Search found 8237 matches

by bertilak
Sat Apr 10, 2021 1:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do budgets work?
Replies: 78
Views: 2539

Re: Do budgets work?

Yes, it works. You can't manage what you don't measure. The crux. I use Quicken but ignore the budgeting aspect. I do measure very precisely. Quicken makes precise measurement workable as it is nearly all automated. This includes the upcoming month's spending. I can measure that before it happens b...
by bertilak
Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has Wellington fund changed its focus?
Replies: 4
Views: 453

Re: Has Wellington fund changed its focus?

I used to own Wellington and find this an interesting question. I found the following from Vanguard: VanguardWellington™ Fund Supplement Dated March 29, 2021, to the Statement of Additional Information Dated March 29, 2021 Important Change to VanguardWellington Fund Effective at the close of busines...
by bertilak
Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:33 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I cant find anything better than S&P
Replies: 50
Views: 3759

Re: I cant find anything better than S&P

Vtsax then chill? Isnt it literally same as vfiax historically? Not according to portfoliovisualizer. What is better? See my chart above (https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=5933353#p5933353). You can decide for yourself if one is better than the other. Isnt it essentially the same? Th...
by bertilak
Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I cant find anything better than S&P
Replies: 50
Views: 3759

Re: I cant find anything better than S&P

My vote: Total US Stock Market Index and chill. Vtsax then chill? Isnt it literally same as vfiax historically? Not according to portfoliovisualizer. What is better? See my chart above (https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=5933353#p5933353). You can decide for yourself if one is better ...
by bertilak
Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I cant find anything better than S&P
Replies: 50
Views: 3759

Re: I cant find anything better than S&P

Do you guys have any other suggestion where to put money? A total stock market index fund is broader and includes some some small and mid cap stocks in addition to all the S&P 500 stocks. A total stock market index fund is generally considered to be a better choice even though it is something l...
by bertilak
Fri Apr 09, 2021 8:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I cant find anything better than S&P
Replies: 50
Views: 3759

Re: I cant find anything better than S&P

Do you guys have any other suggestion where to put money? A total stock market index fund is broader and includes some some small and mid cap stocks in addition to all the S&P 500 stocks. A total stock market index fund is generally considered to be a better choice even though it is something l...
by bertilak
Wed Apr 07, 2021 3:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How should I invest cash just sitting in the bank?
Replies: 27
Views: 3960

Re: How should I invest cash just sitting in the bank?

I struggled with the same problem when I first started investing in 2012. I had just transferred everything to Vanguard and got my Roth IRA started, but was very hesitant about making Taxable investments due to what the market was doing. Here's what it looked like in the spring of 2012: https://i.p...
by bertilak
Tue Apr 06, 2021 4:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Self-managed 3 Fund or Life Strategy vs Vanguard PAS for 80 year old
Replies: 12
Views: 1164

Re: Self-managed 3 Fund or Life Strategy vs Vanguard PAS for 80 year old

If your father is 80 you must also be getting up in years so I suggest not taking on too much responsibility. You must have other responsibilities to take care of or interests to pursue. This leads me to favor the PAS option.
by bertilak
Tue Apr 06, 2021 11:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Any 3 fund portfolio folks hedging on Total Bond?
Replies: 8
Views: 793

Re: Any 3 fund portfolio folks hedging on Total Bond?

My 50% allocation to bonds is hedged by a 50% allocation to stocks and has been for many years. I expect that allocation to meet my needs for the next many years. The idea that you have to do something in investing is dangerous, and you know that. The particular idea of exchanging total bond for CD...
by bertilak
Tue Apr 06, 2021 10:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Re-balancing tutorial
Replies: 14
Views: 1190

Re: Re-balancing tutorial

Greetings- Is there a easy to understand reading or tutorial on re-balancing? I was set to shift my investments to the 3 fund approach: VTSAX; VTIAX; & VBTLX or VSIGX. I googled read a few articles on re-balancing but it sounds more complicated than I thought, although I read in here that it is...
by bertilak
Tue Apr 06, 2021 10:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Choosing a Supplement G Medicare Company
Replies: 15
Views: 1206

Re: Choosing a Supplement G Medicare Company

In Oregon it is possible to switch to a lower level plan without underwriting. It also depends on the company. I had Plan N with Blue Cross/Blue Shield (BCBS). They would not let me switch from Plan N to Plan F without going through underwriting. Talking to Humana (where I had my Part D) I learned ...
by bertilak
Tue Apr 06, 2021 9:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Choosing a Supplement G Medicare Company
Replies: 15
Views: 1206

Re: Choosing a Supplement G Medicare Company

In Oregon it is possible to switch to a lower level plan without underwriting. It also depends on the company. I had Plan N with Blue Cross/Blue Shield (BCBS). They would not let me switch from Plan N to Plan F without going through underwriting. Talking to Humana (where I had my Part D) I learned ...
by bertilak
Mon Apr 05, 2021 5:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?
Replies: 120
Views: 9152

Re: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?

(lots of stuff) I will agree to disagree on this. I no longer have the interest or energy to beat around this bush. Life goes on! EDIT: Ok, I will add one thing. Going back to an earlier post of mine: "I do not think that word (volatility) means what you think it means." I will stipulate ...
by bertilak
Mon Apr 05, 2021 5:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?
Replies: 120
Views: 9152

Re: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?

Further analysis: Yes, DCA does get you an average price which is guaranteed to be less than (or equal to) the highest price. It is also guaranteed to be greater than (or equal to) the lowest price. BUT that says nothing about being less than or greater than the LSI price, which is the comparison t...
by bertilak
Mon Apr 05, 2021 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Staying the course means buying your AA despite the "conversation in the marketplace"
Replies: 34
Views: 3776

Re: Staying the course means buying your AA despite the "conversation in the marketplace"

Personally buying my AA every month is easy. That's the ratio set in my employer plan and that's where the monthly contributions are going into. It's re-balancing that takes some stomach (re-balancing into stocks early last April convinced me I can follow my AA, something I'm glad to finally know I...
by bertilak
Mon Apr 05, 2021 3:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?
Replies: 120
Views: 9152

Re: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?

I don't get why you have such a problem with the fact that volatility has been a stand-in for risk in financial terms. The main "problem" is the proposition that purchase price effects volatility but that is not MY problem. I don't think he says that. I think he says the opposite. Volatil...
by bertilak
Mon Apr 05, 2021 1:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?
Replies: 120
Views: 9152

Re: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?

The endless arguments about Lump Sum vs. DCA are not framing the issue properly. You just added $500k to your portfolio. Right now it is in cash. Your AA is not the 90/10 you say you want, and what you had, but it is now 40/60 and the real issue is how do you propose to rebalance. This is how Const...
by bertilak
Mon Apr 05, 2021 12:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?
Replies: 120
Views: 9152

Re: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?

Speaking of financial risks there are many different sources. They all generate volatility (of returns). If they didn't, we wouldn't care about them. Anyway, I suspect that I'm wasting my time here. “You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.” -Inigo Montoya I don't ...
by bertilak
Sun Apr 04, 2021 11:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?
Replies: 120
Views: 9152

Re: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?

Thesaints wrote: Sun Apr 04, 2021 9:02 pm Speaking of financial risks there are many different sources. They all generate volatility (of returns). If they didn't, we wouldn't care about them.
Anyway, I suspect that I'm wasting my time here.
“You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.” -Inigo Montoya
by bertilak
Sun Apr 04, 2021 3:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?
Replies: 120
Views: 9152

Re: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?

Yes, insurance is used to put the risk of a bad outcome on someone else but I see no reason to call that risk volatility. Perhaps volatility is a kind of risk, a kind that can even be insured against (see annuity), but not all risk is volatility. Risk and volatility are synonyms in finance. Actuall...
by bertilak
Sun Apr 04, 2021 11:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?
Replies: 120
Views: 9152

Re: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?

Am I being trolled? What kind of logic is this? The potential investment outcomes are not discrete, they are contiguous — and even if they were, it makes no difference in the conclusion. Of course it could be higher or lower, the point is that more often than not you are ahead lump summing.... typi...
by bertilak
Sun Apr 04, 2021 9:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?
Replies: 120
Views: 9152

Re: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?

I suspect that you, just like I am, may be more interested in your own return rather than in someone else’s. Your return is the difference (or the ratio) between present valuation and how much you paid for those securities. Present valuation is the same, regardless of whether you are an LS, or a DC...
by bertilak
Sun Apr 04, 2021 8:11 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tankless Water Heater - Struggling to Justify
Replies: 71
Views: 5845

Re: Tankless Water Heater - Struggling to Justify

Having just made it through a winter storm that froze both of our tankless heaters, I'd never get one. (For some reason they are installed on the outside of the house.) A large tank heater will also provide a source of clean drinking water during a disaster. I have had a tankless heater (Rinnai) fo...
by bertilak
Sun Apr 04, 2021 12:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?
Replies: 120
Views: 9152

Re: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?

You still don't seem to understand. Let's try again: An investor's return depends on the price paid when buying stocks. I think even you won't have issues with this statement. The more price paid is a volatile quantity, the more return will be volatile. An LS investors picks a single price, a DCA i...
by bertilak
Sat Apr 03, 2021 12:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?
Replies: 120
Views: 9152

Re: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?

Why does one or the other always have to win or be the best ... Sometimes DCA "wins" and sometimes LSI "wins." We don't know which it will be ahead of time so we should play the odds and that tells us our best bet is LSI. The deck favors the house but if you count cards sometime...
by bertilak
Sat Apr 03, 2021 11:43 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tankless Water Heater - Struggling to Justify
Replies: 71
Views: 5845

Re: Tankless Water Heater - Struggling to Justify

I justified it in two ways, which probably do no apply to most people: 1. I was building a new house so, even though the tankless heater was expensive, it didn't make much difference to my mortgage payment. In other words, cost wasn't much of a consideration. 2. Floor space was limited: No basement ...
by bertilak
Sat Apr 03, 2021 10:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?
Replies: 120
Views: 9152

Re: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?

Peculiar_Investor wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 7:54 am Why does one or the other always have to win or be the best ...
Sometimes DCA "wins" and sometimes LSI "wins."

We don't know which it will be ahead of time so we should play the odds and that tells us our best bet is LSI.
by bertilak
Fri Apr 02, 2021 7:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?
Replies: 120
Views: 9152

Re: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?

I believe Thesaints is saying that replacing one large bet (LSI) with a sequence of smaller bets (DCA) is less risky. Where, then, does the intuitive rationale of DCA fail? Its rationale is that the investor replaces one major gamble on a temporary shift of prices by a number of smaller gambles and ...
by bertilak
Fri Apr 02, 2021 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Useless Investment Books
Replies: 106
Views: 9027

Re: Useless Investment Books

KlangFool wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:02 pm Grasshopper,

If you had learned that some books are useless, you had learned something. Then, how could you claimed that the books are useless?

KlangFool
Maybe useless for their intended (or purported) purpose.

Instead of learning a lesson you learn a meta-lesson!
by bertilak
Fri Apr 02, 2021 12:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?
Replies: 120
Views: 9152

Re: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?

You are thinking about the previous prices, i.e. the prices during the acquisition phase. After both investor are invested, prices matter only in terms of absolute returns, but not in terms of differential return between the two investors. Your statements are nonsensical because as I showed in the ...
by bertilak
Fri Apr 02, 2021 12:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: just getting started
Replies: 5
Views: 441

Re: just getting started

If you are just getting started you should probably take a look at the Wiki's Getting Started page. That's pretty general so you might want to skip ahead to the Wiki's Three Fund Portfolio page or the massive forum discussion about it at Three Fund Portfolio . The basic points are: Diversify . Use a...
by bertilak
Wed Mar 31, 2021 10:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?
Replies: 120
Views: 9152

Re: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?

Even with DCA the money stays on the table so you are making that all-in bet every day -- right up to the end of the DCA period and beyond. You really need to read the paper to be sure that point, among others, isn't already covered. No. Money not invested is in cash, i.e. “safe”. As I said, the pa...
by bertilak
Wed Mar 31, 2021 5:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?
Replies: 120
Views: 9152

Re: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?

I had a friend with this same problem due to a company selling. about 300k. in early 2016. i recommended lump but he was horrified. I convinced him to lump sum half and DCA the other half. A couple of legitimate DCA benefits, both for those who are unsure of their choices: DCA can get the hesitant ...
by bertilak
Wed Mar 31, 2021 5:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?
Replies: 120
Views: 9152

Re: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?

One quick summary might be: It is a fallacy to think that many small bets are safer than one large bet. The casinos love people who embrace that idea. That would actually be a quick and mathematically wrong summary: Analyze the risk of gambling your entire net worth on a single coin toss vs. the ri...
by bertilak
Wed Mar 31, 2021 4:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?
Replies: 120
Views: 9152

Re: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?

It is simple math: if you split your purchase across N different prices, your volatility is lower than if you select any one single price. In particular DCA makes you avoid the possible worst results. This is absolutely unassailable and I'm surprised at the resistance many put up. Actually, the mat...
by bertilak
Wed Mar 31, 2021 12:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?
Replies: 120
Views: 9152

Re: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?

... Welcome! Lump sum mathematically wins, but not always psychologically (like Bertilak mentioned Larry Swedroe, while Morgan Housel on the behavioral finance side would forgive you for doing DCA) You could lump sum half of it and DCA the rest if it helps allay your fears. I should add that even t...
by bertilak
Wed Mar 31, 2021 11:33 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?
Replies: 120
Views: 9152

Re: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?

DCA’s function is to lower volatility, not to “outperform”. The articles quoted are not worrh the paper they are printed on. Any lowered volatility from DCA does not deliver as promised. See Vanguard's paper Dollar-cost averaging just means taking risk later . On average, we find that an LSI approa...
by bertilak
Wed Mar 31, 2021 10:38 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?
Replies: 120
Views: 9152

Re: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?

... Welcome! Lump sum mathematically wins, but not always psychologically (like Bertilak mentioned Larry Swedroe, while Morgan Housel on the behavioral finance side would forgive you for doing DCA) You could lump sum half of it and DCA the rest if it helps allay your fears. I should add that even t...
by bertilak
Wed Mar 31, 2021 9:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?
Replies: 120
Views: 9152

Re: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?

Please see Larry Swedroe's recent (yesterday) article on this Dollar-Cost Averaging: The Lesser Of 2 Evils . One of the most popular myths is that the best way to address the volatility of the stock market is to dollar-cost average. The academic research demonstrates that it is not likely to produce...
by bertilak
Tue Mar 30, 2021 5:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio advise please
Replies: 13
Views: 1154

Re: Portfolio advise please

dbr wrote: Tue Mar 30, 2021 8:13 am Why do you want to DCA?
Perhaps it is a terminology thing.

I think many call periodic paycheck investing DCA. I usually assume that's what is meant unless there is some indication of holding back money and tricking it in to investments.
by bertilak
Sun Mar 28, 2021 11:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 5070
Views: 1322934

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

If I were to recommend additional reading, I would go outside the box. I enjoyed three of Peter L. Bernstein's books I bought as a set: Against the Gods Capital Ideas The Power of Gold . Especially the first one. A Jewish scholar I happened to be sitting next to on a flight noticed me reading Again...
by bertilak
Sun Mar 28, 2021 5:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: AAA - American Auto Assn - Service has gone way down
Replies: 90
Views: 7478

Re: AAA - American Auto Assn - Service has gone way down

I think the important difference between the various road service options are: How quickly they get to you. How far will they tow. In my experience AAA is best for number 1 and, if you pay for the "Plus" service, for number 2 as well. This is in comparison to Mobil's service, who took fore...
by bertilak
Sun Mar 28, 2021 5:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Geico or Progressive auto insurance?
Replies: 37
Views: 3334

Re: Geico or Progressive auto insurance?

I had a bad experience with Progressive. This is as someone who had to collect from them due to their policy holder being at fault in a collision with me. Within about a year I was TWICE rear-ended in stop and go traffic so have a basis for comparison. The first time the insurance company's adjuster...
by bertilak
Fri Mar 26, 2021 10:40 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: TV size question
Replies: 105
Views: 5774

Re: TV size question

We have 55 inch (older LCD) at about 10-11 feet. I will go to 65 next upgrade (4K OLED or QLED or whatever is optimal in about a year).

Is OLED going away? QD-OLED?
by bertilak
Fri Mar 26, 2021 10:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why, just why?! (American Century proposal)
Replies: 32
Views: 3503

Re: Why, just why?! (American Century proposal)

These pie charts do not show funds, do they? They show an asset allocation that could be made from just a few funds? Does anybody remember the posts where folks showed the asset allocation of a Vanguard PAS plan wcih showed that a US Total Market fund was really divided into 3 or 4 sub allocations ...
by bertilak
Thu Mar 25, 2021 3:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: debating with my friend about stock/bond ratio
Replies: 23
Views: 2113

Re: debating with my friend about stock/bond ratio

sidwin516 wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 11:54 am he said if u retire and u have a good bit of cash to live off on, you should keep it at 80/20 when i said probably closer to 40/60.
A "good bit of cash" means his 80/20 really isn't 80/20.
by bertilak
Wed Mar 24, 2021 5:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [What TV Show Have You Recently Watched?]
Replies: 2743
Views: 273383

Re: [What TV Show Have You Recently Watched?]

Jean-Claude Van Johnson , 2016, Prime Video, starring (who else) Jean-Claude Van Damme You gotta give Van Damme credit for being the brunt of most of the jokes. Example: JCVD and his lady friend are looking for a hideout to practice their martial arts skills. They come upon an abandoned Blockbuster...
by bertilak
Tue Mar 23, 2021 4:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [On-going Scams - Post them here]
Replies: 452
Views: 32873

Re: [On-going Scams - Post them here]

Did you actually go to a website/address that *they* gave you and click (click on "unsubscribe" or click on anything there) ? And before verifying precisely who "they" were? That isn't recommended, to put it mildly. You may have already downloaded some malware, etc. Yup, out of ...
by bertilak
Tue Mar 23, 2021 3:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 5070
Views: 1322934

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

I have cotton to the point where I have read enough finance and investing books that I am not so sure I am gaining much of anything for a stay the course total market investor. Does anyone ever feel this as well? Tony For some time now. A while back, in a moment of weakness, I bought The Psychology...
by bertilak
Tue Mar 23, 2021 3:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Interesting retirement strategy
Replies: 45
Views: 5504

Re: Interesting retirement strategy

As a retiree I look it it as the "next N years are ALWAYS the first N years of the rest of your retirement" and see nothing special about the first N years of your whole retirement, other than perhaps you are a bit more spooked when you first hear about "sequence of returns risk."