Search found 35602 matches

by dbr
Tue May 18, 2021 2:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why are there so many bad 401k plans (for investment choices)
Replies: 16
Views: 665

Re: Why are there so many bad 401k plans (for investment choices)

Without knowing anything about it . . . lack of incentive to do better. But one thing I did learn about my employer, megacorp, is that they pay a lot of attention to their peer group of companies for the entirety of the compensation and benefits structure and are very sensitive to being competitive....
by dbr
Tue May 18, 2021 10:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Clarification on 25x annual spending rule
Replies: 42
Views: 3176

Re: Clarification on 25x annual spending rule

A better approach to issues like this 97% vs 100% is to test the outcomes by trying different amounts of withdrawal that score 100% and notice at what point the first failures start to appear. One can then set a contingency for withdrawal some margin less. It is also worthwhile to notice how fast th...
by dbr
Tue May 18, 2021 10:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard LifeStrategy Growth Cash Position Recommendations
Replies: 3
Views: 274

Re: Vanguard LifeStrategy Growth Cash Position Recommendations

I don't understand how allocating some money to cash means you get to delay your first RMD by a year. That aside, the idea of having "cushions" isn't helpful in the way some assume. If you put some of your asset in cash then to that extent you have a little less volatile portfolio than you...
by dbr
Mon May 17, 2021 4:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: our retirement number
Replies: 18
Views: 2629

Re: our retirement number

FireCalc defaults to real dollars. The data set is actual performance in nominal dollars and the rate of inflation for each year to convert to real dollars. The expenses are inflated by inflation every year. On the sheets where there are extra expenses or extra income you have to check off whether f...
by dbr
Mon May 17, 2021 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: As a newbie, genuinely interested to hear thoughts on this article which puts down passive index investing
Replies: 29
Views: 3447

Re: As a newbie, genuinely interested to hear thoughts on this article which puts down passive index investing

I don't know that the goals align very well between the Yale endowment fund with $31.2 billion per google, and the average retail investor. What is even the minimum buy in price for some of these great investments? Exactly, but there is a deal going . . . . . . for you only, today only, $31.2B. :sh...
by dbr
Mon May 17, 2021 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question about life cycle fund bond allocation
Replies: 9
Views: 690

Re: Question about life cycle fund bond allocation

The TSP L funds have more in bonds than the M* category average. For example, 2040 has 28% bond vs a 13% average. This has made sense to me. Many TSP participants will have pensions so they can take less risk. Vanguard has a paper explaining their target date methodology here https://personal.vangu...
by dbr
Mon May 17, 2021 1:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: our retirement number
Replies: 18
Views: 2629

Re: our retirement number

You can investigate some of the retirement planners such as FireCalc, CFiresim, Retirement Optimizer, iORP, the Fidelity Planner, the Vanguard Planner, the VPW planner in the Wiki, and so on. All of them run a statistics based investigation of how well your financial situation fits your intended ret...
by dbr
Mon May 17, 2021 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash flow in retirement
Replies: 40
Views: 3789

Re: Cash flow in retirement

Whether in retirement or not, you should have an emergency fund with 6 months expenses. I keep 2 -3 months in Ally Savings and put the rest in Ally No Penalty CDs. I think a lot of retirees feel a separate earmarked emergency fund is unnecessary if they have an investment portfolio of any size. Ie....
by dbr
Mon May 17, 2021 11:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Clarification on 25x annual spending rule
Replies: 42
Views: 3176

Re: Clarification on 25x annual spending rule

But actually using it as a system for retirement income, in the strictest sense, is pretty reckless. Can you explain this? Sure. When someone say's they're going to use the "4% Rule" for retirement income, I assume they're implying a "Constant Dollar" method where they're going ...
by dbr
Mon May 17, 2021 11:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement Calculators Question
Replies: 4
Views: 811

Re: Retirement Calculators Question

I also read people asking about if they can retire and if it will last 30year s etc and a lot of time there is varying opinions if the money will last depending on various scenarios. When I run my data through FireCal and all the other calculators mentioned my portfolio grows to some crazy number a...
by dbr
Mon May 17, 2021 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: As a newbie, genuinely interested to hear thoughts on this article which puts down passive index investing
Replies: 29
Views: 3447

Re: As a newbie, genuinely interested to hear thoughts on this article which puts down passive index investing

livesoft wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 11:07 am
dbr wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 8:42 am Yep, that 100,000 acres with mineral rights I own over the Hugoton gas dome is going to be my source of income.
Ha! My neighbor does actually own some salt domes which are leased to companies to store gas. They've been in their family for years and years.
Good one.
by dbr
Mon May 17, 2021 11:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Clarification on 25x annual spending rule
Replies: 42
Views: 3176

Re: Clarification on 25x annual spending rule

I think you're right on both counts. As Jags is putting it makes some sense: time to use the breaks if conditions don't look good. But the comment I was quoting from by azanon was saying that using the 4% rule is reckless. Maybe he meant something more specific, but I don't see it in what he wrote....
by dbr
Mon May 17, 2021 10:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Worth fighting a will in Virginia?
Replies: 80
Views: 7270

Re: Worth fighting a will in Virginia?

Maybe a lesson is that a person should always consider what might transpire when they are no longer able to manage their affairs. I would be curious If the father's will was a DIY will. I know when we had our wills done a few years ago with an attorney, she did walk us through various scenarios and...
by dbr
Mon May 17, 2021 10:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Worth fighting a will in Virginia?
Replies: 80
Views: 7270

Re: Worth fighting a will in Virginia?

Sorry for your fiancee's loss. I am not a lawyer. As others have mentioned, it sounds like she does not have much of a case. Unfortunately, with multiple marriages, blended families, etc this situation is not uncommon. It is less about the money and more about the fact that your fiancee was "l...
by dbr
Mon May 17, 2021 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash flow in retirement
Replies: 40
Views: 3789

Re: Cash flow in retirement

Nor do I rebalance the portfolio anymore, I just direct towards desired target weightings by selling whatever is the 'over weighted' at the time. Exactly so. With a balanced portfolio there is no "withdrawing from stocks when stocks are down" or something like that. If the whole portfolio...
by dbr
Mon May 17, 2021 10:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying Cash to Babysitter. Can i claim childcare credit
Replies: 18
Views: 1930

Re: Paying Cash to Babysitter. Can i claim childcare credit

From https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/nanny-tax.asp "The nanny tax does not apply if the babysitter is the taxpayer's parent or spouse or if the babysitter is under the age of 18 and is not primarily engaged in the household employment profession." Given the babysitter is working 30 h...
by dbr
Mon May 17, 2021 9:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Worth fighting a will in Virginia?
Replies: 80
Views: 7270

Re: Worth fighting a will in Virginia?

Sorry for your fiancee's loss. I am not a lawyer. As others have mentioned, it sounds like she does not have much of a case. Unfortunately, with multiple marriages, blended families, etc this situation is not uncommon. It is less about the money and more about the fact that your fiancee was "l...
by dbr
Mon May 17, 2021 9:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Clarification on 25x annual spending rule
Replies: 42
Views: 3176

Re: Clarification on 25x annual spending rule

I won't go into the details, but there are ways to fine-tune those aforementioned issues; For instance, I plan to use a variable withdrawal method that intentionally, but gradually spends into principle, which will allow me to safely lower my equity percent to the ~ 30% range while still withdrawin...
by dbr
Mon May 17, 2021 9:30 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Need Help With FIRECalc Excel Error
Replies: 7
Views: 559

Re: Need Help With FIRECalc Excel Error

I get that message, say yes, and the file opens in protected view. I am using Office 2019. I think it was purchased as "Home and Office" or "Home and Student" as a single downloaded, not subscription, installation on Win 10 bought from Dell this year. The file type is xls and not...
by dbr
Mon May 17, 2021 9:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for Parent Investment--60 years old
Replies: 10
Views: 967

Re: Advice for Parent Investment--60 years old

Wth only $100,000 in liquid assets at her age, I wouldn’t put it in anything but cash or short-term bonds. She can’t afford to risk principal loss. Once she accumulates a bit more through savings (like $150K), then I’d add some equities. I didn't add to my comments but agree completely that $100k-$...
by dbr
Mon May 17, 2021 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 883
Views: 133671

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

But in truth, it shouldn't really matter if the historic odds were 95% or 100%. Nobody is going to determine on day 1 of retirement how much they will withdraw from their portfolio every year, in inflation-adjusted dollars, every year for the next three decades without any regard for the performanc...
by dbr
Mon May 17, 2021 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: As a newbie, genuinely interested to hear thoughts on this article which puts down passive index investing
Replies: 29
Views: 3447

Re: As a newbie, genuinely interested to hear thoughts on this article which puts down passive index investing

Yep, that 100,000 acres with mineral rights I own over the Hugoton gas dome is going to be my source of income. For you and your back yard, I am not so sure. I owned a hundred acres or so of farmland that was turned over to timber with a tax benefit. After another fifty years or so some money might ...
by dbr
Mon May 17, 2021 8:30 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for Parent Investment--60 years old
Replies: 10
Views: 967

Re: Advice for Parent Investment--60 years old

I would start the thought process by plugging these numbers into a planner like FireCalc to project the income she can have when she retires because she can't work anymore. That date is ambiguous and FireCalc asks for dates, so a person would want to plan a series of scenarios, such as retire at 67,...
by dbr
Mon May 17, 2021 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash flow in retirement
Replies: 40
Views: 3789

Re: Cash flow in retirement

Since cash is a low returning and low risk asset one answer is how much makes sense in the asset allocation. For most retirees cash returns too little to be a good asset to hold. So from the portfolio perspective, none. Cash flow is a question of liquidity and convenience. Investment assets are gene...
by dbr
Mon May 17, 2021 7:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying Cash to Babysitter. Can i claim childcare credit
Replies: 18
Views: 1930

Re: Paying Cash to Babysitter. Can i claim childcare credit

There are requirements and also cases where the requirements don't apply. But the serious hazards are not in tax payments but in liability for injuries suffered by the employee or liability for acts of the employee. Check out workman's comp and employer liability insurance. Homeowners insurance does...
by dbr
Mon May 17, 2021 7:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Marginal improvement in drawdown for every 5% in bond allocation
Replies: 6
Views: 970

Re: Marginal improvement in drawdown for every 5% in bond allocation

It also makes sense to me that the maximum stock allocation be no more than 75%, but each investor has to decide that for themselves. Can you justify this one in your personal context? I take it you simply have no use for the extra returns at your stage? It isn't just a question of the utility of e...
by dbr
Sun May 16, 2021 9:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Parents Late 80s Advice on Alternative to Bonds
Replies: 42
Views: 3384

Re: Parents Late 80s Advice on Alternative to Bonds

Good point about investing for themselves or heirs. I've thought about asking just that but it is kind of a sensitive topic since I'm an heir. If they could just continue doing bond laddering (I think that is what it is called) and have performance like they've had in past decades they'd be happy. ...
by dbr
Sun May 16, 2021 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long Bonds in retirement - curiosity...
Replies: 61
Views: 4285

Re: Long Bonds in retirement - curiosity...

I am actually substituting some of my total bond funds with short-term bond funds.. this is to reduce the duration risk of my bond portion. This actually has the effect of INCREASING the interest rate risk of the portfolio, which is the opposite of what most investors think they are achieving. I am...
by dbr
Sun May 16, 2021 5:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help With Elderly Parents' Portfolio
Replies: 8
Views: 959

Re: Help With Elderly Parents' Portfolio

One thing not previously mentioned is simple Single Premium Immediate Annuity for at least some of that money. The pay out % will be high for people that age. An SPIA would not cover a greater than expected increase in general costs, then again while TIPS would cover an unexpectedly large increase ...
by dbr
Sun May 16, 2021 4:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Honda CRV or Suburu Forrester or other SUV
Replies: 81
Views: 6135

Re: Honda CRV or Suburu Forrester or other SUV

Many thanks Bogleheads! This could be my last car and large investment. Thank you very much for all the advice. Do you have comments on electric cars ? my concern is insufficient infrastructure to charge these cars. I have no idea on the costs to service these cars. I know the future will be electr...
by dbr
Sun May 16, 2021 4:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Parents Late 80s Advice on Alternative to Bonds
Replies: 42
Views: 3384

Re: Parents Late 80s Advice on Alternative to Bonds

Any Target Retirement Income Index fund at most brokers is all they need. Vanguard TR Income is 30% stocks and LifeStrategy Income is 20%. Those could be good choices. For sure cutting investment costs and having holdings that do not require any maintenance would be fine. Also, they probably should...
by dbr
Sun May 16, 2021 4:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Parents Late 80s Advice on Alternative to Bonds
Replies: 42
Views: 3384

Re: Parents Late 80s Advice on Alternative to Bonds

I think it makes no sense to be paying fees to invest in a case like this and I also think it is perfectly fine for money that is not needed to be in bonds even if it "isn't profitable now." What can be earned or not earned on bonds has no effect on this financial position and there are lo...
by dbr
Sun May 16, 2021 4:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help With Elderly Parents' Portfolio
Replies: 8
Views: 959

Re: Help With Elderly Parents' Portfolio

A further comment is that we have been through this as well. The move from home care to a facility was a plus all the way around. As much as a person might have the idea they want to stay home people can be much better off in a community than at home with care coming in. That was the case that we ob...
by dbr
Sun May 16, 2021 1:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I Give Up My Earnest Money
Replies: 126
Views: 9829

Re: Should I Give Up My Earnest Money

It might be you should have cold feet, but I don't think an appraisal is justification for throwing away $50k. Other reasons may weigh differently. An appraisal is a very iffy number.
by dbr
Sun May 16, 2021 1:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help With Elderly Parents' Portfolio
Replies: 8
Views: 959

Re: Help With Elderly Parents' Portfolio

What is the plan from where the money is all spent down? It matters because it relates to the consequences of running out of money sooner rather than later. Possibly in general someone expecting to spend all the money in four to seven years should just hold the asset in cash, meaning anything from T...
by dbr
Sun May 16, 2021 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sequence of Returns Risk and Target Date Funds
Replies: 21
Views: 1853

Re: Sequence of Returns Risk and Target Date Funds

Starting retirement at a low equity position makes a heck of a lot of sense. Gliding up as you get comfortable in retirement and have fewer years to worry about funding also makes a lot of sense. It might make sense intuitively, but it doesn't improve the actual outcome. I agree that what might (or...
by dbr
Sun May 16, 2021 12:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Using Turbo Tax for the first time how long would it take you to do one brokerage and one credit union?
Replies: 37
Views: 1936

Re: Using Turbo Tax for the first time how long would it take you to do one brokerage and one credit union?

I should add the time to use TT is also reduced by uploading the previous year return from saved files. That means all the taxpayer and contact information is already loaded along with any carryovers. That saves a lot of time. This is easy with the downloaded version, but I don't know what happens w...
by dbr
Sun May 16, 2021 12:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help me adjust my fixed income (TBM) to FIPDX (Inflation Protection)
Replies: 7
Views: 572

Re: Help me adjust my fixed income (TBM) to FIPDX (Inflation Protection)

Another factor to consider is how much of your expenses are (or will be) covered by Social Security. Your SS benefits get inflation adjustments. If your SS benefits cover, say, 50% of your expenses then that may give you enough unexpected inflation protection. Now you're not at SS claiming age yet ...
by dbr
Sun May 16, 2021 11:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does "time in the market beats timing the market" apply to housing?
Replies: 22
Views: 2399

Re: Does "time in the market beats timing the market" apply to housing?

I've read numerous Bogleheads forums on rentals, homeowning, plus a handfull of real estate books, but I still can't decide if "time in the market beats timing the market" does or does not apply to housing. What do you think those expressions mean? What decision that you are making depend...
by dbr
Sun May 16, 2021 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Marginal improvement in drawdown for every 5% in bond allocation
Replies: 6
Views: 970

Re: Marginal improvement in drawdown for every 5% in bond allocation

I've heard that a small amount of bonds goes a long way to help reduce drawdown during bear markets, on stock heavy portfolios. Have any blogs run the numbers on what recent drawdowns would have looked like at their lows for a 100/0 portfolio, vs 95/5, 90/10, 85/15, 80/20 ? You could try an experim...
by dbr
Sun May 16, 2021 11:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Using Turbo Tax for the first time how long would it take you to do one brokerage and one credit union?
Replies: 37
Views: 1936

Re: Using Tubro Tax for the first time how long would it take you to do one brokerage and one credit union?

Given our tax return has looked about the same for years now and that we download all the brokerage statements, I probably spend about 30 minutes to run through a 1040 SR return in Turbo-Tax. It might be a little more than that all the way through e-filing and paying for the state e-file. If you are...
by dbr
Sun May 16, 2021 11:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help me adjust my fixed income (TBM) to FIPDX (Inflation Protection)
Replies: 7
Views: 572

Re: Help me adjust my fixed income (TBM) to FIPDX (Inflation Protection)

To do it just sell some total bond in those tax deferred accounts and buy the TIPS fund. The question how much does not have an answer other than it is probably between 0% and 100% of your bonds. I would grant that there would be lots of people that don't hold any TIPS and very few that are 100% TIP...
by dbr
Sun May 16, 2021 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sequence of Returns Risk and Target Date Funds
Replies: 21
Views: 1853

Re: Sequence of Returns Risk and Target Date Funds

I don't think that the possibility of messing around with asset allocation to effectively increase safe withdrawal rates by managing "sequence of return risk" or managing anything else is a well established possibility and of a magnitude worth featuring in a plan. I do agree that the gener...
by dbr
Sun May 16, 2021 10:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: In your calculators how do you use CPI-U and CPI-W?
Replies: 2
Views: 301

Re: In your calculators how do you use CPI-U and CPI-W?

You are tying to use or assuming far more predictability in inflation than possibly exists. Certainly your prediction error far exceeds the difference between and among different methods of CPI calculation. You can look at what is actually done to index SS or TIPS or whatever is in the question. Act...
by dbr
Sun May 16, 2021 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long Bonds in retirement - curiosity...
Replies: 61
Views: 4285

Re: Long Bonds in retirement - curiosity...

As with many investors, a distaste for overall portfolio volatility in returns (aka the price variation vineviz talks about) causes us to be shy of long bonds even given the rational suggestion to hold them. A compromise is total bond index investing or backing off and holding intermediate bond fund...
by dbr
Sun May 16, 2021 9:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Increase 401k by 2% or Enroll in Company Stock?
Replies: 11
Views: 660

Re: Increase 401k by 2% or Enroll in Company Stock?

How soon can you sell your company stock? You can take advantage of the 15% discount as long as you sell the shares as soon as possible. A one year vesting period might be acceptable. Longer than that is tougher. In any case accumulating company stock is risky and should be avoided.
by dbr
Sun May 16, 2021 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Vanguard's 10-year forecasts flawed in any way?
Replies: 50
Views: 4175

Re: Are Vanguard's 10-year forecasts flawed in any way?

The best advice might be to regard this sort of thing as "not even wrong."* I think nisi"s discussion is excellent. It does make one wonder what point there is in publishing something like this. *"not even wrong" comes from this dismissive anecdote: "The phrase is gener...
by dbr
Sun May 16, 2021 8:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio management services
Replies: 3
Views: 358

Re: Portfolio management services

It is usually a big mistake to pay 1.25% every year for advice and management.* Note that almost always managed assets also end up in higher expense funds. The true cost will often be more than 2%. Better choices are one time advice for a fee or a lower cost management company like Vanguard Personal...
by dbr
Sun May 16, 2021 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Modeling Portfolio Risk Ratios
Replies: 6
Views: 537

Re: Modeling Portfolio Risk Ratios

Portfolio Visualizer calculates the standard deviation of annual return and also has correlation calculations. Simple estimates like the old Rick Ferri 30 year forecast also publish a risk number. Even if the return numbers may be dated, the risk numbers are good enough to let most of us separate as...
by dbr
Sat May 15, 2021 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard bond funds [What is the difference?]
Replies: 6
Views: 696

Re: Vanguard bond funds [What is the difference?]

Yes, reading what the fund says about itself is a good start and so is the Wiki article. Swedroe has written a good book on bonds and so has Annette Thau https://www.amazon.com/Bond-Book-Everything-Treasuries-Municipals/dp/0071358625/ref=sr_1_3?dchild=1&keywords=investing+bond+books+thau&qid...