Search found 42263 matches

by nisiprius
Sat Apr 17, 2021 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Take risk on equity side”
Replies: 28
Views: 1799

Re: “Take risk on equity side”

I think I have it. The specific phrase "Take your risk on the equity side" was the title of a 2011 posting by grok87: Grok's investing tip #1/10 Take your risk on the equity side . It is clear enough what he meant by it. And it is not what I thought. Yes, he does mean to stick to Treasurys...
by nisiprius
Sat Apr 17, 2021 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Take risk on equity side”
Replies: 28
Views: 1799

Re: “Take risk on equity side”

Added: See below . Here's something from one of Larry Swedroe's books-- The Quest for Alpha --but it doesn't specifically say "equity side," and while it states a position clearly, it doesn't really explain or support it. https://imgur.com/zA4U26Y.png Rules of Prudent Investing ...18. Take...
by nisiprius
Sat Apr 17, 2021 5:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to locate a photograph on the internet?
Replies: 14
Views: 1062

Re: How to locate a photograph on the internet?

Google Image Search used to work like magic. A few months ago it seemed to suddenly turn useless. Same experience as Caduceus: it now seems to be doing an artificially-intelligent search for pictures with similar themes, rather than locating pictures with very close visual matches for the whole pict...
by nisiprius
Sat Apr 17, 2021 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to see the Vanguard funds classified by risk
Replies: 2
Views: 243

Re: How to see the Vanguard funds classified by risk

For mutual funds: Vanguard.com, personal investors if asked >> Investing >> Vanguard mutual funds >> Browse mutual funds by asset class >> Filter. Scroll to "risk." Initially all categories are checked. Check the ones you want. Select any other filters you want. Click "See funds."...
by nisiprius
Sat Apr 17, 2021 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Take risk on equity side”
Replies: 28
Views: 1799

Re: “Take risk on equity side”

Added: See below . The saying is often attributed to Larry Swedroe, but I can't find his exact words in a quick web search. However, Larry Swedroe was definitely opposed to the use of "high-yield" (junk) bonds, as detailed e.g. in Do High Yield Bonds Translated into High Returns? For the r...
by nisiprius
Sat Apr 17, 2021 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don't fuss about 529 accounts. Have your child skip the first two years of college instead!
Replies: 88
Views: 5964

Re: Don't fuss about 529 accounts. Have your child skip the first two years of college instead!

1) "Plan on having your kid advance place out of two full years of college" is like saying "simply plan on having your kid get a full athletic scholarship." 2) The original posting has the flavor of the joke sign that says "if you need anything, just ask and I will tell you ...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 16, 2021 3:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Short Term TIPs ETF (VTIP) - Does it make sense?
Replies: 10
Views: 1001

Re: Short Term TIPs ETF (VTIP) - Does it make sense?

To me, the best use of TIPS is for long-term holdings. Short-term, with nominal bonds, investors will demand enough interest to compensate for expected inflation. Over the short term, serious unexpected inflation doesn't have much time to show up and bite deeply, so I wouldn't expect the difference ...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 16, 2021 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total market investors, do you feel comfortable with only a handful of companies at the top?
Replies: 43
Views: 3228

Re: Total market investors, do you feel comfortable with only a handful of companies at the top?

RSP, the equal-weighted S&P index ETF, quadog mentioned, is an interesting case to argue about. The problem is that people like to compare it to the cap-weighted S&P solely on the basis of return. This is misleading because it is riskier and more volatile than the S&P itself. Critics lik...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total market investors, do you feel comfortable with only a handful of companies at the top?
Replies: 43
Views: 3228

Re: Total market investors, do you feel comfortable with only a handful of companies at the top?

Yes. I feel uncomfortable that we are in an age of consolidation of enterprises , and that the pendulum is swinging once again toward monopolies and oligopolies, but not that the stock market reflects it. This is mostly a false alarm raised to scare people who haven't paid much attention to what the...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Shorten duration of Bond allocation
Replies: 20
Views: 825

Re: Shorten duration of Bond allocation

Go to Vanguard's web page for VBILX . https://imgur.com/1mW6ksS.jpg 1) Notice that the duration is 6.6 years. 2) Notice that Vanguard suggests this fund may be appropriate for investors planning to hold it for 4 to 10 years. 3) Notice that through its lifetime, superimposed on a general upward growt...
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 15, 2021 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There’s a single New Jersey deli doing $35,000 in sales valued at $100 million in the stock market
Replies: 58
Views: 5928

Re: There’s a single New Jersey deli doing $35,000 in sales valued at $100 million in the stock market

If it were Rein's in Connecticut, I might be interested.

I think the take-home here is that NFTs are just a new form of folly, no sillier than these penny stocks.
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 15, 2021 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds as ballast and a rising Glide path
Replies: 29
Views: 2070

Re: Bonds as ballast and a rising Glide path

If bonds are ballast doesn't there come a point where you have enough ballast and couldn't that lead to a rising glide path as one approaches retirement and even into retirement if your assets grow beyond 25X? This seems logical to me but wondering how others see it. A brief answer based on the con...
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 15, 2021 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What’s the problem with dividends?
Replies: 216
Views: 11279

Re: What’s the problem with dividends?

...1) You do not need a large balance to construct a dividend growth portfolio that can sustain you many years, indeed all years. Way more years than a TR withdrawn rate can... This is mathematically impossible unless you are, in fact, asserting that dividend stocks have much higher total return th...
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Medicare - just A + B?
Replies: 31
Views: 2234

Re: Medicare - just A + B?

Thanks for the answers all. One more medicare question .... I've heard that some docs will not take medicare patients due to the lower compensation. Has anyone found this to be true? If so I suppose that would be a huge advantage for an HMO type advantage plan. I don't know if this varies from mark...
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Medicare - just A + B?
Replies: 31
Views: 2234

Re: Medicare - just A + B?

ModifiedDuration wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 9:17 am...One other point: you mention the insane markups at for-profit hospitals. I would submit that the same insane markups exist at the two-thirds of the hospitals in the US that are non-profit. They all have insane markups, whether for-profit or non-profit...
Point taken, post corrected.
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 15, 2021 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What’s the problem with dividends?
Replies: 216
Views: 11279

Re: What’s the problem with dividends?

Just because a company does not pay a dividend does not mean that the company will spend its retained earnings wisely. I've found that most Bogleheads cannot grasp (or choose to ignore) this concept. They are blind to value vs price when the conversation inevitably turns to stock buybacks. It's as ...
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 15, 2021 11:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Core Bond Fund
Replies: 3
Views: 480

Re: Vanguard Core Bond Fund

Bond funds fluctuate. VCOBX has an average duration of 6.6 years, which makes "intermediate-term" on average. That suggests it should normally be held for around six years, and Vanguard puts it their risk category 2, which they say "may be appropriate for investors with medium-term in...
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 15, 2021 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What’s the problem with dividends?
Replies: 216
Views: 11279

Re: What’s the problem with dividends?

All other things being equal--which they are not--there is no financial difference between a company retaining earnings and reinvesting them itself to grow its business, versus paying you dividends, your reinvesting the dividends to buy more shares of the stock. At some level--which I don't personal...
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 15, 2021 7:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market shift since december
Replies: 21
Views: 2044

Re: Market shift since december

There are two broad theories of stock-market behavior. The prevalent theory, which is also seen in gambling, is that the stock market is full of trends and shifts and rotations, and rhythms of market sentiment that can be sensed and anticipated; and that trends and shifts and rotations can and shoul...
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 15, 2021 6:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Medicare - just A + B?
Replies: 31
Views: 2234

Re: Medicare - just A + B?

Here's a question. There have been newspaper stories about people getting snakebite, going to an emergency room, and getting billed $100,000 for antivenin. Exactly what kinds of insurance would have covered the cost of the antivenin? Medicare part A, B, D? Medigap? If the patient just goes to the E...
by nisiprius
Wed Apr 14, 2021 8:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on VNQ? [Vanguard Real Estate ETF]
Replies: 48
Views: 11831

Re: Thoughts on VNQ? [Vanguard Real Estate ETF]

In 2008-2009, it was shocking to look at an investment in VTI and see only about ½ the number you'd gotten used to seeing. It was more shocking to look at an investment in the Vanguard REIT Index fund/ETF and see only about ⅓ of the number you'd seen a year earlier. Source https://imgur.com/Gu8c8o7....
by nisiprius
Wed Apr 14, 2021 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalance time for retiree- If I buy VBTLX now what do I get?
Replies: 23
Views: 2307

Re: Rebalance time for retiree- If I buy VBTLX now what do I get?

You get a fund in a category that Vanguard says "may be appropriate for investors with medium-term investment horizons (4 to 10 years)," which, in over thirty years, 2/1987 through 2/2021, has never lost money in any 48-month period.
by nisiprius
Wed Apr 14, 2021 8:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Alternative to Total Bond?
Replies: 46
Views: 4537

Re: Alternative to Total Bond?

Bonds are bonds. Among bond funds and bond ETFs you aren't likely to find anything hugely better than Total Bond. Within the universe of bond funds, you can tune risk and return--you will find that the two are closely related--and connoisseurs claim to see differences they care about between particu...
by nisiprius
Wed Apr 14, 2021 6:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Medicare - just A + B?
Replies: 31
Views: 2234

Re: Medicare - just A + B?

I am not on Medicare yet but my big concern would be that there are no upper limits / out of pocket maximums as there are with private or ACA plans. If you have a major medical incident like cancer or a major heart issue, you are responsible for 20% of the cost, with no limit. So a $1,000,000 cance...
by nisiprius
Tue Apr 13, 2021 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Watch out for inflation numbers
Replies: 49
Views: 5033

Re: Watch out for inflation numbers

the CPI is fake anyways so the numbers are of little practical use What's your support for that bold assertion? During the period of time when the MIT Billion Prices Project released its results freely on the web, their independent results--obtained by screen-scraping prices published on the Intern...
by nisiprius
Tue Apr 13, 2021 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International is in meltdown
Replies: 410
Views: 35172

Re: International is in meltdown

1. Jack said no international needed What I never hear people mention is another thing Jack said: "Bogle said himself at the summer event, 'I do think investors can make a legitimate choice; if they want to do non-U.S., they should do it.' He added that if an investor is determined to go overs...
by nisiprius
Tue Apr 13, 2021 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your bond fund should have barely enough for reasonable rebalancing. The rest of your fixed income should be in MYGAs.
Replies: 42
Views: 5542

Re: Your bond fund should have barely enough for reasonable rebalancing. The rest of your fixed income should be in MYGA

"I wonder often what the Vintners buy One half so precious as the stuff they sell." -- Rubaiyat of Omar Khayyam, quatrain XCV Can anyone explain clearly what the insurance companies are doing--what investments they are buying --that seemingly enable them to beat bonds on return without add...
by nisiprius
Tue Apr 13, 2021 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your bond fund should have barely enough for reasonable rebalancing. The rest of your fixed income should be in MYGAs.
Replies: 42
Views: 5542

Re: Your bond fund should have barely enough for reasonable rebalancing. The rest of your fixed income should be in MYGA

They are guaranteed both by insurance companies and by state governments. They are not guaranteed by state governments. A State Guaranty Association is not the state government. Guaranty associations are state-sanctioned, nonprofit organizations that insure consumers in the unlikely event that thei...
by nisiprius
Tue Apr 13, 2021 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For a 40/60 Allocation, what would you choose ?
Replies: 33
Views: 3426

Re: For a 40/60 Allocation, what would you choose ?

Do it myself with a three-fund portfolio, with the 40% divided however I want it between Total [US] Stock and Total International Stock and the 60% in Total Bond. Rebalance only as needed to stay reasonably close to 40/60--which could be annually but could be much less often than that. If you don't ...
by nisiprius
Tue Apr 13, 2021 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Medicare - just A + B?
Replies: 31
Views: 2234

Re: Medicare - just A + B?

No, because the catastrophic coverage provision of part D seems really important to me, so, definitely, part D (prescription drugs). We do have supplemental/"Medigap" because the statistics on our policy say 89% of the premiums get paid out as benefits, and if I multiply the premiums by 11...
by nisiprius
Tue Apr 13, 2021 10:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Differences btwn sector weights and mrkt weights
Replies: 5
Views: 344

Re: Differences btwn sector weights and mrkt weights

I wouldn't worry about anything Portfolio Watch says, as it has been consistently unreliable. It is just barely possible that it is now smart enough to know the sector composition of international stocks, which is different from the sector composition of US stocks, and nothing that the contribution ...
by nisiprius
Tue Apr 13, 2021 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is AGG considered a "safe" bond etf?
Replies: 42
Views: 3574

Re: Is AGG considered a "safe" bond etf?

Bonds aren't really supposed to generate income. Only in declining rate scenario would bonds have positive real return. Historically that has not been true. Closer to the complex and unpredictable truth would be that interest-earning cashlike investments--Treasury bills, money market mutual funds, ...
by nisiprius
Mon Apr 12, 2021 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is AGG considered a "safe" bond etf?
Replies: 42
Views: 3574

Re: Is AGG considered a "safe" bond etf?

...My 25K is now 24k in a few months... ...If I'm going to risk a 1k loss, I might as well be in equities. :oops: "A few months" is not an appropriate time frame to look at. AGG has a duration of 6.37 years. That means that in terms of losses, you should be thinking about holding periods ...
by nisiprius
Mon Apr 12, 2021 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ross Gerber (Wealth Management) claims index funds won’t have high enough returns to fund retirement
Replies: 27
Views: 1946

Re: Ross Gerber (Wealth Management) claims index funds won’t have high enough returns to fund retirement

...doesn’t want to invest in dying industries like oil and railroads... The Voya Corporate Leaders Trust never trades, and the portfolio has been frozen in time except for mergers and bankruptcies. As a result, it is, today, 42% invested in Union Pacific Corp, which suggests that Union Pacific Corp...
by nisiprius
Mon Apr 12, 2021 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another 2.8% SWR Article Quoting Wade Pfau
Replies: 252
Views: 13900

Re: Another 2.8% SWR Article Quoting Wade Pfau

I don't know that 4% is safe. I think 4% is a reasonable planning number. In their February 1998 article, Retirement Savings: Choosing a Withdrawal Rate That Is Sustainable, Cooley & al. the word "safe" does not appear. What does appear is a perfectly clear statement: The word planning...
by nisiprius
Mon Apr 12, 2021 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this the single worst time to be a passive investor
Replies: 73
Views: 9313

Re: Is this the single worst time to be a passive investor

At this risk of pointing out the obvious, this is exactly what is meant by "tune out the noise."
by nisiprius
Mon Apr 12, 2021 11:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Contradictory bond fund composition information by Vanguard on its site
Replies: 5
Views: 564

Re: Contradictory bond fund composition information by Vanguard on its site

Portfolio Watch has been quite unreliable and inaccurate for as long as I've been paying attention... particularly with non-Vanguard funds but sometimes with Vanguard funds, too. I contacted them about a gross problem with Portfolio Watch's categorization of the asset allocation of one of Vanguard's...
by nisiprius
Mon Apr 12, 2021 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this the single worst time to be a passive investor
Replies: 73
Views: 9313

Re: Is this the single worst time to be a passive investor

"...The [S&P 500] index is highly likely to not make money over the next 10 years..." I wish I had a million to spare, so that I could make a ten-year bet with him, like the one Warren Buffett made with Ted Seides, principle of a firm whose business was helping wealthy investors inves...
by nisiprius
Mon Apr 12, 2021 7:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Index ETF or Index Mutual fund for brokerage acct
Replies: 8
Views: 719

Re: Index ETF or Index Mutual fund for brokerage acct

No, there are no important differences . Claims that either kind of product--ETFs or mutual funds--are much better than the other, is debating about angels dancing on the head of a pin. If you currently invest in individual stocks, and feel generally comfortable with that process, you should probabl...
by nisiprius
Mon Apr 12, 2021 7:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 133
Views: 6746

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

A portfolio diversified with alts does not have to be expensive, and does not require an advisor charging an AUM fee: https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/portfolio/vpgdx I do not invest in VPGDX and have no idea if I would prefer it to a conventional portfolio. I realize this might n...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 11, 2021 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Buy and Hold No More” says A16Z
Replies: 90
Views: 9081

Re: “Buy and Hold No More” says A16Z

I don’t know that active investing is actually going to do better in the long term, but it sure seems like it will... Then why have 80% of actively managed mutual fund underperformed the market over the last ten years? SPIVA US 2020 year-end scorecard https://imgur.com/7b656D3.png Do you think that...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 11, 2021 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is AGG considered a "safe" bond etf?
Replies: 42
Views: 3574

Re: Is AGG considered a "safe" bond etf?

Short answer: yes, it's one of many choices that exactly fit what books are talking about: a good "core" bond holding. With regard to volatility, and the possibility of seeing less money in a week or a month or a year than you have today: --bonds are much safer than stocks, even dividend s...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another 2.8% SWR Article Quoting Wade Pfau
Replies: 252
Views: 13900

Re: Another 2.8% SWR Article Quoting Wade Pfau

I have a huge problem with the fluctuation in SWR percentages since the 4% number was first bruited about, and with the differences from authority to authority. The problem that the SWR tries to solve is the variability of stock market returns. SWR is not supposed to be based on prediction of stock ...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 11, 2021 9:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Spouse recently passed away. Please help me handle his financial matters]
Replies: 111
Views: 7322

Re: So what is wrong with not investing?

I would agree. Cash is assured to lose value during any type of inflationary period. Which we're in. Physical cash in paper bills is "assured" to lose value to inflation. Treasury bills, bank accounts, and money market mutual funds are not . For example, from 1971 through 1985, inflation ...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 11, 2021 8:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Spouse recently passed away. Please help me handle his financial matters]
Replies: 111
Views: 7322

Re: So what is wrong with not investing?

I have a large sum of money to manage now so I don't get in trouble in the next 14 years: my husband left me his retirement accounts and I need to replace his income with those monies until I retire, at least. I have my own career and retirement account that, I hope, will be enough for me when I am...
by nisiprius
Sat Apr 10, 2021 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 133
Views: 6746

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

...But 3 years is very short... Indeed it is. But so is the life span of the average Stone Ridge fund. In about seven years, they have introduced a total of nine funds (reinsurance, US variance, international variance, (global?) variance, alternative lending, longevity, hedged equity, multi-strateg...
by nisiprius
Sat Apr 10, 2021 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to bonds
Replies: 10
Views: 1797

Re: An alternative to bonds

It sounds a lot like the Vanguard Managed Payout Fund series. Specifically, the "7%" brings to mind the "Vanguard Managed Payout Distribution Focus Fund," VPDFX, which also had a 7% target. Naturally, both the Vanguard fund and this one have disclaimers. In the case of Vanguard, ...
by nisiprius
Sat Apr 10, 2021 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Vanguard account blocked or site down?
Replies: 21
Views: 1667

Re: My Vanguard account blocked or site down?

I often see weird stuff on various websites and it's hard to know whom to blame. One detail--perhaps someone more technological can confirm and give more details, but it is pretty obvious that "the Vanguard website" is not one server, it is many different ones. What governs which you get, ...
by nisiprius
Sat Apr 10, 2021 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Buy and Hold No More” says A16Z
Replies: 90
Views: 9081

Re: “Buy and Hold No More” says A16Z

I accept the likely truth that something has changed between 2019 and 2021, in that the confluence of a long bull market with other things (shutdown of sports betting, creating of gamified investing tools) has just recruited a new cohort of retail investors into a resurgence of speculative mania. It...