Search found 7493 matches

by midareff
Sun May 09, 2021 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your favorite portfolio management tool or calculator?
Replies: 36
Views: 3704

Re: What is your favorite portfolio management tool or calculator?

Very simple way to track many categories of data you might be interested in is the free Morningstar Portfolio. It is free and can be customized almost endlessly. From there you can export the data any time you want and have it update Excel customized and programmed to calculate or graph anything you...
by midareff
Sat May 08, 2021 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When will asset prices come down?
Replies: 84
Views: 5404

Re: When will asset prices come down?

Any guesses on when things will stabilize? Everything is up right now. Collector cars are up 20 percent from what I know. Real estate is red hot as you guys already know. Even luxury watches are up like PP or AP and of course Rolexes. How long do you guys foresee this to continue? Will it stay the ...
by midareff
Sat May 08, 2021 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When will asset prices come down?
Replies: 84
Views: 5404

Re: When will asset prices come down?

newyorker wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 8:25 am Im purchasing s&p via DCA but wondering if I should splurge on other luxury goods like cars or watches.
might be a better time to splurge on an asset that doesn't go down when stocks do, and then when the house of cards fall that is the time to shop.
by midareff
Sat May 08, 2021 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When will asset prices come down?
Replies: 84
Views: 5404

Re: When will asset prices come down?

RickBoglehead wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 6:30 pm 7/23/21
You are off by 2 .... although crystal ball is not sure if that is days, months or years..... or combination thereof.
by midareff
Thu May 06, 2021 4:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retirees: Monthly vs Quarterly vs Annual Distributions
Replies: 76
Views: 4737

Re: Retirees: Monthly vs Quarterly vs Annual Distributions

I'm close to retirement and was initially planning just to do one distribution each year, in December, and perhaps modify that distribution downward if the year was particularly bad. But then I thought, well, maybe a monthly actually makes more sense, in the same way that dollar cost averaging in t...
by midareff
Wed May 05, 2021 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the potential upside in munis worth the downside?
Replies: 67
Views: 6895

Re: Is the potential upside in munis worth the downside?

Ahhh.. the great unknown and Efficient Market thrown in as well. It's all baked in as long as group think and reality collide. If not, then it isn't so baked in. I'm not clear on what reality collision you're referring to being at play here. It's a simple over / under bet. CPI-U inflation either co...
by midareff
Wed May 05, 2021 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the potential upside in munis worth the downside?
Replies: 67
Views: 6895

Re: Is the potential upside in munis worth the downside?

I understand how they are voting with their wallets... just like tech buyers voted in 1997/98, and just like market buyers voted in 2007/8. Because someone, or a group of someones, or a whole herd of them vote with their wallet it doesn't mean the desired or expected ending happens. Projections and...
by midareff
Wed May 05, 2021 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why isnt everyone buying TIPS?
Replies: 107
Views: 9060

Re: Why isnt everyone buying TIPS?

Robot Monster wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 12:39 pm
DMoogle wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 12:30 pm ...bonds are typically priced to beat inflation already...
If bonds are priced to beat inflation, then why is the 10yr Treasury yielding 1.59% if the 10 year breakeven is 2.42%? Isn't that a -0.83% real yield, equivalent to the 10yr TIPS yield?
Before tax ramifications that is.....
by midareff
Wed May 05, 2021 3:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Self management of retirement funds
Replies: 30
Views: 2788

Re: Self management of retirement funds

Hello I retired this year. I am planning on rolling over 401k to either Vanguard or Fidelity. The 401k has both pretax, post tax and Roth components. I hope to self manage using Index funds or target retirement funds. The rollover is planned to get my Roth and post tax money invested in ROTH IRA an...
by midareff
Wed May 05, 2021 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the potential upside in munis worth the downside?
Replies: 67
Views: 6895

Re: Is the potential upside in munis worth the downside?

Forecasting any future 5 year period is treacherous. The road to accuracy is littered with talking heads who have missed their forecasts time and time again. How they derive their forecast, academically, is immaterial to me. We can revisit this in 5 years and see how close they got. Oh, I agree on ...
by midareff
Wed May 05, 2021 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the potential upside in munis worth the downside?
Replies: 67
Views: 6895

Re: Is the potential upside in munis worth the downside?

I guess we will just have to agree to disagree on that one. IT Treasuries with an SEC of .53% don't have a 2.6% CPI-U factored. Yes, they do. They just have negative real yield. The breakeven inflation rate of 2.6% is derived from the spread between nominals and TIPS. The breakeven inflation is the...
by midareff
Wed May 05, 2021 7:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the potential upside in munis worth the downside?
Replies: 67
Views: 6895

Re: Is the potential upside in munis worth the downside?

Since the rolling 12 month inflation rate is presently 1.18% what does that 2.6% say about interest rates and their impact on bond NAVs over the next 5? It's already part 5 YR bond prices, implicitly. That's why it's the expected rate....it's already priced in. I guess we will just have to agree to...
by midareff
Tue May 04, 2021 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the potential upside in munis worth the downside?
Replies: 67
Views: 6895

Re: Is the potential upside in munis worth the downside?

It seems like there is more and more certainty that inflation is going to rise, perhaps sooner than expected. Many articles appearing from reliable sources that are predicting that the fed will probably raise rates sooner than was previously anticipated. With the astronomical government spending go...
by midareff
Tue May 04, 2021 6:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the potential upside in munis worth the downside?
Replies: 67
Views: 6895

Re: Is the potential upside in munis worth the downside?

Downside risk is immaterial unless you sell. I think this is a great point. If your muni-bonds are for buy and hold, then likely the risk is low. However, I need some bonds available for rebalancing. Selling muni-bonds at a 10% at the start of the pandemic is not a great option, so I aim for no mor...
by midareff
Mon May 03, 2021 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the potential upside in munis worth the downside?
Replies: 67
Views: 6895

Re: Is the potential upside in munis worth the downside?

Bonds fluctuate just like stocks and we are in a part of the cycle that has bond NAVs quite extended. A return to the mean for stocks and bonds would be very ugly for either, even a partial return. We have little choice in the matter; if we knew when the the correction was, then it would have been ...
by midareff
Mon May 03, 2021 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the potential upside in munis worth the downside?
Replies: 67
Views: 6895

Re: Is the potential upside in munis worth the downside?

Downside risk is immaterial unless you sell. I think this is a great point. If your muni-bonds are for buy and hold, then likely the risk is low. However, I need some bonds available for rebalancing. Selling muni-bonds at a 10% at the start of the pandemic is not a great option, so I aim for no mor...
by midareff
Mon May 03, 2021 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the potential upside in munis worth the downside?
Replies: 67
Views: 6895

Re: Is the potential upside in munis worth the downside?

Bonds fluctuate just like stocks and we are in a part of the cycle that has bond NAVs quite extended. A return to the mean for stocks and bonds would be very ugly for either, even a partial return. We have little choice in the matter; if we knew when the the correction was, then it would have been ...
by midareff
Mon May 03, 2021 6:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the potential upside in munis worth the downside?
Replies: 67
Views: 6895

Re: Is the potential upside in munis worth the downside?

Downside risk is immaterial unless you sell. I think this is a great point. If your muni-bonds are for buy and hold, then likely the risk is low. However, I need some bonds available for rebalancing. Selling muni-bonds at a 10% at the start of the pandemic is not a great option, so I aim for no mor...
by midareff
Sat May 01, 2021 11:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How long should I keep this car loan?
Replies: 13
Views: 955

Re: How long should I keep this car loan?

A good rule of thumb is the dividend rates being paid by bond funds. In this case the Total Bond Market has an SEC Yield of 1.32%. .. doesn't compare well to paying 3%. If you don't need to keep the cash for an emergency and you can't make money on their money... pay them off.
by midareff
Thu Apr 29, 2021 4:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are you listening to now
Replies: 1689
Views: 102658

Re: What are you listening to now

Miss Saigon, Original London Cast recording, 2 CDs.
by midareff
Thu Apr 29, 2021 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the potential upside in munis worth the downside?
Replies: 67
Views: 6895

Re: Is the potential upside in munis worth the downside?

Many of us, especially in high tax brackets and high tax states, use munis in our taxable accounts as a relatively safe and stable investment option. The downsides of munis have been discussed in great detail and most would agree that munis (specifically national muni bond funds) are generally very...
by midareff
Mon Apr 26, 2021 5:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Unconventional Retirement Asset Allocation - Am I missing something?
Replies: 14
Views: 2024

Re: Unconventional Retirement Asset Allocation - Am I missing something?

I retired 2 years ago at age 51 following a corporate layoff. My wife and I have two daughters in college. Since then we have reduced our expenses significantly to the point where we are living very comfortably with invested assets at 67 times current annual expenses. Our living expenses are more t...
by midareff
Mon Apr 26, 2021 7:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Downside protection from a protracted bear market in retirement - your plan
Replies: 79
Views: 6199

Re: Downside protection from a protracted bear market in retirement - your plan

namajones wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 8:32 am
midareff wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 7:25 am Next get a really good 18 or 21 year old, bottle of Scotch that is, and settle in for the fun.
:sharebeer

Nice plan.
LOL... well, it is an adult forum. :sharebeer

keep your friends close, your enemies even closer and your bonds short.
by midareff
Sun Apr 25, 2021 7:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Downside protection from a protracted bear market in retirement - your plan
Replies: 79
Views: 6199

Re: Downside protection from a protracted bear market in retirement - your plan

The first protection is have an income floor that allows all your expenses to be paid from a standard months income. When you can pay all your bills from your pension and SS that would be one example. Next, keep your bond duration short. With all this crazy cash around inflation will continue to com...
by midareff
Fri Apr 23, 2021 2:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Mediterranean Cruise Opinions
Replies: 50
Views: 3437

Re: Mediterranean Cruise Opinions

No i will never understand paying for exclusivity or snobbery. I certainly love high quality service. I pay what I want -upwards of $$$$ for expensive hotels and restaurants because of my appreciation for service! Good day. Bingo! You've nailed it (but sort of "for the other side"). You w...
by midareff
Fri Apr 23, 2021 11:47 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Mediterranean Cruise Opinions
Replies: 50
Views: 3437

Re: Mediterranean Cruise Opinions

We are looking at going on a Mediterranean Cruise with friends in September 2022. They have picked out a 12 night Viking Cruise on the Viking Sea in a Category DV4-Deluxe Veranda at a cost of $8600 per person including economy air fare from the Midwest U.S. This is double of what I have seen for si...
by midareff
Fri Apr 23, 2021 9:12 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Mediterranean Cruise Opinions
Replies: 50
Views: 3437

Re: Mediterranean Cruise Opinions

We are looking at going on a Mediterranean Cruise with friends in September 2022. They have picked out a 12 night Viking Cruise on the Viking Sea in a Category DV4-Deluxe Veranda at a cost of $8600 per person including economy air fare from the Midwest U.S. This is double of what I have seen for si...
by midareff
Fri Apr 23, 2021 8:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where do you store your cash part of retirement?
Replies: 24
Views: 4104

Re: Where do you store your cash part of retirement?

Some emergency cash in a home safe and cash up to Insurance Guarantee at an internet bank.
by midareff
Fri Apr 23, 2021 8:12 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Mediterranean Cruise Opinions
Replies: 50
Views: 3437

Re: Mediterranean Cruise Opinions

We are looking at going on a Mediterranean Cruise with friends in September 2022. They have picked out a 12 night Viking Cruise on the Viking Sea in a Category DV4-Deluxe Veranda at a cost of $8600 per person including economy air fare from the Midwest U.S. This is double of what I have seen for si...
by midareff
Thu Apr 22, 2021 8:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What Were Your Regrets after Retiring? (serious question)
Replies: 321
Views: 39885

Re: What Were Your Regrets after Retiring? (serious question)

I must admit I am very envious of people who are easily able to fill their days in retirement. I have zero understanding of what they are doing to fill their days. Lord... it's been months since I was able to set aside the time to do the "doin' nothin'", I had hoped I would have time to d...
by midareff
Thu Apr 22, 2021 7:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What Were Your Regrets after Retiring? (serious question)
Replies: 321
Views: 39885

Re: What Were Your Regrets after Retiring? (serious question)

I'm 73 and just starting year 10 retired. Had I known what Mr. Market would do these last ten to a dozen years I would have retired sooner, but that's simply not predictable. I always worked long hours in a stressful middle management position. I do believe there is a price you pay for this later in...
by midareff
Thu Apr 22, 2021 7:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need Cash for Divorce Payout
Replies: 109
Views: 8471

Re: Need Cash for Divorce Payout

I need to come up with $50,000 to pay a lump sum alimony payment. Wife has agreed to take a lesser amount in alimony if it's a lump sum. I have approximately $250,000 in a ROTH IRA and $180,000 in a Traditional IRA. I know I can take out principal from a ROTH penalty free, as I've already paid tax ...
by midareff
Thu Apr 22, 2021 7:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need Cash for Divorce Payout
Replies: 109
Views: 8471

Re: Need Cash for Divorce Payout

I need to come up with $50,000 to pay a lump sum alimony payment. Wife has agreed to take a lesser amount in alimony if it's a lump sum. I have approximately $250,000 in a ROTH IRA and $180,000 in a Traditional IRA. I know I can take out principal from a ROTH penalty free, as I've already paid tax ...
by midareff
Thu Apr 22, 2021 7:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need Cash for Divorce Payout
Replies: 109
Views: 8471

Re: Need Cash for Divorce Payout

I need to come up with $50,000 to pay a lump sum alimony payment. Wife has agreed to take a lesser amount in alimony if it's a lump sum. I have approximately $250,000 in a ROTH IRA and $180,000 in a Traditional IRA. I know I can take out principal from a ROTH penalty free, as I've already paid tax ...
by midareff
Thu Apr 22, 2021 6:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need Cash for Divorce Payout
Replies: 109
Views: 8471

Re: Need Cash for Divorce Payout

I need to come up with $50,000 to pay a lump sum alimony payment. Wife has agreed to take a lesser amount in alimony if it's a lump sum. I have approximately $250,000 in a ROTH IRA and $180,000 in a Traditional IRA. I know I can take out principal from a ROTH penalty free, as I've already paid tax ...
by midareff
Thu Apr 22, 2021 6:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: withdrawal strategy after market decline
Replies: 44
Views: 3318

Re: withdrawal strategy after market decline

Easy.. let's suppose you retire with $1.2M in equities and $.8M in FI (bonds, etc.).... 60/40 on a $2M portfolio. Your planned withdrawal rate is 4% because you read about it on Bogleheads and heard it repeated here endlessly. That's $80K annually as a start inflationary indexed. Let's say you need...
by midareff
Wed Apr 21, 2021 4:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bull Market in Bond
Replies: 52
Views: 5883

Re: Bull Market in Bond

I thought the current market situation, especially as it pertains to bonds might present a unique opportunity. Do you have debt? Does your debt cost you more than the income from equities? As a 73 y/o retiree I decided I wanted to cover a bit over 7 years of RMD in an IRA with ST bonds. Kept a more ...
by midareff
Wed Apr 21, 2021 4:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need Cash for Divorce Payout
Replies: 109
Views: 8471

Re: Need Cash for Divorce Payout

I need to come up with $50,000 to pay a lump sum alimony payment. Wife has agreed to take a lesser amount in alimony if it's a lump sum. I have approximately $250,000 in a ROTH IRA and $180,000 in a Traditional IRA. I know I can take out principal from a ROTH penalty free, as I've already paid tax ...
by midareff
Wed Apr 21, 2021 3:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: withdrawal strategy after market decline
Replies: 44
Views: 3318

Re: withdrawal strategy after market decline

if you equities lost 60% of their value within the first 3 or 4 months of your retirement could you adjust your WR to 3% of that new investment balance and survive while maintaining an adequate lifestyle? If you are arguing a reduction would make sense what are some details of the frame work you ar...
by midareff
Wed Apr 21, 2021 6:49 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Surge Protector Recommendation
Replies: 16
Views: 1063

Re: Surge Protector Recommendation

Room604 wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 6:42 am I also use a Tripplite surge protector/backup battery for my work computer etc. They make a lot of good products. All available on Amazon.
and many times of fleabay at fell off the truck prices.
by midareff
Wed Apr 21, 2021 6:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Surge Protector Recommendation
Replies: 16
Views: 1063

Re: Surge Protector Recommendation

Can anyone here recommend a good surge protector? Im out of the US and bought one off a walmart here and it works fine... 600 joules but it has never had an issue so far. When I go to the US, I need to buy one or two of these as we still use power strips on it and obviously that isn't good for powe...
by midareff
Mon Apr 19, 2021 4:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How foolish is this? [Buying waterfront apartment in Florida]
Replies: 102
Views: 10256

Re: How foolish is this? [Buying waterfront apartment in Florida]

Good luck in the search. The next time you find a place you like do what's necessary to buy it. / I thought I did. My realtor thought I had a better than 90% chance. But in this market, the sky is the limit. Give it another 12-18 months and they will be trying to give the stuff away... December 201...
by midareff
Sun Apr 18, 2021 9:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: withdrawal strategy after market decline
Replies: 44
Views: 3318

Re: withdrawal strategy after market decline

Lots of threads about SWR discuss the SWR as a rough planning tool as opposed to a literal plan and lots of folks have stated of course after a big market selloff/bear market it would be natural to reduce withdrawals. But I don't recall lots of discussions on the details of reducing withdrawals aft...
by midareff
Sat Apr 17, 2021 6:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How foolish is this? [Buying waterfront apartment in Florida]
Replies: 102
Views: 10256

Re: How foolish is this? [Buying waterfront apartment in Florida]

I'm 73 now, 10 years retired and have lived in South Florida long term. If you think you are going to live another 50 years that could be an issue, the rising water level and such. For me at 73 it is a non-issue. I'll be out exercise walking in about a half hour at 74 degree weather. No nights belo...
by midareff
Sat Apr 17, 2021 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What’s the problem with dividends?
Replies: 300
Views: 17371

Re: What’s the problem with dividends?

Da5id wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 7:56 am
midareff wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 7:46 am If you have enough of them it can be tough to spend them all.
The IRS is often happy to help you reduce the magnitude of that problem.
I have noticed in my personal experience. However, being retired the problem is not that much.
by midareff
Sat Apr 17, 2021 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What’s the problem with dividends?
Replies: 300
Views: 17371

Re: What’s the problem with dividends?

If you have enough of them it can be tough to spend them all.
by midareff
Sat Apr 17, 2021 7:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How foolish is this? [Buying waterfront apartment in Florida]
Replies: 102
Views: 10256

Re: How foolish is this? [Buying waterfront apartment in Florida]

I'm 73 now, 10 years retired and have lived in South Florida long term. If you think you are going to live another 50 years that could be an issue, the rising water level and such. For me at 73 it is a non-issue. I'll be out exercise walking in about a half hour at 74 degree weather. No nights below...
by midareff
Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Shorten duration of Bond allocation
Replies: 20
Views: 905

Re: Shorten duration of Bond allocation

T-Mobile Checking might be less of a deal than you think it is. From an online opinion; "f you are thinking of using a T-Mobile bank account just be aware that they make it VERY hard to get your money out once it is deposited. There is a $3,000 limit to ACH transfers, going into or out of thei...
by midareff
Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:36 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Shorten duration of Bond allocation
Replies: 20
Views: 905

Re: Shorten duration of Bond allocation

T-Mobile Checking might be less of a deal than you think it is. From an online opinion; "f you are thinking of using a T-Mobile bank account just be aware that they make it VERY hard to get your money out once it is deposited. There is a $3,000 limit to ACH transfers, going into or out of thei...
by midareff
Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Shorten duration of Bond allocation
Replies: 20
Views: 905

Re: Shorten duration of Bond allocation

Basically, you are asking us to predict whether the loss you will get if/when rates rise will off-set the higher interest rate the intermediate bonds give versus short term bonds. Let's compare VBIRX to VBILX to my checking account. Intermediate: VBILX 6.6 Duration, 1.68% SEC Yield. Short: VBIRX 2....