Search found 2952 matches

by Caduceus
Sat Apr 17, 2021 2:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to locate a photograph on the internet?
Replies: 17
Views: 1722

Re: How to locate a photograph on the internet?

Thank you for the suggestion. Tineye didn't work either. I've experimented with uploading photos for which I know the source (from Flicker or Pinterest) on both Google and Tineye, and they couldn't isolate the source either. :(
by Caduceus
Sat Apr 17, 2021 2:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to locate a photograph on the internet?
Replies: 17
Views: 1722

How to locate a photograph on the internet?

A few days ago, a blog that I follow listed a vintage photograph that, amazingly enough, had both of my grandparents in it. The problem is that this writer simply took the photograph off the internet without attributing the source. All she can tell me is that "I used Google search." I've t...
by Caduceus
Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There’s a single New Jersey deli doing $35,000 in sales valued at $100 million in the stock market
Replies: 69
Views: 7973

Re: There’s a single New Jersey deli doing $35,000 in sales valued at $100 million in the stock market

I think David Einhorn is probably right, but he has a history of making really terrible timing calls. He's consistently got the underlying thesis right but screwed it up anyway. He's probably right about Tesla, but why he thought selling short Tesla was a responsible thing to do for his shareholders...
by Caduceus
Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future Market Expectations
Replies: 33
Views: 2051

Re: Future Market Expectations

I find this period of financial history quite fascinating because you can see the rise (and clash) of two competing narratives about the future of the stock market. On one side: you have the story that valuations across the board are extremely expensive, using metrics like P/E ratios, CAPE, or the ...
by Caduceus
Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future Market Expectations
Replies: 33
Views: 2051

Re: Future Market Expectations

I find this period of financial history quite fascinating because you can see the rise (and clash) of two competing narratives about the future of the stock market. On one side: you have the story that valuations across the board are extremely expensive, using metrics like P/E ratios, CAPE, or the &...
by Caduceus
Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future Market Expectations
Replies: 33
Views: 2051

Re: Future Market Expectations

I don't know, but I will venture that it won't be as good at the last ten years. If we enter an era of gradually rising interest rates, I think there's a good chance that the stock market will go nowhere. There was a fascinating article by Buffett about the 17-year cycle prior to the 1980s where ris...
by Caduceus
Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How do you deal with timing regrets?
Replies: 79
Views: 7380

Re: How do you deal with timing regrets?

OK, this has gone far worse than I expected. The last batch of options that I sold has now gone up in value by $125,000. I converted the options into actual stock, which have gone up only $41,000. So, that's a missing $84,000 in less than a few weeks due to ridiculously bad sales timing. I hate it. ...
by Caduceus
Fri Mar 26, 2021 10:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to calculate interest on suspended 401k loan?
Replies: 2
Views: 285

Re: How to calculate interest on suspended 401k loan?

Unfortunately, I don't think it is quite so straightforward. I do not know if the method you propose will be alright, because although it seems reasonable enough on the surface, you're not making substantially level payments, which the IRS requires. Take a look at Notice 2020-50, which establishes s...
by Caduceus
Thu Mar 25, 2021 12:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which deadlines have been extended till May 17th?
Replies: 9
Views: 1223

Re: Which deadlines have been extended till May 17th?

If the tax deadline is extended, does that mean the tax extension deadline is extended as well, or does that remain the same?
by Caduceus
Wed Mar 24, 2021 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CNBC ...why investors should never try to time the stock market
Replies: 22
Views: 3556

Re: CNBC ...why investors should never try to time the stock market

I've heard a version of this many times and I don't quite understand what it means to "miss the best days." How is the calculation done? Does "missing the best days" mean buying in after an up day? So, for example, you sell your stock at $100 by market timing, but the stock goes ...
by Caduceus
Wed Mar 24, 2021 6:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Approved for Personal Loan in 15 minutes
Replies: 12
Views: 1108

Re: Approved for Personal Loan in 15 minutes

If you got a loan that big, at that rate, unsecured, I'd imagine you have great credit and significant assets with the CU. At some point underwriting is just a rubric, and you ticked enough boxes it was a very easy call for them. I wouldn't take this to mean they're throwing money around. I actuall...
by Caduceus
Wed Mar 24, 2021 5:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The house of your dreams at what cost?
Replies: 10
Views: 1276

Re: The house of your dreams at what cost?

That's like an immediate 30% return on your $50,000.
by Caduceus
Wed Mar 24, 2021 5:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Approved for Personal Loan in 15 minutes
Replies: 12
Views: 1108

Re: Approved for Personal Loan in 15 minutes

Lightstream. $50k loan in an hour with about a 1 minute form filled out. I think it was 2.69%. Would have been in my account that afternoon if I had taken it. Didn't need the money in the end and it expired in 30 days. I agree, it's crazy. Or scary - they already know everything they need to know a...
by Caduceus
Wed Mar 24, 2021 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Almost Researched a Stock
Replies: 17
Views: 2168

Re: I Almost Researched a Stock

Researching a stock doesn't mean reading internet posts about it or browsing Seeking Alpha or taking a glance at financial ratios, etc. Even if you actually did it the right way, taking the time to do a deep dive into the industry, reading the financial statements and really understanding everything...
by Caduceus
Wed Mar 24, 2021 5:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: ADRs and taxes
Replies: 6
Views: 439

Re: ADRs and taxes

The dividend withholding, if any, is done at source (meaning, by the country in which the firm is actually domiciled in). The broker will issue a tax form showing how much was withheld and then when you file US taxes you can use it to reduce your US tax. It's not going to be possible to describe all...
by Caduceus
Wed Mar 24, 2021 5:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Approved for Personal Loan in 15 minutes
Replies: 12
Views: 1108

Approved for Personal Loan in 15 minutes

I've never had to take a personal loan until today. I needed $30,000 for just 15 days and when I called in to my credit union, I got approved immediately with no income verification, questions about assets, or anything like that. The money is apparently going to be deposited into my bank account wit...
by Caduceus
Tue Mar 23, 2021 8:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Stock Replacement Strategy
Replies: 0
Views: 262

Stock Replacement Strategy

I am considering using deep in the money LEAPs call options to replace my stock holdings and to hold a combination of cash + options instead of stock itself. I thought of this because of two inter-connected reasons: I think the stock market is likely in a bubble, but also that it's very unlikely I w...
by Caduceus
Tue Mar 23, 2021 6:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Account restricted due to 3 good faith violation
Replies: 31
Views: 5044

Re: Account restricted due to 3 good faith violation

Out of curiosity, why don't brokers just prevent good faith violations from happening? When I buy stocks with unsettled funds, the alert will pop up warning me that I cannot sell the stocks I'm buying before they settle, so why doesn't the broker just restrict sales of those shares until when they s...
by Caduceus
Tue Mar 23, 2021 6:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need career suggestions for adult son
Replies: 72
Views: 6652

Re: Need career suggestions for adult son

Is your "protection" stopping him from moving on? Maybe it would help for you to just let him alone and make it clear - gently - that he's an adult and he must find his own way. Sometimes people can get stuck if they know they have something to fall back on. Don't be that safety net. I don...
by Caduceus
Tue Mar 23, 2021 6:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Implications of high savings rates outside of the United States
Replies: 21
Views: 2212

Re: Implications of high savings rates outside of the United States

It's too simplistic to compare savings rates like this. Some of the countries listed in the article have compulsory savings vehicles that can be drawn for housing payments or that are restricted in the types of investments that can be made (e.g. only "safe" investments that can grow slowly...
by Caduceus
Mon Mar 22, 2021 6:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dealing with an extremely weird seller
Replies: 34
Views: 3867

Re: Dealing with an extremely weird seller

theplayer11 wrote: Mon Mar 22, 2021 5:45 pm so the guy has a shop, but doesn't price anything?
Yes, absolutely nothing is priced. Not a single item has a price tag or label on it. That's what is frustrating.
by Caduceus
Mon Mar 22, 2021 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why can't we have another 20 years of bull market?
Replies: 224
Views: 17980

Re: Why can't we have another 20 years of bull market?

There's also a good reason to think that the P/E multiple will fall if interest rates go up, since investors will demand a higher return from all assets, including stocks, so that's one argument against another 20 years of a bull market. Yes, and this is logical. But.... A few things make valuation...
by Caduceus
Mon Mar 22, 2021 2:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dealing with an extremely weird seller
Replies: 34
Views: 3867

Re: Dealing with an extremely weird seller

I have a friend who dabbles in a different type of collectible who told me a similar story. Things were "for sale" but actually completing a sale was a chore. The guy would say he's not sure he's going to sell that thing, or he didn't know how much he wanted, or he would have to check and...
by Caduceus
Mon Mar 22, 2021 2:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dealing with an extremely weird seller
Replies: 34
Views: 3867

Re: Dealing with an extremely weird seller

Appreciate the perspectives - I've learned a lot and will consider a different approach. I did not interpret the $800 offer in as charitable a light. I thought it was just a way to feign price-insensitivity to get an upper hand in future negotiations. But some of your interpretations would make more...
by Caduceus
Mon Mar 22, 2021 11:51 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much are your monthly total subscriptions?
Replies: 37
Views: 1655

Re: How much are your monthly total subscriptions?

Think you are going about this the wrong way. What type of subscription(s) do you want? For example, we get Netflix, Pandora and the NYTimes. We love them all, but for different purposes. We spend about $1,500/yr on all our subscriptions. Wow ... that's quite a bit more than I'd imagined would be p...
by Caduceus
Mon Mar 22, 2021 11:45 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cleaning up aunt's URBAN condo
Replies: 34
Views: 2470

Re: Cleaning up aunt's URBAN condo

You should be absolutely sure there aren't things of value. My late grandmother used to hide things. We found money in strange places, antique gold rings, priceless nearly century-old black and white photos ... in the unlikeliest places. Haven't you heard the story about the junk collector who went ...
by Caduceus
Mon Mar 22, 2021 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why can't we have another 20 years of bull market?
Replies: 224
Views: 17980

Re: Why can't we have another 20 years of bull market?

You can if the underlying businesses themselves improve significantly. Stocks are fractional interests in real businesses, and over long periods of time, short of a dramatic expansion in the multiple (e.g. if the P/E multiple in 20 years rises to 50 from its current 35, which is unlikely), you will ...
by Caduceus
Mon Mar 22, 2021 11:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much are your monthly total subscriptions?
Replies: 37
Views: 1655

How much are your monthly total subscriptions?

I am curious how much you are paying for monthly subscriptions a month in total for media entertainment. Between Youtube, Netflix, Disney, Spotify, etc. and all that ... would it be quite a fair bit of money? We don't have any subscriptions currently and am trying to figure out just one service to s...
by Caduceus
Mon Mar 22, 2021 11:11 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Safety of logging in to retirement account using unsecure wifi?
Replies: 33
Views: 3043

Re: Safety of logging in to retirement account using unsecure wifi?

If you are worried, maybe you could perform the transactions via phone? I know brokers these days seem to track the number you are calling from, so with a few security questions you should be able to do everything you need to without having to type in your password on a public computer or over publi...
by Caduceus
Mon Mar 22, 2021 11:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do brokers track or report wash sales in IRA?
Replies: 8
Views: 598

Re: Do brokers track or report wash sales in IRA?

If there are tax consequences to the transaction I described (e.g. if I sell shares in an IRA for a loss, and then buy back identical shares in a taxable account within 30 days) There are no tax consequences to that sequence of transactions, what you describe is not a wash sale. (Since there's no l...
by Caduceus
Mon Mar 22, 2021 10:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dealing with an extremely weird seller
Replies: 34
Views: 3867

Re: Dealing with an extremely weird seller

I've tried some of the things forum members are suggesting, to no avail. I've made counter-offers toward the low end, and that invited no response. I wasn't going to up my own offer, so we never transacted on that item. It still remains unsold. He's hesitant even when I meet his price. There was onc...
by Caduceus
Mon Mar 22, 2021 8:02 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dealing with an extremely weird seller
Replies: 34
Views: 3867

Dealing with an extremely weird seller

I am a collector of rare books and documents and I've been having a lot of trouble with an old man who's very difficult to deal with. He runs a tiny shop filled to the brim with Very Old Stuff, half of which is junk, and the other half of which are really quite interesting. The problem is ... when I...
by Caduceus
Fri Mar 19, 2021 12:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do brokers track or report wash sales in IRA?
Replies: 8
Views: 598

Re: Do brokers track or report wash sales in IRA?

No, because if done inside your IRA it is not a wash sale. My brokers track individual lots and their realized gains and losses for each of my accounts including IRAs and 401(k), but all separately. Thanks, Livesoft. So to make sure I understand correctly. The broker won't report the transaction I ...
by Caduceus
Fri Mar 19, 2021 12:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best way to manage savings while taking student loans?
Replies: 4
Views: 422

Re: Best way to manage savings while taking student loans?

I think leaving it in savings account is fine. The best financial return you are going to get is completing your course as soon as possible. For example, if you can graduate in 1 year instead of 1.5 for the undergrad, and in 2 instead of 3 for the masters. If it means spending a little more so you c...
by Caduceus
Fri Mar 19, 2021 12:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do brokers track or report wash sales in IRA?
Replies: 8
Views: 598

Do brokers track or report wash sales in IRA?

If I sell a stock that I bought at $11 for $10, incurring a loss of $1, and then buy it back the next day for $10, is this a wash sale that's tracked by my broker if done inside an IRA? I know that wash sales can have consequences across my portfolio across my various investment accounts, so what's ...
by Caduceus
Thu Mar 18, 2021 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing at the very top in 2000 has still made one 7% a year over the past 21 years
Replies: 148
Views: 12335

Re: Investing at the very top in 2000 has still made one 7% a year over the past 21 years

i.e. maybe you got 7% / yr over the past 21 years, including crashes, but you may be disappointed if you're planning that to repeat into the next 10 years I feel terrible that I am so bad at communicating that anyone thought that is what I was saying. All I was trying to tell people is that you did...
by Caduceus
Thu Mar 18, 2021 12:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to access the Montreal Exchange
Replies: 0
Views: 170

How to access the Montreal Exchange

I'm wondering if I wanted to purchase options that were only available from the Montreal Exchange, are there any brokers here who are capable of providing access to that? I've called two so far and the reps said they can access the international stock but not the options for that stock. Does anyone ...
by Caduceus
Thu Mar 18, 2021 11:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is the BEST thing you spent money on?
Replies: 242
Views: 24016

Re: What is the BEST thing you spent money on?

For me it would be antiques. I want to write a book on the history of a particular subject from the 19th - mid 20th century that's connected to my own family history, and I've spent a lot of my free time and a good amount of money acquiring everything I can find related to it. My true love would be ...
by Caduceus
Thu Mar 18, 2021 11:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Would you sell or rent out this house?
Replies: 25
Views: 1345

Re: Would you sell or rent out this house?

I would sell. Using the midpoint of both your estimated sales and estimated rents puts you at around 9% gross rent. Subtract out all the costs of repairs and any depreciation/damage, potential vacancies, costs associated with rental, taxes, and so on, and you're not netting very much. Your time is w...
by Caduceus
Thu Mar 18, 2021 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Have there been historic parallels to this moment?
Replies: 2
Views: 345

Have there been historic parallels to this moment?

I am wondering if there are any parallels to the broader financial situation that we are living through now in global financial history. Have there been periods where we've gone through prolonged ultra low interest rate levels and accommodative monetary policy (in whatever form) or is this something...
by Caduceus
Wed Mar 17, 2021 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends...please explain
Replies: 131
Views: 10159

Re: Dividends...please explain

If a company never pays dividends, how do you (hopefully) make any money? The same way you (hopefully) make money by buying Bitcoin — hope that you can sell to someone else at some point in the future. The point of owning a profitable business is that it can pay out some profits to you so that you ...
by Caduceus
Wed Mar 17, 2021 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio Bond Advice - What options do we have?
Replies: 85
Views: 9926

Re: Ray Dalio Bond Advice - What options do we have?

I can't seriously believe that anyone would change the way they invest just because of some opinion by a dude who happened to have said in 2019 there was a significant chance of a market downturn in 2020 and then when it happened got completely caught flat-footed anyway because he was in all the wr...
by Caduceus
Wed Mar 17, 2021 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio Bond Advice - What options do we have?
Replies: 85
Views: 9926

Re: Ray Dalio Bond Advice - What options do we have?

I think he underestimates cash. There's a tendency for many investors to think about cash as doing nothing. But cash is essentially an at-the-money put option on all assets at current prices serving as the strike prices. And when you think about it that way - which I think is the right way - then yo...
by Caduceus
Wed Mar 17, 2021 10:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Adding margin lending to a Fidelity after-tax brokerage account
Replies: 53
Views: 2480

Re: Adding margin lending to a Fidelity after-tax brokerage account

I am having trouble picturing the scenario where this is necessary, unless someone wants to be virtually 100% equity in their taxable accounts. Can anyone educate me. You don't have to be 100% equity. You can margin bonds and bond funds. In fact, they provide more borrowing ability than equities. T...
by Caduceus
Wed Mar 17, 2021 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio Bond Advice - What options do we have?
Replies: 85
Views: 9926

Re: Ray Dalio Bond Advice - What options do we have?

I can't seriously believe that anyone would change the way they invest just because of some opinion by a dude who happened to have said in 2019 there was a significant chance of a market downturn in 2020 and then when it happened got completely caught flat-footed anyway because he was in all the wro...
by Caduceus
Wed Mar 17, 2021 8:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Selling rare/expensive beanie babies
Replies: 56
Views: 5992

Re: Selling rare/expensive beanie babies

Local buyer paying through cash after on site evaluation is best, failing which I think Ebay or Etsy might be it. I'm not sure if the market for fraud for beanie babies is high. Sometimes it depends on the item. I've never experienced fraud myself on Ebay but I sell relatively infrequently. She shou...
by Caduceus
Wed Mar 17, 2021 6:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we in a housing bubble?
Replies: 298
Views: 37009

Re: Are we in a housing bubble?

I just read an interesting Bloomberg story about Canada's white-hot housing market. I know little about Canada's RE market but it seems like things are more challenging up there vs. the US. Rates have been lower than the US. 1.97% at the end of 2020 for a common fixed-rate mortgage. Different dynam...
by Caduceus
Tue Mar 16, 2021 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we in a housing bubble?
Replies: 298
Views: 37009

Re: Are we in a housing bubble?

For those who feel frustrated, let me tell you the situation in China, perhaps this will make you feel better... When we talk about housing price is high, we are talking about combining all the savings from a young couple and both their parents (i.e. 6 wallets) to make the downpayment to buy a cond...
by Caduceus
Tue Mar 16, 2021 4:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it even make sense to compare countries by CAPE? Why do we care about the long term CAPE?
Replies: 6
Views: 681

Re: Does it even make sense to compare countries by CAPE? Why do we care about the long term CAPE?

The CAPE ratio is a useful way of estimating what the likely returns are because inverting it gives you a measure of yield, so it's not just some random number, and the earnings are averaged out over time, so it may give a better "normalized" sense of what earnings should be, instead of be...
by Caduceus
Tue Mar 16, 2021 1:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Creating An Anti Fragile Portfolio
Replies: 86
Views: 6637

Re: Creating An Anti Fragile Portfolio

I don't think a perfect anti-fragile portfolio exists because you would have to purchase hedges for too many different types of black swan events. But you can be anti-fragile in the way you're describing by pre-paying for what you need for financial independence. You could pay off your house and set...