Search found 102 matches

by Jaymover
Thu Jul 22, 2021 5:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calculating Asset Allocation
Replies: 13
Views: 790

Re: Calculating Asset Allocation

Any suggestions on what to use or a method to figure out asset allocation, if one owns quite a few funds?? A very brief question. If you already have a number of funds you can use a spreadsheet to work out the overall percentage of growth assets (stocks, Reit etc) against defensive assets (bonds, c...
by Jaymover
Sun Jul 18, 2021 11:29 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Tax loss harvesting during rebalancing [Australia]
Replies: 6
Views: 932

Re: Tax loss harvesting during rebalancing

I have an ordinary stock bond portfolio and looking at rebalancing as some of my stock ETFs are way over my target allocations. On the other hand my bonds have gone down a bit since I bought them. I see that if I sold all my bonds and then some of my stock etfs I would pretty much have no capital g...
by Jaymover
Sun Jul 18, 2021 11:28 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Tax loss harvesting during rebalancing [Australia]
Replies: 6
Views: 932

Re: Tax loss harvesting during rebalancing

I have an ordinary stock bond portfolio and looking at rebalancing as some of my stock ETFs are way over my target allocations. On the other hand my bonds have gone down a bit since I bought them. I see that if I sold all my bonds and then some of my stock etfs I would pretty much have no capital g...
by Jaymover
Fri Jul 16, 2021 3:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AA as a function of goal balance not time/age
Replies: 30
Views: 2363

Re: AA as a function of goal balance not time/age

I now use a target retirement amount goal. To work out the target amount requires some modelling and of course models are great but if something goes awry then you have to revisit your goal and act accordingly. When you do your model you have to be realistic about your savings rate, return rate,inco...
by Jaymover
Fri Jul 16, 2021 3:00 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Tax loss harvesting during rebalancing [Australia]
Replies: 6
Views: 932

Tax loss harvesting during rebalancing [Australia]

I have an ordinary stock bond portfolio and looking at rebalancing as some of my stock ETFs are way over my target allocations. On the other hand my bonds have gone down a bit since I bought them. I see that if I sold all my bonds and then some of my stock etfs I would pretty much have no capital ga...
by Jaymover
Tue Jul 13, 2021 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When is 0% bonds appropriate?
Replies: 320
Views: 22892

Re: When is 0% bonds appropriate?

So what % of bonds would you advocate for someone for example who has the traditional 6mo emergency fund and in the accumulation phase? 10-30% seems reasonable to me. 10% for early career and 30% closer to retirement. Then the premise of the emergency fund becomes flawed. So what is the retirement ...
by Jaymover
Tue Jul 13, 2021 9:31 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Australian retirement funds: general reinforcement for Bogleheads and specific thoughts for Australians [updated]
Replies: 17
Views: 2835

Re: Australian retirement funds: general reinforcement for Bogleheads and specific thoughts for Australians [updated]

In some ways it is a shame that the super industry is so fragmented. It is actually good to own unlisted infrastructure and real estate within super however all super funds seem to be going about their purchases separately making the cost of owning those assets more expensive. The money is needed lo...
by Jaymover
Tue Jul 13, 2021 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question about ETFs, FAANGs and Berkshire Hathaway
Replies: 10
Views: 1319

Re: Question about ETFs, FAANGs and Berkshire Hathaway

Most indexes are free-float market cap. Free-float is the critical bit here. To prevent double counting, the shares held by BRK are subtracted from the market cap calculation. This was the answer I was looking for. I was not sure if this was the case. As said, if indexes didn't do it they would be ...
by Jaymover
Tue Jul 13, 2021 12:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question about ETFs, FAANGs and Berkshire Hathaway
Replies: 10
Views: 1319

Question about ETFs, FAANGs and Berkshire Hathaway

I am having trouble finding any discussion about this but my question is as follows: I own international indexed ETFs. Often times Berkshire Hathaway is a top 10 holding within that ETF together with the FAANGs. There are concerns that the worlds biggest international ETFs are so heavily weighted to...
by Jaymover
Sun Jul 11, 2021 6:12 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Australian retirement funds: general reinforcement for Bogleheads and specific thoughts for Australians [updated]
Replies: 17
Views: 2835

Re: Australian retirement funds: general reinforcement for Bogleheads and specific thoughts for Australians [updated]

The other problem comparing funds is that the "balanced fund" can be anywhere from 85/15 growth to defensive down to 50/50. No wonder there is such a range of performances with the stock heavy balanced funds having outperformed most over the last 5 years. The standard balance funds include...
by Jaymover
Sun Jul 11, 2021 4:25 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Australian retirement funds: general reinforcement for Bogleheads and specific thoughts for Australians [updated]
Replies: 17
Views: 2835

Re: Australian retirement funds: general reinforcement for Bogleheads and specific thoughts for Australians [updated]

I have super and an ordinary (taxed portfolio). It is hard to work out comparative tax drag when comparing super with the ordinary portfolio, however many super funds suffer "fee drag". With an ordinary portfolio, it helps if you defer capital gains tax events for years when you dont earn ...
by Jaymover
Thu Jun 24, 2021 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio - is it really that good?
Replies: 27
Views: 4094

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio - is it really that good?

If you believe that backtesting reliably foretells the future and you are risk averse by nature, GBP may be a very good choice for you. It offers great downside protection. Personally, I do not believe that backtesting reliably foretells the future. Nor am I particularly risk averse. I do not depar...
by Jaymover
Wed Jun 23, 2021 6:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio - is it really that good?
Replies: 27
Views: 4094

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio - is it really that good?

I have come to the understanding that having proportional amounts of non-correlated assets compounds the power of rebalancing, as long as you regularly rebalance. For instance, only having 5 percent of your portfolio allocated to one asset class means that if that allocation drops 50 percent when ot...
by Jaymover
Wed Jun 23, 2021 6:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio - is it really that good?
Replies: 27
Views: 4094

Golden Butterfly Portfolio - is it really that good?

I've been playing around with the portfolio visualiser and am quite amazed at the performance of the golden butterfly portfolio for people in my situation ie accumulated a fair bit and have about 10 to 15 years left until retirement. When comparing to the standard two fund 60/40, it puts my goal wit...
by Jaymover
Tue Jun 22, 2021 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When is 0% bonds appropriate?
Replies: 320
Views: 22892

Re: When is 0% bonds appropriate?

When is 0% bonds appropriate? My personal answer to this question is "now". Rates are extremely low, and real rates are negative. At this point in time, I'd rather "lose-to-inflation" in a high yield savings account, than take a chance at "losing a lot more if there is an i...
by Jaymover
Tue Jun 22, 2021 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone here have a golden butterfly portfolio?
Replies: 62
Views: 14266

Re: Anyone here have a golden butterfly portfolio?

Looking at the portfolio visualiser it is amazing how well the GB has performed over a long time horizon, even better that 100 percent stocks. It seems like the reward with far less risk. Gold seems a bit kooky to me. You know, stocks are companies etc but gold is just mined metal and they keep pull...
by Jaymover
Tue Jun 22, 2021 12:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When is 0% bonds appropriate?
Replies: 320
Views: 22892

Re: When is 0% bonds appropriate?

These days we are not advised to target wealth maximisation, ie don't be greedy when you already have enough and don't take on more risk than you need. If you had $100 million, you wouldn't care if half of it was in bonds for the sake of capital preservation. But if you're far from your target, agg...
by Jaymover
Mon Jun 21, 2021 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When is 0% bonds appropriate?
Replies: 320
Views: 22892

Re: When is 0% bonds appropriate?

I too have asked this question. Sequencing risk increases for most less than 15 years to retirement when noting that you might be forced to retire early and start drawing on your nest egg. Some financial modelling (using modest assumptions) is essential to develop a target amount you want to retire ...
by Jaymover
Mon Jun 21, 2021 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the definition of a TINA investor
Replies: 11
Views: 1775

Re: What is the definition of a TINA investor

I have heard of the substitution effect pushing up stock prices right now. I think the substitution effect is driven by the TINAs of the world, including me, who have evaluated the alternatives. There is not really an online consensus on, say, increasing your stock allocation by 5 percent to take in...
by Jaymover
Mon Jun 21, 2021 7:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Time to reach 1M and 2M milestones
Replies: 333
Views: 103688

Re: Time to reach 1M and 2M milestones

Hi Going from 1M to 2M is my exact goal. The only trouble is that you get to the one million mark when you are older and so have less years left to accumulate. The portfolio visualiser is a great way to understand how to get there. If you have an aggressive portfolio then it might take anywhere bet...
by Jaymover
Mon Jun 21, 2021 7:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Time to reach 1M and 2M milestones
Replies: 333
Views: 103688

Re: Time to reach 1M and 2M milestones

Hi Going from 1M to 2M is my exact goal. The only trouble is that you get to the one million mark when you are older and so have less years left to accumulate. The portfolio visualiser is a great way to understand how to get there. If you have an aggressive portfolio then it might take anywhere betw...
by Jaymover
Sun Jun 20, 2021 11:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the definition of a TINA investor
Replies: 11
Views: 1775

What is the definition of a TINA investor

I saw some posts recently referring to the TINA investor as if the TINA (there is no alternative) investor is of the uninformed, emotional variety. As I am on the steep learning curve of my investment journey I would like to learn more about this and how to avoid being a TINA. My guess is that the T...
by Jaymover
Wed Jun 16, 2021 6:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Hit my "number" (I think)...now what?
Replies: 103
Views: 10116

Re: Hit my "number" (I think)...now what?

Ignore the hyper-conservative 50 - 100x comments. Theirs may be a way but it isn't the way. You will be just fine. It sounds like you've already chosen a relatively conservative AA. The next thing you should do is plan for Roth conversions where possible and when to put in your notice. Congratulati...
by Jaymover
Sun Jun 13, 2021 10:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A question about glide paths.
Replies: 43
Views: 4813

Re: A question about glide paths.

Thanks. It sounds like I am not too close to doing this after all, if the TIPS yield is the appropriate discount rate, as that would mean I should be overshooting my target to account for the negative real yields. From what you say, it seems to make sense that this might not be the right method for...
by Jaymover
Fri Jun 11, 2021 2:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A question about glide paths.
Replies: 43
Views: 4813

Re: A question about glide paths.

Thanks for the insight here. I have modelled my accumulation over the next 13 years and have also calculated present Value of my total wealth to the point where it is (hopefully) enough. If I were to use future values to calculate my stock allocation then I dont think the model works. Eg Current va...
by Jaymover
Thu Jun 10, 2021 3:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Acoustic Guitar Help
Replies: 65
Views: 5503

Re: Acoustic Guitar Help

I saved a cheap but mint Yamaha dreadnought from the rubbish tip. Spent some time putting in a bone saddle, some fret sanding, restringing, careful setup. It sounds AMAZING. Alot to be said for getting a quality cheap guitar and paying someone (or DIY) setting it up. Don't have to worry about it get...
by Jaymover
Wed Jun 09, 2021 7:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A question about glide paths.
Replies: 43
Views: 4813

Re: A question about glide paths.

I find the simpler method that you’ve described in this current thread to be way more appealing and easy to understand. Any thoughts on the potential downfalls of this method vs the more “sophisticated” approach? The simple method just produces a slightly more aggressive allocation during the glide...
by Jaymover
Wed Jun 09, 2021 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A question about glide paths.
Replies: 43
Views: 4813

Re: A question about glide paths.

“This book might be helpful to you” is a major league big time understatement! It’s mandatory reading to address the exact question you are asking! The part you will be most interested in is near the end of the book.
WIll definitely get a copy!
by Jaymover
Wed Jun 09, 2021 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A question about glide paths.
Replies: 43
Views: 4813

Re: A question about glide paths.

2) Your retirement asset allocation. Another important decision is how do you choose the target allocation on retirement? Me choosing 60/40 was arbitrary. However when I work it out, 40 percent of my retirement target is about 10 years of expenses in bonds which seems about right. If I found out du...
by Jaymover
Wed Jun 09, 2021 7:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A question about glide paths.
Replies: 43
Views: 4813

Re: A question about glide paths.

I'm glossing over a few nuances, but honestly this simple method works quite well as long as you are at least moderately confident about your estimate for the two numbers. I like the look this method. In my investing journey I have heard repeatedly that it is better to set and work toward financial...
by Jaymover
Wed Jun 09, 2021 4:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A question about glide paths.
Replies: 43
Views: 4813

A question about glide paths.

Hi I am 52 year old DIY investor who takes an interest, and has chosen a moderately aggressive glide path to follow with my investments as I get older and move toward retirement (maybe 2035). The question I have is; after a major correction and a subsequent gradual recovery, say a 50 percent fall an...
by Jaymover
Sun Jun 06, 2021 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why You Should Wait Out the Wild Housing Market" - Atlantic
Replies: 115
Views: 15941

Re: "Why You Should Wait Out the Wild Housing Market" - Atlantic

So market timing stocks is bad, but market timing real estate is good? I think the trouble with housing is that when bidding on houses at auctions in a hot market you are EXTREMELY vulnerable to your emotions and dodgey sales practices, only do it once or twice in your life, and take on one hell of...
by Jaymover
Sun Jun 06, 2021 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A few thoughts on inflation
Replies: 150
Views: 12433

Re: A few thoughts on inflation

Most people here are not struggling to pay their mortgages. But isnt that just because they dropped interest rates absurdly low despite the fact that most middle class folks kept their jobs and cut their expenses? I think the reserve banks run the cash rate quite alot above the inflation rate when ...
by Jaymover
Sun Jun 06, 2021 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A few thoughts on inflation
Replies: 150
Views: 12433

Re: A few thoughts on inflation

I’m talking about Bogleheads who have millions in liquid assets at risk of being inflated away yet at the same time prepay their 2.5% mortgages as fast as they can because it “feels good”. Hope it works out for them. Is it a good time now to leverage against ETFs? I think margin loans run at around...
by Jaymover
Sun Jun 06, 2021 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A few thoughts on inflation
Replies: 150
Views: 12433

Re: A few thoughts on inflation

The single most impactful thing an ordinary person can do to hedge against inflation is to keep as big a mortgage for as long as possible. The irony that those most worried about inflation around here are also the ones most eager to pay off their mortgages. Trouble is that they are people currently...
by Jaymover
Sun Jun 06, 2021 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A few thoughts on inflation
Replies: 150
Views: 12433

Re: A few thoughts on inflation

I think it is human nature to dwell on the worst possible outcome, eg a heightened level of inflation during the years after retirement, or a spike in interest rates when you are already maxed out on your mortgage. I think predicting one way or the other is simply another way of timing the market an...
by Jaymover
Fri Jun 04, 2021 2:23 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: [Australia] Increasing bond exposure - change superannuation fund or change other investments
Replies: 11
Views: 1344

Re: [Australia] Increasing bond exposure - change superannuation fund or change other investments

I dont think anyone has mentioned it but when you put super into an annuity income product with your super fund on retirement you don't pay the 10 percent tax on returns, they are totally tax free. The catch is that you have to withdraw 5% per annum (but currently made 2.5% to reward retirees a litt...
by Jaymover
Thu Jun 03, 2021 3:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm calling a bottom in real estate
Replies: 139
Views: 16778

Re: I'm calling a bottom in real estate

30 year traditional loans are the most “popular “ and probably what most new h9me buyers traditionally index against rent. I’ve increasingly “seen and heard” from bankers that they are increasingly writing 40 year loans. 40 year monthly mortgage access permits higher home prices for buyers. Why not...
by Jaymover
Wed Jun 02, 2021 11:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm calling a bottom in real estate
Replies: 139
Views: 16778

Re: I'm calling a bottom in real estate

It seems pretty obvious to me that the latest spike in buying interest is due to a drop in interest rates which makes the borrowing power of prospective borrowers even higher. Although property spruikers are talking about the beginning of a great boom the reality of declining average incomes and job...
by Jaymover
Wed Jun 02, 2021 10:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are U.S. Stock Valuations so High Today?
Replies: 48
Views: 5360

Re: Why are U.S. Stock Valuations so High Today?

As an Australian I have about 60 percent international stocks and 30 percent local stocks. As they are cap weighted ETFs half my international stocks are US stocks. I think in every country in the world there has been the mantra about reducing home bias in stock investments and accordingly the world...
by Jaymover
Tue Jun 01, 2021 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why the golden years for bonds are over but can still have a place in your portfolio
Replies: 203
Views: 16312

Re: Why the golden years for bonds are over but can still have a place in your portfolio

J.Powell: "We understand our job we will do our job and we are focused as you seen for many years We have been focused on inflation 'deviating' below 2%, and we used our tools aggressively to put it back up at 2% if we do see inflation moving materially above 2% persistent way the risks of inf...
by Jaymover
Fri May 28, 2021 1:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Updated: Help, Financially Naive here.
Replies: 86
Views: 13208

Re: Help, Financially Naive here.

Good on you realising you need to get involved. As everyone said, do a bit of reading etc to get acquainted with the investing world Say that you now want to get a feel for your finances and want to work as a team on it (you are contributing 50% at least). Then try and arrange for an hour or two wit...
by Jaymover
Thu May 27, 2021 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I've put a powerful new line into my wealth tracker spreadsheet!
Replies: 70
Views: 14069

Re: I've put a powerful new line into my wealth tracker spreadsheet!

A 50% market crash doesn't matter to me at all. It is the time period that the drawdown stays underwater that concerns me. Nobody talks about this, unless you happen to be an older Japanese citizen who had a strong country bias. It all depends if you are paying rent, have SS to cover basic expenses...
by Jaymover
Thu May 27, 2021 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I've put a powerful new line into my wealth tracker spreadsheet!
Replies: 70
Views: 14069

Re: I've put a powerful new line into my wealth tracker spreadsheet!

Jaymover, I too added something to my plan to show % drop if all asset classes have their worst year in modern history. Usually asset classes don't all have their worst year at the same time, so this measure is quite pessimistic. When experiencing FOMO with my moderate-to-conservative AA, I look at...
by Jaymover
Thu May 27, 2021 6:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Becoming frugal
Replies: 170
Views: 26111

Re: Becoming frugal

Avoid sugar, tobacco, alcohol Shop around the edges of the grocery store Never finance or lease anything (ok maybe a house) "Never finance or lease anything" Loans/leases/financing that can be positive: - educational - business - credit card - zero/low interest vehicle - rental home loan ...
by Jaymover
Thu May 27, 2021 6:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I've put a powerful new line into my wealth tracker spreadsheet!
Replies: 70
Views: 14069

Re: I've put a powerful new line into my wealth tracker spreadsheet!

I'd like to suggest another couple of lines: model what might happen if you rebalance from bonds to stocks (i.e. you are buying stocks 'cheap'), and then the market recovers even half of its loss. Getting tricky. The beauty of rebalancing is that it makes you feel a bit better about a crash. I have...
by Jaymover
Thu May 27, 2021 6:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I've put a powerful new line into my wealth tracker spreadsheet!
Replies: 70
Views: 14069

Re: I've put a powerful new line into my wealth tracker spreadsheet!

When does your model show this hypothetical crash occurring? And how long does the model show it will last? Of course no one knows and I think a significant dip is simply built in to the forecast low expected 10 returns which I have used in my retirement spreadsheet. The simple option is for me jus...
by Jaymover
Thu May 27, 2021 5:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I've put a powerful new line into my wealth tracker spreadsheet!
Replies: 70
Views: 14069

Re: I've put a powerful new line into my wealth tracker spreadsheet!

Not sure how powerful recording of a total wealth figure might be without a corresponding figure that indicates the purchase power of that figure. For bonds you might use the interest rate, adjusted for inflation (real yields). For stocks the dividend yield. For housing the rental yield. Without su...
by Jaymover
Thu May 27, 2021 2:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I've put a powerful new line into my wealth tracker spreadsheet!
Replies: 70
Views: 14069

I've put a powerful new line into my wealth tracker spreadsheet!

Based on some Boglehead comments read recently I have put a new line into my wealth spreadsheet which I update from time to time. I do my own rebalancing and am following an AA glide path of my choosing. The new line calculates my net worth if there was a catastrophic 50 percent share market crash. ...
by Jaymover
Thu May 27, 2021 2:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are so many people saying the real rate of return of US market is going to be low?
Replies: 242
Views: 29364

Re: Why are so many people saying the real rate of return of US market is going to be low?

I think the main point that is forgotten is that "there is no alternative". If equity returns are going to be low it is even more reason to stay the course and not increase your allocation into assets that will return even less. I think Mr Bogle has made this point in his past presentation...