Search found 815 matches

by Meaty
Mon Feb 22, 2021 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 9089
Views: 912873

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

The bear case for bonds is straightforward - there is a strong expectation that inflation will materialize soon. Whether it will or not or by what degree is the trillion dollar question. Inflation is very bad for TMF (look at 1955-1980 backtests), but not necessary bad for UPRO. You can read about ...
by Meaty
Mon Feb 22, 2021 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 9089
Views: 912873

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Can someone explain to me why bond yields rising is bad for this strategy / a "bear case"? I thought bond yields going up is good for bonds? The price of a bond is inversely correlated to interest rates So if bond yields go up, wouldn’t that mean interest rates are going down? I would res...
by Meaty
Mon Feb 22, 2021 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 9089
Views: 912873

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Bond yield getting up = bond price down = TMF down Once investors see bond yield has enough attraction for them they will dump equity from upro to bond. It makes sense? But here’s the problem: if that’s the case, Tmf should up instead of down. Any the question is where is the money going from equit...
by Meaty
Mon Jan 25, 2021 5:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Multiple of expenses before career downshift
Replies: 2
Views: 480

Multiple of expenses before career downshift

Like the title says - I’m burning out and looking to down shift my career. Is there guidance on how much should be saved before doing so?
by Meaty
Wed Jan 13, 2021 6:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Got a job offer for $840k/yr. Should I come out of retirement?
Replies: 229
Views: 29450

Re: Got a job offer for $840k/yr. Should I come out of retirement?

I'm struggling with whether or not to come out of retirement and would love to get some feedback from fellow Bogleheads. Background I retired in 2018, when I was 35 year old, right before my 36th birthday. I'm now 38 and have a stock portfolio >$6 million. (98% broad market index funds, 2% cash, ze...
by Meaty
Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 9089
Views: 912873

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

TMF 15% down in 7 days. How is everyone doing? Frustrating to be more than 5% down when the market went 2% up. 15% in 7 days is nothing . UPRO lost 77% between 2/19/20 and 3/23/20. A bigger concern isn't 15% vs 77% but that SPX down -0.15% and TMF going -2%. Not working as a hedge right now. Both s...
by Meaty
Sat Jan 09, 2021 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 9089
Views: 912873

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Does anyone watch the 30 year treasury yield ? We're almost back to 2%. I vaguely remember someone here mentioning getting back into the strategy (or switching their hedge back to TMF) around this point. It's a bit arbitrary but we're almost back at pre-pandemic rates - the question is, where to no...
by Meaty
Thu Jan 07, 2021 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 9089
Views: 912873

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Considering the 10 year is projected to hit 1.5 this year, how much will TMF fall in price if that occurs? I’m unsure how to calculate
by Meaty
Tue Jan 05, 2021 9:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Back door Roth help
Replies: 4
Views: 346

Re: Back door Roth help

Hi I’m trying to complete my back door Roth contribution for the year by selling some of my taxable vtsax at vanguard, putting it *in my settlement fund* , and then using that to fund my traditional Ira. I’ve got the money *into the settlement fund* but the website says using funds from the settlem...
by Meaty
Tue Jan 05, 2021 6:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Back door Roth help
Replies: 4
Views: 346

Back door Roth help

Hi I’m trying to complete my back door Roth contribution for the year by selling some of my taxable vtsax at vanguard, putting it in my settlement fund, and then using that to fund my traditional Ira. I’ve got the money into the settlement fund but the website says using funds from the settlement fu...
by Meaty
Mon Jan 04, 2021 8:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Who is ACTUALLY working PT just for benefits?
Replies: 14
Views: 1691

Re: Who is ACTUALLY working PT just for benefits?

Would also love to hear as I’m considering this myself
by Meaty
Wed Dec 30, 2020 2:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Junk removal companies?
Replies: 42
Views: 3531

Re: Junk removal companies?

I have a move coming up, and I anticipate that I will have maybe 1/3 of a garage full of junk or near-junk (i.e., things that I wouldn't bother to burden Goodwill with). I plan to hire a junk-removal company, but I didn't know if it was better to go with the "GOT JUNK" folks (big national...
by Meaty
Wed Dec 30, 2020 2:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wait until 70 to take social security?
Replies: 161
Views: 16198

Re: Wait until 70 to take social security?

I’m 65, retired, approaching my full retirement at 66and 2 months. Take S.S. then and get $2760 a month or wait until 70 and get $3607 ?I live frugally, and don’t need the added money. When I run the numbers, investing the earlier amount at 6% leads to a head start the larger withdrawal doesn’t cat...
by Meaty
Tue Dec 29, 2020 7:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to get higher returns with secured loans
Replies: 53
Views: 3047

Re: How to get higher returns with secured loans

What sort of paperwork do you do? I imagine the biggest is getting the mortgage loan recorded with the county? I imagine it's just a signed contract, then pay 'john seller their 30k(from 1st example)', then record with the county on the property in question? +1 Once the seller agrees to my offer, I...
by Meaty
Tue Dec 29, 2020 7:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to get higher returns with secured loans
Replies: 53
Views: 3047

Re: How to get higher returns with secured loans

zie wrote: Tue Dec 29, 2020 6:44 pm What sort of paperwork do you do? I imagine the biggest is getting the mortgage loan recorded with the county?

I imagine it's just a signed contract, then pay 'john seller their 30k(from 1st example)', then record with the county on the property in question?
+1
by Meaty
Sun Dec 27, 2020 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 9089
Views: 912873

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Year in review. My hedge fund is split in to 3 tranches: 50% OG (40 UPRO/60 TMF) - rebalanced quarterly. 25% 21-day lookback Risk Parity - rebalanced monthly. 25% Target 16-vol w/ 21-day lookback - rebalanced monthly. -- March was a crazy ride. Peaked on 3/9 and then by 3/18, had lost 50% of its va...
by Meaty
Wed Dec 23, 2020 10:46 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tips vs online savings account
Replies: 7
Views: 553

Re: Tips vs online savings account

Thanks all. Serious bummer; seems there’s little alternative in the current environment
by Meaty
Wed Dec 23, 2020 8:38 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tips vs online savings account
Replies: 7
Views: 553

Tips vs online savings account

With rates so low (around .35 at Barclays) what are the collective thoughts of using TIPS for an emergency fund? Any major disadvantages?

Thanks
by Meaty
Sun Dec 20, 2020 6:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: cost of education
Replies: 59
Views: 3779

Re: cost of education

Hi all, I came across this site by accident but love reading the forum. I'm also a fund of low cost index funds. I'm curious of opinions on college educations cost and if it's worth it. A state school costs about $120k (Texas) and a top tier private college about $320k for four years with 200k diff...
by Meaty
Fri Dec 18, 2020 9:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does company loyalty still exist?
Replies: 64
Views: 4502

Re: Does company loyalty still exist?

Hello Bogleheads, I am reaching out to hear your opinions on a difficult employment situation. I am a government contractor, and have left (and returned) to the same contract company... twice! We just won our recompete with 1 base year and 3 option years which means that there is likely some short ...
by Meaty
Fri Dec 18, 2020 8:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help - selling covered calls
Replies: 15
Views: 792

Re: Help - selling covered calls

Thanks to all that have replied. I’m looking at the premiums and they also seem rather muted; almost not worth the effort of setting these up. That said, I’m glad I wasn’t blatantly missing another risk.
by Meaty
Fri Dec 18, 2020 7:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help - selling covered calls
Replies: 15
Views: 792

Help - selling covered calls

I know options aren’t usually discussed but I deeply value the expertise on this forum. As far as I can discern, selling covered calls has only 2 risks. One, the value of the stock declines (true anytime holding individual stocks). The second is the risk the security expires in the money - but even ...
by Meaty
Thu Sep 17, 2020 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 9089
Views: 912873

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

This strategy has underperformed for a few weeks. Don't read too much into it. There are whole years where the strategy lost 10-15 percent. I'm still up 15% for the 5 months I've been it. There are whole years the S&P has lost even more. I’m down 2% this week, 5% this month, UP 11% this quarter...
by Meaty
Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How are mortgages approved?
Replies: 6
Views: 654

Re: How are mortgages approved?

Debt to income, loan to value, credit score, stability of income (to a smaller extent than last 3).
by Meaty
Thu Sep 17, 2020 6:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 9089
Views: 912873

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Good news for those of us with high TMF allocations. Looks like we shouldn't have to worry about rate hikes until at least 2023. Again, I'd like to remind everyone that this is a very long-term strategy on the order of decades, and it's silly to focus on time periods as short as 3 years. However, t...
by Meaty
Sat Sep 12, 2020 6:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying off sub 4% mortgage interest rate early
Replies: 167
Views: 15199

Re: Paying off sub 4% mortgage interest rate early

ohboy! wrote: Sat Sep 12, 2020 1:15 pm I paid off my 3.7% this year. Can’t get even close to that fixed return.
I paid off 3.6% about 2 years ago. Best decision ever
by Meaty
Fri Sep 11, 2020 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 9089
Views: 912873

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Try DCA monthly instead of biweekly and use DCA to bring back allocation in balance. By reducing sale of rising ETF, you will reduce your capital gain tax bill. In my backtesting with TQQQ/TMF, biweekly rebalancing had poorer results compared to monthly rebalancing. I can't explain the reasons. I d...
by Meaty
Fri Sep 11, 2020 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 9089
Views: 912873

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Is anyone dollar cost averaging into this strategy? I run this in both Roth and taxable and have been adding bi-weekly to the taxable portion and will probably add more Roth next year too. Interested to know if anyone has determined if that would be detrimental (ie essentially rebalancing away from...
by Meaty
Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 9089
Views: 912873

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Is anyone dollar cost averaging into this strategy? I run this in both Roth and taxable and have been adding bi-weekly to the taxable portion and will probably add more Roth next year too. Interested to know if anyone has determined if that would be detrimental (ie essentially rebalancing away from ...
by Meaty
Wed Sep 09, 2020 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 9089
Views: 912873

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Has there been resolution on the inclusion of VXX? Something like 70 UPRO 25 TMF 5 VXX?
by Meaty
Wed Sep 09, 2020 6:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 9089
Views: 912873

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I am considering buying 55% UPRO / 45% TMF in a brokerage account. Is a brokerage account fine or do people recommend using a Roth IRA? Also can I just use Robinhood or would you recommend Vanguard Brokerage Account? Others say not to use taxable, I think that concern is overblown. Yes, you will in...
by Meaty
Fri Sep 04, 2020 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 9089
Views: 912873

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Stef wrote: Fri Sep 04, 2020 11:04 am Is TQQQ/TMF really a good idea?
HF himself didn’t think so. He made reference to alternatives to UPRO in his first post. The volatility is much greater than UPRO.
by Meaty
Fri Sep 04, 2020 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 9089
Views: 912873

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

vijaym73 wrote: Fri Sep 04, 2020 7:29 am Yesterday lost 11.83%

Currently am TQQQ/TMF in 70/30 ratio

Next rebalance is October 1st
I was down 6% yesterday but am up 70% this year. I can’t complain
by Meaty
Thu Sep 03, 2020 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 9089
Views: 912873

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

It’s a long term strategy. March was rough too but this investment shouldn’t be viewed in 1 day increments anyway
by Meaty
Mon Aug 31, 2020 5:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 9089
Views: 912873

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Haven't stopped by in a while. Is anyone bailing out of the HF EA at the current highs? I'm probably bailing this week. I went in with part of my Roth in April, and now I'm up about 40%. At the time I really did intend to go along with the intent of this -- committing a certain amount to the wild v...
by Meaty
Sun Aug 30, 2020 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 9089
Views: 912873

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Hello Everyone, I used to follow these post in 2019 and up until June of 2020. I had some cash which was 10% of my total worth which I saved in an investment account for future use. Cue the drop in March and I went all in on 33% UPRO; 33% TQQQ and 33% FNGU. I did so because the market had crashed a...
by Meaty
Thu Aug 27, 2020 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 9089
Views: 912873

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Thanks. I agree and think the Fed announcement today has no impact either - other than asserting run away inflation won’t be a worry for this strategy in the near term (5ish years) My feeling is in agreement with this... but then why are yields up so strongly today and TMF is down 5% for the day? I...
by Meaty
Thu Aug 27, 2020 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 9089
Views: 912873

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Along the lines of the shift to 55/45, I’m seriously contemplating lowering TMF to 35 (UPRO at 65) given these low rates. Thoughts from the group? I might consider an even 60/40 for nostalgia's sake (the non-leveraged 60/40 portfolio being such a champ for such a long time), but given Tyler's artic...
by Meaty
Wed Aug 26, 2020 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 9089
Views: 912873

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

How about UPRO/TMF/UGL/UTSL - 55/25/10/10 Thanks for the feedback. Per PV, UGL and UTSL have stock market correlations of .06 and .57, respectively. TMF, on the other hand, has a correlation of -.48. For zig and zag purposes, it seems TMF is the better choice. I'm wondering if a modest change from ...
by Meaty
Tue Aug 25, 2020 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 9089
Views: 912873

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Right, taojaxx is basically talking about stagflation/hyperinflation which Semantics seems to discount as a remote possibility. In normal times, there is little inflation when the economy crashes. Who knows about the next time though. If stagflation/hyperinflation happens, the only winner might be ...
by Meaty
Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 9089
Views: 912873

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Along the lines of the shift to 55/45, I’m seriously contemplating lowering TMF to 35 (UPRO at 65) given these low rates. Thoughts from the group?
by Meaty
Mon Aug 24, 2020 6:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 9089
Views: 912873

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Read this: So with this new data, I think the bottom line for the strategy is this: If you believe we will ever return to the Federal Reserve interest rate regime of pre-1982, then you should probably not pursue this. If, however, you believe that the Fed post-Volcker is a fundamentally different p...
by Meaty
Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 9089
Views: 912873

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

VXX does work and what I am using, but you treat it like your home owners or car insurance... ya it looses value, but it is there to take on the jolts... and a little bit goes a very long way. Bigern tested this theory here: https://earlyretirementnow.com/2020/04/22/three-equity-investing-styles-th...
by Meaty
Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 9089
Views: 912873

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

To those on the original HFEA, has anyone considered revising the 55/45 UPRO/TMF allocation? HF revised the allocation one year ago from 40/60 to 55/45 after 30 yr treasury yields fell to 2.25%. The rationale was the insurance (TMF) was becoming more expensive. Since August 2019, the 30 yr yield ha...
by Meaty
Fri Aug 21, 2020 7:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying Down Debt vs. Building Emergency Fund
Replies: 57
Views: 2381

Re: Paying Down Debt vs. Building Emergency Fund

35 year old newly divorced male with young son. In divorce settlement I inherited roughly 25k in debt (credit cards and personal loans my ex wife took out without my knowledge). My credit score is in the low 600s due to past bad decisions, I’m trying to get my life turned around. Currently have a s...
by Meaty
Sat Aug 15, 2020 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 9089
Views: 912873

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

We're pretty much in the middle of a market shock. Rates have dropped. Volatility remains high compared to pre-COVID. I think, it's job has been done. What's the value to continue holding it? If you're suggesting another market crash can't closely follow a previous market crash maybe you're right. ...
by Meaty
Sat Aug 15, 2020 7:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 9089
Views: 912873

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Started in a Roth IRA on 01/09/2020, made two small contributions in Jan and Feb. (I'm pretty confident we won't be contributing anything further to this strategy, though I still believe in the fundamental premise of it.) Currently 5% of invested assets. 26.82% return so far this year, XIRR 56.19% ...
by Meaty
Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 9089
Views: 912873

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

We're pretty much in the middle of a market shock. Rates have dropped. Volatility remains high compared to pre-COVID. I think, it's job has been done. What's the value to continue holding it? If you're suggesting another market crash can't closely follow a previous market crash maybe you're right. ...
by Meaty
Fri Aug 14, 2020 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 9089
Views: 912873

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Bit of a different topic. Anyone know what financing rates TQQQ and TMF are currently paying in this environment? Especially interested in TMF. Want to quantify the "borrow short; lend long" effect. EDIT: The only things I could find is the annual reports for last year. It's hard to tell ...