Search found 905 matches

by ApeAttack
Mon Mar 25, 2024 11:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Those complimentary dinners for retirees by investment advisors
Replies: 137
Views: 10164

Re: Those complimentary dinners for retirees by investment advisors

oldmotos wrote: Mon Mar 25, 2024 10:50 am
You're not really trapped in a timeshare presentation unless you believe that you are. The mind can create limits at times that don't exist in reality.
A common practice I have seen is bussing the group to see different properties which makes it tougher to leave early.
When I was in my 20s and didn't have a lot of money, my girlfriend and I were offered 200 dollars to attend a time share presentation that was only supposed to take a couple hours. We were bussed 15 minutes away to the property.

It ended up taking four hours and we felt trapped the entire time since we didn't get the money until the very end and we had no transportation. Since then, I've vowed to never attend something like that again.
by ApeAttack
Sat Mar 16, 2024 10:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The best game-changing financial advice you ever received (or "discovered")
Replies: 219
Views: 25582

Re: The best game-changing financial advice you ever received (or "discovered")

At the start of the pandemic, it was the first time I ever paid close attention to the stock market and financial news. I was amazed that "experts" had wildly different predictions about what the market would do in the months ahead. It soon became clear that many of all of them were overconfident buffoons/grifters/salesmen/etc., and financial news was useless for making predictions about the future (it still can be useful for helping understand what has occurred in the past). Well, maybe a few people have better insight into what the market will do in the future, but it is impossible to know ahead of time who will make the most correct predictions. The natural conclusion was to develop an investment strategy that does not rely on ...
by ApeAttack
Fri Mar 08, 2024 2:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: what to do with I Bonds
Replies: 24
Views: 3060

Re: what to do with I Bonds

I'm in a similar situation. I'm strongly considering redeeming my 2 year old I-Bonds (taking a 3 month interest hit) that are part of my EF and closing my TD account to simplify my finances. It would be one less account I have to keep track of. I'm gradually seeing the beauty in simplicity.

I would put the money into an existing HYSA (likely earning a bit less interest in the long run) or an existing taxable account.

.
by ApeAttack
Fri Mar 08, 2024 1:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 16 yr old - how can I best take on high risk?
Replies: 65
Views: 5610

Re: 16 yr old - how can I best take on high risk?

Never thought bogleheads would be the site where a 16 year old gets advice to leverage and buy individual mega cap stocks. Not cool, fellow forum members. What about the standard request for advice on BH: "I have this much money and I'm xx years old, how should I invest it ?" In this case the guy is about a quarter of the age of the typical BH poster. Any reason he should get the very same advice ? Exactly. The time advantage means OP doesn't have to take on extra risk beyond being 100% total stock market. OP could even do 60:40 stock:bond, with the stock part being total world, and still be fine. Define "fine". Ugh. You know what is meant by "fine". But let's waste everyone's time by spelling it out. Assuming...
by ApeAttack
Thu Mar 07, 2024 10:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 16 yr old - how can I best take on high risk?
Replies: 65
Views: 5610

Re: 16 yr old - how can I best take on high risk?

the_wiki wrote: Thu Mar 07, 2024 10:31 pm You are already going to have outsized gains because of the massive time advantage. You don't need to go looking for extra risk to get ahead. The AVGE fund you already hold is a very reasonable choice for an all-in-one fund. You don't need anything more. Investing in a 100% stock portfolio with some international and value diversification is already high risk and as much as you need.
Exactly. The time advantage means OP doesn't have to take on extra risk beyond being 100% total stock market. OP could even do 60:40 stock:bond, with the stock part being total world, and still be fine.
by ApeAttack
Mon Mar 04, 2024 1:11 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Moving to San Diego from Sleepy Low Cost Area
Replies: 77
Views: 8196

Re: Moving to San Diego from Sleepy Low Cost Area

penumbra wrote: Sun Mar 03, 2024 11:09 pm
snackdog wrote: Sun Mar 03, 2024 9:52 pm I have always thought of San Diego as a sleepy seaside town. Not much industry. A bit of tourism here and there. A few sailors and some college professors hanging about.
You thought way, way wrong. Did you last visit in 1953? :)
I was thinking the same thing. SD is very urban (population over a million) and has a very lively Gaslamp district.
by ApeAttack
Sun Mar 03, 2024 4:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Starting to get a little queasy with my AA
Replies: 31
Views: 4621

Re: Starting to get a little queasy with my AA

"I'm also cognizant of the last market disaster in which bonds failed to be a ballast." Personally, I wouldn't call 2022 a disaster. It was a 10 month downturn in US stocks, which recovered in 2023. Bond funds declined, but they will be paying higher dividends going forward and will regain some of the losses if/when the Fed lowers interest rates later this year. It wasn't like 2000, 2008, or 2020 when the entire economy was a disaster. If that were to happen again, the Fed likely would lower interest rates, benefitting bond funds. Of course, something completely new could happen and nothing would be safe for several years. Yes, I wasn't referring to 2022 when I said "last market disaster". I was actually thinking of 200...
by ApeAttack
Sun Mar 03, 2024 11:10 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: OK to pay down large chunk of mortgage?
Replies: 35
Views: 2843

Re: OK to pay down large chunk of mortgage?

Xrayman69 wrote: Sun Mar 03, 2024 8:41 am
ApeAttack wrote: Sun Mar 03, 2024 1:06 am I was lucky enough to get a 2.5% refi during the pandemic. There's no way I will pay this down earlier than the agreed upon schedule.

Every year, my mortgage payment becomes smaller and smaller in real terms.

But hey... It's your decision.
We did the same thing. My only regret was when we refinanced it was for a 15 year period, wish we would have done 30 years.

OP, money market currently 5+% at vanguard. 5% > 2.75%. It’s just math. Put 150K in money market and draw down every month.
If I had a higher income, I might have gone with a 15 year refi too since the rate would have been a little lower compared to the 30 year rate.
by ApeAttack
Sun Mar 03, 2024 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar's ratings for international stock funds are misleading
Replies: 28
Views: 2539

Re: Morningstar's ratings for international stock funds are misleading

Who invests based on M* ratings ? Me when I first started investing and didn't know enough to make better decisions on my own. Even in retrospect, I don't think it was a terrible decision. I could have done better on my own. Maybe. Could have done considerably worse too, and the odds probably weren't in my favor either. Honestly, I still apply this logic to reviews e.g. for restaurants. When faced with the unknown, stick to 4+ stars. You aren't guaranteed an amazing meal, but you can have a reasonable degree of confidence that you'll at least get a decent one. Except 4+ star restaurants typically stay 4+ stars for many years into the future. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/013016/are-morningstars-best-mutual-funds-really-be...
by ApeAttack
Sun Mar 03, 2024 1:06 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: OK to pay down large chunk of mortgage?
Replies: 35
Views: 2843

Re: OK to pay down large chunk of mortgage?

I was lucky enough to get a 2.5% refi during the pandemic. There's no way I will pay this down earlier than the agreed upon schedule.

Every year, my mortgage payment becomes smaller and smaller in real terms.

But hey... It's your decision.
by ApeAttack
Sun Mar 03, 2024 12:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar's ratings for international stock funds are misleading
Replies: 28
Views: 2539

Re: Morningstar's ratings for international stock funds are misleading

Who invests based on M* ratings ? Me when I first started investing and didn't know enough to make better decisions on my own. Even in retrospect, I don't think it was a terrible decision. I could have done better on my own. Maybe. Could have done considerably worse too, and the odds probably weren't in my favor either. Honestly, I still apply this logic to reviews e.g. for restaurants. When faced with the unknown, stick to 4+ stars. You aren't guaranteed an amazing meal, but you can have a reasonable degree of confidence that you'll at least get a decent one. Except 4+ star restaurants typically stay 4+ stars for many years into the future. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/013016/are-morningstars-best-mutual-funds-really-be...
by ApeAttack
Sun Mar 03, 2024 12:06 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Starting to get a little queasy with my AA
Replies: 31
Views: 4621

Re: Starting to get a little queasy with my AA

"I'm also cognizant of the last market disaster in which bonds failed to be a ballast."

Personally, I wouldn't call 2022 a disaster. It was a 10 month downturn in US stocks, which recovered in 2023. Bond funds declined, but they will be paying higher dividends going forward and will regain some of the losses if/when the Fed lowers interest rates later this year.

It wasn't like 2000, 2008, or 2020 when the entire economy was a disaster. If that were to happen again, the Fed likely would lower interest rates, benefitting bond funds.

Of course, something completely new could happen and nothing would be safe for several years.
by ApeAttack
Sat Mar 02, 2024 4:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Invest cash when interest goes down
Replies: 52
Views: 5392

Re: Invest cash when interest goes down

Unless you have a really huge amount of cash, trying to gain an extra percent or so from your cash won't make much difference compared to what your retirement investments earn (on average).
by ApeAttack
Thu Feb 29, 2024 10:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The recent surge: stand pat or "sell high?"
Replies: 54
Views: 6563

Re: The recent surge: stand pat or "sell high?"

If you sell now, and the market continues to rise, how do you know when to buy back in?

If the market begins to go down, how do you know when to buy back in?
by ApeAttack
Thu Feb 29, 2024 11:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When did your Net Worth surpass your lifetime earnings?
Replies: 93
Views: 11836

Re: When did your Net Worth surpass your lifetime earnings?

cheese_breath wrote: Wed Feb 28, 2024 2:53 pm Probably around 3 to 4 years old when my grandma gave me a nickle. Other than that I haven't kept track.
Adjusting for inflation, that nickel is worth $25,639.32 today.
by ApeAttack
Thu Feb 29, 2024 11:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When did your Net Worth surpass your lifetime earnings?
Replies: 93
Views: 11836

Re: When did your Networth surpass your lifetime earnings?

Cheez-It Guy wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 5:59 pm Shouldn't we make this as hard as possible to calculate?
I rarely chuckle when reading this forum.

I chuckled at this comment.
by ApeAttack
Thu Feb 29, 2024 11:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When did your Net Worth surpass your lifetime earnings?
Replies: 93
Views: 11836

Re: When did your Net Worth surpass your lifetime earnings?

RickBoglehead wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 10:00 pm Have no idea what lifetime earnings are.
Same here. All I care about is investing enough money each month so I will have a good chance of being able to retire when I'm 60 (if I choose to do so).
by ApeAttack
Wed Feb 28, 2024 11:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Zelle Questions: safety, speed, uses?
Replies: 57
Views: 5601

Re: Zelle Questions: safety, speed, uses?

I would only use Zelle for people I completely trust or businesses when the work is 100% complete (i.e., at the end of a project). I know someone who paid 5k via Zelle to a travel agent who ended up committing a lot of fraud. That 5k was never recovered, but people who used credit cards were able to recover their money. Non sequitur. Same result if he had paid by cash, personal check, cashier check, and probably even money order. Zelle is not and was never intended to be a replacement for a CC. I explained when I would use Zelle and why. I never said those other forms of payment offer more protection than Zelle. You're doing a great job of pushing over that strawman though. :beer Seems apparent to me that you were the one that posted the a...
by ApeAttack
Wed Feb 28, 2024 5:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Zelle Questions: safety, speed, uses?
Replies: 57
Views: 5601

Re: Zelle Questions: safety, speed, uses?

LotsaGray wrote: Tue Feb 27, 2024 2:02 pm
ApeAttack wrote: Tue Feb 27, 2024 12:35 pm I would only use Zelle for people I completely trust or businesses when the work is 100% complete (i.e., at the end of a project). I know someone who paid 5k via Zelle to a travel agent who ended up committing a lot of fraud. That 5k was never recovered, but people who used credit cards were able to recover their money.
Non sequitur.

Same result if he had paid by cash, personal check, cashier check, and probably even money order. Zelle is not and was never intended to be a replacement for a CC.
I explained when I would use Zelle and why. I never said those other forms of payment offer more protection than Zelle.

You're doing a great job of pushing over that strawman though. :beer
by ApeAttack
Tue Feb 27, 2024 12:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Zelle Questions: safety, speed, uses?
Replies: 57
Views: 5601

Re: Zelle Questions: safety, speed, uses?

I would only use Zelle for people I completely trust or businesses when the work is 100% complete (i.e., at the end of a project). I know someone who paid 5k via Zelle to a travel agent who ended up committing a lot of fraud. That 5k was never recovered, but people who used credit cards were able to recover their money.
by ApeAttack
Tue Feb 27, 2024 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?
Replies: 310
Views: 29716

Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

I remember a dumb idea I heard back in the 90s. Tech folks were going to create a much smaller handheld device that combined TV, computer, radio and phone (awkward!), that you could bring with you anywhere, even get a call on top of a mountain. Absurd! Who would want something like that? /s Well, it has ruined society, ruined normal social functioning and relationships, turned everyone into screen jockeys, made kids lazy, and generally made people dumber. If you only focus on the negative aspects of a technology, then it will always seem like a step backwards. Modern smartphones allow me to learn about things that I wouldn't have been able to before, instantly communicate and coordinate with friends and family, easily compare prices for it...
by ApeAttack
Tue Feb 27, 2024 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?
Replies: 310
Views: 29716

Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

I think this AI thing might go somewhere but just like the Internet revolution I'm more excited for what it'll do to all industries rather than trying to pick winners and losers. For instance I just read that McDonalds is trialing AI for drive thru ordering. Pretty small potatoes (pun) application but hey, if they can eliminate that one position in the store or redeploy that employee to the kitchen for faster service, just imagine what that could do across a company that size, let alone other drive thru businesses. Some of this stuff will fail terribly like self checkout. If deployed in the wrong areas, shrink goes through the roof at the cost of an employee barely making more than minimum wage. Doesn’t make sense to throw lots of money to...
by ApeAttack
Tue Feb 27, 2024 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?
Replies: 310
Views: 29716

Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

I think this AI thing might go somewhere but just like the Internet revolution I'm more excited for what it'll do to all industries rather than trying to pick winners and losers. For instance I just read that McDonalds is trialing AI for drive thru ordering. Pretty small potatoes (pun) application but hey, if they can eliminate that one position in the store or redeploy that employee to the kitchen for faster service, just imagine what that could do across a company that size, let alone other drive thru businesses. Some of this stuff will fail terribly like self checkout. If deployed in the wrong areas, shrink goes through the roof at the cost of an employee barely making more than minimum wage. Doesn’t make sense to throw lots of money to...
by ApeAttack
Sat Feb 24, 2024 12:38 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Diversification means always having to say you’re sorry.
Replies: 62
Views: 7372

Re: Diversification means always having to say you’re sorry.

Beensabu wrote: Fri Feb 23, 2024 8:04 pm
ApeAttack wrote: Fri Feb 23, 2024 4:19 pm Just for fun, at the end of many trading days I briefly look at how the various components of my portfolio performed on a percentage basis (e.g., +0.36% VOO, -0.48% VXUS, etc.).
I do that every day lol. Even though it means nothing and I do nothing about it.
I think it helps me become accustomed to the ups and downs of the market. Some days will be +/- a fraction of a percent, other days will be more extreme. After a while, I no longer cared what happens day-to-day. I literally felt nothing in 2022 as the market declined by about 25% over 10 months, and felt nothing as it has soared since then.
by ApeAttack
Fri Feb 23, 2024 4:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Diversification means always having to say you’re sorry.
Replies: 62
Views: 7372

Re: Diversification means always having to say you’re sorry.

Beensabu wrote: Thu Feb 22, 2024 10:27 pm
jyun wrote: Thu Feb 22, 2024 5:11 pm The significant surge in the Magnificent 7 over the past year has made it challenging for people who diversify their asset allocation.
Has it?
Just for fun, at the end of many trading days I briefly look at how the various components of my portfolio performed on a percentage basis (e.g., +0.36% VOO, -0.48% VXUS, etc.).

However, I have no idea which companies are currently at the top of the indices. I only heard of the magnificent 7 while browsing Reddit... I guess that's the new FAANG. In a few years, there will be a new set of top stocks with their own cute name.

I have no problem with the Magnificent 7... just keep shoveling money into my tax advantaged accounts.
by ApeAttack
Tue Feb 20, 2024 6:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in bitcoin
Replies: 7
Views: 1218

Re: Investing in bitcoin

ScubaHogg wrote: Tue Feb 20, 2024 6:17 am In before the lock
In too
by ApeAttack
Sun Feb 18, 2024 1:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Amateur hour [New investor seeking guidance]
Replies: 19
Views: 2015

Re: Amateur hour [New investor seeking guidance]

How much of an emergency fund do you have? It is recommended to have 3 to 6 months of expenses. I think six months is the minimum. If you don't have that saved up, investing can wait. I'm starting to realize that I don't have six months of an emergency plan, and I agree that the minimum should be six months. I have three months of an emergency plan. It was tough these days to save money while everything was so expensive, and I didn't see an increase in my salary to match the inflation of everything else. When employment is uncertain, that's when an emergency fund helps you sleep at night. As you start on your saving and investing journey, consider the prioritizing investments wiki page as a guide. See link: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/...
by ApeAttack
Fri Feb 16, 2024 2:06 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What are Good Investments for Someone with Low Risk Tolerance?
Replies: 30
Views: 3993

Re: What are Good Investments for Someone with Low Risk Tolerance?

jaMichael wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2024 12:30 am AI stocks and low risk tolerance don’t go together. Have you read a primer on investing, such as the Bogleheads Guide to Investing? That might be a good place to start.

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Boglehe ... _Investing
That was my first thought too. Many stocks and low risk tolerance don't go together, let alone AI related stocks.
by ApeAttack
Wed Feb 14, 2024 12:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any benefit of keeping BOA saving account
Replies: 17
Views: 1422

Re: Any benefit of keeping BOA saving account

I've had a BofA checking and savings accounts for a couple decades due to inertia. As part of a larger plan to streamline and simplify my finances, I will be closing the account in a month. Afterwards, my wife and I will have just one checking account with a major bank. If I die suddenly, it will be one less thing my wife has to deal with.
by ApeAttack
Mon Feb 05, 2024 11:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: No Need for More than 6-Month Emergency Fund?
Replies: 27
Views: 3247

Re: No Need for More than 6-Month Emergency Fund?

nguy44 wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2024 7:32 pm I would spend the $5K and get it out of the way. Then do so extra saving over the next 2-3 months to build it back up. You are not talking about going from 7-8 months to 2, you are going to 6, which in my view is a relatively small change. What matters is how quickly you can build it back up to a level that you are comfortable with, which should not take long.
+1. Get it over with. You'll be glad to have the repair done and still have a lot of money available for something unexpected.

After this is over, consider having an EF of 8 months instead of 6 months.
by ApeAttack
Mon Feb 05, 2024 11:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Vanguard just won't stop sending me paper mail
Replies: 36
Views: 3910

Re: Vanguard just won't stop sending me paper mail

Call them up and threaten to take your business elsewhere if they don't resolve the issue.
by ApeAttack
Sun Feb 04, 2024 3:28 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best Costco Value Detergent?
Replies: 25
Views: 2553

Re: Best Costco Value Detergent?

leland wrote: Sun Feb 04, 2024 3:21 am We use the Kirkland no scent - seems to work fine. Will be a while until we get to try something else as the bottle is so big.
Great bargain. I get the same.
by ApeAttack
Sun Feb 04, 2024 3:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do you budget?
Replies: 59
Views: 5891

Re: How do you budget?

Spreadsheet. We technically create a "budget" every year based on last year's expenses with a slight increase for inflation. But we don't really follow it anymore. Our expenses have maintained at about the same amount every year, with the exception of any large purchases. We do track our expenses though - it's hard to know when you're hit 25X if you don't know what X is. Same. I use the term "forensic budget". We sit down and look for opportunities to trim stuff based on last year. It's been only moderately successful for us, but as others here advocate, we have always "paid ourselves first" so the spending happens post-savings. I have a friend who is a mix of savvy and dysfunctional when it comes to money. He...
by ApeAttack
Sun Feb 04, 2024 1:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: DW Laid Off, I'm Panicking
Replies: 166
Views: 20906

Re: DW Laid Off, I'm Panicking

Let's wait until OP can reply to these comments.

It's clear he's in a great financial situation that 98%+ of Americans wishes they could be in. Maybe there's other details that were omitted.
by ApeAttack
Sat Feb 03, 2024 6:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I gained 21% this year so far in my IRA. What should I do?
Replies: 49
Views: 6206

Re: I gained 21% this year so far in my IRA. What should I do?

ValueTrade wrote: Sat Feb 03, 2024 9:42 am
ApeAttack wrote: Sat Feb 03, 2024 12:42 am Quick mental exercise... What will happen to your account if something like 2022 happens again?
There are two answers:

1. Add a stop loss. This is the most basic thing that should be done with any high risk / high return investment. That could be set at 5, 10 or even 20%.

2. Hold. It never went to zero and if you were able to ride out that catastrophe you'd be profitable now. An index of the biggest tech stocks in world is never going to go to zero.
If you have a stop loss at 20%, your investments go down 20% and you sell everything, how do you know when to buy again?
by ApeAttack
Sat Feb 03, 2024 12:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Overcontributed to 401k $66,000 total - What to do?
Replies: 9
Views: 1539

Re: Overcontributed to 401k $66,000 total - What to do?

whodidntante wrote: Thu Feb 01, 2024 8:24 pm I love the problems people have on this forum.

Breakin the law. Breakin the law. 🎶
This forum is quickly becoming the dark web.
by ApeAttack
Sat Feb 03, 2024 12:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I gained 21% this year so far in my IRA. What should I do?
Replies: 49
Views: 6206

Re: I gained 21% this year so far in my IRA. What should I do?

Quick mental exercise... What will happen to your account if something like 2022 happens again?
by ApeAttack
Fri Jan 26, 2024 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Will AI Change Investing?
Replies: 111
Views: 11160

Re: How Will AI Change Investing?

No one knows. If I knew, I wouldn't be telling anyone in order to profit from it.
by ApeAttack
Mon Jan 22, 2024 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what point of the accumulation process (DCA), do you hope the market goes up?
Replies: 24
Views: 1976

Re: At what point of the accumulation process (DCA), do you hope the market goes up (from a practical basis)?

For someone with advanced degrees in Finance, I was taught that fundamentals would determine if it was a good or not so good of a time to enter the market or to keep some powder dry for when (not if) the market tumbled. Then I learned about dollar cost averaging and not to time the market. Then I learned that greed and fear have much more power than fundamentals on the movement in the short term atleast . If the market continues to go down or just to tread water...many peeps can't stand to see their portfolio tank so they sell and lock in their losses. Then have to guess again when to get back in. Finally I realized via Bogleheads that dollar cost averaging is probably the best us mere mortals can do. So just invest when you can and go abo...
by ApeAttack
Sun Jan 21, 2024 1:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what point of the accumulation process (DCA), do you hope the market goes up?
Replies: 24
Views: 1976

Re: At what point of the accumulation process (DCA), do you hope the market goes up?

I hope I get a steady 10% CAGR for the rest of my life. I have no idea what will actually happen.

I'm in the middle of my accumulation period and every day the market goes up feels good. When the market goes down, I don't feel bad since I know I have many years to recover and I can buy stocks cheaply.
by ApeAttack
Thu Jan 18, 2024 8:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buying AMD
Replies: 43
Views: 5393

Re: Buying AMD

To OP:

You're fairly new to this forum (unless you were lurking for a while before joining), so you may not realize your post is the antithesis to the forum's motto... "Investing advice inspired by John Bogle."

Timing the market and stock picking is not what John Bogle advised, and you won't find much support for it here. No one knows if buying AMD at that price is a good idea in the short or long term, and if someone really did know they wouldn't be sharing that information in a public forum.
by ApeAttack
Thu Jan 18, 2024 12:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to prove that I am not losing money with bond funds?
Replies: 118
Views: 15085

Re: How to prove that I am not losing money with bond funds?

Have you held a bond fund for its stated average maturity and lost capital yet? Is this a trick question? From what date do you measure the applicable holding period? Retrospectively, from the date of each purchase into the fund? Or prospectively, from today’s date? And given that the average maturity likely isn’t constant, but rather fluctuates a bit over a period of time—even during the fund’s original average maturity period—what number should you use? Isn’t a bond fund (like an intermediate term one) constantly rolling, such that there is no real maturity of the fund or it’s holdings, as they get sold off when they age out of the fund’s preferred holding term period? I thought Beensabu was asking whether a bond fund with a duration of ...
by ApeAttack
Wed Jan 17, 2024 8:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help needed from a cowardly investor
Replies: 22
Views: 2897

Re: Help needed from a cowardly investor

After reading Bogleheads book, I want to get started but I am a early retiree and I am afraid that my stock will cut into half in a year or two into my retirement. On high level, I have 40 time my annual yearly expenses with enough insurance to take care of health emergency and with no debts. May I know if anyone have similar fear like me? And how you overcome it? I am not comfortable to buy lump sum for a 50/50 portfolio at current market high. If I use DCA, may I know how long is the optimal period? DCA Every month for a year, two years or three years? So much fear to get started at current market high. Shiller PE of 32, 😱 What current market high do you have in mind? After inflation, stocks are below where they were in December 2021. Si...
by ApeAttack
Wed Jan 17, 2024 6:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does everybody notice about this chart?
Replies: 50
Views: 3194

Re: What does everybody notice about this chart?

What I noticed with this chart were two things, 1) There are noticeable bumps in the chart with the initial $10k per year contributions, up until $100k is reached. After that, the annual contributions barely make any noticeable impact on the growth chart. The takeaways from this chart is to be diligent about making those annual contributions for the first decade of investing, the first $100k is the hardest. After that the markets takeover, your own contributions don't really matter. We have a winner (I removed the complication, sorry). Also, it was only $5k per year contributions, but hey you are on the right track. Bottom line? Understand what lakpr posted and, Educate the youth to invest early and often. Your point after all this was tha...
by ApeAttack
Wed Jan 17, 2024 6:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does everybody notice about this chart?
Replies: 50
Views: 3194

Re: What does everybody notice about this chart?

What I noticed with this chart were two things, 1) There are noticeable bumps in the chart with the initial $10k per year contributions, up until $100k is reached. After that, the annual contributions barely make any noticeable impact on the growth chart. The takeaways from this chart is to be diligent about making those annual contributions for the first decade of investing, the first $100k is the hardest. After that the markets takeover, your own contributions don't really matter. We have a winner (I removed the complication, sorry). Also, it was only $5k per year contributions, but hey you are on the right track. Bottom line? Understand what lakpr posted and, Educate the youth to invest early and often. Your point after all this was tha...
by ApeAttack
Sun Jan 14, 2024 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 20 year equity return always positive
Replies: 64
Views: 8395

Re: 20 year equity return always positive

watchnerd wrote: Sun Jan 14, 2024 1:00 pm
ApeAttack wrote: Sun Jan 14, 2024 12:53 pm US stocks doing poorly for the next 20 years seems impossible, but if it happens it will seem obvious in hindsight.

The importance of diversification to prevent portfolio devastation is a natural consequence of the 🦃 problem.
Impossible?

I can think of all sorts of reasons why the rest of the 21st century may not give stock returns as good as the last 30 years, from 40 year secular credit cycles reverting to aging demographics on a global scale.
Not impossible for you and I to imagine.
by ApeAttack
Sun Jan 14, 2024 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 20 year equity return always positive
Replies: 64
Views: 8395

Re: 20 year equity return always positive

Imagine I’m falling from an airplane starting at 10000ft. “I’ve got 19 different 500ft falls without hitting the ground. Therefore, I’m safe!” The next 500ft might end differently :shock: Taleb's 🦃 problem. From The Black Swan: "Consider a turkey that is fed every day, every single feeding will firm up the bird’s belief that it is the general rule of life to be fed every day by friendly members of the human race ‘looking out for its best interests,’ as a politician would say. On the afternoon of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, something unexpected will happen to the turkey. It will incur a revision of belief." Of course, this doesn't tell us what to invest in, just that nothing is certain going forward. US stocks doing poorly ...
by ApeAttack
Sat Jan 13, 2024 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Preparing for a talk with my financial advisor
Replies: 78
Views: 10110

Re: Preparing for a talk with my financial advisor

Keep the advisor for now. Educate yourself. There is nothing on fire here. Later you can decide if you want to discuss a pivot with the advisor or going DIY. This is the best suggestion. It will be extremely counter-productive for the OP to go in "armed" with a couple of days' information. Instead the OP could use the meeting to simply learn more about the intended role of the different investments in the portfolio now. I also suggest to OP that he take it slow and not make hasty decisions. After finding this forum, it took a few months before I learned enough to feel comfy making changes to my portfolio competently. I now have a five-fund portfolio with low cost index mutual funds that I can stick with for the rest of my life (S...
by ApeAttack
Mon Jan 08, 2024 4:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Am I Crazy? Every Account is SP500 Index
Replies: 61
Views: 10579

Re: Am I Crazy? Every Account is SP500 Index

lakpr wrote: Mon Jan 08, 2024 2:31 am
ApeAttack wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 11:40 pm Is your job very safe so the odds of getting laid off during a recession (when stocks likely will decline) is very low?

If there is a significant risk of getting laid off, you may want to add bonds to buy yourself more time to find a new job without having to sell stocks at a loss.
Hasn't 2022 disillusioned you yet? You will just end up selling bonds at a loss; the vessel which will leak might be different but leaking remains the same
That was a very unusual event that was unrelated to a recession.

If a recession occurred due to the interest rate hikes, the Fed likely would have lowered rates to stimulate the economy and bonds would have rebounded quickly.