Search found 296 matches

by Enganerd
Thu Feb 29, 2024 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Final, Definitive Thread on Brokerage Transfer Bonuses
Replies: 7768
Views: 1351816

Re: The Final, Definitive Thread on Brokerage Transfer Bonuses

While Robinhood is a publicly traded company, Webull is much less transparent about its operations. But competition is always good. Yeah, but it's probably fine, right? :P šŸ‚šŸš€šŸ¤˜ Did you do both offers? :-P No, my IRA money isn't enough to exploit both. Now, once I get the old 401k sorted, game on. šŸš€ I've been biding my time, watching as y'all snap up these excellent offers. Because I expect a return of after-tax contributions from both of my 401ks, and I don't really want to deal with the mess that will make if I did a rollover to an IRA. Especially dealing with gutter ball brokerages Webull and Robinhood, who likely wouldn't even know what I'm talking about. šŸ¤¦ā€ā™‚ļø Just seeing these.... I am tempted. I have not taken advantage of a brokerage ...
by Enganerd
Sun Aug 27, 2023 7:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Favorite Movies - Name Five
Replies: 277
Views: 24215

Re: Favorite Movies - Name Five

[re Deliverance:] I just wish that one scene was dialed back quite a bit... Really makes it hard to mention that movie without folks immediately thinking about it. But I think that scene was necessary to provide the motivation for subsequent actions. Those subsequent actions were the heart of the psychological aspects of the movie and the basis of the award nominations: three Academy Award and five Golden Globe nominations. That scene probably was responsible for the movie not winning, other than the technical achievement award. People were uneasy about admitting their respect for the movie. In that sense the movie succeeded. Deliverance showed me that Burt Reynolds was a very good, serious, actor. Right, I'm not implying a change in plot....
by Enganerd
Sat Aug 26, 2023 8:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Favorite Movies - Name Five
Replies: 277
Views: 24215

Re: Favorite Movies - Name Five

1. Deliverance 2. Midnight Cowboy 3. The Big Lebowski 4. Easy Rider 5. The Godfather (most of them, anyway!) Sorry, but I can't limit myself to only five. :( First I'll second these made by previous posters: Casablanca (1942) All About Eve (1950) The African Queen (1951) The Day the Earth Stood Still (1951) North by Northwest (1959) My Fair Lady (1964) Deliverance (1972) Young Frankenstein (1974) Airplane (1980) The Shawshank Redemption (1994)... I want ā€‹to put all of these in my top 5 but they don't fit! On another day I might rearrange them. TIER I Princess Bride (wonderful, happy, tale) The Third Man (music and cinematography are hypnotic) Young Frankenstein Godfather I and II The Good, the Bad and the Ugly TIER II The Day of the Jackal...
by Enganerd
Fri Aug 25, 2023 8:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Favorite Movies - Name Five
Replies: 277
Views: 24215

Re: Favorite Movies - Name Five

Apocalypse Now
Deliverance
Goodfellas
Pulp Fiction
LOTR Trilogy

Honorable Mentions
Godfather I and II
Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas
Inglorious Bastards
Once Upon a time in Hollywood
Unforgiven
Bourne Identity
Braveheart
by Enganerd
Tue Aug 22, 2023 8:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 11151
Views: 2085899

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Heart of Darkness a Filmmaker's Apocalypse Now. Documentary on the filming of Apocalypse Now. Great for those that enjoyed the movie. I had never seen it and it brought more understanding of creativity and method (or lack there of) that went into the iconic film. It is available free on both youtube and the internet archive.org. Recommended for fans of the movie or Francis Coppola.
by Enganerd
Sun Aug 20, 2023 5:49 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wild Caught vs Farm Raised Fish
Replies: 92
Views: 10635

Re: Wild Caught vs Farm Raised Fish

If one consumes plenty of fish and was concerned about heavy metals, I believe it is fairly easy to ask your doctor to test for them in your next blood lab. Right? That's probably more effective than internet research regarding levels if different species or supplements.
by Enganerd
Sat Aug 19, 2023 5:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Sous Vide Eggs
Replies: 24
Views: 2661

Re: Sous Vide Eggs

I have not tried that. I love a perfectly poached egg with a soft yolk, hot or cold, individually or with toast or on a salad.

I have played with a sous vide and they are convenient. I liked the idea of buying individually vacuum sealed salmon fillets and using sous vide to have convenient perfectly cooked fish. But I was concerned that eating too much food prepared with Sous Vide would just expose myself and the family to more microplastics. Probably not something worth worrying about but it has stopped me from heavily utilizing.
by Enganerd
Fri Aug 18, 2023 8:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wild Caught vs Farm Raised Fish
Replies: 92
Views: 10635

Re: Wild Caught vs Farm Raised Fish

There are over 20 species of fish that are in the genus Sardina and may be referred to as sardines. Technically, the European pilchard is only called a sardine if under 6" in length. The Pacific pilchard also in the Sardina genus is just as legitimately a true sardine as the European pilchard. I would call the latter the original true sardine, not the only true sardine. You are replying to the third in a series of posts. Other fish have already been discussed. Costco's canned sardines are following the FAO rules for labeling. The "sardines" are Sardina pilchardus . The "Pacific sardines" are not. You don't have to read the fine print, the back of the label, or the website. You may not agree with the labeling rules,...
by Enganerd
Sun Oct 02, 2022 6:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are bonds safer than 100% equity indexing?
Replies: 55
Views: 4930

Re: Is "Stay The Course" dead?

The last year has been brutal for anyone following the "Stay the course" mantra, especially so for recent retirees. This recession must have been the most widely predicted and easily anticipated event in my 30 year investing career, and I'm kicking myself for not realizing that and selling everything a year ago. Sure I'll get the usual responses of "nobody knows nuthin" and "your risk tolerance was too high" and, and "how do you know when to get back in", and graphs showing that the market "always" goes up over a long enough timeframe, but this is of little comfort when you're down $k several hundred. Even being overweight bonds has not helped, as they have been crushed too, so asset alloca...
by Enganerd
Sun Aug 21, 2022 12:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HSA and Cafeteria Plan Reimbursement
Replies: 2
Views: 351

Re: HSA and Cafeteria Plan Reimbursement

Thanks, I figured it would not be allowed. I was going to pay with my HSA so technically the bill was not previously reimbursed. However, I expect the cafeteria plan has similar language which would not allow me to receive a distribution for a bill paid with a HSA.
by Enganerd
Sat Aug 20, 2022 7:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HSA and Cafeteria Plan Reimbursement
Replies: 2
Views: 351

HSA and Cafeteria Plan Reimbursement

I have funded an HSA for the past 9 years. This year I have a different plan without an HSA but have $ withheld in a cafeteria plan. Is it possible to use my HSA to pay a medical bill and also use the bill for distribution of funds held in the cafeteria plan. I cannot find anything stating I cannot but I would be using pretax HSA dollars to pay a medical bill and receive pretax dollars for reimbursement. It would mean the one invoice would allow me to use two different sources of pretax dollars, just not sure if that is alright. Thanks for any guidance.
by Enganerd
Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads
Replies: 328
Views: 24006

Re: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads

https://www.epsilontheory.com/in-praise-of-bitcoin/ Interesting piece from Ben Hunt. I like how he is taking a position that btc has value that is between the btc maximalists and the conservative investors/economists who dismiss it out of hand. Is this really why we got on the phone tonight? To talk about a novel form of digital rights management? To talk about payment transfers out of authoritarian third-world countries? Are these REALLY our questions about Bitcoin? Answer: of course not. What got these academic, think tank and government economists on the phone that night was Bitcoin trading at $50,000. The question that everyone truly cared about, but a question that everyone danced around for the better part of an hour, was this: Is th...
by Enganerd
Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads
Replies: 328
Views: 24006

Re: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads

https://www.epsilontheory.com/in-praise-of-bitcoin/ Interesting piece from Ben Hunt. I like how he is taking a position that btc has value that is between the btc maximalists and the conservative investors/economists who dismiss it out of hand. Is this really why we got on the phone tonight? To talk about a novel form of digital rights management? To talk about payment transfers out of authoritarian third-world countries? Are these REALLY our questions about Bitcoin? Answer: of course not. What got these academic, think tank and government economists on the phone that night was Bitcoin trading at $50,000. The question that everyone truly cared about, but a question that everyone danced around for the better part of an hour, was this: Is th...
by Enganerd
Wed Apr 21, 2021 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency
Replies: 187
Views: 18020

Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

This is a misrepresentation of the data. Every major crypto exchange, company, mining operation, entity, and yes, every person, has bitcoin in an address (or multiple addresses) on the Bitcoin blockchain. How do you know if that address is for Joe Smith, Coinbase, Deutsche Bank, or Tesla Motors? You don't. It's like counting Bank of America as one US dollar holder, the same as Joe Smith. Then saying the US dollar is way over-concentrated in the hands of a few based on counting Bank of America and Wells Fargo and the European Central Bank as "people," similar to Joe Smith. This is not my interpretation of data. It has been distributed in mid-Nov 2020 by Bloomberg based on a research done by Flipside Crypto who analysed the bitcoin...
by Enganerd
Wed Apr 21, 2021 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency
Replies: 187
Views: 18020

Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

Interesting fact about Bitcoin, not widely discussed, is the ultra-concentration of ownership. Around 95% of all minted Bitcoins are owned by 2% of Bitcoin holders!! Perhaps this alone explains the wild volatility on any given day. This is a misrepresentation of the data. Every major crypto exchange, company, mining operation, entity, and yes, every person, has bitcoin in an address (or multiple addresses) on the Bitcoin blockchain. How do you know if that address is for Joe Smith, Coinbase, Deutsche Bank, or Tesla Motors? You don't. It's like counting Bank of America as one US dollar holder, the same as Joe Smith. Then saying the US dollar is way over-concentrated in the hands of a few based on counting Bank of America and Wells Fargo and...
by Enganerd
Wed Apr 21, 2021 6:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads
Replies: 328
Views: 24006

Re: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads

Here is the btc debate between two macro analysts, Michael Green (btc bear) and Lyn Alden (bull). I enjoy listening to and reading both Mike and Lyn, and as usual I feel I agree a bit more with the skeptic although I still hold some btc. https://iextrading.com/podcast/ Geeze, an hour.... And with commercials. I need to find the transcript, because I'm sure I could read that in 15 minutes. If you find one, let me know. I listened to it and as someone who is always trying to consider the more nuanced bullish and bearish takes of btc there was nothing really ground breaking. But it was interesting to hear two intellectual, probabilistic and informed thinkers discuss the economics of btc. Green basically feels that it is simply a speculative a...
by Enganerd
Mon Apr 19, 2021 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency
Replies: 187
Views: 18020

Re: Help me get a basic education in cryptocurrency

OP, It sounds like you're approaching Bitcoin and cryptocurrency with a very healthy dose of skepticism, and in my opinion that is the way to go. It is pretty hard to find relatively unbiased crypto content these days. I have done a fair amount of reading and listening to podcasts, and I honestly wouldn't "recommend" any of it. I am a fan of Lyn Alden (lynalden.com), and she has a few good free articles (Bitcoin, Ethereum) on her website. Though she's bullish on Bitcoin, she seems to maintain a decent amount of skepticism. This is a good place to start: https://www.lynalden.com/misconceptions-about-bitcoin/. EDIT: I think Mike Green is a great Bitcoin skeptic to listen to (just Google him). He was recently on a Real Vision Networ...
by Enganerd
Mon Apr 19, 2021 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads
Replies: 328
Views: 24006

Re: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads

Here is the btc debate between two macro analysts, Michael Green (btc bear) and Lyn Alden (bull). I enjoy listening to and reading both Mike and Lyn, and as usual I feel I agree a bit more with the skeptic although I still hold some btc.

https://iextrading.com/podcast/
by Enganerd
Fri Apr 16, 2021 3:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If you hit your # would you retire in this market?
Replies: 124
Views: 17062

Re: If you hit your # would you retire in this market?

I became passionate about investing through FIRE ambitions. I have come to enjoy my job and security that comes from it but I still think about my original plans from time to time. This past year I blew past my old # based off 25x annual expenses but for some reason these gains do not feel secure. Even if I was still committed to FIRE I do not think I could pull the trigger in the current market. The fiscal and monetary response to COVID obviously inflated asset prices. It would seem practical to expect inflation. With fixed income offering low nominal rates it would be hard to expect real returns or appreciation. I know times are always unique and no one knows anything but I really think hitting in your number in 2016 would have felt much...
by Enganerd
Fri Apr 16, 2021 3:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If you hit your # would you retire in this market?
Replies: 124
Views: 17062

Re: If you hit your # would you retire in this market?

I became passionate about investing through FIRE ambitions. I have come to enjoy my job and security that comes from it but I still think about my original plans from time to time. This past year I blew past my old # based off 25x annual expenses but for some reason these gains do not feel secure. Even if I was still committed to FIRE I do not think I could pull the trigger in the current market. The fiscal and monetary response to COVID obviously inflated asset prices. It would seem practical to expect inflation. With fixed income offering low nominal rates it would be hard to expect real returns or appreciation. I know times are always unique and no one knows anything but I really think hitting in your number in 2016 would have felt much...
by Enganerd
Wed Apr 14, 2021 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!
Replies: 692
Views: 68607

Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Always good to check back here on occasion and measure sentiment. Glad to see few have grasped what is happening in crypto, and continue to refer to it as a bubble with no underlying value being created. Excellent! It means we still have a long way to go in this bull cycle. Carry on! Hi! I would LOVE an explanation, if you're willing to give it. I am definitely failing to grasp it. When you hear hordes of 20-35 YO talking about retirement by year's end, it's very difficult not to think bubble. I'm not the smartest man in the world, so it wouldn't be the first time I failed to grasp a sound idea! I bought $20-something of BTC back in October, and it's up to $120 this morning. Alas, the rest of my portfolio has not experienced similar growth...
by Enganerd
Wed Apr 14, 2021 7:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ā€œNew Bitcoin Investors Explain Why Theyā€™re Buying at Record Pricesā€œ
Replies: 936
Views: 80447

Re: ā€œNew Bitcoin Investors Explain Why Theyā€™re Buying at Record Pricesā€œ

I started with a 1% portfolio target for BTC. Then I added a little bit of ETH. Then they grew quickly by themselves and I started allocating more to them--now I am at 12% BTC/3% ETH. I think my reason for buying crypto made sense: it's a portfolio hedge as it is a noncorrelated asset, it's not dollar denominated and thus offsets some inflation risk, and it has the potential to be the base layer / platform for Web 3.0, which I'm sure will be huge. Every day I wake up and ask myself why I don't just sell the rest of my liquid portfolio (it's all in S&P 500 / Total US stock market) and buy more BTC. I fear that my urge is due to FOMO, but every way I look at it, BTC seems undervalued. Metcalfe's law implies a much higher valuation even t...
by Enganerd
Wed Apr 14, 2021 6:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!
Replies: 692
Views: 68607

Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

BTC and ETH are at all time highs today, yet no posts here. What kind of "Bitcoin Continues to Soar!" thread is this? lol Itā€™s been a good past 6 months being in cryptos. It has accelerated my retirement by several years. I continue to take profits while maintaining a 5-8% in both BTC and ETH. My other investments which is SPY and some individual stocks in my play account continue to do well also. Itā€™s virtually impossible not to make money in this environment. But thereā€™s a bit hollowness to all of this, at least thatā€™s how I feel about it. I canā€™t quite explain it, but I just have this concern that in about 3-4 years, my low-7 figure portfolio (assuming it stays that way) will be the least of my concerns. Well said. I veered fr...
by Enganerd
Sun Apr 11, 2021 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads
Replies: 328
Views: 24006

Re: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads

https://lexfridman.com/tyler-cowen/ Lex recently interviewed Tyler Cowen. They discuss btc at the 1:17 mark. Tyler takes bitcoin seriously as a collectible/store of value similar to gold's role in society. However, he is doubtful it will ever serve the role of money (which he points out is a an imprecise concept) or currency because of scalability issues. He seems like most bogleheads, in that he views the value as completely speculative. But being open to the fact it is taking some of gold's role in society I find it hard to imagine it decreases in price substantially in the mid term ~2-7 years or so. If 60 year old economists can view it as a SOV similar to gold I guarantee millennials and younger will definitely be quick to accept digit...
by Enganerd
Fri Apr 02, 2021 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule disputed (Again??!!)
Replies: 421
Views: 36625

Re: 4% rule disputed (Again??!!)

michaeljc70 wrote: ā†‘Fri Apr 02, 2021 7:06 pm
JBTX wrote: ā†‘Wed Mar 17, 2021 12:13 am
William Million wrote: ā†‘Tue Mar 16, 2021 10:41 pm Seems there's a cult-like subculture on Bogleheads insisting 4% SWR is too high. Seems to reflect the inherent conservatism of Bogleheads rather than any empirical studies.
What empirical studies have been done to demonstrate that 4% has a statistically significant success rate with starting interest rates below 3% and starting CAPES in the mid 30's?
I guess this time is different......Real rates (on the 10 year Treasury) have been lower and not that long ago (2013). I don't see how the nominal rate is relevant. Do you think the 70's was a good time to retire because interest rates were high?
Can we know real rates in real time or only with hindsight?
by Enganerd
Fri Apr 02, 2021 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads
Replies: 328
Views: 24006

Re: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads

Again not sure if you are objecting to this thread or not. Nothing jumps out at me as ridiculous, in fact it seems he is bring nuance to the btc community by expressing the crypto industry is smaller and less impactful than most in the community assume. Thanks for the reply, I'm simply trying to make what Bill Bernstein described as "independent judgments". https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1029437/bill-bernstein-on-why-gamestop-tesla-and-bitcoin-dont-reflect-the-wisdom-of-crowds I somewhat recently encountered Lyn Alden's articles. She presents a very clear headed approach to thinking about bitcoin, in much the way I think about it myself (but of course she is much smarter). Here are a few articles that are worth perusing; th...
by Enganerd
Fri Apr 02, 2021 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads
Replies: 328
Views: 24006

Re: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads

Again not sure if you are objecting to this thread or not. Nothing jumps out at me as ridiculous, in fact it seems he is bring nuance to the btc community by expressing the crypto industry is smaller and less impactful than most in the community assume. Thanks for the reply, I'm simply trying to make what Bill Bernstein described as "independent judgments". https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1029437/bill-bernstein-on-why-gamestop-tesla-and-bitcoin-dont-reflect-the-wisdom-of-crowds I definitely encourage independent judgement. Bernstein is my favorite financial writer. Bitcoin definitely fits plenty of generic hallmarks of a bubble. The interesting thing though is that pro bitcoin people who not deny that. As I have said previou...
by Enganerd
Fri Apr 02, 2021 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads
Replies: 328
Views: 24006

Re: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads

Lex Friedman interviewed another btc media producer, Nic Carter. Bolgeheads will probably find Nic's work more tolerable than Pomp's. He is pretty logical and reasonable. https://lexfridman.com/nic-carter/ Could you please give a summary of why you think this position is better that the first two? First off, he doesn't have red laser eyes. Second, it's difficult to take someone seriously that posts a video with comments about writing and notes "This is why you shouldnā€™t read books." https://thesoontimes.com/2021/03/05/very-strong-correlation-between-laser-eyes-and-being-an-idiot-new-research-shows/ (After reading a number of pro-bitcoin items recently, I find this more amusing than many articles from The Onion) https://twitter.co...
by Enganerd
Fri Apr 02, 2021 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads
Replies: 328
Views: 24006

Re: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads

Lex Friedman interviewed another btc media producer, Nic Carter. Bolgeheads will probably find Nic's work more tolerable than Pomp's. He is pretty logical and reasonable. https://lexfridman.com/nic-carter/
by Enganerd
Thu Apr 01, 2021 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads
Replies: 328
Views: 24006

Re: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads

Ayn Rand is big on survival of the fittest. Which, of course, by definition, means some people are left behind. I don't think the bitcoin enthusiasts really want to tear down the existing financial system to make the world better. I think they want to replace it with something nearly as bad, but with themselves on top. I get that impression often as well. There are some decent arguments that flaws in the current centralized system creates poor incentives that reward folks whom are not "fittest" in the terms of productivity in a free market. Therefore if the current system is supplanted and they are on top that is wonderful. I imagine the desire for immense personal wealth is at the heart of this motivation whether the bitcoin ent...
by Enganerd
Wed Mar 31, 2021 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads
Replies: 328
Views: 24006

Re: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads

They think it is going to continue increasing in market cap at he expense of gold and fixed income assets. How does something that generates no income replace fixed income? Basically the thought is that btc will keep rising. Interest rates will remain so low that fixed income is almost assuredly providing negative real returns. Some of the huge market cap to credit will transferred out of credit because well negative returns are not appealing and it makes it easier to speculate in something like btc. Which is claimed to be the adoption of new sound money and has amazing CAGR over its life. Definitely some assumptions and circular reasoning built into that position. But I think it is pretty hard to argue that negative real returns will push...
by Enganerd
Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads
Replies: 328
Views: 24006

Re: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads

I considered The Fountainhead and Atlas Shrugged entertaining fiction. I might label the books as a bit egomaniacal. Reading the encouragement for people to buy into BTC my focus is on how the system simply does not appear built to support what some proponents seem to claim. The purported value is built on scarcity, and encouraging people to buy into a scarce system simply drives up the price for new entrants. I can totally understand reasons for why an owner wants to drive up price, but I really don't understand how encouraging such a system benefits new low-income entrants on a significant scale. Ignoring things that are part of monetary policy, like demand and full employment, reads as a disingenuous dynamic for me, similar to holes I r...
by Enganerd
Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads
Replies: 328
Views: 24006

Re: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads

Did you read the 3 part Farrington write up? It's long but from my perspective it is the most reasonable write up on how btc maximalists rationalize a btc standard would be net beneficial for all. Basically the the current uncertainty about extent of inflation but knowing inflation exists biases people to poor economic decisions. I read Part 3 again. I don't really follow how it supports the idea of BTC as a standard necessarily being net beneficial for all, although encouraging BTC demand could be beneficial to early adopters. My bigger quibbles are with other parts, so my only real question here is to ask how BTC as monetary policy encourages full employment. I can understand the argument from a personal interest point of view, yet I'm n...
by Enganerd
Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads
Replies: 328
Views: 24006

Re: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads

Did you read the 3 part Farrington write up? It's long but from my perspective it is the most reasonable write up on how btc maximalists rationalize a btc standard would be net beneficial for all. Basically the the current uncertainty about extent of inflation but knowing inflation exists biases people to poor economic decisions. I read Part 3 again. I don't really follow how it supports the idea of BTC as a standard necessarily being net beneficial for all, although encouraging BTC demand could be beneficial to early adopters. My bigger quibbles are with other parts, so my only real question here is to ask how BTC as monetary policy encourages full employment. I can understand the argument from a personal interest point of view, yet I'm n...
by Enganerd
Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads
Replies: 328
Views: 24006

Re: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads

They think it is going to continue increasing in market cap at he expense of gold and fixed income assets. How does something that generates no income replace fixed income? Basically the thought is that btc will keep rising. Interest rates will remain so low that fixed income is almost assuredly providing negative real returns. Some of the huge market cap to credit will transferred out of credit because well negative returns are not appealing and it makes it easier to speculate in something like btc. Which is claimed to be the adoption of new sound money and has amazing CAGR over its life. Definitely some assumptions and circular reasoning built into that position. But I think it is pretty hard to argue that negative real returns will push...
by Enganerd
Tue Mar 30, 2021 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads
Replies: 328
Views: 24006

Re: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads

Thanks for the contributions. You seem certain regarding the lightning network. I need to do some more research, but I know of many that are deep in the technology, even setting up lightning channels themselves who still have confidence the lightning network will be big deal. In any case, Bitcoin is worthless even as a store of value without the lightning network, and if you do some research on that, you'll see that the future of the lightning network is quite iffy. I wouldn't bet $60k on Bitcoin if its utility is completely dependent on the lightning network pulling it off. But what's more, you need to at least open a channel yourself, one on chain transaction, to then use the lightning network. Now it takes 35 to 70 years again just to g...
by Enganerd
Tue Mar 30, 2021 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads
Replies: 328
Views: 24006

Re: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads

But I still am curious why your open minded tech friends who were pursuing the idea of separating money from governments have moved on from btc? I am speculating as I have not asked because it would start another crypto monologue :-) When you are seeing seven figures in your crypto account and can transfer that to "real" assets and more of the latest coin that Elon Musk or someone else is pumping, it could be hard to keep holding" Did you hear about the atheist, crossfitter, and bitcoiner who walked into a bar? I knew that because they told me within 2 minutes :D But if one was really interested in creating a large scale functioning digital money separated from nation states well I have to think btc is the leading horse in t...
by Enganerd
Tue Mar 30, 2021 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads
Replies: 328
Views: 24006

Re: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads

They believe btc could be this hard money which would become a SOV after enough adoption. So they "speculate" in btc in hopes that it helps achieve the ultimate status of hard money SOV. It is doubly appealing to them because it feels morally right to support a separation of money and state and to pursue a sound money economy and they hope to get rich. This probably explains my main issue with reading the referenced sources. Moral decisions do not necessarily correlate with personal wealth. Reading the sources presented it seems clear enough that self aggrandizement likely stands as a main goal for all their time spent on the topic. They appear to suggest the aim stands for others, yet if that is the case then I would want to beg...
by Enganerd
Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads
Replies: 328
Views: 24006

Re: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads

I go back and forth between wanting to sell to lock in gains and wanting to buy more because the use case for bitcoin remains the same What is the use case for bitcoin? What problem do I have that is solved by bitcoin? What problem do YOU have that is solved by bitcoin? To store and transfer value. The open source and decentralized manner removes what some perceive as risks to the current centralized system. I would not say we currently have a problem that is solved by bitcoin. I do not think their is a utopia, a perfect system for humans to coordinate economic activity in a way that provides the most benign productive incentives and is fair as possible. I do believe there are positive and negative trade-offs when pondering different syste...
by Enganerd
Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads
Replies: 328
Views: 24006

Re: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads

Much deleted ... Can Bitcoin become the next Gold? There is nothing to say it definitively can't. But people should understand the primary attraction of Bitcoin is the perception that somebody will eventually pay more for it. That's really it. Very true. And that is the quality the creator(s) wanted it to have. Digital, scarce, open source, decentralized means for anyone anywhere with internet to transfer value with it. Most people that buy and hold it obviously hope buy doing so when they spend it maintains or even increases in purchasing power. I want to poke at this a bit ... what quality are you referring to specifically? The hope that bitcoin increases in value?? Looking at Satoshi Nakamoto's original paper here is the introduction: C...
by Enganerd
Tue Mar 30, 2021 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads
Replies: 328
Views: 24006

Re: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads

To be clear, I am not a bitcoin maximalist or purist in any sense. I am not in it for some libertarian or anarchist kick or whatever. I support regulation of Bitcoin exchanges and the regulation of Bitcoin ETFs, and believe such regulation (and regulatory approval) to arrive soon. If that happens, I believe bitcoin will be traded much like gold is today--of speculative value, and perhaps emotional value to some maximalists, but with a real value due to diversification and hedging against inflation and other risks. I could absolutely be wrong on all of this, but I do not think that scalability of transactions is a factor in this form of wide adoption of bitcoin. Fair enough. I'm just expressing the fact that Bitcoin literally, mathematicall...
by Enganerd
Tue Mar 30, 2021 7:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads
Replies: 328
Views: 24006

Re: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads

I have learned most of what I know about investing and personal finance from this forum. It is by far the best forum I have found online. I recently was convinced by non-boglehead friends to look into bitcoin. I ended up buying some and tt has done well for me and now I go back and forth between wanting to sell to lock in gains and wanting to buy more because the use case for bitcoin remains the same and there have been no issues with the foundation (code, infrastructure, game theory, etc.) I enjoy seeing it discussed on this forum, as I still more naturally agree with skeptical takes. However, I think many bogleheads would benefit from opening their minds regarding the Bogle categorization of speculation. True it has no IRR (but that's no...
by Enganerd
Tue Mar 30, 2021 7:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads
Replies: 328
Views: 24006

Re: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads

I go back and forth between wanting to sell to lock in gains and wanting to buy more because the use case for bitcoin remains the same What is the use case for bitcoin? What problem do I have that is solved by bitcoin? What problem do YOU have that is solved by bitcoin? To store and transfer value. The open source and decentralized manner removes what some perceive as risks to the current centralized system. I would not say we currently have a problem that is solved by bitcoin. I do not think there is a utopia, a perfect system for humans to coordinate economic activity in a way that provides the most benign productive incentives and is fair as possible. I do believe there are positive and negative trade-offs when pondering different syste...
by Enganerd
Tue Mar 30, 2021 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads
Replies: 328
Views: 24006

Re: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads

Much deleted ... Can Bitcoin become the next Gold? There is nothing to say it definitively can't. But people should understand the primary attraction of Bitcoin is the perception that somebody will eventually pay more for it. That's really it. Very true. And that is the quality the creator(s) wanted it to have. Digital, scarce, open source, decentralized means for anyone anywhere with internet to transfer value with it. Most people that buy and hold it obviously hope buy doing so when they spend it maintains or even increases in purchasing power. I want to poke at this a bit ... what quality are you referring to specifically? The hope that bitcoin increases in value?? Looking at Satoshi Nakamoto's original paper here is the introduction: C...
by Enganerd
Sun Mar 28, 2021 6:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads
Replies: 328
Views: 24006

Re: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads

I do not know why you feel the new currency created in accord with an international agreement has an obvious advantage over bitcoin. Bitcoin has a head start in branding and market cap. It is open source and decentralized. Why would something more obscure created and controlled by an international organization obtain more trust and use from internet users? Potential advantages for use as an actual currency It would not face the same constraints to supply, thus reduce fluctuation It could avoid the impacts related to mining Trading profits based on currency fluctuations could be taxed (some of the attraction for early adopters has been the tax free profits) More transparency, at least the way that traditional finance measures transparency W...
by Enganerd
Sun Mar 28, 2021 6:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads
Replies: 328
Views: 24006

Re: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads

All the sheep pile into the highly speculative asset after they see some incredible outperformance and then some start thinking that it should be part of sensible long term strategy. Then the asset crashes and they dump their positions. Rinse, repeat. I said the same thing to friends and family that were buying and talking about it in winter of 2017. Then the price collapsed and they sold losing wealth. I was sorry for them but a bit proud of my boglehead education that allowed me to avoid the bubble and even warn them about the risk before the price collapse. Shortly after that another friend of mine, a very successful guy who knows more about finance, investing, and tech than I started talking to me about bitcoin. I was confused because ...
by Enganerd
Sun Mar 28, 2021 5:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads
Replies: 328
Views: 24006

Re: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads

as txhill has indicated, it can serve as digital gold and basically be a hedge against extreme volatility/disruption/mismanagement of the current monetary system. Right now, it's more volatile than the monetary systems it's hedging against. If Bitcoin's ultimate destiny is to become digital gold, why buy now? Why not wait until the volatility dies down to at least be similar to gold? Because I have opened up to the idea of being more active in a portfolio. I have looked into bitcoin and feels like a small allocation to my portfolio increases my expected portfolio performance. I moved beyond the very simple, yet effective, rules of bogelheads investing recommendations. Maybe I will eventually get overly confident from big gains, participate...
by Enganerd
Sun Mar 28, 2021 5:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads
Replies: 328
Views: 24006

Re: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads

It isn't a functional or efficient currency It is extremely volatile and ineffective store of value there are no limits as to how much how many other more efficient electronic currencies may be produced It consumes massive amounts of energy There is a distinct possibilty that governments try regulate it or ban it Does that mean it's going away? Not necessarily. Through sheer momentum it could become a digital form of gold. I make no predictions as to its future or its potential appreciation. I could be proven wrong long term. The bolded criticisms are specific criticisms I meant to to move bogleheads past. I keep seeing them repeated in every bitcoin thread and if you give more thought to the problem bitcoin intends to solve and the fact t...
by Enganerd
Sat Mar 27, 2021 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads
Replies: 328
Views: 24006

Re: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads

The world is becoming more online, culture is more effected by memes. The future in all likelihood will have more people spending more and more time and money online. Doesn't a non-nation based means of transferring value fill a need? If nothing else BTC is an interesting topic for currency discussions. In short answer to the question above, I do believe there is such a need and that one will eventually be developed by an international agreement. I have no reason to believe that it will be bitcoin. My friends who were early adopters of btc were computer programmers (I studied CIS about a million years ago) and/or libertarians looking for ways to play with a new idea that was intellectually stimulating, allowed them to avoid taxation/govern...
by Enganerd
Sat Mar 27, 2021 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads
Replies: 328
Views: 24006

Re: Bitcoin Resources for Patient/Curious Bogleheads

I think Bitcoin is worth a close look. I also had a knee-jerk reaction to it when I first heard about it in 2011, and thought the same in 2012, and so on right up until the past year or so. I now understand it is not a currency--I do not think it is likely to be used as a currency given scalability issues--but rather is a strong hedging instrument and is a sensible thing to add to a usual portfolio that is heavy in equities. I have long been 100% equities, which have done quite well obviously. But as I get older, I need to protect against volatility and inflation / US dollar risk and need something uncorrelated to equity markets. As an aside, I have a perhaps unreasonable concern with the risk of inflation. I understand the basic concepts ...