Search found 925 matches

by bling
Wed Apr 14, 2021 9:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: IC to Manager
Replies: 16
Views: 1685

Re: IC to Manager

think about the best managers you've had in your career and try and figure out what they did to allow you to be the most effective IC you can be. also note that not all industries are the same. traditionally the only way to make more money was to take on management, but tech in particular has thrown...
by bling
Mon Apr 05, 2021 7:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I open a spousal IRA for my non-citizen wife?
Replies: 8
Views: 853

Re: Can I open a spousal IRA for my non-citizen wife?

Our preference would be to file our taxes as MFJ and were planning on using the nonresident spouse option; I think my confusion stems from not understanding the difference between a tax resident and a resident from an immigration perspective. you won't have a preference. if she lives in the US with...
by bling
Mon Apr 05, 2021 7:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which life insurance to get? Work vs. personal policy
Replies: 34
Views: 2314

Re: Which life insurance to get? Work vs. personal policy

i have both. i own multiple policies and created a ladder. every 5 years or so a policy will lapse. i kind of view my employment life insurance as the "top-up" portion of the ladder.
by bling
Sun Mar 28, 2021 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Nobody Knows Nothin'"
Replies: 83
Views: 7860

Re: "Nobody Knows Nothin'"

not a fan of the quote. it's a bit hypocritical to claim "nobody knows nothing" yet push the narrative that index funds are superior.
by bling
Sat Mar 27, 2021 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Holding Mortgage + investing in taxable = leveraged investing?
Replies: 15
Views: 1787

Re: Holding Mortgage + investing in taxable = leveraged investing?

ChinchillaWhiplash wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 7:20 pm 3.875% mortgage fixed.
refinance? rates have been creeping up but you should still be able to get a 30yr in the high 2s.
by bling
Thu Mar 25, 2021 7:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The wash sale rules can't possibly be THIS antagonistic
Replies: 140
Views: 10531

Re: The wash sale rules can't possibly be THIS antagonistic

i have a spreadsheet. every time i trade anything in any account, i add a row. if it's a sell, i add the ticker to the "no buy" list. 31 days later, i remove it from the "no buy" list. that's it. super simple and i've never had a wash sale in years. Do you mean "If it's a s...
by bling
Wed Mar 24, 2021 9:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The wash sale rules can't possibly be THIS antagonistic
Replies: 140
Views: 10531

Re: The wash sale rules can't possibly be THIS antagonistic

i have a spreadsheet. every time i trade anything in any account, i add a row. if it's a sell, i add the ticker to the "no buy" list. 31 days later, i remove it from the "no buy" list. that's it. super simple and i've never had a wash sale in years.
by bling
Wed Mar 17, 2021 6:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: High earners, about how much tax do you pay?
Replies: 79
Views: 9376

Re: High earners, about how much tax do you pay?

wow, y'all make some impressive incomes, congrats! it's slightly amusing to me that some pay more in taxes than the gross income specified in the OP.
by bling
Sat Mar 13, 2021 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: OK, So How Low Can VGLT Long-Term Treasuries Realistically Fall?
Replies: 41
Views: 3113

Re: OK, So How Low Can VGLT Long-Term Treasuries Realistically Fall?

just means it's locked and loaded to come save the day the next time stocks crash.
by bling
Sat Mar 13, 2021 7:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taxable and Roth asset allocation
Replies: 1
Views: 265

Re: Taxable and Roth asset allocation

1) VT holds at the world market cap, which is currently around 55/45 US/ex-US. you're at 74% US so it's a significant difference from your existing allocation. if you're worried about emerging markets you can sell both SCHF and SCHE for IXUS or VXUS which will hold EM at the market cap, so at least ...
by bling
Mon Mar 08, 2021 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Proper Asset Allocation for High Net Worth
Replies: 74
Views: 6515

Re: Proper Asset Allocation for High Net Worth

^The answer is: It won't matter. The proper allocation (whatever it is as long as it is not extreme) will not matter when one is spending 1% to 2% of one's portfolio annually. it won't matter because you have so much money. but, i think your objectives change when you get there. for many, the goal ...
by bling
Sun Mar 07, 2021 8:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation of Net Wealth (if mortgages are negative bonds)
Replies: 57
Views: 4005

Re: Asset Allocation of Net Wealth (if mortgages are negative bonds)

a house is absolutely an investment because its expected appreciation exceeds the cost of maintenance/upkeep. it's a very illiquid investment, but an investment nonetheless. my home value increased 8% in 2020. i did not pay extra principal. if i take out a HELOC right now i can get a much higher li...
by bling
Sun Mar 07, 2021 5:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation of Net Wealth (if mortgages are negative bonds)
Replies: 57
Views: 4005

Re: Asset Allocation of Net Wealth (if mortgages are negative bonds)

It seems like you've already decided that you want to keep a mortgage in retirement no matter what. That's fine, but there's no disputing that there is greater risk by doing so. There is no 'insurance' to it. If you pay off your mortgage, you eliminate downside risk and get a guaranteed return gene...
by bling
Sun Mar 07, 2021 3:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation of Net Wealth (if mortgages are negative bonds)
Replies: 57
Views: 4005

Re: Asset Allocation of Net Wealth (if mortgages are negative bonds)

Most asset allocation formulas ignore home equity and other non financial / less liquid assets. Some suggest AA should be a function of net wealth, but no discussion on that that means beyond that. IMHO, home value should be part of net wealth AA, but not related to the net bond part. I guess you w...
by bling
Sun Mar 07, 2021 3:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation of Net Wealth (if mortgages are negative bonds)
Replies: 57
Views: 4005

Re: Asset Allocation of Net Wealth (if mortgages are negative bonds)

I agree that 100/0 isn't an appropriate total AA for a retiree, but that's not what I was suggesting. It wouldn't make any sense right now to take out a 3% mortgage to turn around and invest it in 1% bonds. That's negative arbitrage. The only real hope that those have for retaining a mortgage is th...
by bling
Sun Mar 07, 2021 2:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation of Net Wealth (if mortgages are negative bonds)
Replies: 57
Views: 4005

Re: Asset Allocation of Net Wealth (if mortgages are negative bonds)

Without getting into the math, debt of all kinds acts as leverage, and leverage makes the good times better but the bad times worse. If your portfolio performs poorly (i.e., negative returns), you don't get to delay paying your mortgage until your portfolio recovers. You must make that mortgage pay...
by bling
Sun Mar 07, 2021 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can one have too much Roth?
Replies: 265
Views: 27464

Re: Can one have too much Roth?

Maybe 15 years ago I was told by a financial advisor I may have my head handed to me after retirement. Kind of scary, but somehow I wrote it off. Then a decade ago I did some calculations. Dividends and cap gains in taxable, check. SS Income (@70 of course), check. Pension income, check. Real estat...
by bling
Sat Mar 06, 2021 7:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation of Net Wealth (if mortgages are negative bonds)
Replies: 57
Views: 4005

Re: Asset Allocation of Net Wealth (if mortgages are negative bonds)

no, you cannot delay payments, but you can own enough bonds such that it will never happen. you could create 3 buckets, first bucket ensures you always have enough bonds to meet your mortgage payment obligations, second bucket of bonds for your minimum standard of living, and the rest in stocks. an...
by bling
Sat Mar 06, 2021 6:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation of Net Wealth (if mortgages are negative bonds)
Replies: 57
Views: 4005

Re: Asset Allocation of Net Wealth (if mortgages are negative bonds)

how so? you could retire at 65, take out a mortgage and you more or less know your monthly costs for the next 30 years. during accumulation years, you might lose your job and income, preventing you from making your payment and losing the house. it's the complete opposite during retirement. you know...
by bling
Sat Mar 06, 2021 5:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation of Net Wealth (if mortgages are negative bonds)
Replies: 57
Views: 4005

Re: Asset Allocation of Net Wealth (if mortgages are negative bonds)

What i have found helpful is thinking about how i want things to look at retirement and then working backwards: 1) At retirement, i want a pension, a paid off house , and a prudently-allocated investment portfolio. having a paid off house is very common advice, but at the same time, if your SWR rat...
by bling
Sat Mar 06, 2021 4:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation of Net Wealth (if mortgages are negative bonds)
Replies: 57
Views: 4005

Re: Asset Allocation of Net Wealth (if mortgages are negative bonds)

What i have found helpful is thinking about how i want things to look at retirement and then working backwards: 1) At retirement, i want a pension, a paid off house , and a prudently-allocated investment portfolio. having a paid off house is very common advice, but at the same time, if your SWR rat...
by bling
Sat Mar 06, 2021 10:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation of Net Wealth (if mortgages are negative bonds)
Replies: 57
Views: 4005

Re: Asset Allocation of Net Wealth (if mortgages are negative bonds)

Most asset allocation formulas ignore home equity and other non financial / less liquid assets. Some suggest AA should be a function of net wealth, but no discussion on that that means beyond that. IMHO, home value should be part of net wealth AA, but not related to the net bond part. I guess you w...
by bling
Sat Mar 06, 2021 7:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: asset allocation strategy for 529
Replies: 11
Views: 1068

Re: asset allocation strategy for 529

My thinking goes like this. Since I view all of my accounts with one global asset allocation, and if the tax benefit of a 529 means growth is tax-free if used for college, wouldn't I best keep bonds in a 401k and keep equities in a 529? If equities outperform, yippee, more free college. If equities...
by bling
Thu Mar 04, 2021 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why 100% stocks and not use some put option writing?
Replies: 97
Views: 5832

Re: Why 100% stocks and not use some put option writing?

https://www.cboe.com/us/indices/dashboard/PPUT/

not every site can chart the ticker, google can. and while 5 years is very short it sure did really well last year.
by bling
Thu Mar 04, 2021 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How crazy is it to hold 100% equities until retirement? (ERN)
Replies: 540
Views: 21870

Re: How crazy is it to hold 100% equities until retirement? (ERN)

Comments about 75% market drop and taking 20 years to recover is getting kind of ridiculous. If this happens there will be problems waaay beyond the stock market. yes and no. the stock market is not the economy. the entire world economy shut down because of the pandemic yet the return for 2020 was ...
by bling
Tue Mar 02, 2021 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How crazy is it to hold 100% equities until retirement? (ERN)
Replies: 540
Views: 21870

Re: How crazy is it to hold 100% equities until retirement? (ERN)

I've been investing since 2007. Up until very recently when I increased international ever so slightly, I held a 56/24/20 U.S./International/U.S. bond allocation. I was wondering how much the bonds hurt me. I compared that to a 100% equity allocation at 60/40 U.S./International allocation and it se...
by bling
Tue Mar 02, 2021 8:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money relative to your salary makes it pointless to continue working?
Replies: 79
Views: 6325

Re: How much money relative to your salary makes it pointless to continue working?

for me, i think it's when my yearly salary is the same as the typical daily fluctuation of my portfolio.
by bling
Tue Mar 02, 2021 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is a good rule of thumb for how much percentage of your net worth you can afford to spend on a house?
Replies: 30
Views: 2281

Re: What is a good rule of thumb for how much percentage of your net worth you can afford to spend on a house?

surprised to see other posters say there's no rules of thumb. if a rule of thumb for rent is 1/3 your paycheck it's not much different to replace rent with mortgage+taxes+maintenance. plug that number into a neighborhood of choice and you will get a number. that number will tell you what kind of hou...
by bling
Tue Mar 02, 2021 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor
Replies: 542
Views: 27358

Re: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor

The reason you have an emergency fund is so that you don't have to sell your investments. Of course, I'm also not going to watch my investments drop 50%. as evidenced by multiple EF threads every month or so, there is not universal agreement whether one should have a dedicated EF or whether it's in...
by bling
Tue Mar 02, 2021 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor
Replies: 542
Views: 27358

Re: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor

the primary reason why i'm invested in LTTs is for the negative correlation with stocks, not for its yield. the SEC yield is currently 1.88%. well, the fund goes up/down that much every day, which makes the yield seem irrelevant by comparison. if stocks drop 50% my home equity won't suddenly increa...
by bling
Mon Mar 01, 2021 11:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor
Replies: 542
Views: 27358

Re: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor

So it seems to me that there must be some reason to hold bonds and that reason can't simply be behavioral, in my view. There definitely ARE real benefits to owning bonds. The problem is that a mortgage essentially represents a direct cancellation of those benefits, and typically lowers returns as w...
by bling
Mon Mar 01, 2021 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor
Replies: 542
Views: 27358

Re: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor

So it seems to me that there must be some reason to hold bonds and that reason can't simply be behavioral, in my view. There definitely ARE real benefits to owning bonds. The problem is that a mortgage essentially represents a direct cancellation of those benefits, and typically lowers returns as w...
by bling
Mon Mar 01, 2021 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor
Replies: 542
Views: 27358

Re: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor

However, if I put my bond money to the mortgage, count the principal reduction/difference as part of my bond allocation, then equities crash, I'm heavy on bonds with no way to rebalance my portfolio. Another consideration. My mortgage has 29 years left. I can put extra money to it and be guaranteed...
by bling
Mon Mar 01, 2021 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor
Replies: 542
Views: 27358

Re: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor

This thread is something out of an alternate universe. Come on, people. A bond is a bond. It has two sides. They cancel out. Yep. It's mindboggling. It really boils down to people being told a few things: 1) if you buy bonds, you'll reduce the volatility in your portfolio and get a smaller return 2...
by bling
Mon Mar 01, 2021 7:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor
Replies: 542
Views: 27358

Re: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor

Before you pay anything down, do remember that a mortgage has an implied call option on interest rates that you "forfeit" by just prepaying. Depending on your mortgage rate, you might actually come out ahead by just buying bonds and selling call options. This often gets ignored in these c...
by bling
Sun Feb 28, 2021 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor
Replies: 542
Views: 27358

Re: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor

my fuss is that this invalidates many of the most common recommendations out there. age in bonds is invalid. minimum 20% bonds is invalid. target date funds are invalid. “Age in bonds” and “at least 20% in bonds” were never good recommendations, regardless of where you come down on this topic. The ...
by bling
Sun Feb 28, 2021 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor
Replies: 542
Views: 27358

Re: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor

What am I missing? After sufficient liquidity / emergency fund is established, it does not make sense, from a purely financial perspective, to invest in any fixed income that has an expected return lower than the effective interest rate of your mortgage. There may be psychological reasons why an in...
by bling
Sun Feb 28, 2021 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using FireCalc In a 529 Scenario
Replies: 3
Views: 438

Re: Using FireCalc In a 529 Scenario

i used to have a separate age glide path for my 529s but have since ditched into for 100% stock. i figured that if i was going to help my kids go to college then it doesn't really matter which bucket i take it from. 100% in the 529 has the highest chance of least taxes paid.
by bling
Sun Feb 28, 2021 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor
Replies: 542
Views: 27358

Re: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor

Reduced volatility is only relative to your investment portfolio, not your net worth. If you have $500K in stock and the stock market loses half its value, you lose $250K, which is the same fraction of your net worth whether you sell all your bonds to pay down your mortgage or not. this ignores the...
by bling
Sun Feb 28, 2021 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor
Replies: 542
Views: 27358

Re: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor

The statements are true if you place a REASONABLE value on how bonds interact with stocks in a portfolio. That value clearly isn't zero, but it's also not 90bps a year. Not for intermediate-term bonds, anyway. that i can agree with. soooo, as someone who started the thread on recommending the first...
by bling
Sun Feb 28, 2021 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor
Replies: 542
Views: 27358

Re: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor

The difference between A and B is known. You will come out ahead or behind with A by the difference between bond yields and mortgage rates. In scenario B, if the bond yields are less than the mortgage rates, the bond payments will not quite cover the mortgage payments, so you have to make up the di...
by bling
Sun Feb 28, 2021 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?
Replies: 827
Views: 69023

Re: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?

canadianbacon wrote: Sat Feb 27, 2021 12:13 pm Ben Felix timely as ever: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p6HrepdLSu4
from all the examples in the video it looks like ARKK is going to drop any time now.
by bling
Sun Feb 28, 2021 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor
Replies: 542
Views: 27358

Re: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor

We’re trying to explain that you erroneously gave one scenario more wealth than the other scenario. Your scenarios aren’t comparable. ok, let's correct it. scenario A: 500k stocks, 0 bonds, no mortgage. after 50% drop = 250k portfolio value. you cannot rebalance because you have nothing else to buy...
by bling
Sat Feb 27, 2021 6:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor
Replies: 542
Views: 27358

Re: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor

If they are truly risk averse enough to want a 60/40 portfolio in their investment accounts, why are they ALSO using the leverage of a mortgage? After all, an investor with $60k in stocks, $40k in bonds, a $100k house, and a $40k mortgage is ACTUALLY taking roughly the same OVERALL risk as someone ...
by bling
Sat Feb 27, 2021 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor
Replies: 542
Views: 27358

Re: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor

The other thing I'd say about the "general investing priority order" is that the investor should always be using their asset allocation as a gut check for where they are in the order: if you get to 40% in bonds in your market portfolio BEFORE you get to #9 on that list, you've probably ma...
by bling
Sat Feb 27, 2021 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor
Replies: 542
Views: 27358

Re: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor

Cash flows are not assets. They are cash flows. ETA : But, I am willing to sell you my future SS cash flows for $1.7 million. So I will have an asset. your expected future cashflow has an impact on your "ability, willingness, need" to take risk. if you wanted to retire with a $100k income...
by bling
Sat Feb 27, 2021 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do circuit breaker rules prevent UPRO from going to zero?
Replies: 19
Views: 1733

Re: Do circuit breaker rules prevent UPRO from going to zero?

It's interesting to me, that being short TBills to leverage long S&P 500, monthly rebalanced, had higher returns and lower standard deviation then UPRO PV Link this is more or less what it looks like to invest on margin. BIV is a bit too cheap, so i swapped in SHY instead. PV I wouldn't recomme...
by bling
Sat Feb 27, 2021 11:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Prepaying Mortgage Aggressively (Ramsey approach) vs. Investing
Replies: 140
Views: 10991

Re: Prepaying Mortgage Aggressively (Ramsey approach) vs. Investing

Let me ask you this, because I am curious on your thinking at this point . Your $500,000 example is OK. But image it is $2 M. If you are in a balanced portfolio (60/40), thus $800,000 in safe government bonds (low risk). Would paying your mortgage make sense to you at this point if at the same time...
by bling
Sat Feb 27, 2021 10:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is the strategy to live off taxable?
Replies: 6
Views: 1262

Re: What is the strategy to live off taxable?

turning off dividend reinvestment also makes tax loss harvesting much simpler.
by bling
Sat Feb 27, 2021 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do circuit breaker rules prevent UPRO from going to zero?
Replies: 19
Views: 1733

Re: Do circuit breaker rules prevent UPRO from going to zero?

JoMoney wrote: Sat Feb 27, 2021 10:24 am It's interesting to me, that being short TBills to leverage long S&P 500, monthly rebalanced, had higher returns and lower standard deviation then UPRO
PV Link
this is more or less what it looks like to invest on margin. BIV is a bit too cheap, so i swapped in SHY instead. PV