Search found 597 matches

by Alchemist
Sun Apr 11, 2021 7:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14635
Views: 1124053

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I was thinking this market was a bit....euphoric feeling. So I went to check P/E ratios based on forward looking earnings estimates. Turns out they have fallen from 33 a year ago to a mere 21 today. That's right, at a P/E of 21 based on forward earnings estimates the S&P 500 actually might still...
by Alchemist
Sat Apr 10, 2021 7:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 133
Views: 6747

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

Pretty strong statement based on 3 years performance data. You could well be right, and the strong statement warranted, only time will tell. But 3 years is very short. All sorts of excuses can be made for the individual funds: Bad performance of value for QSPRX Calif wildfires and hurricanes for SR...
by Alchemist
Sat Apr 10, 2021 7:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 133
Views: 6747

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

I posted above the last available performance information on all 4 funds, the information is from Bloomberg. You could do a 3 year chart as of early February 2021 based on my data. It wouldn't be perfect but it would give you an idea. I would be interested in seeing the results of your efforts. I t...
by Alchemist
Sat Apr 10, 2021 7:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE: A much stronger predictor of stock returns than many think
Replies: 578
Views: 39284

Re: CAPE: A much stronger predictor of stock returns than many think

Cliff Asness is kind enough to provide us an easily tested real world application. In November of 2012, he used CAPE to predict the return of the S&P 500 over the following decade. The prediction still has a year an half or so to reach a full decade but we can examine how it is going so far. Asn...
by Alchemist
Mon Mar 15, 2021 5:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How has U.S outperformed International?
Replies: 133
Views: 10423

Re: How has U.S outperformed International?

Before responding to Nathan's thoughtful post, it is worth addressing some straw men being attacked. No one is saying the US TSM will beat all other countries. The choice given to US investors is not to pick a basket of individual country ETFs (which are obnoxiously expensive in many cases...) but i...
by Alchemist
Sun Mar 14, 2021 12:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How has U.S outperformed International?
Replies: 133
Views: 10423

Re: How has U.S outperformed International?

If you take one thing versus a group of other things, it will either do better or worse. If you pick one period to examine, and break 'international' down by country, the US did better than some, worse than others. There's no bigger question here to analyze. It simply happened. You missed my point ...
by Alchemist
Sat Mar 13, 2021 5:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How has U.S outperformed International?
Replies: 133
Views: 10423

Re: How has U.S outperformed International?

To further illustrate the cherry-picking issue, let's back up a few years - six, to be exact. Six years ago US and international were tied for fourteen-year returns. So if we stopped the clock then, there was no big divergence. I don't know why anyone would read a lot into one half-decade. If I rea...
by Alchemist
Fri Feb 26, 2021 6:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-evaluating Total World Bond (BNDW)?
Replies: 141
Views: 7815

Re: Re-evaluating Total World Bond (BNDW)?

I largely agree with the last part of this but diversification is not primarily about black swans or cataclysmic events. For example, if US inflation overshoots the 2% target by a few percentage points (e.g. 2-3) and the Fed has a bit of trouble bringing it back to the target for a few years, the E...
by Alchemist
Wed Feb 24, 2021 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-evaluating Total World Bond (BNDW)?
Replies: 141
Views: 7815

Re: Re-evaluating Total World Bond (BNDW)?

Are there now more compelling reasons than before for US investors to consider a total world bond approach? Considering how many foreign central banks had to depend on the U.S. Federal Reserve's generosity with bank liquidity swaps during both he GFC and the pandemic; no. Or put differently: when t...
by Alchemist
Sat Feb 20, 2021 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-evaluating Total World Bond (BNDW)?
Replies: 141
Views: 7815

Re: Re-evaluating Total World Bond (BNDW)?

Do you think that also applies to the EM bond portion of BNDW? I would avoid EM bonds for other reasons. While most (all?) EM central banks lack access to Fed liquidity swaps, EM bonds are at a level of risk that makes them a different class of asset to me from US Treasuries or Developed Market sov...
by Alchemist
Fri Feb 19, 2021 11:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-evaluating Total World Bond (BNDW)?
Replies: 141
Views: 7815

Re: Re-evaluating Total World Bond (BNDW)?

Are there now more compelling reasons than before for US investors to consider a total world bond approach? Considering how many foreign central banks had to depend on the U.S. Federal Reserve's generosity with bank liquidity swaps during both he GFC and the pandemic; no. Or put differently: when t...
by Alchemist
Sun Feb 07, 2021 8:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hotel / AirBnB WiFi - Trust it?
Replies: 32
Views: 2009

Re: Hotel / AirBnB WiFi - Trust it?

I would think a VPN should take care of this problem for you. ExpressVPN and Private Internet Access are two popular ones. Combined with “HTTPS Everywhere” I wouldn’t worry about public wifis for one more second A VPN adds literally no security in this scenario. This is simply wrong and is exactly ...
by Alchemist
Sun Feb 07, 2021 7:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Theoretical model: what happens to asset classes when public debts are cancelled?
Replies: 5
Views: 573

Re: Theoretical model: what happens to asset classes when public debts are cancelled?

I hope this thread survives the mods because it is an interesting question... I do not have an answer but just wanted to note a few things. The first is that this would likely be seen as some kind of partial default by the market, at least at first, causing interest rate spikes on the debt not held ...
by Alchemist
Sun Feb 07, 2021 6:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For Those Who Are 100% US Stocks For Equity Allocation
Replies: 116
Views: 10115

Re: For Those Who Are 100% US Stocks For Equity Allocation

Working age population matters... or it doesn't because revenue source is important... only the US respects capitalism... US attempts to confiscate TikTok (largest post-Facebook social network) from China. Facebook and all Google services are banned outright in China....turnabout is fair play. This...
by Alchemist
Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For Those Who Are 100% US Stocks For Equity Allocation
Replies: 116
Views: 10115

Re: For Those Who Are 100% US Stocks For Equity Allocation

Thoughts/reactions/criticisms? Well first of all, any equity investor must build their portfolio with the possibility of long term market declines in mind. Additionally, since total international index funds have been available to U.S. investors (1996) they have actually underperformed total U.S. b...
by Alchemist
Sun Jan 24, 2021 6:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'The long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble' - GMO
Replies: 205
Views: 23488

Re: 'The long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble' - GMO

A lot of tin foil head garments in here.... Allow me to offer a counter-point. Looking at valuations, today in January 2021, is not very helpful. The combo of shutdowns/stimulus support have added a great deal of noise into the normal financial metrics. According to this week's Economist , there is ...
by Alchemist
Fri Jan 22, 2021 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 223
Views: 15757

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

mokaThought wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 2:46 pm Okay...who shorted GameStop? Fess up.
Me.....my fund is now in a very distant last place with negative 113% return :oops:

Thankfully this is why it’s index funds only for my real portfolio :P
by Alchemist
Sun Jan 17, 2021 11:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Computer Security - Encryption, Antivirus, Passwords
Replies: 9
Views: 1029

Re: Computer Security - Encryption, Antivirus, Passwords

You actually don't have to take the RAM out. Thunderbolt ports, like the Firewire ports they replaced, fully support DMA (Direct Memory Access), so attacking those ports directly is a lot more straightforward than trying to move memory (even when it is removable) without losing its state. But that ...
by Alchemist
Sat Jan 16, 2021 9:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Computer Security - Encryption, Antivirus, Passwords
Replies: 9
Views: 1029

Re: Computer Security - Encryption, Antivirus, Passwords

As a fellow Mac and Keychain user concerned about security, I will try to give some answers to your concerns. Since most people store a LOT of confidential files on their computers (bank statements, passwords, tax returns, etc.) how do you keep them safe, especially on a laptop that is easily stolen...
by Alchemist
Sat Jan 16, 2021 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: On what are you most bullish?
Replies: 266
Views: 18243

Re: On what are you most bullish?

These are projections. And I’d be shocked if that graph actually does pan out. You have to also factor in the number of emerging market economies that rise into the middle class, not just population growth in total Demographic projections are remarkably stable and accurate. We already know the WAP ...
by Alchemist
Sat Jan 16, 2021 6:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: On what are you most bullish?
Replies: 266
Views: 18243

Re: On what are you most bullish?

Would you mind explaining your thesis for why this isn't priced in? The short version, its a boring topic and the changes are slooooow to take effect. The long version... 1) Inefficient global markets. There is no global stock exchange in which all global stocks are traded against each other under ...
by Alchemist
Sat Jan 16, 2021 3:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: On what are you most bullish?
Replies: 266
Views: 18243

Re: On what are you most bullish?

Why is Ex-US a value trap? There's a lot of big international companies that sell a lot of products globally and to the US consumer. What is so special about US equities that commands a higher P/E? There are a number of reasons I am bullish on US equities vice ex-US markets, but the biggest reason ...
by Alchemist
Fri Jan 15, 2021 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: On what are you most bullish?
Replies: 266
Views: 18243

Re: On what are you most bullish?

I am most bullish on the U.S. Total Stock Market.

Ex-US developed stocks are a value trap and Emerging markets are a crap shoot of extreme risks.
by Alchemist
Tue Jan 05, 2021 5:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 223
Views: 15757

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Equivalent Exchange Fund Long: RCL - Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines Short: NKLA - Nikola corporation Nikola isn't in the list. (I was thinking same). Ah rats! Thank you for the heads up, I have replaced it with GME and edited my original post. NKLA is such an obvious short case it's almost tempting t...
by Alchemist
Mon Jan 04, 2021 6:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 223
Views: 15757

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Equivalent Exchange Fund

Long:

RCL - Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines


Short:

GME - Gamestop


Editted 5 Jan: Original short position not in Russell 3000 (NKLA) so substituted GME as my short position
by Alchemist
Sat Jan 02, 2021 11:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest
Replies: 642
Views: 15951

Re: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

3801

Mr market needs a breathe after the last two years.
by Alchemist
Fri Jan 01, 2021 5:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14635
Views: 1124053

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

It has indeed been a soaring year. VTSAX is up 20.99% for the year. While less impressive, even VTIAX had a good year posting a 11.28% total return. Bringing up the rear but still eeking out a positive return is DFA's SCV fund DFSVX with a slightly-better-than-cash return of 2.23%. All performance n...
by Alchemist
Mon Dec 07, 2020 5:34 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: is it ok to download Big Sur for MAC yet??
Replies: 47
Views: 3914

Re: is it ok to download Big Sur for MAC yet??

I've been running Big Sur since its release date. No issues so far.
by Alchemist
Sun Dec 06, 2020 3:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 23.6% of All US Dollars Were Created in the Last Year
Replies: 21
Views: 2873

Re: 23.6% of All US Dollars Were Created in the Last Year

I believe Congress is going to keep printing money even still. It seems most of it is being shifted into stocks rather than consumption. This may be unfortunate for those who save cash and keep a lot in bonds. I'd love to hear any thoughts and if something like this would be enough for you to chang...
by Alchemist
Sat Dec 05, 2020 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14635
Views: 1124053

Re: Investing or Gambling?

That's cherry picking. Change the starting year to 2000 and DFSVX returned 9.15% vs. VTSAX's 7.81% (both nominal). Further, all of the outperformance of VTSAX over DFSVX in the last decade has occurred since mid-2018. Making investment decisions on the basis of two years of data is not appropriate,...
by Alchemist
Fri Dec 04, 2020 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?
Replies: 164
Views: 21129

Re: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?

3 month returns: VTI 4.83% VXUS 8.98% The tide may be changing. Who knows (no one). (I just picked the first thread I found about abandoning international, there have been dozens of others) I think it is fair to compare the two, but wouldn't the date of the OP be a more apt starting point? Since Ju...
by Alchemist
Wed Nov 25, 2020 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14635
Views: 1124053

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Interest rates have been generally falling for the last 700 years , so they may stay this low for quite a long time. Falling interest rates are, IMHO, the big factor that Shiller and others have ignored when complaining about rising stock valuations over the last ~30 years. I fail to understand eve...
by Alchemist
Thu Nov 19, 2020 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed up With Flagship
Replies: 291
Views: 20246

Re: Fed up With Flagship

To best of my knowledge Fidelity has following levels: - $250K- Fidelity Premium Services (an assigned representative, separate phone number) - $1M - Fidelity Private Clients Fidelity does not advertise their service levels. I had ancient ESPP account with Fidelity and a couple of years ago I got F...
by Alchemist
Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are some good boglehead principles around real estate?
Replies: 52
Views: 6179

Re: What are some good boglehead principles around real estate?

My Boglehead real estate principle is not to buy too much house. Buying a needlessly expensive house will impress your mom and create the appearance of success among broke people, but it will cost dramatically more to aquire, more to fill with stuff, more in taxes and insurance, and you probably ca...
by Alchemist
Tue Nov 10, 2020 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Highest US Fed Debt to GDP Ratio - Hedge w/ Bitcoin?
Replies: 19
Views: 1334

Re: Highest US Fed Debt to GDP Ratio - Hedge w/ Bitcoin?

I'm very aware of many of the opinions on here relating to Bitcoin. I've personally stayed away from it but have recently been thinking more about its efficacy in my portfolio based on some conversations with friends regarding the unavoidable impacts of our Debt to GDP ratio in the US. THE REASONIN...
by Alchemist
Sat Nov 07, 2020 2:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How on earth can overweighting US stock over international stock possibly be considered Boglehead?
Replies: 253
Views: 16166

Re: How on earth can overweighting US stock over international stock possibly be considered Boglehead?

Robot Monster wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 1:42 pm
flaccidsteele wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 1:37 pm You can diversify yourself into poverty

I’ll just stick with a pro-US plan as per Bogle and Buffett
"Diversify Yourself Into Poverity" is a book that needs to be written.
Given his track record of picking 'diversifiers', I think Larry Swedroe could write it. :twisted:
by Alchemist
Sat Oct 31, 2020 10:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 363
Views: 77857

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

nisiprius wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 6:28 am Hear, hear!

To this I would add, that in thinking about the relationship between bonds and stocks,

3) a contract to pay you specific numbers of dollars on specific dates is fundamentally different from a share of the fluctuating profits of a business.
I can certainly agree with that!
by Alchemist
Sat Oct 31, 2020 12:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 363
Views: 77857

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

I'm not sure the result follows from the premise. If there is "a lot" of uncertainty, wouldn't a more logical conclusion be broad diversification among different asset classes instead of a heavy US stocks and USD bonds portfolio? I certainly do not mean to speak for Nisiprius, but as some...
by Alchemist
Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Beware of Financial Alchemy"
Replies: 13
Views: 2068

Re: "Beware of Financial Alchemy"

Is stock/bond allocation left to alchemy? As an Alchemist I will try to answer :happy My personal answer is the same regardless of yields and follows Warren Buffett's advice. To paraphrase the Oracle of Omaha, put as much money into safe assets (CDs, cash, STT, high quality bonds/TBM) as you need t...
by Alchemist
Sat Oct 24, 2020 6:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Moving to Fidelity from Vanguard and Charles Schwab
Replies: 36
Views: 3422

Re: Moving to Fidelity from Vanguard and Charles Schwab

bruingent wrote: Sat Oct 24, 2020 4:58 pm My question mainly was would buying Vanguard ETFs from Vanguard has any more benefit vs buying Vanguard ETFs from Fidelity.
There will be no difference for purchasing Vanguard ETFs at Fidelity vs Vanguard.
by Alchemist
Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Abandoning Ship, Developing ‘New Brand Image’ has removed its ship logo from corporate docum
Replies: 107
Views: 9570

Re: Vanguard Abandoning Ship, Developing ‘New Brand Image’ has removed its ship logo from corporate docum

Won't happen. Jack cared, Vanguard does not. Sadly this is correct. Jack didn't want to build the biggest mutual fund and brokerage company in the world, he wanted to build the best mutual fund and brokerage company. Customer service was part of that vision and unfortunately the first part of that ...
by Alchemist
Wed Oct 21, 2020 5:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seriously, what is going on with international?
Replies: 277
Views: 26426

Re: Seriously, what is going on with international?

This makes me wonder if the market is truely efficient. People here tell me that I'm crazy for being invested 60% in US stocks lol. Despite just aiming for a market cap weighted portfolio. They totally ignore how great the returns were and still are. The simple answer is that the market is not effi...
by Alchemist
Wed Oct 21, 2020 5:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Most Trusted Risk Premia Factors?
Replies: 30
Views: 1538

Re: Most Trusted Risk Premia Factors?

Dirt cheap market beta, all others are interesting but suspect.
by Alchemist
Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why international underperformed - it’s the earnings growth rate!
Replies: 55
Views: 6190

Re: Why international underperformed - it’s the earnings growth rate!

Edited to add: My comments below on how government funding / deficits work are completely incorrect and were based on a misunderstanding of macroeconomics. For further information on this incorrect view (MMT), please see the below academic paper correcting these views via the mainstream economic mo...
by Alchemist
Sun Oct 18, 2020 5:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why international underperformed - it’s the earnings growth rate!
Replies: 55
Views: 6190

Re: Why international underperformed - it’s the earnings growth rate!

Chicken Little wrote: Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:01 am
How many times can we "respond correctly".
Until you encounter undesirable levels of inflation.
by Alchemist
Sat Oct 17, 2020 5:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why international underperformed - it’s the earnings growth rate!
Replies: 55
Views: 6190

Re: Why international underperformed - it’s the earnings growth rate!

Japan has been stagnating since their demographics went off a cliff. Europe got a double whammy in the wake of the great financial crisis. They chose the wrong policy strategy of austerity instead of stimulus, and their own demographics went into decline at about the same time. The U.S. responded co...
by Alchemist
Sat Oct 17, 2020 5:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Large Growth disliked?
Replies: 77
Views: 8205

Re: Why is Large Growth disliked?

It's not my fault the academic literature defines premium as the difference in arithmetic returns. If that is the case, then the factor research is even more useless than I had originally thought. To illustrate: https://i.imgur.com/HtRqmhU.png 100% total stock market vs DFSVX, total stock market wi...
by Alchemist
Fri Oct 16, 2020 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Large Growth disliked?
Replies: 77
Views: 8205

Re: Why is Large Growth disliked?

DFSVX realized a gain of 0.79% per year relative to TSM, after expenses. This is false . DFSVX grew $10k to $126,893 from inception until 30 Sept 2020. VTSMX grew $10k into $127,765 over that same time period. There was *no* premium. They tied in performance, but DFSVX was far more volatile with 20...
by Alchemist
Wed Oct 14, 2020 5:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Large Growth disliked?
Replies: 77
Views: 8205

Re: Why is Large Growth disliked?

Expected return is measured by arithmetic average, not geometric average. Over the past 27 years, HmL and SmB (and funds implementing them) did deliver positive average returns, which was all that was claimed by the academics. CAGR is equivalent to the expected utility if you have a log utility fun...
by Alchemist
Tue Oct 13, 2020 4:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Large Growth disliked?
Replies: 77
Views: 8205

Re: Why is Large Growth disliked?

That is not a valid comparison. The question isn't whether 100% total stock market has outperformed 100% SVC. The question is whether tilting towards SVC results in higher average utility . Did you know that 1000% total stock market underperformed t-bills? Total stock market surely looks bad. DFA's...