Search found 43081 matches

by nisiprius
Tue Jul 27, 2021 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
Replies: 87
Views: 5960

Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds

30% return over 20 years? Is that correct? No, that is not correct. 20 years includes the period 2002-2008 when international stocks performed well, among other things. I have no idea where that number comes from, but five minutes on PortfolioVisualizer will show us that from 6/27/2001 through 6/27...
by nisiprius
Tue Jul 27, 2021 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any concern about China?
Replies: 86
Views: 4728

Re: Any concern about China?

nigel_ht wrote: Tue Jul 27, 2021 12:49 pmUnfortunately China is like 10% of VXUS.
That seems irrelevant unless you have decided for some reason to hold 100% VXUS.
by nisiprius
Tue Jul 27, 2021 1:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Home Printer?
Replies: 37
Views: 2243

Re: Home Printer?

I love our Brother HL-3170CDW. (Discontinued, but I'll just assume their others are as good). I probably print a good deal more than 25 pages a month, maybe 100. This particular one happens to be color, and does two-sided printing. The main thing is that I can't tell you just how much nicer it is to...
by nisiprius
Tue Jul 27, 2021 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any concern about China?
Replies: 86
Views: 4728

Re: Any concern about China?

Do the math on your own portfolio. Let's say it is Vanguard Target Retirement 2040, VFORX. The Total International Stock Index Fund is 32.70% of VFORX. China is 10.6% of the Total International Stock Index Fund. China is 10.6% of 32.70% = 3.5% of your portfolio. For me, 3.5% is a small enough numbe...
by nisiprius
Tue Jul 27, 2021 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are international stocks down?
Replies: 11
Views: 1880

Re: Why are international stocks down?

John C. Bogle often said, quoting Shakespeare, that "the daily machinations of the stock market are like a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing." "Explanations" of "why" the market is moving are both unreliable, and useless for guiding perso...
by nisiprius
Mon Jul 26, 2021 8:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My bizarre telcon with SSA today.
Replies: 21
Views: 3492

Re: My bizarre telcon with SSA today.

I was told that I understood perfectly, but that what I didn't know was that the adjustment was only done in batch runs every six months and I'd just missed the last one, but that the adjustment would occur in six months and would include a lump sum payment making it retroactive to full retirement ...
by nisiprius
Mon Jul 26, 2021 6:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My bizarre telcon with SSA today.
Replies: 21
Views: 3492

Re: My bizarre telcon with SSA today.

I have no idea what the situation is currently with respect to in-person visits. (Checking) Closed currently. Several years ago, my experience was, uniformly, that the people I saw in person in the local office five miles away were well-informed, helpful, intelligent, and able to understand non-rout...
by nisiprius
Mon Jul 26, 2021 12:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are Private Universities Worth It Compared to State Universities?
Replies: 151
Views: 8211

Re: Are Private Universities Worth It Compared to State Universities?

The elephant in the room is "social prestige." According to Wikipedia, in 1908, Scotsman Robert Knox Risk wrote Princeton, like [Harvard and Yale], confers some social distinction upon its graduates. In this respect Harvard, Yale, and Princeton are the Western Counterparts of Oxford and Ca...
by nisiprius
Mon Jul 26, 2021 9:00 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hybrid Induction and Electric cooktops
Replies: 25
Views: 1223

Re: Hybrid Induction and Electric cooktops

We've been very happy with our Electrolux all-induction-cooktop stove, and my wife and I have yet to feel any need for, or nostalgia for resistance-coil heating. But we're not foodies. We had to spend maybe $150 on new pots and pans--many of our old ones were compatible--but I think my wife kind of ...
by nisiprius
Mon Jul 26, 2021 8:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Class-action Lawsuit Against a Mutual Fund
Replies: 23
Views: 2412

Re: Class-action Lawsuit Against a Mutual Fund

I don't want to encourage Moon and stars to do anything, I definitely don't want to egg them on to contact the firm, but if they do and get a description of what BNY Mellon is alleged to be doing I hope they will post it. I am certainly not a lawyer but my vague impression is that courts are not ent...
by nisiprius
Sun Jul 25, 2021 8:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paper Checks - Single, Duplicate, High Security?
Replies: 20
Views: 1493

Re: Paper Checks - Single, Duplicate, High Security?

I have to write a few checks every quarter. I get the cheapest ones I can find--I think the last batch was from Walmartchecks.com. I wish I could buy less than 200 at a time. We still have 160 checks left from our last order. The prices banks charge for checks is enough of a ripoff to motivate me to...
by nisiprius
Sun Jul 25, 2021 8:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Class-action Lawsuit Against a Mutual Fund
Replies: 23
Views: 2412

Re: Class-action Lawsuit Against a Mutual Fund

It sounds a little weird to me. ...No matter what you do, don't spend a minute worrying about whether you should sell this fund because of this claimed malfeasance... I agree completely. As for joining the lawsuit, have you been doing a slow burn all along? What exactly are the bad things that BNY M...
by nisiprius
Sun Jul 25, 2021 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why didn't John C. Bogle include a "funny money" strategy in the 2017 edition of "The Little Book?"
Replies: 24
Views: 2308

Re: Why didn't John C. Bogle include a "funny money" strategy in the 2017 edition of "The Little Book?"

To be clear, are we now saying it is Boglehead approved to have 5% of ones portfolio invested in whatever high risk investment of their choice with the full understanding it could go to zero, while still maintaining a 95% "safe" 3-fund portfolio? NO. According to Bogle, the 5% is to be ke...
by nisiprius
Sun Jul 25, 2021 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why didn't John C. Bogle include a "funny money" strategy in the 2017 edition of "The Little Book?"
Replies: 24
Views: 2308

Re: Why didn't John C. Bogle include a "funny money" strategy in the 2017 edition of "The Little Book?"

(Shrug) The terms he used pretty consistently were "Funny Money account" and "Serious Money account," which he capitalized that way when he was writing about them. A point that I think are important, and sometimes missed, is that he was not talking about a 5% allocation to someth...
by nisiprius
Sun Jul 25, 2021 5:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Wellington and Windsor Funds
Replies: 14
Views: 1469

Re: Wellington and Windsor Funds

"Global Wellington," VWGLX/VGWAX, and "Global Wellesley," VGWIX/VGYAX were launched 11/2/2017 and now have $1.8 billion and $563 million in assets, respectively. Possibly some of the outflow was investors switching to these funds?
by nisiprius
Sun Jul 25, 2021 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why didn't John C. Bogle include a "funny money" strategy in the 2017 edition of "The Little Book?"
Replies: 24
Views: 2308

Re: Why didn't John C. Bogle include a "funny money" strategy in the 2017 edition of "The Little Book?"

i don't know. but if we started referring to it as "toilet money" instead (as in money that will likely go down the drain) would people view that part of their money they're playing mental accounting games with differently? could the publisher talked him out of reprinting that part of the...
by nisiprius
Sun Jul 25, 2021 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why didn't John C. Bogle include a "funny money" strategy in the 2017 edition of "The Little Book?"
Replies: 24
Views: 2308

Why didn't John C. Bogle include a "funny money" strategy in the 2017 edition of "The Little Book?"

The first (2007) edition of John C. Bogle's The Little Book of Common Sense Investing contains a full chapter, Chapter 18, "What Should I Do Now? Funny Money, Serious Money, and Investment Strategy." I'm looking at it because I'm fiddling with the idea of writing a Bogleheads' Wiki article...
by nisiprius
Sun Jul 25, 2021 10:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Use credit card at stores instead of debit?
Replies: 150
Views: 9206

Re: Use credit card at stores instead of debit?

Can someone explain the exact legal differences (if any) between running a debit card "as debit" and "as credit?" Apparently it involves different entities that do the processing, and merchants are sometimes charged different fees and have a preference... and it is not terribly r...
by nisiprius
Sun Jul 25, 2021 6:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Term life Vs. whole life
Replies: 64
Views: 4484

Re: Term life Vs. whole life

...bonds will have negative real returns over the next 20 to 30 years. Whereas a whole life policy that isn't lapsed will have at least real returns of 1 to 2 percent. Please tell us more about whole life policies with contractually guaranteed real returns of 1 to 2 percent. Consumer Reports doesn'...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 24, 2021 8:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Emerging Market allocation shift when going from FTSE to MSCI
Replies: 3
Views: 410

Re: Emerging Market allocation shift when going from FTSE to MSCI

Let's say 40% of your stock allocation is international. Then, you are talking about 13.69%... of 25%... of 40%... = 1.37% of your portfolio. Now consider that the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF, EWY, has had an 88% correlation with the Vanguard Emerging Markets Index Fund, VEMAX. In other words, Sout...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 24, 2021 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GMO 7 year forecast for Asset classes
Replies: 40
Views: 6061

Re: GMO 7 year forecast for Asset classes

The range of the narrowest estimate is 11% (1%-12% for global equity). Even worse, you'll notice Vanguard says there's a 50% chance it is outside those bounds (25% chance higher, 25% chance lower). No, for the "range" I'm using the 5% and 95% "whiskers." To my mind, if someone s...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 24, 2021 6:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Use credit card at stores instead of debit?
Replies: 150
Views: 9206

Re: Use credit card at stores instead of debit?

What reason would there be to use a debit card, aside from those rare events when credit card fees are absurd (mainly taxes)? Because I like to. Let me say this in public: I truly believe that my wife and I are neither innumerate nor stupid. Nevertheless, what we have found... for us ... is that we...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 24, 2021 5:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Use credit card at stores instead of debit?
Replies: 150
Views: 9206

Re: Use credit card at stores instead of debit?

There is a technicality involving the amount of protection you have against fraudulent charges with debit and with credit cards. If your credit card (or its number) is stolen and used fraudulently, you are liable for at most $50--and if you report the card stolen before it is used, you are not liabl...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 24, 2021 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: date set for Vanguard retiring its legacy brokerage platform
Replies: 42
Views: 8187

Re: date set for Vanguard retiring its legacy brokerage platform

I have the new format brokerage, but for other readers I'll re-raise the question of how do I know if I have the legacy brokerage platform ? Based on the bolded statement above, is it safe to say (1) the legacy brokerage platform doesn't let you buy any mutual funds in it (in contrast to the new br...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 24, 2021 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GMO 7 year forecast for Asset classes
Replies: 40
Views: 6061

Re: GMO 7 year forecast for Asset classes

...I don't know that they routinely show the ranges. https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/gmo-7-year-asset-class-forecast-2q-2021/... I was fantasizing that their actual clients get more complete reports, but I don't know. If they don't show ranges any more, shame on them. Vanguard does, a...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 24, 2021 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moderna added to the S&P 500 index
Replies: 10
Views: 1946

Re: Moderna added to the S&P 500 index

To see what 0.40% means visually... Nisi, the legend shows that "rest", in blue, is ~96%. However, there surely seems to be more than 4% by area that is not that big blue area. I suspect that the legend and the chart are not necessarily aligned. Meaning, that some of the smaller individua...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 24, 2021 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moderna added to the S&P 500 index
Replies: 10
Views: 1946

Re: Moderna added to the S&P 500 index

Keep the numbers in perspective. I don't believe it is of any importance at all to indexers. If you hold an S&P 500 index fund, a Total Stock index fund, mid-cap index fund, an extended market index fund, or a (purely-based-on-cap-weight) large-cap index fund, we are talking about something like...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 24, 2021 7:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Term life Vs. whole life
Replies: 64
Views: 4484

Re: Term life Vs. whole life

For a nuanced view from an impartial source:

Is Whole Life Insurance Right For You?

TL;DR summary: Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no.
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 24, 2021 7:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Term life Vs. whole life
Replies: 64
Views: 4484

Re: Term life Vs. whole life

Suppose there were such a thing as "whole car insurance" which cost five times as much as regular "term car insurance," but builds up "cash value," lets you take out loans against the insurance to pay for car repairs, offers nontaxable compounding of the cash value, and...
by nisiprius
Fri Jul 23, 2021 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GMO 7 year forecast for Asset classes
Replies: 40
Views: 6061

Re: GMO 7 year forecast for Asset classes

If you're going to pay any attention to the GMO forecasts, be sure to find the reports that state the ±ranges and not just the center point. What you will find is that GMO actually forecasts that the returns will fall within a certain range , and that the ranges are so incredibly wide that the forec...
by nisiprius
Fri Jul 23, 2021 6:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Much for a Consulting Fee?
Replies: 27
Views: 2692

Re: How Much for a Consulting Fee?

I've heard of a rule of thumb of 3X your hourly wage when working as a regular W2 employee. When I lost my W2 job and was offered a 1099 position at a startup, my hourly rate at the startup was 1.7X what my hourly wage had been. (Since I was already semiretired and was happy with the opportunity to ...
by nisiprius
Fri Jul 23, 2021 6:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Carbon Dioxide Monitor Recommendations
Replies: 15
Views: 1069

Re: Carbon Dioxide Monitor Recommendations

I actually posted on "did you mean CO 2 rather than CO" but deleted the post, because "under $200" suggests that he really must mean CO 2 , since garden-variety CO detectors only cost $20 to $30 ($35 for a three-pack!) It doesn't help that Google and Amazon searches for "car...
by nisiprius
Fri Jul 23, 2021 9:39 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Confused about Large Caps. Talk me out of them...
Replies: 23
Views: 2454

Re: Confused about Large Caps. Talk me out of them...

The very phrase "crush" suggests an issue, because you should try to keep emotions out of investing, and analogies to personal affection are particularly dangerous. MFEKX doesn't care about your feelings and isn't going to reward you for being faithful or get angry at you for two-timing. O...
by nisiprius
Thu Jul 22, 2021 8:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: date set for Vanguard retiring its legacy brokerage platform
Replies: 42
Views: 8187

Re: date set for Vanguard retiring its legacy brokerage platform

I have an email today Dear Vanguard Client, We'd like to inform you that Vanguard is retiring its legacy brokerage platform by the end of 2021. I'm still wondering if they mean the legacy mutual fund platform. For years I (and many others) have had both the old mutual fund platform and the separate...
by nisiprius
Thu Jul 22, 2021 2:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Start building cash reserve or is it cash drag?
Replies: 21
Views: 3145

Re: Start building cash reserve or is it cash drag?

"Cash drag" is a loaded term used by people who are advising you not to hold cash. Maybe they are right, maybe not, but be careful about the term. There are my own opinions. Others will differ. Although there is no hard-and-fast line, I distinguish between an "emergency fund" and...
by nisiprius
Wed Jul 21, 2021 2:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which Toys/Experiences Have Brought You The Most Joy?
Replies: 129
Views: 12873

Re: Which Toys/Experiences Have Brought You The Most Joy?

Nobody has yet said "Speculative investments in my 'funny money' account." I wonder if someone will?
by nisiprius
Wed Jul 21, 2021 2:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which Toys/Experiences Have Brought You The Most Joy?
Replies: 129
Views: 12873

Re: Which Toys/Experiences Have Brought You The Most Joy?

For me the key is that the experiences have to be moderately "work-like" or "hobby-like" and involve the cumulative building of some kind of skill or know-how. Truly passive, packaged experiences, like even the best amusement-park rides, or driving the loop road in a national par...
by nisiprius
Wed Jul 21, 2021 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For Young Investors, Why Not Long Term Bonds?
Replies: 15
Views: 1515

Re: For Young Investors, Why Not Long Term Bonds?

Consider a thirty-year Treasury bought at issue and held to maturity. I would never want to take the risk of locking up money for thirty years at a fixed-dollar value and a fixed-dollar interest rate. The difference in risk between 5-10 years (as in Total Bond) and 20-30 years (as in long-term Treas...
by nisiprius
Wed Jul 21, 2021 7:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tucson [Suggestions for activities]
Replies: 22
Views: 1832

Re: Tucson

Another vote for the Arizona-Sonora Desert Museum, which we visited twice in a 2½-week vacation in May, 2019. Our visit was just magical but of course some of that is just luck. First time we've been in that part of the country. I can't speak to pandemic conditions with regard to what's open or clos...
by nisiprius
Tue Jul 20, 2021 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical asset returns before 1970: Where to find
Replies: 69
Views: 5504

Re: Historical asset returns before 1970: Where to find

McQ (or anyone), 1) do you have any insights as to when and why the general public pretty much quit paying attention to the Dow Jones Railroad Average, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average began to be taken as the preeminent measure of "the market?" As best I can remember when I was a kid ...
by nisiprius
Tue Jul 20, 2021 10:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: [Buying S&P 500 Index Fund - Fidelity or Vanguard?]
Replies: 61
Views: 5591

Re: [Buying S&P 500 Index Fund - Fidelity or Vanguard?]

One of the characteristics of (broad market) index funds and ETFs is that they are "commodities" in the wide sense of the term. Like gasoline, it really doesn't matter what brand you get. I would mildly suggest that you consider total stock market index funds in place of S&P 500 funds,...
by nisiprius
Tue Jul 20, 2021 10:37 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Podcast for a Long Flight
Replies: 27
Views: 2579

Re: Podcast for a Long Flight

I love the podcast series 99% Invisible. Episodes are typically 30-45 minutes or so. My wife and I both find them consistently interesting . The theme is supposed to be "the unnoticed architecture and design that shapes our world." The variety is extraordinary, though... and the frequent g...
by nisiprius
Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:59 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: BABA and Tencent
Replies: 44
Views: 4578

Re: BABA and Tencent

...You do understand, right? The CCP could possibly shut down existing ADRs, which is what BABA is (When you buy BABA, you are not investing directly in Alibaba, you are investing in an ADR)... But to be fair, this is just part and parcel of "emerging markets risk." It shouldn't be a matt...
by nisiprius
Mon Jul 19, 2021 8:50 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: BABA and Tencent
Replies: 44
Views: 4578

Re: BABA and Tencent

David Jay wrote: Mon Jul 19, 2021 7:56 pm
nisiprius wrote: Thu Jul 08, 2021 6:38 amCan you name the CEOs of Alibaba and Tencent? (I can for Alibaba, but not Tencent).
Daniel Zhang?
I'm an idiot. Nope, you're right, and I can't name either. I thought the CEO of Alibaba was Jack Ma. It's a good thing I don't try to invest in individual stocks.
by nisiprius
Mon Jul 19, 2021 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Revisiting Ron Barron prediction (DJIA) by 2023
Replies: 13
Views: 1820

Re: Revisiting Ron Barron prediction (DJIA) by 2023

Mentions of the DJIA should be banned (ok I don't mean that literally). It's an utterly meaningless index that goes by share price. UnitedHealth, for example, counts about 3x as much in the DJIA as JP Morgan Chase, even though the latter has a larger market capitalization. +1 https://www.npr.org/se...
by nisiprius
Mon Jul 19, 2021 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial TV
Replies: 15
Views: 1371

Re: Financial TV

"Financial" and "TV" go together like pickles and chocolate. John C. Bogle wrote: Do not let transitory changes in stock prices alter your investment program. There is a lot of noise in the daily volatility of the stock market, which too often is "a tale told by an idiot, fu...
by nisiprius
Mon Jul 19, 2021 5:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: AGGU tracking descrepancy
Replies: 2
Views: 278

Re: AGGU tracking descrepancy

The picture is different, and "normal," for AGGG, "iShares Core Global Aggregate Bond UCITS ETF USD (Dist)" Aha. I'm almost sure it's the difference between "accumulating" (AGGU) and "distributing" (AGGG) ETFs. We don't have "accumulating" ETFs in th...
by nisiprius
Mon Jul 19, 2021 4:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: AGGU tracking descrepancy
Replies: 2
Views: 278

Re: AGGU tracking descrepancy

Wow. I'm a US investor and I'm not an ETF maven but that looks weird. Just generally I've never before seen a chart of an index ETF or fund in which the fund seemed to be tracking the benchmark that loosely. I don't know if it helps to observe that in the chart, the fund was outperforming its benchm...
by nisiprius
Mon Jul 19, 2021 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CD evaluation criteria
Replies: 6
Views: 587

Re: CD evaluation criteria

Some CDs' terms and conditions say early withdrawal is only allowed "at the bank's discretion" or "with the bank's permission" or "if we consent." That is, you do not necessarily have the right to demand an early withdrawal. Some do not contain this language. The terms ...