Search found 620 matches

by Alchemist
Sun Jun 13, 2021 2:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The S&P 500 PE ratio is currently ~36. What would the PE be under old accounting rules?
Replies: 39
Views: 3915

Re: The S&P 500 PE ratio is currently ~36. What would the PE be under old accounting rules?

Current PE is not meaningful given the artificially depressed earnings the last 12 months have due to pandemic related shutdowns. Forward PE is much more meaningful. Currently the S&P 500 forward PE for the next 12 months is 22. That means so long as earnings come in as estimated; prices could r...
by Alchemist
Fri May 28, 2021 2:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio
Replies: 2253
Views: 212823

Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Most people have no problem with the U.S. total market and say it's neutral relative to sectors, styles, and sizes. Why, then, are they so adamant about not being neutral relative to countries? The U.S. market is only neutral to sectors, styles, and sizes when you disregard that there are other cou...
by Alchemist
Thu May 27, 2021 6:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio
Replies: 2253
Views: 212823

Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

I find it odd the religious level zealotry some people have for trying to demand everyone have the same portfolio choices they do.....its just weird. :confused I can sorta understand the argument based on valuations that some folks give as a forward looking argument in favor of adding international ...
by Alchemist
Sun May 23, 2021 5:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Implications of global fertility bust for investors ?
Replies: 13
Views: 2344

Re: Implications of global fertility bust for investors ?

You’re on to something important that nearly everyone around here is intent on ignoring because it doesn’t fit the normal way they look at the world…..ie backtests and data mining. You can see my thoughts below, but be warned this is apparently a “trolling topic” so your thread may be closed :? http...
by Alchemist
Fri May 21, 2021 6:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle's ghost warns about 401(k): Marketwatch article claims to use Bogle forecast model
Replies: 13
Views: 1641

Re: Jack Bogle's ghost warns about 401(k): Marketwatch article claims to use Bogle forecast model

Jack Bogle would never advise someone make portfolio decisions based on his simple model. His reference to it had more to do with explaining the fundamentals behind stocks than actually trying to predict the future. It also makes no consideration for interest rates and how they would make stocks mor...
by Alchemist
Fri May 21, 2021 6:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value and Momentum- Zero premium for twenty years
Replies: 60
Views: 3972

Re: Value and Momentum- Zero premium for twenty years

XacTactX wrote: Thu May 20, 2021 10:52 am 2. Fama-French define the value factor as P/B but an important characteristic about factors is they don't have to be strictly defined in one way.
What good is a 'factor' if you can simply re-define it at will?
by Alchemist
Sun May 16, 2021 3:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Beware of Sci-Fi Portfolios"
Replies: 185
Views: 14844

Re: "Beware of Sci-Fi Portfolios"

Set aside the Alternatives and even the Factor Funds for a moment. Any advisor that puts their clients in a 15 fund portfolio with an average ER or 1.05% plus their advisor fee; is not a good advisor. Certainly not one that is boglehead friendly. Just to break even the portfolio will have to outperf...
by Alchemist
Sun May 16, 2021 12:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Beware of Sci-Fi Portfolios"
Replies: 185
Views: 14844

Re: "Beware of Sci-Fi Portfolios"

It is pretty clear to me that Alan Roth's article was a critique of Academic Research, Factor Investing, Alternative Investments, and Advisory firms in general. We don't need a decoder ring to know which advisory firm and which two well known factor investing practitioners he was criticizing specif...
by Alchemist
Sat May 15, 2021 11:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 15871
Views: 1238051

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

the inflation scare is transitory, once capacity catches up with demand in commodities in a few months people freaking out over inflation will look as silly as they did in 2011 Larry Summers is gonna look pretty silly! "Summers says inflation indicators 'flashing red alarm'" Run for the l...
by Alchemist
Sat May 15, 2021 11:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Beware of Sci-Fi Portfolios"
Replies: 185
Views: 14844

Re: "Beware of Sci-Fi Portfolios"

I read Larry’ s books as i read alot of books. How come all these alternative investment have been doing terrible? Is there really a time in history they performed well. Overall good article Allan Roth. One can just invest in a single fund like sp500 fund and most likely come out ahead of this port...
by Alchemist
Sat May 15, 2021 6:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 15871
Views: 1238051

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Meh, CAPE is about as reliable as tarot cards and chicken bones. Speaking of 2011 there were plenty of CAPE predictions back then too that have turned out to be nonsense.

The US economy and equity market is set to continue soaring.
by Alchemist
Sat May 15, 2021 6:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 15871
Views: 1238051

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Reason for Bullishness: 1) Forward PE of the S&P 500 is still only 21; if earnings come in anywhere near expectation there is plenty of room to run with interest rates still low 2) the inflation scare is transitory, once capacity catches up with demand in commodities in a few months people freak...
by Alchemist
Fri May 14, 2021 9:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR Style Premia Update; Certainly Low Correlations
Replies: 50
Views: 3066

Re: AQR Style Premia Update; Certainly Low Correlations

Are you sure? What if you had entered the stock market in 2000 and evaluated your results in 2012? Would have given up on the market factor forever? The S&P500 underperformed TBills for three long stretches: 1929-43, 1966-82, 2000-12. It’s really really hard to know when to give up on a strateg...
by Alchemist
Thu May 13, 2021 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR Style Premia Update; Certainly Low Correlations
Replies: 50
Views: 3066

Re: AQR Style Premia Update; Certainly Low Correlations

Random Walker wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 7:48 am Cant judge a strategy by the outcome.
Sounds like something an advisor would say to excuse bad advice.

The *only* way to judge a strategy is by its outcome.
by Alchemist
Thu May 13, 2021 4:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR Style Premia Update; Certainly Low Correlations
Replies: 50
Views: 3066

Re: AQR Style Premia Update; Certainly Low Correlations

You could have just held cash in a HYSA and done far better. Even in a brokerage account a STT fund would have stomped QSPRX. Also don't forget that in addition to the huge ER of the fund, you need to pay an advisor for the privilege of having access to it :oops: So the middlemen are getting paid at...
by Alchemist
Tue May 04, 2021 4:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do small caps outperform during inflation?
Replies: 17
Views: 1903

Re: Why do small caps outperform during inflation?

I think you guys are over thinking this. My assumption has always been that two things were going on: 1) Small cap companies tend to have high debt loads. Inflation makes those debts smaller and easier to deal with 2) Alot of regional banks and other financial institutions in the small cap space. Hi...
by Alchemist
Mon Apr 26, 2021 6:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio
Replies: 2253
Views: 212823

Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Right. And there's a reason I didn't hold just Apple stock, and that is because the future is unknowable and holding all of your eggs in one basket is risky. This is the same reason I don't just hold US stocks, regardless of the "outcome" over the last 10-20 years which you are confusing ...
by Alchemist
Sun Apr 25, 2021 4:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 15871
Views: 1238051

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Beensabu wrote: Sat Apr 24, 2021 12:58 pm I also want a winged unicorn that can fly me through rainbows.
I did not realize until this moment how very much I also want a winged unicorn to fly me through rainbows...


But I'll settle for S&P 500 closing the year at >4,000 :sharebeer
by Alchemist
Sun Apr 25, 2021 4:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio
Replies: 2253
Views: 212823

Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Much simpler to have just owned apple stock for this period. Much better returns, less cost to own, less complexity. The one stock portfolio. If you had been both recommending such a move and actually followed through with it yourself 10 or 15 or 20 years ago then you would deserve a lot of credit ...
by Alchemist
Sat Apr 24, 2021 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio
Replies: 2253
Views: 212823

Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

But it’s sad that this thread promotes lack of regional diversification, and that certain posters continuously link within the forum back to this thread. The last thing newbie investors should be taught is to ignore mainstream portfolio recommendations, like those that are created by Vanguard, Fide...
by Alchemist
Thu Apr 22, 2021 4:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio
Replies: 2253
Views: 212823

Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

] We've got folks in this thread (including you) giving high-fives to each other over an SP500 + cash portfolio. That's most definitely a poor level of diversification. No exposure to stocks outside of 1 single country, no exposure to small companies, no exposure to term risk. To be clear, there ar...
by Alchemist
Wed Apr 21, 2021 5:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Here's my portfolio
Replies: 155
Views: 28552

Re: Here's my portfolio

Has this portfolio outperformed 85% VTI and 15% BND? By how much? Was it really worth the time and trouble to put this together? My guess is that Vineviz did not know 10 years ago that his portfolio would be outperformed by a US Total market fund. Maybe if you have a time machine you could go back ...
by Alchemist
Wed Apr 21, 2021 5:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio
Replies: 2253
Views: 212823

Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

But then again, the “Jack Bogle two fund portfolio” that many are describing in this thread is pretty poorly diversified to begin with. This is the height of silliness. VTSAX, and other US TSM stock funds like it, own around 3,000 stocks across all size cohorts and across all industries. VTSAX is a...
by Alchemist
Sun Apr 11, 2021 7:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 15871
Views: 1238051

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I was thinking this market was a bit....euphoric feeling. So I went to check P/E ratios based on forward looking earnings estimates. Turns out they have fallen from 33 a year ago to a mere 21 today. That's right, at a P/E of 21 based on forward earnings estimates the S&P 500 actually might still...
by Alchemist
Sat Apr 10, 2021 7:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 133
Views: 6946

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

Pretty strong statement based on 3 years performance data. You could well be right, and the strong statement warranted, only time will tell. But 3 years is very short. All sorts of excuses can be made for the individual funds: Bad performance of value for QSPRX Calif wildfires and hurricanes for SR...
by Alchemist
Sat Apr 10, 2021 7:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 133
Views: 6946

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

I posted above the last available performance information on all 4 funds, the information is from Bloomberg. You could do a 3 year chart as of early February 2021 based on my data. It wouldn't be perfect but it would give you an idea. I would be interested in seeing the results of your efforts. I t...
by Alchemist
Sat Apr 10, 2021 7:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE: A much stronger predictor of stock returns than many think
Replies: 578
Views: 39873

Re: CAPE: A much stronger predictor of stock returns than many think

Cliff Asness is kind enough to provide us an easily tested real world application. In November of 2012, he used CAPE to predict the return of the S&P 500 over the following decade. The prediction still has a year an half or so to reach a full decade but we can examine how it is going so far. Asn...
by Alchemist
Mon Mar 15, 2021 5:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How has U.S outperformed International?
Replies: 133
Views: 10716

Re: How has U.S outperformed International?

Before responding to Nathan's thoughtful post, it is worth addressing some straw men being attacked. No one is saying the US TSM will beat all other countries. The choice given to US investors is not to pick a basket of individual country ETFs (which are obnoxiously expensive in many cases...) but i...
by Alchemist
Sun Mar 14, 2021 12:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How has U.S outperformed International?
Replies: 133
Views: 10716

Re: How has U.S outperformed International?

If you take one thing versus a group of other things, it will either do better or worse. If you pick one period to examine, and break 'international' down by country, the US did better than some, worse than others. There's no bigger question here to analyze. It simply happened. You missed my point ...
by Alchemist
Sat Mar 13, 2021 5:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How has U.S outperformed International?
Replies: 133
Views: 10716

Re: How has U.S outperformed International?

To further illustrate the cherry-picking issue, let's back up a few years - six, to be exact. Six years ago US and international were tied for fourteen-year returns. So if we stopped the clock then, there was no big divergence. I don't know why anyone would read a lot into one half-decade. If I rea...
by Alchemist
Fri Feb 26, 2021 6:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-evaluating Total World Bond (BNDW)?
Replies: 152
Views: 9770

Re: Re-evaluating Total World Bond (BNDW)?

I largely agree with the last part of this but diversification is not primarily about black swans or cataclysmic events. For example, if US inflation overshoots the 2% target by a few percentage points (e.g. 2-3) and the Fed has a bit of trouble bringing it back to the target for a few years, the E...
by Alchemist
Wed Feb 24, 2021 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-evaluating Total World Bond (BNDW)?
Replies: 152
Views: 9770

Re: Re-evaluating Total World Bond (BNDW)?

Are there now more compelling reasons than before for US investors to consider a total world bond approach? Considering how many foreign central banks had to depend on the U.S. Federal Reserve's generosity with bank liquidity swaps during both he GFC and the pandemic; no. Or put differently: when t...
by Alchemist
Sat Feb 20, 2021 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-evaluating Total World Bond (BNDW)?
Replies: 152
Views: 9770

Re: Re-evaluating Total World Bond (BNDW)?

Do you think that also applies to the EM bond portion of BNDW? I would avoid EM bonds for other reasons. While most (all?) EM central banks lack access to Fed liquidity swaps, EM bonds are at a level of risk that makes them a different class of asset to me from US Treasuries or Developed Market sov...
by Alchemist
Fri Feb 19, 2021 11:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-evaluating Total World Bond (BNDW)?
Replies: 152
Views: 9770

Re: Re-evaluating Total World Bond (BNDW)?

Are there now more compelling reasons than before for US investors to consider a total world bond approach? Considering how many foreign central banks had to depend on the U.S. Federal Reserve's generosity with bank liquidity swaps during both he GFC and the pandemic; no. Or put differently: when t...
by Alchemist
Sun Feb 07, 2021 8:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hotel / AirBnB WiFi - Trust it?
Replies: 32
Views: 2046

Re: Hotel / AirBnB WiFi - Trust it?

I would think a VPN should take care of this problem for you. ExpressVPN and Private Internet Access are two popular ones. Combined with “HTTPS Everywhere” I wouldn’t worry about public wifis for one more second A VPN adds literally no security in this scenario. This is simply wrong and is exactly ...
by Alchemist
Sun Feb 07, 2021 7:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Theoretical model: what happens to asset classes when public debts are cancelled?
Replies: 5
Views: 580

Re: Theoretical model: what happens to asset classes when public debts are cancelled?

I hope this thread survives the mods because it is an interesting question... I do not have an answer but just wanted to note a few things. The first is that this would likely be seen as some kind of partial default by the market, at least at first, causing interest rate spikes on the debt not held ...
by Alchemist
Sun Feb 07, 2021 6:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For Those Who Are 100% US Stocks For Equity Allocation
Replies: 116
Views: 10295

Re: For Those Who Are 100% US Stocks For Equity Allocation

Working age population matters... or it doesn't because revenue source is important... only the US respects capitalism... US attempts to confiscate TikTok (largest post-Facebook social network) from China. Facebook and all Google services are banned outright in China....turnabout is fair play. This...
by Alchemist
Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For Those Who Are 100% US Stocks For Equity Allocation
Replies: 116
Views: 10295

Re: For Those Who Are 100% US Stocks For Equity Allocation

Thoughts/reactions/criticisms? Well first of all, any equity investor must build their portfolio with the possibility of long term market declines in mind. Additionally, since total international index funds have been available to U.S. investors (1996) they have actually underperformed total U.S. b...
by Alchemist
Sun Jan 24, 2021 6:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'The long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble' - GMO
Replies: 226
Views: 28411

Re: 'The long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble' - GMO

A lot of tin foil head garments in here.... Allow me to offer a counter-point. Looking at valuations, today in January 2021, is not very helpful. The combo of shutdowns/stimulus support have added a great deal of noise into the normal financial metrics. According to this week's Economist , there is ...
by Alchemist
Fri Jan 22, 2021 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 233
Views: 17542

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

mokaThought wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 2:46 pm Okay...who shorted GameStop? Fess up.
Me.....my fund is now in a very distant last place with negative 113% return :oops:

Thankfully this is why it’s index funds only for my real portfolio :P
by Alchemist
Sun Jan 17, 2021 11:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Computer Security - Encryption, Antivirus, Passwords
Replies: 9
Views: 1289

Re: Computer Security - Encryption, Antivirus, Passwords

You actually don't have to take the RAM out. Thunderbolt ports, like the Firewire ports they replaced, fully support DMA (Direct Memory Access), so attacking those ports directly is a lot more straightforward than trying to move memory (even when it is removable) without losing its state. But that ...
by Alchemist
Sat Jan 16, 2021 9:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Computer Security - Encryption, Antivirus, Passwords
Replies: 9
Views: 1289

Re: Computer Security - Encryption, Antivirus, Passwords

As a fellow Mac and Keychain user concerned about security, I will try to give some answers to your concerns. Since most people store a LOT of confidential files on their computers (bank statements, passwords, tax returns, etc.) how do you keep them safe, especially on a laptop that is easily stolen...
by Alchemist
Sat Jan 16, 2021 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: On what are you most bullish?
Replies: 266
Views: 19085

Re: On what are you most bullish?

These are projections. And I’d be shocked if that graph actually does pan out. You have to also factor in the number of emerging market economies that rise into the middle class, not just population growth in total Demographic projections are remarkably stable and accurate. We already know the WAP ...
by Alchemist
Sat Jan 16, 2021 6:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: On what are you most bullish?
Replies: 266
Views: 19085

Re: On what are you most bullish?

Would you mind explaining your thesis for why this isn't priced in? The short version, its a boring topic and the changes are slooooow to take effect. The long version... 1) Inefficient global markets. There is no global stock exchange in which all global stocks are traded against each other under ...
by Alchemist
Sat Jan 16, 2021 3:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: On what are you most bullish?
Replies: 266
Views: 19085

Re: On what are you most bullish?

Why is Ex-US a value trap? There's a lot of big international companies that sell a lot of products globally and to the US consumer. What is so special about US equities that commands a higher P/E? There are a number of reasons I am bullish on US equities vice ex-US markets, but the biggest reason ...
by Alchemist
Fri Jan 15, 2021 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: On what are you most bullish?
Replies: 266
Views: 19085

Re: On what are you most bullish?

I am most bullish on the U.S. Total Stock Market.

Ex-US developed stocks are a value trap and Emerging markets are a crap shoot of extreme risks.
by Alchemist
Tue Jan 05, 2021 5:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 233
Views: 17542

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Equivalent Exchange Fund Long: RCL - Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines Short: NKLA - Nikola corporation Nikola isn't in the list. (I was thinking same). Ah rats! Thank you for the heads up, I have replaced it with GME and edited my original post. NKLA is such an obvious short case it's almost tempting t...
by Alchemist
Mon Jan 04, 2021 6:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 233
Views: 17542

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Equivalent Exchange Fund

Long:

RCL - Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines


Short:

GME - Gamestop


Editted 5 Jan: Original short position not in Russell 3000 (NKLA) so substituted GME as my short position
by Alchemist
Sat Jan 02, 2021 11:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest
Replies: 646
Views: 17626

Re: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

3801

Mr market needs a breathe after the last two years.
by Alchemist
Fri Jan 01, 2021 5:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 15871
Views: 1238051

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

It has indeed been a soaring year. VTSAX is up 20.99% for the year. While less impressive, even VTIAX had a good year posting a 11.28% total return. Bringing up the rear but still eeking out a positive return is DFA's SCV fund DFSVX with a slightly-better-than-cash return of 2.23%. All performance n...