Search found 6364 matches

by market timer
Sat Apr 03, 2021 11:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career advice for high schooler with HFA & difficulty with math
Replies: 65
Views: 5985

Re: Career advice for high schooler with HFA & difficulty with math

Lots of good replies. As a fellow aspie, I'll highlight two. Yeah... She’s going to have to get over the social awkwardness factor if she wants to excel in any large part, even those “back of the house” IT type jobs. These days interfacing with people in some form is just a huge part in getting ahea...
by market timer
Sat Apr 03, 2021 9:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Curious about negative expat experiences -- why don't more people do it?
Replies: 111
Views: 10619

Re: Curious about negative expat experiences -- why don't more people do it?

Because you are already living in the best country in the world. I didn't realize the OP was living in Switzerland. :happy Overall Best Countries Ranking --- https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/overall-rankings All these rankings are like hospital or school rankings. One who works there know...
by market timer
Thu Apr 01, 2021 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: March 9th, 2020 - no bid for bonds / no offer for bonds
Replies: 22
Views: 2465

Re: March 9th, 2020 - no bid for bonds / no offer for bonds

I've seen some quotes of analysts saying there was no bid for bonds on 3/9/2020 and some quotes from analysts saying there was no offer for bonds on 3/9/2020. Does anyone know which it was? There were no offers. I was short bonds at the time and it was terrifying. Ultra bond futures closed at 222 o...
by market timer
Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:03 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Curious about negative expat experiences -- why don't more people do it?
Replies: 111
Views: 10619

Re: Curious about negative expat experiences -- why don't more people do it?

MangoMama wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:13 amit was extremely hard for the non-working spouse. 9 times of 10 assignments ended early because of the trailing spouse.
This is the most serious concern, in my view. If the assignment is just a year or two, it should be fine--like a long vacation for the trailing spouse.
by market timer
Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:42 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Curious about negative expat experiences -- why don't more people do it?
Replies: 111
Views: 10619

Re: Curious about negative expat experiences -- why don't more people do it?

As a foreign person living in the US, I would 1000x rather have my kids grow up and go to school in the US than where I came from. Educational resources are undoubtedly better in the US. Compared to developing nations in particular, US is far better at developing meaningful discussion and awareness...
by market timer
Tue Mar 23, 2021 7:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need career suggestions for adult son
Replies: 72
Views: 6615

Re: Need career suggestions for adult son

A therapist acquaintance of mine suspects that he may be on the autism spectrum, as he definitely prefers being alone to being with others, struggles with organization and is far from being a self-starter. This describes me well. One thing that made a dramatic improvement in my life was meeting my ...
by market timer
Mon Mar 22, 2021 12:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to Deal with Worry of job loss and providing for family?
Replies: 127
Views: 10269

Re: How to Deal with Worry of job loss and providing for family?

I waited to have kids until my net worth was 25x basic living expenses. Have gradually increased spending to maintain this 25x ratio over time.
by market timer
Thu Mar 18, 2021 8:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is the BEST thing you spent money on?
Replies: 242
Views: 23367

Re: What is the BEST thing you spent money on?

My philosophy is, if you have a nice mattress and laptop, that's like 80% of the day.
by market timer
Tue Mar 16, 2021 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different approach to asset allocation
Replies: 1514
Views: 749856

Re: A different approach to asset allocation

Being around wife and kids is PAIN. I don't remember "moments" with them. I remember "moments" of margin calls and significant ups and downs of my portfolio, when wife and kids just were around. When my wife was in labour, I was holding her hand, with a phone with brokerage app ...
by market timer
Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My leverage strategy - Thoughts?
Replies: 6
Views: 531

Re: My leverage strategy - Thoughts?

My thoughts:
1. In the grand scheme of things, $25K is immaterial--doesn't really matter whether you leverage it or not.
2. Now is not a great time to buy equities. Why didn't you do this a year ago?
by market timer
Tue Mar 16, 2021 12:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young
Replies: 1293
Views: 163547

Re: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young

And a few 100K's worth of short box spreads. This is a way to leverage on margin, but paying cheaper margin costs than IBKR's actual margin. It's also tax-deductible since the options produce capital losses. For the short box spread, it seems the choice of underlying security (S&P 500, gold, eu...
by market timer
Sun Mar 07, 2021 9:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Internal salary negotiation with significantly appreciated RSUs
Replies: 38
Views: 3188

Re: Internal salary negotiation with significantly appreciated RSUs

Assuming maximizing total compensation is the only goal, I'd reject the outside offer as not competitive with your current pay. They might come back with a more attractive offer. If not, I'd stay put for the next year, earning $500K + bonus, then start interviewing again in 9 months.
by market timer
Sun Mar 07, 2021 8:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retiring in 6 months (off TSLA options); Plan Review & Questions
Replies: 60
Views: 10507

Re: Retiring in 6 months (off TSLA options); Plan Review & Questions

Here is what I see if I let them naturally unwind: 2022 September Expiration and TSLA shares called away (Long term capital gain) $4.6m in taxable less LTCG $4.2m after tax 2021 Close out $3.36m less short term tax on 1m (-$370k) $3m roughly Of course, there is a third scenario worth modeling out: ...
by market timer
Sat Mar 06, 2021 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PSA: gold
Replies: 133
Views: 15074

Re: PSA: gold

market timer, If the real interest rate drop to negative 5%, what would the gold price should be as per your model? Thanks in advance. KlangFool The formula is described here: The formula I gave to value gold six months ago is holding up pretty well: P = 1800 * e ^ (-33 * r), where r is the 30-year...
by market timer
Sat Mar 06, 2021 12:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: High Earners - What's Your Profession?
Replies: 963
Views: 161372

Re: High Earners - What's Your Profession?

Tingting1013 wrote: Sat Mar 06, 2021 12:20 am
market timer wrote: Fri Mar 05, 2021 1:23 am Analytics and data science

Base: $300K
Bonus: $100K
RSU: $350K
Your RSUs still good after this week?

My annual RSUs hit $384k two weeks back.

Today they ended at $283k.

Live by the rocket ship, die by the rocket ship...
Indeed, tough fortnight for tech.
by market timer
Sat Mar 06, 2021 12:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: High Earners - What's Your Profession?
Replies: 963
Views: 161372

Re: High Earners - What's Your Profession?

Analytics and data science Base: $300K Bonus: $100K RSU: $350K Are you an individual contributor or in management? Also, how much of the RSU is grant vale vs. appreciation? I’m in DS at a pre-IPO and hoping the market can be frothy for a little while longer... Management, but not in the classic sen...
by market timer
Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retiring in 6 months (off TSLA options); Plan Review & Questions
Replies: 60
Views: 10507

Re: Retiring in 6 months (off TSLA options); Plan Review & Questions

I have unwound all of my TSLA that is in my retirement accounts as there were no tax implications. On the taxable side, I still have the same position and am still planning to ride it out. Below is from the original post around my holdings Taxable (unchanged) Pre-Retirement ($3m) 35.3% of Portfolio...
by market timer
Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retiring in 6 months (off TSLA options); Plan Review & Questions
Replies: 60
Views: 10507

Re: Retiring in 6 months (off TSLA options); Plan Review & Questions

roguewarrior0 wrote: Sun Feb 21, 2021 10:20 pmWith the TSLA, I will unwind in 6/2022 or if TSLA drops below $600, whichever comes first. I just can't take the hit on taxes.
With Tesla at $581, have you unwound the position? The covered call just got quite a bit riskier after the 30+% drop.
by market timer
Fri Mar 05, 2021 7:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 8659
Views: 843864

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I'm curious what low people expect TMF to drop to. I'm thinking the high teens, but that's not based on anything more meaningful than previous lows from 5+ years ago. I sold out of TMF in the mid $40s and bought back in, but with only around 10% of my HFEA allocation, in the mid $30s, so limited my...
by market timer
Wed Mar 03, 2021 8:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Big Raise: What to Do With It
Replies: 45
Views: 3433

Re: Big Raise: What to Do With It

The OP seems more about finding purpose in life, rather than what to do with money. It can be confusing when we move up a level on Maslow's hierarchy of needs. The things we struggled against have now been overcome and it is time to find new challenges and new reasons for anxiety. My suggestions/obs...
by market timer
Sat Feb 27, 2021 10:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 8659
Views: 843864

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Pardon my ignorance, but is there a way to capture the exposure to tlt/tmf through 30y treasury futures? It looks like from my models, that tlt/tmf would out perform a pure 30y treasury future with the same leverage. I can’t quite understand why this is. Thoughts? Have you factored into your analys...
by market timer
Sat Feb 27, 2021 10:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Have yields topped or are they going higher?
Replies: 30
Views: 2417

Re: Have yields topped or are they going higher?

If I look at a chart of 30-year yields for the past nine years, I see a range of 2.5-3.5% as being typical outside of recession years. We are emerging from a recession with a yield of 2.15%. My forecast is there is modest upside to long term yields from here. The major risk to long term bond holders...
by market timer
Mon Feb 22, 2021 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PSA: gold
Replies: 133
Views: 15074

Re: PSA: gold

Based on current conditions, perhaps a combination long gold + short bond trade is the way to play this. I just put on this trade a few minutes ago. Over medium to long term I agree with this, short term anything can happen. Inflation breakeven can decrease with bond yields. So far, so good: UBF21 ...
by market timer
Sat Feb 06, 2021 12:04 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio perspective and check up: $4.5M at 42, 80/20
Replies: 23
Views: 4345

Re: Portfolio perspective and check up: $4.5M at 42, 80/20

I’ve never participated in deferred comp because I don’t like the single company risk associated with it. I’d be interested to know if anyone is aware of any recent examples of a company being unable to fulfill its obligations as a cautionary tale, or if I’m just paranoid. Yes, I'd love to know how...
by market timer
Fri Feb 05, 2021 6:47 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I want to spend as much as possible between 55-70 in retirement
Replies: 39
Views: 4765

Re: I want to spend as much as possible between 55-70 in retirement

To illustrate: $2M portfolio = 100% Ps with $25k / year BTD $1.5M portfolio = 100% Ps with no BTD Ok, so now I have $500k to play with and I want to spend it all between 55-70. As a first approximation, you can spend $500K / 15 years = $33K/year (inflation-adjusted) on BTD using a risk-free TIPS la...
by market timer
Sun Jan 24, 2021 9:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can we retire at a young age?
Replies: 30
Views: 4623

Re: Can we retire at a young age?

For someone in early 30s, I'd recommend a 3% withdrawal rate. If you are spending $84K/year after tax, that works out to ~$100K/year needed pre-tax. So you should aim for $3.3M in investments outside of your primary real estate. You have $1.9M right now across brokerages and investment property, so ...
by market timer
Sun Jan 10, 2021 8:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Family Costs 1970s vs 2020s
Replies: 122
Views: 10199

Re: Family Costs 1970s vs 2020s

MIT is a good example of the changes which took place in college admissions. In 1971, less than 10% of MIT's student body was female. Today it's 50/50. The increase in women attending MIT has meant men are competing over a smaller share of the available slots than were available to them half a cent...
by market timer
Sat Jan 09, 2021 11:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Family Costs 1970s vs 2020s
Replies: 122
Views: 10199

Re: Family Costs 1970s vs 2020s

One of the more significant changes in the past 50 years has been the extension of adolescence into the mid/late-20s. You can see this clearly in the average age of first marriage. In 1970, the median age of first marriage was 23.2 (men) and 20.8 (women). In 2018, the same numbers are 29.8 (men) an...
by market timer
Sat Jan 09, 2021 8:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Family Costs 1970s vs 2020s
Replies: 122
Views: 10199

Re: Family Costs 1970s vs 2020s

One of the more significant changes in the past 50 years has been the extension of adolescence into the mid/late-20s. You can see this clearly in the average age of first marriage. In 1970, the median age of first marriage was 23.2 (men) and 20.8 (women). In 2018, the same numbers are 29.8 (men) and...
by market timer
Mon Jan 04, 2021 6:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I’m about to turn 18, how can I invest for maximum lifetime gains and where do I start?
Replies: 29
Views: 2132

Re: I’m about to turn 18, how can I invest for maximum lifetime gains and where do I start?

I remember the year 2003 well. Beginning of the bull market after 9/11 and Enron. Hard to believe we are now getting questions from people born in that year. My advice would be to focus on increasing income first, and worry about saving later. A long time ago, I was having dinner in a rich guy's hou...
by market timer
Sun Jan 03, 2021 2:06 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best way to go long value and short growth?
Replies: 6
Views: 667

Re: Best way to go long value and short growth?

I have this trade on right now in taxable: Long VTV and VBR, short QQQ calls. I prefer to short the QQQ calls rather than buy a short ETF like PSQ because I don't like the daily rebalancing of short ETFs. If value and growth both increase in value, the QQQ calls will generate losses that can offset ...
by market timer
Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best way to go long value and short growth?
Replies: 6
Views: 667

Re: Best way to go long value and short growth?

Would this be in a taxable account or IRA? You're likely to generate significant losses on one side of this trade, which opens the door to tax loss harvesting.
by market timer
Sat Jan 02, 2021 8:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will long-term treasuries remain a useful hedge at current interest rates?
Replies: 89
Views: 8488

Re: Will long-term treasuries remain a useful hedge at current interest rates?

Anything can be speculated on, I suppose, but the defining characteristic of US Treasury bonds is that they are the antithesis of speculative. If I want to be SURE of having $15,000 in February, 2042 then I know EXACTLY how many Treasury bonds I must buy today to ensure that outcome with near 100% ...
by market timer
Fri Jan 01, 2021 9:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where to get an adult IQ test?
Replies: 19
Views: 1548

Re: Where to get an adult IQ test?

You can use standard test scores like the SAT or GRE to get a pretty good idea of your IQ: https://www.iqcomparisonsite.com/SATIQ.aspx
by market timer
Thu Dec 31, 2020 10:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will long-term treasuries remain a useful hedge at current interest rates?
Replies: 89
Views: 8488

Re: Will long-term treasuries remain a useful hedge at current interest rates?

What's your view on this Bridge Water post , that they are predicting a negative correlation between inflation and real rate? With the assumption that FED will aim for zero nominal rate the in near future: Yes, this is another way of saying that monetary policy could be out of ammo when rates are a...
by market timer
Thu Dec 24, 2020 7:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are these good enough reasons to change jobs?
Replies: 51
Views: 4140

Re: Are these good enough reasons to change jobs?

Doesn't seem to me like you have any financial problems at the moment. The main issue seems to be a lack of growth potential. I wonder if you can find ways to grow outside of your job--hobbies, helping your kids with school, a side hustle, additional schooling. Sure, apply for other jobs and see if ...
by market timer
Mon Dec 21, 2020 8:04 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Time to reach 1M and 2M milestones
Replies: 195
Views: 73028

Re: Time to reach 1M and 2M milestones

The older I get, the more I come around to this way of thinking. However, I think I'd be crippled with anxiety using a 4% withdrawal rate starting at, say, 37. The possibility of working part-time not withstanding. Have you actually done this? Or are you still working? I left my job to become a sta...
by market timer
Thu Dec 10, 2020 2:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Structuring an executive compensation package
Replies: 24
Views: 2695

Re: Structuring an executive compensation package

For me and people I know (various exec level roles in tech companies) the salary is usually a small part of total comp. #1 pays for the lifestyle and some savings, #2 pays for fun stuff, and #3 makes you wealthy. Usually the ratio is that #1 and 2 are similar in size, and #3 is roughly an order of ...
by market timer
Wed Dec 09, 2020 9:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Structuring an executive compensation package
Replies: 24
Views: 2695

Re: Structuring an executive compensation package

For general background of package structure, you can't go wrong in reading actual offer letters to public CEOs, for example here's Marissa Mayer's offer to head up Yahoo back in 2012: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1011006/000119312512307595/d384719dex101.htm Or when Dara Khosrowshahi was ...
by market timer
Tue Dec 01, 2020 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PSA: gold
Replies: 133
Views: 15074

Re: PSA: gold

Based on current conditions, perhaps a combination long gold + short bond trade is the way to play this. I just put on this trade a few minutes ago. Over medium to long term I agree with this, short term anything can happen. Inflation breakeven can decrease with bond yields. So far, so good: UBF21 ...
by market timer
Mon Nov 30, 2020 8:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Re-entering the market in 2020
Replies: 24
Views: 2066

Re: Re-entering the market in 2020

As a general rule, I try to invest in equities up to the point where I don't care where the market goes. Invest too little, and I feel like I'm missing out if the market rallies. Invest too much, and I'll worry about a correction. It sounds like you are not invested enough. I'd suggest adding to you...
by market timer
Sun Nov 29, 2020 11:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PSA: gold
Replies: 133
Views: 15074

Re: PSA: gold

Based on current conditions, perhaps a combination long gold + short bond trade is the way to play this. I just put on this trade a few minutes ago. Nice! I hope that it will work out. Did you execute this using ETFs such as GLD and TBT? And do you have a defined exit point? I used futures: GCF21 (...
by market timer
Sun Nov 29, 2020 10:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PSA: gold
Replies: 133
Views: 15074

Re: PSA: gold

Here is a 10-year graph using the month-end inflation-adjusted price of gold and the predicted gold price based on the 30-year real rate. I used the monthly CPI numbers to make the inflation adjustment to the price of gold. How did you do the inflation adjustment? The peak in August 2011 should be ...
by market timer
Sun Nov 29, 2020 10:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PSA: gold
Replies: 133
Views: 15074

Re: PSA: gold

weltschmerz wrote: Sun Nov 29, 2020 10:37 pmBased on current conditions, perhaps a combination long gold + short bond trade is the way to play this.
I just put on this trade a few minutes ago.