Search found 2817 matches

by surfstar
Thu Dec 16, 2021 4:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: PSA: Replace the anode rod on your water heater every few years to prolong its life.
Replies: 128
Views: 15229

Re: PSA: Replace the anode rod on your water heater every few years to prolong its life.

An anode costs $25-30 every few years and a few minutes of time. I drain the junk out of the tank at the same time. I'd say this thread has pretty effectively squashed the notion of this being a "few minutes" project in a significant percentage of cases. The most time consuming part for me is finding the hose, connecting it to the tank's drain bib, and running it outside or to a floor drain. All of this I would need to do regardless of anode work. (I drain 3-4 times a year, and check the anode ~18-22 months). I turn off the tank's heater the night before I open the anode, and before showers, dishwasher, etc. so I don't waste hot water as much as possible. Using the hot water first also means I don't have to worry about working wi...
by surfstar
Wed Dec 15, 2021 2:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anybody buy a Prius 2022 lately? Looking for advice.
Replies: 48
Views: 7000

Re: Anybody buy a Prius 2022 lately? Looking for advice.

If you have a power outlet in your garage, then you can charge the Prius Prime. The “charger” is in the car. There’s a huge benefit to the Prime if using less gas is your goal. My only gripe about the current generation Prius is they are the ugliest car on the road to date. From what I see its only like an extra 25 miles of EV range with a full charge, right? Most of our trips are less than that, but, it doesn't seem like it makes economical sense. No interest in anything other than the price/cost trade off. Buy a Prime at MSRP before 12/31 if you are able. * The $4502 tax credit may go away. You may also have state/local/utility rebates or incentives. The tax credit alone makes the Prime a much better value, unless you can't live with the...
by surfstar
Wed Dec 08, 2021 11:29 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Traditional fireplace or electric? What to do for new construction home?
Replies: 85
Views: 8046

Re: Traditional fireplace or electric? What to do for new construction home?

"traditional" wood burning is very bad for indoor and outdoor air quality
I am someone who camps a lot and likes a warm campfire, but we've moved on to using a portable propane fire pit and would never want to use wood burning fireplace in the home.

A wood-pellet or similar design is more efficient and cleaner burning if you want that [wood-type] route and to have the backup heating option if electricity goes out. But again, for a new home build, it is much more likely to be efficient and cost effective to forgo traditional fireplaces.
100% Electric, solar, and battery backup...? (or generator)
by surfstar
Wed Dec 08, 2021 11:21 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Boglehead Keyboard (Piano) ?
Replies: 27
Views: 2920

Re: Boglehead Keyboard (Piano) ?

If a Costco member, the Roland FRP-1 bundle for $550 has the bench and stand. Currently $100 off and Costco's great warranty/return policy!

Features:
Includes Bench, Headphones, Sustain Pedal, Stand, 90-Day Pianote Lessons
Ivory-feel Progressive Hammer Action Keyboard
Rich Grand Piano Tones and Many More
Bluetooth Control of Piano and Apps
5-years Parts, 2-years Labor Warranty

https://www.costco.com/roland-frp-1-dig ... 19453.html

Item may be available in your local warehouse for a lower, non-delivered price
I believe DW bought the previous version of this (FR-10?) in store for less, last year.
by surfstar
Wed Dec 08, 2021 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could millennial trends threaten stock market performance over the coming decades?
Replies: 54
Views: 5664

Re: Could millennial trends threaten stock market performance over the coming decades?

100% of Millenials and Gen Z cannot all become crypto millionaires, so I'd go with "no" to answer your Title question.
They may currently believe differently, but time will prove most of them incorrect.
by surfstar
Tue Dec 07, 2021 3:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Strange experience talking to Citi DoubleCash support about World Elite benefits
Replies: 9
Views: 1680

Re: Strange experience talking to Citi DoubleCash support about World Elite benefits

Better to just use a US Bank cash+ (visa signature) - still lists cell phone protection benefit and is 5% cashback on cell phone bills
by surfstar
Mon Dec 06, 2021 6:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why not $50k home (Boxabl - Elon lives in them)?
Replies: 34
Views: 5009

Re: Why not $50k home (Boxabl - Elon lives in them)?

Small, cheap housing?!?

I'm sure no one before Elon has ever thought of that. Hmm. :oops:
by surfstar
Mon Dec 06, 2021 9:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tax write-off on selling ETF for a loss
Replies: 13
Views: 1473

Re: Tax write-off on selling ETF for a loss

ARK_ ? lol Sell and invest in VTCLX using VLCAX as a TLH partner if needed in the future. If you'd started with VTCLX this year, you wouldn't have the TLH "opportunity", though. Yes its the ARK ETF. Is VTCLX good in taxable brokerage account? I have invested in VTI, VXUS and QQQ too. Is there an ETF equivalent of VTCLX? As said above, no ETF version. I've found the simplicity of buying mutual funds to be beneficial. You get the end of day price, and that's it. You can still wait to put in an order at 12:55 so you know what the day's price will be roughly, but it keeps me from trying to buy at the day's "low" and wasting effort doing that. No worry on fractional shares either - put in $1,000, get $1,000 purchase without ...
by surfstar
Sun Dec 05, 2021 3:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tax write-off on selling ETF for a loss
Replies: 13
Views: 1473

Re: Tax write-off on selling ETF for a loss

ARK_ ? lol

Sell and invest in VTCLX using VLCAX as a TLH partner if needed in the future. If you'd started with VTCLX this year, you wouldn't have the TLH "opportunity", though.
by surfstar
Sat Dec 04, 2021 3:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Gravy train ride over ? Time to reevaluate asset allocation
Replies: 259
Views: 34577

Re: Gravy train ride over ? Time to reevaluate asset allocation

The other observation is, even with a small amount in play stocks, it forces you to watch the markets too much. One reason I now sell espp quickly and don’t put small amounts into individual stocks. I get tempted, but then think if I put $10k in what’s the max I’m gonna get before I sell anyway? $20k if I’m lucky? Won’t move the needle, so no point. Perhaps get out of those individual stocks and become a classical boglehead 🤓 This is my same thought process regarding individual stocks, crypto, and similar bets / play money. In order to move the needle, I'd use more $$/% than would make rational sense - so unless you need to scratch a gambling itch, there isn't much point. :sharebeer Being a nobody that knows nuthin' is a much easier invest...
by surfstar
Fri Dec 03, 2021 4:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I Bonds- 7.12%- no brainer to buy? Use emergency fund ?
Replies: 213
Views: 55378

Re: I Bonds- 7.12%- no brainer to buy? Use emergency fund ?

Late to the thread and savings bond. Is my understanding correct this is essentially like a 1 year CD if I redeem in 12 months? Buy $10K and get $356 in interest in 6 months. Future rate for the next 6 month period could be as low as 0%. Redeem in 12 months and lose out on the 3 last month interest. Which in the worst case would be $0. Essentially if I cash out in 12 months, under worst case scenario, it's a like a CD with a 3.56% interest. A quick check at of 1 year CD offered by Fido is 0.35%. Everything else (Back door IRA, mega backdoor IRA, HSA, 401(k)) all maxed out and sitting on $150K "emergency fund" paying 0.40%. Any reason I wouldn't want to do this? If you're "churning" why not look at bank bonuses? Tie up a...
by surfstar
Fri Dec 03, 2021 4:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Rivian - ?next Tesla ; how to buy [stock]
Replies: 142
Views: 18960

Re: Rivian - ?next Tesla ; how to buy [stock]

Why is this thread so quiet lately? :D
by surfstar
Fri Dec 03, 2021 4:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Gravy train ride over ? Time to reevaluate asset allocation
Replies: 259
Views: 34577

Re: Gravy train ride over ? Time to reevaluate asset allocation

OP seems all over the place with posts - bought Rivian, Bonds are concerning, etc...

If a 4% drop from ATH is causing you to "reevaluate"... good, I guess?

I'll remain greedy if people are getting fearful :D
by surfstar
Fri Dec 03, 2021 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The risk of DEATH ---- under-discussed on this forum?
Replies: 258
Views: 22782

Re: The risk of DEATH ---- under-discussed on this forum?

How about this as a reason to continue to work, from: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-best-reason-of-all-to-postpone-retirement-11638548181 "Those who work longer experience less cognitive decline. I don’t know about you, but that alone would convince me to postpone retirement even if there were no financial reason to do so. This cognitive benefit of postponing retirement was documented by a study that was published in the September 2021 issue of SSM –Population Health, a peer-reviewed journal. Entitled “Does postponing retirement affect cognitive function?,” its authors, from the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Rostock, Germany, are Joe Mhairi Hale, Maarte Bijlsma, and Angelo Lorenti." Wrench Great point. ...
by surfstar
Fri Dec 03, 2021 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The risk of DEATH ---- under-discussed on this forum?
Replies: 258
Views: 22782

Re: The risk of DEATH ---- under-discussed on this forum?

Your experience of working past the day you could afford to stop is more the norm. But not everyone is bored in retirement (I know I am not at all bored). I get bored during a one-week vacation. I learned long ago that taking more than that off at once would drive me crazy. As it is, I spend most vacation days doing at least some work. Another eason I cannot imagine hiking the Appalachian Trail. A lifetime of endless aimless leisure would be terrifying. That is why I hope to have lost the mental capacity and drive before poor health or lack of demand for my services make me leave the labor force. Next time you're out a night with a very dark sky, don't look up and realize how insignificant our Solar System is, Earth is, people are, you are...
by surfstar
Fri Dec 03, 2021 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The risk of DEATH ---- under-discussed on this forum?
Replies: 258
Views: 22782

Re: The risk of DEATH ---- under-discussed on this forum?

DesertDiva wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 11:13 am
Dottie57 wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 1:19 pm My concern is the 18% chance of being alive between 91 and 110.
So the real risk is Living. After Death, your risks cease.
Living has a 100% mortality rate.
by surfstar
Fri Dec 03, 2021 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bonds Mega Thread (I Bond Heads Rejoice!)
Replies: 6651
Views: 1204481

Re: I Bonds Mega Thread (I Bond Heads Rejoice!)

For those who are using these as part of your emergency fund (or CDs for that matter), I recommend considering breaking it up into smaller purchases -- $5k here and $5k of another or even $2.5k x 4. That way, it is not an all or nothing thing to have to break it open. Be sure to understand the limit on the particular device with respect to when it can be accessed. I-Bonds, for instance, can only be cashed in after 1 year (so for your mental accounting, not a good emergency fund replacement until after year 1). Meh - just buy a lump with your EF that sits in cash. Anyone buying I-bonds has credit cards they can tap, Roth IRA contributions, etc - for a real EMERGENCY. The thing is - people who have EF fund are highly, highly, unlikely to hav...
by surfstar
Fri Dec 03, 2021 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bonds Mega Thread (I Bond Heads Rejoice!)
Replies: 6651
Views: 1204481

Re: I Bonds Mega Thread (I Bond Heads Rejoice!)

For those who are using these as part of your emergency fund (or CDs for that matter), I recommend considering breaking it up into smaller purchases -- $5k here and $5k of another or even $2.5k x 4. That way, it is not an all or nothing thing to have to break it open. Be sure to understand the limit on the particular device with respect to when it can be accessed. I-Bonds, for instance, can only be cashed in after 1 year (so for your mental accounting, not a good emergency fund replacement until after year 1). Meh - just buy a lump with your EF that sits in cash. Anyone buying I-bonds has credit cards they can tap, Roth IRA contributions, etc - for a real EMERGENCY. The thing is - people who have EF fund are highly, highly, unlikely to hav...
by surfstar
Fri Dec 03, 2021 9:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How are People Mitigating Sequence of Return Risks?
Replies: 187
Views: 16699

Re: How are People Mitigating Sequence of Return Risks?

IMO, how are BHs mitigating SORR:

"The risk of DEATH ---- under-discussed on this forum?"
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=363766

BHs will over save and work longer than needed. SORR is just a theoretical discussion for 99% of Bogleheads.
by surfstar
Thu Dec 02, 2021 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The risk of DEATH ---- under-discussed on this forum?
Replies: 258
Views: 22782

Re: The risk of DEATH ---- under-discussed on this forum?

So to summarize, some people would rather err on the side of dying young and leaving lots of unspent money behind, than living a long life in poverty. While others prefer the opposite. Well, it's not like those are the only two options. This is Bogleheads, a forum populated by wealthy people who live in a wealthy country at the richest time in history. I'm pretty sure retiring 5 or 10 years early isn't going to mean a life of poverty for most folks here... If I could trade 10 years in a nursing home on SS and Medicare for 10 years earlier retirement - I sure would. and as far as the other posts (sorry, don't want to individually quote/respond to each one)... "do what you love, and you'll never work a day in your life" - that's a ...
by surfstar
Thu Dec 02, 2021 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The risk of DEATH ---- under-discussed on this forum?
Replies: 258
Views: 22782

Re: The risk of DEATH ---- under-discussed on this forum?

JoeRetire wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 2:28 pm
surfstar wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 2:13 pmI'm glad for you that you enjoyed it.
Thanks! I am too.
I'm sorry that you don't.
I enjoy my life outside of work. I am a bit envious of those who either like work or have a job that is enjoyable.
:sharebeer

I like my co-workers and some have become friends that we adventure with. It's just the whole needing-to-work thing that is annoying.
by surfstar
Thu Dec 02, 2021 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The risk of DEATH ---- under-discussed on this forum?
Replies: 258
Views: 22782

Re: The risk of DEATH ---- under-discussed on this forum?

There's just an entire world of things better to do with my life. Unfortunately they require money, I require food, and prefer to have a house over my head. That's what work is for. I used to think similarly to some extent, but when the time came to engage in this "entire world of things better to do", I found that it's not so clear what those are in reality, and that scaling down work (not even completely stopping it) had more of a negative effect than I expected. Do you wish your weekends/vacations were longer? Do you dread having to stop or leave whatever you're doing in order to return to work? We do. I take it you don't surf, snowboard, rock climb, SCUBA dive, backpack, camp, travel, or similar, very much? We have lots we wa...
by surfstar
Thu Dec 02, 2021 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The risk of DEATH ---- under-discussed on this forum?
Replies: 258
Views: 22782

Re: The risk of DEATH ---- under-discussed on this forum?

Meh - 8+ hours a day doing something that you don't want to do - that's not my "best life". Fortunately, I found a way to spend 55+ hours per week on average, doing something I enjoyed doing. Sorry that your mileage seems to vary. I like to find a way to enjoy just about every day of my life, working or not. So far, so good. As I said before - Catch-22. Working sucks. Its called work for a reason. Sure some people have either been brainwashed by thousands of years of society normalization and/or they might have brains that are actually wired to receive some sort of gratification from "a job well done", "contributing to society" etc. Nope. Not buying it. You live once, then you're dead forever. 55+ hours per we...
by surfstar
Thu Dec 02, 2021 2:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Refinance Mega Thread
Replies: 12862
Views: 1265913

Re: Refinance Mega Thread

I just got off the phone with LoanDepot, wow so rude. Has anyone had a decent experience with them? Decent as in - Gave the Loan Amt, Address and asked to get an estimate with my score. The lady went on - "You have been a homeowner right? do you really think you can get an estimate in 2 mins?" I said "yes I got one in the morning real quick and by law I can get a good-faith estimate without giving too much details". :D I completed their online form and then talked to someone on the phone and got a great offer - went with them and was quite happy. Took more than 2mins, and probably required more details than what you're after, but I can't recall. We simply submitted to a bunch of lenders that day/week and then compared #s.
by surfstar
Thu Dec 02, 2021 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The risk of DEATH ---- under-discussed on this forum?
Replies: 258
Views: 22782

Re: The risk of DEATH ---- under-discussed on this forum?

JoeRetire wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 1:29 pm
sailaway wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 12:13 pm Ideally, people are living their best life even while they are working
Bingo!

It's entirely possible to live a great life while working, yet still plan for a long, long retirement.
Meh - 8+ hours a day doing something that you don't want to do - that's not my "best life".

Wally might be able to closer meet your criteria:

[Copyrighted image removed by admin LadyGeek]
by surfstar
Thu Dec 02, 2021 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The risk of DEATH ---- under-discussed on this forum?
Replies: 258
Views: 22782

Re: The risk of DEATH ---- under-discussed on this forum?

For a person who likes analytics, that seems like common sense to me? I read a few comments here and there about not wanting to be the "richest person in the graveyard" upon death. But overall, there is an imbalance in the discussions that I see. As my friend on this BH forum, Patzer, told me: "It's sad, because people will plan for 95-100% success rates, to life expectancies that they only have a few percent chance of living to, and then talk about padding that with a few more years of work. I would rather take a couple percent chance of having to go back to work for 2-3 years to fix an off course retirement, then take a 100% chance of working 2-3 extra years to try to mitigate that risk even more." Yes it is under-dis...
by surfstar
Wed Dec 01, 2021 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4653834

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

livelifealittle wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 2:47 pm
atdharris wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 2:44 pm
livesoft wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 2:24 pm
atdharris wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 2:19 pm Officially lost 14 months worth of gains in my ARKK position. Maybe it's time to learn a lesson from this, book my small losses and roll it into VTI
Another lesson would be to learn to buy more when the something has dropped in value.
I am not sure what I will do. I hold ARKK as a riskier asset in my portfolio, and it does sound silly to sell after the big drop this year, but this is the risk and dilemma I take by owning non-index funds.
In the same boat with exactly the same dilemma :(
Going down with the Arkk? :D
by surfstar
Wed Dec 01, 2021 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Loss Harvesting and Wash Sale Rules
Replies: 21
Views: 1850

Re: Tax Loss Harvesting and Wash Sale Rules

rai wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 1:11 pm I have a question, if I had an E*TRADE and a Vanguard account, and sold/bought within the wash rule period but one was in a retirement account. How would it be possible for the IRS to determine? Surely they are not looking at every transaction across multiple platforms.

I’d it just the honor system?
Most of filing taxes is the honor system. Until it isn't.

Are you asking "for a friend" or are you planning on testing the system?

It is not hard to hold slightly different funds in taxable accounts and easily avoid wash rules. Very easy. Just takes a few mins of reading prior to starting your taxable account.
by surfstar
Wed Dec 01, 2021 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Net Worth Swings
Replies: 35
Views: 4017

Re: Net Worth Swings

This "metric" is as useful as buying an engagement ring that costs 3 month's salary.
Great. Can I base that off of the three months I wasn't working? Gross or net?

All that matters are expenses. Retire when you have enough to comfortably cover your expenses and up/down swings.
by surfstar
Wed Dec 01, 2021 12:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Please suggest my next car
Replies: 144
Views: 12554

Re: Please suggest my next car

The 2023 Acura Integra is coming out. 1.5T 6MT 4-door hatchback. Sport sedan. I'll be taking a look at that. the 'demise' of the car hatchback has bugged me... re: the numerous minivan comments above... they make me laugh because we navigated life w/ 4 children without ever defaulting to a minivan. we did SUV w/ three rows and it worked out fine. but we have rented a minivan on several occasions and i definitely understand why some people like them. they offer some nice features. but having one as an 'everyday driver' was not to our liking. opinions vary obviously. ----------------------------------------- Oh man, you started out as a practical "car guy" with the hatchback comment, then went downhill w/ a 3-row SUV. A minivan des...
by surfstar
Wed Dec 01, 2021 11:14 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How are People Mitigating Sequence of Return Risks?
Replies: 187
Views: 16699

Re: How are People Mitigating Sequence of Return Risks?

The true question (to me) is how to mitigate Working Too Long risk?

Very hard to do when you don't know when you'll die, how your health will hold up, etc. We're all trading our youngest years of life for money. Irks me every day :D
by surfstar
Mon Nov 29, 2021 5:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tree branch fell on my car [Resolved]
Replies: 34
Views: 4451

Re: Tree branch fell on my car [Resolved]

An update on this. I initially figured I’d just let the cracked tail light stay cracked. It did bug me to see it though, and the car has a lot of life left in it. It took months until I had time and access to a friends garage and tools. But I finally ordered the tail light part from Amazon for $230. I’m not the handiest person but it was pretty easy to replace. The scratches are still there but are imperceptible from more than 5 feet away. The tail light looks great and I’m glad to have saved almost $800. Well done and thanks for the closure! Time heals all - including how much we care about our shiny new car's appearance. Owning a "beater" = freedom (edit) I bet your car's value has risen 10-20% since you started this thread...!
by surfstar
Thu Nov 25, 2021 10:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: High Cost Once-in-a-lifetime "Vacation"
Replies: 196
Views: 23485

Re: High Cost Once-in-a-lifetime "Vacation"

JoeRetire wrote: Thu Nov 25, 2021 10:06 am
mrmass wrote: Thu Nov 25, 2021 9:52 am But what will you do when you turn 50?
If my friend's experience is any indication, it's obviously an even bigger "once-in-a-lifetime" vacation.
Repeat at least every 10 years.
Not a bad way to go through life.
by surfstar
Wed Nov 24, 2021 10:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: High Cost Once-in-a-lifetime "Vacation"
Replies: 196
Views: 23485

Re: High Cost Once-in-a-lifetime "Vacation"

I'll endorse your spending, but only if you can tell us your secret to that NW at that age with that savings rate. crypto? IPO? lol Great question. Actually it's all about this community. I've been working now full time for about 15 years, but only seriously started investing about 10 years ago. At that time one of my good friends introduced me to this forum and I've been a frequent reader (only a few time poster ever since). Definitely no IPOs and only started dabbling in Crypto with my "fun money" (which I think is not even an allowed discussion point here). No inheritance either. Have just worked at MegaCorp (my wife at the same one until a few years ago), and worked slowly up the corporate ladder to the fun place of middle ma...
by surfstar
Wed Nov 24, 2021 3:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Willing to share your Taxable Portfolio?
Replies: 381
Views: 57303

Re: Willing to share your Taxable Portfolio?

100% VTCLX

if we ever get to TLH, we'll use VLCAX
prevents any issues with wash sales and our retirement accounts

VTCLX = Vanguard Tax-Managed Capital Appreciation Fund
VLCAX = Vanguard Large Cap Index Fund
by surfstar
Wed Nov 24, 2021 3:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: High Cost Once-in-a-lifetime "Vacation"
Replies: 196
Views: 23485

Re: High Cost Once-in-a-lifetime "Vacation"

I'll endorse your spending, but only if you can tell us your secret to that NW at that age with that savings rate. crypto? IPO? lol
by surfstar
Wed Nov 24, 2021 11:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How silly is this idea? (Arbitrage on vehicle purchase)
Replies: 17
Views: 2192

Re: How silly is this idea? (Arbitrage on vehicle purchase)

Yes do the flip, but just finance the thing.

Carbitrage opportunities come up every now and then (quite rare) but jump on them when you can!

Didn't say (or I didn't see) when you'd receive/take delivery of the car. The new/used car market will change, but I think the crazy prices are going to hold strong for a while still. So I think its a pretty safe play.
by surfstar
Tue Nov 23, 2021 11:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Filling Gasoline Tank To The Brim To Compute MPG
Replies: 104
Views: 8344

Re: Filling Gasoline Tank To The Brim To Compute MPG

I have to admit, I'm stunned by how complex this whole conversation has gotten. There are MPG estimates on cars already. It's a flawed measure because there is no perfect measure. Some people quibble over 3 basis points on the expense ratio of funds that ultimately track the same benchmark. People like tracking thing. Whether it's tracking the thing itself, or tracking how *imperfect* the measure of that thing is. Onboard MPG is often and empirically a very poor estimate, and it's not difficult to scratch the itch to know how poor that estimate is. I am the original poster. For what it's worth, I've found that my onboard MPG actually tracks my hand calculations very well. On both a Lexus and a Subaru, both late models. I guess this is one ...
by surfstar
Fri Nov 19, 2021 12:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Filling Gasoline Tank To The Brim To Compute MPG
Replies: 104
Views: 8344

Re: Filling Gasoline Tank To The Brim To Compute MPG

D. C. Pline wrote: Thu Nov 18, 2021 6:41 pm
surfstar wrote: Thu Nov 18, 2021 3:28 pm Many readings over many tanks = accurate.

Fully thrown off with my plug-in hybrid now, except on long road trips. I'm data driven, yet have learned to move on :D
I second every word of this post. :)

I used to keep a spreadsheet. I could tell you the MPG over any given range of tanks: year 1, year 2, Spring, Summer, lifetime, etc.

Now I just drive.
:sharebeer

I could show how new tires impacted long-term MPG on my older vehicles with dozens and dozens of tanks logged. Or how driving no more than 65 mph had a large impact on MPG when gas priced soared and I had more time than money :-/
Now I track TCO and how I'm net positive after a tax credit on my Rav4 Prime :mrgreen:
by surfstar
Thu Nov 18, 2021 3:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Filling Gasoline Tank To The Brim To Compute MPG
Replies: 104
Views: 8344

Re: Filling Gasoline Tank To The Brim To Compute MPG

Many readings over many tanks = accurate.

Fully thrown off with my plug-in hybrid now, except on long road trips. I'm data driven, yet have learned to move on :D
by surfstar
Wed Nov 17, 2021 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?
Replies: 1587
Views: 210455

Re: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?

gubernaculum wrote: Tue Nov 16, 2021 11:07 am I would rather invest in TQQQ than Kathy Wood ARK funds. I dont think much of her or her understanding of tech and/or disruptive technologies.
Oh ye of little faith.

:D
by surfstar
Mon Nov 08, 2021 12:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: car lease regret--options?
Replies: 23
Views: 2996

Re: car lease regret--options?

$20k / 36 = $555.56

So they are paying an EXTRA $555/month over what was expected? Must be a fancy car.

https://www.azag.gov/consumer/auto
Remember: Arizona does NOT have a “cooling off” period or three-day right to cancel a car sale.

Seems like they are out of luck.
by surfstar
Mon Nov 08, 2021 12:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: car lease regret--options?
Replies: 23
Views: 2996

Re: car lease regret--options?

thrifty_one wrote: Mon Nov 08, 2021 12:00 pm Seems to me that Arizona has a right of recission law below that would apply here or no?

https://casetext.com/regulation/arizona ... f-contract

The purchaser or lessee has the legal right to rescind (cancel) this agreement without cause or reason of any kind, and to the return of any money or other consideration by sending or delivering a written notice of rescission to the seller or lessor by midnight of the seventh calendar day following the day the purchaser or lessee executed the agreement.
Not sure that applies to vehicles.
by surfstar
Mon Nov 08, 2021 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Inflation Estimates
Replies: 161
Views: 15322

Re: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Inflation Estimates

We refinanced into a 30-year 2.5% mortgage in Jan/Feb this year. Inflate that payment away!

Maybe if food gets expensive enough we can finally tackle the obesity epidemic of America? :oops:
by surfstar
Sun Nov 07, 2021 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Back Test Allocations? (after long bull market in bonds and US outperformance)
Replies: 77
Views: 5316

Re: Why Back Test Allocations? (after long bull market in bonds and US outperformance)

steve r wrote: Sun Nov 07, 2021 12:11 pm
pizzy wrote: Sun Nov 07, 2021 12:04 pm
livesoft wrote: Sun Nov 07, 2021 11:57 am Let me just state that backtesting will not precisely predict the future. If you don't ask for any precision, then backtesting is fine. And if things turn out better or worse than you expected, but it doesn't matter to you, then backtesting is fine.
I think you just described pointless. Lol
Will not predict the future -- I fully get.
Will not get any precision -- I am learning -- I thought you might get "some" precision -- if not it is is pointless.
So... you're saying...
Past performance is no guarantee of future results?
by surfstar
Sun Nov 07, 2021 12:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Can I buy this furniture? Should I?
Replies: 49
Views: 4958

Re: Can I buy this furniture? Should I?

Lesson environmental impact by purchasing used furniture, OP.
Invest money saved into a 529.
by surfstar
Fri Nov 05, 2021 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4653834

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Starfox wrote: Fri Nov 05, 2021 1:01 pm
nedsaid wrote: Fri Nov 05, 2021 12:50 pm
Starfox wrote: Fri Nov 05, 2021 12:48 pm When the Shiller PE ratio hit 40 today, I felt OK moving from 76/24 to 75/25. I didn't sell VOO at the high of the day, but 432.50 is pretty close.

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
So you are the one who caused this. :wink:
:sharebeer My IPS says to move 3% of my portfolio back into VOO if it falls 10% so I'll try to help everyone next time when the sky is falling. :greedy
Your IPS is pretty precise. Taking the effort to track and trade a 1% shift in AA...?
by surfstar
Thu Nov 04, 2021 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why is it so wrong to say the market is overvalued?
Replies: 241
Views: 20865

Re: why is it so wrong to say the market is overvalued?

surfstar wrote: Wed Nov 03, 2021 7:08 pm
surfstar wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 4:02 pm
linate wrote: Sat Oct 30, 2021 1:00 pm if we're not overvalued now, then we're almost never over valued.
Well, we're at a new ATH today. So obviously the market was not overvalued on 10/30 when you posted this. We have definitive evidence, right?
This just in - Tuesday's ATH was not overvalued in light of today's new ATH.
Ditto for Today/Thursday.

I'm beginning to think that nobody knows nuthin'.
by surfstar
Wed Nov 03, 2021 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recession probabilities are on the rise. Could a recession be on the horizon?
Replies: 149
Views: 15893

Re: Recession probabilities are on the rise. Could a recession be on the horizon?

millennialinvestor wrote: Wed Nov 03, 2021 6:23 pm
KlangFool wrote: Wed Nov 03, 2021 6:06 pm OP,

I do not care. I am prepared. If you care, that means you are not prepared.

KlangFool
You will care if the market experiences a big correction. You will care if we experience a lost decade.
*yawn*
wake me up at the end of the lost decade. I'll be waiting, invested fully.
by surfstar
Wed Nov 03, 2021 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why is it so wrong to say the market is overvalued?
Replies: 241
Views: 20865

Re: why is it so wrong to say the market is overvalued?

surfstar wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 4:02 pm
linate wrote: Sat Oct 30, 2021 1:00 pm if we're not overvalued now, then we're almost never over valued.
Well, we're at a new ATH today. So obviously the market was not overvalued on 10/30 when you posted this. We have definitive evidence, right?
This just in - Tuesday's ATH was not overvalued in light of today's new ATH.