Search found 7202 matches

by Northern Flicker
Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ed Slott's new book NEW RETIREMENT SAVINGS TIME BOMB
Replies: 32
Views: 3470

Re: Ed Slott's new book NEW RETIREMENT SAVINGS TIME BOMB

Roth contributions are earned income and are taxed at your marginal rate during working years. It also would be suboptimal to use Roth withdrawals for tax-deductible expenses such as medical or long-term care expenses. The tax rate on future trad IRA withdrawals is a random variable. Having it taxed...
by Northern Flicker
Sat Apr 10, 2021 10:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 112
Views: 5149

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

A portfolio diversified with alts does not have to be expensive, and does not require an advisor charging an AUM fee:

https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-fu ... olio/vpgdx

I do not invest in VPGDX and have no idea if I would prefer it to a conventional portfolio.
by Northern Flicker
Sat Apr 10, 2021 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 112
Views: 5149

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

The nice thing about diversifying equity risk with a mix of treasuries and TIPS is that wildfires, hurricanes, weak advisor hands, long run of negative value premium etc. do not have to cooperate for equity risk to be diversified. When people talk about diversifying across multiple sources of risk a...
by Northern Flicker
Sat Apr 10, 2021 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How is it not QE when the Fed buys treasury bills?
Replies: 12
Views: 1347

Re: How is it not QE when the Fed buys treasury bills?

So, the main difference between buying t-bills and reverse repos is that, under reverse repos, the Fed is just temporarily buying bonds? Is that the only difference between the two? I don't have any more understanding of the repurchase agreement market than what you or I can read online, but the Fe...
by Northern Flicker
Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How is it not QE when the Fed buys treasury bills?
Replies: 12
Views: 1347

Re: How is it not QE when the Fed buys treasury bills?

:sharebeer In October 2019, the Federal Reserve said it would begin buying $60 billion of Treasury bills per month. How is this not classified as quantitative easing? I know that, normally, QE is carried out by buying long term bonds, not short term bills, but short term bills are still traded on pu...
by Northern Flicker
Fri Apr 09, 2021 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 112
Views: 5149

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

I had AVRPX right up until it went away. The new fund, SRDAX, I believe incorporates the strategy. If another fund were to arise, solely focused on the variance risk premium diversified across asset classes, I’d again be highly interested. The intuition behind the concept just seems so rock solid t...
by Northern Flicker
Fri Apr 09, 2021 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 112
Views: 5149

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

AVRPX - Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund 3 Month Return 1.71% YTD Return 0.70% 1 Year Return -21.17% 3 Year Return -10.78% 5 Year Return -3.02% This isn't the stuff that would make me want to jump out of an office building window. The point is that it was not delivering on its purpo...
by Northern Flicker
Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 112
Views: 5149

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

I'm sure Stone Ridge does their best to determine fair value when an investor deposits or withdraws from one of their funds, and I'm sure they do their best to value well assets that they purchase for the funds. Nonetheless, mispricing of less liquid assets is always a greater risk than it is for as...
by Northern Flicker
Thu Apr 08, 2021 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 112
Views: 5149

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

Transparency (i.e. lack thereof) is a major issue with interval funds. When assets are not very liquid, there is not an efficient market to price them, so that volatility is difficult to measure, and their effect on portfolio volatility is difficult to measure.
by Northern Flicker
Thu Apr 08, 2021 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 112
Views: 5149

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

Apparently lots of investors pulled out at one of the interval liquidation points. It was a levered portfolio, so this was like a big margin call. Residual investors and their assets were merged into another Stoneridge fund. Wasn't this an interval fund? If so, this theory being kicked around isn't...
by Northern Flicker
Thu Apr 08, 2021 2:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 112
Views: 5149

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

Apparently lots of investors pulled out at one of the interval liquidation points. It was a levered portfolio, so this was like a big margin call. Residual investors and their assets were merged into another Stoneridge fund.
by Northern Flicker
Thu Apr 08, 2021 12:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 112
Views: 5149

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

I think bottom line, the Alts were a disappointment but not a disaster. When investment funds are shut down, they tend to just disappear without much of a trace. They typically disappear from the provider web site and often disappear from investment return databases and datasets so that they stop s...
by Northern Flicker
Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Bogleheads’ Guide To Investing” Portfolios - 50% in TIPS?
Replies: 25
Views: 2986

Re: “Bogleheads’ Guide To Investing” Portfolios - 50% in TIPS?

TIPS have had a high correlation with corporate bonds. I would prefer 50% nominal treasuries and 50% TIPS to 50% total bond and 50% TIPS.
by Northern Flicker
Tue Apr 06, 2021 1:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I buy a SLR camera without a built in flash?
Replies: 90
Views: 3232

Re: Should I buy a SLR camera without a built in flash?

Hi, OP. I personally would prefer not to carry around a full frame DSLR and flash for most of these uses, given the size and weight of the equipment. It's also distracting for family and friends when you pull out a huge camera, and this tends to change the way your photos turn out - so usually, the...
by Northern Flicker
Tue Apr 06, 2021 12:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 112
Views: 5149

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

DaufuskieNate wrote: Sun Apr 04, 2021 11:29 am The VRP strategy is still included in the multi-alternative fund SRDAX.
I'm curious how beneficial that merger was for existing SRDAX investors.
by Northern Flicker
Tue Apr 06, 2021 12:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What’s the correct diversification for high inflation?
Replies: 204
Views: 16442

Re: What’s the correct diversification for high inflation?

By historical standards, the Fed seems to have alot of headroom for fighting inflation. I think the question is whether they can do it without causing a recession, or what balance they would strike between those outcomes.
by Northern Flicker
Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 112
Views: 5149

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

If everyone but you panic sells the ETF, then your performance is affected. I don't know a single investment that is actually completely insulated from the actions of other people. That would mean there's no market involved, no politicians involved, no counterparties involved. That is true, but it ...
by Northern Flicker
Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 112
Views: 5149

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

This!!!! Diversification is most likely to just be a drag on returns during calmer times. I wonder how many people, including institutional investors, understand how diversification can ultimately work. A drag on returns during calmer times and no big guarantee that correlations do not go to 1 in c...
by Northern Flicker
Mon Apr 05, 2021 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 112
Views: 5149

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

Yes. Certainly, when I bought the fund I was informed that was a risk. More generally, we all appreciate the tenet that correlations go to 1 in a crisis. We usually see the benefits of diversification in a more subtle fashion during calmer times. I don’t think I’m spinning or revising. Now I'm conf...
by Northern Flicker
Mon Apr 05, 2021 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 112
Views: 5149

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

Mutual funds and ETFs can have liquidity issues and the analogue of a run on the bank, sure. But ultimately your liquidity risk is the liquidity risk of the underlying assets (or a little less than that if the fund maintains a cash position in liquid instruments). Intermediate-term treasury ETFs lik...
by Northern Flicker
Mon Apr 05, 2021 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 112
Views: 5149

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

One of the last things I would want as a "diversifier" of equity risk is something designed to tank when equity volatility spikes even if it never blew up due to liquidity problems.
by Northern Flicker
Mon Apr 05, 2021 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 112
Views: 5149

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

As you know AVRPX was basically selling volatility insurance. So as expected, when volatility spiked early 2020 it took a hit just like the equity markets did. I've been trying to understand this. Shouldn't a product properly designed to insure a portfolio against volatility be hitting its sweet sp...
by Northern Flicker
Mon Apr 05, 2021 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Five Factor Investing with ETFs
Replies: 59
Views: 4457

Re: Five Factor Investing with ETFs

Super helpful! Thanks! Interesting that they are looking to make SCV about 25% of the portfolio. I'm assuming they are considering the portion of total market indexes (i.e. VTI and VXUS) that are weighted to SCV in addition to the SCV specific funds? The way I see it a portfolio of 50% VTI/VXUS and...
by Northern Flicker
Mon Apr 05, 2021 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Five Factor Investing with ETFs
Replies: 59
Views: 4457

Re: Five Factor Investing with ETFs

The US part of the portfolio has a factor tilt. The non-US part does not. Looking at the US part, you have a fairly even balance between exposure to size, value, and quality: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/factor-analysis?s=y&regressionType=2&sharedTimePeriod=true&factorDataSet=2&am...
by Northern Flicker
Mon Apr 05, 2021 12:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 112
Views: 5149

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

Limiting withdrawals to specific intervals can just make things worse-- it concentrates withdrawal demand accrued over an extended illiquidity period into a narrow period. For my own purposes, an investment product that requires other investors who invest in the product to stay the course for me to ...
by Northern Flicker
Sun Apr 04, 2021 10:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 112
Views: 5149

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

I think it is uncommon for an investment with a 2% expense ratio to be a good bond substitute. I wasn’t completely replacing my bonds. As I was decreasing my overall equity exposure, I decided to place a portion in the alternative instead of bonds in an effort to increase portfolio expected return,...
by Northern Flicker
Sun Apr 04, 2021 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 112
Views: 5149

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

nedsaid wrote: Nothing wrong with the concepts or the structure, it was investor behavior that was the problem.
The investments lacked the liquidity to support investor withdrawal demand adequately.
by Northern Flicker
Sun Apr 04, 2021 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 112
Views: 5149

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

I think it is uncommon for an investment with a 2% expense ratio to be a good bond substitute. What I've seen with alts, and for that matter most investments other than treasuries and t-bills is that when liquidity is in short supply, liquidity risk materializing dominates the short-term return so ...
by Northern Flicker
Sun Apr 04, 2021 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 112
Views: 5149

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

I think it is uncommon for an investment with a 2% expense ratio to be a good bond substitute. What I've seen with alts, and for that matter most investments other than treasuries and t-bills is that when liquidity is in short supply, liquidity risk materializing dominates the short-term return so t...
by Northern Flicker
Sun Apr 04, 2021 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 112
Views: 5149

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

The concept of realized volatility generally being lower than implied volatility because investors are willing to pay a premium for the insurance makes perfect intuitive sense to me. Anyone who invested in it should have expected the correlation to equities to go right to 1 when equity markets tank...
by Northern Flicker
Sun Apr 04, 2021 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 112
Views: 5149

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

I believe we were rolled into a new fund called SRDAX: Stone Ridge Diversified Alternative Fund. Supposedly it is some sort of multi alternative fund that incorporates the variance risk premium of AVRPX as one of its strategies. I do not believe though that BAM is recommending SRDAX. I believe BAM ...
by Northern Flicker
Sun Apr 04, 2021 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 112
Views: 5149

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

No idea, but I find the name of that fund amusing. I'm sure it's appealing to some, but I got a laugh out of it. The name looks like a satirical joke of all the buzz-words a finance sales guy would say that would signal "avoid" to me. Here is some more info on variance risk premium: https...
by Northern Flicker
Sat Apr 03, 2021 7:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Major International Indexes
Replies: 16
Views: 1318

Re: Major International Indexes

Bogleheads - A colleague and I were talking about the major indexes to gauge what the markets have done in any given day. From a broad level perspective. The US is easy - Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 (whiteout drilling down into many of the other indexes). The question became “What about internatio...
by Northern Flicker
Sat Apr 03, 2021 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In what condition, will international significantly overperform US?
Replies: 170
Views: 12376

Re: In what condition, will international significantly overperform US?

The risk that US equities may underperform over long horizons is not just a theoretical risk. It happened over the last 50 years. Templeton Global Growth Fund vs S&P500: http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=teplx&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A11%2C%22version%22%3A%22US%22%2C%22s...
by Northern Flicker
Sat Apr 03, 2021 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In what condition, will international significantly overperform US?
Replies: 170
Views: 12376

Re: In what condition, will international significantly overperform US?

The risk that US equities may underperform over long horizons is not just a theoretical risk. It happened over the last 50 years. Templeton Global Growth Fund vs S&P500: http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=teplx&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A11%2C%22version%22%3A%22US%22%2C%22sh...
by Northern Flicker
Sat Apr 03, 2021 1:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career advice for high schooler with HFA & difficulty with math
Replies: 63
Views: 5527

Re: Career advice for high schooler with HFA & difficulty with math

What careers would pay reasonably well ("middle class pay", so to speak) and are suitable for individuals with high functioning autism? This high schooler struggles with mathematics (too abstract, she says) & tends to avoid social interaction (although she can "handle them",...
by Northern Flicker
Fri Apr 02, 2021 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In what condition, will international significantly overperform US?
Replies: 170
Views: 12376

Re: In what condition, will international significantly overperform US?

Unless you hold non-US equities at world market cap or greater, you should be hoping for US outperformance. I hold US equities at 75% of equities. This is assuming that US equities will do well, but diversifying the risk that they fail to do so. Success of the strategy is not synonymous with non-US...
by Northern Flicker
Thu Apr 01, 2021 11:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How are foreign bonds affected by US inflation
Replies: 7
Views: 644

Re: How are foreign bonds affected by US inflation

If US short term rates go higher due to inflation, then so will the hedge yield on international bonds (assuming they don't see a similar rise). If the US experiences more robust inflation than other countries, then short-term rates will rise in the US in relation to short-term rates in other count...
by Northern Flicker
Thu Apr 01, 2021 11:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In what condition, will international significantly overperform US?
Replies: 170
Views: 12376

Re: In what condition, will international significantly overperform US?

Unless you hold non-US equities at world market cap or greater, you should be hoping for US outperformance. I hold US equities at 75% of equities. This is assuming that US equities will do well, but diversifying the risk that they fail to do so. Success of the strategy is not synonymous with non-US ...
by Northern Flicker
Thu Apr 01, 2021 10:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: EMB what asset class?
Replies: 40
Views: 1898

Re: EMB what asset class?

Liquidity has improved for both EM and FM. FM is now more similar to EM of 18-20 years ago than to FM of 8 years ago. A high sector concentration in banks and telecom providers, and heightened potential for liquidity or currency problems were typical of EM 18 years ago and are typical of FM today. ...
by Northern Flicker
Thu Apr 01, 2021 10:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does this Roth IRA investment change make sense for me?
Replies: 5
Views: 410

Re: Does this Roth IRA investment change make sense for me?

Hello, I have a Roth IRA with Fidelity that I've been investing in for about 4-5 years now. I'm 33 and plan on about 30 more years of socking away money into this account. Currently in the account I have FSKAX and FTIHX. Does it make sense for more to put money into a different total stock market f...
by Northern Flicker
Thu Apr 01, 2021 12:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: EMB what asset class?
Replies: 40
Views: 1898

Re: EMB what asset class?

The ishares ETF FM is an FM index fund but it also includes some EM. Almost 20% of it is allocated to equities in Kuwait, which are classified as EM, at least by FTSE Russell, and are included in VWO and (presumably) VXUS. Equities from Kuwait, Vietnam, and Morocco are nearly 50% of the FM ETF holdi...
by Northern Flicker
Thu Apr 01, 2021 12:39 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Understanding the 5 year rule for Roth Conversions - a hypo and clarification request
Replies: 13
Views: 1536

Re: Understanding the 5 year rule for Roth Conversions - a hypo and clarification request

What I am primarily unclear about is what the taxpayer can do from age 59.5 - 64 based on the conversions described above from 55 - 59. Specifically, at age 59.5, . . . . At 59.5 and Roth 5 years old or longer, regardless of how the funds got there or when, the Roth is fully qualified (no taxes no ...
by Northern Flicker
Wed Mar 31, 2021 11:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How are foreign bonds affected by US inflation
Replies: 7
Views: 644

Re: How are foreign bonds affected by US inflation

Vanguard's international bond fund is hedged to the US dollar, so it doesn't provide any inflation protection. If the dollar falls against the euro, investors in euro bonds in this fund will only get the same number of dollars. This is not the whole picture. If the US experiences more robust inflat...
by Northern Flicker
Wed Mar 31, 2021 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: EMB what asset class?
Replies: 40
Views: 1898

Re: EMB what asset class?

Use it in place of EM Equity, if you like to classify it. Do not own both EM equity and EM bonds, it should take the place of your entire EM investment. Lower risk than EM Equity. There is no reason EM equity and EM bonds need to be mutually exclusive. The risk of EM bonds needs to be considered an...
by Northern Flicker
Wed Mar 31, 2021 9:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Major International Indexes
Replies: 16
Views: 1318

Re: Major International Indexes

Bogleheads - A colleague and I were talking about the major indexes to gauge what the markets have done in any given day. From a broad level perspective. The US is easy - Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 (whiteout drilling down into many of the other indexes). The question became “What about internatio...
by Northern Flicker
Wed Mar 31, 2021 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: EMB what asset class?
Replies: 40
Views: 1898

Re: EMB what asset class?

Use it in place of EM Equity, if you like to classify it. Do not own both EM equity and EM bonds, it should take the place of your entire EM investment. Lower risk than EM Equity. There is no reason EM equity and EM bonds need to be mutually exclusive. The risk of EM bonds needs to be considered an...
by Northern Flicker
Wed Mar 31, 2021 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: EMB what asset class?
Replies: 40
Views: 1898

Re: EMB what asset class?

Use it in place of EM Equity, if you like to classify it. Do not own both EM equity and EM bonds, it should take the place of your entire EM investment. Lower risk than EM Equity. There is no reason EM equity and EM bonds need to be mutually exclusive. The risk of EM bonds needs to be considered an...