Search found 2167 matches

by visualguy
Wed Mar 10, 2021 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How has U.S outperformed International?
Replies: 133
Views: 10442

Re: How has U.S outperformed International?

At the detriment of its poorer citizen. US is a business-friendlier country. Right, and this includes a strong focus on shareholders in the US in terms of both government policies (taxation, regulation, central bank), and corporate policies (e.g. buybacks). Shareholders are viewed a lot more as the...
by visualguy
Wed Mar 03, 2021 1:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can we afford a $2.5M first home?
Replies: 185
Views: 14700

Re: Can we afford a $2.5M first home?

Keep on saving for a few more years. That has been a bad strategy in the Bay Area for a very long time now... What you get for waiting a few more years is significantly higher house prices. Just over the last year, the median price of a single-family home in Santa Clara County has gone up by over 1...
by visualguy
Wed Mar 03, 2021 12:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can we afford a $2.5M first home?
Replies: 185
Views: 14700

Re: Can we afford a $2.5M first home?

Keep on saving for a few more years. That has been a bad strategy in the Bay Area for a very long time now... What you get for waiting a few more years is significantly higher house prices. Just over the last year, the median price of a single-family home in Santa Clara County has gone up by over 1...
by visualguy
Tue Mar 02, 2021 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How crazy is it to hold 100% equities until retirement? (ERN)
Replies: 540
Views: 21870

Re: How crazy is it to hold 100% equities until retirement? (ERN)

In the scenario of permanent portfolio loss, if you’re well diversified and that happens...good luck to us all. Your savings rate, your job, cash holdings....are the least of your worries and will not help you I think it’s very unrealistic to have such an overly pessimistic attitude and not good fo...
by visualguy
Mon Mar 01, 2021 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Boglehead philosophy - 3 fund portfolio ever become obsolete?
Replies: 51
Views: 4480

Re: Will Boglehead philosophy - 3 fund portfolio ever become obsolete?

The returns from the 3-fund portfolio could be poor going forward for many years. That's definitely possible, maybe even somewhat likely. I don't know if this would qualify as being "obsolete", though.
by visualguy
Wed Feb 24, 2021 1:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advice on how to ease the anxiety of deciding to retire.
Replies: 91
Views: 10568

Re: Advice on how to ease the anxiety of deciding to retire.

I'm trying to convince myself to retire at the end of this year. I've been putting it off for the last 2 years. I'm wired to work and to save money. The idea of not working, having no income and spending my savings at age 62 seems very weird. I'd also be giving up a very healthy paycheck. However, ...
by visualguy
Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A $3.5M First Home Purchase?
Replies: 124
Views: 10471

Re: A $3.5M First Home Purchase?

Basically, my advice is buy the home you want for your family and can afford, and don't stress too much about it. From your numbers, I think you can comfortably afford the more expensive home closer to work +1 Seriously, worrying about the value of such a home in the Bay Area crashing would be clos...
by visualguy
Tue Feb 02, 2021 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Stock
Replies: 254
Views: 12143

Re: International Stock

The bargains have supposedly been there for years. If they were cheap ten years ago relative to U.S. and still got trounced, then it turns out they were not cheap at all. Not that it really matters, but to be fair, international stocks were not cheap ten years ago relative to US stocks. They didn’t...
by visualguy
Tue Jan 19, 2021 10:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: YOLO vs BH
Replies: 97
Views: 9699

Re: YOLO vs BH

Living exclusively for the future can be as risky as living exclusively for the present. Nobody lives exclusively for the future. Nobody lives exclusively for the present. We all should be able to find a mix that makes us happy through our entire lives, IMHO. Beyond 55, while I certainly hope to co...
by visualguy
Mon Jan 18, 2021 2:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Academic transitioning to new career?
Replies: 30
Views: 2297

Re: Academic transitioning to new career?

I think making such a transition in mid or even late career makes sense when it's natural - that is, when you already have the right skills to make an impact, and you are the right fit. Having to re-invent yourself to get there is a different matter. Still OK when done in early career, but questiona...
by visualguy
Mon Jan 18, 2021 3:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stocks: If not now, then when?
Replies: 172
Views: 17615

Re: International stocks: If not now, then when?

Anon9001 wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 2:45 am Not accounting for earnings growth in your "valuations" comparison is a very big mistake to make.
Another mistake is only comparing ex-US valuations to US valuations, and not taking into account the comparison of current ex-US valuations to historical ex-US valuations.
by visualguy
Sat Jan 16, 2021 10:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Got a job offer for $840k/yr. Should I come out of retirement?
Replies: 229
Views: 29178

Re: Got a job offer for $840k/yr. Should I come out of retirement?

Right, and having $6M in that area (SF Bay) pretty much just means that you can buy a nice new house in a good school district (no mansion by any means), and pay the property taxes on that house for the rest of your life. That's about it. It's not the kind of money that makes you feel like you real...
by visualguy
Sat Jan 16, 2021 12:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Got a job offer for $840k/yr. Should I come out of retirement?
Replies: 229
Views: 29178

Re: Got a job offer for $840k/yr. Should I come out of retirement?

just that OP - in spite of earning what's probably a 0.01% salary - is just like any other human. I am nitpicking. But the amount mentioned is not 0.01% salary. It is not even in 1 percent category in Bay Area where OP resides. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/19/what-you-have-to-earn-to-be-in-the-1-pe...
by visualguy
Mon Jan 11, 2021 12:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Regrets postponing retirement too long?
Replies: 171
Views: 15775

Re: Regrets postponing retirement too long?

What is more likely at age 90? Being on your death bed wishing you had worked longer or wishing you had retired earlier? Most people never get the opportunity to answer this question because they don't live this long. How would you actually answer this if you were one of the lucky people to live th...
by visualguy
Mon Jan 11, 2021 1:28 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Regrets postponing retirement too long?
Replies: 171
Views: 15775

Re: Regrets postponing retirement too long?

If you haven't thought seriously about what you're going to do after you're retired, I'd recommend start thinking about it right now. Retirement is a serious business. Think about it: If you live 22 years after your retirement date, that is a VERY long time! In fact, it's the same number of years t...
by visualguy
Sun Jan 10, 2021 7:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much do you allocate to international equity?
Replies: 133
Views: 10105

Re: How much do you allocate to international equity?

Given that international stock markets are undervalued while large cap US stocks are grossly overvalued, I see no good reason to own any US stocks (except Berkshire Hathaway). Here's an apples-to-apples comparison: DGRE (WisdomTree Emerging Markets Quality Dividend Growth Fund) and DGRW (WisdomTree...
by visualguy
Sun Jan 10, 2021 4:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Regrets postponing retirement too long?
Replies: 171
Views: 15775

Re: Regrets postponing retirement too long?

Sometimes it seems that Bogleheads operate in a different universe where all kind of possibilities that don't apply to the vast majority of people do actually apply to them, and sometimes we lose sight of how life works for everyone else. I agree with this. There are many working people who just do...
by visualguy
Sun Jan 10, 2021 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ARK investment
Replies: 267
Views: 24898

Re: ARK investment

On a similar yet different note --- anyone here think IZRL (a passively-managed ARK Israel disruptive innovation index) is worth looking at? At minimum I think one can say that there's been no meteoric rise as yet (the obvious risk being that there will never be one!). Israel is problematic from a ...
by visualguy
Sun Jan 10, 2021 4:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Regrets postponing retirement too long?
Replies: 171
Views: 15775

Re: Regrets postponing retirement too long?

One of my concerns is health insurance. Not the costs of the ACA which would obviously be much higher. The concern is the quality of the insurance. I have truly awesome insurance now at work which is PPO, has an excellent network, and approves everything without issues. Multiple specialist appointm...
by visualguy
Sat Jan 09, 2021 5:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Regrets postponing retirement too long?
Replies: 171
Views: 15775

Re: Regrets postponing retirement too long?

One option is to just take more vacations now while you're still working. I assume you have time off during the year. Use that time to travel more than you otherwise would. Then you don't need to worry about retirement or retiring into a state where you couldn't do the things you want when travelin...
by visualguy
Sat Jan 09, 2021 4:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Regrets postponing retirement too long?
Replies: 171
Views: 15775

Re: Regrets postponing retirement too long?

I can relate to your worries. I'm close to your age, and also developed a knee problem recently, although mine seems more serious than yours. There are other non-fatal but annoying health issues as well. Impact on future travel during retirement is something that I'm concerned about as well. In my p...
by visualguy
Sat Jan 09, 2021 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)
Replies: 201
Views: 13034

Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

OP, No. I have enough. I only need a 5% nominal return. I had far exceeded my goal. I do not need to gamble. What is your number? What is the return rate that you need to reach your goal? If you have enough, why should you care to gamble? KlangFool You're in a good spot. No need to introduce more r...
by visualguy
Sat Jan 09, 2021 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)
Replies: 201
Views: 13034

Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

These aren’t “imagine the future” type of companies I think that "imagine the future" is exactly what the Tesla optimism is and exactly what Bitcoin optimism is. What I mean is that we know electric cars are the future. Laws are already written ensuring this. Bitcoin isn’t a company. I do...
by visualguy
Sat Jan 09, 2021 10:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Family Costs 1970s vs 2020s
Replies: 122
Views: 10280

Re: Family Costs 1970s vs 2020s

Helping kids with purchasing their homes is reasonable, and pretty common from what I've seen among friends and colleagues. I did help my kids with that as well. It's not a new thing by any means, of course. Passing some money to the next generation makes a lot more difference in their lives when yo...
by visualguy
Sat Jan 09, 2021 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)
Replies: 201
Views: 13034

Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Sort of. I sure wish I’d invested long ago. But realistically, none of those shiny things flashed on my radar until they’d already taken off, were making headlines, and become office water cooler topics of conversation. That’s the worst time to invest in things. Not necessarily. Tesla was still an ...
by visualguy
Sat Jan 09, 2021 9:41 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is working overrated?
Replies: 31
Views: 1946

Re: Is working overrated?

Today is my first day of retirement. I’ve always been a person that liked my work but wasn’t defined by my work. And for the people that say the “work makes you productive and gives you purpose” — that is fine if that is how YOU make yourself productive, but there is no requirement that a person mu...
by visualguy
Sat Jan 09, 2021 9:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Annual returns from my portfolio is more than my annual income". Does this mean anything?
Replies: 66
Views: 5963

Re: "Annual returns from my portfolio is more than my annual income". Does this mean anything?

It means you reached what I call the demotivating stage of investment where your investment portfolio starts making you doubt the value of keeping your job, at least from a financial perspective.
by visualguy
Sat Jan 09, 2021 9:21 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is working overrated?
Replies: 31
Views: 1946

Re: Is working overrated?

I've been retired for almost 10 years and the more time I'm home the more I feel that working was overrated. Sure we needed the money and it was challenging (and very stressful) at times, but all the hoopla about acheiving goals, one's potential...blah, blah, blah...seem overblown to me. Love where...
by visualguy
Sat Jan 09, 2021 5:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)
Replies: 201
Views: 13034

Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

These things are only "obvious" in hindsight. Say I have FOMO now and I allocate some meaningful "play" money. What would I put it in? I have no idea, just like I didn't know way back if Tesla was already overpriced and about to stagnate, or was about to go up like crazy, or some...
by visualguy
Sat Jan 09, 2021 3:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: CA muni long term or intermediate term
Replies: 5
Views: 386

Re: CA muni long term or intermediate term

Isn't the average duration what you should be looking at if you're concerned about sensitivity to interest rates? It's 6.1 years for long term, and 4.8 years for intermediate, so not a huge difference.
by visualguy
Sat Jan 09, 2021 3:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We've never been here before [Today's Markets Are in Uncharted Territory]
Replies: 35
Views: 4827

Re: We've never been here before

The rest of America is a whole other world that struggles. For a flavor of what most people are dealing with, I recommend this 2018 PBS documentary about the challenges facing Dayton, Ohio. The jobs just don't pay. Resources are consumed by poverty problems like drugs, which people either sell to m...
by visualguy
Sat Jan 09, 2021 1:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We've never been here before [Today's Markets Are in Uncharted Territory]
Replies: 35
Views: 4827

Re: We've never been here before

The rest of America is a whole other world that struggles. For a flavor of what most people are dealing with, I recommend this 2018 PBS documentary about the challenges facing Dayton, Ohio. The jobs just don't pay. Resources are consumed by poverty problems like drugs, which people either sell to m...
by visualguy
Sat Jan 09, 2021 12:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We've never been here before [Today's Markets Are in Uncharted Territory]
Replies: 35
Views: 4827

Re: We've never been here before

The rest of America is a whole other world that struggles. For a flavor of what most people are dealing with, I recommend this 2018 PBS documentary about the challenges facing Dayton, Ohio. The jobs just don't pay. Resources are consumed by poverty problems like drugs, which people either sell to m...
by visualguy
Sat Jan 09, 2021 12:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much do you allocate to international equity?
Replies: 133
Views: 10105

Re: How much do you allocate to international equity?

Zero. My international exposures comes from US companies that do business internationally. +1 Also, 0%. There are enough US-listed companies with a lot of international business. I don't see the need to index ex-US. Particularly since it has so many issues: currency risk, foreign taxes, etc., and i...
by visualguy
Fri Jan 08, 2021 12:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Put more towards downpayment or invest in SF Bay Area
Replies: 27
Views: 1854

Re: Put more towards downpayment or invest in SF Bay Area

:moneybag OP, It might be very profitable for you to get out of California now. You may not be stuck paying the state income tax on the 5m to 10m. You may want to consider this. Consult a tax professional before buying a house in California. KlangFool To clarify, the 5m-10m number is after federal a...
by visualguy
Fri Jan 08, 2021 12:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Put more towards downpayment or invest in SF Bay Area
Replies: 27
Views: 1854

Re: Put more towards downpayment or invest in SF Bay Area

OP, It might be very profitable for you to get out of California now. You may not be stuck paying the state income tax on the 5m to 10m. You may want to consider this. Consult a tax professional before buying a house in California. KlangFool To clarify, the 5m-10m number is after federal and CA inc...
by visualguy
Wed Jan 06, 2021 10:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement £ mindset
Replies: 6
Views: 864

Re: Retirement £ mindset

The difficulty of the transition on the financial side depends on the levels of assets and spending. If the ratio between the two is good, then the transition shouldn't be hard. There could be a fear of unexpected large expenses or large sustained drops in the stock market, so having a good margin o...
by visualguy
Sun Jan 03, 2021 9:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Negative real return for BND?
Replies: 157
Views: 11848

Re: Negative real return for BND?

Some of you are putting a lot of thought into this bond thing. People have been saying for years to stay away from bonds because interest rates have to go up, and it seems like people are still saying stay away. But, 2020 would have been a very good year to be in bonds. I've been avoiding them for ...
by visualguy
Sun Jan 03, 2021 11:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Milestone- Do I discount because of all time high market?
Replies: 34
Views: 3131

Re: Milestone- Do I discount because of all time high market?

The best hedge against uncertainty in early retirement is to maintain your human capital. Keeping up skills through education or part time work may enable you to rely on income again if things go poorly. Part time work blunts your withdrawal rate and changes the portfolio survival formula substanti...
by visualguy
Mon Dec 28, 2020 3:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Young Investor Three Fund Portfolio but want to replace bonds! Guidance please.
Replies: 40
Views: 3183

Re: Young Investor Three Fund Portfolio but want to replace bonds! Guidance please.

I don't think you need bonds in your 20s and 30s. In your 40s, 50s, and early 60s, "age minus 20" in bonds is a good rule. While young investors don't necessarily need bonds (fixed income) the absence of any bond/near cash component in their portfolio means they are not able to take advan...
by visualguy
Thu Dec 24, 2020 11:07 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What exactly are YOU doing in retirement?
Replies: 93
Views: 8822

Re: What exactly are YOU doing in retirement?

Learn jazz guitar. However, as a lawyer in my firm who retired before me said, "by the time you walk the dog and go to the gym, the day's over." True. That is true, time can be easily consumed just with routine trivial stuff if you take things easy. The prospect of this kind of life may o...
by visualguy
Wed Dec 23, 2020 4:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What exactly are YOU doing in retirement?
Replies: 93
Views: 8822

Re: What exactly are YOU doing in retirement?

I think at 60+ you can just take it easy... You just take your time with everything, and time just flies. At earlier ages, this seems like a waste, but at some age I think it's ok. Between getting up late, taking time with chores, shopping for good food, cooking, exercise, TV & movies, hobbies, ...
by visualguy
Mon Dec 21, 2020 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not ARK funds if one is investing in QQQ?
Replies: 58
Views: 7032

Re: Why not ARK funds if one is investing in QQQ?

There's simply not much to say about the 3-fund portfolio. For people who've decided that that's how they want to invest, investing is a solved problem. The only other important things are expense ratios, taxes, withdrawal rates, Roth IRA conversion etc. So you only hear from the people who are int...
by visualguy
Mon Dec 21, 2020 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not ARK funds if one is investing in QQQ?
Replies: 58
Views: 7032

Re: Why not ARK funds if one is investing in QQQ?

What surprises me is how many here don't really follow the orthodoxy of the 3-fund portfolio. I don't follow it either - I don't invest in bonds or the ex-US index, and I hold direct real estate to diversify instead, so I'm not complaining - I was never a follower of the 3-fund portfolio. I don't in...
by visualguy
Sun Dec 20, 2020 10:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why am I investing in bonds?
Replies: 135
Views: 8188

Re: Why am I investing in bonds?

I don't see a reason to "invest" in something with negative real returns, so I don't own bonds. I don't understand the rebalancing argument that people mention because it's still inferior to just keeping the money in equities. Also, for those holding bonds as "insurance" against ...
by visualguy
Fri Dec 18, 2020 2:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If you're already FI and still work . . . 
Replies: 149
Views: 12816

Re: If you're already FI and still work . . . 

5) Not sure if I would be able to get along well with my DW 24 hours a day, 7 days a week in the house. We are both stubborn. How does this happen? I’ve only been married 16 yrs so maybe it happens later? Or maybe I haven’t spent as many hours away at a job? Not sure Sorry for going OT It's just hu...
by visualguy
Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Relocation - California, Santa Cruz, Watsonville, Salinas, Monterey area
Replies: 168
Views: 9117

Re: Relocation - California, Santa Cruz, Watsonville, Salinas, Monterey area

I grew up in the LA Area, but also spent 4yrs in SLO (which is by far the most beautiful area I've ever lived, but still somewhere I would not move my family to). I have family from all over the state that have left. My wife is from the Bay Area, here entire extended family has left there in the pa...
by visualguy
Tue Dec 15, 2020 9:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Relocation - California, Santa Cruz, Watsonville, Salinas, Monterey area
Replies: 168
Views: 9117

Re: Relocation - California, Santa Cruz, Watsonville, Salinas, Monterey area

Monterey AQ maybe. But looks at the AQ in Santa Cruz, the mountains, South Bay, Peninsula, Napa, East Bay, Sacramento. The worst in the world this year. So much worse than any city in the US. Monterey AQ was horrible during the fires this year too. You really couldn't escape it this year. There wer...
by visualguy
Tue Dec 15, 2020 5:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Relocation - California, Santa Cruz, Watsonville, Salinas, Monterey area
Replies: 168
Views: 9117

Re: Relocation - California, Santa Cruz, Watsonville, Salinas, Monterey area

+2, this area is a definite upgrade in terms of quality of life compare to the main bayarea. The micro climate is very real and quite an experience for the uninitiated. The climate, infrastructure, and services are much better in the "main" Bay Area (south bay, peninsula), though. In my v...
by visualguy
Sun Dec 13, 2020 11:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Talk me out of buying a $1m condo in San Francisco in December 2020
Replies: 104
Views: 10099

Re: Talk me out of buying a $1m condo in San Francisco in December 2020

Corporations and people are moving out of California. This will result less demand and extra capacity. This will cause prices to go down in a few years. I would hold off from any purchases in this area for about two years. It’s interesting to me how much news there is about the California exodus. R...