Not just you, but we might just be getting old.
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- Wed Mar 27, 2024 6:40 am
- Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
- Topic: Blocking Member Posts
- Replies: 17
- Views: 1679
Re: Blocking Member Posts
- Tue Mar 26, 2024 2:17 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Theoretically, would VTI be an effective long term retirement investment, even when held in a taxable account ?
- Replies: 34
- Views: 4297
Re: Theoretically, would VTI be an effective long term retirement investment, even when held in a taxable account ?
A stock investment is not an emergency fund. An emergency fund is a tool that keeps a person from selling stocks due to calamity at the wrong time. Never let recency bias influence your perception about the safety of stocks. You can lose money. You may have to wait ten years or more for a recovery. Perhaps there is no recovery. Hypothetical low earners need to acknowledge this.
- Sun Mar 24, 2024 7:02 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: "22 of the funniest novels since Catch-22" (acc. to the NYT)
- Replies: 35
- Views: 4056
Re: "22 of the funniest novels since Catch-22" (acc. to the NYT)
Never heard of any of them. I have found that much comedy has a short shelf life -- not re-readable. I suppose if you must list 20, there will be more brass than gold. Here are a few I like and have read more than once: Anything by P. G. Woodhouse. I've mostly read the "Jeeves" books. But also found The Clicking of Cuthbert pretty good. ("Clicking" is golf and I don't even like golf but the writing is hilarious.) Three Men on a Boat by Jerome K. Jerome. A Confederacy of Dunces by John Kennedy Toole. There is more than humor in this one. Various Damon Runyon stories. He is unique. There are more but those are the ones that came to mind. Thank you bertilak, this was going to be exactly what I would have posted. Also, Catc...
- Sun Mar 17, 2024 6:13 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Bond Investing
- Replies: 21
- Views: 3022
Re: Bond Investing
Bill Bernstein is a great man. No surprises there. Vineviz would also agree.hudson wrote: ↑Sun Mar 17, 2024 5:59 am Bill Bernstein agrees with owning long TIPS if you can hold until maturity. He also likes short treasuries.
viewtopic.php?p=7210355#p7210355
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/art ... at-age-104
- Sun Mar 17, 2024 6:07 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Please check my thinking about changing my Roth account from VTIAX to VTSAX
- Replies: 42
- Views: 3760
Re: Please check my thinking about changing my Roth account from VTIAX to VTSAX
Clearly you wished to put your stock eggs in that basket. Many people agree because you are hoping for the greatest impact on your tax free balance. However, for some reason you selected to go 100% international. Why not Total World? It isn't that big of a change. It's still 100% stocks. It free floats with whatever is doing well. Don't have to adjust anything inside the Roth, but you can still keep your overall international/domestic allocation the same by tweaking something somewhere else. This is my fund of choice for Roth/HSA. Because the US started doing very well, they disqualified the fund for the foreign tax credit in taxable accounts. This also drove the motivation to push it to a tax-deferred account and keep US stock funds in tax...
- Sun Mar 17, 2024 5:55 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Theoretically, would VTI be an effective long term retirement investment, even when held in a taxable account ?
- Replies: 34
- Views: 4297
Re: Theoretically, would VTI be an effective long term retirement investment, even when held in a taxable account ?
a) Of course lower income should "get into the game" and invest in stocks.
b) Taxable account is only one possible place to hold it. It isn't necessarily the best place.
c) People of modest means are probably the most likely to need an emergency fund in place so they don't liquidate at a bad time due to calamity.
b) Taxable account is only one possible place to hold it. It isn't necessarily the best place.
c) People of modest means are probably the most likely to need an emergency fund in place so they don't liquidate at a bad time due to calamity.
- Sun Mar 17, 2024 5:36 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Bond Investing
- Replies: 21
- Views: 3022
Re: Bond Investing
Can you help me understand this statement better: "If you value safety in your "fixed income" and not see it evaporate 13% (intermediate term bond fund) to 30% (long term bond fund), stick to I-bonds." What are the percentages? Those are the losses experienced by Total Bond fund and Long Term Treasury Bond fund, respectively, in 2022. Just for clarity, loss of this kind is only felt if you sell your bonds at a loss. Rising interest rates caused people that bought into that fund yesterday to seem to have lost money today because the NAV adjusts for the new values going forward. However, people that bought yesterday fully expected they would be holding that fund for roughly the fund's duration, and during that time they w...
- Fri Mar 15, 2024 11:03 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Bond Investing
- Replies: 21
- Views: 3022
Re: Bond Investing
Take risk on the stock side (which you are doing). This is why I'd go VAIPX - Medium Duration Bonds inflation protected. Nominal bonds may keep up with inflation, but there is a risk they will not. Although I'd like to be able to say that TIPS will keep up with inflation, that is too strong of a statement. They may not due to negative real rates. However, the fact is that TIPS, unlike nominals, are indexed to inflation. This removes a component of risk; therefore, a TIPS is less risky than a nominal with the same characteristics.
- Fri Mar 08, 2024 5:26 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Argument against people that say stock market is rigged, so don’t invest in it
- Replies: 80
- Views: 5750
Re: Argument against people that say stock market is rigged, so don’t invest in it
Plenty of great responses. The brother in law could be brought around to a Boglehead philosophy, but he would possibly be a person with a low allocation to stocks. Try to explain what you consider to be the benefits of total market investing and passive indexing. Then bring up asset allocation percentages. Discuss the data that indicate neither 100% stocks nor 100% bonds (at the extremes) are "better" than 80/20 max in terms of total return and volatility dampening. This bridges it to where stocks and bonds are cooperative due to being uncorrelated. You can trust bonds as being fair, but you can't completely turn your back on stocks. Point out that even socialist countries that provide strong safety nets for their populations do n...
- Thu Mar 07, 2024 6:22 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Argument against people that say stock market is rigged, so don’t invest in it
- Replies: 80
- Views: 5750
Re: Argument against people that say stock market is rigged, so don’t invest in it
You need to bring risk into this conversation. Even if sports betting is fair (even if more fair than the stock market), clearly some bets are riskier than others. What does the friend judge the risk of the stock market to be? Hard-core capitalists likely think the risk is near zero. Using history as a guide, and considering some timeframe, you can clearly show that despite the ups and downs along the way, the benefits were very great -- in fact, you could see it as riskless. In other words, as long as you don't sell at a loss, like Warren Buffet tells us never to do, there was no risk. Also passive investing takes the work out of the equation. You can let it ride. The other side is the reward versus the risk. Many feel the reward potential...
- Tue Mar 05, 2024 9:52 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Tips for Language Learning (2024)
- Replies: 18
- Views: 1441
Re: Tips for Language Learning (2024)
Zero cost approach is simply "like" videos of your chosen language on TikTok. I find it is so much better to learn in a manner free of stress that might even be fun. At least this idea can supplement whatever other decision you make.
- Tue Mar 05, 2024 9:37 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Good Modern Science Fiction
- Replies: 766
- Views: 150970
Re: Good Modern Science Fiction
The Three Body Problem. The first of a trilogy. Quite amazing. Truly a masterpiece. :thumbsup Indeed, thanks for the recommendations here. This is quite good. Actually there are 4 books in the series. They are making it into a video series streaming on Netflix starting March 21. I say start reading the books now before the video series ruins it for everybody -- as they always tend to do. I suspect only people who read books understand what I'm talking about. I know what you're talking about :) . BTW, strictly speaking, there are only 3 books in the series. The 4th one is a fan book. Thanks for the heads up, Larry. I enjoyed book 4 as well. Read through some Amazon comments, and people seem to agree (with some complaints). They bundle them ...
- Tue Mar 05, 2024 7:09 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Good Modern Science Fiction
- Replies: 766
- Views: 150970
Re: Good Modern Science Fiction
Indeed, thanks for the recommendations here. This is quite good. Actually there are 4 books in the series. They are making it into a video series streaming on Netflix starting March 21. I say start reading the books now before the video series ruins it for everybody -- as they always tend to do. I suspect only people who read books understand what I'm talking about.
- Mon Jan 01, 2024 5:50 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: is finishing a garage floor recommended? sealing, epoxy, something else?
- Replies: 37
- Views: 6739
Re: is finishing a garage floor recommended? sealing, epoxy, something else?
To the earlier comment about special shoes to put the flakes on, you don't need anything like that. The flakes go on top of the wet second coat. You sprinkle them on as you paint, in sections. Again this won't matter for you. Not impossible but far more difficult without the shoe slip-ons. You will have to paint a section and then throw the flakes into the freshly painted area, carefully aiming and trying to get just the right amount to particular areas. I'm nowhere near that coordinated. You will have to ensure that none of the thrown flakes end up in the next area you are going to paint. Yes, I'm sure you can develop your technique to make it work. On the other hand, the shoe slip-ons allow you paint the entire floor, then go back in and...
- Wed Dec 27, 2023 4:29 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: is finishing a garage floor recommended? sealing, epoxy, something else?
- Replies: 37
- Views: 6739
Re: is finishing a garage floor recommended? sealing, epoxy, something else?
It's recommended when it makes sense, i.e. if you just moved into a new house or moved out of an old one and wish to fix it up to sell. At that point in time you have a window of opportunity where there is nothing in the garage, and you should take advantage of it. On the other hand, to do all this work with having to empty out the garage for several days makes things so much more difficult. Bottom line I think you will be pleased with the results. a) I don't notice anything slippery, so don't get caught up in that. b) Anybody I talk to do not bother with those flakes in the paint. If you do that, you need to buy some special shoe slip on devices that allow you to walk in it while you apply the flakes. You'd need to pre-buy those shoes typi...
- Fri May 12, 2023 7:43 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Who should not invest in the market portfolio
- Replies: 466
- Views: 32332
Re: Who should not invest in the market portfolio
I have spent enough time on Reddit and other social media platforms lately to appreciate this forum a lot. Almost everyone is in same boat here, and the bickering I see is over the tiniest of differences. The portfolios, allocations, and ETFs that people recommend on Reddit, YouTube, and other places is comical. I'm convinced by my experience on the internet and chatting with people in real life that the large majority of retail investors have absolutely no idea what they are doing. It sadly far outweighs the gospel of the boglehead community and I am grateful the good word spread to me through that noise, and I think it's growing in the public domain. Indeed, anyone who buys and holds simple low cost index funds, even if tilted to factors...
- Tue May 02, 2023 12:06 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Do you really need TIPS if you have a high allocation to equities?
- Replies: 84
- Views: 7324
Re: Do you really need TIPS if you have a high allocation to equities?
Do you really need equities if you have enough TIPS? Ask Groucho.
- Tue May 02, 2023 12:03 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Were you entertained by Investor Day on Succession (s4, ep6)
- Replies: 6
- Views: 796
Re: Were you entertained by Investor Day on Succession (s4, ep6)
Not helpful, sorry. I've only seen those clips of Steve Jobs or Bill Gates making fools of themselves in front of people. Perhaps it was realistic from that perspective. Funny how they expect the guy to respond to a tweet that was made during his presentation. I just think it's all fantasy. Where I work we have the "boots on the ground" people, and then we have the corporate big shots that float around in the cloud. I imagine this was an audience filled with the later. Who knows what those people do?
- Mon May 01, 2023 7:49 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: why do people deposit more than the fdic limit?
- Replies: 64
- Views: 6883
Re: why do people deposit more than the fdic limit?
I don't know how things may be at every bank/credit union. My experience is that it is difficult to deal with the paperwork and the ramifications. Call me crazy. I think possibly this is the angle the OP is looking for words about. Specifically, I do understand that I can register my CDs, for example, differently, so that each one would exist in its own 250k insurance bubble. However, I never quite know what the best way is to do this. People give examples of registering one individually, one with their wife, one with each kid, etc. This situation is not universal for everybody. We all don't live in a 1950's Leave It To Beaver universe in our suburban homes with 2.4 kids. Therefore, if I want to register things differently, I have to think,...
- Wed Apr 19, 2023 10:44 am
- Forum: Non-US Investing
- Topic: US expat returning to US for one year study leave - taxation question
- Replies: 5
- Views: 966
Re: US expat returning to US for one year study leave - taxation question
The question would be for the 2 tax years 2023 and 2024, in which let's say for each year I was living abroad for 180 days and living in U.S. for 180 days. So in 2023 for example, let's say I first earned 40k employment income abroad, and then $40k fellowship "income" living in the U.S. - Is it the case that for 2023 I would be taxed on that like any other US resident as if the whole $80k was earned in the US, with no kind of foreign deduction/exclusion allowed? And then the same for 2024? - Or does the fact that the first $40k employment income was earned while a foreign resident mean that part (only) can be excluded by FEIE? - Or would the whole of 2023 still be classed as non-resident with FEIE, then the whole of 2024 classed ...
- Wed Apr 19, 2023 7:52 am
- Forum: Non-US Investing
- Topic: US expat returning to US for one year study leave - taxation question
- Replies: 5
- Views: 966
Re: US expat returning to US for one year study leave - taxation question
Clearly you meet the physical presence test as not living in the US and so eligible for the FEIE. Picture a calendar, and on it you would mark the days that you lived outside the US and then came back and then left again. Once you are back, you are no longer eligible for FEIE, but that doesn't wipe away the places on the calendar that you marked as being out of the country. Tax companies have software that allow you to input this data, and it will work for them in determining how to file it. If trying do-it-yourself, which is possibly why you are asking, just need to be sure you're doing it right. It may pay to use a tax service that specializes in the this. Note that since you are always filing taxes for the previous calendar year, that ty...
- Sat Apr 01, 2023 6:36 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Investing in Japan from 1991 to Today
- Replies: 70
- Views: 9932
Re: Investing in Japan from 1991 to Today
If you believe the US market is over-priced, then you might conclude that people can't price things right. In that case, investing in value stocks which are perceived to be priced better relative to their inherent worth, is still working in the same reference frame where people couldn't price things right. Total market investing frees you from these concerns.smooth_rough wrote: ↑Fri Mar 24, 2023 9:34 pm Not sure that Japan and US are comparable. But if you believe US market is over-priced, then you might tilt toward value investing for equities. While treasuries could be used for stability.
- Wed Mar 08, 2023 9:44 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Is It a Cardinal Sin to Withdraw from Tax Deferred First
- Replies: 108
- Views: 13393
Re: Is It a Cardinal Sin to Withdraw from Tax Deferred First
I may be too simplistic, but bear in mind the tax rate to be paid on the gains in taxable is capped at a fixed percentage, e.g. not tied to income. This is the beauty of stocks in taxable. OTOH, anything you pull out of TIRA/401k is taxed at income rate.
Surely the takeaway is that there isn't going to be a rule of thumb that satisfies everybody. It's good to have diversity of types of accounts, and you do your best to optimize.
- Tue Mar 07, 2023 3:06 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Is It a Cardinal Sin to Withdraw from Tax Deferred First
- Replies: 108
- Views: 13393
Re: Is It a Cardinal Sin to Withdraw from Tax Deferred First
I know the standard advice is to withdraw from taxable accounts first in retirement. But if one wants to leave their taxable account for heirs (for the stepped-up basis), how damaging is it to withdraw from tax-deferred first and leave taxable alone as long as possible? Is there a way to calculate this? Within the last few years before death it's generally a mistake to sell low basis assets instead of withdrawing from tax-deferred accounts if the money is going to heirs. But if you're decades out from death, probably a mistake to spend tax protected accounts before taxable accounts for the following reasons: Tax protected growth Asset protection The IRA tax protected growth can be stretched Higher basis on the taxable assets so less tax co...
- Tue Mar 07, 2023 6:47 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Is It a Cardinal Sin to Withdraw from Tax Deferred First
- Replies: 108
- Views: 13393
Re: Is It a Cardinal Sin to Withdraw from Tax Deferred First
I know the standard advice is to withdraw from taxable accounts first in retirement. But if one wants to leave their taxable account for heirs (for the stepped-up basis), how damaging is it to withdraw from tax-deferred first and leave taxable alone as long as possible? Is there a way to calculate this? There's no pat answer to this question, and I've never heard the advice you're citing as "standard." Personally, I plan to withdraw from my tax-deferred as soon as I retire, well before RMDs, in order not to have huge RMDs (and tax consequences) when I'm forced to pull the money at 73. Indeed, this post above represents standard advice. The only reason not to withdraw from tax deferred is that prior to reaching 59.5 you will be pe...
- Fri Mar 03, 2023 4:03 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: ACA policy: removed spouse, unexpected result
- Replies: 33
- Views: 3346
Re: ACA policy: removed spouse, unexpected result
May I ask a possibly dumb question? The OP gives a premise in which Medicaid is not desired, but ACA is. Why is this? Does being on Medicaid (versus ACA) lead to sub-standard health care/lack of options? During job loss, I've been on ACA 3 times. At least 1 of the 3 had me on a plan that couldn't have been any better than Medicaid, e.g. I had to seek healthcare at specifically defined clinics where you took a number, waited forever, etc. I guess I'm wondering if ACA can be just as bad as Medicaid might be if you have a bad plan (low-end plan). On the other hand, there may not be a cap on how good it could be. As usual I think that things are very apples and oranges for comparison purposes for all of us living in various places with things a...
- Wed Feb 22, 2023 5:26 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: ACA Subsidies vs Roth Conversions
- Replies: 81
- Views: 10340
Re: ACA Subsidies vs Roth Conversions
With respect, it couldn't be more opposite. Not taking charity from the government isn't a tax. Assuming that you are getting your health insurance through your employer, every year you are receiving $5,000 to $8,000 of "charity" from the government as untaxed income. And the strange thing about it that the higher your income, the higher the benefit. It's funny the way some people think tax benefits on one part of their tax return are their due while tax benefits on another part of their tax return are welfare. Yes, with all due respect, you might want to read some of the other posts where others have made that position clear. Explaining Health Care Reform: Questions About Health Insurance Subsidies Health insurance is expensive ...
- Sat Feb 18, 2023 6:13 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: ACA Subsidies vs Roth Conversions
- Replies: 81
- Views: 10340
Re: ACA Subsidies vs Roth Conversions
Sounds like a cogent argument to me. That link provided for previous discussion on these matters has several posts suggesting people can ease any concerns they may have by donating to charity.furwut wrote: ↑Sat Feb 18, 2023 9:32 amThe question I pose is why would it be okay for some people to receive untaxed income in the form of employer provided health insurance (no matter their income or assets) and not for others to receive the equivalent tax credit for purchasing insurance individually?
- Fri Feb 17, 2023 3:12 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: ACA Subsidies vs Roth Conversions
- Replies: 81
- Views: 10340
Re: ACA Subsidies vs Roth Conversions
So, why am I posting? It is only in the interest that this forum doesn't become a FIRE forum. Dude, you don’t mind if I call you Dude, do you? :D I think you’ve lost the battle regarding FIRE. I can’t count how often in the discussions about RMDs and Roth conversions someone points out that high RMDs just prove that you were employed too long. There are threads about engineering a low income to increase need-based aid for students. Personally, I find a lot of it distasteful, but it is the Zeitgeist. See my signature. It's fine. I'm not trying to judge people. I think the arguments being discussed are somewhat loose, though, meaning that we all see everything through the prism of our own self-interest. Specifically there is no law that says...
- Fri Feb 17, 2023 12:01 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: ACA Subsidies vs Roth Conversions
- Replies: 81
- Views: 10340
Re: ACA Subsidies vs Roth Conversions
So, why am I posting? It is only in the interest that this forum doesn't become a FIRE forum. Dude, you don’t mind if I call you Dude, do you? :D I think you’ve lost the battle regarding FIRE. I can’t count how often in the discussions about RMDs and Roth conversions someone points out that high RMDs just prove that you were employed too long. There are threads about engineering a low income to increase need-based aid for students. Personally, I find a lot of it distasteful, but it is the Zeitgeist. See my signature. It's fine. I'm not trying to judge people. I think the arguments being discussed are somewhat loose, though, meaning that we all see everything through the prism of our own self-interest. Specifically there is no law that says...
- Fri Feb 17, 2023 5:03 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: ACA Subsidies vs Roth Conversions
- Replies: 81
- Views: 10340
Re: ACA Subsidies vs Roth Conversions
So I am early 60s and had planned to do Roth conversions from age 60 to 63 or 64. However, the government greatly enhanced health care subsidies available through the ACA even for those who have a high net worth. My marginal Federal tax rate at this point is 22% so it's not like it was a slam dunk to begin with (to do conversions) but now that I am getting a $5,700 annual subsidy, it makes it even less attractive. My thinking is that as I analyze whether to do Roth conversions I need to factor in these subsidies. Don't you agree? I also need to factor in the IRMAA premiums as I get close to 65. Just wanted to check my thinking. The loss of tax credits for ACA as you incur more income doing Roth Conversions is just like an additional tax. Y...
- Thu Feb 16, 2023 3:20 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: ACA Subsidies vs Roth Conversions
- Replies: 81
- Views: 10340
Re: ACA Subsidies vs Roth Conversions
So I am early 60s and had planned to do Roth conversions from age 60 to 63 or 64. However, the government greatly enhanced health care subsidies available through the ACA even for those who have a high net worth. My marginal Federal tax rate at this point is 22% so it's not like it was a slam dunk to begin with (to do conversions) but now that I am getting a $5,700 annual subsidy, it makes it even less attractive. My thinking is that as I analyze whether to do Roth conversions I need to factor in these subsidies. Don't you agree? I also need to factor in the IRMAA premiums as I get close to 65. Just wanted to check my thinking. The loss of tax credits for ACA as you incur more income doing Roth Conversions is just like an additional tax. Y...
- Fri Feb 10, 2023 9:47 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: 2022 "two fund" 50-50 second worst in history
- Replies: 117
- Views: 17349
Re: 2022 "two fund" 50-50 second worst in history
So take-away is probably that people should utilize these tools at various durations for their various needs. I might need a years worth of money to insulate me in case of job loss (or a short ladder). It’s actually worse than that. If you’d bought vbtlx six years ago, thinking “I matched the duration”, you’d be up the creek. I used the avg weighted maturity rather than duration of vbtlx for liability matching. But even that 8.2y turned out to be un reliable. Yeah, buying nominal bonds exposes you to the possibility of permanent real losses, if inflation is higher than expected. And all the more so if real rates were low to begin with. Exactly. We've got to be awake about risk and definitely question if the risk is worth the reward. Many o...
- Fri Feb 03, 2023 5:31 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Anyone fly Emirates lately?
- Replies: 19
- Views: 2248
Re: Anyone fly Emirates lately?
NJ EWR = Newark.
I agree with all above posts. Nothing wrong with Emirates. However, don't take it too far. Somebody once told me that economy in Emirates was like business at other airlines. That drove me to try them, but it turned out to be exaggeration. Nevertheless, they are good and professional, and you get what you pay for. Economy is economy.
One thing to consider is the type of plane. They often use the Airbus (can't think of the model) that is one of the largest. From the perspective of loading and offloading passengers, this is a major hassle. There will simply be huge numbers of people on your flight. Just plan accordingly. Extra time, extra boring factor, more issues with dealing with human factors, stuff like that.
I agree with all above posts. Nothing wrong with Emirates. However, don't take it too far. Somebody once told me that economy in Emirates was like business at other airlines. That drove me to try them, but it turned out to be exaggeration. Nevertheless, they are good and professional, and you get what you pay for. Economy is economy.
One thing to consider is the type of plane. They often use the Airbus (can't think of the model) that is one of the largest. From the perspective of loading and offloading passengers, this is a major hassle. There will simply be huge numbers of people on your flight. Just plan accordingly. Extra time, extra boring factor, more issues with dealing with human factors, stuff like that.
- Thu Feb 02, 2023 5:19 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Is this safe? Walmart pop-up asks if I'm a robot; click here
- Replies: 21
- Views: 6704
Re: Is this safe? Walmart pop-up asks if I'm a robot; click here
I wonder what he was buying. Oil? Some additional circuits?Doctor Rhythm wrote: ↑Tue Jan 31, 2023 7:56 pm This is exactly the kind of question a robot would post.
- Mon Jan 30, 2023 4:55 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Is bond duration-matching uncontested for retirement?
- Replies: 98
- Views: 9218
Re: Is bond duration-matching uncontested for retirement?
Duration matching only makes sense if the primary parameter you are trying to optimize is creating a known stream of income with zero real variance in outcome. Most people's utility function doesn't look like that. There's also the issue of future expenses being unknown. I think that that this is exactly the problem trying to be solved and suggest not to be distracted from that just because you might have to make a few guesses as to how much income you will need in retirement. Granted you don't get reward without taking risk, and practically nobody can succeed in their goals by just socking away risk free money all their lives. How is duration matching/liability matching contrary to MPT? It is a formalization and extension of diversificati...
- Sat Jan 28, 2023 4:10 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Is bond duration-matching uncontested for retirement?
- Replies: 98
- Views: 9218
Re: Is bond duration-matching uncontested for retirement?
I will readily admit to not understanding the rationale for duration matching at all - for individuals. Would welcome someone correcting my thinking! I get it for an institution that may have a fixed payment at a certain future point and wants to squeeze every drop of yield out of their receivables before that date. But for an individual with an unknown "expiration date", I'm matching the duration of my bond portfolio to my life expectancy to eliminate rate risk as I get closer to death. That right? Using me as an example - If I'm 55 my life expectancy is, say 85 so my duration should be a whopping 30 years? Versus the Agg's 6-7 years? So I massively extend my duration/volatility now and then each few years shorten it based on my...
- Fri Jan 27, 2023 5:33 am
- Forum: Non-US Investing
- Topic: Alternatives for TIPS?
- Replies: 17
- Views: 2788
Re: Alternatives for TIPS?
I agree that it only makes sense if whatever "CPI" that is being tracked is similar amongst all providers of IPS. There could be major dissimilarities. A real estate bubble in Europe might not even be noticed in the US and visa-versa.
- Fri Jan 27, 2023 4:54 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Is bond duration-matching uncontested for retirement?
- Replies: 98
- Views: 9218
Re: Is bond duration-matching uncontested for retirement?
The idea in a nutshell is that when you match the duration of the fixed income instrument to the need for the money, then you have immunized yourself to interest rate risk. Essentially you will hold to maturity, and the bond will make good on the deal you had when you bought it. Extend the same logic to a fund. Whatever the economy did, interest rates did, etc. over the life of the bond is unimportant to you because the day you need the money will be the day you get exactly what you had coming. It's a bit of an oversimplification that we can work things out so perfectly, but it helps to plan. Now, fast forward to the part about the need for the money. What you really need is an equivalent purchasing power. Who cares that you will get $10,00...
- Fri Jan 27, 2023 4:41 am
- Forum: Non-US Investing
- Topic: Alternatives for TIPS?
- Replies: 17
- Views: 2788
Re: Alternatives for TIPS?
There are these things called CILS = Corporate Inflation Linked Securities The majority of CILSs are issued by financial institutions. Because most of these issues are small, it is hard for retail investors to find CILS offerings, unless they work with a broker who deals with special types of bonds. Although it's important to note that these securities aren't as common as traditional fixed-income debt instruments. And while CILSs do provide investors with much higher nominal yields, they expose investors to the same credit risk, interest rate risk, and default risk as regular corporate bonds. I think I see evidence on this forum of people buying other country's IPS. China buys a huge amount of US Treasuries, for example. I don't know what i...
- Mon Jan 23, 2023 7:32 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Mysterious dripping sound in ceiling **SOLVED!**
- Replies: 64
- Views: 21575
Re: Mysterious dripping sound in ceiling
Bottom line: have you examined vent flaps on the roof?
I have a similar issue, but I have convinced myself that there really is no drip. It just sounds like a drip. My current theory is related to the aluminum flaps they put on roof vents. With just a little wind, it can cause these to vibrate. I had some trouble with a dryer vent flap, and I removed it. Since the vent pipe curves back down, it would be difficult for water to blow back up into there, and I don't think there is much risk in removing these types of flaps.
I have a similar issue, but I have convinced myself that there really is no drip. It just sounds like a drip. My current theory is related to the aluminum flaps they put on roof vents. With just a little wind, it can cause these to vibrate. I had some trouble with a dryer vent flap, and I removed it. Since the vent pipe curves back down, it would be difficult for water to blow back up into there, and I don't think there is much risk in removing these types of flaps.
- Sat Jan 21, 2023 10:23 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: 2022 "two fund" 50-50 second worst in history
- Replies: 117
- Views: 17349
Re: 2022 "two fund" 50-50 second worst in history
This particular downturn has taught me the importance of having cash in my portfolio for short term needs. Bonds might not be there when I need them. Bonds are going to "be there" in exactly the way that the bonds were purchased. When you bought them, you made a deal, and they will very, very, very likely hold true to the deal. That's it. Correct. And that deal is impacted by the bond fund’s duration. Thus my point remains. Absolutely. So take-away is probably that people should utilize these tools at various durations for their various needs. I might need a years worth of money to insulate me in case of job loss (or a short ladder). Other than that, if I'm thinking long term retirement money, I'm going to set my duration high, a...
- Sat Jan 21, 2023 6:36 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: 2022 "two fund" 50-50 second worst in history
- Replies: 117
- Views: 17349
Re: 2022 "two fund" 50-50 second worst in history
Bonds are going to "be there" in exactly the way that the bonds were purchased. When you bought them, you made a deal, and they will very, very, very likely hold true to the deal. That's it.Charles Joseph wrote: ↑Sat Jan 21, 2023 6:31 am This particular downturn has taught me the importance of having cash in my portfolio for short term needs. Bonds might not be there when I need them.
- Fri Jan 20, 2023 5:15 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: 2022 "two fund" 50-50 second worst in history
- Replies: 117
- Views: 17349
Re: 2022 "two fund" 50-50 second worst in history
It might be time to stop saying bonds are for safety. They are for safety of nominal future capital. They never promised safety of real capital; they never promised safety of present capital. As I have said many, many times. You and Hector may have internalized that. Judging from some threads here, many other people here had not, and indeed many other people still have not. If we had some sort of "like" feature, this sentiment should get most of the votes. No matter how you slice it, with bonds there are certain "knowns". As a tool, one can use those knowns to their advantage. This is their role in a portfolio, in a business, in an economy. On the other hand, unknowns abound. This is life. Some people come to the forum ...
- Tue Jan 17, 2023 4:58 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: newbie Portfolio Review
- Replies: 14
- Views: 2047
Re: newbie Portfolio Review
I'm a 50-50 guy, and I tend to use TIPS for the bond portion. Nowhere in the thread is TIPS mentioned. Cash and short term treasuries are not indexed to inflation. The larger the bond portion, the more inflation concerns us. If you possibly think that the recent drop in TIPS fund NAVs due to rising real rates is a downside, long term holders couldn't be happier. Let me be the guy to suggest TIPS in a fixed-income heavy portfolio. In my mind, TIPS would be best in the 401k/TIRA, and I am not suggesting that Mass munis in taxable is bad. You can probably push out your bond duration significantly to match your need for the money.
- Wed Jan 11, 2023 4:49 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Why Do People Like Linux?
- Replies: 254
- Views: 19136
Re: Why Do People Like Linux?
Linux. Wow, that is so fetch.
- Sun Jan 01, 2023 4:32 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Switching From Private Sector to Government
- Replies: 55
- Views: 4872
Re: Switching From Private Sector to Government
I have been a government employee for the last 15 years. Some thoughts come to mind. I am a hard charger and just wired that way. I have actually been written up for working too fast. My peers do not allow me into the "Circle" due to my productivity level. I could go on and on. The perceived ability to slow down and not think about tomorrow's workload has not been an asset that I have taken advantage of. You sound like you might be a high achiever that may not be able to roll back the throttle easily. My management's eventual response was to exile me to a position where I work by myself and am doing the work that previously had taken three employees. A win for all concerned, as I have thrived in this new location. When I was in t...
- Sat Dec 31, 2022 4:25 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Switching From Private Sector to Government
- Replies: 55
- Views: 4872
Re: Switching From Private Sector to Government
I would have taken a 100k pay cut for nothing. I almost took this plunge a few years back, but Trump did a hiring freeze that shut down the deal. It was a similar situation where you start out low, get promoted automatically, etc., as you have described. A few years down the road I am grateful that things didn't work out. I realized belatedly that I really didn't know enough about the job. I just had "visions of sugarplums" where everything would work out great. There's no way to know what things are going to be like on the other side of something like that until you live it, but they are kind of asking you to take a leap of faith and trust them that you're going to want to retain that job for as long as it takes to build up that...
- Thu Dec 15, 2022 5:40 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Are there any "philosophers" here to help develop our investment philosophy?
- Replies: 130
- Views: 11662
Re: Are there any "philosophers" here to help develop our investment philosophy?
Here is some food for thought. An attractive element of Index investing is it is somewhat like a "blind trust" if you have a strong Investor Policy Statement (IPS) and you are buying the whole market. It feels like an admission of defeat and surrender in the face of chaos. It feels like the lesser of many evils. The market seems nihilist and index investing is the prudent solution or reaction. Bogleheads admit defeat, accept the average and the "golden mean/middle way," embrace our powerlessness, and make the best of our predicament. When an investor embraces index investing it is a cathartic epiphany and revelation. A very pure and simple boglehead portfolio seems very zen. It's humble. That's one perspective. Another ...
- Wed Dec 14, 2022 4:56 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Are there any "philosophers" here to help develop our investment philosophy?
- Replies: 130
- Views: 11662
Re: Are there any "philosophers" here to help develop our investment philosophy?
I'd certainly be interested in something exploring the ethical side. The investing conversation must begin with motivation, i.e. why you should invest, what "good" does it do, what "harm" does it do. We focus on the good and don't allow ourselves to be distracted by the harm, but we rarely spell out what we actually believe. Many are hard-core capitalists and what that entails. I see it as using the talents you were lucky enough to receive in the most optimal manner. By putting the oxygen mask on yourself first, you allow saving your child, versus the opposite. That sort of optimism is about growing your own wealth for the greater good of society. Conversely, not to sound self righteous, but I often do not understand thi...