutely nothing about the financial health (or sickness) of this company, yet you would "love" to invest in this company. this is the problem with the gamification of everything (especially) buying stocks. People want to buy things because they've seen a video on youtube. having lived through the dot com era (and assuming so many of the people dri...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Tue Jan 26, 2021 5:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Harvest some of $80k HSA for home down payment?
Replies: 4
Views: 641

Re: Harvest some of $80k HSA for home down payment?

agree with geerhardusvos. the HSA is the "Ultimate Retirement Account": https://www.madfientist.com/ultimate-retirement-account/ that money is tax and penalty free for medical expenses after 59.5 just like a Roth IRA. If not used for medical, it's taxed like a 401k/trad IRA but no penalties. you can still harvest those unused receipts later in life from your HSA when you'll likely need the money more than now. what if the market goes down (and your taxable acct)? Then you have less of an emergency fund. You could take some profits from your taxable (the $30,000 you're trying to get out of the HSA). Though consider the tax implications of capital gains if you go that route (though tax rate on LT gains is likely lower(15%) than your...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adjusting Asset Allocation Based on CAPE Ratio and Market Timing
Replies: 15
Views: 1670

Re: Adjusting Asset Allocation Based on CAPE Ratio and Market Timing

This makes the fourth post (in just a couple days) of this nature of market timing due to high valuations. So I guess it bears repeating again. Here are the other three: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=337708 https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=337673 https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=337750 some thoughts: 1. you do derisk by allocating a larger share of assets to bonds. 2. problem is bonds are at historically expensive levels too (or were recently when rates were lower last year). So aren't you buying bonds at high prices instead of stocks at high prices? Which will have the higher real returns? No way to know. 3. Greenspan said there was "irrational exuberance"...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Alternative speculative asset - digital trading cards (NBA Top Shot)
Replies: 81
Views: 6960

Re: Alternative speculative asset - digital trading cards (NBA Top Shot)

I'd love to invest in the company itself but I don't think that's possible right now. why would you love to invest in this company? do you know if they are making a profit? have you looked at their balance sheet to see if they're burning cash? how much they're in debt? so on? how do they make money? do they? do they take a commission everytime you buy and/or sell your cards? you know absolutely nothing about the financial health (or sickness) of this company, yet you would "love" to invest in this company. this is the problem with the gamification of everything (especially) buying stocks. People want to buy things because they've seen a video on youtube. having lived through the dot com era (and assuming so many of the people dri...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Tue Jan 26, 2021 2:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Changing (exchanging) Target Retirement funds advice
Replies: 2
Views: 331

Re: Changing (exchanging) Target Retirement funds advice

Hi all, I have several different accounts inside my Vanguard. Inside my Roth IRA and SEP i have target retirement 2045. I didn't put much thought when I initially set these up, and now hope to retire earlier based on life changes... My ideal based on recent changes is early retirement (eg pre 60) in 2030-35. Is there any value in selling these now and exchanging for Target Retirement 2035, and incur the cap gains , or should I wait closer to the date and sell them? I know that Target Retirement Funds generally adjust the mix of stocks/bonds, optimized for retirement, but not sure how this plays day to day. Thanks! there are no cap gains (taxes that is, which is what I think you're asking about) in a Roth IRA or SEP IRA. So that is not a co...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Tue Jan 26, 2021 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Over 32 million call options traded today, the 2nd most on record (highest was in November)
Replies: 50
Views: 6307

Re: Over 32 million call options traded today, the 2nd most on record (highest was in November)

Makefile wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 1:55 pm
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 1:41 pm can you show me yours?
Well 83%, but still.
VTSAX 98.04/53.54 (Yahoo! Finance dividend-adjusted close for 3/23/20) = 1.8312

Can also grind it out the hard way:
Start w/10000 3/23/20 @ 54.49 -> 183.520 shares
Dividend 3/25/20 .2965 @ 60.17/share -> +0.904 shares
Dividend 6/24/20 .3389 @ 74.87/share -> +0.835 shares
Dividend 9/24/20 .3259 @ 79.96/share -> +0.755 shares
Dividend 12/23/20 .3781 @ 93.66/share -> +0.751 shares
End 186.765 shares @ 98.04 = 18310.44
thanks.

weird that morningstar is showing a different gain (growth, divs included). Anyone care to guess why Yahoo is showing 83% gain since 3/23/2020 whereas morningstar is showing 78%?
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Tue Jan 26, 2021 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Over 32 million call options traded today, the 2nd most on record (highest was in November)
Replies: 50
Views: 6307

Re: Over 32 million call options traded today, the 2nd most on record (highest was in November)

however why use 3/23/20 as a starting point? That was a market bottom, but you could have easily said part of the market's run up was a recovery of the oversold market between Feb and March 2020. The market's up just 25% since last year (1/1/2020 to present) source: http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=VTSAX&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A11%2C%22version%22%3A%22US%22%2C%22showNav%22%3Atrue%2C%22defaultShowName%22%3A%22name%22%2C%22mainSettingId%22%3A%22main%22%2C%22navSettingId%22%3A%22nav%22%2C%22benchmarkSettingId%22%3A%22benchmark%22%2C%22sliderBgSettingId%22%3A%22sliderBg%22%2C%22volumeSettingId%22%3A%22volume%22%2C%22defaultBenchmark%22%3Afalse%2C%22id%22%3A%22FOUSA00L83%22%2C%22type%22%3A%22FO%22%2C%22region%22%3A%22U...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Tue Jan 26, 2021 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Over 32 million call options traded today, the 2nd most on record (highest was in November)
Replies: 50
Views: 6307

Re: Over 32 million call options traded today, the 2nd most on record (highest was in November)

Robinhood is a terrible thing too. Seriously? My millennial daughter says that Robinhood is what keeps her interested in investing. Before Robinhood, I couldn't interest her in investing beyond her 401K. I'm "millenial" but got burned (thankfully in the long run, I guess) playing around in 2011 with some individual stocks and screening by P/E, dividend yield, stocks near 52-week lows, etc. I'm so done with orders and everything else brokerage that I don't even want to deal with ETFs and stick to mutual funds. I think the problem with Robinhood is that it makes investing exciting, and with the total US market up 84% since 3/23/2020 , it's been hard to lose and so there is a lot of false confidence out there about people's "in...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Tue Jan 26, 2021 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: fees charged Raymond James, Edward Jones, Merrill Lynch ?
Replies: 103
Views: 17947

Re: fees charged Raymond James, Edward Jones, Merrill Lynch ?

Sandtrap wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:03 am Edward Jones promotes a retirement annuity for seniors, for a guaranteed 5% return for life. Sounds very appealing to many, especially in today's low interest rates.
Suppose a senior retiree were to buy one of these Edward Jone's annuities for $500,000

What would be the mechanics of this as far as costs, returns, actual percentage return vs return of principle, etc?

*How would you explain this to a "non financial person".??
I would see if the non financial person thought that 5% was a return ON principle or partly a return OF principle.
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Tue Jan 26, 2021 8:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buffet and the 4% Guy
Replies: 33
Views: 4098

Re: Buffet and the 4% Guy

i posted the following yesterday when someone said something similar here: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=337673 some thoughts: 1. you do derisk by allocating a larger share of assets to bonds. 2. problem is bonds are at historically expensive levels too (or were recently when rates were lower last year). So aren't you buying bonds at high prices instead of stocks at high prices? Which will have the higher real returns? No way to know. 3. Greenspan said there was "irrational exuberance" on 12/5/1996. If you'd have listened to him and sold out of the market on 12/5/1996 what would you have lost out on? See for yourself: http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=VTSAX&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Mon Jan 25, 2021 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: fees charged Raymond James, Edward Jones, Merrill Lynch ?
Replies: 103
Views: 17947

Re: fees charged Raymond James, Edward Jones, Merrill Lynch ?

hi_there wrote: Mon Jan 25, 2021 6:30 pm
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Mon Jan 25, 2021 3:51 pm
UBS (2.94%).
What? How can?
read more here (the actual report that shows where they got the numbers they did):
https://www.personalcapital.com/assets/ ... Report.pdf

Image
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Mon Jan 25, 2021 5:27 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Happy 97th Birthday, Taylor Larimore
Replies: 146
Views: 12452

Re: Happy 97th Birthday, Taylor Larimore

Happy Birthday Taylor. You've provided an invaluable service on many occasions. Thank you and hope you are doing well.
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Mon Jan 25, 2021 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: fees charged Raymond James, Edward Jones, Merrill Lynch ?
Replies: 103
Views: 17947

Re: fees charged Raymond James, Edward Jones, Merrill Lynch ?

retired@50 wrote: Mon Jan 25, 2021 4:27 pm
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Mon Jan 25, 2021 3:51 pm here's an article that compares low cost asset management (Vanguard being the lowest 0.38%, followed by Charles Schwab at 0.44% per year) vs more expensive (you'll see Ameriprise is the highest/most expensive/worst).

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-yo ... 2017-11-16
404 error for the link above.

Regards,
thanks. fixed. space between letters.
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Mon Jan 25, 2021 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: fees charged Raymond James, Edward Jones, Merrill Lynch ?
Replies: 103
Views: 17947

Re: fees charged Raymond James, Edward Jones, Merrill Lynch ?

here's an article that compares low cost asset management (Vanguard being the lowest 0.38%, followed by Charles Schwab at 0.44% per year) vs more expensive (you'll see Ameriprise is the highest/most expensive/worst). https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-your-financial-adviser-in-the-hidden-fee-hall-of-shame-2017-11-16 After that, prices really jump. Edward Jones (1.70% to 1.80%), J.P. Morgan (1.56% to 1.86%), Merrill Lynch (1.33% to 2.33%), Wells Fargo (1.93% to 2.43%), Morgan Stanley (2.42% to 2.92%), UBS (2.94%). At the very top of the high-cost list is Ameriprise. Fees at the nationwide financial planning firm fall between 2.25% and 3.50%, the report states. In dollar terms, that means that a portfolio that costs $380 a year at Vanguard ...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Mon Jan 25, 2021 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to profit from irrational behavior?
Replies: 63
Views: 6381

Re: How to profit from irrational behavior?

wmackey wrote: Mon Jan 25, 2021 1:03 pm
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 9:18 pm you have to make sure you're not the greatest fool.

once you figure that out, let us know how you did that consistently.
Technically, you want to be the second greatest fool. Just sayin.
that's what I said. In order to NOT be the greatest fool, you'd have to sell out before the next greater fool who would be the greatest fool because s/he couldn't get out (but you could). That by definition, would make you the second greatest fool. Thought that was evident, but perhaps not. I pity the fool.
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Mon Jan 25, 2021 2:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Not Comfortable With The Current Stock Market Valuation
Replies: 45
Views: 3675

Re: Not Comfortable With The Current Stock Market Valuation

I am currently using a three-fund portfolio: 76/14/10. How do I derisk it other than allocating a larger share of assets to bonds? Will it make sense to move 10%-20% of the portfolio to cash and consider it as a "bond" allocation? some thoughts: 1. you do derisk by allocating a larger share of assets to bonds. 2. problem is bonds are at historically expensive levels too (or were recently when rates were lower last year). So aren't you buying bonds at high prices instead of stocks at high prices? Which will have the higher real returns? No way to know. 3. Greenspan said there was "irrational exuberance" on 12/5/1996. If you'd have listened to him and sold out of the market on 12/5/1996 what would you have lost out on? Se...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Sun Jan 24, 2021 9:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I just bought individual stocks and a lot of them.
Replies: 218
Views: 20960

Re: I just bought individual stocks and a lot of them.

Bama12 wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 9:14 pm No game stop?
those are for shorting I've heard.
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Sun Jan 24, 2021 9:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I just bought individual stocks and a lot of them.
Replies: 218
Views: 20960

Re: I just bought individual stocks and a lot of them.

Guys, I cannot for any conscience keep investing in these markets which are extremely over valued. I wanted to buy globally diversified index fund and those are also over valued. Also I am not confident in the international markets either. So I just on an impulse liquidated my ETF holdings and started buying individual stocks. All of them give me a dividend of 4-9% and HAVE BEEN VERY BAD INVESTMENTS FOR THE LAST 5 YEARS. I just did not want to go through a 2000-2011 draw down. Even worse this could be more like 1969-1982 situation of stagflation with Dollar going down and inflation spiking and very low growth. So my account value $4.2m, I just divided in to $100k chunks and bought dividend paying stocks and a total of 42 stocks. 401k - 1.5...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Sun Jan 24, 2021 9:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Individual stocks? Hear me out.
Replies: 61
Views: 4724

Re: Individual stocks? Hear me out.

He monitors it all the time but for the most part he buys bigger companies for example, mcdonalds, disney, honeywell and so on. Not sure how he did back then but hes not one of those who trades all the time. He doesnt seem to lose too much. He'd be honest with me about that. Thanks. I try! When/if i have a child, I'd start them up with an index right away hear me out. unless you actually look at what's happening and I mean a deep dive, everybody's got a good story to tell. i'm not saying your brother is lying. as was already said the Beardstown Ladies thought they were honest too. They messed up the math. It wasn't intentional. Happens all the time. People think they're doing well, but until and unless they actual look at the numbers they ...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Sun Jan 24, 2021 9:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What advisors do you have in your life?
Replies: 20
Views: 2155

Re: What advisors do you have in your life?

Good advice is worth its cost. The problem is you do not know what you do not know. The other side of it is good advice is not free and 3-500 dollars an hour can add up really fast. Also, you can pay and get bad advice. Do it yourself and boards have definite advantages too. Which part of your life do you feel the need to optimize first? How far off do you think you are from your goals in that domain? You’re right about not knowing what I don’t know. For example my friend bought a house and he didn’t sell any of his stocks, he put them in escrow with the mortgage lender. So he still gets the benefit of gains. On a 300k downpayment that’s say 21k a year in interest if you assume 7% return. That blew my mind. I never thought something like t...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Sun Jan 24, 2021 8:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Individual stocks? Hear me out.
Replies: 61
Views: 4724

Re: Individual stocks? Hear me out.

He monitors it all the time but for the most part he buys bigger companies for example, mcdonalds, disney, honeywell and so on. Not sure how he did back then but hes not one of those who trades all the time. He doesnt seem to lose too much. He'd be honest with me about that. Thanks. I try! When/if i have a child, I'd start them up with an index right away hear me out. unless you actually look at what's happening and I mean a deep dive, everybody's got a good story to tell. i'm not saying your brother is lying. as was already said the Beardstown Ladies thought they were honest too. They messed up the math. It wasn't intentional. Happens all the time. People think they're doing well, but until and unless they actual look at the numbers they ...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Sun Jan 24, 2021 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Bengen’s Work Reliable?
Replies: 49
Views: 3416

Re: Is Bengen’s Work Reliable?

did you read this recent post (yesterday actually):
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=337382
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Sun Jan 24, 2021 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ‘Frogs in boiling water’: Urgent warning for 50% market drop
Replies: 188
Views: 36134

Re: ‘Frogs in boiling water’: Urgent warning for 50% market drop

thank you. what i've learned from this post is Seth Klarman knows neither about:
1. marine biology
2. french cuisine

carry on.
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Sun Jan 24, 2021 7:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Views of iShares AOR
Replies: 12
Views: 2894

Re: Views of iShares AOR

I am looking to put some money in the 2nd bucket (1st bucket being 1-3 years of cash, 2nd being 3-10 years) and given the current state of bonds, want more of an equity tilt. Does anyone have any views on iShares Core Growth Allocation ETF (AOR)? This looks to me as a better option compared to any of the target funds. I would appreciate any views. Thanks what makes it look "better" than a target date fund to you? It has a higher expense ratio (0.25%) than most target date funds. source: https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239756/ishares-growth-allocation-etf it's called a growth allocation but it appears to be 63% stock / 37% fixed income which seems more like a balanced fund to me. I think of a growth fund that's something more ...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Sun Jan 24, 2021 4:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Target Date Funds Available in your 401k
Replies: 39
Views: 3164

Re: Target Date Funds Available in your 401k

my employer only started offering target date funds (BlackRock) last January (2020). The fees are low 0.08%. But there is an administrative fee that's gone up each year for several years. It's now $60/year ($4.95/month) but when I started investing in the 457b plan I think they were charging $12.50 a year. It's steadily gone up each year. But with the 0.08% exp. ratio, I can't complain because as the AUM have increased even a $60 fee annually represents a very small addition to the expense ratio. Before they had target date funds the only all in one funds they had were asset allocation funds, and only four 80/20, 60/40, 60/40 (all US), and 30/70. They got rid of those and now have target date funds in addition to the standalone if you want...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Sun Jan 24, 2021 11:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Target Date Funds Available in your 401k
Replies: 39
Views: 3164

Re: Target Date Funds Available in your 401k

my employer only started offering target date funds (BlackRock) last January (2020). The fees are low 0.08%. But there is an administrative fee that's gone up each year for several years. It's now $60/year ($4.95/month) but when I started investing in the 457b plan I think they were charging $12.50 a year. It's steadily gone up each year. But with the 0.08% exp. ratio, I can't complain because as the AUM have increased even a $60 fee annually represents a very small addition to the expense ratio. Before they had target date funds the only all in one funds they had were asset allocation funds, and only four 80/20, 60/40, 60/40 (all US), and 30/70. They got rid of those and now have target date funds in addition to the standalone if you want ...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Sun Jan 24, 2021 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: wash sale substantially identical question(s)
Replies: 101
Views: 5331

Re: wash sale substantially identical question(s)

question 1: no. if you're selling one fund and buying another they can't be substantially identical. So you can sell 80/20 S&P500 and extended market and buy total stock market because first off, you probably won't have the percentages exactly correct and secondly neither S&P500 NOR extended market are substantially identical to total market, in and of themselves (individually). question 2: a. if the large cap stock follows an index which tracks the S&P500 then those would be substantially identical and you shouldn't look at them as harvesting partners. So without knowing more, it depends upon the large cap stock fund you choose as a partner. b. the exended market is not the same as a small cap fund. The extended market is comp...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Sun Jan 24, 2021 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: wash sale substantially identical question(s)
Replies: 101
Views: 5331

Re: wash sale substantially identical question(s)

Can a combination of funds be substantially identical to one fund? Or does that label only apply to one-to-one fund comparisons? - For example, is an 80/20 combo of Vanguard S&P 500/Extended Market substantially identical to Vanguard Total Stock Market? If the answer is yes, then I have another question... Can a combination of two funds be substantially identical to another combination of two funds? - For example, is an 80/20 combo of S&P 500/Extended substantially identical to a 90/10 combo of Large-Cap/Small-Cap? question 1: no. if you're selling one fund and buying another they can't be substantially identical. So you can sell 80/20 S&P500 and extended market and buy total stock market because first off, you probably won't h...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Sun Jan 24, 2021 11:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I just bought individual stocks and a lot of them.
Replies: 218
Views: 20960

Re: I just bought individual stocks and a lot of them.

Guys, I cannot for any conscience keep investing in these markets which are extremely over valued. I wanted to buy globally diversified index fund and those are also over valued. Also I am not confident in the international markets either. So I just on an impulse liquidated my ETF holdings and started buying individual stocks. All of them give me a dividend of 4-9% and HAVE BEEN VERY BAD INVESTMENTS FOR THE LAST 5 YEARS. I just did not want to go through a 2000-2011 draw down. Even worse this could be more like 1969-1982 situation of stagflation with Dollar going down and inflation spiking and very low growth. So my account value $4.2m, I just divided in to $100k chunks and bought dividend paying stocks and a total of 42 stocks. 401k - 1.5...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Sun Jan 24, 2021 11:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 10 year treasury down
Replies: 13
Views: 1495

Re: 10 year treasury down

I invested in VUSUX which is a vanguard long term treasury bond thinking it is a safe haven (my naivete) in an overvalued stock market. Between July of 2020 when I invested to now, I have lost 7% of its value. I have come to understand that bonds are just as volatile as the stock indexes. Any critique of this theory? risk and return are inextricably linked. long term bonds "may" offer higher returns than shorter term bonds, but that is because of the higher risk than shorter term bonds. If you're unhappy with the losses of a long term bond, perhaps you should be invested in a shorter term bond which carries less risk. it is recommended to take your risk on the stock side of your portfolio and keep your bonds for safety. That sugg...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Sun Jan 24, 2021 11:20 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Any boring investors left?
Replies: 222
Views: 18184

Re: Any boring investors left?

i'm dull as dirt.
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Sun Jan 24, 2021 11:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I just bought individual stocks and a lot of them.
Replies: 218
Views: 20960

Re: I just bought individual stocks and a lot of them.

Guys, I cannot for any conscience keep investing in these markets which are extremely over valued. I wanted to buy globally diversified index fund and those are also over valued. Also I am not confident in the international markets either. So I just on an impulse liquidated my ETF holdings and started buying individual stocks. All of them give me a dividend of 4-9% and HAVE BEEN VERY BAD INVESTMENTS FOR THE LAST 5 YEARS. I just did not want to go through a 2000-2011 draw down. Even worse this could be more like 1969-1982 situation of stagflation with Dollar going down and inflation spiking and very low growth. So my account value $4.2m, I just divided in to $100k chunks and bought dividend paying stocks and a total of 42 stocks. 401k - 1.5...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Sun Jan 24, 2021 10:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paypal sent me a 1099K [for eBay sales]
Replies: 73
Views: 15390

Re: Paypal sent me a 1099K

The money that was reported certainly is not pure income, as each item that I sold had an original cost (some higher, some lower), but if I have to go back through every single eBay transaction and try to track down original receipts for each item, that is going to take me dozens of hours and I still won't be able to account for everything. I can understand if I was running a business , but they really can't expect personal eBay sellers to do this kind of accounting for every sale. What should I do? you have to keep track of your receipts, both income and outgoing otherwise how do you know how much profit you've received from your sales? The other reason to know this is to know if you have to file a tax return. you would have to file (for ...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Sat Jan 23, 2021 10:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Capital Gains Tax Questions on 500Kish of capital gains
Replies: 18
Views: 2456

Re: Capital Gains Tax Questions on 500Kish of capital gains

2. cash out half the capital gains (250K) which means I will owe the IRS roughly 35% of that which is 87K 4. So the amount I bet was roughly 250K and have tripled it to 750K hence the 500K capital gains tax, when I withdraw sell, lets say 250K worth of the stock, does the system know to take out my principle first? how does all of that work? So i would need to sell 250K first to take out principle and another 250K which will be the capital gains? Does the system do it that way? (I use TDameritrade) regarding #2: is it 35% tax because these are short term gains rather than long term gains? Let's assume you're selling an investment you haven't held for at least a year in the next example. regarding #4: say you bought 1000 shares for $250 eac...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Sat Jan 23, 2021 8:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Emergency Fundvestment - Planning for Large Future Expenses
Replies: 17
Views: 1330

Re: Emergency Fundvestment - Planning for Large Future Expenses

Medicare should cover most MEDICAL expenses, it’s long term care expenses that Medicaid would cover should she need nursing home care. In order for that to kick in, she would need to spend down her 350k. she also might be eligible (when she spends down) for a medicaid waiver should she need in home care. In NJ (if she's there, guessing based on the OP's most recent post) here's info on that: http://medicaidwaiver.org/state/new_jersey.html also there are day programs for people with brain injury in NJ: https://bianj.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/dayprogram.pdf Finally, when she gets down to $100K there's this: Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) Fund The TBI Fund provides New Jersey residents of any age, who have survived a traumatic brain injury...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Sat Jan 23, 2021 3:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: No Love For Vanguard GNMA Fund. Why?
Replies: 48
Views: 7066

Re: No Love For Vanguard GNMA Fund. Why?

Damn. Bonds are complicated. I wish CDs were paying better! be careful what you wish for. when interest rates were higher it was often because inflation was higher. the net or real return (after inflation) on CDs has never been great. Because CDs are safe, not risky. Therefore they are not for growth, but for safety. https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/banking/historical-cd-rates https://www.thebalance.com/can-cd-rates-go-back-to-historical-highs-and-lows-4179031 Inflation cuts into the spending power of the dollar, making goods today cost more next year. If inflation is, say, 15%, and a CD rate is 17%, then it's beating inflation by 2% — and that would be the real return. source: https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/banking/historical-cd-rat...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Sat Jan 23, 2021 2:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Equity Bubble Investing AKA How/when to get back in?
Replies: 38
Views: 3027

Re: Equity Bubble Investing AKA How/when to get back in?

first refinance your mortgage. why are you paying 4%? Rates are in the 3s and 2s depending. You should drop by 1%. Can you put the cash towards your mortgage and do a 15 or new 20 year loan? That might get you an even lower rate! https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/20-year-mortgage-rates/?pointsChanged=false&searchChanged=true&mortgageType=Purchase&zipCode=17551&partnerId=br3&ttcid&userCreditScore=740&userVeteranStatus=NoMilitaryService&userHadPriorVaLoan=false&userHasVaDisabilities=false&userFirstTimeHomebuyer=false&userQuickClosing=false&userFha=false&userLowUpfrontCosts=false&userLowPayment=false&purchasePrice=310000&purchaseDownPayment=62000&purchasePropertyType=SingleFa...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Sat Jan 23, 2021 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [The Originator of ‘the 4% Rule’ Thinks It’s Off the Mark. Could Be Up to 4.5%]
Replies: 14
Views: 1393

Re: [The Originator of ‘the 4% Rule’ Thinks It’s Off the Mark. Could Be Up to 4.5%]

this part of the interview was also interesting and relevant: Michael: Interesting. So I guess the big asterisk to the whole thing about 4% rule and that original research is just, today, we do have more investment opportunities. We own more than it – lower than two-asset class portfolio, large cap U.S. stocks, intermediate U.S. government bonds, and nothing else. And I guess it’s no great surprise, or as we know from modern portfolio theory, in theory, if we have more diversified portfolios, we can get better risk-adjusted returns. And I guess, when you put the safe withdrawal rate lens on it, you get a similar effect, more diversification and less volatility for a unit of risk. And then, you end up with more retirement income sustainabili...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Sat Jan 23, 2021 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [The Originator of ‘the 4% Rule’ Thinks It’s Off the Mark. Could Be Up to 4.5%]
Replies: 14
Views: 1393

Re: The Originator of ‘the 4% Rule’ Thinks It’s Off the Mark. He Says It Now Could Be Up to 4.5%

Most fascinating part of your link: How do you have your money invested? I’m currently allocating far less to stocks than I normally would be. I normally have a 50% allocation of stocks. I’m at about 25%. I just have a very uncomfortable feeling about the speculation in this market, the extremely high valuations, and the disparity between the stock market and the economy with the virus. Isn’t this violating your own rule about keeping between 40% and 75% of assets in stocks? My position is a temporary one. The 40% to 75% average is a long-term average you’d like to maintain. I’m doing this because of short-term conditions that I consider dangerous. I’m hoping after this is over, I’ll return to my normal allocation for stocks. I may even go...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Sat Jan 23, 2021 2:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Good problem to have - but need advice.
Replies: 29
Views: 2395

Re: Good problem to have - but need advice.

Mttownse wrote: Sat Jan 23, 2021 2:17 pm
mikejuss wrote: Sat Jan 23, 2021 2:14 pm
Mttownse wrote: Sat Jan 23, 2021 2:01 pm
02nz wrote: Sat Jan 23, 2021 1:55 pm
Mttownse wrote: Sat Jan 23, 2021 1:52 pm They are both maxed at the moment. Had the roth 401k for tax diversification but I am phasing it out.
Tax-deferred is the way to go if early retirement is in the cards.
Why would that be? I will likely live off less than my current salary in retirement.
That's exactly why tax-deferred, traditional 401(k) contributions are the way to go: when you retire, you'll be in a lower tax bracket, and thus will pay less taxes on the money than you would right now.
Correct. Sorry. I misread your reply
also there's this:
https://www.madfientist.com/how-to-acce ... nds-early/
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Sat Jan 23, 2021 2:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Good problem to have - but need advice.
Replies: 29
Views: 2395

Re: Good problem to have - but need advice.

I am happy to say that maxing my accounts and some good investments (yay 3000 Nio at 1.38) have led me to a far better financial position than I expected at this age. Have you sold the Nio shares or do you still own them? Still have 2/3rds sold out 1/3 at 58....almost rebought the 38 dip. Oh well....cant complain. if it's around $62 now and you sold some at $58, wouldn't you want to sell more (or the rest) at $62? you're saying Nio led you to a better financial position, but it's risky to own individual stocks. They can go to $0. You would go from a far better financial position to a far worse financial position based on the behavior of the stock price of a single company. something to consider. William Sharpe said as everyone knows the th...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Sat Jan 23, 2021 1:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Good problem to have - but need advice.
Replies: 29
Views: 2395

Re: Good problem to have - but need advice.

Mttownse wrote: Sat Jan 23, 2021 12:41 pm I am happy to say that maxing my accounts and some good investments (yay 3000 Nio at 1.38) have led me to a far better financial position than I expected at this age.
Have you sold the Nio shares or do you still own them?
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Sat Jan 23, 2021 1:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Emergency Fundvestment - Planning for Large Future Expenses
Replies: 17
Views: 1330

Re: Emergency Fundvestment - Planning for Large Future Expenses

if you're offered a company match in the 457b and or 403b and you're not contributing to capture that match, you're giving up alot. Think about if you contribute 5% and the company matches that with 5%. You've just doubled your money. Where can you double your money that quickly? Nowhere except GameStop (that was a joke). So think about what you're giving up. Not sure what you mean about putting away money where it's less accessible. If you have a catastrophic situation, you'd likely not be employed anymore and be able to withdraw money and even likely get hardship exemption to avoid early withdrawal penalty. Unless you're talking about needing money for your mom? In that case you could if need be stop contributing at some future date (when...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Sat Jan 23, 2021 1:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Company 401(k) plans
Replies: 5
Views: 536

Re: Company 401(k) plans

have you read this:
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/How_to_ ... 01(k)_plan

what kind of alternative plan are you looking for?

any plan that includes low cost index funds is going to better for your co-workers.

whether it is for the company is another matter.

they probably like the fee sharing arrangements of a more expensive 401k plan borne by the employees.
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Sat Jan 23, 2021 1:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where to put cash in 401K for one month
Replies: 14
Views: 1130

Re: Where to put cash in 401K for one month

i was wondering how someone suddenly wound up with $600k in their 401k in cash, but figured you must have sold some stock worth $600k that's now in cash. Is that it?

do you have a stable value fund in your 401k? If so, that would meet your goal. Or a short term bond index fund if available.

Otherwise, invest according to your IPS.

I assume you have one.

If not, click on the link in my signature below.

have a good day now.
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Sat Jan 23, 2021 1:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Disposing of old Medicines
Replies: 16
Views: 1620

Re: Disposing of old Medicines

can you take them back to the pharmacy for disposal?
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Sat Jan 23, 2021 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 5086
Views: 400707

Re: GameStop GME: anyone joining?

can't wait til this GameStops.

see what i did there?
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Fri Jan 22, 2021 9:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Received 1099-INT from IRS. What is this?
Replies: 4
Views: 1253

Re: Received 1099-INT from IRS. What is this?

could it be this: Many individual taxpayers whose 2019 tax returns show refunds will receive interest from the IRS. The regular April 15 due date for filing returns and paying income taxes was postponed to July 15, 2020, as part of the IRS response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The IRS is required by law to pay interest on tax refunds due to individual taxpayers affected by the federally declared disaster who filed their Federal tax returns for 2019 on or before the postponed due date of July 15, 2020. The overpayment interest will generally accrue from the original April 15 due date, rather than the postponed due date of July 15. Normally, the IRS is required to pay interest on a refund if the refund is issued after a statutory 45-day period. ...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Fri Jan 22, 2021 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to profit from irrational behavior?
Replies: 63
Views: 6381

Re: How to profit from irrational behavior?

you have to make sure you're not the greatest fool. once you figure that out, let us know how you did that consistently. With rebalancing, couldn't you make a large profit off of speculation even if you ARE the greatest fool? IE: let your speculative position go to zero? you're assuming you've rebalanced before it's gone to zero. Ask the employees of Enron how easy it was to sell their stock before it went to zero. Sure they might have been in a blackout period when they were prohibited by their employer from selling, but when there's a rush to the bottom do you really think it's easy to find a buyer when everyone else is selling at lower and lower prices, all trying to get out before it goes to zero? How about all the non Enron employees ...