Search found 380 matches

by MarkRoulo
Tue Apr 20, 2021 5:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Synthetic Cash?
Replies: 28
Views: 2407

Re: Synthetic Cash?

Hi, I'm trying to figure out of this is a crazy idea. Why would I leave money in cash when I could park slightly more in a low volatility portfolio with a much higher return? For example in 33:33:33 stocks, Long term treasuries, short term treasuries? (Basically the Permanent Portfolio without gold...
by MarkRoulo
Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: First child entering college in the fall... need some advice
Replies: 186
Views: 11979

Re: First child entering college in the fall... need some advice

OP said "2 of the very top Ivy League schools, each with stellar reputations". Top, stellar and Ivy is redundant and I wonder if OP is expanding the definition of Ivy by including other colleagues. Other non-Ivy which nevertheless are top schools. "Ivy League" is quite precise. ...
by MarkRoulo
Tue Apr 13, 2021 10:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any happy lawyers out there?
Replies: 138
Views: 12807

Re: Any happy lawyers out there?

Hello, all. I have a first-world problem to share with the Bogleheads. I'm in my mid-late 20s with a couple years of high school teaching under my belt. I do not lack for money and (with any luck) likely never will. I live below my means, and I want for nothing material. ... I love my job. ... I ca...
by MarkRoulo
Mon Apr 12, 2021 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this the single worst time to be a passive investor
Replies: 73
Views: 9340

Re: Is this the single worst time to be a passive investor

I stumbled upon an article on Yahoo Finance: "This is the single worst time to be a passive investor in since they started passive investments... The [S&P 500] index is highly likely to not make money over the next 10 years," said Bill Smead, chief investment officer of Smead Capital ...
by MarkRoulo
Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost
Replies: 238
Views: 12064

Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

... The problem is kids who go to CC first have maybe a 15% chance of ultimately getting a 4 year degree. I know it is up to individual effort, but these numbers are abysmal. The state school I am looking at has a 37% four year graduation rate, and a 62% 6 year graduation rate. A four year degree s...
by MarkRoulo
Mon Apr 05, 2021 5:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone else see drastic increase in Zillow value today?
Replies: 132
Views: 12756

Re: Anyone else see drastic increase in Zillow value today?

bigtex wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 3:02 pm I noticed my Zillow home value increased by 20k this past month. Are any of you seeing this too? I wonder if Zillow changed their algorithm or something?
It isn't just you.
by MarkRoulo
Mon Apr 05, 2021 5:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your recommended banks for High Yield Savings & CDs
Replies: 46
Views: 4737

Re: Your recommended banks for High Yield Savings & CDs

Hi, I'd like to get feedback on which banks are giving decent rates AND you've had good experiences with - and which banks should be avoided. I'm looking for a High Yield Savings account yield of 0.50% and/or an 18-month CD rate of 0.60-0.65%. I've had pretty good experiences with Ally, GS Bank (Ma...
by MarkRoulo
Sun Apr 04, 2021 5:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a house in Bay Area
Replies: 57
Views: 4573

Re: Buying a house in Bay Area

Every time we see one of these threads my jaw hits the floor. I cannot fathom dealing with these housing costs. The median household income is like $60k. Where the heck do normal people live? Normal people live in places with names like Cincinnati. Or Boise. Or Tuscon. The average California (publi...
by MarkRoulo
Sun Apr 04, 2021 2:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where to go for cash position returns ?
Replies: 15
Views: 1053

Re: Where to go for cash position returns ?

Thanks for weighing in for my threads. In out current low interest environment. I find cash positions with Money Market/savings not bringing any money. Where do we go ? Thanks for sharing. Marcus (online bank) offers 0.50% My credit union offers the same. One year US treasuries are around 0.10% You...
by MarkRoulo
Sun Apr 04, 2021 2:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a house in Bay Area
Replies: 57
Views: 4573

Re: Buying a house in Bay Area

I'm considering purchasing a SFH for ~1.6M in the Bay Area, but I can't shake the uneasiness of buying it and wanted to check in here to get some advice. I know I can't fortune tell the future, but I do want to holistically plan this purchase in the context of making sure we're on track to a comfor...
by MarkRoulo
Fri Apr 02, 2021 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Useless Investment Books
Replies: 106
Views: 9181

Re: Useless Investment Books

Then I bought "One Up On Wall Street" by Peter Lynch. Lots of vague advice. Short of spending 23 hours a day pouring over financial statements, he suggests looking at a company's parking lot to observe the number of cars parked there. Well, OK, assuming there is such a company within a re...
by MarkRoulo
Fri Apr 02, 2021 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Useless Investment Books
Replies: 106
Views: 9181

Re: Useless Investment Books

Then I bought "One Up On Wall Street" by Peter Lynch. Lots of vague advice. Short of spending 23 hours a day pouring over financial statements, he suggests looking at a company's parking lot to observe the number of cars parked there. Well, OK, assuming there is such a company within a re...
by MarkRoulo
Thu Apr 01, 2021 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Useless Investment Books
Replies: 106
Views: 9181

Re: Useless Investment Books

Then I bought "One Up On Wall Street" by Peter Lynch. Lots of vague advice. Short of spending 23 hours a day pouring over financial statements, he suggests looking at a company's parking lot to observe the number of cars parked there. Well, OK, assuming there is such a company within a re...
by MarkRoulo
Tue Mar 30, 2021 12:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Does Honors Undergrad help Grad School Admission
Replies: 38
Views: 2840

Re: Does Honors Undergrad help Grad School Admission

... My second question is whether he should do grad school? Will it help him in his career enough to justify the cost in time and money compared to starting at an excellent tech company right out of college? His current view is that a top grad school would probably be worth it, but getting a gradua...
by MarkRoulo
Fri Mar 26, 2021 8:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: High ranked Univ with liberal arts major or lower ranked school with STEM major
Replies: 121
Views: 8311

Re: High ranked Univ with liberal arts major or lower ranked school with STEM major

I'd imagine that one isn't cut out for a challenging STEM program if you can get into the program on your own. I presume the "can" should be "can't" (if not, then ignore my comment). This is not true. One might get wait listed for one college's engineering program and get accept...
by MarkRoulo
Fri Mar 26, 2021 5:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tales from this insane real estate market
Replies: 449
Views: 57222

Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

It's easy to say prices are insane and everyone is in an irrational frenzy. It might even be true. But I wonder if something else is going on. Here is one theory that seems consistent with the 30-something professionals I know. The past few decades have seen an enormous growth in income inequality....
by MarkRoulo
Thu Mar 25, 2021 11:12 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Engineering - Umich (OOS) - Uva (InState)
Replies: 74
Views: 3009

Re: Engineering - Umich (OOS) - Uva (InState)

DC got in Umich (OOS), and UVA (Instate). The cost difference is around $35K/year. He is set on engineering and leaning towards Aero/Mechanical but may switch to CS. Umich is definitely much better in engineering than UVA. My question is - Is it worth paying OOS for Michigan undergrad engineering d...
by MarkRoulo
Thu Mar 25, 2021 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any decent trend following commodity options out there?
Replies: 14
Views: 1155

Re: Any decent trend following commodity options out there?

Let's not discuss the merits of "trend following commodities" as an asset class, if you're not interested or clicked the topic to lecture, save your breath. I've been searching for awhile for a decent trend following commodity fund/ETF. Which is difficult because many screeners don't have...
by MarkRoulo
Mon Mar 22, 2021 9:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Baylor, Auburn or ‘Bama?
Replies: 73
Views: 5262

Re: Baylor, Auburn or ‘Bama?

I was inspired by the WPI thread and wanted to check what’s Bogleheads’ verdict on national reputation of Baylor (Waco, Tx), Auburn (Auburn, AL) and ‘Bama (Tuscaloosa) for a business/IT major? My son likes Bbq, sweet tea, and he wants to leave California. UCs were brutal to us so they’re not an opt...
by MarkRoulo
Mon Mar 22, 2021 11:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to Deal with Worry of job loss and providing for family?
Replies: 127
Views: 10305

Re: How to Deal with Worry of job loss and providing for family?

Do anyone of you worry of a job loss or firing? How do you get over these worries when an employer can cut you loose at anytime? Do you diversify your income sources? I feel a lot of responsibility because I am the single earner for a family of 5 and I worry if I were to lose my income what would h...
by MarkRoulo
Sun Mar 21, 2021 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gaming Sector
Replies: 16
Views: 1388

Re: Gaming Sector

Competition. Not just within those businesses for market share and profit, but among stock market security speculators - whatever future chances of growth are expected for those stocks and underlying business, the price should already reflect that in what those shares are selling for relative to ot...
by MarkRoulo
Thu Mar 18, 2021 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Turning Up the Risk While Young
Replies: 23
Views: 1162

Re: Turning Up the Risk While Young

I have just invested 2.5% of my portfolio in a roughly equal split of small cap index funds (even split between US and ex-US) and Long Term Treasuries. I'm thinking about increasing this part of my portfolio up to 10% over the next year and then from there maybe up to 20%. I chose these assets beca...
by MarkRoulo
Thu Mar 18, 2021 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing at the very top in 2000 has still made one 7% a year over the past 21 years
Replies: 148
Views: 12361

Re: Investing at the very top in 2000 has still made one 7% a year over the past 21 years

... Since 1929 stock buybacks, which used to be illegal, have replaced dividends in many stocks. Money spent on buybacks becomes meaningless to stockholders who don't sell into those buybacks if the share price later tumbles. There's no compounding there. ... Money spent on buybacks from the perspe...
by MarkRoulo
Thu Mar 18, 2021 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing at the very top in 2000 has still made one 7% a year over the past 21 years
Replies: 148
Views: 12361

Re: Investing at the very top in 2000 has still made one 7% a year over the past 21 years

... I've seen articles saying that the 25 year thing is wrong and it was more like four when factoring in dividends and using real return (because of deflation). I'm not really sure how to verify it myself. I'd like to know the longest a crash ever took to recover in real terms, including divident ...
by MarkRoulo
Tue Mar 16, 2021 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule disputed (Again??!!)
Replies: 421
Views: 29872

Re: 4% rule disputed (Again??!!)

If you are going to make an argument from authority for this paper by citing Michael Finke's "renowned college", you should make the college clear: The American College of Financial Services. I'm not sure there's much value in making ad hominem arguments based on vague implications. Finke...
by MarkRoulo
Tue Mar 16, 2021 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule disputed (Again??!!)
Replies: 421
Views: 29872

Re: 4% rule disputed (Again??!!)

same story, initial bond yield argument. https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2021/03/15/the-false-promise-of-u-s-historical-returns-1#:~:text=Relying%20on%20only%20historical%20U.S.,%2Dthan%2Daverage%20equity%20returns. Just to clarify, the authors of the above articles are NOT some fringe...
by MarkRoulo
Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing at the very top in 2000 has still made one 7% a year over the past 21 years
Replies: 148
Views: 12361

Re: Investing at the very top in 2000 has still made one 7% a year over the past 21 years

My point in THIS thread was that market-timing is not required to do well. Even if we look at March 2000 - March 2020, we still got around 4.7% a year nominal return. That was the WORST case 20 year return in the past 50 years. That's pretty good. All the other years you invested did even better. ....
by MarkRoulo
Mon Mar 15, 2021 6:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is 7K mortgage a month too much for 13K (combined) post tax monthly income?
Replies: 101
Views: 8849

Re: Is 7K mortgage a month too much for 13K (combined) post tax monthly income?

Huh? I have a $1.9M house and drive a $20k Honda sedan. My neighbors have shinier toys, but really, it’s all a drop in the bucket compared to the house I was talking to your neighbors. You, sir, bought a house in the wrong neighborhood. :D VHCOL areas can be quite strange. My neighborhood is full o...
by MarkRoulo
Mon Mar 15, 2021 6:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is 7K mortgage a month too much for 13K (combined) post tax monthly income?
Replies: 101
Views: 8849

Re: Is 7K mortgage a month too much for 13K (combined) post tax monthly income?

Remember you’re not just buying a house, you’re building a lifestyle. So once you acquire the house, everything else you do has to be commensurate. Hope you’re prepared. Huh? I have a $1.9M house and drive a $20k Honda sedan. My neighbors have shinier toys, but really, it’s all a drop in the bucket...
by MarkRoulo
Sun Mar 14, 2021 12:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is 7K mortgage a month too much for 13K (combined) post tax monthly income?
Replies: 101
Views: 8849

Re: Is 7K mortgage a month too much for 13K (combined) post tax monthly income?

$7,000 a month is an outrageous amount of money. It will be an albatross around your family's neck for years if not decades. Even if you made twice the amount you do i wouldn't do it. I cannot understand why so many young people drown themselves in debt in order to "get ahead" by living i...
by MarkRoulo
Fri Mar 12, 2021 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Have commodities been fully debunked?
Replies: 37
Views: 3268

Re: Have commodities been fully debunked?

Tellurius wrote: Wed Mar 10, 2021 10:47 pm Commodity funds lose money over time, from what I understand
"Lost", not "lose." For some time-periods.

I think you will find this article useful: https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/0 ... portfolio/
by MarkRoulo
Fri Mar 12, 2021 11:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Index Universal Life for Cryonics
Replies: 52
Views: 5064

Re: Index Universal Life for Cryonics

If you want to fund this with a permanent life insurance policy, I'd use a guaranteed universal life. But I think buy term and invest the rest will work better. It's only $200K. Many bogleheads will leave far more than that behind. Thank you! I appreciate the feedback. It sounds like the latter com...
by MarkRoulo
Thu Mar 11, 2021 6:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I'm a newbie, follow BH investing, but feel left out during stock conversations
Replies: 50
Views: 4578

Re: I'm a newbie, follow BH investing, but feel left out during stock conversations

Hello BogleHeads, I'm 34 yrs old, I've so far 9 yrs of work experience, but for the first 5 yrs, I didn't sign up for 401K with my employer as I had to pay off my bank loan. I have 401k from the last 4 years, maxed out every year. I didn't know anything about growing my money or the better way to i...
by MarkRoulo
Thu Mar 11, 2021 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How has U.S outperformed International?
Replies: 133
Views: 10443

Re: How has U.S outperformed International?

I'm tired of hearing about buybacks blamed for everything.. buybacks are functionally the same as dividends, the capital gains tax is just deferred until the stock holder decides to sell. Both buybacks and dividends are a way for a company to annihilate un-needed cash while keeping the stockholders...
by MarkRoulo
Thu Mar 11, 2021 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How has U.S outperformed International?
Replies: 133
Views: 10443

Re: How has U.S outperformed International?

https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1000937/foreign-stocks-lost-decade Since 2009, Morningstar thinks the primary reason for US outperformance has been earnings growth, not valuations. Only the last 11 years of your period, but certainly a distinct factor from valuations. This article contains no ...
by MarkRoulo
Thu Mar 11, 2021 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How has U.S outperformed International?
Replies: 133
Views: 10443

Re: How has U.S outperformed International?

I think buybacks play a big role. Either they are not legal or rarely happen in Europe and Asia. There is no secret that buybacks have been a huge catalyst behind Apple's growth, for example. The company itself has not grown revenues that tremendously since 2015. Stock buybacks only help (in the lo...
by MarkRoulo
Thu Mar 11, 2021 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How has U.S outperformed International?
Replies: 133
Views: 10443

Re: How has U.S outperformed International?

Whatever is easiest for you. I just tossed out the top-5 as a hypothesis. Your rough numbers suggest that the hypothesis is *wrong*, but maybe has some truth to it. If the tech sector as a whole is ~70% to ~80% of the difference that would be very interesting ... even if the rough calculations won'...
by MarkRoulo
Thu Mar 11, 2021 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How has U.S outperformed International?
Replies: 133
Views: 10443

Re: How has U.S outperformed International?

Maybe this has been covered already, but it would be interesting to simply "back out" of the S&P500 the following five stocks: Apple Google Facebook Amazon Microsoft If the S&P500 with these stocks removed since, say, 2009, looks a lot like World ex-USA then we pretty much know wh...
by MarkRoulo
Thu Mar 11, 2021 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How has U.S outperformed International?
Replies: 133
Views: 10443

Re: How has U.S outperformed International?

Maybe this has been covered already, but it would be interesting to simply "back out" of the S&P500 the following five stocks: Apple Google Facebook Amazon Microsoft If the S&P500 with these stocks removed since, say, 2009, looks a lot like World ex-USA then we pretty much know wh...
by MarkRoulo
Thu Mar 11, 2021 11:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: iPad for reviewing documents, and what size?
Replies: 27
Views: 1489

Re: iPad for reviewing documents, and what size?

Part of my work involves reviewing medical records in PDF format. I was thinking of picking up an iPad to make it easier/more comfortable, rather than trying to read them on a desktop computer. Anyone use their iPad for something similar, and if so, what size did you get? The 12.9 seems a little un...
by MarkRoulo
Thu Mar 11, 2021 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How has U.S outperformed International?
Replies: 133
Views: 10443

Re: How has U.S outperformed International?

https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1000937/foreign-stocks-lost-decade Since 2009, Morningstar thinks the primary reason for US outperformance has been earnings growth, not valuations. Only the last 11 years of your period, but certainly a distinct factor from valuations. This article contains no ...
by MarkRoulo
Thu Mar 11, 2021 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do I explain to someone that higher valuations are not as high as they seem due to bond yield?
Replies: 60
Views: 4560

Re: How do I explain to someone that higher valuations are not as high as they seem due to bond yield?

I've never liked the idea of comparing equities to bonds like that because when bond yields give next to nothing, then you could justify owning stocks at essentially any valuation. Even 90 times earnings can be defended. For what it is worth, this is how the "Dow 36,000" book (published i...
by MarkRoulo
Thu Mar 11, 2021 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do I explain to someone that higher valuations are not as high as they seem due to bond yield?
Replies: 60
Views: 4560

Re: How do I explain to someone that higher valuations are not as high as they seem due to bond yield?

How do I explain to someone that higher valuations of stocks compared to historic measures are not as high as they seem due to bond yield being lower? Um ... stocks ARE valued highly by historic measures. But so are other investments (e.g. bonds). I wouldn't try to explain that stocks aren't highly...
by MarkRoulo
Wed Mar 10, 2021 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How has U.S outperformed International?
Replies: 133
Views: 10443

Re: How has U.S outperformed International?

I realise the U.S has a massive tech industry etc but looking at all the countries that international includes there are a lot of great international companies too, from Japan, Germany, U.K, France, Spain, Italy, Switzerland, Canada, Belgium, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore e...
by MarkRoulo
Tue Mar 09, 2021 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficient Market Theory
Replies: 7
Views: 660

Re: Efficient Market Theory

Good day, Bogleheads, Can anyone explain what the Efficient Market Hypothesis is all about? I recently came across the term in Boglehead's Guide to Investing. Would definitely like to get a better understanding of it in layman's terms. Thank you for your time. Mostly what other posters have said. I...
by MarkRoulo
Sun Mar 07, 2021 6:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Four Horsemen of Underperformance - Signs of Life
Replies: 29
Views: 3775

Re: The Four Horsemen of Underperformance - Signs of Life

I honestly don't remember if any of the other stocks were categorized as powerhouses in the 90s, but MSFT certainly was. It was almost like all of the FANG stocks rolled into one. Apple was a mere supplicant, with Jobs having to talk Gates into porting Office to OS X. Cisco. Going from memory, Cisc...
by MarkRoulo
Sun Mar 07, 2021 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Four Horsemen of Underperformance - Signs of Life
Replies: 29
Views: 3775

Re: The Four Horsemen of Underperformance - Signs of Life

Valuations do matter. That is the whole point of this thread. Maybe you could explain why you thought they were bargains when you bought them? Because if "valuations matter," but folks can't reliably value the companies then valuations can't be used. And so don't matter. Did you think the...
by MarkRoulo
Sun Mar 07, 2021 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Were You Around During Dotcom Bubble?
Replies: 266
Views: 20679

Re: Were You Around During Dotcom Bubble?

Yes, it'd be bad if something happened to Taiwan. Do note that there are also major fabs in South Korea, Arizona, Texas, New York, among other places tsmc putting $12B into Arizona: https://www.anandtech.com/show/15803/tsmc-build-5nm-fab-in-arizona-for-2024 Samsung putting $17B into a new Fab in th...
by MarkRoulo
Sun Mar 07, 2021 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Four Horsemen of Underperformance - Signs of Life
Replies: 29
Views: 3775

Re: The Four Horsemen of Underperformance - Signs of Life

I have often posted about the Four Horsemen of Underperformance, four stocks that I purchased in the early 2000's at "bargain" prices , four stocks that were darlings of the 1990's. These were AIG, GE, Microsoft, and Pfizer. All were disappointments after having been market leaders during...
by MarkRoulo
Thu Mar 04, 2021 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why 100% stocks and not use some put option writing?
Replies: 97
Views: 5832

Re: Why 100% stocks and not use some put option writing?

I keep hearing about 100% or even leveraged stock allocations. If one is that bullish long-term with stocks, then is put option writing (with collateral) a reasonable addition in place of some of the stocks (for example, 70% Stock/30% Putwrite)? I would think that some downside improvements over 10...