Search found 214 matches

by Jaymover
Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:50 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Australian investor seeking advice on a 20 year plan
Replies: 54
Views: 16353

Re: Australian investor seeking advice on a 20 year plan

It is interesting that you are using the dividends to pay the interest bill. THis means that you are relying on capital gain until the point where the loan is paid off. I guess that means that you are relying on capital gains to do the heavy lifting until such point as the loans are paid off. When investing with your own money, to get the real return, you have to take off inflation. So a nominal return of 8% becomes around 5% (using the RBA's long term goal of 2-3% inflation) However, when you borrow to invest, inflation eats away at the real value of your debt, giving you a bonus that is equivalent to the money that was put into investments. Additionally, the interest is tax-deductible, so with OP probably on the 47% tax bracket, that wil...
by Jaymover
Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:14 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Australian investor seeking advice on a 20 year plan
Replies: 54
Views: 16353

Re: Australian investor seeking advice on a 20 year plan

Hockey I promise I'm not performance chasing. Like I said the drop in my portfolio is quite modest and there's no stress with the loan repayments, they're all covered by the dividends. I haven't done a single thing this year except buy more VEA yesterday since it's 18% less than what I paid for last December & I had 20K worth of dividends leftover. I'm just thinking about the longer 10 year returns for the US compared to the rest of the world. If Vanguard is predicting much lower returns given the high valuations of US stocks and given that I'm not an investor with big capital gains to realize I do have some flexibility to adjust the percentage of US stocks in my portfolio. It stands at 33% at the moment. The drop in the US stock just ...
by Jaymover
Tue Jul 05, 2022 8:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Summer Rain Jacket Recommendations
Replies: 45
Views: 4391

Re: Summer Rain Jacket Recommendations

lgs88 wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 9:25 am Patagonia makes great rain gear. It's not cheap, but as somebody who doesn't care for being cold and wet, I'm happy to pay the price.
+1

Patagonia Torrentshell is a category killer.

Durable, high quality, highly breathable and waterproof, pit zips (essential for warm weather use), great hood, compact and a huge array of colours.

Probably a bit more expensive than your budget but much cheaper than the equivalents of other brands, partly due to its sheer popularity and simple design.

Three cheers for Patagonia.

Durability is important as the frail lightweight jackets lose their waterproofing and then become unreliable or need replacing.

Seriously a few high quality items carefully looked after beats lots of rubbish
by Jaymover
Wed May 25, 2022 1:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A -20% correction sometimes IS followed by a recovery. Sometimes not. You just don't know.
Replies: 57
Views: 11068

Re: A -20% correction sometimes IS followed by a recovery. Sometimes not. You just don't know.

We may we'll see rate of inflation dissipate (prices have already gone up), tariffs dropped, a truce in Ukraine brokered by China, and, guess what, a recovery in stocks and bonds.

Don't they say optimists always win out over the pessimists
by Jaymover
Tue May 24, 2022 6:50 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: [Australia] Am I making a mistake by renting and investing instead of buying?
Replies: 34
Views: 5597

Re: [Australia] Am I making a mistake by renting and investing instead of buying?

A note is that real total return on property over the last 100 years is only 2.8 percent real whereas stocks are something like 6.5 percent real. Not as much as people think but yes if leveraged then the return on real estate is much better. The story is that real estate has generally only provided bond like returns if unleveraged, not the doubling every 10 years like everyone talks about. Is that 2.8% real return only the price return? Does it include rental income? If you buy a rental property you get both the price appreciation and rental income. If you buy a home to live in you save rent. You may very well be doubling your money every 10 years if you included the rental income/imputed rent. Real estate without leverage has performed pr...
by Jaymover
Tue May 24, 2022 6:46 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: [Australia] Am I making a mistake by renting and investing instead of buying?
Replies: 34
Views: 5597

Re: [Australia] Am I making a mistake by renting and investing instead of buying?

A note is that real total return on property over the last 100 years is only 2.8 percent real whereas stocks are something like 6.5 percent real. Not as much as people think but yes if leveraged then the return on real estate is much better. The story is that real estate has generally only provided bond like returns if unleveraged, not the doubling every 10 years like everyone talks about. Is that 2.8% real return only the price return? Does it include rental income? If you buy a rental property you get both the price appreciation and rental income. If you buy a home to live in you save rent. You may very well be doubling your money every 10 years if you included the rental income/imputed rent. Real estate without leverage has performed pr...
by Jaymover
Mon May 16, 2022 6:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Houseplants
Replies: 42
Views: 4697

Re: Houseplants

TRADESCANTIA

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tradescantia

It is a noxious crawling weed where I live. There are many varieties. However I found that if I break a bunch off and put it in a jar of water it grows and lengthens for years. The only maintenance is topping up the water as they are extremely hardy.

It doesn't like sunlight at all so you can put jars around the house in shady areas.

It is a weed so only put offcuts in the rubbish. However, as a cheap and easy way to green the corners of your house it is fantastic. If you put all the jars in a row up high then you get a green wall effect. I definitely think that lots of real, easy maintenance plants around help keep indoor air fresher
by Jaymover
Sun May 15, 2022 7:40 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: [Australia] Am I making a mistake by renting and investing instead of buying?
Replies: 34
Views: 5597

Re: [Australia] Am I making a mistake by renting and investing instead of buying?

You're young, unattached, and not planning on staying in Melbourne. You're the kind of person who ought to rent. In fact, you seem to be renting more house than you need for living by yourself. Having lived in Australia a long time, but not having been raised in Australia, one thing I've noticed is that Australians tend to fetishize real estate investment more than other places. You don't have to get caught up with that, even if others are telling you that you've got to buy some real estate. What to do with cash notionally earmarked for a future house deposit is a different question. Safe investments pay next to nothing still and aren't keeping up with inflation, though that may change. Still, it can happen seemingly quickly that you wake ...
by Jaymover
Sun May 15, 2022 7:34 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: [Australia] Am I making a mistake by renting and investing instead of buying?
Replies: 34
Views: 5597

Re: [Australia] Am I making a mistake by renting and investing instead of buying?

There is always the 5 percent rule advocated by Ben Felix. Check out his great you tube.



There are some important caveats though:
Rent must be no more than one third of income
save the difference
Must be aggressively invested

Also. I think whilst there are deep negative real interest rates buying tends win out over time if you stay put due to the rental inflation factor
by Jaymover
Thu May 12, 2022 5:05 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: [Australia] Am I making a mistake by renting and investing instead of buying?
Replies: 34
Views: 5597

Re: [Australia] Am I making a mistake by renting and investing instead of buying?

Makes sense. Are you aware of any spreadsheets/calculators or anything that I can compare buying a PPOR vs rent & invest in shares? I've been looking further into this and have knocked up a spreadsheet. PM me and I can email it to you and you can consider whether the assumptions are correct or not. It seems like leveraging into stocks may be a viable option, provided you have risk mitigation strategies in place. It so much depends on assumptions in this low yield future. Would this be right? PPOR absolute capital gain = starting mortgage rate Rent increase = inflation rate total Return on 80/20 portfolio = 6 percent real (not taking into account fees and taxes) minimum ownership costs = 0.5 percent It really depends if you want to stay...
by Jaymover
Thu May 12, 2022 2:02 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: [Australia] Am I making a mistake by renting and investing instead of buying?
Replies: 34
Views: 5597

Re: [Australia] Am I making a mistake by renting and investing instead of buying?

I too rent and invest rather than own with a mortgage. During 2019 I tried to buy in sydney but found it too hard. If I borrowed to the hilt I could only buy something at the lower end of the scale (lowish income, kids, separated). I got outbid a few times and emotionally exhausted. I did some modelling with an IFA and found that renting and investing worked out the same using long term return averages. My rental works well and is stable (76% of my suburb rents) and in a great spot so bugger it, I decided to invest and keep renting. SInce then it has been a rocky road of volatility and I have been trying to hang in there. I have doubted my decision quite often but each time the thought of going through the motions to buy something and have ...
by Jaymover
Wed May 11, 2022 3:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Living off of Dividends during volatility ... Strategy or Myth?
Replies: 93
Views: 6464

Re: Living off of Dividends during volatility ... Strategy or Myth?

I think you have to clarify the difference between dividends and distributions. If you own stock ETFs or managed funds then what you get is distributions, which comprise both realised capital gain during the ETF management process as well as shares of company dividends. When I last did my tax return I was quite surprised how much of the distribution amount comprised of capital gains, particularly for the "growthier" holdings. I imagine this will not be the case for the next distribution as there has been very little capital gain to be made. Technically dividends are not quite as good as what people make out as on the dividend day the total stock capitalisation falls by the amount of the dividend payout which means the total return...
by Jaymover
Tue May 10, 2022 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What changes in asset allocation you're considering?
Replies: 60
Views: 4127

Re: What changes in asset allocation you're considering?

I like to think that changing asset allocation during a pullback is a behavioral error. I try not to make mistakes based on fear because I know that people often do that and regret it ten years later. At least that has been my understanding of how things work in the investing world. Better to quit paying attention if you feel like making changes. Over the long run, the trend is up. My understanding is you will have better luck reducing risk asset exposure when the market is at all time highs and Vice Versa. Keeping to your well thought out AA will mean that right now you might modestly bump up your stock holdings if do anything at all Even if you may have been a little too aggressive in your pre determined AA you are kind of stuck with it ...
by Jaymover
Mon May 09, 2022 12:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652248

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Without trying to predict the future the stock market will eventually catch up with inflation in the form of an impressive rise. When and how that happens we don't know. It's just that the wait will feel bleak for many of us if we watch and wait.

The only solution is to turn off the news and do something fun!
by Jaymover
Fri May 06, 2022 3:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is following financial news pointless
Replies: 60
Views: 5802

Re: Is following financial news pointless

Some great comments thanks. It certainly hard to read the news right now and I remember enjoying it a year ago.

I think financial knowledge is useful to help temper the distress caused by negative volatility and so learning something about investing, even through news articles, helps with that.However I think it would be much better time spent reading some books or doing an online investing course.
by Jaymover
Sun May 01, 2022 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is following financial news pointless
Replies: 60
Views: 5802

Is following financial news pointless

I have been investing and showing an interest in the world stock and bond markets since late 2019. I have maintained my AA despite being emotionally thrown around by the roller coaster of news and opinion on unpredictable market fortunes. I reasonably closely followed the news from Morningstar and other financial media outlets which is often echoed on this forum. I have come to the conclusion that if the outlets were simply going to remind us to devise an AA strategy and then stay the course then they would not be much readership interest. So the financial media outlets have decided to advocate market timing through articles headlined; US stocks overpriced, cash is trash, time for ex US, LT bonds are a bad investment, EM stocks are a bad id...
by Jaymover
Tue Apr 26, 2022 10:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: New Investor at age 37! :D
Replies: 23
Views: 1915

Re: New Investor at age 37! :D

I started at 31 but was poorly informed about what I was doing so the point is have a well informed long term strategy in place as early as possible and sticking to it. Point 2 is if you are going to bother saving then invest you must. Point 3 is that early on in your investing career (presuming that you are planning not to touch your savings for decades) you can easily take on lots more risk. Eg if you have saved $20K and your savings rate is $10K per annum, if you are invested in 100% stocks and suffer a 50 percent stock market crash then in 12 months you will be back to where you were on savings alone. However it is likely the stock market would recover a bit during that 12 months and so at least part of the $10K you put in after the cra...
by Jaymover
Sun Apr 24, 2022 11:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement Mistakes
Replies: 115
Views: 29072

Re: Retirement Mistakes

This is a great thread.

Since planning for retirement I have become fixated on the idea of being old and unwell, not living where I want to live (too far from the kids) and running out of money and that's when I have a good 10 years of full time work ahead of me.

One line from the movie "Before Sunset" really stuck out for me. Julie Delphy was taking about her friend in NY who was constantly worried about not having enough money. Then he got a terminal diagnosis of cancer. The misery of that news was cancelled by the relief that he now had enough money.
by Jaymover
Sat Mar 26, 2022 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why must small cap value have higher expected returns?
Replies: 110
Views: 8011

Re: why must small cap value have higher expected returns?

Market participants are human and some humans have likely unrealistic expectations for some companies like Tesla. This is also likely true for many SG companies in sectors like battery technology. Only a handful (if that) of companies will likely succeed while the multitude won't. If you can figure out which SG companies will more likely succeed then investing in them might be prudent, but there doesn't seem to be a reliable way to determine this. Some people guess correctly, but most don't. A lot of market participants are computers using algorithmic trading. Everything above is also true for SV companies. Everyone is looking for the diamond in the rough. A few SV companies will succeed in defying market assessments, but most won't. I'm s...
by Jaymover
Sat Mar 26, 2022 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why must small cap value have higher expected returns?
Replies: 110
Views: 8011

Re: why must small cap value have higher expected returns?

I've got about 5 percent of my portfolio in small caps. I don't expect them to return more than all the other stuff over the long term and they are more risky which is why only 5 percent

The main benefit is the added diversity. If you don't hold small caps then you miss out on all the small cap diversity that is available across developed markets.

Someone can probably explain this in more technical terms but having some small caps maintains expected returns on your portfolio with slightly reduced risk due to the diversity it brings.

Same goes for EMs. It is risky not having at least some exposure to the markets within where most of the global population lives.
by Jaymover
Tue Mar 15, 2022 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock rule of thumb I often see makes no sense
Replies: 29
Views: 3393

Re: Stock rule of thumb I often see makes no sense

I think it is just a benchmark to help make AA decisions. It is not the drop that is important so much but the time to recovery which could be 1, 2 5 and 10 years. Generally the bigger the drop the longer the time to recovery. This means that you need to hold off touching that invested money for up to 10 years and makes you think that if that is the case then the money you might need before then needs to be quarantined. If you dont believe in recovery after a drop then dont invest in shares. The trouble is that many people have aggressively invested money that they might need in less than 10 years (eg college fund, house deposit) in the share market. 10 years is pretty pessimistic though and if you expect that then dont invest in shares. I ...
by Jaymover
Tue Mar 15, 2022 6:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cost of whole house heat pump
Replies: 99
Views: 8267

Re: Cost of whole house heat pump

We had energy audit from local utility company. They mentioned our AC is on its last legs (over 25 yo) and that there are state rebates if part of some of your heating is done by a heat pump. In MA the limit is $10,000 and I believe its $1500 per ton. We had a few vendors come in and quotes have started to come in. First one I received was for 5 Ton systems (for each main level and bedrooms level, upstairs so total tonnage 10 ). It is ~$30K. I have no way of judging if this is a good price or not. The tonnage is definitely higher than our existing systems. However I am told that since we will be heating and cooling the house with it, the system needs to be higher than what we currently have (which is just AC). For reference we are in Bosto...
by Jaymover
Tue Mar 15, 2022 1:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar released their new report on SWR. [Safe Withdrawal Rate]
Replies: 255
Views: 23049

Re: Morningstar advises SWR decrease from 4% to 3.3%

It is a little scarey all of this. Basically you need a whole lot more in savings than the average person to contemplate retirement. This means that most people will work until they are dead. Probably there will be plenty of low level jobs around in future to make this possible. A big factor is insurance I reckon. Insurance costs for older people who cannot go on working due to disability are becoming way too expensive and the government safety net isnt there for those without community and family support available. Also, the purchasing power of future pensions seems to be eroding due to inflation. I think the reality is that people will need to work at least until their 70 in a "proper job" to allow them to draw more than 3% of ...
by Jaymover
Tue Mar 15, 2022 12:20 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: European Vacation and Ukraine crisis
Replies: 55
Views: 5223

Re: European Vacation and Ukraine crisis

Just go, even Poland, go. There is a moral argument to go. The last thing Europe needs right now is for tourists to avoid it. You may find things less busy and people more friendly.

I lived near warzones in eastern Europe back when the Balkans were raging. Eg Austria was right next door to Croatia when it was at war with the Serbs. Even 30 minutes drive from the fighting things were normal.

No-one will let you near an area where there are dangers. Guns, checkpoints and soldiers become apparent. You might only find that in eastern Poland.
by Jaymover
Tue Mar 15, 2022 12:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Airbnb vs. Hotel
Replies: 90
Views: 9773

Re: Airbnb vs. Hotel

Only tried Airbnb once. Was a fitted out barn with pleasant enough owners next door. Not cheap. The thing was that we were supposed to "clear up" prior to exit which we did. However they complained to us that we didn't clean up enough. Also, one of the blinds came off the wall because the drywall screws didnt hold. We didn't get penalised but it was a humiliating experience. Never used Airbnb again. So the hosts seemed to want us to prepare the place for the next guests at $350 a night. They also used the very cheapest low quality fittings to keep costs down when they built their little earner. I have never had this sort of problem with hotels. Airbnbs aren't so cheap these days probably because they are so easily searchable by ta...
by Jaymover
Wed Mar 09, 2022 6:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
Replies: 678
Views: 630352

Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Great original thread. I will make a note of my current jitters for when the market recovers
by Jaymover
Tue Mar 08, 2022 8:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is living in HCOL self sabotage?
Replies: 145
Views: 12523

Re: Is living in HCOL self sabotage?

I live in a HCOL area. Sometimes you end up in one with the opportunity of moving to a cheaper area difficult eg divorce and kids, ageing parents nearby, career, great friend network that is hard to part with, or just homeostasis. The hard fact if you have a family is that housing is expensive unless you already have wealth or are on a high income. You don't get bang for your buck; you either have a big mortgage or pay a lot of rent. Services can also be expensive but due to economies of scale some things are cheap. If you are on an average income this means that you don't have much disposable income left for other stuff. Unless your HCOL has lots of great free or cheap things to do, eg parks, beaches, free art galleries etc, you end up sta...
by Jaymover
Tue Mar 08, 2022 3:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bond allocation substitute
Replies: 22
Views: 2379

Re: Bond allocation substitute

Because investors decided that inflation was never going to be a risk again, many of us have been caught out and reassessing our portfolios, me included. Hopefully your investment statement is based on solid foundation and you just stay the course with it. Probably too late to make drastic changes. The changes are supposed to be made way before the eventuality actually happens. Probably a poor decision to move to move asset allocations when markets look jittery and everyone thinks the end of the world is nigh. As "fortune" has it my defensive allocation has always been about 70 percent cash and 30 percent diversified bonds. My bond holdings have given me zero absolute return since I bought them and cash about 1 percent absolute re...
by Jaymover
Tue Mar 08, 2022 5:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio - is it really that good?
Replies: 107
Views: 24499

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio - is it really that good?

Personally I thought the GB looked dubious back during the post covid bull market. However now it looks to be rather clever with the sizeable gold providing a strong hedge against major calamity.

Interesting how this thread resurrected itself only recently.
by Jaymover
Tue Mar 08, 2022 5:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Catching the falling knife
Replies: 124
Views: 14605

Re: Catching the falling knife

Times like these it is best to switch off the news and stop looking at your portfolio. I have carefully rebalanced every 3 months, even if it's just a few thousand here and there. I will continue this habit. I will look at my portfolio in late April and either the market has recovered due to some sort of cease fire, or I will have to buy more stocks. Buy and hold is probably the easiest and most fruitful strategy in the end. I realise that I might be a little too aggressively invested for my liking as this latest dip has given me the jitters. However I will make note of that and possibly dial down the risk next time the market reaches record highs which could be a few years from now. Better realising that now. Good to remember that shares a...
by Jaymover
Sun Mar 06, 2022 12:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Support for Syrians, Yemenis, Afghanis, rohingya
Replies: 8
Views: 1791

Re: Support for Syrians, Yemenis, Afghanis, rohingya

Apparently people are booking Aibnbs in Ukraine without the intention of staying. A form of direct gifting.
by Jaymover
Sat Mar 05, 2022 8:40 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Australian investor seeking advice on a 20 year plan
Replies: 54
Views: 16353

Re: Australian investor seeking advice on a 20 year plan

Well it's taken awhile and I agonized over my portfolio's asset allocation. In the end I finally got my home loan approved: 2.4M interest only fixed 4 years at 2.49% 2.3M standard variable rate ( 3% currently). This will serve as a reserve in case of a market buying opportunity in the future. I drew down the full 2.4M interest only and added 1M of my own cash ( which should've been invested but wasn't!). I put this is my discretionary trust. I used interactive brokers for the US ETFs because of the amazing exchange rates & Selfwealth for the Australian ETFs to get Chess sponsorship. I allocated: 30% VAS Vanguard Australian index 26% VTI Vanguard Total US 9% AVUV Avantis US small cap value 20% VEA Total developed ex-US 6% AVDV Avantis d...
by Jaymover
Tue Feb 22, 2022 12:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 40% pay cut for gov job?
Replies: 91
Views: 12689

Re: 40% pay cut for gov job?

Two points

Government jobs can sometimes end up being very stressful.

Generally government jobs attract friendly people and so together with less hours might mean that it is good for your social connections.
by Jaymover
Mon Feb 14, 2022 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652248

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Although it is not encouraged to look at your total wealth too much it is sometimes good to look at your financial position in general and compare it with what you might have modelled when you first started investing. Although I am down 5% or so since the "peak" I am still ahead (about 10 percent ahead due to former stellar gains) of where I should be on my model. This means that I can cope with a further fall as it might just bring me back to where I should be. If I am behind where I should be in a couple of years then maybe I can look at trying to increase my income and saving more without screwing my mental health and family relationships. Not much left in relation to trimming expenses and stagflation is a worry where expenses ...
by Jaymover
Thu Jan 27, 2022 6:23 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: ASX - Australian Investing - Situation
Replies: 12
Views: 2315

Re: ASX - Australian Investing - Situation

I said that some ASX bias is probably good if you live in the country and don't own real estate (about 40 percent of Australia's population). Australia's economy is so much about its real estate and the ASX is a correlated to real estate due to all the banks etc. If Australia were to continue booming whilst the rest of the world tanks (a small possibility) then you might end up on the street due to rents rising way faster than incomes with a poorly investment account to draw on. The super funds are winding back their ASX holdings partly because the majority of Australians with sizeable super balances are already heavily exposed to Australian real estate, often extremely so with huge interest only investment loans etc. You can look up Vangua...
by Jaymover
Thu Jan 27, 2022 6:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Windfall - mutual fund or real estate?
Replies: 22
Views: 2786

Re: Windfall - mutual fund or real estate?

Thanks everyone for all the replies, as usual I am amazed at the wealth of information and lived experiences in this community. I'm thinking it's probably not a wise investment if my primary goal is capital growth. Were I to rent to friends, I'd want to charge them pretty much my monthly nut + calculated cost of repairs over time. So, I guess that makes this more of a speculative investment. Some more information: House is 3 bed/2 bath. Let's say likely sale price of $580k. Mortgage + tax + insurance would be ~$2640 I'd probably charge $3k The friends I would be renting to have fairly stable jobs but not gov't stable. They do have family wealth that could be tapped in a pinch. I'm in the Montavilla neighborhood, west of 80th (for the one p...
by Jaymover
Thu Jan 27, 2022 3:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22381
Views: 2120405

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

peskypesky wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:24 pm
z3r0c00l wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:09 pm
stocknoob4111 wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:49 pm Small Caps are really going south... yikes!
They lost a whole year's progress.
Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund ETF Shares (VBR) is still up 16% for one year.
Depends so much on when you start the clock. Try starting the clock 10 Feb 20
by Jaymover
Thu Jan 27, 2022 3:20 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: ASX - Australian Investing - Situation
Replies: 12
Views: 2315

Re: ASX - Australian Investing - Situation

You can go a DIY asset allocation in line with VDHG. There is more info on that here. https://passiveinvestingaustralia.com/vdhg-or-roll-your-own/ You could dial down the VAS allocation and dial up the international part. You might just want to keep it simple and dispense with NASDAQ as VGS etc is pretty heavily weighted with tech shares anyway. In my opinion some reasonable VAS home bias is good to have if you don't own Australian property. The unhedged VISM and VGE components of the allocation have done pretty poorly since COVID which may mean that it is a good time to have the tilt there. Otherwise you could just by more VGS (or VESG ethical screen slightly more tech heavy) and not have those tilts. The big heads at Vanguard think that E...
by Jaymover
Wed Jan 26, 2022 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22381
Views: 2120405

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

It seems to me that you dont buy shares or stock etfs unless you are prepared to hang on to them for 5-7 years at least. Increases in interest rates will suppress share values. However over time (years) profits will soar, dividends and distributions will increase handsomely and then eventually stock prices will go up again. Wont be nice seeing your net worth diminish in the short term but in the longer term will see it increase due to yield and a gradual reflation of asset prices. Of course you can sit in cash for 5-7 years. Probably interest rates will push up cash yields a bit. However this may not happen as banks salvage their loan books by continuing to punish savers over borrowers. Of course there also could be a global recession in w...
by Jaymover
Wed Jan 26, 2022 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22381
Views: 2120405

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

They lost a whole year's progress. yeah, painful for me as I have 25% Small Caps :shock: Combined with my International allocation of 20%, I am losing money like it's going out of style :annoyed US Large Cap stocks seem to be the only thing continuing to do relatively better, everything else has not done well at all in the last 10 years. I just bought a small parcel of small cap ETFs today to help rebalance a little as about 3% under AA. THey are priced at what they were two years ago. I figure that is a bargain. Big caps may capture this current contagion as millenials start selling off their ETFs. WHen they are priced to what they were two years ago I will buy some then maybe The thing that upsets me more is that my bond ballast is also ...
by Jaymover
Wed Jan 26, 2022 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22381
Views: 2120405

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

It seems to me that you dont buy shares or stock etfs unless you are prepared to hang on to them for 5-7 years at least. Increases in interest rates will suppress share values. However over time (years) profits will soar, dividends and distributions will increase handsomely and then eventually stock prices will go up again. Wont be nice seeing your net worth diminish in the short term but in the longer term will see it increase due to yield and a gradual reflation of asset prices. Of course you can sit in cash for 5-7 years. Probably interest rates will push up cash yields a bit. However this may not happen as banks salvage their loan books by continuing to punish savers over borrowers. Of course there also could be a global recession in w...
by Jaymover
Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22381
Views: 2120405

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

It seems to me that you dont buy shares or stock etfs unless you are prepared to hang on to them for 5-7 years at least. Increases in interest rates will suppress share values. However over time (years) profits will soar, dividends and distributions will increase handsomely and then eventually stock prices will go up again. Wont be nice seeing your net worth diminish in the short term but in the longer term will see it increase due to yield and a gradual reflation of asset prices. Of course you can sit in cash for 5-7 years. Probably interest rates will push up cash yields a bit. However this may not happen as banks salvage their loan books by continuing to punish savers over borrowers. Of course there also could be a global recession in wh...
by Jaymover
Tue Dec 14, 2021 10:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Suggestions for 3 weeks in Europe w/kids
Replies: 39
Views: 4305

Re: Suggestions for 3 weeks in Europe w/kids

Could drive Paris, Provence, Riviera, French Alps, Paris. Or in opposite order. Hard to beat France for food, some peace and quiet if needed, scenery, castles, ruins mountains. I was quite surprised how beautiful it was driving through the northern Provence areas, quiet moonscapes with spires of rock on flat plains etc. Something like Nevada or Utah but with more greenery and better food. If your kids liked the TV series Miniscule, you will be strangely reminded of it when you are in Provence. Driving is okay in France, probably better to get a smaller car as parking can be a headache and roads narrow. However we got a people mover and that was cool too. If you have kids then you could go public transport as it is fun for the kids but could...
by Jaymover
Thu Dec 02, 2021 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The risk of DEATH ---- under-discussed on this forum?
Replies: 258
Views: 22764

Re: The risk of DEATH ---- under-discussed on this forum?

Most older people, even those well off ones, are on antidpressants. Sickness and death sucks whether you are a carer or recipient. Not sure if money is everything, more about community family relationships etc. My 104 year old granny has no money, benefits most from her daughter living near by. Says she just spends her days reminiscing about the good times (and skipping reminiscing about the bad times). That doesnt cost much.
by Jaymover
Thu Dec 02, 2021 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do index funds inflate the cost of indexed assets? If so...
Replies: 10
Views: 921

Re: Do index funds inflate the cost of indexed assets? If so...

I think there have been various opinions put forward over the years that the big index funds distort markets in a bad way. However most of these theories have been discredited via backtesting etc. I imagine the most popular broad index ETFs (which I invest in) raise all boats by the same amount. There is some studies that show that companies not in the index miss out on this lifting which might be a good reason to invest a bit in small cap ETFs etc. ETFs have helped the common man invest and so lots more savings are now flowing into the market (broadly) via the broad ETFs. This is of course inflating the markets just like it inflates the property market as the population ages and people keep saving more for a possible retirement. Sit on the...
by Jaymover
Wed Dec 01, 2021 9:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22381
Views: 2120405

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Catch 22 see. Omicron bad, economy bad. Omicron okay, fed tapers bad.

This may be the beginning of the expected correction. Damned if I can pick the bottom though.... :confused
by Jaymover
Tue Nov 30, 2021 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Under what conditions is a 50/50 portfolio worse than any other?
Replies: 103
Views: 13057

Re: Under what conditions is a 50/50 portfolio worse than any other?

I know that back-tests can show you what hasn't ever worked, but it can't show you what will work, and I have no rational basis for believing that a 60/40 portfolio going forward will out-perform a 30/70 portfolio over my investment period. I've looked at the Golden Butterfly, All Seasons, and Permanent Portfolios, and while interesting, I do worry that they are essentially back-tested to perfection, and may have nothing to do with the future. Financial markets aren’t totally random so back testing is one of the few tools we have to make strategic plans. I figure that if you go 50/50 you can only ever be half wrong, but is this itself wrong? Can a 50/50 actually be much worse than picking an overweight to bonds or stocks? Yes. Both logic a...
by Jaymover
Tue Nov 30, 2021 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Under what conditions is a 50/50 portfolio worse than any other?
Replies: 103
Views: 13057

Re: Under what conditions is a 50/50 portfolio worse than any other?

I think the problem going forward is that it is a low yield world and there are no ways around it. The most pessimistic Credit Suisse forecast is that stocks will give a 3% real return, a typical 70/30 balanced a 2% real return and diversified bonds a -0.5% real return. I presume then that 50/50 might then give you 1.5% real return. This is real return and so if inflation picks up then it really makes no differenc what your asset allocation is, unless you are overweight in bonds and therefore will lose to inflation over time. The thing is that going 100 percent stocks instead 50:50 in an ultra low yield future will only give you a trifling 1.5% extra return in exchange for a whole lot of extra risk. The 1.5 percent extra is not insignifica...
by Jaymover
Tue Nov 30, 2021 12:02 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Will a liquidity crisis result in higher interest rates on cash deposits?
Replies: 3
Views: 1561

Re: Will a liquidity crisis result in higher interest rates on cash deposits?

Liquidity crisis? No sign of one, anywhere? 1. Yes if your bank needs to borrow in the markets, is viewed as riskier by the markets, and so has to pay a higher interest rate 2. No based on the actions of Central Banks post 2008. Because the first thing they do is step up their Quantitative Easing programmes, buying huge amounts of securities in the markets, and thus flooding the banks with cash. This is exactly what they did in March-April 2020 during the beginnings of the Covid crisis. Flooded the system with liquidity, and drove down interest rates. TBH a liquidity crisis like 2008 is saying basically the banks are bust. That is disastrous for the economy and unless governments step in, for depositors. In Australia this was the scenario ...