Search found 55 matches

by ratesguy
Tue Oct 14, 2014 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does your ROTH hold risky or stable items?
Replies: 56
Views: 5837

Re: Does your ROTH hold risky or stable items?

I like REITs in the Roth. The passthrough structure in a non-taxable account means the underlying business income is never taxed.
by ratesguy
Sun Sep 21, 2014 12:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Share your Hot-Rod Portfolio
Replies: 55
Views: 6646

Re: Share your Hot-Rod Portfolio

NY Muni CEFs, yielding about 6.5% triple tax exempt

PYN
BSE
NRK

Overlay of USD denominated Nikkei 225 futures
by ratesguy
Fri Jun 27, 2014 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Being Done" Saving: White Coat Investor blog post
Replies: 47
Views: 10433

Re: "Being Done" Saving: White Coat Investor blog post

One can also shift the goal post and plan on savings going to kids, charities, grand kids

Also build into planning the idea of social security and Medicare means-testing as a strong possibility in the next 10-20 years - the fiscal path is unsustainable as boomers retire

Or a wealth tax! #piketty
by ratesguy
Tue Jun 24, 2014 8:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Conversion of Bill Gross
Replies: 22
Views: 3308

Re: The Conversion of Bill Gross

To be fair if you were in bonds the past dozen or so years you did just fine with less vol.
by ratesguy
Sun Jun 22, 2014 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve as Predictor of Future Rates?
Replies: 31
Views: 2810

Re: Yield Curve as Predictor of Future Rates?

I believe it expectations and term-premia. The latter is basically compensation for inflation risk which is perceived as asymmetric. Inflation is unlikely to go deeply negative but it might go sharply positive. Bond investors, even buying into a generously steep yield curve, have periodically been d...
by ratesguy
Sun Jun 22, 2014 9:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone here use Personal Capital?
Replies: 62
Views: 39547

Re: Anyone here use Personal Capital?

Not worth it....they called me repeatedly to try to sell wealth management services ....I closed my account and still they call. I blocked the number but they call from multiple numbers hence I've blocked even more

And the site does not offer much that you don't get on mint
by ratesguy
Sat Jun 21, 2014 5:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Municipal Bond Funds - How will they react to rising rates?
Replies: 10
Views: 1653

Re: Municipal Bond Funds - How will they react to rising rat

Rising rate expectations as mentioned are built into the yield curve. It has to be worse to incur losses over a given time horizon- if rates rise as expected than the income will offset the price decline. That's how the bond math works. But Munis don't trade in lock step with risk free rates because...
by ratesguy
Sat Jun 21, 2014 6:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Torn between active and passive bond funds
Replies: 16
Views: 2585

Re: Torn between active and passive bond funds

If you want a treasury, TIPS or GSE MBS fund then stay indexed and low cost. In terms of rising rates there is no reason to think that bond managers are better than equity manager at timing the market. The expectation of higher rates is built into the steep yield curve. If you think 10y yields are g...
by ratesguy
Fri Jun 20, 2014 6:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Too Much in 529's?
Replies: 25
Views: 2573

Re: Too Much in 529's?

Once you max out tax-deferred space I favor going as large as you can in the 529. I also like multiple plans with different AAs to try to have different principal vs gains when I tap them. I am doing NY, Utah and Nevada. Getting it out of the way will let me focus on what else to do in taxable space...
by ratesguy
Fri Jun 20, 2014 6:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Companies that issue inflation adjusted SPIA
Replies: 4
Views: 684

Re: Companies that issue inflation adjusted SPIA

I got a quote on a deferred income annuity (longevity insurance) which included a COLA based on CPI-U. This is future starting so presumably more difficult to price than the immediate annuity

I got the quote on the Vanguard site, it came back instantly with a quote from AIG
by ratesguy
Fri Jun 20, 2014 5:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cost of car compared to Gross Income
Replies: 138
Views: 17496

Re: Cost of car compared to Gross Income

I'm not sure cost to income or wealth is the right way to think about it. It's a value proposition. I've never bought a new car even though for quite nice ones it would be a pretty small percentage. My income has gone up by many multiples over the years but what I like to pay for a car hasn't. I nev...
by ratesguy
Tue Jun 17, 2014 5:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Are MBS's safe for bond heavy portfolios?
Replies: 14
Views: 1144

Re: Are MBS's safe for bond heavy portfolios?

Fannie and Freddie where taken into conservatorship by the government during the crisis. They are money good. GNMAs mainly differ b/c they are a different type of borrower with a different prepayment profile (they tend to be FHA supported low down payment mortgages). You get paid for the negative co...
by ratesguy
Tue Jun 17, 2014 5:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Life Insurance Term 80
Replies: 31
Views: 25677

Re: Life Insurance Term 80

I have NWM term 80 and I am happy with it. It is not whole life. I preferred it to level term b/c at the time I was about 30 and did not know how my career, family, etc would shape out. It is very cheap to start but increases with age in a way that is meant to be actuarially fair. Now that I have th...
by ratesguy
Tue Jun 17, 2014 5:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to handle maxing a 401k with unknown bonus amount
Replies: 9
Views: 1800

Re: How to handle maxing a 401k with unknown bonus amount

It will probably be capped by HR. My firm has a "spillover" election that allows me to choose to stop contributing at 17,500 or contribute after tax dollars You can put in 17,500. The match is an allowable addition to that. (When I started I thought the cap was on the combined contribution...
by ratesguy
Tue Jun 17, 2014 4:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should one ever do a cash-out refi to invest?
Replies: 38
Views: 5627

Re: Should one ever do a cash-out refi to invest?

The Ohio 529 12y CD yields 2% not 5% as suggested by a previous poster. I was about to drop everything for that!
by ratesguy
Sun Jun 15, 2014 7:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FT: The myth of small-cap outperformance
Replies: 42
Views: 5372

Re: FT: The myth of small-cap outperformance

I have seen this argued back and forth in a lot of Much of this seems so sensitive to start and end dates. Since 1926 you had an epic rally, crash, depression, devaluation vs gold, world war 2, the baby boom and post war growth "miracle" - from rebuilding bobbed out Europe and Japan, the g...
by ratesguy
Sat Jun 14, 2014 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FT: The myth of small-cap outperformance
Replies: 42
Views: 5372

FT: The myth of small-cap outperformance

Gist: small cap outperformance all comes in the first year of a bull market and underperforms the other 75pct of the time. So CAGR studies are very sensitive to start date. And now isn't likely the time for small caps...according to Ken Fisher The myth of small-cap outperformance -- By Ken Fisher --...
by ratesguy
Wed Jun 11, 2014 11:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Are Insurance Stocks So Cheap?
Replies: 18
Views: 3132

Re: Why Are Insurance Stocks So Cheap?

If you look at life insurance stocks they tend to track 10y yields. Low rates are tough on the business model but I think not as bad as perceived - they have already hedged most of that risk out.

But it's not a growth industry either. But unloved, under owned = interesting to have a deeper look
by ratesguy
Wed Jun 11, 2014 11:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is the first million really the hardest?
Replies: 64
Views: 11397

Re: Is the first million really the hardest?

I think it could be harder. I have had some great returns from very non bogleheadish things - market timing across a variety of markets, trading options, trading VIX, trading futures on all kinds of things. Being generally leveraged long equities most of the time. I'm more inclined to do less tradin...
by ratesguy
Wed Jun 04, 2014 11:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emergency Fund. Not Boglehead-ish?
Replies: 28
Views: 2592

Emergency Fund. Not Boglehead-ish?

Why does everyone say to have 6m living expenses in a bank account? Assuming I have double that or more in my "taxable investments" what is the point? Shouldn't everything but a small cash buffer to make sure checks don't bounce routinely be invested at my target AA? I've heard people say ...
by ratesguy
Mon Jun 02, 2014 8:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bad Advice from Schwab re "Mega Backdoor Roth IRA?"
Replies: 54
Views: 9458

Re: Bad Advice from Schwab re "Mega Backdoor Roth IRA?"

Yes sorry from a Fidelity 401k!!!!! To a Roth IRA. My traditional IRA is just a placeholder for the back door two step,,,
by ratesguy
Mon Jun 02, 2014 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could sector funds be better in taxable?
Replies: 6
Views: 867

Re: Could sector funds be better in taxable?

I think you are right that it is too much trouble and hard to gauge. Maybe if I have time I could back test a bit. Presumably if I bought the 10 sectors at their respective weights it would be on autopilot tracking TSM as everything is market cap weighted so moving with performance. Looking at the l...
by ratesguy
Mon Jun 02, 2014 8:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: does frugality result in lower career ambition?
Replies: 113
Views: 13870

Re: does frugality result in lower career ambition?

I think the savings mentality can cause one to lose focus on things that may be even more important. I admit that I am very focused on financial independence and that leads to plenty of career ambition and frugality. I do wonder sometimes if I won't look back and wish I had done something differentl...
by ratesguy
Mon Jun 02, 2014 8:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bad Advice from Schwab re "Mega Backdoor Roth IRA?"
Replies: 54
Views: 9458

Re: Bad Advice from Schwab re "Mega Backdoor Roth IRA?"

And three fancy private bankers including a CFP came to pitch me on their services and this was all news to them.

I've done fine on my own and want to charge 0.75 - 1.50 pct wrap fee to manage my portfolio when I'm doing just fine on my own...Run!
by ratesguy
Mon Jun 02, 2014 8:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bad Advice from Schwab re "Mega Backdoor Roth IRA?"
Replies: 54
Views: 9458

Re: Bad Advice from Schwab re "Mega Backdoor Roth IRA?"

Megabackdoor IRA is real and I did it via a Fidelity IRA into an existing Roth IRA at E*Trade. If you have significant funds in a pre-existing traditional IRA this complicate things as I beleive the rollover is assumed to come proportionately from the tIRA and thus you incur taxes. But this was not ...
by ratesguy
Mon Jun 02, 2014 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could sector funds be better in taxable?
Replies: 6
Views: 867

Re: Could sector funds be better in taxable?

Thanks. I was actually thinking about splitting up the US segment into consumer discretionary, consumer staples, energy etc So VCR, VDC, VDE, ...., VPU So making the VTI into 10 pieces (or 9 if I exclude financials) and going from a .05 ER to a .14 ER... I have not been all that on top of TLH or don...
by ratesguy
Sun Jun 01, 2014 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could sector funds be better in taxable?
Replies: 6
Views: 867

Could sector funds be better in taxable?

Assume TSM / VTI is the default for my taxable funds and I have a lump sum to add. With fees on sector ETFs coming down, could it make sense to hold a portfolio of 9-10 sectors? I'm mainly think of getting more dispersion of returns so I can: A) use the best performing sector each month/quarter/year...
by ratesguy
Fri May 30, 2014 5:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Alarm Clock
Replies: 30
Views: 3678

Re: Alarm Clock

There is an app for phone, maybe tablet, that apparently you need to shake hard enough to make it stop - I guess using the accelerometer in the phone I may try it. The soothing natural light and sound probably is not enough and my wife doesn't want to get up with me - much earlier than my biological...
by ratesguy
Wed May 28, 2014 5:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pay off huge student loan vs Investing
Replies: 49
Views: 6940

Re: Pay off huge student loan vs Investing

Would you loan some guy like you 200k at 2pct for that long? No offense intended, I wouldn't loan any individual I know money at 2oct for the long-term unless it was meant as a big favor to family. If you agree then maybe keeping the loan isn't so bad. Unless you want to do the lender a favor. I'm n...
by ratesguy
Tue May 27, 2014 9:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: High Earners - What's Your Profession?
Replies: 963
Views: 161405

Re: High Earners - What's Your Profession?

I came very close to breaking into six figures last year. From above. I don't mind paying taxes. The more "senior" posters on here seem to be counting on their social security and Medicare benefits, the physicians want their Medicare reimbursements, the scientists their grants and so on......
by ratesguy
Tue May 27, 2014 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle - International Bonds
Replies: 57
Views: 5088

Re: Jack Bogle - International Bonds

I think it's wrong to think market-weighting is sensible when it comes to sovereign bonds. The market doesn't "choose" how much to hold in JGBs, bunds or Treasuries so much as governments choose a budget policy that requires a given level of borrowing. Within each bond market you could pro...
by ratesguy
Tue May 27, 2014 12:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: True cost of college
Replies: 11
Views: 1708

True cost of college

new study suggests negative 500k (less than free)...after PV'ing inflation adjusted costs and still-growing pay differentials over a working lifetime

http://nyti.ms/1gwn8Bt
by ratesguy
Sun May 25, 2014 9:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Netflix vs Amazon Prime?
Replies: 21
Views: 5421

Re: Netflix vs Amazon Prime?

I stream both. Amazon allows you to buy or rent new releases in addition to new Prime-included content which now includes some HBO shows. Netflix content hasn't really improved in the last three years while Amazon has after playing catch up. Prime is worth it for the shipping if you buy stuff on Ama...
by ratesguy
Sun May 25, 2014 8:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Lump Sum into 529 - Picking the college type
Replies: 9
Views: 1307

Re: Lump Sum into 529 - Picking the college type

I guess I am the opposite of most advisors in that I see saving for three kids college as more important as retirement. I don't think there is a true right or wrong on this but seeing income/wealth inequality worsen and student deb't explode I am very motivated to sacrifice plenty to avoid cost from...
by ratesguy
Thu May 22, 2014 3:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your 529 Plan - Thoughts and Strategies
Replies: 43
Views: 7309

Re: Your 529 Plan - Thoughts and Strategies

I have 3 kids: 2, 4 and 6. I have essentially out the gift tax exemption max into each (my 14k, not the full 28k allowed with spouse). With growth combined balance is 225k. Assets are 70/30 split with about 1/3 of stocks in foreign developed. Pretty standard stuff. It's NY so Vanguard and great 0.17...
by ratesguy
Thu May 22, 2014 3:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Treasuries: A better safe haven than gold"
Replies: 38
Views: 3754

Re: "Treasuries: A better safe haven than gold"

Still waiting fro the "money printing" to show up as inflation after 10+ years in Japan, or three rounds of QE in the US and monetary base growth in Europe (mainly via LTRO)? It's just not how inflation works. That said Treasury valuations are pretty much priced for perfection with the mar...
by ratesguy
Sat May 17, 2014 3:43 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying a new suit for a promotion
Replies: 20
Views: 3268

Re: Buying a new suit for a promotion

Tailored is a must. The guys with off the rack suits are easy to spot. I'm not a fashion guy but in Manhattan at least it's easy to stand out in the wrong way. The thin lapel craze has passed but I think the old suits from the 90s had too wide lapels. Compare, see what you like and find a middle gro...
by ratesguy
Sat May 17, 2014 3:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Seeking Constructive Advice on Whole Life for High Income Ea
Replies: 25
Views: 2835

Re: Seeking Constructive Advice on Whole Life for High Incom

Thanks to everybody. No I'm really not an insurance salesman. Lots of great stuff. It is being presented as a four percent floor. I have concerns on how you do that in today's market. The IRR he claims, over a long horizon, like to 65 I think so 27 years equates to earning over 5 pct in munis and 7 ...
by ratesguy
Sat May 17, 2014 2:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Simple Demonstration of Market Inefficiency
Replies: 18
Views: 3164

Re: A Simple Demonstration of Market Inefficiency

Just look at what a 7:1 stock split anticipation trade has done for AAPL. The bid/offer is currently a few pennies at the current price I doubt the spread comes in seven-fold which means higher transaction cost on a percentage basis. For retail investors that pay a flat 9.99 per trade up to 1000 sha...
by ratesguy
Thu May 15, 2014 11:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Seeking Constructive Advice on Whole Life for High Income Ea
Replies: 25
Views: 2835

Seeking Constructive Advice on Whole Life for High Income Ea

I've seen lots of threads on whole life. But they just "flame" people and say "run" conflict, buy term, invest the difference. So if that is all you want to say, it's not worth repeating. Here are the facts: Age 38 1M per year income or a bit more, expected to rise, fairly stable...
by ratesguy
Sun May 11, 2014 1:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in Gold/Silver Coins
Replies: 37
Views: 5701

Re: Investing in Gold/Silver Coins

I hate gold. 'Barbaric relic' as Keyne's said. I don't think it can be called an investment. Still, I have always liked coins and could see the case for holding some metals, at slightly lower prices, as a bit of a tail hedge and maybe speculation on growth in places like India. So I have a non-trivi...
by ratesguy
Tue Apr 29, 2014 8:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Pay down variable loan or invest
Replies: 19
Views: 3692

Re: Pay down variable loan or invest

The rate is 2.35 now. You can worry about paying it off if and when it goes up with money you save in the meantime. Your investments won't for sure beat 2.35pct but they are likely to. Student loan debt is also pretty good debt to have as far as debt goes. In cases of unemployment, disability, etc t...
by ratesguy
Tue Apr 29, 2014 8:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to calculate living expenses 30 years from today?
Replies: 13
Views: 1727

Re: How to calculate living expenses 30 years from today?

The Fed adopted a formal 2pct inflation target a couple years ago. 2pct +/- had been the general experience in the developed world (post-Volcker) until the current patch of lower inflation. I tend to assume 2pct which would mean prices don't quite double in 30 years. Lots of folks will cite examples...
by ratesguy
Tue Apr 29, 2014 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Would you EVER recommend 100% equity?
Replies: 136
Views: 34581

Re: Poll: Would you EVER recommend 100% equity?

Did I just wake up in 1999? Stocks are far more volatile than bonds. All these comparisons to bonds are very unfair. If you historically held a bond position with equal volatilty to stocks (either through leverage or owning long-dated STRIPS) you would have generally done as well or better than stoc...
by ratesguy
Tue Apr 29, 2014 8:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: ?Switch from IEF to VGIT [iShares 10-yr, Vanguard Int-Term]
Replies: 4
Views: 1183

Re: ?Switch from IEF to VGITF

I actually think you don't have enough duration risk relative to equity risk. Bonds are more than "dry powder" to deploy into more equities someday. They are negatively correlated with stocks in the current and prospective environment. If stocks fall 10 pct than LT Treasury yields likely f...
by ratesguy
Tue Apr 29, 2014 7:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Life Term Insurance? 32 yrs old. [Help requested]
Replies: 41
Views: 4016

Re: Life Term Insurance? 32 yrs old. [Help requested]

I would take financial strength pretty seriously, in my opinion the peace of mind to pay a little more is worth it. These companies have been writing whole life policies with 4% guaranteed returns for years. Where in fixed income can they find 4% safely and still cover expenses etc? Not easily. I wo...
by ratesguy
Mon Apr 28, 2014 8:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 529 Rollover -- Can I deduct it?
Replies: 5
Views: 3052

Re: 529 Rollover -- Can I deduct it?

Yes, a common strategy for NYers is to put as much as possible into another state 529 (like Utah) when the child is young - up to the gift exemption max of 140k for a married couple and roll 10k per year (max deduction) into the NY plan each year. This gets the tax deferred money to work ASAP while ...
by ratesguy
Fri Apr 25, 2014 3:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What to say to financial planners/insurance brokers
Replies: 45
Views: 14836

Re: What to say to financial planners/insurance brokers

personal capital.com has been hounding me since I took their website for a spin. They have my iPhone number and I let it go to voicemail then choose block caller
by ratesguy
Tue Apr 15, 2014 11:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The Mega Backdoor Roth IRA
Replies: 502
Views: 226611

Re: The Mega Backdoor Roth IRA

I did it once (recently) - my pay is front loaded b/c of bonus and company share deliveries. My understanding is you can do it as often as you want (eg 1k at a shot or whatever) but there is a small time component related to making the call and depositing the check (I was a bit surprised I coudn't j...
by ratesguy
Tue Apr 15, 2014 10:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The Mega Backdoor Roth IRA
Replies: 502
Views: 226611

Re: The Mega Backdoor Roth IRA

I did this for the first time this year. It was advocated internal 401k presentation and I have no reason to think its not 100pct legit. For me it means that the 52k limit was reached with 17500 from me, 10k profit share from employer and 25k of mt after-tax contributions that I already rolled into ...