Search found 43139 matches

by nisiprius
Tue Aug 03, 2021 8:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wellington fund
Replies: 5
Views: 656

Re: Wellington fund

1) The impression that it "took off like a rocketship post 2008" is an artifact of using a linear scale instead of a logarithmic scale. Change to a log scale and the three lines become almost parallel. 2) Your portfolio is only 89% stocks. Wellington is 65% stocks, which is not a lot more ...
by nisiprius
Tue Aug 03, 2021 12:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Your opinions: VTI or VOO?
Replies: 18
Views: 1467

Re: Your opinions: VTI or VOO?

The most important thing here is that it can't make much difference. The S&P 500 represents 80% of the market, there simply can't be a huge difference between the S&P 500 and the whole market. Furthermore, the stocks that aren't in the S&P 500 have had an 87% correlation with the stocks ...
by nisiprius
Tue Aug 03, 2021 12:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How long did it take you to get from 500k to 1M?
Replies: 46
Views: 4682

Re: How long did it take you to get from 500k to 1M?

Twelve years. Story similar to renega's. Total of dollar numbers as listed on statements. It includes ongoing contributions and savings made during that time period. It does not include the value of our house. During the twelve-year period I bought some single premium immediate annuities and I inclu...
by nisiprius
Tue Aug 03, 2021 7:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Even The Most Elite Investors Do Dumb Things When Investing--NPR
Replies: 18
Views: 2606

Re: Why Even The Most Elite Investors Do Dumb Things When Investing--NPR

The article says "And the basic theory they land on is these investors spend much more brain energy on buying stocks than selling them." it is easy to infer that asset managers could, in fact, beat the market if only they focussed more on the selling decisions. But it is at least possible ...
by nisiprius
Tue Aug 03, 2021 7:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Treasury Bond Funds - active or passive?
Replies: 11
Views: 1182

Re: Treasury Bond Funds - active or passive?

Why not just use a TIPS fund or ETF? I split my fixed income 50/50 intermediate term treasuries (SCHR) and intermediate term TIPS (SCHP). Because of an endlessly-debated topic regarding the lack of a single maturity date in a standard fund. Imagine an individual bond. Imagine charting its market va...
by nisiprius
Tue Aug 03, 2021 6:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VG Removing Message Center [Vanguard]
Replies: 480
Views: 27565

Re: VG Removing Message Center [Vanguard]

What do Vanguard's competitors current provide for email-like text messaging? Oddly enough I still have a working login at Fidelity NetBenefits account (former employer's 401k) although I long since withdrew everything in it and it just says "account information temporarily unavailable." B...
by nisiprius
Mon Aug 02, 2021 5:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Gliding down at the wrong time: Target date decisions
Replies: 22
Views: 2013

Re: Gliding down at the wrong time: Target date decisions

namajones, you need numbers on this, not just words. For example, you say "some of them glide down pretty quickly in the last 5 years or so." Which funds and how quickly? The biggest stock market event since inception of the Target Retirement funds has been the global financial crisis of 2...
by nisiprius
Mon Aug 02, 2021 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VG Removing Message Center [Vanguard]
Replies: 480
Views: 27565

Re: VG Removing Message Center [Vanguard]

...I just received an answer to the question I posed to Vanguard via email... I agree completely that the rep who answered the question deserved all fives. As to the actual content of the answer... Thank you for taking the time to contact us about shoelaces not being included with some Psyche shoes...
by nisiprius
Mon Aug 02, 2021 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VG Removing Message Center [Vanguard]
Replies: 480
Views: 27565

Re: VG Removing Message Center [Vanguard]

Another factor to be considered is that Vanguard's so-called "support" system sucks. Let's try a few experiments. I'm going to formulate some questions that I can imagine really asking. 1) What's the minimum purchase for Admiral shares of the Inflation-Protected Securities fund? 2) What da...
by nisiprius
Mon Aug 02, 2021 5:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VG Removing Message Center [Vanguard]
Replies: 480
Views: 27565

Re: VG Removing Message Center [Vanguard]

What bothers me a lot is a) the clumsy way this was done, and b) the feeling that it is part of a pattern . The pattern is the abrupt withdrawal of a service provided for decades, with almost no advance notice, no coherent explanation, and no alternative suggested. I perceive a disrespectful "t...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 01, 2021 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happens to BND when the fed starts to taper?
Replies: 27
Views: 3390

Re: What happens to BND when the fed starts to taper?

Vanguard says Total Bond "may be appropriate for investors with medium-term investment horizons (4 to 10 years)." So far, there has never been a 48-month period in which Total Bond has lost money. (Not since the inception of BND in 4/30/2007, not since the inception of the mutual fund, VBM...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 01, 2021 7:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I utilize M1 Finance's 2% borrowing rate for leverage?
Replies: 29
Views: 2447

Re: Should I utilize M1 Finance's 2% borrowing rate for leverage?

1) Some new investors may be overestimating their risk tolerance if they are using 2020 as their measuring stick. From 8/31/2000, it took Total Stock over five years to get back to even. From 10/31/2007, over three years. From 2/14/2020, six months. 2007-2009 was marked by collapse after collapse af...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 01, 2021 3:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Father intends to have no will. He will use named beneficiaries on accounts to distribute assets to heirs. Is this wise?
Replies: 106
Views: 8693

Re: Father intends to have no will. He will use named beneficiaries on accounts to distribute assets to heirs. Is this w

The only way to find out if it is a sound strategy is to pay an estate lawyer to review the situation and give an opinion on whether it is a sound strategy.
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 01, 2021 3:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 5300
Views: 1360730

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Your mention of the Alamo myth and of San Jacinto brought to mind a story about Lyndon Johnson: When she was working with Johnson on his memoirs, [Biographer Doris Kearns] Goodwin said, she summoned the courage one day to ask [LBJ} why he had so often told people that his grandfather had died at the...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 01, 2021 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what is the purpose of bonds as investment? They suck, no?
Replies: 72
Views: 7372

Re: what is the purpose of bonds as investment? They suck, no?

babystep wrote: Sun Aug 01, 2021 11:12 amIs it reasonable to expect that bonds will beat the inflation by 1-2% for long-term say 30 years?
No, afraid not. Historically, they have more often than not but not always.

Image
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 01, 2021 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VG Removing Message Center [Vanguard]
Replies: 480
Views: 27565

Re: VG Removing Message Center [Vanguard]

Not sure why this is getting off topic discussing Vanguard the fund manager which has not much to do with Vanguard the consumer brokerage company. I buy VTI at Schwab and I get 24/7 customer service and chat support as need for no cost. In my case, the unexpressed connecting train of thought was, &...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 01, 2021 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VG Removing Message Center [Vanguard]
Replies: 480
Views: 27565

Re: VG Removing Message Center [Vanguard]

So these days, we are pretty much down to "I just like the way Vanguard does things," "seem like a straight outfit," "I just like the cut of their jib," "bronze statue of John C. Bogle on their campus." Brand preference. Fan loyalty. That's pretty fragile. Ag...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 01, 2021 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VG Removing Message Center [Vanguard]
Replies: 480
Views: 27565

Re: VG Removing Message Center [Vanguard]

...The idea that Vanguard is the low cost leader has just been marketing for several years now... I agree. We are now at the stage where the strongest claim you can make about Vanguard's broad index funds would be the classic advertising language, "nobody has better index funds than Vanguard.&...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 01, 2021 7:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what is the purpose of bonds as investment? They suck, no?
Replies: 72
Views: 7372

Re: what is the purpose of bonds as investment? They suck, no?

Has OP read the Wiki? Have you read A Boglehead's Guide to Investing? I cannot see how either is possible. (Shrug) We are getting many postings from people who seem unfamiliar with the the Bogleheads investment philosophy . I can't tell who's a troll and who isn't, so I shrug and play it straight. ...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 01, 2021 6:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what is the purpose of bonds as investment? They suck, no?
Replies: 72
Views: 7372

Re: what is the purpose of bonds as investment? They suck, no?

...The return on bonds ... have been historically very lame, barely keeping up with inflation... I'd like to know, seriously, if you can remember where you got that idea. Did you actually look up numbers somewhere or did you just repeat some facile thing somebody said to you? There are many time pe...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 31, 2021 8:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Which of these portfolios is best? (more int'l but higher fees?)
Replies: 6
Views: 588

Re: Which of these portfolios is best? (more int'l but higher fees?)

International exposure is an endlessly debated topic here, so the first thing is to make a decision for yourself about how important you think it is, and how much you want. My personal feeling is that an 0.71% expense ratio is too high just to get international exposure. If you can feel like it, you...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 31, 2021 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VG Removing Message Center [Vanguard]
Replies: 480
Views: 27565

Re: VG Removing Message Center [Vanguard]

...When the Bogleheads have their annual gathering, does Vanguard still host a tour?... As of the last one in 2019, yes. There was an event at Vanguard, in the same format as the others I've attended. I wouldn't quite call them "tours" as the only things we saw were the interior of an aud...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 31, 2021 7:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why are these two index funds rated differently
Replies: 12
Views: 1204

Re: Why are these two index funds rated differently

I think Morningstar star ratings are a good way of comparing past performance . The problem is that past performance doesn't predict future performance. The reason why I think they are good measures of past performance is that a) they take risk into account, so a fund with higher return won't get a ...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 31, 2021 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VG Removing Message Center [Vanguard]
Replies: 480
Views: 27565

Re: VG Removing Message Center [Vanguard]

...it looks like they are working hard to change the company from user friendly to user hostile... Around the late 1990s there was a management fad of trying to deliberately tick off less-profitable customers and hope to get them to leave, and become a burden to competitors. I don't know if busines...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 31, 2021 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VG Removing Message Center [Vanguard]
Replies: 480
Views: 27565

Re: VG Removing Message Center [Vanguard]

...Fidelity has live chat, just type "representative"... Does Fidelity's live chat appear to contact the same cohort of people that answer phone calls? In principal I like live chat because of the possibility of capturing a written transcript, pasting in account numbers and such and not w...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 31, 2021 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VG Removing Message Center [Vanguard]
Replies: 480
Views: 27565

Re: VG Removing Message Center [Vanguard]

By the way, I failed to copy the link with the invitation to "help us pilot new digital experiences," and I may want to think about doing that, so if anyone gets the message and has time to capture and post that URL, I'd appreciate it.
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 31, 2021 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VG Removing Message Center [Vanguard]
Replies: 480
Views: 27565

Re: VG Removing Message Center [Vanguard]

...OK, I logged into my Vanguard account and still see no pop-ups or notice of impending change in secure messaging... At this point, I can say only that it is unpredictable whether or not I will see it. I never saw it before reading this thread but had not logged in very often. I didn't see it whe...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 31, 2021 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VG Removing Message Center [Vanguard]
Replies: 480
Views: 27565

Re: VG Removing Message Center

It isn't a big building. Zoom in. That is Building C. Vanguard is Suite 1A. Larger building to the right of your screen shot. Ah. Yes. Big loading doors and fat cables. https://imgur.com/kezeSl5.png Just notice something weird. My last piece of postal mail from Vanguard, a brokerage transaction con...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 31, 2021 8:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VG Removing Message Center [Vanguard]
Replies: 480
Views: 27565

Re: VG Removing Message Center

The "Swiss" in "Swiss Post Solutions", and the hint of a Swiss flag in its logo, https://imgur.com/m6YwOO2.png give the impression, which is true, that Swiss Post Solutions is headquartered in Switzerland . They claim to offer Smart Shoring : Instead of taking a one-size-fits-all...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 31, 2021 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VG Removing Message Center [Vanguard]
Replies: 480
Views: 27565

Re: VG Removing Message Center

Remember, they are firing their customers slowly but surely. They want to be a low cost asset manager or a low cost asset administrator, not a complementary asset administrator. CMA, Flagship reps for all but a few, coffee cups gone. Schwab in the past has paid for service by defaulting or forcing ...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 31, 2021 6:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VG Removing Message Center [Vanguard]
Replies: 480
Views: 27565

Re: Why is Vanguard no longer allowing customers to contact them by secure email starting August 1?

...I thought Vanguard was in Malvern, PA. When did they move?... They have their mailing operations elsewhere. One of the little weird "what does this mean" Vanguardology questions a few years ago was why they they moved their (outsourced) outgoing mail operations from R. R. Donnelly, in ...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 31, 2021 6:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Intel
Replies: 23
Views: 1709

Re: Intel

... Intel might not be the winner here but not joining the race is like not betting that the car will take off and replace the horse. Most of this stuff is inevitable and it is going to take a lot of computer chips to do it.... Question is which of the cars would you bet on? Some horse has got to w...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 31, 2021 5:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VG Removing Message Center [Vanguard]
Replies: 480
Views: 27565

Re: VG Removing Message Center

prd1982 wrote: Sat Jul 31, 2021 5:24 am
nisiprius wrote: Sat Jul 31, 2021 5:07 am One has to wonder...
Why? Shouldn’t you have some indication before making this innuendo?
You're right. With such short notice and no explanation at all, Vanguard should expect people to wonder about things, but I shouldn't have made explicit wild guesses.
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 31, 2021 5:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VG Removing Message Center [Vanguard]
Replies: 480
Views: 27565

Re: VG Removing Message Center

(Wild speculation about possible explanation deleted by poster)
by nisiprius
Fri Jul 30, 2021 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VG Removing Message Center [Vanguard]
Replies: 480
Views: 27565

Re: VG Removing Message Center

No such notice on login, no, it's a popup and it was being blocked by my standard Safari browser setting . Shame on them for delivering something important in the form of a popup window, when they must know many of their customers block popup windows... I certainly expect Vanguard to provide an ema...
by nisiprius
Fri Jul 30, 2021 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone buying PG&E stock?
Replies: 64
Views: 6864

Re: Anyone buying PG&E stock?

Too big to fail. It's gotta be, right? A government might decide that power generation mustn't stop, but the company itself it could still go through bankruptcy with current stockholders getting practically or literally nothing. And it isn't all that big. It isn't a megacap. It isn't a huge part of...
by nisiprius
Fri Jul 30, 2021 6:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best Basic Watch
Replies: 58
Views: 3483

Re: Best Basic Watch

I have a Timex with Indiglo backlight, analog dial, sweep-second hand, water resistant to thirty meters. Cost maybe $35, but I also bought a $20 expansion band for it because I really got tired of paying $15.95 over and over again for leather bands... For about thirty-five years I had a Seiko that w...
by nisiprius
Fri Jul 30, 2021 8:04 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Which ETF would you suggest to tilt to small cap and/or value?
Replies: 8
Views: 811

Re: Which ETF would you suggest to tilt to small cap and/or value?

My asset allocation is a conservative split of 50% stocks and 50% fixed income and I rebalance 4 times per year (around 21 mar/21 jun/21 sep/21 dec). Most people my age would likely be more dynamic/aggressive but for me the 50% in bonds and cash lets me sleep well at all times. I do not want to inc...
by nisiprius
Fri Jul 30, 2021 6:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock market crashes during economic boom possible?
Replies: 6
Views: 973

Re: Stock market crashes during economic boom possible?

The Stocks are Up but the Economy's Down JOSH BROWN: Now I'm going to give you my favorite analogy. So a woman is walking through Central Park, and she's got a dog. What's a very active kind of dog? VANEK SMITH: Oh, like a Jack Russell terrier or something like that. BROWN: Fine. Jack Russell terri...
by nisiprius
Fri Jul 30, 2021 6:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock market crashes during economic boom possible?
Replies: 6
Views: 973

Re: Stock market crashes during economic boom possible?

????? Surely the crash of 1929 occurred during an economic boom (the Jazz Age, the Roaring Twenties)? And the tech crash of 2000-2002?
by nisiprius
Thu Jul 29, 2021 9:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment Style Growth/Value % Mix???
Replies: 4
Views: 319

Re: Investment Style Growth/Value % Mix???

Advice please: Morningstar states that Growth and Value should be held in similar proportions. Citation please. Vanguard says so. I don't know whether Morningstar agrees. Vanguard (the boldfacing is mine): What we think about stock investing Broad diversification across all segments of the domestic...
by nisiprius
Thu Jul 29, 2021 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment Style Growth/Value % Mix???
Replies: 4
Views: 319

Re: Investment Style Growth/Value % Mix???

You don't give specifics, but (as you'd hope) Morningstar classifies the Vanguard Growth Index Fund as "large growth," Value Index as "large value;" while the Vanguard 500 index Fund is "large blend," so I'll use them for a quick reality check. Over the past 28 years, u...
by nisiprius
Thu Jul 29, 2021 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the market P/E range permanently higher?
Replies: 57
Views: 3160

Re: Is the market P/E range permanently higher?

Quick, before someone else says it: "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." --Irving Fisher, October 16th, 1929. https://imgur.com/tbIVswV.png Fisher was a brilliant economist who made enduring contributions, including a 1922 book on The Making of Index Numb...
by nisiprius
Thu Jul 29, 2021 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Indexing Popularizing
Replies: 4
Views: 599

Re: Direct Indexing Popularizing

How do direct indexing products handle portability (moving to another brokerage), and capital gains reporting on tax returns?
by nisiprius
Thu Jul 29, 2021 7:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: S&P returns
Replies: 12
Views: 1774

Re: S&P returns

To illustrate some readily-available tools... PortfolioVisualizer doesn't include actual indexes, but in some ways that might be "a feature, not a bug." When doing this kind of checking there are always tiny little issues about what exact calendar day to use, but if we simply use the same ...
by nisiprius
Wed Jul 28, 2021 8:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Switching half my portfolio to treasuries?
Replies: 39
Views: 4609

Re: Switching half my portfolio to treasuries?

...Bonds have produced equity-like returns in the fairly recent past... When? Not any time that I can remember within my investing career. What am I forgetting? Unless you just mean that there have been times when equities were making nothing at all, e.g. 2000-2009, so then, yes, during that partic...
by nisiprius
Wed Jul 28, 2021 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Switching half my portfolio to treasuries?
Replies: 39
Views: 4609

Re: Switching half my portfolio to treasuries?

zetsui wrote: Wed Jul 28, 2021 5:21 am 1) Lets say I think the market is grossly overvalued.
Let's say you do.

I think lots of things about the market. But I don't act on them. I am convinced that it better not to act on what I "think" than to act on it.
by nisiprius
Wed Jul 28, 2021 5:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Light for Zoom Calls
Replies: 8
Views: 1056

Re: Light for Zoom Calls

This isn't for quality work or anything like that, but just to not-look-totally-dark-and-murky I really like the little not-excessively-bright LED desk lamp I bought for $20. Powered by USB and of they include a suitable AC adapter. https://imgur.com/F9d2rIz.png As the blurb says, ten brightnesses a...
by nisiprius
Wed Jul 28, 2021 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are You A Market Timer?]
Replies: 31
Views: 2851

Re: [Are Your A Market Timer?]

Selected descriptions of what "market timing" means. "Market timing is the act of entering and exiting trades (buying and selling at the most opportune time) in any market, whether stocks, bonds, futures, or options." --Joe Duarte, Market Timing for Dummies "Market timing is...
by nisiprius
Wed Jul 28, 2021 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are You A Market Timer?]
Replies: 31
Views: 2851

Re: [Are Your A Market Timer?]

No, we aren't. I find this sort of accusation tedious. I do not agree with Paul Merriman's definition that "market timing is any kind of movement within your portfolio that you think will make you more money." Paul Merriman says he has been around the market timing part of the business for...