Search found 322 matches

by Astones
Tue Jun 15, 2021 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is market capitalization the correct metric?
Replies: 64
Views: 4686

Re: Is market capitalization the correct metric?

When you weight according to market cap, your weights will move together with the market fluctuations, without the need of adjustments on your part. For any other metric you'll have to re-weight every now and then because your weights will not move together with the underlying securities, and pay fo...
by Astones
Sun May 16, 2021 7:29 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: ETF choice and asset allocation (based in EU)
Replies: 11
Views: 2510

Re: ETF choice and asset allocation (based in EU)

I look at my assets and rebalanceas soon as the distributions hit my account (4x per year). A great reminder. Reinvesting every time there is a distribution requires a big commitment and you might incur in transaction costs, depending on your brokerage account. Morever, in some accounts in addition...
by Astones
Sun May 16, 2021 1:05 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: ETF choice and asset allocation (based in EU)
Replies: 11
Views: 2510

Re: ETF choice and asset allocation (based in EU)

Is there a reason you prefer the iShares world and emerging market UCITS over the Vanguard ones? Is it cost? Costs should be close enough, but there are other reasons for choosing iShares. 1) larger fund size. This is the main reason. When it comes to passive investing, it is generally considered w...
by Astones
Sun May 16, 2021 10:45 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: ETF choice and asset allocation (based in EU)
Replies: 11
Views: 2510

Re: ETF choice and asset allocation (based in EU)

As I don't know if I'll want to take income each year, do I need to put some assets into a distributing fund like Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS ETF IE00B3RBWM25 USD? No. Accumulating is better. If you really need money you can still sell some shares. However, my wife thinks that given our age, and ...
by Astones
Sat May 15, 2021 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS - Did you give up?
Replies: 483
Views: 94919

Re: TIPS - Did you give up?

Buying VTIP and SCHP have been one of the few very good ideas I had at the end of last year.
by Astones
Sat May 15, 2021 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Globally Diversified or Worsified?
Replies: 207
Views: 12663

Re: Globally Diversified or Worsified?

Fluctuations in the stock market can have time scales of the order of decades. The historical data we have at our disposal -or at least those that we can take seriously- are all within a time window of about a century. A century, while it might sound a long time interval on many other aspects, is a ...
by Astones
Sat May 15, 2021 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In what condition, will international significantly overperform US?
Replies: 178
Views: 15554

Re: In what condition, will international significantly overperform US?

In the conditions we have right now. There has been a significant increase in the P/E in the past years. Sooner or later the P/E will reverse to the mean, because it always does. In order for this to happen, either earnings will grow at a faster pace than they have so far -but why would it happen?- ...
by Astones
Sat May 15, 2021 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency hedged bond ETFs ?
Replies: 20
Views: 1270

Re: Currency hedged bond ETFs ?

How old are you now and how far out in the future will you go back to Europe? If you're young enough, maybe just avoid the issue entirely by avoiding bonds entirely. I'm 30 and I'll likely go back in the close future, like end of year. I've seen people suggesting to avoid bonds, indeed. I felt like...
by Astones
Sat May 15, 2021 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency hedged bond ETFs ?
Replies: 20
Views: 1270

Re: Currency hedged bond ETFs ?

It's not a nitpick, it's a clarification of the framing of the role of bonds. I don't hold foreign bonds as the risk free asset, nor do I expect them to be. IMHO, if the objective of holding bonds is simply to hold the risk free assets, I wouldn't include foreign bonds in that bucket, or even corpo...
by Astones
Fri May 14, 2021 10:31 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: What happened to AGGH ? (Euro hedged global aggr)
Replies: 8
Views: 2268

Re: What happened to AGGH ? (Euro hedged global aggr)

More intuitive is the Morningstar fund chart of AGGH (blue and filled) in comparision to the index LEGATRUU (black), the unhedged, distributing version AGGG (red, the currency risk manifested itself as a chance in the choosen period) and a newer Vanguard competitor VAGF (green). As always, Mornings...
by Astones
Fri May 14, 2021 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency hedged bond ETFs ?
Replies: 20
Views: 1270

Re: Currency hedged bond ETFs ?

Take your pick. I pick unhedged bonds because I avoid making the bold decision to be USD exclusive with bonds. I do not hold them right now because the amount of funds toward bonds is not meaningful to justify it (I already have a bit of international stock which is not often hedged). How is curren...
by Astones
Fri May 14, 2021 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency hedged bond ETFs ?
Replies: 20
Views: 1270

Re: Currency hedged bond ETFs ?

Agreed. Outside US there might be additional problems, but in principle unhedged seems to be the right way to go.
by Astones
Fri May 14, 2021 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency hedged bond ETFs ?
Replies: 20
Views: 1270

Currency hedged bond ETFs ?

I was watching a Sharpe interview, and he came up with a sort of cryptical sentence when talking about bond funds his "perfect portfolio". "The international bond fund is currency hedged. I don't know how I feel about it " And he just left it there....... I tried to do a little b...
by Astones
Fri May 14, 2021 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?
Replies: 974
Views: 88228

Re: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?

Where are they getting 5.24% from? Even before 2020, ARKK had an annualized return of 21% according to Portfolio Visualizer. If you include 2020 and 2021, it's 34% annualized What this data is telling you is that most investors started buying ARKK at a later stage, and relatively few were in the ga...
by Astones
Fri May 14, 2021 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should the Total World Index include Crypto?
Replies: 30
Views: 2549

Re: Should the Total World Index include Crypto?

US Stocks CRSP US Total Market $42,541,751.08 34.65% Stocks VTSAX Ex-US Stocks FTSE Global All Cap ex-US $30,708,034.10 25.01% 59.67% VTIAX US Bonds FTSE USBIG $24,492,867.24 19.95% Bonds VBTLX Ex-US Bonds FTSE WorldBIG - USBIG $22,361,044.12 18.21% 38.16% VTABX Crypto CoinMarketCap $2,460,000.00 2...
by Astones
Fri May 14, 2021 9:16 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Should I add small-cap ETF?
Replies: 12
Views: 2096

Re: Should I add small-cap ETF?

This is really a great answer and well explained. Thank you for listing all these details. A conviction to stay with a fund for up to 17 years in order to get benefits out of it is not really a thing that I would probably do. I guess it's human nature to always seek complicating stuff when they are...
by Astones
Fri May 14, 2021 4:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should the Total World Index include Crypto?
Replies: 30
Views: 2549

Re: Should the Total World Index include Crypto?

I never understood the fuzz is about market cap weighting assets to begin with. The market cap is simply the price tag the market puts on a certain specific company. There is no other guidance hidden in that market cap that we may try to read into it. The market offers no advice that one's personal...
by Astones
Fri May 14, 2021 12:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should the Total World Index include Crypto?
Replies: 30
Views: 2549

Re: Should the Total World Index include Crypto?

I believe that the theory behind the choice of investing in the whole market is solid only if we reduce our definition of market to the assets that can create added value. So no, I don't believe crypto should be included, nor commodities or other currencies for what matters. Many people disagree wit...
by Astones
Thu May 13, 2021 10:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $365 billion wiped off cryptocurrency market after Musk tweet
Replies: 108
Views: 9511

Re: $365 billion wiped off cryptocurrency market after Musk tweet

I can’t help the folks who buy the truly speculative or scam coins. They’ll gamble and many of them will lose. But there are plenty of crypto tokens that can and will disrupt traditional finance—the same institutions that leech off of average people on the daily. Or will disrupt the use of gold as ...
by Astones
Thu May 13, 2021 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?
Replies: 974
Views: 88228

Re: Anyone investing in ARKK since it was first mentioned here is now behind VTI

JonnyDVM wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 6:42 pm
July 20. Still up, but have lost a lot of money since OP jinxed it.
Are you the poster who was waiting for summer in order to have the tax advantage ? You have been very unlucky with the timing so far.
by Astones
Thu May 13, 2021 6:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Too Good To Be True Portfolio
Replies: 35
Views: 4154

Re: Too Good To Be True Portfolio

Bentonkb wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 6:46 pm What is it he fatal flaw here? Is it possible to make a real world portfolio like this?
Your leverage costs will be larger than the yield you get from the bonds.
by Astones
Thu May 13, 2021 6:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?
Replies: 974
Views: 88228

Re: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?

I think it's about time for someone to say... ARKK has had a negative correlation with stocks, ρ = -0.71. That's even higher than Long Treasuries! What a great diversifier! What a bad news. I have been shorting ARKK in the hope of having an insurance over being long on VT... With negative corr it w...
by Astones
Thu May 13, 2021 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto: New Asset Class or Sector or ???
Replies: 25
Views: 1692

Re: Crypto: New Asset Class or Sector or ???

Crypto currencies are currencies, and they'll always be. Then, people started asking themselves the obvious question: if they're currencies what justifies all this excitement about them? Nobody is equally excited about investing in the yen after all. The correct answer would be "indeed the exci...
by Astones
Thu May 13, 2021 1:20 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: 3 Fund Portfolio - UK Investor
Replies: 12
Views: 1669

Re: 3 Fund Portfolio - UK Investor

Valuethinker wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 12:45 pm Doesn't the FTSE all-world fund include small caps as we?
Unfortunately not. Only large and medium.
by Astones
Thu May 13, 2021 12:34 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: 3 Fund Portfolio - UK Investor
Replies: 12
Views: 1669

Re: 3 Fund Portfolio - UK Investor

Hi, I've never invested before, and this is my first post on Bogleheads. I've just read Taylor Latimore's book on the 3 Fund Portfolio. I'm 27 and was going to invest in (weighting more towards stocks given my age and the long-term nature of my investments): Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (...
by Astones
Thu May 13, 2021 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is inflation bad...
Replies: 89
Views: 8175

Re: Is inflation bad...

Inflation increases the price if things. Assets are a thing. Since equities are a claim on real economic productive assets, equities have been a excellent hedge against inflation. In general this is true, but it seems that inflation has already affected stock prices before it could affect the price...
by Astones
Wed May 12, 2021 7:21 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Tell an inexperienced investor ETF or Dividend? [Ukraine]
Replies: 19
Views: 1513

Re: Tell an inexperienced investor ETF or Dividend?

platfsholding wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 10:37 am according to history, such a portfolio in 2008 and 2020 was at a loss by 15%, and SPY by 50%
Well, with 25% cash.........

You know, a portfolio in which you don't invest in any asset would go down by 0% in case of market crisis.
by Astones
Wed May 12, 2021 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard short term inflation protected bonds (TIPS)
Replies: 18
Views: 1638

Re: Vanguard short term inflation protected bonds (TIPS)

watchnerd wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 7:00 pm Returns?

From bonds?

What year are we talking about? ;)
Are you kidding, of course the returns I'm talking about are the ones I have renounced by not buying stocks instead haha
by Astones
Wed May 12, 2021 6:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard short term inflation protected bonds (TIPS)
Replies: 18
Views: 1638

Re: Vanguard short term inflation protected bonds (TIPS)

I have been having VTIP and SCHP in my portfolio since before it was cool, so far I have sacrificed a significant portion of my returns because of that, but I'm still hopeful that it will end up being a wise strategy.
by Astones
Wed May 12, 2021 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10-20% Bonds? What’s the point?
Replies: 251
Views: 17061

Re: 10-20% Bonds? What’s the point?

I've run few simulations, and it seems that when it comes to international it's much easier to see 20+ years periods in which 90/10 does better than 100/0, and again, this is true even when bonds are strongly underperforming , due to the remarkable power of low correlation and the influence of volat...
by Astones
Wed May 12, 2021 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10-20% Bonds? What’s the point?
Replies: 251
Views: 17061

Re: 10-20% Bonds? What’s the point?

A 10-year long transition from 100/00 to 70/30 is pretty gradual in practice. If the market "crashes" one year into such a transition, the difference between 100/00 and 97/03 isn't going to be a material difference and - if you have the ability - you can react by simply increasing your sa...
by Astones
Wed May 12, 2021 6:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When would you buy cryptocurrency?
Replies: 199
Views: 13132

Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

I can only see myself getting crypto coins in case I want to actually use them for a transaction, for whatever reason, which is what they're supposed to be about.

I don't invest in currency and commodities, and indeed I have very little cash as well.
by Astones
Wed May 12, 2021 12:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10-20% Bonds? What’s the point?
Replies: 251
Views: 17061

Re: 10-20% Bonds? What’s the point?

I’ll simply state again: Over long periods of time an all stock portfolio will have a better chance of generating higher returns than a portfolio that includes bonds. And truly I mean no offense to you or anyone else who uses bonds as there are many sound reasons to do so. No offense taken The data...
by Astones
Wed May 12, 2021 12:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10-20% Bonds? What’s the point?
Replies: 251
Views: 17061

Re: 10-20% Bonds? What’s the point?

With that said, it is not surprising to me that many people use bonds in their portfolios, and for a lot of good reasons. What wouldn’t be a good reason, would be including bonds in the accumulation phase as a way to maximize overall returns. Perhaps there is something that shows bonds to have both...
by Astones
Tue May 11, 2021 11:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10-20% Bonds? What’s the point?
Replies: 251
Views: 17061

Re: 10-20% Bonds? What’s the point?

It stands to reason AND research that SCV can underperform for long periods of time, and the historical returns are hard to rely on anyway. your points about SCV are immaterial to this. It doesn't sound immaterial to me. Actually, I'm surprised that you don't arrive to the conclusion I was expectin...
by Astones
Tue May 11, 2021 11:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10-20% Bonds? What’s the point?
Replies: 251
Views: 17061

Re: 10-20% Bonds? What’s the point?

My attempt to make a simple point missed the mark: SCV is simply one asset class of the market, it is not the entire market. VTI is by definition the Total Market, stocks not bonds, and yes the US Market. I will bet more on the strength of the Total Market, as opposed to a mere asset class...but it...
by Astones
Tue May 11, 2021 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10-20% Bonds? What’s the point?
Replies: 251
Views: 17061

Re: 10-20% Bonds? What’s the point?

Unless the equity risk premium vanishes, it is, but that's not what I was referring to. By using the term 'mathematically', I'm differentiating from 'behaviorally', which I've noted in this thread can very likely lead one to a more balanced portfolio. Ok now I understand, thanks for the clarificati...
by Astones
Tue May 11, 2021 7:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10-20% Bonds? What’s the point?
Replies: 251
Views: 17061

Re: 10-20% Bonds? What’s the point?

I never said "U.S." And I stated what I meant by mathematically: maximizing returns, then maximizing the safe withdrawal rate. The fact that with 100/0 you'll maximize the return is not a mathematical result. It's just a fair guess based on the assumption that stocks will behave in this c...
by Astones
Tue May 11, 2021 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10-20% Bonds? What’s the point?
Replies: 251
Views: 17061

Re: 10-20% Bonds? What’s the point?

Mathematically , a fairly strong case can be made for a 100/0 AA until about 10 years from retirement, in order to maximize returns, that begins moving to a target 70/30 at retirement, in order to maximize the safe withdrawal rate. What do you mean with "mathematically" ? Over the past ce...
by Astones
Tue May 11, 2021 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10-20% Bonds? What’s the point?
Replies: 251
Views: 17061

Re: 10-20% Bonds? What’s the point?

KlangFool wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 2:55 pm I had been through too many recession/economy crisis. I was unemployed for more than 1 year a few times. But, I survived and thrived. I am FI in my 50+ years old. I do not count on luck to be successful. I choose to be resilient.
It sounds like a wise approach to life.
by Astones
Tue May 11, 2021 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?
Replies: 974
Views: 88228

Re: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?

the other issue is that most of the people that had skin in the game won't be around as based on the outflows they no longer have any skin in the game! they've moved onto the next high flying product. but yes the reason these products are even known is because of their past performance. if they wer...
by Astones
Tue May 11, 2021 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?
Replies: 974
Views: 88228

Re: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?

<r><QUOTE author="txhill" post_id="5999844" time="1620746559" user_id="173113"><s>[quote=txhill post_id=5999844 time=1620746559 user_id=173113]</s> I have no skin in the game but I really hope ARKK takes off again just to pour some water on the schadenfreude going on here. <e>[/quote]</e></QUOTE> Wh...
by Astones
Tue May 11, 2021 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odd Lots: Why Passive Investing Might Be Distorting The Market (Podcast)
Replies: 56
Views: 7787

Re: Odd Lots: Why Passive Investing Might Be Distorting The Market (Podcast)

The hedge fund manager should be happy for the "distortions", so that he can make money over the alleged market inefficiencies.
by Astones
Tue May 11, 2021 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?
Replies: 974
Views: 88228

Re: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?

like their entire portfolios moved into these funds. and literally the past 24 hours many of them are posting, scratching their heads, "did i make a mistake?" contemplating whether they should sell or not! none of those products are even at half the markets return YTD. some are in the red...
by Astones
Mon May 10, 2021 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10-20% Bonds? What’s the point?
Replies: 251
Views: 17061

Re: 10-20% Bonds? What’s the point?

climber2020 wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 7:52 pm We only get one shot.
This is an excellent point. It might be unlikely that the worst happens i the wrong moment, but it can still happen, and your life is a single shot experience, you don't run simulations in life.
by Astones
Mon May 10, 2021 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10-20% Bonds? What’s the point?
Replies: 251
Views: 17061

Re: 10-20% Bonds? What’s the point?

whereas bond-holders would have to start buying bonds to rebalance out of stocks. of course during a crisis the weight of stocks decreases with respect to bonds, therefore the mixed portfolio holders will sell some bonds and buy more stocks to rebalance back to their preferred allocation, which is ...
by Astones
Mon May 10, 2021 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10-20% Bonds? What’s the point?
Replies: 251
Views: 17061

Re: 10-20% Bonds? What’s the point?

A couple of things. a) LTTs look great because the yields were falling the last 40 years. Unless you believe in negative yields, the four-decade-long trend likely has ended. b) Previously you called the diff of 100/0 vs 80/20, 10.3% vs 9.8%, small / minor / insignificant or whatever. Now you turned...
by Astones
Mon May 10, 2021 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10-20% Bonds? What’s the point?
Replies: 251
Views: 17061

Re: 10-20% Bonds? What’s the point?

It's admirable that you're able to admit that your intuition was incorrect. I mean, "admirable", these are numbers, either I'm right or I'm wrong, there's not much room to grasp at straws. Then, yes, you are right, finding a case in past history is different from foreseeing it before it h...
by Astones
Mon May 10, 2021 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10-20% Bonds? What’s the point?
Replies: 251
Views: 17061

Re: 10-20% Bonds? What’s the point?

That link doesn't show your simulation. You need to specifically generate a link for that, it's some option somewhere on the same page. Damn, sorry. I'll look for it, but anyway my simulation is time window 1995-2020 portfolio 1 = 100 US total stock market portfolio 2 = 95 US total stock market/ 5%...
by Astones
Mon May 10, 2021 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10-20% Bonds? What’s the point?
Replies: 251
Views: 17061

Re: 10-20% Bonds? What’s the point?

I made all the possible comparisons that came to my mind for 20 and 30 years. In most cases, 100/0 does, indeed, win over <100, and when someone is wrong it is important to acknowledge it. My intuition was incorrect. I did find, however, the case I had in mind, of lower volatility triumphing over lo...