Bogleheads.org

Clearly_Irrational

Dividend cuts are red but everything else looks the same. Dividend Cuts in the last six months: OCT 2015: 22 NOV 2015: 35 DEC 2015: 40 JAN 2016: 55 FEB 2016: 64 MAR 2016: 70 Anything over 20 is usually unhealthy with over 30 being a very bad sign. For comparison the worst part of the housing crisis ...

Clearly_Irrational

The host was predicting not just an economic downturn but a catastrophic, worldwide economic collapse the likes of which we haven't seen since the Great Depression. There are certainly some weird things going on with the economy but I don't claim to have enough knowledge to back a prediction of tha...

Clearly_Irrational

There are some signs that we're late cycle and that the bull market foundations are starting to erode but my crash indicator is still within normal bounds. If something is going to happen it would be later in the year. At the moment I'm twiddling my fingers and continuing to buy & hold.

Clearly_Irrational

Don't want to stir the pot, but... Scientific studies have not shown that changing diet and adding exercise leads to more sustained weight loss than just changing diet. Exercise to be fit. But just exercising without looking at your diet is very unlikely to lead to weight loss. Exercise without die...

Clearly_Irrational

you a misc brah? Gah, no. Stay out of the misc if you value your sanity, it's a cesspool. (Though amusing to read now and then) But going along these lines, most of the sub forums are pretty bad with little to no substance. If you enter the supplements section and ask for advice you will just get a...

Clearly_Irrational

The most important thing is not the total time, intensity, or type, but whether or not you enjoy it. I understand what you're saying but that doesn't match his objectives of "build muscle and lose the fat". For example, the typical old school plan of restrict calories + jogging would be a...

Clearly_Irrational

"Body Building"?? I don't think so (based on the credible thing I read) There is a big difference between the drug fueled Mr. Olympia contests and the average forum poster just trying to get in shape. Although the main site http://www.bodybuilding.com doesn't have much value, the forum si...

Clearly_Irrational

telling people what they want to hear -- that they are victims of the evil banks, credit card companies and other lenders who forced them to borrow more money than they could pay back, to buy stuff they could not afford; and it is NO fault of their own. I haven't listened to Dave in years, but that...

Clearly_Irrational

Getting off-tangent here, but knowing that people like Ramsey and Donald Trump, who are touted as amazingly successful businessmen, but who's initial big wealth came about via real estate, gets me wondering often if I'm missing out by not exploring real estate as a way to grow my wealth. Years ago ...

Clearly_Irrational

You're in the wrong place, check out forum.bodybuilding.com instead, but here's the cliffs notes version:

You MUST:

1) Control calories
2) Eat sufficient protein (0.82g/lb+) and fat (0.4g/lb+)
3) Lift weights

Other things may help but are optional.

Clearly_Irrational

For bonds if I could borrow cheap enough to buy 2yr TIPS and make a profit. For stocks, they'd have to pay me. For real estate at market rates as long as I can find properties that pencil out correctly and leave me enough income/emergency funds in case something goes wrong.

Clearly_Irrational

I've done a significant amount of work to determine a good timing strategy. As best I can tell after all that effort is that normal cycles can't be reliably timed in a way that improves returns net of taxes & fees over a simple buy & hold strategy. All of the indicators you need are too lagg...

Clearly_Irrational

The indicators I'm using for crash detection aren't necessarily the best ones for predicting stock market moves that don't involve crashes. For general use, I usually look at this model: http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2016/01/the-s-500-in-week-2-of-january-2016.html#.VqEEa_FnT68 http://1....

Clearly_Irrational

matjen wrote:I was wondering where you have been during this bit of market turmoil Clearly_Irrational. Thanks for the update on your indicators.

I still believe most bear markets aren't actionable, so far the current turmoil seems to be in that category.

Clearly_Irrational

My IPS contains a narrow provision for times when the active trading prohibition is lifted, but the current conditions don't match the requirements. At the moment I'm twiddling my fingers as usual. For anyone who cares, key indicators I'm watching: FED CHANGES - Green USSLIND - Green FRED RECESSION ...

Clearly_Irrational

So far my crash indicator doesn't agree with them.

Clearly_Irrational

It will be interesting to see what comes next for gold. Is there a price where you would get back in, or is it completely dependent on your interest rate outlook? It's strictly based on actual real interest rates, no projections allowed. IPS says no active trading authorized under current condition...

Clearly_Irrational

Just out of curiosity, how are you counting inflation? Which measure, and is it projected or using the recent past? 12 month rolling average of the year over year CPI-U index rates. I double check vs. the billion prices project for reasonableness. Also, why actually use a short-term Treasury bond f...

Clearly_Irrational

So I've been holding 20% gold for quite some time. My IPS rule is to hold gold when real interest rates are negative as making zero is better than a negative number. With the recent Fed rate increase and the falling inflation rate we're finally there. At some point in a previous thread I promised to...

Clearly_Irrational

My rule of thumb would go like this:

1) Max out your tax advantaged space
2) Pay down mortgage
3) Invest in taxable space

Clearly_Irrational

OP- Please also consider reading this book for knowledge before spending your hard earned money. The Personal MBA Personally I think I've learned plenty on my own, through work experience and my undergrad program, however I'm more interested in the HR Checkbox and resume signalling effects than the...

Clearly_Irrational

You should look into the Georgia WebMBA. I looked at every program in the country and settled on it. It can be completed in 18-months and is more reasonably priced than those you mentioned. You may want to check out geteducated.com and compare programs on the website. Although it's reasonably price...

Clearly_Irrational

I'm 60% through the Georgia WebMBA program. I love the format of the program. I work alongside 4 other students, in a cohort of approximately 40 people. I'm currently looking at Arizona State's online MBA, they have a similar cohort system and a nice lockstep class schedule that I like as well as b...

Clearly_Irrational

I wouldn't take an MBA from a non-accredited school, it would add little value and it would prevent you from taking it at a better school later if decided you needed it. As best I can tell MBAs come in four flavors: Awesome (money for nothing and chicks are free) - Top name brand school like Harvard...

Clearly_Irrational

I'd love to see something substantive that backs up these numbers. I think I was the first person to throw out tech in this thread, my wife is in tech, as are several of my friends, and their compensation (for their education and level of experience) isn't really comparable to any other field; stil...

Clearly_Irrational

Keenobserver wrote:the 1% number is meant for non degree holders who ventured out on their own not 1% of the entire population..

Well, as a percentage of all small business owners with more than one employee then yeah it's likely higher than 1%. Not sure what it would be though.

Clearly_Irrational

I would love see your stats. FRED data suggests the fraction of incorporated self employed persons compared to all employees is around 3.7% or so. Whatever the actual rate of people making $300k plus from small business ownership without a college degree, it's very likely to be less than that amoun...

Clearly_Irrational

If it was all rainbows and unicorns they wouldn't pay you to do it. Sure they would. They don't care how you feel about a job. What they care about is do they make money hiring you to do the work. The problem is the unicorn jobs tend to be either ones with a high barrier of entry (think rock star o...

Clearly_Irrational

Perhaps one can lower their expectations a little? -what you don't mind doing -what you are reasonably good at -what pays reasonably well That's what I use anyway. Sure, and that's what I've done. I picked a career I'm pretty good at that pays pretty well and I dislike it less than everything else ...

Clearly_Irrational

In general to really make big money you're looking at (in no particular order):

1) Doctor
2) Lawyer
3) Management
4) Sales
5) Self Employment or Business Ownership
6) Be a 1% superstar in some other field

Clearly_Irrational

furwut wrote:Everybody should do a Venn diagram composed of what they love doing, what they are good at doing and what pays enough to allow a decent living standard.

Sadly, as best I can tell there is no three way intersection on that diagram.

Clearly_Irrational

I finished reading millionaire next door and that made me wonder what that magic number net worth that puts people on wealthy side ? Well, in order to be "wealthy" I'd suggest you first need to be financially independent, so passive income > living expenses. To move from FI to Wealthy you...

Clearly_Irrational

To your point VT, I was reading along quite nicely, and then suddenly I was reading my own comment! Dang those old restarted threads. Well, at least I didn't necro my own thread. But CI has done us the favor of recycling the very same mistake I haven't re-run the Case Schiller numbers, but I suspec...

Clearly_Irrational

New housing compared to real median household income is getting more expensive: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?g=2rfj I'm not sure how that is sustainable. I mean sure, some of it is covered by the switch to two income families but we've blown way past the doubling mark so...

Clearly_Irrational

I've read quite a few of them, most stories I've read can be summed up like this: "I do X to make my money now, but I got my first couple of million in real estate" or "I do X to make money now, but I made my initial stake by starting and then selling my business" If you read onl...

Clearly_Irrational

You basically have four options: 1) Become even better at what you do now and switch jobs once or twice to get pay raises. This can probably get you up into the low six figures before you cap out again, but after that you'll be pretty much stuck. Additionally due to ageism in IT you may have trouble...

Clearly_Irrational

$2.1M in 2015 dollars. That's my minimum number. I'd still be "working" in that I'd have some minor oversight tasks of my portfolio and property management companies, and I'd likely be doing some things to increase my income but it wouldn't be my regular job. At $3M I wouldn't really be t...

Clearly_Irrational

The very concept of determining a company's fundamental value using market forces is becoming obsolete. I don't think so, it's just that fundamentals play out over longer time frames. “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” --Benjamin Graham

Clearly_Irrational

Dollars to donuts, most of the dividend cuts came from Energy based companies. Nothing to see here, keep investing. Hadn't looked at the breakdown by sector. That's interesting, I thought most of the energy company carnage was over at this point. Apparently some of them must have been more optimist...

Clearly_Irrational

Massive spike in corporate dividend cuts reported today, from 15 in August to 43 in September! (anything over 30 is quite bad) Other signals are still muted but they're on more of a reporting lag so it's possible they'll start deteriorating soon. No action to take at the moment, it's still too early...

Clearly_Irrational

stemikger wrote:They invest in productive businesses that add value to society.

Wait, they have to add value to society? That leaves out a hefty portion of the market right there.

Clearly_Irrational

Still, as with the Boglehead approach, trying to figure out when times are prosperous and when they are prosperous no longer, well that would be market timing. This is clearly irrational. ;-) So obviously if you were trying to identify tops and bottoms in the gold market that would definitely be ma...

Clearly_Irrational

In my opinion the real weakness of the PP is the static gold allocation. Gold is insurance like in nature and thus has a fairly high carrying cost. Holding it even when times are good is a significant drag on performance. Personally, I think the answer is to hold gold only when times are not prosper...

Clearly_Irrational

So you agree that the PE10 signal failed in the 90s. No, I just think that PE10, by itself, is not a sufficient reason to reduce your stock allocation. It's a signal that things are starting to get over-valued but it's not a good timing indicator in isolation. It was correct that stock valuations w...

Clearly_Irrational

Did you run the analysis in "real time" going along or using the full history at every point? I did both. You didn't specify what month of 1995, so for illustration I'll use June. At that time I would have been worried about values above 24. Following along in real time as the threshold a...

Clearly_Irrational

HomerJ wrote:We base AA on the need and willingness to take risk, not on what the market is doing.

I find the PE10 a reasonable indicator for when we're experiencing non-normal levels of risk but my own testing suggested that non-extreme values have little signaling power.

Clearly_Irrational

Extremes happen. 1929 happened. 1937 happened. The panic of 1907 happened. The stock market dropping 22% in one day in 1987 happened. Bonds beating stocks over a 30-year period happened. 2008-2009 happened. They are not typical. They are also not hit-by-a-meteorite rare. Not only do extremes happen...

Clearly_Irrational

If I were buying individual stocks then I would definitely use a reputation hit as a signal to examine the stock more closely. This doesn't really change their long term fundamentals that much so I'd start by downloading their 10-K and doing some analysis. That said, you shouldn't really be buying i...

Clearly_Irrational

It depends on what you pick as your starting date of course. In general buying stuff is cheaper, anything that involves regular payments is more expensive.

Clearly_Irrational

Or are you using an inverse ETF which is quite different from actually shorting, and, in my opinion, a fairly bad idea if you are planning to hold for more than a short time--see Inverse and leveraged ETFs . I had good luck with inverse ETFs, just stay away from the leveraged ones they don't track ...

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