Search found 948 matches

by FireProof
Thu Feb 29, 2024 8:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When do electric cars stop making sense?
Replies: 210
Views: 16588

Re: When do electric cars stop making sense?

There are also free charging stations - with electricity prices that high, might be worth the hassle. Personally, electricity is only 24c/KwH, still try to charge for free.
by FireProof
Tue Jan 09, 2024 6:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Placing Order Before Market Open Matter for High Volume ETFs Like VTI?
Replies: 28
Views: 5488

Re: Does Placing Order Before Market Open Matter for High Volume ETFs Like VTI?

As I read this thread, I thought of the following questions: 1. Does a placing market order at 10 am matter for high volume ETFs like VTI? 2. Does a placing market order at noon matter for high volume ETFs like VTI? 3 Does a placing market order at 2 pm matter for high volume ETFs like VTI? 4. Does a placing market order at 15 minutes before market close matter for high volume ETFs like VTI? 5. Does a placing market order at 9:45 am matter for high volume ETFs like VTI? All of the above are very likely to get one a different price for VTI. Also for every buyer there is a seller. If it is disadvantageous for a buyer to make a buy at the market open, then is it advantageous for a seller to sell at the market open? Well, I think the idea is t...
by FireProof
Wed Dec 27, 2023 12:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cathie Wood - What's the story?
Replies: 83
Views: 14021

Re: Cathie Wood - What's the story?

I think she is connected to crypto, meme stocks and WallStreetBets, somehow. Just going by correlation, though, no expert.
by FireProof
Mon Dec 25, 2023 11:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Southern Spain in March
Replies: 47
Views: 4842

Re: Southern Spain in March

Seems like a lot of travelling, not much being. I'd probably pick one of Cordoba, Granada and Sevilla, but at least drop Cordoba or Seville. Even a shorter trip will take up much of the day and leave you tired between leaving one hotel, getting to the train station, having time to spare, getting to the new hotel and settlng in.
by FireProof
Mon Dec 18, 2023 11:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Telling our children about your net worth - pros and cons?
Replies: 181
Views: 27871

Re: Telling our children about your net worth - pros and cons?

Pro: They'll know not to expect anything from me
Con: They may feel sorry for me
by FireProof
Thu Dec 07, 2023 6:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sell house below market value
Replies: 66
Views: 6837

Re: Sell house below market value

brianplycatu wrote: Tue Dec 05, 2023 5:24 pm I am in the process of selling a second house below market value which according to the IRS involves gift tax. The sale price is 300K. The county property tax estimate is 350K. The actual value might be a little higher. If I face and audit how will the IRS determine the value?
My county property tax estimate is $400,000, ZIllow is $3.7 million - they are NOT a valuation of a property, just a construct for tax collection.

But as noted, current gift tax exemption is $12.9 million, so not a major concern.
by FireProof
Fri Dec 01, 2023 10:52 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: T5 engineering school or in-state T35 with full-ride?
Replies: 285
Views: 41409

Re: T5 engineering school or in-state T35 with full-ride?

+1 UF. It is also ranked #6 public university if that makes you feel better. The money you save by not going out-of-state can be used to help subsidize a co-op program or summer internships (either of which are *highly* recommended) or future grad school. Plus, don't discount the potential value of being in-state and having friends/family closer to help her when times get tough (which always happens). Good luck to your DD! Correct, it's true that, as far as overall university is concerned, UF is ranked higher than GT. But to us, that stat is not important. If we give any weight on ranking, it will be engineering undergraduate ranking, which is what my T5 vs T35 are based on. Personally, I (as a college prof) don't put much weight on these ...
by FireProof
Mon Nov 06, 2023 3:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a 120k car... yes, I need your help
Replies: 275
Views: 34109

Re: Buying a 120k car... yes, I need your help

David76 wrote: Sun Nov 05, 2023 10:39 pm You said you're planning to have a child soon. There are fun, practical, family-friendly alternatives out there, and for less money -- e.g. Volkswagen Golf R.
You said you're planning to have a child soon. There are fun, practical, family-friendly alternatives out there, and for less money -- e.g. a golden retriever.
by FireProof
Tue Oct 10, 2023 1:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FIREd - Smartest way to spend a large portion (or all) of my time in Italy?
Replies: 22
Views: 4263

Re: FIREd - Smartest way to spend a large portion (or all) of my time in Italy?

Cruise wrote: Tue Oct 10, 2023 1:03 am OP, are you aware that there are some town in Italy that are literally giving away homes to those who will live there. If you don't mind living apart from Lucca, you might check out numerous articles about this....
If he has $4.5 million, why would he want to live in an abandoned village that has to pay people just to live there instead of with his family?
by FireProof
Thu Oct 05, 2023 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Aren't you an above-average investor?
Replies: 169
Views: 17766

Re: Aren't you an above-average investor?

The fallacy is that you can simply learn to be an active investor who beats the market with higher risk-adjusted returns. It’s like saying you are going to learn how to become a Grandmaster in chess. The opposite, I would say. You can learn to be a grandmaster, and you can know precisely how good a chess player you are at any moment. On the other hand, it's far from clear that there are grandmasters in investing, and if you are one, there's no way of knowing (certainly not 'til the end of your investing career, when it's too late, and not even really then). No, you can’t simply learn to become a grandmaster. I could study chess for 30 years and while I’d likely improve, there’s no way on earth I’d become a grandmaster as I have no inate ab...
by FireProof
Thu Oct 05, 2023 12:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Italian Citizenship by Ancestor
Replies: 24
Views: 3679

Re: Italian Citizenship by Ancestor

It's become harder in recent years, but I know dozens who have managed it, it's still the easiest for sure.
by FireProof
Thu Sep 21, 2023 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Aren't you an above-average investor?
Replies: 169
Views: 17766

Re: Aren't you an above-average investor?

burritoLover wrote: Thu Sep 21, 2023 9:55 am The fallacy is that you can simply learn to be an active investor who beats the market with higher risk-adjusted returns. It’s like saying you are going to learn how to become a Grandmaster in chess.
The opposite, I would say. You can learn to be a grandmaster, and you can know precisely how good a chess player you are at any moment. On the other hand, it's far from clear that there are grandmasters in investing, and if you are one, there's no way of knowing (certainly not 'til the end of your investing career, when it's too late, and not even really then).
by FireProof
Tue Sep 05, 2023 6:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I Underpaid? (Lawyers)
Replies: 71
Views: 9284

Re: Am I Underpaid? (Lawyers)

cheesepep wrote: Sun Sep 03, 2023 9:47 pm A friend of mine used work at a law firm, and they were giving freshly minted lawyers $140,000 starting salary with zero experience and zero skills. This was in SoCal and 15 years ago. Based on this and without further location information from you, I would say that you are underpaid. But then again, I thought that those lawyers were super overpaid.
Starting salary in BigLaw is now $215k. But then you have to work in BigLaw.
by FireProof
Sun Sep 03, 2023 4:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash is a terrible long-term investment
Replies: 369
Views: 40291

Re: Cash is a terrible long-term investment

blimp wrote: Fri Sep 01, 2023 2:07 am I agree with the video. A 0% cash allocation is appropriate.

I'm not sure why people think 5% interest on a high-yield savings account when inflation is 7% is a good return. A negative real return is horrible as you are losing purchasing power.

If you are a long-term investor, temporary drops in the value of bond funds due to rising interest rates aren't very significant.
An investment decision is taken with regards to the alternatives, not to a platonic ideal. Unless equity returns are positively correlation with inflation (not historically true in the US), the higher the interest rate on cash, the more attractive it is relative to equities and thus the better it is as an investment.
by FireProof
Fri Aug 11, 2023 7:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: If/when to fly business class? (Length of flight vs. cost)
Replies: 207
Views: 27389

Re: If/when to fly business class? (Length of flight vs. cost)

I have taken 9 3+ hour flights this year: Rome-Abu Dhabi ($79), Abu Dhabi-Bombay ($150), Kochi-Amritsar ($75), Hyderabad-Cairo ($321), Alexandria-Istanbul ($135), Istanbul-San Francisco-London ($532), Madrid-San Francisco-Frankfurt ($456).I shudder to think of the cost of doing all that in business. Of course, a lot of people here make 10x as much as I do, but still the paying to sit in a chair reading argument would convince me up to a much higher income. Then again, I've never been rich and never flown business, so it's hard to evaluate.
by FireProof
Wed Jul 19, 2023 11:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are we buying too much house?
Replies: 216
Views: 17777

Re: Are we buying too much house?

Have you actually ran what you’re going to pay in taxes on that full 900k income through tax software? You would have only had a partial years worth of income for 2022. You keep mentioning the “take home” but withholdings are estimates dependent on what HR/you fill out on a form. One of our new hires owed 15k because he didn’t have enough withholding. Typing in 900k into smart asset tax estimator for a married couple in AZ gives a combined tax of 346k. A bare minimum 20% gross savings would be 180k, I think 25% would be wiser at 225k. That would leave 329k total (27k per month) for all other available spending. You want to spend 154k per year on that house. That’s about 47% of your total. Let’s say you then pay 5k a month in paying off loa...
by FireProof
Tue Jul 18, 2023 5:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: A Saturday in Los Angeles with 19-Year-Old Girls
Replies: 21
Views: 2969

Re: A Saturday in Los Angeles with 19-Year-Old Girls

I meant to say, but forgot, that the ideal place would be one where the girls could just wander off on their own and meet us back somewhere at a certain time. Thanks. Teen girls wandering alone in LA? Not the best idea. Post defunding the police and exploding homelessness, 2023 LA does not resemble 2000 LA. I think it’s fine for adults and near-adults to walk around LA. I think there are around 3-4 million of them who do so regularly. Compared to 2000, LA’s violent crime rate (and absolute numbers) is down by a third, so it’s actually safer. It’s approximately the same violent crime rate that’s experienced by Dallas, Phoenix, and Orlando and much less than half of what cities like St. Louis and Memphis have. Yeah, weird year to choose - I ...
by FireProof
Fri Jul 14, 2023 4:34 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: SAT Prep Tuitions - Opinions needed (timing/cost/etc..)
Replies: 101
Views: 8442

Re: SAT Prep Tuitions - Opinions needed (timing/cost/etc..)

Big Dog wrote: Mon Jul 10, 2023 3:18 pm
TomatoTomahto wrote: Mon Jul 10, 2023 2:42 pm I would have the kids take a timed SAT sample test. The PSAT, taken on one day, is not always indicative of future SAT results. After you have those results, you can consider your strategy.
Agreed. Note that the SAT contains Alg II questions so if they haven't yet had that math (likely) they may not do so well. (The PSAT math does not include Alg II questions.). Also, try the ACT. (But the ACT includes 4 trig problems.)

Personally, I would not start SAT prep Frosh year, unless they've already completed Geometry.
Yeah, I took the SAT when I was in 7th grade, got 760 English and 630 Math, even though Math is much easier, and I had no problem getting 800 in 10th grade - I just lacked simple math knowledge.
by FireProof
Sat Jul 01, 2023 4:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is this move to NYC worth it?
Replies: 109
Views: 9458

Re: Is this move to NYC worth it?

You can get a no-fee apartment in New York CIty if you want - I certainly never was willing to pay a broker for nothing (if you get a rent-stabilized apartment, the bribe is worth it, of course).

Remember that in New York, you don't have all the expenses of a car, so I find it cheaper than California, for example. Depending on lifestyle, some things could certainly be very expensive in Manhattan, but I don't find that it needs to be. There are Aldis and Lidls for groceries, street stands for produce are very cheap, lots of $12 lunch menus, especially for Asian food, etc. - what you have is a very wide range, from reasonably affordable to the most expensive in the world.
by FireProof
Thu Jun 29, 2023 4:00 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Sell the SF inherited house or rent it out for cash flow, appreciation, inherited low property tax
Replies: 15
Views: 1907

Re: Sell the SF inherited house or rent it out for cash flow, appreciation, inherited low property tax

runswithscissors wrote: Thu Jun 29, 2023 2:30 am
Jack FFR1846 wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2023 7:07 pm Sell! That rent is abysmally low for a $2M house. The 1% rule tells you that monthly gross rental should be at least $20,000. $5k or $6k isn't even close.
.
If people followed the 1% rule only the ghettoest areas of the country would have any investor-owned property. And of course these areas would generally be the worst places to invest in real estate. So basically the 1% rule in real estate should be loosely translated to "don't own investment property".
Honestly, I don't know if any city almost anywhere in the world qualifies at this point. Maybe some parts of Detroit or Cleveland and an active war zone like Kharkiv.
by FireProof
Mon Jun 26, 2023 3:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Review of book "Die with Zero"
Replies: 179
Views: 24370

Re: Review of book "Die with Zero"

TomatoTomahto wrote: Mon Jun 26, 2023 3:14 pm Tbh, the title alone is off-putting.
"Die Broke" was already taken, as I know since my dad listened to an audiobook of that on a long roadtrip with me and my sister.
by FireProof
Sun Jun 25, 2023 4:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Neighborhood/Area in Bogota to spend one week with girlfriend and 6 year old?
Replies: 9
Views: 1189

Re: Neighborhood/Area in Bogota to spend one week with girlfriend and 6 year old?

You are going to take your girlfriend and 6 yr old daughter (hers or yours) to Columbia for a week?? Country Summary: Violent crime, such as homicide, assault, and armed robbery, is widespread. Organized criminal activities, such as extortion, robbery, and kidnapping, are common in some areas. The National Liberation Army (ELN), Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia - People’s Army (FARC-EP), and Segunda Marquetalia terrorist organizations, as well as the Clan del Golfo and other criminal organizations, continue operating and carrying out attacks in Colombia. They may attack with little or no warning, targeting transportation hubs, markets/shopping malls, local government facilities, police stations, military facilities, hotels, clubs, re...
by FireProof
Sun Jun 18, 2023 11:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I Replace a Toyota Corolla with a Tesla 3?
Replies: 144
Views: 8731

Re: Should I Replace a Toyota Corolla with a Tesla 3?

Ouch, we're on 20c per kilowatt hour in the Bay Area. Getting around 4.3 miles/kwh with a Bolt. You're gonna need to spend a lot of time at the free Volta chargers to make the math work! Our only investment in charging infrastructure was cutting a small hole in the garage door.
by FireProof
Fri Jun 09, 2023 11:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Defense against the dark arts - Pickpockets!
Replies: 123
Views: 13028

Re: Defense against the dark arts - Pickpockets!

I've lived in Spain for years and never been randomly asked for a passport - there's no need to carry it around (unless you are black, sad to say).

I've never been especially cautious and never been pickpocketed either, although I agree the danger is higher than in the US - just don't leave anything in a back pocket and don't leave phones unattended in a public place. Never seen any robbing with force, either, unlike in Italy, where I have witnessed men drive by on scooters and grab phones out of people's hands.
by FireProof
Wed May 24, 2023 2:35 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best cities with lots of outdoor/hiking activities and good year round weather
Replies: 248
Views: 25331

Re: Best cities with lots of outdoor/hiking activities and good year round weather

The Bay Area certainly ticks those boxes but of course cost of living is pretty high… Great weather, close to many recreational options- almost all of which involve spending time in a car in traffic. Just so you know. The OP wanted to be within 30 minutes of trailheads. That would be at best limited in the Bay Area. You might be able to go up to Yosemite or Lake Tahoe after work on Friday but you might not get there until midnight. In Santa Cruz, you can be in Big Basin or Henry Cowell within 30 minutes. In Palo Alto, you can be in Portola Redwoods State Park (or just Foothills Park) within 30 minutes (Henry Cowell and Big Basin are <50 minutes), and obviously places like Atherton and Los Gatos are even closer. Then there are a lot of open...
by FireProof
Tue Apr 25, 2023 2:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Declining cities - property values?
Replies: 57
Views: 4824

Re: Declining cities - property values?

Well, the Boglehead would assume that a) your home is primarily for living, not for investing b) you're not too much smarter than the market. Declining cities are already cheap, so it's a low cost place to live, and if it declines less than expected, your investment will turn out well too. Hence, assuming that the factors that brought you to that city are still in force, no particular action need be taken.
by FireProof
Sun Mar 26, 2023 10:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is FIRE hokum?
Replies: 66
Views: 5132

Re: Is FIRE hokum?

The concept of FIRE gets thrown a lot, but it seems lo largely be baloney. I saw someone posting on here about retiring early, their withdrawal rate, which seemed high in general and especially for a potentially 60 year retirement brought them to roughly 130% of the federal poverty line. It seems FIRE is really just an aspirational thing. To me it seems miserable to retire, but not be able to afford much of the stuff that I would want to do with unlimited time e.g. travel, pursue hobbies, split my time between my present location and the beach. I get that’s not everyone, but leaving the workforce very early to flirt with the poverty line doesn’t seem to be my idea of a good time. A non-trivial chunk of the stories/blogs seem predicated on ...
by FireProof
Fri Mar 03, 2023 11:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is the Boglehead way of owning a car the best way?
Replies: 58
Views: 7309

Re: Is the Boglehead way of owning a car the best way?

I bought a 2001 Toyota Avalon in 2011 for $4000. Lasted 12 years (died this week), so pretty cheap.
by FireProof
Mon Feb 13, 2023 2:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Suggestions for Obtaining Cash in Europe
Replies: 75
Views: 5301

Re: Suggestions for Obtaining Cash in Europe

I use Charles Schwab Investor Checking + a Capital One Mastercard credit card (but Capital One is not great for online purchases while abroad because they always use 2-factor authentication to your American phone number). I've spent about 5 out of the last 10 years in Europe, mostly in Spain, Germany and Italy. Germany can be occasionally finicky with credit cards, since they're very paranoid about them and have a weird third kind of card (American cards used to not work to buy Ubahn tickets for example). Despite being American, I've always found cash easier to get in Europe than the US - most ATMs are free, while that's hard to find in the US nowadays. Of course, Schwab reimburses ATM fees, so it doesn't actually cost me anything, but I fe...
by FireProof
Sun Feb 05, 2023 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In 2023, What Percentage Of Global Equity Markets Are US Equities?
Replies: 18
Views: 2060

Re: In 2023, What Percentage Of Global Equity Markets Are US Equities?

https://www.sifma.org/resources/research/research-quarterly-equities/ The U.S. equity markets are the largest in the world and continue to be among the deepest, most liquid and most efficient, representing 46.2% of the $111 trillion global equity market cap, or $51 trillion. This is 4.3x the next largest market, China. U.S. market share has averaged 37.4% over the last 10 years, troughing at 32.9% in 2012 and peaking at 46.2% as of 3Q22. However this is by market cap, not the size of the respective economies. Depending on how you measure it, US is about 25% of world GDP (last time I looked). China is a similar size or somewhat smaller, depending on measurement. China is of course less than 5% of world stock markets (last time I checked). P...
by FireProof
Sun Feb 05, 2023 3:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need a DURABLE laptop / Chromebook suggestion
Replies: 33
Views: 2520

Re: Need a DURABLE laptop / Chromebook suggestion

Definitely second Dell Refurbished - super cheap for a high-quality screen, SSD, fast i7 processors and the option for a decent dedicated (business) graphics card, and the Latitudes are tanks (the Precision 5540 is a nice computer, too, but maybe more teen-vulnerable). The key is to wait until their frequent 40% off, 45% off or 50% off everything sales. I've already gotten three, and all three still work after quite a few years and a lot of hard knocks while traveling around the world and the occasional spill (I just upgraded for newer specs, not because they stopped working).
by FireProof
Wed Jan 18, 2023 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Market Game with my HS daughter
Replies: 76
Views: 6909

Re: Stock Market Game with my HS daughter

If the goal is to win, you have to be very anti-Boglehead. In 2 months, a high-variance strategy (either short or long, but 50% ain't bad) is sure to beat a cautious average. Probably 100% SQQQ or TQQQ (3x leveraged Nasdaq, short and long) and call it a day
by FireProof
Wed Jan 11, 2023 6:37 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Possible Business Exit - $3M
Replies: 8
Views: 1535

Re: Possible Business Exit - $3M

fljaguars wrote: Tue Jan 10, 2023 12:47 pm With an $8k taxable income for tax year 2023, that would put me at 0% long term capital gain rate. Is this correct?

No - $3,000,800 taxable income would put you in a marginal LCTG bracket of 20%.
by FireProof
Wed Jan 11, 2023 3:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Public vs Private vs Elite Private Schools
Replies: 101
Views: 14213

Re: Public vs Private vs Elite Private Schools

Just because a private school is crappy doesn't mean they give you a break on tuition, so I'd say your options are public vs elite private. Elite private schools definitely have a different culture and network, so it depends on how valuable that is to you (and it could be a negative, too, if you don't want a spoiled rich kid bubble).
by FireProof
Tue Jan 10, 2023 2:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Slow Travel and Financial Planning
Replies: 27
Views: 4031

Re: Slow Travel and Financial Planning

I mean, budgets will wary even more than for budgets living in the US, and those already vary a lot. But certainly it was much cheaper than living in the US for me.
by FireProof
Mon Jan 09, 2023 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are iBonds still a no-brainer?
Replies: 219
Views: 34900

Re: Are iBonds still a no-brainer?

I invested in iBonds for my spouce and I: 20k Dec 2021, 20k Jan 2022 and 10k just now 2023. I was going to invest another 10k but thought I should inquire first if there's any other similar investment I should consider. If your portfolio is still in need of inflation protected US savings bonds, then sure, they're a no-brainer. However, if your portfolio is low on US or international equities, then buying I-bonds doesn't help. Regards, He's asking if they are a better investment than alternatives in a general sense. And no good in saying it's an efficient market, so all investments are equal by definition, because IBond rates are not set by the market. It was reasonable to believe that pretty much everybody should have bought the maximum IB...
by FireProof
Sun Jan 08, 2023 1:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cars: which have Best driver assist capabilities?
Replies: 67
Views: 6567

Re: Cars: which have Best driver assist capabilities?

Tesla says Autopilot has been engaged for over 9 billion miles. In the most recent reported quarter 2022 Q3, they recorded a crash every 6.26 million miles with Autopilot technology vs 1.71 million miles without. They say these crash stats include those where others are at fault such as 35% of Autopilot crashes are rear-ends. https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport If you're looking for convenience instead of safety such as being able to text while driving, then current Autopilot doesn't allow that and actually warns you if it detects phone usage. Very interesting reports. I'd recommend reading them, and not relying on the numeric scores. Totally unfair, though. People engage AutoPilot for monotonous long-distance freeway driving where, ...
by FireProof
Wed Jan 04, 2023 2:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are you seeing home prices go down in your area?
Replies: 49
Views: 4725

Re: Are you seeing home prices go down in your area?

Housing prices are on a downward trend. New offers ($ per sq ft) in 2023 most places in the country should by at least 15% less when compared to the per sq ft price paid on the Q2 2022 closing prices. Individual houses obviously will be different because of the condition and updates. Expect to see more decline in areas where lot of new inventory is under construction and will be sold this year Speaking of new construction, builders here locally seem to be slowing down drastically. There aren't very many new homes being built. Instead the existing inventories on new builds are getting incentivized via lower APR rates (although listing price isn't budging). That may be local. Currently there are 777 thousand single family units (red) under c...
by FireProof
Wed Jan 04, 2023 2:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Leaving the Bay Area: should I rent out my low mortgage rate house?
Replies: 61
Views: 5409

Re: Leaving the Bay Area: should I rent out my low mortgage rate house?

If you had a low tax rate, that would be a real asset. A low mortgage rate doesn't seem like great shakes though, because, as mentioned, it will require getting a high-rate mortgage for the new property. So it comes down to whether you want to be a landlord, and it seems like you never did before, so why would you suddenly want to remotely? But, hey, I told my dad that he shouldn't put all his investments in Silicon Valley and Santa Cruz area rental properties, and he's had the last laugh over the past 40 years.
by FireProof
Fri Dec 30, 2022 9:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Balancing housing in HCOL area vs. FIRE ambitions?
Replies: 89
Views: 8320

Re: Can’t buy house in HCOL despite high income

coachd50 wrote: Thu Dec 29, 2022 10:06 pm
StewedCarrot wrote: Thu Dec 29, 2022 9:58 pm 2x-3x income is nonsense. Today 5x is reasonable.

I’m in an HCOL area and we saved and finally bought after renting for 20 years.

Try not to compare yourself to people with inherited wealth.

Keep at it!
What do you feel has changed that makes 5x "reasonable" or prudent?
Rental costs (the alternative) are far higher now. In addition, housing costs are the majority of expenses in HCOL now, so the need to retain money for other things is minimal. It's a lot different having a $100k income, a $500k house and non-housing expenses of 50K per year than a 300k income, a $1.5 million house and non-housing expenses of $70k per year.
by FireProof
Fri Dec 23, 2022 11:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are your LEAST favorite vacation destinations
Replies: 399
Views: 43742

Re: What are your LEAST favorite vacation destinations

For me, the Philippines in general. Friendly, honest people, easy to communicate, but terrible food and uninteresting culture for a Westerner (shopping malls and churches), El Nido has nice beaches, but I'm not a huge beach guy. Manila is a nightmare to get around, The island of Bohol, Cebu City and Puerto Princesa were nothing special. Malapascua was cute, but not worth a special trip. And nearby, generally Indonesia as well. Pretty good food and interesting cultural things, but awful transport in general and everyone is trying to scam you to the point that it's hard to do things (and I speak Indonesian). The contrast with Malaysia is stark. I did like Yokyakarta, but wouldn't recommend Bromo (mostly because of the ecosystem of scammers ar...
by FireProof
Mon Nov 07, 2022 10:13 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should my kids attend online college to save money?
Replies: 82
Views: 6459

Re: Should my kids attend online college to save money?

Nope, even if you were convinced that your kids would learn well online, hardly a given, that is a pretty minor function of college.
by FireProof
Thu Oct 06, 2022 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Maybe Wade Pfau was over-optimistic … [New study on Safe Withdrawal Rate]
Replies: 260
Views: 26670

Re: Maybe Wade Pfau was over-optimistic … [New study on Safe Withdrawal Rate]

nigel_ht wrote: Thu Oct 06, 2022 8:07 am
vineviz wrote: Thu Oct 06, 2022 8:02 am I'm not suggesting that the right reaction to this paper is to keep saving until you've accumulated 50x expected withdrawals, but rather that research like this provides useful context for the exceptional luck US investors have had over the past 80 years or so.
What you call “exceptional luck” I call “dominant global position”.
The luck is to live and invest in the country that had "dominant global position" as you call it. US investors didn't choose that, they were just lucky enough to have been born here or to see this as the best immigration option, usually for other reasons than stock market returns. Importantly, they are unlikely to be in a market with "dominant global position" for the next 80 years.
by FireProof
Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Favorite music from the 90s?
Replies: 76
Views: 6211

Re: Favorite music from the 90s?

To add to what's been mentioned:

Jeff Buckley - Grace
Magnetic Fields - 69 Love Songs
Portishead - Dummy
Bjork - Homogenic
Fiona Apple - When the Pawn
Built to Spill - Perfect from Now On

The Roots - Things Fall Apart
Mos Def & Talib Kweli Are Black Star
Digable Planets - Blowout Comb
Dj Shadow - Endtroducing...
by FireProof
Sat Sep 17, 2022 2:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to Stop Obsessing w/ FIRE (Specifically the "RE" Part) and Spend Money
Replies: 114
Views: 13879

Re: How to Stop Obsessing w/ FIRE (Specifically the "RE" Part) and Spend Money

Cutting it tight is a good way to do. Despite my cautious nature, I have managed to spend way more than 4% per year since retiring 10 years ago, hoping I'll beat the odds!
by FireProof
Sun Sep 11, 2022 10:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: NYC low pay state job vs relocate to cheaper area
Replies: 21
Views: 2219

Re: NYC low pay state job vs relocate to cheaper area

A 3-5 hour commute is simply not sustainable. Pretty much any option is likely to be better than the status quo. If you plan on staying, I would be very diligent about income-limited housing lotteries in the city (possibly being a state employee might qualify you for something special as well?). Your housing costs would go down (and be rent-stabilized) and ditching the car and the massive commute would be a huge cost (and life) savings as well. I might move to the city first (even if that means a roommate initially) and establish an address in Brooklyn Community Board 1 (Greenpoint and Williamsburg) since that is the area with the most good lotteries, and 50% of slots are reserved for current CB residents Here's a $1542 rent-stabilized 1-be...
by FireProof
Fri Sep 02, 2022 10:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Vanguard website succumbs to "Fisher-Price" UI design
Replies: 847
Views: 116497

Re: Vanguard website succumbs to "Fisher-Price" UI design

Maybe senior citizen UI design? Toddlers nowadays only use mobile, and they are experts, but most Vanguard users grew up with the telegraph.
by FireProof
Tue Aug 30, 2022 4:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirees aren't spending their nestegg - how can we do better?
Replies: 148
Views: 13090

Re: Retirees aren't spending their nestegg - how can we do better?

And that's the general population, imagine Bogleheads! At first glance it seems like a lot of utility is left on the table - people spending tens of thousands less per year 100% of the time to avoid risks from 0.1% chance black swans (which would probably just result in reduced spending anyway). On the other hand, the empirical happiness derived from spending is a mixed bag, and the happiness of a miser seeing numbers rise on a spreadsheet is very real.