Search found 7928 matches

by arcticpineapplecorp.
Mon Jun 14, 2021 9:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to tilt away from possible bubbles in mega-cap growth stocks
Replies: 24
Views: 1339

Re: How to tilt away from possible bubbles in mega-cap growth stocks

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2900447 A landmark academic study that came out a few years ago reached a startling conclusion: This 10% return could be traced to fewer than 4% of all public companies. On average, the stocks of the other 96% returned about 3% a year, similar to t...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Mon Jun 14, 2021 7:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Its time to tilt back to a more conservative allocation
Replies: 28
Views: 1905

Re: Its time to tilt back to a more conservative allocation

Am I wrong? Attach a date range and a specific target and we can check in hind sight. Impossible to say in advance without a crystal ball. Personally, I've been expecting a crash for several years now (we did get one last year... but that recovered way faster than I was expecting). Glad I have stuc...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Mon Jun 14, 2021 7:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Its time to tilt back to a more conservative allocation
Replies: 28
Views: 1905

Re: Its time to tilt back to a more conservative allocation

Attach a date range and a specific target and we can check in hind sight. Impossible to say in advance without a crystal ball. Personally, I've been expecting a crash for several years now (we did get one last year... but that recovered way faster than I was expecting). Glad I have stuck to my Asse...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Mon Jun 14, 2021 3:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Its time to tilt back to a more conservative allocation
Replies: 28
Views: 1905

Re: Its time to tilt back to a more conservative allocation

what does your IPS tell you to do? https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Investment_policy_statement if you don't have an IPS, you will be changing your allocation everytime you read some article. when you have an IPS you have a predetermined allocation that allows you to take only the risk you have the n...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Mon Jun 14, 2021 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: quick I need a source
Replies: 6
Views: 557

Re: quick I need a source

not sure if this answers your question but...

Image

don't forget, there's also this:

Image
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Mon Jun 14, 2021 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worried About PE Ratios?
Replies: 47
Views: 2288

Re: Worried About PE Ratios?

Many recent posts about high PE ratios. This is rarely a predictor of the future (and CAPE PE10 even less so). Keep in mind that May/June 2009 PEs topped out over 100 - this was one of the best opportunities to buy. During the entire ride up, CAPE PE10 Robert Shiller has bemoaned the overvalued sto...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Mon Jun 14, 2021 7:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to Protect Savings from stock market crash
Replies: 23
Views: 2458

Re: How to Protect Savings from stock market crash

That JP Morgan chart is ludicrous. They should have shown "Missed the best 10 days and the 10 worst days ", etc. for a meaningful example. guess 9 out of 10 then ain't half bad. well the worst days are often around the best days (see below) so if you stay the course you usually recover bu...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Sun Jun 13, 2021 8:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How & Should I DCA 200K windfall right now?
Replies: 21
Views: 1851

Re: How & Should I DCA 200K windfall right now?

I could start DCA’ing it into the market, but I’ll be DCA’ing anyway with what I save from my salary. This “doubling up” does admittedly feel a bit weird, almost like I should do some more creative asset allocation to minimize risk. These thoughts led me to another idea: perhaps putting half or a t...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Sun Jun 13, 2021 8:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to Protect Savings from stock market crash
Replies: 23
Views: 2458

Re: How to Protect Savings from stock market crash

That JP Morgan chart is ludicrous. They should have shown "Missed the best 10 days and the 10 worst days ", etc. for a meaningful example. guess 9 out of 10 then ain't half bad. well the worst days are often around the best days (see below) so if you stay the course you usually recover bu...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Sun Jun 13, 2021 8:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to Protect Savings from stock market crash
Replies: 23
Views: 2458

Re: How to Protect Savings from stock market crash

1. first define what you mean by "crash". is it 20%? 30%? 40%? 50%? What exactly? Important to know because if you think a crash is when the market falls 20% that's very different from what others might consider a "crash". 2. realize you can make 4 types of errors by trying to ma...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Sun Jun 13, 2021 8:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should niece focus on Roth or Defined benefit or both?
Replies: 3
Views: 427

Re: Should niece focus on Roth or Defined benefit or both?

if she looks into PSLF or TLF and that lowers the amount of her monthly student loan payment (and then remaining balance after 10 years would be forgiven/no tax owed on amount forgiven) then she'd have additional money to put towards Roth (after doing Defined benefit first to get the tax deduction w...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Sat Jun 12, 2021 10:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Managed bond accounts
Replies: 8
Views: 751

Re: Managed bond accounts

If tax loss harvesting is the main benefit and selling point, I don't see how the numbers work out. Maybe my grasp of the tax code is tenuous, and someone more knowledgeable will correct me. But what I see is 0.45% of 1.2 million = $5400 management cost a year, every year. My understanding is that ...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Sat Jun 12, 2021 10:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where to park 130k for 6 months
Replies: 39
Views: 3497

Re: Where to park 130k for 6 months

Equities. Leave half in Ally and put the other half in your favorite vanilla equity etf or stock. I like a blue chip dividend stock for this purpose. It’s what I did. You would also be just fine with SPY in my view. Six months is not a long enough time horizon for a stock investment, in my opinion ...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Sat Jun 12, 2021 8:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where to park 130k for 6 months
Replies: 39
Views: 3497

Re: Where to park 130k for 6 months

All of that said, we now have 130k sitting in our Ally account earning 0.50%. The plan is to hold off on any backyard work until we are done with the interior of the house (in case of change orders, or other things that come up). So basically, we sitting on this money for the next 6 months. Keeping...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Wed Jun 09, 2021 1:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tracking AA/rebalancing
Replies: 7
Views: 820

Re: Tracking AA/rebalancing

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Using_a_spreadsheet_to_maintain_a_portfolio https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=297892 https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=217080 https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=106505 https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=200045 ...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Wed Jun 09, 2021 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BBerg: Pensions are almost fully funded and coming for your bonds
Replies: 12
Views: 1504

Re: BBerg: Pensions are almost fully funded and coming for your bonds

I can't read the article (behind paywall). Is it saying all US pensions or just corporate pensions are fully funded? If just the latter, I think this title should be revised to say " Corporate Pensions are almost fully funded and coming for your corporate bonds." When I look at the state ...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Wed Jun 09, 2021 1:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wasp repellant?
Replies: 10
Views: 1058

Re: Wasp repellant?

we had the same problems. then I found a wasp decoy and have used them for the past 2 years with very good results. wasps are territorial and if they see what appears to be a significant nest they will set up their nests elsewhere (won't build where you are). The trick is to get it up early in the s...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Wed Jun 09, 2021 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BBerg: Pensions are almost fully funded and coming for your bonds
Replies: 12
Views: 1504

Re: BBerg: Pensions are almost fully funded and coming for your bonds

I can't read the article (behind paywall). Is it saying all US pensions or just corporate pensions are fully funded? If just the latter, I think this title should be revised to say " Corporate Pensions are almost fully funded and coming for your corporate bonds." When I look at the state o...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Tue Jun 08, 2021 9:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: the math is really off in this cnbc (and acorns) article regarding compounding interest
Replies: 3
Views: 856

the math is really off in this cnbc (and acorns) article regarding compounding interest

this clickbait article asked how much would you have for retirement if you saved $100 a week in your 401k: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/08/you-dont-have-to-pad-your-401k-to-save-enough-money-for-retirement.html the assumptions are: 1. you will start investing in your 401(k) at age 22 2. your investm...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Tue Jun 08, 2021 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Growth to Value Rotation
Replies: 16
Views: 1238

Re: Growth to Value Rotation

often the value outperformance comes very quickly. If you're not holding value during those short quick bursts, you don't actually capture the premium. Often people give up on value because the underperformance relative to growth can occur for long periods of time, then investors bail and the premiu...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Growth to Value Rotation
Replies: 16
Views: 1238

Re: Growth to Value Rotation

if you hold a total stock market index fund you have both value and growth so you don't have to worry about which is outperforming when. You've got it all. See here:

Image

and this

Image
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Tue Jun 08, 2021 11:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Pension buyout - take it or leave it
Replies: 18
Views: 1538

Re: Pension buyout - take it or leave it

if you go to www.immediateannuities.com and enter male, 73, state (unknown, I used mine) and immediate payment and $162,233 you get a lifetime monthly annuity of $1021. so it looks like he'd do better with the monthly pension than the buyout (10% better than the commercial annuity). Obviously, they ...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Tue Jun 08, 2021 6:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New York standard deduction and ABLE accounts
Replies: 3
Views: 307

Re: New York standard deduction and ABLE accounts

I am also not sure if any SSI payments are considered taxable income by NY, which alone could put him over even the higher standard deduction amount. For this reason I may open the NY ABLE account to avoid state taxation of a any earnings. There is another state (Virginia) that has a superior plan ...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Mon Jun 07, 2021 7:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New York standard deduction and ABLE accounts
Replies: 3
Views: 307

Re: New York standard deduction and ABLE accounts

I am also not sure if any SSI payments are considered taxable income by NY, which alone could put him over even the higher standard deduction amount. For this reason I may open the NY ABLE account to avoid state taxation of a any earnings. There is another state (Virginia) that has a superior plan ...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Sun Jun 06, 2021 8:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hacking
Replies: 22
Views: 2235

Re: Hacking

She says that she has contacted the authorities, but she has not lost enough money to trigger a formal investigation . what does this even mean? What would constitute losing "enough"? What would not constitute enough? I would think any amount of money stolen would be enough to investigate...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Sun Jun 06, 2021 8:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Worried about my Mom's investment
Replies: 28
Views: 2724

Re: Worried about my Mom's investment

did you read up on this advisor's ADV and ADV part 2? https://obliviousinvestor.com/checking-out-an-investment-adviser-form-adv-part-ii/ you find out all sorts of interesting things there. like any disclosures (settlements, complaints, etc), all the ways he can get paid (AUM, commission, etc), how ...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Sun Jun 06, 2021 5:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 457b Questions & Concerns
Replies: 8
Views: 750

Re: 457b Questions & Concerns

the target date is fine if you want the added diversification, or use the schwab pcra or you could put more of the small and mid and/or international if desired in your Roth IRA or taxable acct and use the 457 for the large cap.
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Sun Jun 06, 2021 5:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Worried about my Mom's investment
Replies: 28
Views: 2724

Re: Worried about my Mom's investment

did you read up on this advisor's ADV and ADV part 2? https://obliviousinvestor.com/checking-out-an-investment-adviser-form-adv-part-ii/ you find out all sorts of interesting things there. like any disclosures (settlements, complaints, etc), all the ways he can get paid (AUM, commission, etc), how m...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Fri Jun 04, 2021 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using a total stock fund and W/W to create 70/30
Replies: 6
Views: 978

Re: Using a total stock fund and W/W to create 70/30

I've been considering switching the bond portion of my tax advantaged account to an active fund such as Wellington or Wellesley. My desired allocation in these accounts is 70/30 so I'm considering 50/50 Wellesley/total stock market or 80/20 Wellington/total stock market. Both bring me to my desired...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Fri Jun 04, 2021 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using a total stock fund and W/W to create 70/30
Replies: 6
Views: 978

Re: Using a total stock fund and W/W to create 70/30

I've been considering switching the bond portion of my tax advantaged account to an active fund such as Wellington or Wellesley. My desired allocation in these accounts is 70/30 so I'm considering 50/50 Wellesley/total stock market or 80/20 Wellington/total stock market. Both bring me to my desired...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Fri Jun 04, 2021 10:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Need help choosing a bond fund in my 401
Replies: 7
Views: 663

Re: Need help choosing a bond fund in my 401

I have my 401 setup through Fidelity and I have access to the brokerage link so I can choose about any bond fund through their platform for my 401. I just don't know enough about bonds and interest rates to understand which fund is the best option going forward. I was going to use an inflation prot...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Fri Jun 04, 2021 10:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Approaching my Bosses [would like to work from home]
Replies: 13
Views: 1419

Re: Approaching my Bosses

have you seen this post:
viewtopic.php?p=6032432#p6032432

you might get some ideas there.
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Thu Jun 03, 2021 8:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Non-COLA Pension Modeler
Replies: 14
Views: 1517

Re: Non-COLA Pension Modeler

Unfortunately, I don't have a lump sum option, which I would choose otherwise. Before feeling left out...use immediateannuities.com and plug in your pension’s current value to see what kind annuity you could purchase. My guess is your pension will provide you with more monthly income than an annuit...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Thu Jun 03, 2021 3:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: AMC exit strategy... Anyone
Replies: 72
Views: 5989

Re: AMC exit strategy... Anyone

first there's FOMO
next there's YOLO
finally, there's OH NO
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Thu Jun 03, 2021 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AMC+passive [Forbes article]
Replies: 26
Views: 2188

Re: AMC+passive [Forbes article]

can anyone independently confirm the author's following claim: For example, at the end of Q2 last year, Vanguard owned 4.7 million shares of AMC. Then, after AMC rallied huge in Q1 of this year, Vanguard bought over 29 million more AMC shares, bringing its total holdings to 37.4 million worth $978 m...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Wed Jun 02, 2021 8:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand what's happening with AMC shares
Replies: 72
Views: 6065

Re: I don't understand what's happening with AMC shares

First, there's FOMO
Next, there's YOLO
Finally, there's OH NO
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Wed Jun 02, 2021 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand what's happening with AMC shares
Replies: 72
Views: 6065

Re: I don't understand what's happening with AMC shares

apparently wsb is trying to push blackberry up next (because it's gone up 50% in the past few days). this is not a buy recommendation, i'm just saying we'll start seeing lots of threads on blackberry next now that AMC and Gamestop are so yesterday's news. This is what people think investing is, prop...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Wed Jun 02, 2021 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand what's happening with AMC shares
Replies: 72
Views: 6065

Re: I don't understand what's happening with AMC shares

Today AMC shares have gone up a lot after a hedge fund sold at a profit a large number of them which it got from AMC https://www.wsj.com/articles/amc-shares-soar-after-company-raises-230-million-in-stock-sale-11622571307 Is there any rationality in what is happening? If so can anyone explain this t...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Wed Jun 02, 2021 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand what's happening with AMC shares
Replies: 72
Views: 6065

Re: I don't understand what's happening with AMC shares

Today AMC shares have gone up a lot after a hedge fund sold at a profit a large number of them which it got from AMC https://www.wsj.com/articles/amc-shares-soar-after-company-raises-230-million-in-stock-sale-11622571307 Is there any rationality in what is happening? If so can anyone explain this t...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Wed Jun 02, 2021 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand what's happening with AMC shares
Replies: 72
Views: 6065

Re: I don't understand what's happening with AMC shares

Bigger fool FOMO investing. Same as crypto. So AMC sells shares to a hedge fund, which is diluting, but stock goes up anyway (they see it is a positive sign). Then the hedge fund makes a profit and dumps the shares, but it goes up more. Apparently roaring kitty getting back in the mix is a reason t...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Wed Jun 02, 2021 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One secret to successful investing? Keep calm
Replies: 11
Views: 1697

One secret to successful investing? Keep calm

just got this in my inbox and thought I'd share it. thought this was a nice short video by Vanguard on why if you have a well designed portfolio to meet your goals, you really can tune out the noise because those are merely moments and have nothing to do with the long term. Sorry it has to keep bein...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Wed Jun 02, 2021 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Critical view of index investing
Replies: 55
Views: 5665

Re: Critical view of index investing

Town is a novice to me. If her father did not get famous over Rule #1, I would probably never hear of her. ????? If you think Town is a novice, why did you read her book? And what do you mean about "famous over Rule #1?" The person famous for "Rule #1" is Warren Buffett: Rule No...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Wed Jun 02, 2021 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Critical view of index investing
Replies: 55
Views: 5665

Re: Critical view of index investing

arguably one of the best value investors and by definition, active manger, Warren Buffett did slightly better than the total market between Nov 2007-Mar 2009 (-45% for Berkshire Hathaway vs -54% for VTSAX): https://i.postimg.cc/d0Cw4SzB/Capture.jpg source: http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/ch...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Wed Jun 02, 2021 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Critical view of index investing
Replies: 55
Views: 5665

Re: Critical view of index investing

i would say this author (never heard of her before) hasn't read these 2000+ boglehead posts showing the opposite of her claims: https://www.google.com/search?sitesearch=bogleheads.org&q=does+active+beat+index+during+bear+markets after reading those past posts, what do you now think of Ms. Town? ...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Wed Jun 02, 2021 1:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: AMC exit strategy... Anyone
Replies: 72
Views: 5989

Re: AMC exit strategy... Anyone

Instead of saying that you made a percentage, tell us the dollar amount of your profit and what percentage of your investible portfolio you put towards AMC. That is the true measure of your nerve. Well. As I mentioned, it was play money. I got 200 stocks at $14. Exited all at 49.. So I guess ~6K pr...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Wed Jun 02, 2021 12:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing at near all time highs?
Replies: 28
Views: 3264

Re: Investing at near all time highs?

these types of questions make it seem like all or nothing. black or white. but i don't see your strategy as all in or all out of the market. it looks like you have 80% in stocks and 20% not in stocks. If they're inherited accounts you'll have to withdraw in 10 years presumably (unless exemption met...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Wed Jun 02, 2021 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Are People Doing with their Oil and Natural Gas Stocks
Replies: 93
Views: 7687

Re: What Are People Doing with their Oil and Natural Gas Stocks

Artic. I am pretty sure you are right. But XOM did great from 1980 to 2008ish and then has been flat to bad since. The company made a big push into natural gas and LNG in the early 2000s. Then NG prices crashed and have stayed down due to fracking finding all kinds of NG. This NG move caused me to ...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Wed Jun 02, 2021 11:30 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing at near all time highs?
Replies: 28
Views: 3264

Re: Investing at near all time highs?

these types of questions make it seem like all or nothing. black or white. but i don't see your strategy as all in or all out of the market. it looks like you have 80% in stocks and 20% not in stocks. If they're inherited accounts you'll have to withdraw in 10 years presumably (unless exemption met)...
by arcticpineapplecorp.
Wed Jun 02, 2021 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Are People Doing with their Oil and Natural Gas Stocks
Replies: 93
Views: 7687

Re: What Are People Doing with their Oil and Natural Gas Stocks

I have owned Exxon Mobile stock since 1980. The dividends helped me put my kids through college. The stock now pays me more dividends per year than I paid for the stock. I have purchased more stock twice when the stock went on sale. The added stock I bought last year is up 50%. I am not sure I will...