Search found 1562 matches

by vitaflo
Fri May 07, 2021 11:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much do you trust FIRECalc?
Replies: 17
Views: 1970

Re: How much do you trust FIRECalc?

I use it as a "back of the napkin" calculator. IE, I mostly use it to see if I'm on the right track. I'm not looking to see if my success rate is 95% or 96%. I'm looking to see if it's 95% or 50%. I can then adjust my expectations accordingly. But I definitely use it as a course measuremen...
by vitaflo
Fri May 07, 2021 11:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: California Homebuying Insanity
Replies: 125
Views: 10637

Re: California Homebuying Insanity

The average working person should be able to afford to buy a home, and as a country I don’t know if we will ever get back to a place where that’s possible. There are plenty of places in america where the average working person can afford a home. That's not true where you live, but it is true in a l...
by vitaflo
Thu May 06, 2021 5:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: California Homebuying Insanity
Replies: 125
Views: 10637

Re: California Homebuying Insanity

+1 I think this is the answer to most "can I afford.."? You can get burned pretty badly in this type of RE mkt if it were to abruptly change, so you better be very sure you're in for the long haul. As someone else mentioned taking a 50% pay cut living elsewhere but getting the same sort o...
by vitaflo
Thu May 06, 2021 5:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: California Homebuying Insanity
Replies: 125
Views: 10637

Re: California Homebuying Insanity

Life is a series of choices and you need to decide what your priorities are and what you want the most. Is it a good school for the kid? Is it to live in the same city/state you are now? Is it to build equity and not "throw away" money by renting? Is it to keep your current job? When there...
by vitaflo
Mon May 03, 2021 6:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I sold off all my (modest) crypto holdings this morning
Replies: 85
Views: 9326

Re: I sold off all my (modest) cryto holdings this morning

Dunning-Kruger effect is pretty strong in these crypto threads. And from a board who's motto is "nobody knows nuthin", no less! I suppose that only applies to areas that bogleheads know a bit about. Well, one bogleheadism is "don't invest in things you don't understand". I suspe...
by vitaflo
Mon May 03, 2021 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does bitcoin solve the deflation problem?
Replies: 77
Views: 5182

Re: How does bitcoin solve the deflation problem?

I like bitcoin but I also have no idea how it will really work in practice with wider adoption, although I suspect it will even if there is nothing quite like it in the known universe. Some people advocate thinking of bitcoin as a store of value more akin to art than gold--capable of actual uniquen...
by vitaflo
Mon May 03, 2021 6:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I sold off all my (modest) crypto holdings this morning
Replies: 85
Views: 9326

Re: I sold off all my (modest) cryto holdings this morning

Dunning-Kruger effect is pretty strong in these crypto threads. And from a board who's motto is "nobody knows nuthin", no less! I suppose that only applies to areas that bogleheads know a bit about. Well, one bogleheadism is "don't invest in things you don't understand". I suspe...
by vitaflo
Mon May 03, 2021 4:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I sold off all my (modest) crypto holdings this morning
Replies: 85
Views: 9326

Re: I sold off all my (modest) cryto holdings this morning

My mom told me teenagers that work with her are buying crypto. Mostly first time foray into stocks for these youngsters. Quote that comes to mind: "Somebody gonna get hurt, real bad..." My best friend is an investment banker. He recently was asked by a neighbor who teaches high school eco...
by vitaflo
Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
Replies: 747
Views: 40506

Re: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?

That's my point. There simply is no region outside the US - possibly with the exception of Korea - that has an economy in any way comparable to ours in terms of being dynamic, creative, and transparent. Europe is sclerotic with rigid laws preventing businesses from responding to changes in the busi...
by vitaflo
Wed Apr 28, 2021 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
Replies: 747
Views: 40506

Re: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?

I would certainly hope US corporations would produce more revenue and profit than their ex-US counterparts, as the valuation of US stocks basically says they have to. Everyone saying ex-US has various disadvantages compared to US...well yeah, that's why the stocks are cheaper. But it's all relative....
by vitaflo
Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Moving Away from California - How Much Do You Save Retiring To a Low Cost Area?
Replies: 148
Views: 17545

Re: Moving Away from California - How Much Do You Save Retiring To a Low Cost Area?

But California is the only state with everything beaches, mountains, rivers, lakes, deserts, forests, and flat areas too. Something for everyone. These things, all of them, exist in WA and OR too... Let's add sunshine to the list of things California has. Unless you live in Eureka. Or if you want c...
by vitaflo
Tue Apr 27, 2021 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tesla exceeds expectations for Q1
Replies: 108
Views: 7867

Re: Tesla exceeds expectations for Q1

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/26/tesla-tsla-earnings-q1-2021-.html Revenue up by 74%. Yet after the announcement, TSLA was immediately down 2% in after hours trading. What does that mean? The company is still extremely overvalued if you look strictly at today. A $700 billion company sold 500,000 car...
by vitaflo
Mon Apr 26, 2021 5:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retirees: Nobody Cares About You
Replies: 10
Views: 1937

Re: Retirees: Nobody Cares About You

I'm really surprised that there is so little in the media about how retirees are being affected by the policy of keeping interest rates so low. I’m also really surprised that there has been so little in the media about how retirees have benefited so much from inflation being so low. It goes both wa...
by vitaflo
Mon Apr 26, 2021 9:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New Car Inventory - Change in Tactics?
Replies: 14
Views: 1973

Re: New Car Inventory - Change in Tactics?

Just curious of others' experience - do you find dealers more or less saying take it or leave it and pay MSRP? Based on everything I've read it looks like the inventory issue is not going away any time soon Dealers don't really make much money on the car itself anymore. The money comes from options...
by vitaflo
Sun Apr 25, 2021 12:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Moving Away from California - How Much Do You Save Retiring To a Low Cost Area?
Replies: 148
Views: 17545

Re: Moving Away from California - How Much Do You Save Retiring To a Low Cost Area?

WY: $82,907 Most states are a lower tax burden for us and many states are similar to each other. But note this assumes similar costs. While Wyoming would be much cheaper for us from a tax perspective (akin to needing ~$250k less in our portfolio to retire on) if we wanted to live in Jackson Hole ou...
by vitaflo
Sun Apr 25, 2021 10:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Moving Away from California - How Much Do You Save Retiring To a Low Cost Area?
Replies: 148
Views: 17545

Re: Moving Away from California - How Much Do You Save Retiring To a Low Cost Area?

I spent a bunch of time calculating tax burden on various states we have considered moving to. What I found is while there are certainly tax differences, the differences are highly dependent on how you spend. If you have an expensive house but low general spending then property tax will matter much ...
by vitaflo
Wed Apr 21, 2021 3:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Leaving Corporate for my own LLC
Replies: 22
Views: 1673

Re: Leaving Corporate for my own LLC

I've left the corporate world to start my LLC well over a decade ago, and while everyone's situation in this transition is different, here's my thoughts: - You are smart to have ramped up your biz before you decide to leave the corporate world. Many people don't and have a much harder time. You'll h...
by vitaflo
Wed Apr 21, 2021 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hit Millionaire Status! [Does anyone shift when they hit a milestone?]
Replies: 132
Views: 18311

Re: Hit Millionaire Status!

My question is did any of you shift when you hit a certain amount in retirement accounts to aggressively fund other goals. Paying off your house, funding college, investing in taxable account for money to fund early retirement, buy rental properties etc? May just be more of a feeling of change in p...
by vitaflo
Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why leasing a new car is always the best option even if you intend to keep it forever
Replies: 158
Views: 15441

Re: Why leasing a new car is always the best option even if you intend to keep it forever

Why do all this when you could just skip the middle man (and the depreciation man) and buy a 3 year old car for $15k? If you're planning on buying the 3 year old car when the lease is up anyway, why bother with the lease portion?
by vitaflo
Wed Apr 14, 2021 3:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How would you handle this? -- big utility company problem!
Replies: 68
Views: 4954

Re: How would you handle this? -- big utility company problem!

You live in frozen tundra basically. Even if you managed to cut the higher bill in half, it would still take you 3 years to break even on the upfront cost of the insulation Longer than that. OP doesn’t have a $170 gas bill in the summer. Insulation is also effective in the summer when running the A...
by vitaflo
Tue Apr 13, 2021 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International is in meltdown
Replies: 417
Views: 36813

Re: International is in meltdown

That pretty much sums it up the argument for why always international. There's no true answer there. The more interesting question is whether international makes sense this year in particular. I happen to think the dollar will downtrend later this year, which usually will make emerging markets more...
by vitaflo
Tue Apr 13, 2021 3:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Did you move for better weather? Did you regret it?
Replies: 188
Views: 19639

Re: Did you move for better weather? Did you regret it?

And if you love skiing, say, or windsurfing, it's best to live somewhere where you can ski or windsurf (or its not too taxing to get to either). Set those aside. If you are not happy with yourself, moving will not change things. This is what I've come to realize. We live in MN so if we moved litera...
by vitaflo
Wed Apr 07, 2021 3:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to resolve tax disagreement with my CPA?
Replies: 28
Views: 4453

Re: How to resolve tax disagreement with my CPA?

As my accountant says when we discuss tax law that seems to have a gray area, "there's a reason tax lawyers exist". The laws are not always black and white, as seems to be the case here. Usually if these kinds of situations come up with my accountant we discuss the rules on the books and a...
by vitaflo
Mon Apr 05, 2021 12:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: binoculars advise
Replies: 29
Views: 1754

Re: binoculars advise

I agree with others, do not buy 10x if you do not have a support for them (IE, something other than your hands). 8x is as high as you should go with handheld binoculars IMO.

I like the Vortex brand personally.
by vitaflo
Fri Apr 02, 2021 5:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you trust the current value of your portfolio?
Replies: 130
Views: 9563

Re: Do you trust the current value of your portfolio?

I've thought about this because it seems logical that if you would have reached your "number" during a market crash you would have had more than your number before the crash. So people almost always will reach their number on the upswing and of course that can cause concern if you get the...
by vitaflo
Fri Apr 02, 2021 5:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: WFH Light a "FIRE" in anyone else?
Replies: 20
Views: 3214

Re: WFH Light a "FIRE" in anyone else?

The people that love this are introverts. Don't disagree but the introverts will say that working in-person is remotely inefficient because there are too many distractions. It's almost as if everyone is different and we all have different ways to be the most productive and one size doesn't fit ever...
by vitaflo
Fri Apr 02, 2021 5:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you trust the current value of your portfolio?
Replies: 130
Views: 9563

Re: Do you trust the current value of your portfolio?

I've thought about this because it seems logical that if you would have reached your "number" during a market crash you would have had more than your number before the crash. So people almost always will reach their number on the upswing and of course that can cause concern if you get ther...
by vitaflo
Wed Mar 31, 2021 9:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: S-Corporation - Stockholders and Board of Directors Meeting
Replies: 6
Views: 298

Re: S-Corporation - Stockholders and Board of Directors Meeting

With my previous S-Corp, the partners just met privately once per year and jotted down the minutes. Nothing formal, no lawyers involved. We of course had a lawyer for lawyering-things but getting them involved for keeping minutes for a directors meeting was not part of that. For a small biz like our...
by vitaflo
Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In what condition, will international significantly overperform US?
Replies: 173
Views: 14070

Re: In what condition, will international significantly overperform US?

So I am trying to understand, outside of US currency losing its world reserve status, what other conditions will cause US to significantly underperform the world? The US is already starting to lose its reserve status in some ways. The reserve status was originally mostly tied to oil, and many count...
by vitaflo
Sun Mar 28, 2021 11:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Having Analysis Paralysis
Replies: 10
Views: 1223

Re: Having Analysis Paralysis

If there was ever a time to sell a house you don't need, now would be the time.
by vitaflo
Mon Mar 22, 2021 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Burry Hyper-Inflation Warning
Replies: 35
Views: 4034

Re: Michael Burry Hyper-Inflation Warning

He compares potential future US hyperinflation to German hyperinflation of the 1920's but I'm not sure why they would be related. Germany went into debt to fund world war I, and assumed they could pay off the debt by winning. Of course they lost that bet, and not only couldn't afford to pay off the ...
by vitaflo
Sat Mar 20, 2021 7:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: REAL ID now set to be effective May 3 2023 UPDATE
Replies: 130
Views: 9950

Re: REAL ID still set to be effective Oct 1 2021

When I got my Real ID driver's license, the documentation requirements to get the license were stringent. There were three separate lists of documents and you had to bring one from each of the three categories. This is exactly why I didn’t bother with real ID. It’s actually easier to just get a pas...
by vitaflo
Wed Mar 17, 2021 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule disputed (Again??!!)
Replies: 421
Views: 30606

Re: 4% rule disputed (Again??!!)

Here's the SWR (referred to as SAFEMAX) from the Pfau's analysis of international data that referred to in OP's article and by several posters. Just so everyone is on the same page. A few note: - Based on 50/50 stock/bond allocation - Worse years (SAFEMAX Year) clustered around 1937 - 1940 (WWII) a...
by vitaflo
Wed Mar 17, 2021 1:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How do you determine consulting hourly rate?
Replies: 15
Views: 1200

Re: How do you determine consulting hourly rate?

It's normal to double it. So if you're making $100k in salary, your rate would be $100/hr. I've been consulting for over a decade, and this is always the math I've used and it's worked out well for me. Of course the real answer is "as high as you can get away with" but doubling is pretty c...
by vitaflo
Wed Mar 17, 2021 12:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Network flaw allows SMS hijacking
Replies: 26
Views: 2136

Re: Network flaw allows SMS hijacking

Concerning. But for clarification, the hacker would have to know your phone number, where your account was held, and what your username was to get anywhere with this, right? If so, that's not impossible, but pretty unlikely. Which is why it can be a good idea to use different usernames for differen...
by vitaflo
Wed Mar 17, 2021 9:43 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How To Provide Feedback to Amazon About Their Website
Replies: 24
Views: 1958

Re: How To Provide Feedback to Amazon About Their Website

Most tech companies modify their UI/UX based on analytics and A/B testing in order to maximize revenue and engagement. Amazon taking away these totals from this view is most likely very deliberate. Telling them you want it back will mean nothing because they've already proven they are better off fin...
by vitaflo
Tue Mar 16, 2021 3:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much do you weigh your homes value in your retirement portfolio?
Replies: 107
Views: 8829

Re: How much do you weigh your homes value in your retirement portfolio?

If my home value were very expensive and my plan at retirement was to move into a house that was very not expensive, I may add the delta of those two values to my portfolio's value. Otherwise I wouldn't. It's about as simple as that.
by vitaflo
Tue Mar 16, 2021 3:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Work from Home - Most Tax Friendly States (Not Cost of Living)
Replies: 76
Views: 6132

Re: Work from Home - Most Tax Friendly States (Not Cost of Living)

It's probably Alaska, given there's no income tax, and everyone gets a dividend every year from the state. Of course, prices of goods is through the roof given the remote location, so taxes aren't everything.
by vitaflo
Mon Mar 15, 2021 6:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do SEP Iras not count as a tax break? Need some advice...
Replies: 22
Views: 1219

Re: Do SEP Iras not count as a tax break? Need some advice...

However, I will owe about $22k in federal taxes. (!!!) Given my income, does this seem right? I have savings, but I had thought that putting 20k into a SEP account would significantly lower the taxes due... it only lowered it by about $4k. I am wringing my hands at the thought of paying this massiv...
by vitaflo
Mon Mar 15, 2021 11:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do SEP Iras not count as a tax break? Need some advice...
Replies: 22
Views: 1219

Re: Do SEP Iras not count as a tax break? Need some advice...

However, I will owe about $22k in federal taxes. (!!!) Given my income, does this seem right? I have savings, but I had thought that putting 20k into a SEP account would significantly lower the taxes due... it only lowered it by about $4k. I am wringing my hands at the thought of paying this massiv...
by vitaflo
Sat Mar 13, 2021 1:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are your travel plans in 2021 and beyond?
Replies: 151
Views: 10113

Re: What are your travel plans in 2021 and beyond?

We're planning a 6-8 state road trip in early May through the Dakotas, Wisconsin, Kansas, Missouri, etc. South Dakota is the only state I haven't been to. We won't have our vaccines by then. The flight from LAX to ORD is only $98 return. It's the rental car that's killing us, even away from the air...
by vitaflo
Sat Mar 13, 2021 12:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are your travel plans in 2021 and beyond?
Replies: 151
Views: 10113

Re: What are your travel plans in 2021 and beyond?

No travel plans in 2021, the entire country is going to be a zoo with everyone traveling everywhere. We're waiting until 2022 when people have blown all their stimulus checks and the crowds have died down.
by vitaflo
Sat Mar 13, 2021 12:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Stimulus Check First and Second: Do I need to pay back with my 2020 tax return?
Replies: 4
Views: 719

Re: Stimulus Check First and Second: Do I need to pay back with my 2020 tax return?

The government does not claw back stimulus paid to you. If you were paid, you will not have to return it or pay taxes on it, even if you were technically not supposed to receive it. Count your blessings.
by vitaflo
Wed Mar 10, 2021 4:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Selling or Trading in an Old Computer
Replies: 27
Views: 2206

Re: Selling or Trading in an Old Computer

I always run my drives encrypted. When I go to sell I wipe them and of course set them as unencrypted for the new user. But since they were encrypted prior, if anyone is looking to somehow dig around in deleted data (infinitesimally small chance), they're only going to find encrypted data anyway and...
by vitaflo
Wed Mar 10, 2021 2:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it worth building your dream house?
Replies: 109
Views: 7086

Re: Is it worth building your dream house?

The OP does not contain the word "custom". I am also thinking there is quite a regional disconnect with regards to custom. My guess is when most people consider building their dream home, it's a custom build with rounds of architect designs and the like, not a modified builders plan. Prob...
by vitaflo
Wed Mar 10, 2021 2:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it worth building your dream house?
Replies: 109
Views: 7086

Re: Is it worth building your dream house?

The OP does not contain the word "custom". I am also thinking there is quite a regional disconnect with regards to custom. My guess is when most people consider building their dream home, it's a custom build with rounds of architect designs and the like, not a modified builders plan. Prob...
by vitaflo
Tue Mar 09, 2021 10:27 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying new car, need some advice
Replies: 38
Views: 3276

Re: Buying new car, need some advice

Most dealerships these days don't make money on the cars themselves, they make them on the options, financing and especially in the service center. As such they're more interested in selling as many cars as possible, instead of making the most on each car sold. So the typical negotiation process isn...
by vitaflo
Mon Mar 08, 2021 12:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 10 day road trip vacation around Lake Michigan
Replies: 31
Views: 2507

Re: 10 day road trip vacation around Lake Michigan

Personally, I would also replace Two Rivers, WI with another destination - perhaps a couple of days in Door County (though I would avoid it on weekends in the summer). Agreed, skip Two Rivers, go to Door County instead. A LOT more to do and see there, especially if you like hiking, nature, sight se...
by vitaflo
Wed Mar 03, 2021 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How crazy is it to hold 100% equities until retirement? (ERN)
Replies: 540
Views: 21966

Re: How crazy is it to hold 100% equities until retirement? (ERN)

I don't know if it's crazy, but the expectation that someone who is 100/0 for decades and has had success with it will suddenly go to something much more conservative at retirement does seem a little crazy. I would expect that person to enter retirement with a much more aggressive portfolio than is ...
by vitaflo
Wed Feb 24, 2021 10:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Thoughts or suggestions: upgrading from Honda Fit for DW's comfort on long road trips...
Replies: 40
Views: 1973

Re: Thoughts or suggestions: upgrading from Honda Fit for DW's comfort on long road trips...

I don't think the problem is the Fit; the problem is driving 800 miles a day on secondary roads (or interstates for that matter.) Dial it back to 200-300 or so and you're done. It's a road trip: the idea is to stop and look at things you find on the road along the way. Well, that's after the pandem...