Search found 35467 matches

by dbr
Sat May 08, 2021 7:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 55:45 vs 75:25
Replies: 8
Views: 942

Re: 55:45 vs 75:25

The only practical way I know to evaluate where a plan like this stands is to use retirement models that consider future returns statistically and project a range of outcomes. It is pretty easy to set up models that compare one broad asset allocation to another such as you have. My go-to example of...
by dbr
Sat May 08, 2021 6:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Critique my dividend stock strategy
Replies: 21
Views: 954

Re: Critique my dividend stock strategy

What you are proposing is so different from holding bonds it is not clear that "better" even means anything. The point is that when you do that you change so many important properties of your portfolio that it is a complete re-do to decide of it is better or not, depending on what fraction...
by dbr
Sat May 08, 2021 5:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to determine where to place bond holdings?
Replies: 10
Views: 440

Re: How to determine where to place bond holdings?

This article in the Wiki addresses this for a starter: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Tax-eff ... _placement

There can be nuances and all things tax are in the details.
by dbr
Sat May 08, 2021 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Ever Happened to "Your Age In Bonds"?
Replies: 74
Views: 4041

Re: What Ever Happened to "Your Age In Bonds"?

Bonds are return killers. That’s why. I’ve never followed that advice because it’s STUPID and I’d rather beat the S&P, not cruise up underneath. Age has little to do with the calculation. When you retire you still have 20-30 years worth of returns, and you don’t want to deplete principle. With ...
by dbr
Sat May 08, 2021 4:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 55:45 vs 75:25
Replies: 8
Views: 942

Re: 55:45 vs 75:25

The only practical way I know to evaluate where a plan like this stands is to use retirement models that consider future returns statistically and project a range of outcomes. It is pretty easy to set up models that compare one broad asset allocation to another such as you have. My go-to example of ...
by dbr
Sat May 08, 2021 3:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Door frame damaged - Don't want to replace door
Replies: 7
Views: 751

Re: Door frame damaged - Don't want to replace door

I think you need more diagnosis. If this is a metal frame and it is bent, then you need a new frame at least. Maybe the door would fit the new frame if the right parts are located. If the damage is that the hinges have been bent, then it might be you could replace the hinges with identical replaceme...
by dbr
Sat May 08, 2021 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Target Date Fund + TIPS Fund
Replies: 7
Views: 900

Re: Vanguard Target Date Fund + TIPS Fund

I appreciate the replies. My wife and I are considering forgetting about adding a TIPS fund and just sticking with the Target Date Fund. TIPS in your working years do have limited value as some have explained. And if the Vanguard portfolio experts have decided to leave TIPS out of their Target Date...
by dbr
Sat May 08, 2021 1:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: No Tax Event - 401K Trades
Replies: 3
Views: 306

Re: No Tax Event - 401K Trades

There can be a tax implication if the asset sold is company stock granted as part of the company contribution or profit or performance sharing. The consideration is permanent loss of a potential tax benefit under a rule called "Net Unrealized Appreciation." But this is an esoteric rule tha...
by dbr
Sat May 08, 2021 1:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Trust investments
Replies: 12
Views: 580

Re: Trust investments

There is no reason to bucket asset allocations to correspond to when the distributions are to be made. The asset allocation should match the life time needs of the beneficiaries. For ages up to 30 years I would probably put the whole trust in stock index funds. Note that TD funds for the retirements...
by dbr
Sat May 08, 2021 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Ever Happened to "Your Age In Bonds"?
Replies: 74
Views: 4041

Re: What Ever Happened to "Your Age In Bonds"?

Risk/benefit balance favored investment in bonds during the 40 year bull market in bonds. Fed policy favored bonds with its gradual decline in interest rates from 16% to less than 2% over that period. The late Marty Zweig's mantra was "Don't fight the Fed." Relatively high bond allocation...
by dbr
Sat May 08, 2021 12:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Adding More Bonds Near Retirement - Which Duration?
Replies: 6
Views: 846

Re: Adding More Bonds Near Retirement - Which Duration?

For sure it is not the time to retirement. The right time line is the duration until death. If you accept a duration/liability matching idea then seemingly someone not yet retired would apparently add only long bonds. I personally would not address "should" so much as "suitable" ...
by dbr
Sat May 08, 2021 12:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fixed Fee Advice
Replies: 7
Views: 353

Re: Fee Based Advice

I agree that it is unlikely an insurance salesman is actually knowledgeable of the things you need addressed, but it could be.

Be aware that an insurance product has a high probability of being one of the solutions offered, but I guess one should not be so cynical.
by dbr
Sat May 08, 2021 12:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tips to convince my Dad about Index Funds?
Replies: 52
Views: 2660

Re: Tips to convince my Dad about Index Funds?

If your dad may be more receptive to advice from others (like Buffett) ... https://youtu.be/9BOefaL-RPI Wonderful. And here is the picture of the other side: https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=johm+housemann+for+smith+barney&qpvt=johm+housemann+for+smith+barney&view=detail&mid=8814102...
by dbr
Sat May 08, 2021 12:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fixed Fee Advice
Replies: 7
Views: 353

Re: Fee Based Advice

I think it would cost that much to come up with a well thought through plan for a person's individual situation considering the kinds of things you want addressed. A professional advisor operating as a business might charge from $200 to $300 per hour and might apply ten or more hours to the work. It...
by dbr
Sat May 08, 2021 10:19 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retirees: Monthly vs Quarterly vs Annual Distributions
Replies: 72
Views: 4101

Re: Retirees: Monthly vs Quarterly vs Annual Distributions

On the other hand there is the opportunity cost, specifically the lost returns because of always having the (for examp!e) $100k not invested in anything. If retired why assume that the market will be down when the emergency occurs? No, no, I'm not going there. Not going to play that mental game to ...
by dbr
Sat May 08, 2021 10:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with cash?
Replies: 10
Views: 1297

Re: What to do with cash?

I would start by learning about the basic concepts of asset allocation and asset location for tax efficiency. Picking actual funds is a last step. Also why do you think holdings in funds such as VDADX, etc. will fall by a third if interest rates go up some. Actually those stock funds could fall by t...
by dbr
Sat May 08, 2021 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please review small value tilt portfolio
Replies: 23
Views: 1376

Re: Please review small value tilt portfolio

If you don’t buy into Fama French or are bothered by market tracking, just stick with pure beta. Otherwise, follow Swedroe all-in. But the modest, annualized upside to SCV doesn’t justify the nuisance of minimal tilts. I've gone with equity strategy since 2008 (fixed income is separate -- this is j...
by dbr
Sat May 08, 2021 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Ever Happened to "Your Age In Bonds"?
Replies: 74
Views: 4041

Re: What Ever Happened to "Your Age In Bonds"?

The Bengen and Trinity studies that give us “safe” withdrawal rates show that likelihood of success falls off if equity allocation is too low, especially for longer retirements. Early retirements and improvements in life expectancy should logically lead to higher equity allocation. Age in bonds is ...
by dbr
Sat May 08, 2021 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Ever Happened to "Your Age In Bonds"?
Replies: 74
Views: 4041

Re: What Ever Happened to "Your Age In Bonds"?

I imagine age in bonds is less often mentioned on this forum to the degree people become more familiar with and use withdrawal studies that don't really support that formula. The problem of retiring on too little in stocks is mentioned above. I don't know if recommending more nuanced thinking such a...
by dbr
Sat May 08, 2021 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Confused about dividend investing, market downturns and early retirement
Replies: 67
Views: 3843

Re: Confused about dividend investing, market downturns and early retirement

I recall reading a paper I can't find now in which an attempt was made to document the actual drop in share price ex div against market noise. The result was that the authors believe the data shows that stock prices drop by the after tax value of the dividend, given some effort taken to estimate wha...
by dbr
Sat May 08, 2021 9:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tips to convince my Dad about Index Funds?
Replies: 52
Views: 2660

Re: Tips to convince my Dad about Index Funds?

Hi there, First time poster. I am trying to convince my Dad (retired) to invest majority of his portfolio in Index Funds. I got him to test the waters by investing approx $60K with Vanguard Advisor Services. They set him up with a 60/40 portfolio of Stocks (VTI) & Bonds (BND). That sort of expe...
by dbr
Sat May 08, 2021 8:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What's It Really Like to Work With Vanguard's Personal Advisory Service?
Replies: 121
Views: 10501

Re: What's It Really Like to Work With Vanguard's Personal Advisory Service?

I am new to this board. Are the three funds some of you reference Vanguard's Total Stock Market, Total International Stock Market and Total Bond Market? Yes, but see many discussions such as the 65 pages of posts here: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=88005 and the Wiki page here: h...
by dbr
Sat May 08, 2021 8:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity says I am in good shape with a 5% withdrawal. Living to 85 starting at 55. What do you think?
Replies: 60
Views: 8497

Re: Fidelity says I am in good shape with a 5% withdrawal. Living to 85 starting at 55. What do you think?

I think the best way to address choosing a withdrawal rate that is predicted by some model to have a small but not zero of failure is to understand what the plan is if that failure actually might materialize. This is not different from having a plan where the chance of failure is zero but having fai...
by dbr
Sat May 08, 2021 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard PAS - Long Term Bonds?
Replies: 30
Views: 2022

Re: Vanguard PAS - Long Term Bonds?

Sorry I don't understand why the PAS advisor did not explain the proposed asset allocation to you to your satisfaction and answer this question for you. I recommend you speak with him again and discuss your concerns and have him come up with an asset allocation you understand and can live with. We ...
by dbr
Sat May 08, 2021 8:10 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: New to Post-Tax investing: Ideas
Replies: 10
Views: 681

Re: New to Post-Tax investing: Ideas

The steps to incorporate post tax long term investing are basically two: 1. Recognize that all your assets together are a single portfolio with a definite asset allocation which will be rebalanced. 2. Locate the various assets for best tax efficiency considering the different tax treatments in Roth...
by dbr
Fri May 07, 2021 9:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Three Fund Portfolio in context of multiple accounts
Replies: 10
Views: 1016

Re: Three Fund Portfolio in context of multiple accounts

The assets of a specific three fund asset allocation should be located in accounts of different tax treatment for best tax advantage. It sounds like you have already figured that out. Here is a Wiki article on that: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Tax-efficient_fund_placement There are people who do...
by dbr
Fri May 07, 2021 8:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Re-balancing-Reducing risk
Replies: 9
Views: 729

Re: Re-balancing-Reducing risk

You have already chosen an array of fixed income holdings. The obvious path to reallocate out of stocks is to put the proceeds proportionately in the existing investments. What is giving rise to the question? I would like to work down to something like 30/70 in a couple of years to reduce sequence ...
by dbr
Fri May 07, 2021 8:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Maintain AA in tIRA only vs across tIRA and Roth
Replies: 11
Views: 759

Re: Maintain AA in tIRA only vs across tIRA and Roth

... A first question would be do you really mean that you have designated your son as the beneficiary on the Roth but he is not a beneficiary or heir under will to anything else you own? My son is the sole beneficiary of the Roth accounts and everything else. My question is specific to AA across ta...
by dbr
Fri May 07, 2021 6:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: New to Post-Tax investing: Ideas
Replies: 10
Views: 681

Re: New to Post-Tax investing: Ideas

The steps to incorporate post tax long term investing are basically two: 1. Recognize that all your assets together are a single portfolio with a definite asset allocation which will be rebalanced. 2. Locate the various assets for best tax efficiency considering the different tax treatments in Roth,...
by dbr
Fri May 07, 2021 6:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Maintain AA in tIRA only vs across tIRA and Roth
Replies: 11
Views: 759

Re: Maintain AA in tIRA only vs across tIRA and Roth

There is no reason in principle to not carry two portfolios for different purposes and to invest them with a different asset allocation and in different kinds of accounts. It might be a harder problem to show that this results in either the optimum, meaning maximum, legacy for your son or that it pr...
by dbr
Fri May 07, 2021 6:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Re-balancing-Reducing risk
Replies: 9
Views: 729

Re: Re-balancing-Reducing risk

You have already chosen an array of fixed income holdings. The obvious path to reallocate out of stocks is to put the proceeds proportionately in the existing investments. What is giving rise to the question?
by dbr
Fri May 07, 2021 6:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best short-term bond fund in a taxable account
Replies: 7
Views: 884

Re: Best short-term bond fund in a taxable account

Do you mean you want distributions as large as can be found or as small as can be found?

The lowest would be a money market fund and the highest might be something like short term investment grade VFSUX or VCSH ETF. Other options are CDs and MYGA's.
by dbr
Fri May 07, 2021 5:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much do you trust FIRECalc?
Replies: 17
Views: 2057

Re: How much do you trust FIRECalc?

These sorts of things should be helpful for insight into what one is doing with investments.
by dbr
Fri May 07, 2021 5:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Overweighted in Aggressive Growth
Replies: 10
Views: 707

Re: Overweighted in Aggressive Growth

If you want to match the domestic market it is probably simplest to just buy an index fund that targets the total marker index. If that is not convenient or available you can attempt to combine funds that have the same nine box stock style. Combinations of S&P 500, midcaps, and small caps are kn...
by dbr
Fri May 07, 2021 3:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Overweighted in Aggressive Growth
Replies: 10
Views: 707

Re: Overweighted in Aggressive Growth

I tried to track down some definitions of Stock Type and could find these snippets: "Stock Type: Our unique classifications , ranging from high yield to speculative growth, help you better understand if holdings match your investment style." Do you know what your investment style is? Note ...
by dbr
Fri May 07, 2021 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Confused about dividend investing, market downturns and early retirement
Replies: 67
Views: 3843

Re: Confused about dividend investing, market downturns and early retirement

For a long term retirement, you probably want to look at "perpetual" withdrawal rates which are often in the 3-3.5% range depending on the portfolio. Does that incorporate Social Security at all? If one expects to receive substantial Social Security 10-20 years after retirement, wouldn’t ...
by dbr
Fri May 07, 2021 3:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much do you trust FIRECalc?
Replies: 17
Views: 2057

Re: How much do you trust FIRECalc?

One should also keep in mind that what one actually holds may not be exactly represented in the data set FireCalc uses. There are all kinds of tilts and combinations an investor today might choose and even assets that didn't exist over most of the historic periods. If you are heavily invested in for...
by dbr
Fri May 07, 2021 1:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Overweighted in Aggressive Growth
Replies: 10
Views: 707

Re: Overweighted in Aggressive Growth

I think you may misunderstand what M* is talking about. I am not real familiar with their terminology but that language is often used for blend funds of stocks and bonds to report the stock/bond ratio. High allocations to stocks are "aggressive growth" and a low allocation to stocks would ...
by dbr
Fri May 07, 2021 12:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is this a wash sale? Selling VTSAX in Roth IRA and buying VTSAX in taxable account
Replies: 14
Views: 1178

Re: Is this a wash sale? Selling VTSAX in Roth IRA and buying VTSAX in taxable account

I think it is also handy to note, as Livesoft so often reminds us, that a wash sale is not an 'offense' when done. It just eliminates the ability to claim the loss on your taxes. You will not find yourself in leg irons for doing one. ah. I just remember seeing it's forbidden to rebuy VTSAX within 3...
by dbr
Fri May 07, 2021 12:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advisor fees and Allocation
Replies: 3
Views: 259

Re: Advisor fees and Allocation

What do the managers do that you would otherwise have to do? By fee do you mean an actual management fee or are you simply reporting the expense ratios. I am not familiar with a Vanguard managed account as such. Do you mean VPAS (which would have a fee of $3000)? The one thing I would assume is that...
by dbr
Fri May 07, 2021 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Estate Allocation
Replies: 6
Views: 613

Re: Real Estate Allocation

I invest in direct holdings of commercial real estate. I only have 3 properties so far and started in 2013. I am always amazed at the opinions I see here regarding the subject. It is a lot of work, especially in the beginning. Once the structure is built/renovated and you have a commercial tenant, ...
by dbr
Fri May 07, 2021 11:34 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much do you trust FIRECalc?
Replies: 17
Views: 2057

Re: How much do you trust FIRECalc?

The FireCalc methodology is simply to tabulate what would have happened to you if you had implemented your plan starting in each of a hundred or so historical years and observed the actual result. In that sense the output is not subject to uncertainty or doubt because it is a tabulation of establish...
by dbr
Fri May 07, 2021 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please review small value tilt portfolio
Replies: 23
Views: 1376

Re: Please review small value tilt portfolio

How much value tilt is optimal??? With respect to optimizing what? The basic Fama-French theory says stock returns are somewhat well predicted by market and by small and value factor loading. The regression model has positive linear coefficients for small and value so the return is greatest when th...
by dbr
Fri May 07, 2021 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Confused about dividend investing, market downturns and early retirement
Replies: 67
Views: 3843

Re: Confused about dividend investing, market downturns and early retirement

It is already established that the SWR has a mild maximum at 60/40 which is a result of optimizing for sequence of returns risk. This reflects the fact that the maximum is not at 100/0. Further approaches have to invoke a changing asset allocation with time. This is not a very strong lever because r...
by dbr
Fri May 07, 2021 10:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retirees: Monthly vs Quarterly vs Annual Distributions
Replies: 72
Views: 4101

Re: Retirees: Monthly vs Quarterly vs Annual Distributions

Retired six years. The foundation of our withdrawal strategy is monthly. But there is usually an annual withdrawal on top in January- February to take care of lumpy things - like Christmas bills, HOA fees, and sometimes income tax owed. If the market is way up, we'll skim a bit of the profit. I'd c...
by dbr
Fri May 07, 2021 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Confused about dividend investing, market downturns and early retirement
Replies: 67
Views: 3843

Re: Confused about dividend investing, market downturns and early retirement

You probably need a "separate" bucket of cash for that purpose. For example, if you had three years worth of cash saved up in CDs or short-duration bonds, then you wouldn't have to withdraw anything from your 1M dollar portfolio during any years where your market returns are less than you...
by dbr
Fri May 07, 2021 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Confused about dividend investing, market downturns and early retirement
Replies: 67
Views: 3843

Re: Confused about dividend investing, market downturns and early retirement

Follow along on their blog. How their portfolio did in 2020 (their 5th full year of "retirement")... https://www.millennial-revolution.com/invest/our-2020-finances-how-did-our-portfolio-do/ Portfolio A is their "yield shield" and it began 2020 and ended 2020: PORTFOLIO A So in t...
by dbr
Fri May 07, 2021 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Estate Allocation
Replies: 6
Views: 613

Re: Real Estate Allocation

REIT stocks and actual real estate are not the same thing. In any case total market indices include REIT stocks. I personally don't see why most of us that have/had jobs and saved money and invested it in stock and bond mutual funds have any particular reason to also hold real estate. There are, on ...
by dbr
Fri May 07, 2021 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Confused about dividend investing, market downturns and early retirement
Replies: 67
Views: 3843

Re: Confused about dividend investing, market downturns and early retirement

In that article you quoted everything after reporting the results of the Trinity study* is a misunderstanding of how investments work. That doesn't mean that it is not possible to attain some asset level and then live indefinitely from that portfolio at a sufficiently low rate of withdrawal. How low...
by dbr
Fri May 07, 2021 8:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Creation & Allocation - $10-$15k/mo contribution (28 years old)
Replies: 2
Views: 174

Re: Portfolio Creation & Allocation - $10-$15k/mo contribution (28 years old)

I would recommend read, read, read starting with "getting started" in the Wiki and then reading books. Good books for investing include those by Swedroe and the Ferri book on asset allocation. There are refences to good books in the Wiki where you will go with getting started. It is more e...