Search found 9137 matches

by randomguy
Thu Nov 12, 2020 12:17 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New MacBook Pro with M1 processor
Replies: 129
Views: 10199

Re: New MacBook Pro with M1 processor

Planning to be traveling quite a bit and was originally looking at transitioning from an iMac 27" to a MacBook Pro 16". I'm now thinking I'll get the 13" MacBook Air 8 core GPU with the M1 chip, 16 GB RAM, 512 GB SSD. Looks like the 13" MacBook Air M1 is a lot like the 13" ...
by randomguy
Wed Nov 11, 2020 3:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Mix or match bedroom furniture?
Replies: 18
Views: 1213

Re: Mix or match bedroom furniture?

what was your approach? did you buy a full matching set or piece together various pieces to make it work? my wife seems to want to go the matchy route. to me that looks a bit like a furniture showroom. If you hire an interior designer, they will tell you a matched set is one of their pet peeves. I ...
by randomguy
Mon Oct 26, 2020 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will I really need 80% replacement during retirement?
Replies: 118
Views: 10864

Re: Will I really need 80% replacement during retirement?

"According to AARP, one common rule of thumb is that you'll need 70% to 80% of your pre-retirement income after you retire. So if you made an average of $75,000 per year during your working years, you may only need $52,500 to $60,000 in retirement." If your income was $75K when working yo...
by randomguy
Sat Oct 17, 2020 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody here trying Coast FIRE?
Replies: 326
Views: 30332

Re: Anybody here trying Coast FIRE?

Higher equity valuations are "justified" by lower interest rates, but higher equity valuations lead to lower returns, ceteris paribus. We're going to get lower equity returns and lower bond returns (i.e., stock market returns from 1929 without the significant real return from bonds), to a...
by randomguy
Sat Oct 17, 2020 1:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Time travel for high salary earners
Replies: 106
Views: 11559

Re: Time travel for high salary earners

Saved more early on rather than enjoying finally having a high income. Both for the compounding, and for forcing the "base spend" up higher. I would have spend much more money early on. The things I passed up on to save those extra 5k-10k/year just weren't worth now that I am saving 20x o...
by randomguy
Fri Oct 16, 2020 6:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social security. Take it at 62 [Motley Fool article]
Replies: 222
Views: 20550

Re: Social security. Take it at 62 [Motley Fool article]

And that 8+% was not guaranteed or risk free, unlike SS. But with interest rates being low, and expected future returns also lower (the new normal), 8% guaranteed starts to look even better. SS doesn't give out an 8% return either. Just because a benefit increase and a return are both percentages d...
by randomguy
Sun Oct 11, 2020 11:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social security. Take it at 62 [Motley Fool article]
Replies: 222
Views: 20550

Re: Social security. Take it at 62 [Motley Fool article]

Is it a bad idea to take social security at 62? This article seems to suggest to take it early https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fool.com/amp/retirement/2019/11/02/the-1-reason-to-claim-social-security-at-62-that-n.aspx Yes if you are making 7%+ on your money in a low inflation environment, taking S...
by randomguy
Sat Oct 10, 2020 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What the Harvard endowment’s below-average grade can teach you about index funds and your investments"
Replies: 45
Views: 4441

Re: "What the Harvard endowment’s below-average grade can teach you about index funds and your investments"

University endowments need to pay for ongoing expenses, not unlike someone in retirement, and so a 100% equities index is probably not the right benchmark. (The article does mention that Harvard has also lagged a 60/40 benchmark.) Of course but who wants to bring in things that don't agree with the...
by randomguy
Sat Oct 10, 2020 10:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth conversion How aggressive 22% or 24%?
Replies: 99
Views: 9079

Re: Roth conversion How aggressive 22% or 24%?

My goal is to pay the same percentage in taxes now, while doing Roth conversions, that I will pay when I start getting SS & RMDs Why is that your goal? My goal when doing these calculations is always to maximize the amount of money going to the things I want (either me or my kids spending it or...
by randomguy
Fri Oct 09, 2020 5:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should We Ever Save for Children's College?
Replies: 467
Views: 30727

Re: Should We Ever Save for Children's College?

I'm not 100% sure what you're asking but the full COA at a place like Princeton is $75k/year for full pay. No kid is going to be able to get loans in this amount without a cosigner. If the parents won't pay their EFC and won't cosign a loan, then the kid can't go. I am trying to compare 2 similar, ...
by randomguy
Fri Oct 09, 2020 4:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth conversion How aggressive 22% or 24%?
Replies: 99
Views: 9079

Re: Roth conversion How aggressive 22% or 24%?

My goal is to pay the same percentage in taxes now, while doing Roth conversions, that I will pay when I start getting SS & RMDs Why is that your goal? My goal when doing these calculations is always to maximize the amount of money going to the things I want (either me or my kids spending it or...
by randomguy
Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth conversion How aggressive 22% or 24%?
Replies: 99
Views: 9079

Re: Roth conversion How aggressive 22% or 24%?

I've been doing 35% this year and last and depending on election results may do everything this year. But think about it, with our debt, and how it is increasing, how is it not going to have rates going up in the future? A 20% VAT might result in lower income tax rates.:) Speculating on the future ...
by randomguy
Wed Oct 07, 2020 1:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth conversion How aggressive 22% or 24%?
Replies: 99
Views: 9079

Re: Roth conversion How aggressive 22% or 24%?

I think if you don't going into the 24% bracket now with ROTH conversions, you will go into the 24% bracket in a half dozen years from RMDs and the added SS income. You might prefer to have that money end up in a ROTH instead of taxable. And there is some chance you might be hitting the 32% bracket ...
by randomguy
Tue Oct 06, 2020 12:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should We Ever Save for Children's College?
Replies: 467
Views: 30727

Re: Should We Ever Save for Children's College?

Why would you possibly want to overfund your retirement plan contributions and need to take loans. Why wouldn't you? Right now an undergraduate can borrow at 2.75%. How many people will save that much by avoiding taxing income now in what are most likely their peak earning years? For a some what ex...
by randomguy
Tue Oct 06, 2020 11:30 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should We Ever Save for Children's College?
Replies: 467
Views: 30727

Re: Should We Ever Save for Children's College?

Wait, wasn't that your actual plan? Stop retirement contributions in the years you sent your kids to college? Part of the reason I don't like the blanket "max all tax advantaged space first" is that varies by household. Our household almost maxes a 401K (work percentage cap), a 457b, two ...
by randomguy
Tue Sep 08, 2020 11:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is it never a good time to buy LT Bonds (in recent history)?
Replies: 103
Views: 7290

Re: Why is it never a good time to buy LT Bonds (in recent history)?

11/03/08 30yr 4.33 Are you saying this isn't a drop in rates? OK, just whatever. Different concepts of math I guess. Yep we have a different concept when 06/10/09 30yr 4.76 is considered a rate drop. Must be that new math where 4.76 <4.33;) Or if you want to play slice the time periods to get the r...
by randomguy
Tue Sep 08, 2020 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is it never a good time to buy LT Bonds (in recent history)?
Replies: 103
Views: 7290

Re: Why is it never a good time to buy LT Bonds (in recent history)?

I own long bonds but not primarily as a deflation hedge. Primarily they are to offset equity risk. Yes, rates will more likely go up than down from this point, but so what? When equities crash, rates will come back down for sure. Ok, in stagflation that won’t happen but I really can’t see a sceneri...
by randomguy
Tue Sep 08, 2020 11:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Thoughts on condos?
Replies: 65
Views: 6106

Re: Thoughts on condos?

A lot of the time owning means throwing away a lot more money. The NYT rent vs buy calculator is a huge help on this front. In my city, renting saves a fortune compared to buying. Most of the condos here couldn't possibly be rented for enough to cover full cost of a new mortgage+property taxes+insu...
by randomguy
Tue Sep 08, 2020 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is it never a good time to buy LT Bonds (in recent history)?
Replies: 103
Views: 7290

Re: Why is it never a good time to buy LT Bonds (in recent history)?

I own long bonds but not primarily as a deflation hedge. Primarily they are to offset equity risk. Yes, rates will more likely go up than down from this point, but so what? When equities crash, rates will come back down for sure. Ok, in stagflation that won’t happen but I really can’t see a sceneri...
by randomguy
Mon Sep 07, 2020 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people end up with 10-15 funds in their 401k?
Replies: 60
Views: 4854

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio

Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "There may be better investment strategies than owning just three broad-based index funds but the number of strategies that are worse is infinite." There are an infinite number of better strategies. The problem of course is when picking from those 2 infinitie...
by randomguy
Mon Sep 07, 2020 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people end up with 10-15 funds in their 401k?
Replies: 60
Views: 4854

Re: Why do people end up with 10-15 funds in their 401k?

It seems like new people to the forum asking for a portfolio review often have numerous funds in their 401ks or IRAs where the number, selection, and allocation of the funds don't make much sense. Are these some kind of robo-advisor picks or do people tend to just overload on funds cause they think...
by randomguy
Sat Sep 05, 2020 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did bonds really beat stocks over the last 20 years?
Replies: 34
Views: 3805

Re: Did bonds really beat stocks over the last 20 years?

In the real world, almost all investors contribute over the course of decades. These specific date snapshots are thus pretty meaningless. I think this is the wrong way to look at it. The reality is many people — especially folks on this forum — will spend as much time, if not more, spending down a ...
by randomguy
Fri Sep 04, 2020 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?
Replies: 102
Views: 9468

Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Mid to Late career your new money is much smaller impact than saved money. I put in a decent chunk every year but it isn’t a large fraction of the total portfolio anymore. Say you salt away $50K a year in your mid 50s with a $1M portfolio. If that last 10 years is 0 real you’re not screwed but it s...
by randomguy
Thu Sep 03, 2020 10:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Getting out of a recently purchased condo
Replies: 32
Views: 5245

Re: Getting out of a recently purchased condo

Apples ≠ oranges Flooring / carpeting issues ≠ foundation issues Value is absolutely destroyed on a for sale property with disclosed foundation issues. Especially at this price point. Put yourself in the shoes of a potential buyer: “Gee, the sellers bought a $1.7M house, put this place on the marke...
by randomguy
Thu Sep 03, 2020 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawl Strategy
Replies: 25
Views: 3377

Re: Withdrawl Strategy

[quote=marcopolo post_id=5466751 time=1598853717 user_id=114789 To clarify the problem a) How many kids are we talking about and how roughly how many years at home are we talking. If it just the 2 of you the cliff is at ~66k b) What is the estimated spend/year? c) What is the rough size of taxable ...
by randomguy
Thu Sep 03, 2020 12:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Getting out of a recently purchased condo
Replies: 32
Views: 5245

Re: Getting out of a recently purchased condo

This is not a recommendation because I know very little about these firms, but have you talked to any of those “we’ll buy any house, in any condition” businesses? Assuming that getting an offer from one of them has cost or obligation to you, what do you have to lose? If the offer is too low, you go...
by randomguy
Thu Sep 03, 2020 12:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cardio alternatives to treadmills?
Replies: 107
Views: 7629

Re: Cardio alternatives to treadmills?

Jump rope. :thumbsup Jumping rope is higher impact than walking on a treadmill. Not sure if that is a great idea. Heck walking on a treadmill is such low impact that I am hesitant to suggest pretty much anything else. Swimming and rowing are both low impact but they do require the back muscles to w...
by randomguy
Thu Sep 03, 2020 12:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is your game plan as market is reaching its previous all time high?
Replies: 174
Views: 19619

Re: What is your game plan as market is reaching its previous all time high?

Don't we want the market to reach all-time highs? :) it is at near all time highs I know, it "feels" high... but look at a chart of the Dow for the last 30 years. You won't even be able to count the number of days it made an all-time high. Why is today of concern, and not any of the other...
by randomguy
Thu Sep 03, 2020 12:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: charging an EV
Replies: 250
Views: 15952

Re: charging an EV

That is the EV fantasy. Reality so far hasn't matched up to it. Go look at any of the maintenance logs for the 200k+ mile Teslas and you will not find a single one that is on the original drive train. Most of them are on 3 or 4. Yeah I'm gonna need to see these maintenance logs you're talking about...
by randomguy
Wed Sep 02, 2020 6:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cardio alternatives to treadmills?
Replies: 107
Views: 7629

Re: Cardio alternatives to treadmills?

I’m a big proponent of rowing machines. Good full body workout that lets you get your heart rate up and even squeeze a pretty intense workout into ~10 minutes if you want to! I used to row in high school crew. Coxswain first year, number 4 port oar next two years. (Number 4 oar is a power position....
by randomguy
Wed Sep 02, 2020 6:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cardio alternatives to treadmills?
Replies: 107
Views: 7629

Re: Cardio alternatives to treadmills?

https://www.roguefitness.com/concept-2-erg-package If you can afford it....get all three! Posterior chain, Anterior chain and legs...... I love the concept 2 but I would hesitate to recommend it to someone with back issues. Rowing isn't horrible but I am thinking it stress most back issues more tha...
by randomguy
Wed Sep 02, 2020 5:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: charging an EV
Replies: 250
Views: 15952

Re: charging an EV

I read some reports that charging an EV commercially (out of your house) is more expensive than filling gas. In other words, running an EV is more expensive than running a gas car for the same mileages, can someone confirm or disconfirm this? I can't. We bought a Model X and get free charging at an...
by randomguy
Tue Sep 01, 2020 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investors Were Warned.
Replies: 171
Views: 14698

Re: Investors Were Warned.

Bogleheads: The quarantine for the Coronavirus has given me an opportunity to review some old posts. I was somewhat surprised to read many old posts warning us about the risk in Small-Cap and Small-Cap Value Funds (Small-Cap Value Funds are the worst performing of all Morningstar style categories)....
by randomguy
Mon Aug 31, 2020 6:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do we really have to lower our Safe Withdrawal Rate to 0.5% now?
Replies: 15
Views: 2679

Re: Do we really have to lower our Safe Withdrawal Rate to 0.5% now?

GoldenFinch wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 5:05 am This article is an example of what can happen sometimes when a numbers person wallows in the data a little too much.
We had a long thread on this article recently. I think the general consensus was more that is what happens when a guy needs to generate clicks for his website...
by randomguy
Mon Aug 31, 2020 5:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawl Strategy
Replies: 25
Views: 3377

Re: Withdrawl Strategy

OP stated they are in the 22% tax bracket. How are you getting 0% income tax? Sure, I agree that Roth Conversions make a lot of sense if they are done in the 0% tax bracket, even with some loss of ACA tax credits The OP stated they are working and are currently in 22% tax bracket. I am assuming tha...
by randomguy
Mon Aug 31, 2020 12:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawl Strategy
Replies: 25
Views: 3377

Re: Withdrawl Strategy

Unless you have a large pension, and/or other source of income in retirement, it does not seem that a $1.1M Trad IRA would grow to the point where the RMDs would push you into such a high tax bracket. Hope that helps. Ok, so it was not that brief, but this stuff is complicated... Sure but he isn't ...
by randomguy
Sun Aug 30, 2020 3:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: charging an EV
Replies: 250
Views: 15952

Re: charging an EV

I actually think it’ll be sooner. Solid state battery tech is 2-3 years away according to Toyota. Once that hits, things get interesting quickly. 2025 according to toyota. https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a33435923/toyota-solid-state-battery-2025/ . 2025 is 4-5 years away form limited production n...
by randomguy
Sun Aug 30, 2020 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawl Strategy
Replies: 25
Views: 3377

Re: Withdrawl Strategy

The generic advice seems to be withdraw from taxable first, 401K next and ROTH last. Can i get some thoughts / wise words on this ? The generic advice is just wrong for almost everyone. For pretty much everyone in the world a blended approach (some from the 401(k), some from taxable, some from ROTH...
by randomguy
Thu Aug 27, 2020 9:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: charging an EV
Replies: 250
Views: 15952

Re: charging an EV

An electric engine had about 20 moving parts. An ICE engine has about 2,000. EVs should last considerably longer with significantly less maintenance aside from tires and brakes pads. Except for that whole expensive battery replacement thing. That's just a lazy straw man argument. Batteries don't ro...
by randomguy
Wed Aug 26, 2020 10:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quit corporate job @ age 34 with $1.3M?
Replies: 225
Views: 23140

Re: Quit corporate job @ age 34 with $1.3M?

Fair point, I'm sure noone in that situation would continue saving until they could support 200k, so you would necessarily be living closer to your means. My general point still stands though, which is why would you stop at exactly 1M? or if you did, why would you plan to spend a full 40k a year? J...
by randomguy
Wed Aug 26, 2020 10:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quit corporate job @ age 34 with $1.3M?
Replies: 225
Views: 23140

Re: Quit corporate job @ age 34 with $1.3M?

How much have we all made since 2008? Think about what you’re asking. Have you checked out the Boglehead approach to investing? It's buy the market early, often and hold. Retire when you have accumulated to your desired withdrawal rate. We'll make some and we'll lose some, but the long term buy and...
by randomguy
Wed Aug 26, 2020 9:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quit corporate job @ age 34 with $1.3M?
Replies: 225
Views: 23140

Re: Quit corporate job @ age 34 with $1.3M?

If you live well below your means before retirement, why would that change after retirement? Its really pretty easy to add margin into your expenses estimate which would not be withdrawn consistently in order to allow for a lumpy withdrawal now then as needed without invalidating a withdraw rate. I...
by randomguy
Wed Aug 26, 2020 9:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quit corporate job @ age 34 with $1.3M?
Replies: 225
Views: 23140

Re: Quit corporate job @ age 34 with $1.3M?

And how much richer are you today because of the massive market crash in March than you would have been if there wasn't a crash? How do you expect to make money over the next crash? Unless your playing market timing games, it is hard to make a ton off volatility. How much richer are you for investi...
by randomguy
Tue Aug 25, 2020 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 0.5% Rule (SWR) [Safe Withdrawal Rate]
Replies: 419
Views: 25337

Re: The 0.5% Rule (SWR)

Do you think 1 in 5 of the elderly people you have known spent 6 six years in a combination of at home care, assisted living and skilled nursing before dying? That is absolutely untrue for the people I have know. Wouldn't be near 1 in 5 needing that much care. Seems low to me. In my experience it i...
by randomguy
Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 0.5% Rule (SWR) [Safe Withdrawal Rate]
Replies: 419
Views: 25337

Re: The 0.5% Rule (SWR)

Hmm, I'm too lazy to try and dig out the stats, but I don't think anywhere near 15 to 20% of the population ends up with 2 years of in-home care, plus 2 years of assisted living, plus 2 years of skilled nursing. I believe that is way too high. I don't think the chance of two years in skilled nursin...
by randomguy
Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quit corporate job @ age 34 with $1.3M?
Replies: 225
Views: 23140

Re: Quit corporate job @ age 34 with $1.3M?

Your proposed investment allocation of 85/10/5 has the potential to have a drawdown of over 40% (that's what it did in 2008). Would you be able to stomach that kind of drawdown if it occurs after you quit your job? I know the higher stock allocation shows better success rates in the tool you posted...
by randomguy
Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quit corporate job @ age 34 with $1.3M?
Replies: 225
Views: 23140

Re: Quit corporate job @ age 34 with $1.3M?

I mention in the thread that I have a number of passions and a side hustle that I’d like to grow to maturity. Not even mentioning raising in educating my children, there is a lot more than three years worth of nonwork stuff that needs my attention, let alone the things that I want to do. People who...
by randomguy
Tue Aug 25, 2020 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 0.5% Rule (SWR) [Safe Withdrawal Rate]
Replies: 419
Views: 25337

Re: The 0.5% Rule (SWR)

I believe that WoW2012 has said that something like only 12% of those buy who LTCi ever file a claim pertaining to nursing home care. That's a small fraction by my estimation. And about 76% of those who need LTC in a nursing home are there fewer than three years. Those needing care in such faciliti...
by randomguy
Mon Aug 24, 2020 10:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Plea for Ordinary English
Replies: 128
Views: 10398

Re: A Plea for Ordinary English

It has been forty years since I retired from the US Navy, but I seem to remember that in military correspondence the first time you referred to something you spelled it out and followed it by the accepted abbreviated form. From that point on you could just use the abbreviated form. For example, Uni...
by randomguy
Mon Aug 24, 2020 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safe withdrawal rate for someone retiring at 35? Would real estate help or hurt?
Replies: 59
Views: 7642

Re: Safe withdrawal rate for someone retiring at 35? Would real estate help or hurt?

We know the benchmark is a 4% SWR for a 30 year retirement. This is challenged by today’s low yields, with a new range perhaps falling to 2.5% to 3.5%. This seems appropriate since it’s better to build in a margin of safety. The average American lives till ~80, so if he/she retired at 35, retiremen...