Search found 14455 matches

by nedsaid
Sun Apr 18, 2021 1:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Seeking advice on an investment that cannot be liquidated.
Replies: 43
Views: 3664

Re: Seeking advice on an investment that cannot be liquidated.

Another thing that you learn is that people hear what they want to hear. Many years ago, a Tax client asked me to do a projection of of their taxes for the next year. What I said was that if everything stayed the same from this year to the next that the client should get a tax refund for a thousand ...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 18, 2021 1:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Seeking advice on an investment that cannot be liquidated.
Replies: 43
Views: 3664

Re: Seeking advice on an investment that cannot be liquidated.

A few things. First, sale of non-Traded REITs is regulated and to buy them you must meet certain net worth and income criteria. There are limits to how much of one's net worth can be tied up in these. Second, there is a fair amount of compliance paperwork that has to be processed and disclosures mad...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 18, 2021 11:14 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: thinking about adding some REIT
Replies: 103
Views: 5538

Re: thinking about adding some REIT

I view commodities more as inflation insurance than as an investment. Yes, they have a long term near zero real return. From 1900-2018, real returns from commodities were 0.39%. That is why I don't invest directly in commodities. I have over the years invested in natural resource stocks that produc...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 18, 2021 10:36 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: thinking about adding some REIT
Replies: 103
Views: 5538

Re: thinking about adding some REIT

What I would tell newer investors is not to include these in your portfolios unless you are an inflation fanatic like I am. I still remember the 1970's. I have gone from being very enthusiastic about REITs to being neutral on them. REITs are also a way of stretching for yield but you assume additio...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 18, 2021 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value etf’s that actually contain value?
Replies: 42
Views: 2555

Re: Value etf’s that actually contain value?

I will say from experience that deep value just didn't seem to work nearly as well as buying quality companies temporarily out of favor or having temporary problems. I bought cheap stocks like Ford, St. Joe Paper, Gilead Sciences, and others and somehow they just didn't work out. The combination of...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 18, 2021 12:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How should I invest in my 401k account
Replies: 20
Views: 1648

Re: How should I invest in my 401k account

Thanks everyone for the advice :D I've updated the post with the ER of each fund. I can't seem to find the ticket symbols for those funds, though. I think I'll go with either the BlackRock Target Date Fund 2065 (ER 0.06%), or with the S&P500 and PIMCO bond fund. An expense ratio of .06% for a b...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 18, 2021 12:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: EM has concentrated risk in china/taiwan
Replies: 33
Views: 2091

Re: EM has concentrated risk in china/taiwan

Not really, I am usually going with the world market cap rate, but have slightly overweighted EM, as I think that these economies have a large proportion of the world's population and probably have a higher growth rate long term. I really don't worry about the "concentrated" risk in the U...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 18, 2021 12:06 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: thinking about adding some REIT
Replies: 103
Views: 5538

Re: thinking about adding some REIT

I still own my REITs though I have trimmed them down in recent years. At one time, REITs offered low correlation with the rest of the Stock Market with slightly higher returns, they were the perfect diversifier. Now the research would tell you that about all you would get with REITs is added volatil...
by nedsaid
Sat Apr 17, 2021 11:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Take risk on equity side”
Replies: 37
Views: 2914

Re: “Take risk on equity side”

I am of the opinion that one can take risk on the Fixed Income side of the portfolio as long as the great bulk of the portfolio is in Intermediate Term and Investment Grade Bonds. I have liked TIPS for a long time because they protect against unexpected inflation. I think mixing in Corporate Bonds w...
by nedsaid
Sat Apr 17, 2021 11:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value etf’s that actually contain value?
Replies: 42
Views: 2555

Re: Value etf’s that actually contain value?

Another comment regarding financial metrics, keep in mind that the Covid-19 pandemic has greatly affected the economy and shorter term a lot of numbers got distorted, particularly earnings. What I would say is to keep watching the numbers and take a longer view, lots of firms took earnings hits and...
by nedsaid
Sat Apr 17, 2021 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value etf’s that actually contain value?
Replies: 42
Views: 2555

Re: Value etf’s that actually contain value?

Another comment regarding financial metrics, keep in mind that the Covid-19 pandemic has greatly affected the economy and shorter term a lot of numbers got distorted, particularly earnings. What I would say is to keep watching the numbers and take a longer view, lots of firms took earnings hits and ...
by nedsaid
Sat Apr 17, 2021 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value etf’s that actually contain value?
Replies: 42
Views: 2555

Re: Value etf’s that actually contain value?

The top holdings of the Vanguard Value Index (Large Caps) are stocks that I would love to own individually. How are Berkshire Hathaway, JP Morgan Chase, Johnson & Johnson, United Health, Proctor & Gamble, and Bank of America bad companies? Berkshire Hathaway has always traded at a premium, ...
by nedsaid
Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value etf’s that actually contain value?
Replies: 42
Views: 2555

Re: Value etf’s that actually contain value?

If I’ve missed other threads on this, feel free to re-direct me to those threads! I’ve been looking at various value etf’s for lcv, scv, and international value. The problem that I’m seeing is that many of the holdings aren’t value stocks, they’re just bad companies that are cheap for a reason. Are...
by nedsaid
Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value etf’s that actually contain value?
Replies: 42
Views: 2555

Re: Value etf’s that actually contain value?

What I will say is that the correct Value strategy is a combination of Value and Quality/Profitability and not Deep Value. Fine Cuban Cigars purchased when they go on sale vs. picking up cigar butts for a last few puffs. Charley Munger has it right that you want to buy wide moat companies and quali...
by nedsaid
Sat Apr 17, 2021 12:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Beginning to evaluate the holdings of Vanguard Target Retirement Funds
Replies: 138
Views: 8358

Re: Beginning to evaluate the holdings of Vanguard Target Retirement Funds

I suppose the most alarming thing is how high International equities comprise total equity exposure. I've been comfortable with International comprising 15-25% of total equity exposure - but International comprises approximately 41% of equities in the Target 2025 fund. That's out of my comfort zone...
by nedsaid
Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value etf’s that actually contain value?
Replies: 42
Views: 2555

Re: Value etf’s that actually contain value?

If I’ve missed other threads on this, feel free to re-direct me to those threads! I’ve been looking at various value etf’s for lcv, scv, and international value. The problem that I’m seeing is that many of the holdings aren’t value stocks, they’re just bad companies that are cheap for a reason. Are...
by nedsaid
Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14647
Views: 1125530

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Mixed market. Dow and S&P 500 are up and the Nazz is down.
by nedsaid
Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There’s a single New Jersey deli doing $35,000 in sales valued at $100 million in the stock market
Replies: 60
Views: 6145

Re: There’s a single New Jersey deli doing $35,000 in sales valued at $100 million in the stock market

Hedge fund manager David Einhorn warned of dangers for retail investors that he sees in the market, and one of his main examples was a tiny New Jersey deli with a market capitalization of more than $100 million. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/there-s-a-single-new-jersey-deli-doing-35-000...
by nedsaid
Fri Apr 16, 2021 9:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why Buy TIPS Bonds Now?
Replies: 36
Views: 3790

Re: Why Buy TIPS Bonds Now?

Not sure why folks would buy TIPS with their current negative yields when the current I Bonds have a 0% fixed rate. That means that I Bonds purchased prior to the end of this month will yield 1.68% for the first six months and then the variable rate will jump to 3.54% for the second six months. Or,...
by nedsaid
Fri Apr 16, 2021 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value strategies
Replies: 24
Views: 1729

Re: Value strategies

There is currently no sure shortcut to getting rich apart from the same standard methods that have always worked in the past given sufficient patience. Valuations are definitely stretched, absurd in some areas, but they have been stretched by historical standards for more than a decade. These overb...
by nedsaid
Thu Apr 15, 2021 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Does Anyone Listen To Paul Merriman?
Replies: 87
Views: 8252

Re: Why Does Anyone Listen To Paul Merriman?

I am grateful to Paul for what he and his organization have taught me. I had the pleasure of attending two seminars led by Tom Cock, these seminars introduced me to the academic research, DFA, Small-Value tilting. True to their word, I got a free one hour consultation with one of their Financial Adv...
by nedsaid
Mon Apr 12, 2021 12:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Buy and Hold No More” says A16Z
Replies: 90
Views: 9103

Re: “Buy and Hold No More” says A16Z

Yes, this is definitely possible. Not all investors can access, many of these require access through an advisor and you often have to be an accredited investor. I have invested in REIT funds for years and owned a couple of Timber REITs that trade publicly. I have never owned more illiquid investmen...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 11, 2021 11:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Buy and Hold No More” says A16Z
Replies: 90
Views: 9103

Re: “Buy and Hold No More” says A16Z

What else is there to invest in? I don't want to run a business and I don't want to manage rentals. I could do private REITs and structured notes and the like through an Advisor but there are pitfalls to that as well. I could buy Certificates of Deposit at the local bank but they also pay very litt...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 11, 2021 11:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Latest Thoughts from Larry Swedroe
Replies: 121
Views: 18451

Re: Latest Thoughts from Larry Swedroe

Bad behavior, cognitive decline, and protection from greedy elder abuse are huge issues. Each on its own can dominate a reasonable advisor fee. It’s important to define one’s realistic personal investing goals and devise a plan that achieves them. Doing that is way more important than simply maximi...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 11, 2021 11:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 133
Views: 6750

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

As I understand it, reinsurance companies sell slices of their reinsurance portfolio with contracts that would essentially be de facto actuarial risk swaps. There is unlikely to be much of a secondary market for these, so this depends on the interval structure functioning as expected. The asymmetry...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 11, 2021 11:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Buy and Hold No More” says A16Z
Replies: 90
Views: 9103

Re: “Buy and Hold No More” says A16Z

For example, bonds have very low yields but there still is not a better alternative to diversify away the volatility of stocks. Must we invest in stocks and bonds? Our stock/bond portfolio only represents our liquid investments. We don't put all of our working investment capital into liquid investm...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 11, 2021 11:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Latest Thoughts from Larry Swedroe
Replies: 121
Views: 18451

Re: Latest Thoughts from Larry Swedroe

This article reinforced my thinking regarding having someone else make my investment decisions. I have turned over about 30% of my retirement assets to American Century Private Client Group to see if I like this process. It seemed that older investors with larger balances were more prone to market ...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 11, 2021 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Latest Thoughts from Larry Swedroe
Replies: 121
Views: 18451

Re: Latest Thoughts from Larry Swedroe

Larry Swedroe @larryswedroe Apr 9 My latest Evidence Based Investor article examines the findings on the performance of investors in 401(k) plans during the COVID-19 bear market. Some surprising (older, more experienced investors did worse) and not surprising findings. A couple nuggets from Larry's...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 11, 2021 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 133
Views: 6750

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

I would like more information about this. Who actually managed the fund and did they use actuaries? It would seem to me that properly valuing reinsurance contracts would be a big part of the business and it is hard for me to believe that Stone Ridge left this out. Sort of like running an actively m...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 11, 2021 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Latest Thoughts from Larry Swedroe
Replies: 121
Views: 18451

Re: Latest Thoughts from Larry Swedroe

Larry Swedroe @larryswedroe Mar 23 My latest Evidence Based Investor article reviews the research on the relationship between investment wisdom and age. There’s an old adage that with age comes wisdom. But do we tend to become better investors as we age? Unfortunately, research has found that, in g...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 11, 2021 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Latest Thoughts from Larry Swedroe
Replies: 121
Views: 18451

Re: Latest Thoughts from Larry Swedroe

Larry Swedroe @larryswedroe Apr 9 My latest Evidence Based Investor article examines the findings on the performance of investors in 401(k) plans during the COVID-19 bear market. Some surprising (older, more experienced investors did worse) and not surprising findings. A couple nuggets from Larry's...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 11, 2021 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Buy and Hold No More” says A16Z
Replies: 90
Views: 9103

Re: “Buy and Hold No More” says A16Z

I think its an interesting discussion. I think we have to look at each asset class and maybe adjust for the current world. I dont know if its a great idea to think we should hold the same assets/diversify in the same way people did 20-50 years ago. I'm also of a mindset of pure growth, and I also h...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 11, 2021 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Buy and Hold No More” says A16Z
Replies: 90
Views: 9103

Re: “Buy and Hold No More” says A16Z

[...] The next prolonged bear market will bring us to Zero. [...] the three mattress portfolio. [...] the least dirty shirt in the laundry hamper. [...] hahaha Thanks for the hearty laugh. :beer You should definitely publish the book. Maybe it could be a children's book: "Dirty Shirty and the ...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 11, 2021 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Buy and Hold No More” says A16Z
Replies: 90
Views: 9103

Re: “Buy and Hold No More” says A16Z

Boglehead portfolios used to include TIPS and REITs. Both have been largely abandoned. Now we are abandoning International. In the case of REITs, I think the de-throning was appropriate, given that studies have since shown it's not a distinct asset class, but, rather, a sector of stocks. TIPS and i...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Buy and Hold No More” says A16Z
Replies: 90
Views: 9103

Re: “Buy and Hold No More” says A16Z

I meant to add to my post above, I’m also thinking of moving international index money into VTI/VUG/BTC Which for a noble head seems counterintuitive as US seems really over valued and vxus isn’t and hasn’t performed for crap compared to US for longer than I’ve been investing, and I don’t know if p...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 11, 2021 10:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Deciding it it's worth it to buy long-term individual stocks
Replies: 57
Views: 5391

Re: Deciding it it's worth it to buy long-term individual stocks

Nearly all of investments are in index funds. I have a tiny # of safe long term holds like AAPL. Nothing high risk. Is it even worth it to continue buying shares in AAPL, for example? I feel as though the $ might be better spent just continuing with whole market funds and taking advantage of compou...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 11, 2021 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Buy and Hold No More” says A16Z
Replies: 90
Views: 9103

Re: “Buy and Hold No More” says A16Z

I certainly don't believe in buy and hold when it comes to TBM. 3 fund portfolio looks outdated to me given a post-QE world. Making a good income as a lender via "safe" fixed income instruments is dead; there is simply too much money in the world now to reward risk-free capital. The 21st ...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 11, 2021 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 133
Views: 6750

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

...But 3 years is very short... Indeed it is. But so is the life span of the average Stone Ridge fund. In about seven years, they have introduced a total of nine funds (reinsurance, US variance, international variance, (global?) variance, alternative lending, longevity, hedged equity, multi-strateg...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 11, 2021 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 133
Views: 6750

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

Although it is difficult to distinguish unlucky outcomes from mispricing of actuarial risk with an insurance product, it would not a surprise to me that a fund manager buying slices of reinsurance portfolios but not employing an actuarial staff to value the investments may well have overpaid for th...
by nedsaid
Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14647
Views: 1125530

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

abuss368 wrote: Thu Apr 08, 2021 11:19 pm Backing up my truck tomorrow.

Tony
Is your transmission stuck in reverse? :wink:
by nedsaid
Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 133
Views: 6750

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

I posted above the last available performance information on all 4 funds, the information is from Bloomberg. You could do a 3 year chart as of early February 2021 based on my data. It wouldn't be perfect but it would give you an idea. I would be interested in seeing the results of your efforts. I t...
by nedsaid
Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 133
Views: 6750

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

AVRPX - Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund 3 Month Return 1.71% YTD Return 0.70% 1 Year Return -21.17% 3 Year Return -10.78% 5 Year Return -3.02% This isn't the stuff that would make me want to jump out of an office building window. The point is that it was not delivering on its purpo...
by nedsaid
Fri Apr 09, 2021 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 133
Views: 6750

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

Markets can be very cruel and times of extreme volatility, like March 2020, are times when unique risks show up. Every asset class I am aware of has its own unique risk that rarely occur but are pretty painful when they happen. I have often said that markets have a way of doing the one thing that yo...
by nedsaid
Thu Apr 08, 2021 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 133
Views: 6750

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

Apparently lots of investors pulled out at one of the interval liquidation points. It was a levered portfolio, so this was like a big margin call. Residual investors and their assets were merged into another Stoneridge fund. Wasn't this an interval fund? If so, this theory being kicked around isn't...
by nedsaid
Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 133
Views: 6750

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

Apparently lots of investors pulled out at one of the interval liquidation points. It was a levered portfolio, so this was like a big margin call. Residual investors and their assets were merged into another Stoneridge fund. Wasn't this an interval fund? If so, this theory being kicked around isn't...
by nedsaid
Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 133
Views: 6750

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

I think bottom line, the Alts were a disappointment but not a disaster. When investment funds are shutdown, they tend to just disappear without much of a trace. They typically disappear from the provider web site and often disappear from investment return databases and datasets so that they stop sh...
by nedsaid
Tue Apr 06, 2021 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 133
Views: 6750

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

Yes. Certainly, when I bought the fund I was informed that was a risk. More generally, we all appreciate the tenet that correlations go to 1 in a crisis. We usually see the benefits of diversification in a more subtle fashion during calmer times. I don’t think I’m spinning or revising. Now I'm conf...
by nedsaid
Mon Apr 05, 2021 8:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 133
Views: 6750

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

Yes. Certainly, when I bought the fund I was informed that was a risk. More generally, we all appreciate the tenet that correlations go to 1 in a crisis. We usually see the benefits of diversification in a more subtle fashion during calmer times. I don’t think I’m spinning or revising. Really impor...
by nedsaid
Mon Apr 05, 2021 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 133
Views: 6750

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

ETFs and Mutual Funds have this problem as well. Every asset class has its unique and hidden risks. How do ETFs have this problem? There was a thread on this topic regarding Bond ETFs. Essentially a mismatch between the liquidity of the ETFs themselves and the liquidity of the individual bonds with...
by nedsaid
Mon Apr 05, 2021 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 133
Views: 6750

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

Has anybody compiled an actual growth chart of what would have happened to $10,000 invested 25% each in QSPIX, AVRPX, LENDX, and SRRIX, starting from the time Larry Swedroe first mentioned this particular allocation? I've tried from time to time but it's complicated due to the Stone Ridge funds' qu...