Search found 9130 matches

by TheTimeLord
Sun Apr 18, 2021 7:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall
Replies: 66
Views: 7450

Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

I am sure like with stocks and index funds one man's free fall is another man's buying opportunity.
by TheTimeLord
Sun Apr 18, 2021 6:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would Bogle think of Dogecoin?
Replies: 30
Views: 1518

Re: What would Bogle think of Dogecoin?

I know John Bogle commented on cryptocurrency before he passed. If I recall correctly, he said “ avoid Bitcoin like the plague. Did I make myself clear?” What do you think he would say if he were alive today, with Bitcoin trading at $55,000 and Dogecoin market cap at more than $51 Billion. This is ...
by TheTimeLord
Sun Apr 18, 2021 6:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those adding Crypto as an asset class to their AA
Replies: 139
Views: 7404

Re: For those adding Crypto as an asset class to their AA

Do people count this towards their equity allocation or in their alternative allocation? So if you're 70% equities and 5% BTC do you consider yourself being a 75/25 or a 70/25/5? I personally consider crypto a separate asset class. When I compute my asset allocation, I exclude cryptos from both equ...
by TheTimeLord
Fri Apr 16, 2021 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14631
Views: 1123730

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Following the White Rabbit. The journey continues.

“Tyr!”
by TheTimeLord
Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14631
Views: 1123730

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Robot Monster wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:46 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:36 am Also, rising rates means they will collect more interest on their cash hordes.
The rise on the 10yr doesn't translate to a rise in short-term yields, though. The 10yr could be at 2%-3% while the Fed funds rate remains zero.
by TheTimeLord
Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14631
Views: 1123730

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Nasdaq furiously clawing its way upward despite the 10yr surge. These two have turned into diabolical enemies, like Beowulf and Grendel locked in battle. I think at some point people will realize this narrative doesn't work for Big Tech with huge amounts of cash on their balances sheets, if they ha...
by TheTimeLord
Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14631
Views: 1123730

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Nasdaq furiously clawing its way upward despite the 10yr surge. These two have turned into diabolical enemies, like Beowulf and Grendel locked in battle. I think at some point people will realize this narrative doesn't work for Big Tech with huge amounts of cash on their balances sheets, if they ha...
by TheTimeLord
Fri Apr 16, 2021 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14631
Views: 1123730

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

OohLaLa wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 1:20 am
abuss368 wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 7:11 pm I am backing up the truck soon! 😂😂

Tony
Me too, but, in comparison to you, I just have one of those USPS mini-trucks:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... _Truck.jpg
So only about a quarter million?
by TheTimeLord
Thu Apr 15, 2021 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14631
Views: 1123730

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Pretty sure my portfolio added at least a cool $500 today!!! :sharebeer :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag
by TheTimeLord
Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14631
Views: 1123730

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I'm calling the Bitcoin high, $28k and change was the top. This makes a stock market correction of around 10% quite likely in Jan/Feb. Early days but looking increasingly like I correctly nailed the Bitcoin top. I remain bearish on the big tech stocks, equal weight S&P 500 ($RSP) will 100% out-...
by TheTimeLord
Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do tax preparer add value for 7 figure W2 income
Replies: 32
Views: 1889

Re: Do tax preparer add value for 7 figure W2 income

Yes, because if you are making 7 figures your time is worth more than you would pay a tax preparer or CPA. On the other hand, you should be able to bang out a W-2 tax return in 30-45 minutes. The time it takes to deliver the docs, return and sign the 8879 etc might not be less. A good point.
by TheTimeLord
Thu Apr 15, 2021 12:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do tax preparer add value for 7 figure W2 income
Replies: 32
Views: 1889

Re: Do tax preparer add value for 7 figure W2 income

Yes, because if you are making 7 figures your time is worth more than you would pay a tax preparer or CPA.
by TheTimeLord
Thu Apr 15, 2021 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14631
Views: 1123730

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

livesoft wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 12:16 pm
e5116 wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 12:06 pm I keep waiting for a pullback and it never happens.
Here is what the pullback looked like in 2021 in a Morningstar chart:

Image

You must have slept through it because it happened.
Livesoft endorsing the MTUM, today is a momentous day indeed.
by TheTimeLord
Thu Apr 15, 2021 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds as ballast and a rising Glide path
Replies: 29
Views: 2074

Re: Bonds as ballast and a rising Glide path

I see a "rising equity glide path" as a fancy way of saying "bucket strategy." or it can mean a rising ability to take risk due to decreasing remaining lifespan A key component because a decreasing lifespan or at least the narrowing of the range of outcomes gives you the ability...
by TheTimeLord
Thu Apr 15, 2021 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds as ballast and a rising Glide path
Replies: 29
Views: 2074

Re: Bonds as ballast and a rising Glide path

I see a "rising equity glide path" as a fancy way of saying "bucket strategy." So I set a bound of what I NEED. For us, that means 10 years in cash, TIPS, and GNMAE funds. (I am currently estimating between $40k to $50k per year). That gets us both to 70, with COLA'd pension and...
by TheTimeLord
Thu Apr 15, 2021 11:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If you hit your # would you retire in this market?
Replies: 124
Views: 13813

Re: If you hit your # would you retire in this market?

mnsportsgeek wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 11:14 am Yes. If my number doesn't allow me to retire comfortably then it's not a real number.
I think this pretty much hits the nail on the head.
by TheTimeLord
Thu Apr 15, 2021 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14631
Views: 1123730

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

eye.surgeon wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:58 am
Tamalak wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 6:44 am I guess we know what people are doing with their refunds
Investors that drive the market don't get tax refunds.
FWIW, I get a tax refund every year.
by TheTimeLord
Thu Apr 15, 2021 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds as ballast and a rising Glide path
Replies: 29
Views: 2074

Re: Bonds as ballast and a rising Glide path

If you hold bonds as ballast for equities then you need to maintain the same AA no matter how much. If you hold bonds in terms of expenses then there will be a point where you have enough. So you are saying you should maintain your AA, so for a 50/50 portfolio... ... that is 25X you have 12.5X in B...
by TheTimeLord
Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14631
Views: 1123730

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Making $10k a day in my portfolio is getting old real fast. Remember last March when we couldn't handle seeing the dread, end of world and sell comments in the free fall thread? You and I both had to move over to the Calm thread. We're getting rewarded for holding last March. I'll take it. :beer Ye...
by TheTimeLord
Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds as ballast and a rising Glide path
Replies: 29
Views: 2074

Re: Bonds as ballast and a rising Glide path

If you hold bonds as ballast for equities then you need to maintain the same AA no matter how much. If you hold bonds in terms of expenses then there will be a point where you have enough. So you are saying you should maintain your AA, so for a 50/50 portfolio... ... that is 25X you have 12.5X in B...
by TheTimeLord
Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14631
Views: 1123730

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

We had a big crash last March.... that was the chance to get in on the cheap. I would contend the event in March did not last long enough to be considered a crash and most likely has built unrealistic expectations for how quickly markets recover. Go back and read the "dread" comments from...
by TheTimeLord
Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14631
Views: 1123730

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

You have to admit there is a steady beat of "the big crash is coming" and "market is overpriced" and "this can't last" on this site and in the media (which I ignore). :D The stock market climbs a wall of worry :greedy Worries are specific events that either don't come ...
by TheTimeLord
Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14631
Views: 1123730

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Yesterdaysnews wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 9:22 am We had a big crash last March.... that was the chance to get in on the cheap.
I would contend the event in March did not last long enough to be considered a crash and most likely has built unrealistic expectations for how quickly markets recover.
by TheTimeLord
Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds as ballast and a rising Glide path
Replies: 29
Views: 2074

Re: Bonds as ballast and a rising Glide path

If you hold bonds as ballast for equities then you need to maintain the same AA no matter how much. If you hold bonds in terms of expenses then there will be a point where you have enough. So you are saying you should maintain your AA, so for a 50/50 portfolio... ... that is 25X you have 12.5X in B...
by TheTimeLord
Thu Apr 15, 2021 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14631
Views: 1123730

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

All news is spun as bad news, but the market continues to soar. :sharebeer They were almost partying on CNBC when the number came out, no on seemed to think they were bad news. You have to admit there is a steady beat of "the big crash is coming" and "market is overpriced" and &...
by TheTimeLord
Thu Apr 15, 2021 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Watch out for inflation numbers
Replies: 49
Views: 5037

Re: Watch out for inflation numbers

I recently checked Auto rental rates and they have gone absolutely beserk, 1st week of June (NOT a holiday weekend), in Las Vegas econobox cars are renting for around $85/day. A friend said cars in the Yellowstone area were renting at $2000/week. :shock: Crazy! That is very likely to be very transi...
by TheTimeLord
Thu Apr 15, 2021 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds as ballast and a rising Glide path
Replies: 29
Views: 2074

Bonds as ballast and a rising Glide path

If bonds are ballast doesn't there come a point where you have enough ballast and couldn't that lead to a rising glide path as one approaches retirement and even into retirement if your assets grow beyond 25X? This seems logical to me but wondering how others see it.
by TheTimeLord
Thu Apr 15, 2021 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14631
Views: 1123730

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

tsohg wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 8:15 am All news is spun as bad news, but the market continues to soar.

:sharebeer
They were almost partying on CNBC when the number came out, no on seemed to think they were bad news.
by TheTimeLord
Thu Apr 15, 2021 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14631
Views: 1123730

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

According to CNBC the 10 yr just dropped below 1.60%. Which is interesting considering retail sales were up 9.8%. i thought people were supposed to be getting all scared about inflation, which you would think would drive yields up. I find the recent action in the 10 yr curious, perhaps foreign buyi...
by TheTimeLord
Thu Apr 15, 2021 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14631
Views: 1123730

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

According to CNBC the 10 yr just dropped below 1.60%. Which is interesting considering retail sales were up 9.8%.
by TheTimeLord
Thu Apr 15, 2021 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those adding Crypto as an asset class to their AA
Replies: 139
Views: 7404

For those adding Crypto as an asset class to their AA

For those adding crypto as an asset class to their AA: How are you adding it? --Buying crypto, --Buying Trust instruments, --Buying companies participating in crypto What type of account are you using? -- Taxable, Tax Deferred or Roth -- Brokerage, Coinbase, PayPal, etc. What size allocation are you...
by TheTimeLord
Wed Apr 14, 2021 12:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Nobody's ever regretted paying off the mortgage."
Replies: 306
Views: 20070

Re: "Nobody's ever regretted paying off the mortgage."

For people who view things from a cash-flow perspective paying off a mortgage greatly improves monthly cashflow substantially by eliminating what is for most people by far the largest line item in their monthly budget.
by TheTimeLord
Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14631
Views: 1123730

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Robot Monster wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:39 am
lostdog wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:31 am International looking good today too.
Especially emerging markets +0.92%, which I encouraged people to invest in just yesterday. link :wink:

PS I did, myself, back the truck up on EM yesterday, as it happens.
IJR is up +1.91%. IWM is up +1.95%.
by TheTimeLord
Wed Apr 14, 2021 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14631
Views: 1123730

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Looks like it is a soaring day for the reopening trade today.
by TheTimeLord
Wed Apr 14, 2021 8:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14631
Views: 1123730

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

BAH! I can't? Apparently I can't buy leveraged ETFs in a Roth, or at least Vanguard isn't letting me. Yes, you can't. Vanguard now has a policy against leveraged and inverse ETFs. I was able to do this at Vanguard in 2008, but not recently. Considering Vanguard ETFs trade commission free at many br...
by TheTimeLord
Wed Apr 14, 2021 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14631
Views: 1123730

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Tamalak wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 8:52 am 72% gains annualized for April so far :oops:
Wow, maybe you could provide annualized gains for each trading day. What value does annualizing a couple weeks of gains have?
by TheTimeLord
Wed Apr 14, 2021 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14631
Views: 1123730

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I rather like that term. “Blow-off top”. Like an oil well spewing hundreds of feet in the air. I don’t believe the stock market is there yet. Not even close. Same. This is a wild guess and not actionable. We'll have a bull market for a few years at least. People are ready to spend, travel, eat out ...
by TheTimeLord
Mon Apr 12, 2021 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can this be true? [CNBC: Investors put more money into stocks]
Replies: 24
Views: 3741

Re: Can this be true?

For every buyer of existing shares, there has to be a seller . So you'll have to read between the lines, I guess, so see what they really mean and who is who in this story. Once you get past the headline, you'll see it's actually fund inflow. Money really does flow into funds. It doesn't flow into ...
by TheTimeLord
Sun Apr 11, 2021 9:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pre-retirement checklist, what is on yours?
Replies: 77
Views: 9175

Re: Pre-retirement checklist, what is on yours?

At this point in my approach to retirement I am all about risk management and making sure I can afford to do what I want in the early years of my retirement when I am most likely to be healthy and physically able. If I turn out to be an incredibly virile and active 80 year old I figure something ou...
by TheTimeLord
Thu Apr 08, 2021 12:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Consolidate Fidelity to Vanguard or not
Replies: 33
Views: 2473

Re: Consolidate Fidelity to Vanguard or not

So if I understand it, I can buy VTI in Fidelity Taxable for $0 fees? Then why did I get charged $4.95 to sell my ESPP stock in that same account? Is that an ESPP related thing or is it related to the type of taxable account I have? Did you call them to make the trade because Fidelity charges $0 co...
by TheTimeLord
Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Consolidate Fidelity to Vanguard or not
Replies: 33
Views: 2473

Re: Consolidate Fidelity to Vanguard or not

I have Schwab, Fido, and Vanguard. I would never cosolidate anything into Vanguard. Stick with Fidelity for a few reasons. One,Fidelity allows for fractional share investing for ETFs and stocks. Two, Fidelity's web and app interfaces are light years ahead of Vanguard. I second this. I see no issue ...
by TheTimeLord
Wed Apr 07, 2021 3:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much cash do you really hold?
Replies: 91
Views: 6287

Re: How much cash do you really hold?

It would seem different people view their portfolios in different ways. Which is probably the genesis for all the hand wringing around "cash". I think people are closeted about their short-term reserve holdings because it's considered a bit of a sin. Admit you have "cash equivalents&...
by TheTimeLord
Wed Apr 07, 2021 2:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much cash do you really hold?
Replies: 91
Views: 6287

Re: How much cash do you really hold?

I am always intrigued by the BH fascination with this mystical thing called cash. If your money is in something that generates a return it is invested imho. What BH like to call cash is just ultra short duration. So to me cash is what's in my wallet and anything held in a way that doesn't generate ...
by TheTimeLord
Wed Apr 07, 2021 2:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much cash do you really hold?
Replies: 91
Views: 6287

Re: How much cash do you really hold?

I am always intrigued by the BH fascination with this mystical thing called cash. If your money is in something that generates a return it is invested imho. What BH like to call cash is just ultra short duration. So to me cash is what's in my wallet and anything held in a way that doesn't generate ...
by TheTimeLord
Wed Apr 07, 2021 11:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much cash do you really hold?
Replies: 91
Views: 6287

Re: How much cash do you really hold?

I am always intrigued by the BH fascination with this mystical thing called cash. If your money is in something that generates a return it is invested imho. What BH like to call cash is just ultra short duration. So to me cash is what's in my wallet and anything held in a way that doesn't generate a...
by TheTimeLord
Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14631
Views: 1123730

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Morpheus: “You take the blue pill, the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill, you stay in wonderland, and I show you how deep the rabbit hole goes.”

Hoping to continue my journey as a red pill investor.
by TheTimeLord
Wed Apr 07, 2021 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSLA gamed the system - Could Index Funds Be ‘Worse Than Marxism’?
Replies: 108
Views: 11438

Re: TSLA gamed the system - Could Index Funds Be ‘Worse Than Marxism’?

After the number of shares go up the index funds buy more shares. Why ? Best I can tell he is assuming the share price will be unaffected by the dilution thus the market cap will rise and when the market cap weighted indexes rebalance they will buy a greater amount of Tesla. Of course this also ass...
by TheTimeLord
Tue Apr 06, 2021 10:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 High Dividend ETF - SPYD
Replies: 53
Views: 4664

Re: S&P 500 High Dividend ETF - SPYD

Bogleheads - Interested to know if anyone invests in this fund? The yield is close to 4.85% and contains 80 of the 500 companies from the S&P 500 fund. The ETF is however equal weight and not market cap weight which has resulted is frequent rebalancing and turnover. Adding this ETF to the S&...
by TheTimeLord
Tue Apr 06, 2021 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 Years and 100% VTI
Replies: 111
Views: 12495

Re: 30 Years and 100% VTI

Let's say you're going to be away from your investments for 30 years and will never add another dime or see your portfolio. The point is to take human emotion out of the equation completely, so you're Tom Hanks in Cast Away for 30 years and can't find out what the markets are/economy is doing if yo...
by TheTimeLord
Tue Apr 06, 2021 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14631
Views: 1123730

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

atdharris wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 10:18 am I guess the tech correction is over.
Not until Forester capitulates.