Search found 1083 matches

by MoonOrb
Sat May 15, 2021 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
Replies: 78
Views: 5652

Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel

I just accept that as part of my investing approach that of course there will be times that bonds will be hammered, but I'm not really sure when this is going to be. Maybe it will be in the next three years. Maybe it won't be in the next three years. I've given up on trying to figure out when these ...
by MoonOrb
Sat Apr 17, 2021 3:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to locate a photograph on the internet?
Replies: 17
Views: 1782

Re: How to locate a photograph on the internet?

You could probably find a subreddit to post it to and harness the power of lots of helpful nerds.
by MoonOrb
Thu Apr 15, 2021 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Mortgage is a negative bond" - please help me understand
Replies: 336
Views: 18279

Re: "Mortage is a negative bond" - please help me understand

How do you guys have it in you to have this same argument every single month?
by MoonOrb
Thu Apr 08, 2021 2:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Recommendation for simple home gym
Replies: 41
Views: 3413

Re: Recommendation for simple home gym

I'd recommend 2 smallish kettlebells. I think giving her a kettlebell as a specific piece of equipment will make this seem more focused for her, narrow down the types of exercises she can do, and give her some momentum and sense of accomplishment as she moves from one kettlebell to another. I think ...
by MoonOrb
Sun Mar 14, 2021 1:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to be a good manager ?
Replies: 21
Views: 1235

Re: How to be a good manager ?

There are tons of attributes that can make someone a good manager (or a terrible manager). One of the best books I have read is Liz Wizeman's "Multipliers." I also liked Dan and Chip Heath's "Switch." Some key attributes: Transparency Compassion Listening first Honesty Clarity Co...
by MoonOrb
Fri Mar 12, 2021 5:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If you hit your # would you retire in this market?
Replies: 124
Views: 14209

Re: If you hit your # would you retire in this market?

If I hit the right number, I hit the right number, how I feel about the market has nothing to do with it. I can't predict the market so I don't feel anything about it, it is outside of my control. What is within my control are taking the day to day actions that help me achieve that number, and settl...
by MoonOrb
Mon Mar 08, 2021 10:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tips to stick to a weight loss diet?
Replies: 331
Views: 23367

Re: Tips to stick to a weight loss diet?

Here's stuff that has worked for me: my situation is that I tend to fluctuate between being very lean and being not very lean, but I have not been obese and I've never felt like I needed to lose a lot of weight for my health or other reasons; I think the difference between my adult leanest weight an...
by MoonOrb
Sun Mar 07, 2021 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Four Horsemen of Underperformance - Signs of Life
Replies: 29
Views: 3798

Re: The Four Horsemen of Underperformance - Signs of Life

I feel like this is analogous to a fundamental attribution error: too much is being inferred about the economy in general because of beliefs about the type or qualities of a particular company.
by MoonOrb
Sun Mar 07, 2021 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Four Horsemen of Underperformance - Signs of Life
Replies: 29
Views: 3798

Re: The Four Horsemen of Underperformance - Signs of Life

I'm not quite sure why signs of life in a handful of moribund stocks says one thing or another about the wider economy?

(But this seems to be good news for you, though, and I'm glad about that). :beer
by MoonOrb
Thu Mar 04, 2021 7:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Produce Delivery Services
Replies: 11
Views: 554

Re: Produce Delivery Services

We've had Imperfect Foods for about 8 months and have liked it because now we get fresh produce on Tuesdays when our normal shopping day is Saturday. Twice they have forgotten an item and once we got something we didn't ask for. We only get fruits and vegetables and the prices have been okay; we're ...
by MoonOrb
Tue Mar 02, 2021 9:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money relative to your salary makes it pointless to continue working?
Replies: 79
Views: 6378

Re: How much money relative to your salary makes it pointless to continue working?

It also matters at what point in your life you are--25x annual expenditures might be easily enough for someone who is 65, but it is not likely enough for someone who is 28. What you are asking seems to be on one hand a financial question: when is a person financially independent so that they do not...
by MoonOrb
Tue Mar 02, 2021 2:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money relative to your salary makes it pointless to continue working?
Replies: 79
Views: 6378

Re: How much money relative to your salary makes it pointless to continue working?

It also matters at what point in your life you are--25x annual expenditures might be easily enough for someone who is 65, but it is not likely enough for someone who is 28. What you are asking seems to be on one hand a financial question: when is a person financially independent so that they do not ...
by MoonOrb
Mon Mar 01, 2021 9:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor
Replies: 542
Views: 27517

Re: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor

Is it just emotion that leads someone to want less volatility in their portfolio? Isn't there the point of view that it might be better to have (I'm just making these numbers up) but, like, a 90% chance of having between $1-2M at retirement age than a 70% chance of $4M but a 30% chance at $800k or ...
by MoonOrb
Mon Mar 01, 2021 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor
Replies: 542
Views: 27517

Re: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor

Is it just emotion that leads someone to want less volatility in their portfolio? Isn't there the point of view that it might be better to have (I'm just making these numbers up) but, like, a 90% chance of having between $1-2M at retirement age than a 70% chance of $4M but a 30% chance at $800k or l...
by MoonOrb
Mon Mar 01, 2021 2:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Want to be a nomad but not sure about keeping a house
Replies: 44
Views: 4266

Re: Want to be a nomad but not sure about keeping a house

This is a serious consideration for us, too. If we go this route I have a feeling that we will sell a home and then become renters, eventually. The downsides of keeping a house seem to outweigh the upsides in this situation if that is not the house you want to live in permanently when you stop trave...
by MoonOrb
Sun Feb 28, 2021 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor
Replies: 542
Views: 27517

Re: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor

It seems like the logical end to this discussion is "if you have a mortgage, either pay it off or invest in 100% equities, then?" Basically, yes. Unless you can invest in bonds that have an expected return greater than the after-tax cost of the mortgage. Also, for VBTLX, at least, shouldn...
by MoonOrb
Sun Feb 28, 2021 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor
Replies: 542
Views: 27517

Re: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor

It seems like the logical end to this discussion is "if you have a mortgage, either pay it off or invest in 100% equities, then?"

Also, for VBTLX, at least, shouldn't I be concerned with the total return and not just the average yield? If not, why not?
by MoonOrb
Sun Feb 28, 2021 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor
Replies: 542
Views: 27517

Re: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor

Yes, but whatever the weighted average of the bonds of VBTLX has been, the return of VBTLX has slightly exceeded whatever I would have gotten by paying down my mortgage early over the last decade. How can this be possible? I'm not sure it IS possible. In January 2011, the average rate on 30-year mo...
by MoonOrb
Sat Feb 27, 2021 11:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Paying down mortgage with "bond money" and AA considerations
Replies: 35
Views: 1738

Re: Paying down mortgage with "bond money" and AA considerations

Are there any threads that explain this concept (the interaction between home equity, holding a mortgage, and asset allocation) well enough that even dummies like me can understand it? Every time it comes up it just makes zero sense to me. I can't tell if it is as banal as "pay off your mortgag...
by MoonOrb
Sat Feb 27, 2021 11:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Paying down mortgage with "bond money" and AA considerations
Replies: 35
Views: 1738

Re: Paying down mortgage with "bond money" and AA considerations

How is there such a thing as excess home equity? Is this the part that you can feed into a Coinstar machine and turn into an Amazon gift card?

Isn't home equity just home equity?
by MoonOrb
Sat Feb 27, 2021 10:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor
Replies: 542
Views: 27517

Re: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor

Regarding (a): I don't take out a 30 year mortgage at 2.75% and invest in a single bond paying 1.5%. I instead invest in VBTLX, which, because of its nature, doesn't have a fixed rate of return and may return less than the rate of return that I'm borrowing or may do better; who knows? If you invest...
by MoonOrb
Sat Feb 27, 2021 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor
Replies: 542
Views: 27517

Re: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor

I just get stuck here: liabilities don't seem to me to be "negative bonds" because (a) the types of "bonds" that I invest in are not really mirror of the type of bond (debt) that I take out and (b) the role the debt plays in my day-to-day life--financing my house--seems to be par...
by MoonOrb
Sat Feb 27, 2021 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor
Replies: 542
Views: 27517

Re: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor

Kenkat wrote: Sat Feb 27, 2021 12:42 pm If the mortgage is a negative bond, the house is a positive bond paying imputed income in the form of rent. The world is back in balance again. I however chose to keep them separate - living expense vs. investment.
Yes, this.
by MoonOrb
Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: WalletHub's 2021 Ranking of states to retire to
Replies: 20
Views: 2361

Re: WalletHub's 2021 Ranking of states to retire to

I always find lists like this fascinating and a good way to start thinking about what I value; I find them useless as a measure of what would be a good state for me to retire to. Sort of like the AFI Top 100 movie lists or any other list--no one will ever agree with it, but it's interesting as a dis...
by MoonOrb
Wed Feb 24, 2021 9:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How do you deal with timing regrets?
Replies: 79
Views: 7543

Re: How do you deal with timing regrets?

Toons wrote: Wed Feb 24, 2021 7:32 pm Regret is a waste of Time
So I don't do it
Accentuate The
Positive
BURMA SHAVE
by MoonOrb
Wed Feb 24, 2021 9:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: wiFi extenders
Replies: 39
Views: 2210

Re: wiFi extenders

Another vote for Google mesh system. Works awesome. Easy to set up.
by MoonOrb
Wed Feb 24, 2021 6:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How do you deal with timing regrets?
Replies: 79
Views: 7543

Re: How do you deal with timing regrets?

I don't really have these emotions, either--I just feel like I've committed to a reasonable plan and I have great peace in that. My attitude is that timing things are really just a matter of luck--yes, maybe I could have done better if I had changed asset allocations at certain times, or bet on cert...
by MoonOrb
Mon Feb 22, 2021 10:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: [Why is VBTLX down???]
Replies: 56
Views: 3920

Re: VBTLX???

Serious question: why do you care what it has done over the course of a month? Last year I purchased a large amount of VBTLX to bring my AA to where I wanted it. So now it's value is down and I know it is only a month but I just didn't expect it as I would in stocks. So I thought I would ask since ...
by MoonOrb
Mon Feb 22, 2021 5:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: [Why is VBTLX down???]
Replies: 56
Views: 3920

Re: VBTLX???

Serious question: why do you care what it has done over the course of a month?
by MoonOrb
Sun Feb 21, 2021 3:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: too much in 401k may be forced to quit job
Replies: 183
Views: 16917

Re: too much in 401k may be forced to quit job

This is missing too much critical context for anyone to give you worthwhile advice here, except to say: no, it's not likely anyone else here has come across this because (a) whatever missing details are here make this situation unique to you and/or (b) this is deeply weird. Everything about this is ...
by MoonOrb
Sun Feb 21, 2021 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is too much saving a zero sum game ?
Replies: 72
Views: 7380

Re: Is too much saving a zero sum game ?

It seems like it might be more accurate to say that there is a point at which investing and saving reaches some point of diminishing returns and there would be a greater societal benefit to transferring funds to those with greater need instead of continuing to save and invest. I don't agree that it ...
by MoonOrb
Sun Feb 21, 2021 11:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cash: a survey
Replies: 95
Views: 6443

Re: Cash: a survey

Leif wrote: Sat Feb 20, 2021 4:58 pm So, OP, what are your numbers?
1. Around 4.5% right now
2. This is about 16 months of average monthly expenses
3. Accumulating right now

Thanks for the responses, everyone.
by MoonOrb
Sat Feb 20, 2021 3:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cash: a survey
Replies: 95
Views: 6443

Re: Cash: a survey

What is cash?

Define how you want to. I would define it as immediately liquid funds in checking, savings, and money market accounts. A short-term CD could count, I guess. But rather than debate "what is cash", I say just go ahead and answer using your own definition.
by MoonOrb
Sat Feb 20, 2021 2:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cash: a survey
Replies: 95
Views: 6443

Cash: a survey

Hi. I'm curious how much cash other folks have. I've kept more on hand this year as the possibility of job loss has increased; I had kept it low previously. But in any case, I'm trying to do a little calibration and I'm wondering what other people do. 1. How much cash do you have expressed as a perc...
by MoonOrb
Sat Feb 20, 2021 2:07 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Why A Good Boglehead Must Leave The Bogleheads Forum
Replies: 180
Views: 19344

Re: Why A Good Boglehead Must Leave The Bogleheads Forum

OP: Maybe you've gotten all you've needed out of this place--that's wonderful! If seeing threads about active investing has a negative impact on you, it shows good self-awareness that you realize that. Best of luck to you and thanks for sharing your perspective.
by MoonOrb
Fri Feb 19, 2021 1:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 31yo contemplating early retirement
Replies: 142
Views: 12705

Re: 31yo contemplating early retirement

What's your plan for when the stocks you've picked plummet?
by MoonOrb
Wed Feb 17, 2021 11:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds vs mortgage payoff
Replies: 122
Views: 8333

Re: Bonds vs mortgage payoff

I'm just confused why it is that it's presumed bonds don't have a return? They have a return that is historically less than equities but greater (at least in my case, maybe I'm lucky?) than whatever I'm paying in mortgage interest. Are you aware that the returns from bonds are correlated inversely ...
by MoonOrb
Sat Feb 13, 2021 6:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds vs mortgage payoff
Replies: 122
Views: 8333

Re: Bonds vs mortgage payoff

Also, maybe some of my curiosity about this comes from my own experience of having a good mortgage rate. If I were in the predicament of having a mortgage rate so high I thought that VBLTX couldn't compete with it, I'd simply refinance, I suppose. Maybe that's not a possibility for others.
by MoonOrb
Sat Feb 13, 2021 6:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds vs mortgage payoff
Replies: 122
Views: 8333

Re: Bonds vs mortgage payoff

I'm just confused why it is that it's presumed bonds don't have a return? They have a return that is historically less than equities but greater (at least in my case, maybe I'm lucky?) than whatever I'm paying in mortgage interest. Are you aware that the returns from bonds are correlated inversely ...
by MoonOrb
Sat Feb 13, 2021 5:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds vs mortgage payoff
Replies: 122
Views: 8333

Re: Bonds vs mortgage payoff

Why do you think you won't do better in a bond fund than if you pay down your mortgage? I don't know if my experience has been unique but I have come out ahead being in VBTLX instead of paying down my mortgage. To somewhat paraphrase and reframe a poster upthread, in my case it has been a little bit...
by MoonOrb
Fri Feb 12, 2021 5:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Amazon Firestick vs. Roku
Replies: 72
Views: 4406

Re: Amazon Firestick vs. Roku

I have both and have recurring frustrations with Firesticks that I've not had with Roku. I view Roku as the superior product.
by MoonOrb
Sun Feb 07, 2021 12:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do you plan for retirement if all the sims are wrong?
Replies: 123
Views: 8078

Re: How do you plan for retirement if all the sims are wrong?

Stay in very good health. Stay employable in case you need to keep working. Live beneath your means. Be open minded about how to enjoy life in retirement if it's not as robust as you imagined it might be. Meditate.
by MoonOrb
Sat Feb 06, 2021 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Power of Working Longer
Replies: 531
Views: 44253

Re: The Power of Working Longer

It seems like it need not be a binary choice. You can enjoy life now and enjoy life in retirement. The condition of "not working" is not essential to enjoying life. If it were, none of us could enjoy our lives until we retired. This only matters at the extremes: if you are unable to find a...
by MoonOrb
Fri Feb 05, 2021 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Power of Working Longer
Replies: 531
Views: 44253

Re: The Power of Working Longer

This seems like good advice for a particular set of people: people who when they reach an age they have always thought of as their retirement age are just on the border of whether retiring today will provide sufficient security for the rest of their lives. I think people are on a continuum with rega...
by MoonOrb
Sat Jan 30, 2021 2:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I still believe in “getting rich slowly”
Replies: 91
Views: 8856

Re: I still believe in “getting rich slowly”

I'm not really trying to get rich, I just want to be financially secure and maybe have a comfortable retirement. I don't mind working. I'm not in a rush for anything. Getting rich quickly would honestly be more trouble than it's worth. None of my friends and family know we have the size portfolio we...
by MoonOrb
Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 4587
Views: 235157

Re: GameStop GME: anyone joining?

This is like watching a financial game of Jenga.
by MoonOrb
Sun Jan 24, 2021 2:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Still buying Bonds?
Replies: 68
Views: 7173

Re: Still buying Bonds?

Yes, I still buy TBM and rebalance occasionally. I've had a plan for years now and I just keep sticking to the plan. I don't try to guess what is going to happen.
by MoonOrb
Sun Jan 24, 2021 12:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Town A vs Town B
Replies: 75
Views: 5281

Re: Town A vs Town B

It sounds to me like the difference in opportunity between the towns is really marginal and it probably doesn't make that much difference at all, really, so pick where you feel happiest waking up every morning.
by MoonOrb
Sat Jan 23, 2021 11:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: A lot of bubble talk lately...how would you invest?
Replies: 21
Views: 3260

Re: A lot of bubble talk lately...how would you invest?

Same way I always do. If I knew what market was going to pop and when it was going to pop I'd buy put options I guess? But I know neither of those things, so I just stick with my plan. This is like, before enlightenment chop wood carry water. After enlightenment, chop wood carry water.
by MoonOrb
Sat Jan 23, 2021 7:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Now that I'm a homeowner, how do I track my net-worth in an Excel document?
Replies: 54
Views: 4655

Re: Now that I'm a homeowner, how do I track my net-worth in an Excel document?

I use the Zillow "low" value for an estimated value of my home. Tracking home equity as a part of net worth is a matter of minor interest to me so I don't really sweat it: one line for the Zillow low value, one line for the current mortgage balance.