Search found 7467 matches

by watchnerd
Sat Apr 17, 2021 1:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14598
Views: 1120713

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Chinese stocks are seriously lagging global stocks; last two times this happened was Q4 2018 & Q1 2020. Canary in the coalmine. https://api.wsj.net/api/kaavio/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=USDU&uf=0&type=2&size=2&sid=13864278&style=320&freq=8&entitlementtoke...
by watchnerd
Sat Apr 17, 2021 12:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those adding Crypto as an asset class to their AA
Replies: 49
Views: 3606

Re: For those adding Crypto as an asset class to their AA

Restructuring the entire financial system of Western Civilization is not exactly a given. Or cryptocurrency just gets added into the mix along with everything else in the current financial system. Gold and precious metals co-exist with fiat currency just fine without being some winner-take-all kind...
by watchnerd
Sat Apr 17, 2021 12:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Beginning to evaluate the holdings of Vanguard Target Retirement Funds
Replies: 133
Views: 7085

Re: Beginning to evaluate the holdings of Vanguard Target Retirement Funds

nedsaid wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 12:03 am Panic selling might provide emotional relief but its effect on long term wealth building is disastrous.
I never have the panic sell urge during market crashes.

I get the panic sell urge after huge gains.
by watchnerd
Sat Apr 17, 2021 12:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Beginning to evaluate the holdings of Vanguard Target Retirement Funds
Replies: 133
Views: 7085

Re: Beginning to evaluate the holdings of Vanguard Target Retirement Funds

vineviz wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 5:25 pm In fact, the last 20 years have been one of the lowest returning 20 year periods in recent history.
And represent 87% of my investing history...

:( :( :(
by watchnerd
Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those adding Crypto as an asset class to their AA
Replies: 49
Views: 3606

Re: For those adding Crypto as an asset class to their AA

I have a very large % of my net worth in crypto, something I do not recommend to others. How many figures is your net worth? Having a high % in crypto at 4 figures is a very different matter than at 7 or 8 figures. hmmmm.... maybe. maybe not. both are "Christopher Columbus". Looking for I...
by watchnerd
Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Move towards a higher stock allocation after a crash
Replies: 58
Views: 3146

Re: Move towards a higher stock allocation after a crash

Do you have a link to these studies? Or some google terms I should be trying? These are a starting point, they reference other works to drill into https://www.kitces.com/blog/valuation-based-tactical-asset-allocation-in-retirement-and-the-impact-of-market-valuation-on-declining-and-rising-equity-gl...
by watchnerd
Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those adding Crypto as an asset class to their AA
Replies: 49
Views: 3606

Re: For those adding Crypto as an asset class to their AA

Prahasaurus wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:49 pm We are at the start of one of the greatest wealth transfers in history. Something I believe will play out over the next decade. How you participate in that is really up to you.
Wealth transfer from whom to whom?
by watchnerd
Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those adding Crypto as an asset class to their AA
Replies: 49
Views: 3606

Re: For those adding Crypto as an asset class to their AA

Prahasaurus wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:22 pm
I have a very large % of my net worth in crypto, something I do not recommend to others.
How many figures is your net worth?

Having a high % in crypto at 4 figures is a very different matter than at 7 or 8 figures.
by watchnerd
Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those adding Crypto as an asset class to their AA
Replies: 49
Views: 3606

Re: For those adding Crypto as an asset class to their AA

What size allocation are you targeting? I don't know how people model crypto using the usual MPT analysis tools to even begin to answer this question in an empirical manner. Well one problem is that even a small amount of crypto has in the past caused a sharp increase in volatility. It is not a div...
by watchnerd
Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Move towards a higher stock allocation after a crash
Replies: 58
Views: 3146

Re: Move towards a higher stock allocation after a crash

You are making this too complicated. If you have a fixed stock and bond asset allocation then you will automatically be selling bonds to buy stocks after a stock market crash. +1 Exactly! -1/2 The OP's method is overly complicated, arbitrary in its action points, extreme in the allocation spreads b...
by watchnerd
Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Move towards a higher stock allocation after a crash
Replies: 58
Views: 3146

Re: Move towards a higher stock allocation after a crash

Doc7 wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:36 pm I’ll take that bet
Was there a bet being discussed?
by watchnerd
Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those adding Crypto as an asset class to their AA
Replies: 49
Views: 3606

Re: For those adding Crypto as an asset class to their AA

TheTimeLord wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 7:42 am What size allocation are you targeting?
I don't know how people model crypto using the usual MPT analysis tools to even begin to answer this question in an empirical manner.
by watchnerd
Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those adding Crypto as an asset class to their AA
Replies: 49
Views: 3606

Re: For those adding Crypto as an asset class to their AA

Jags4186 wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:30 am Well folks, that’s it, top is in. I officially have purchased 1 ETH. Get out now.
Should have bought copper.
by watchnerd
Fri Apr 16, 2021 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14598
Views: 1120713

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Money Flow Index is showing both VOO and QQQ as overbought. This hasn't happened in a while. What does 'overbought' even really mean, anyway? The price went up 'too fast'? It's when the money flow index breaks 80. It's an actual index. https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/tech...
by watchnerd
Fri Apr 16, 2021 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future Market Expectations
Replies: 33
Views: 1908

Re: Future Market Expectations

There will most definitely be some kind of "crash" when the government stops throwing pallets of money out of helicopters. Either that or the inflation will get so high that it forces a lot of industries to slow down. It's always been temporary so far. Or an international military conflic...
by watchnerd
Fri Apr 16, 2021 9:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why Buy TIPS Bonds Now?
Replies: 34
Views: 3343

Re: Why Buy TIPS Bonds Now?

I'm not sure but I last bought I bonds in 2009 for 3%+ real. Good investment but, of course, would have made much more in equities. Since stocks, CD ladders , I-bonds and ST bonds provide protection against inflation, I don't see why TIPS are so popular with Bogleheads. Certainly not at negative re...
by watchnerd
Fri Apr 16, 2021 9:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Market Timing Change
Replies: 39
Views: 2007

Re: Market Timing Change

livesoft I did not buy back what I sold, but I did take the cash from the sale and bought a stock that was out of favor this year. The stock was down a little over 5% for the year as of yesterday. I won't say what I purchased. I have two reports set up in Quicken. My stock and VTI as the benchmark....
by watchnerd
Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Changing bond allocation from 100% BND?
Replies: 8
Views: 1027

Re: Changing bond allocation from 100% BND?

If you want to reduce bond drops during stock crashes, don't hold corporate bonds.

I don't.

I take my business risk on the equity side.
by watchnerd
Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: In odds. IRS didn’t withdrew money from our account.
Replies: 19
Views: 1028

Re: In odds. IRS didn’t withdrew money from our account.

IRS promptly took the tax payment I owed (a decent amount, enough for a small car) them from my account yesterday, 4/15.
by watchnerd
Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How foolish is this? [Buying waterfront apartment in Florida]
Replies: 67
Views: 6317

Re: How foolish is this? [Buying waterfront apartment in Florida]

oldfatguy wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 1:45 pm
protagonist wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 11:18 am We are thinking of bidding on a great 2 br apartment on the 10th floor of an building on the waterfront ...
How far above current sea level is the property around the building?
Yeah, that's what I was wondering, too.
by watchnerd
Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold continues to soar!
Replies: 395
Views: 27551

Re: Gold continues to soar!

I thought it was vs a crypto-gold barbell? Which weighs more, the bits on the Treasury's mainframe or the bits on the blockchain? I read this, then made a joke to myself "gold-backed crypto LOLOL." But then I googled that, and sure enough... https://pmgt.perthmint.com/ Well, at least it's...
by watchnerd
Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Move towards a higher stock allocation after a crash
Replies: 58
Views: 3146

Re: Move towards a higher stock allocation after a crash

bugleheadd wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 7:35 pm
Stocks go back up. Stocks always go back to all time highs. Stocks always going past all time highs.
Verifiably false.

You seem to be ignorant of the Nikkei.

Image
by watchnerd
Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Move towards a higher stock allocation after a crash
Replies: 58
Views: 3146

Re: Move towards a higher stock allocation after a crash

How about the opposite scenario when stocks increase nearly 50% in the past year (like it has). Would you argue for moving to a more conservative asset allocation. Does not all the same logic apply? If you're using valuation-based logic (as opposed to drop/gain percentages), it should apply in both...
by watchnerd
Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold continues to soar!
Replies: 395
Views: 27551

Re: Gold continues to soar!

000 wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 7:54 pm
Forester wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 6:30 pm The opportunity cost of a gold-bonds barbell, versus just bonds, is currently low. There will be a time when gold could be dismissed, but I don't see it yet.
What about the opportunity cost compared to a crypto-bonds barbell? :twisted:
I thought it was vs a crypto-gold barbell?
by watchnerd
Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold continues to soar!
Replies: 395
Views: 27551

Re: Gold continues to soar!

Forester wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 6:30 pm The opportunity cost of a gold-bonds barbell, versus just bonds, is currently low. There will be a time when gold could be dismissed, but I don't see it yet.

Funny.

Playing along, is the gold at the long or the short end?
by watchnerd
Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14598
Views: 1120713

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Company 1 sales at $524 billion per year. Company 2 sales at $221 billion per year. Company 3 sales at $172 billion per year. Company 4 sales at $58 billion per year. Company #5 sales at $32 billion per year. All from 2020 10K annual reports. For the percentage guru...company #2 is valued at over $...
by watchnerd
Fri Apr 16, 2021 7:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why Buy TIPS Bonds Now?
Replies: 34
Views: 3343

Re: Why Buy TIPS Bonds Now?

William Million wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 6:25 pm

In general, I agree. However, I do buy TIPS on the rare occasions they reach 2%+ real.
2%+ real?

When did that last happen?
by watchnerd
Fri Apr 16, 2021 7:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why Buy TIPS Bonds Now?
Replies: 34
Views: 3343

Re: Why Buy TIPS Bonds Now?

If inflation is higher than expected, i.e. exceeds the breakeven inflation, TIPS will do better, although it still may be negative real yield. More than “may”. The real TIPS yield is guaranteed to be negative, no matter what inflation does, right? Edit: well you’re guaranteed to get par back on the...
by watchnerd
Fri Apr 16, 2021 6:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why Buy TIPS Bonds Now?
Replies: 34
Views: 3343

Re: Why Buy TIPS Bonds Now?

Reviving this thread, with the real threat of inflation/stagflation we are looking at now, what is everyone's thinking on shifting some allocation to TIPS? I'm keeping my allocation to TIPS the same (see sig): In Risk Portfolio, Short TIPS barbelled with LTT. In LMP, alternating rungs 10 YR TIPS wi...
by watchnerd
Fri Apr 16, 2021 6:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why Buy TIPS Bonds Now?
Replies: 34
Views: 3343

Re: Why Buy TIPS Bonds Now?

The yield on the 10-year TIPS already is negative: -0.82% as of 7/17/2020. Source: https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield. Kevin I didn't know that, but the current negative yield puts an even stronger imperative on the question:...
by watchnerd
Fri Apr 16, 2021 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total market investors, do you feel comfortable with only a handful of companies at the top?
Replies: 41
Views: 2722

Re: Total market investors, do you feel comfortable with only a handful of companies at the top?

I'm comfortable with the 99.6% of the investable global cap weighted stock market held by VT / VTWAX.

I add in the missing .4%.
by watchnerd
Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14598
Views: 1120713

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

rockstar wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:49 am Money Flow Index is showing both VOO and QQQ as overbought. This hasn't happened in a while.
What does 'overbought' even really mean, anyway?

The price went up 'too fast'?
by watchnerd
Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: No Bonds - How risky am I?
Replies: 24
Views: 1738

Re: No Bonds - How risky am I?

Sure, but would John Bogle recommend this? I was responding to "I follow Boglehead investing..." This is not just about low cost and tax efficiency. Of course, to each his own. Is that what Bogleheads is? Just doing what Jack liked? Vanguard certainly doesn't follow Jack's opinions on eve...
by watchnerd
Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future Market Expectations
Replies: 33
Views: 1908

Re: Future Market Expectations

From a results perspective, I don't think they can both be true. If the first camp is right, it will take a serious re-valuation - either a sudden significant crash or consecutive years of negative performance - for things to get back to traditional fair valuation. Sure they can both be right. It's...
by watchnerd
Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14598
Views: 1120713

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

TheTimeLord wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:36 am

From my point of view these companies don't have to borrow to expand business or make acquisitions.
How does that plug into the DCF equation?

Are you going to give some coefficient to earnings growth?
by watchnerd
Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future Market Expectations
Replies: 33
Views: 1908

Re: Future Market Expectations

22twain wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:38 am
Tamalak wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 7:40 am I expect low returns in the next 10 years.
Lots of people said the same thing after 2008-09.
They also said it after 2000 and were right.
by watchnerd
Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For a 40/60 Allocation, what would you choose ?
Replies: 33
Views: 3386

Re: For a 40/60 Allocation, what would you choose ?

Forester wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:27 am
sixtyforty wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 10:31 am If you wanted a 40/60 allocation, which combo of funds (or single fund) would you choose and why ?
40% VT
40% AGG
15% GLD
5% GDX
Naughty bad chain yanker!
by watchnerd
Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future Market Expectations
Replies: 33
Views: 1908

Re: Future Market Expectations

I find this period of financial history quite fascinating because you can see the rise (and clash) of two competing narratives about the future of the stock market. On one side: you have the story that valuations across the board are extremely expensive, using metrics like P/E ratios, CAPE, or the ...
by watchnerd
Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: No Bonds - How risky am I?
Replies: 24
Views: 1738

Re: No Bonds - How risky am I?

Ramjet wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:25 am
Blasphemy
I know.

I don't use 3 fund either and think TBM is sub-optimal, too.

And I have a smidgeon of leveraged products.
by watchnerd
Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14598
Views: 1120713

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Nasdaq furiously clawing its way upward despite the 10yr surge. These two have turned into diabolical enemies, like Beowulf and Grendel locked in battle. I think at some point people will realize this narrative doesn't work for Big Tech with huge amounts of cash on their balances sheets, if they ha...
by watchnerd
Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:19 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: No Bonds - How risky am I?
Replies: 24
Views: 1738

Re: No Bonds - How risky am I?

Ramjet wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:17 am

Boglehead Principle #3: Never take on too much risk, or accept too little

Labeling that Boglehead is silly; Jack Bogle didn't invent that idea.

That concept has been around since at least the invention of capitalism.
by watchnerd
Fri Apr 16, 2021 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future Market Expectations
Replies: 33
Views: 1908

Re: Future Market Expectations

There seems to be a lot of differing opinions out there about the market right now, so I want to see what the Boglehead community thinks. What are your guys expected returns for say an S&P 500 Index fund for the next 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10- year periods? Do you believe that despite just coming out ...
by watchnerd
Fri Apr 16, 2021 9:06 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: No Bonds - How risky am I?
Replies: 24
Views: 1738

Re: No Bonds - How risky am I?

I follow booglhead investing, except for bonds, and stay the course. This is like saying "I am a very careful driver, except I like to travel at twice the speed limit." How so? There is nothing inherent in an appreciation for buy and hold low cost stock index investing that says you must ...
by watchnerd
Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: No Bonds - How risky am I?
Replies: 24
Views: 1738

Re: No Bonds - How risky am I?

JPM wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 7:59 am Is the two or three fund portfolio predicated on the long bond bull? Will it still work well in a bear bond market?
This question should be asked more often.
by watchnerd
Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: No Bonds - How risky am I?
Replies: 24
Views: 1738

Re: No Bonds - How risky am I?

Thus we have approx $4M that is 50/50 mix between ITOT ETF (stocks) and Real Estate Equity. We don't count our illiquid holdings (real estate, PE, VC) as part of liquid investment portfolio because we can't rebalance from them into down markets. Sounds like you're 100/0. How risky you are you? The ...
by watchnerd
Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: New 60/40 idea any good?
Replies: 10
Views: 1550

Re: New 60/40 idea any good?

relativeratio wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 5:30 am What if the 60% is still in equities but the 40% bonds are replaced by MYGAs and/or Index annuities?
No, it doesn't sound any good to me.

Sounds worse than holding Treasuries, which have been negatively correlated to stocks.

And, as others said, how do you rebalance?
by watchnerd
Thu Apr 15, 2021 11:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Move towards a higher stock allocation after a crash
Replies: 58
Views: 3146

Re: Move towards a higher stock allocation after a crash

wouldn't it theoretically make sense to move to a higher equity allocation in a crash? If I am interested in something like this (and am willing to accept the risks, etc), can you think of a structured way I could add it to my IPS? Yes, it theoretically makes sense when it comes to risk/reward. My ...
by watchnerd
Thu Apr 15, 2021 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14598
Views: 1120713

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

The craziest part about today's soaring in my port:

LTT (VGLT) up 1.5%, beating US TSM

...oh, and it beat ARKK, too (+1.4%).
by watchnerd
Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds as ballast and a rising Glide path
Replies: 29
Views: 2035

Re: Bonds as ballast and a rising Glide path

If you hold bonds as ballast for equities then you need to maintain the same AA no matter how much. If you hold bonds in terms of expenses then there will be a point where you have enough. So you are saying you should maintain your AA, so for a 50/50 portfolio... ... that is 25X you have 12.5X in B...