Search found 374 matches

by checkyourmath
Sat Mar 13, 2021 4:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If you hit your # would you retire in this market?
Replies: 68
Views: 7687

Re: If you hit your # would you retire in this market?

The level of uncertainty is slightly higher than anything we have seen in maybe four generations. :confused Wow. Really? I look back over the past 80-120 years and see plenty of times with far more uncertainty. I'm 66. Perhaps you are younger? This question would be better in like five years maybe ...
by checkyourmath
Fri Mar 12, 2021 10:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it feel bubbly to you?
Replies: 214
Views: 15648

Re: Does it feel bubbly to you?

1 percent gains a day keeps the doctor away. 2021 is going to be a 10 bagger for sure. Zero risk with only upside because interest rates are so low. I don't know why people only buy equities when they could just buy the option which cost less and has way more upside.
by checkyourmath
Fri Mar 12, 2021 10:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it feel bubbly to you?
Replies: 214
Views: 15648

Re: Does it feel bubbly to you?

mrspock wrote: Fri Mar 12, 2021 5:46 am I'm curious...What is Charlie and Warren doing with their money as a response to this bubble? Selling assets? Equities?

Nope. We best probably follow that part of their wisdom as well.
Correct they are just holding a mountain of cash and even more cash through Apple.
by checkyourmath
Fri Mar 12, 2021 7:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If you hit your # would you retire in this market?
Replies: 68
Views: 7687

Re: If you hit your # would you retire in this market?

Easy answer. No The level of uncertainty is slightly higher than anything we have seen in maybe four generations. If we had universal health care sure everyone would retire but even with 25x under the age of 50 there are too many unknowns. This question would be better in like five years maybe when ...
by checkyourmath
Fri Mar 12, 2021 4:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Renting for life - a bad idea?
Replies: 154
Views: 11012

Re: Renting for life - a bad idea?

It all depends upon the numbers. I do enjoy people buying housing right now. The numbers are absurd in most urban areas. The riding the wave thing is fun if you are lucky, but probably no so fun if the wave turns into a tsunami. The median home purchase price in our neck of the Greater Boston Area ...
by checkyourmath
Fri Mar 12, 2021 4:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Renting for life - a bad idea?
Replies: 154
Views: 11012

Re: Renting for life - a bad idea?

It all depends upon the numbers. I do enjoy people buying housing right now. The numbers are absurd in most urban areas. The riding the wave thing is fun if you are lucky, but probably no so fun if the wave turns into a tsunami. The median home purchase price in our neck of the Greater Boston Area ...
by checkyourmath
Fri Mar 12, 2021 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we in a housing bubble?
Replies: 298
Views: 36743

Re: Are we in a housing bubble?

No way are we in a housing bubble. Rent forbearance is even more complicated than mortgage forbearance. Housing is about a 60/40 split with 40 percent of the people being renters. As long as the loan appreciates more than the loan interest there is no problem in the housing market, but rent prices h...
by checkyourmath
Fri Mar 12, 2021 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we in a housing bubble?
Replies: 298
Views: 36743

Re: Are we in a housing bubble?

Check back after June 30th, 2021 or six months after that if they decide to extend it for a third time. Mortgage forbearance eventually will end. A couple million homes being held out of the supply is a big deal. The honeymoon stage is over. We were all generally poor before this and will be after t...
by checkyourmath
Thu Mar 11, 2021 9:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Renting for life - a bad idea?
Replies: 154
Views: 11012

Re: Renting for life - a bad idea?

It all depends upon the numbers. I do enjoy people buying housing right now. The numbers are absurd in most urban areas. The riding the wave thing is fun if you are lucky, but probably no so fun if the wave turns into a tsunami. The median home purchase price in our neck of the Greater Boston Area ...
by checkyourmath
Tue Mar 09, 2021 8:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: children roth ira
Replies: 29
Views: 2092

Re: children roth ira

there are several posts about this, mostly of the "can I pay my kids to do chores so I can fund their Roth?" variety. so far you've done three things wrong: 1. accepted a video on the internet about investing as gospel 2. not questioned your accountant despite him having given you bad adv...
by checkyourmath
Tue Mar 09, 2021 10:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Renting for life - a bad idea?
Replies: 154
Views: 11012

Re: Renting for life - a bad idea?

It all depends upon the numbers. I do enjoy people buying housing right now. The numbers are absurd in most urban areas. The riding the wave thing is fun if you are lucky, but probably no so fun if the wave turns into a tsunami.
by checkyourmath
Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Timing the bond market
Replies: 35
Views: 2635

Re: Timing the bond market

How long until that big company stops buying bonds? I don't want to compete with 80 billion a month. I am fine with waiting until price discovery comes back until then let's watch the yield climb and the price fall. I don't know if anyone else is following the Move Index but it seems pretty interest...
by checkyourmath
Sun Mar 07, 2021 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio's All Weather Portfolio is NOT Working in this 2021 Market Correction
Replies: 40
Views: 5262

Re: Ray Dalio's All Weather Portfolio is NOT Working in this 2021 Market Correction

Tough call Dalio, Cramer, Orman, and Dave Ramsayer are always fighting for that spot of irrelevance. The cash is trash king is probably just holding too much cash. Money markets paying 0.01% are amazing. Ray Dalio makes me feel smart and reassures me that 99 percent of wealth is just getting lucky. ...
by checkyourmath
Fri Mar 05, 2021 12:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22918
Views: 3006425

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

InvestorHowie wrote: Thu Mar 04, 2021 11:16 pm
Visitor76 wrote: Thu Mar 04, 2021 8:40 pm Too bad tomorrow isn't Contribution Day for me.
I thought the same! Wish it was payday tomorrow!
Don't worry circuit breaker days will be back soon enough and you can buy the dip!
by checkyourmath
Thu Mar 04, 2021 11:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Let's remember last year's crash
Replies: 58
Views: 5550

Re: Let's remember last year's crash

Are we talking about the stock market or the economy? They aren't the same. I know the US stock market is the world economy. My favorite is the sacred FANGMTA which accounts for 40 percent of the overall market and about 6 percent of the overall employment. I wish I could save this thread. It is go...
by checkyourmath
Thu Mar 04, 2021 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22918
Views: 3006425

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

JPOW now has to deal with bonds, inflation, unemployment, DXY, and interest rates just to keep SPY stable. If any one of those breaks the whole market collapses like a pile of cards hahahahaha. Good luck, have fun, and welcome to a lost decade. No worries we are just like Japan in the 90s. The only...
by checkyourmath
Thu Mar 04, 2021 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22918
Views: 3006425

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Thursday and Friday were fun days last week too. Once the stimulus gets passed things will recover because we will be able to buy more. Just hold on! when is stimulus expected to pass? They are probably doing a little bit of market timing themselves. They probably want the 10 year treasury to be ab...
by checkyourmath
Thu Mar 04, 2021 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22918
Views: 3006425

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Thursday and Friday were fun days last week too. Once the stimulus gets passed things will recover because we will be able to buy more. Just hold on!
by checkyourmath
Thu Mar 04, 2021 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The bond market is a mess and there are no solutions!
Replies: 226
Views: 26822

Re: The bond market is a mess and there are no solutions!

I think on a more positive note BND volume is trending down to around 100 million shares a month. I think the people that truly value BND will hold on to it even as rates climb above 2 percent. Probably because the majority of those holding bnd are planning on holding it beyond the avg duration of ...
by checkyourmath
Wed Mar 03, 2021 9:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The bond market is a mess and there are no solutions!
Replies: 226
Views: 26822

Re: The bond market is a mess and there are no solutions!

I think on a more positive note BND volume is trending down to around 100 million shares a month. I think the people that truly value BND will hold on to it even as rates climb above 2 percent.
by checkyourmath
Wed Mar 03, 2021 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We are NOT in a bubble
Replies: 165
Views: 21537

Re: We are NOT in a bubble

I think the ballast right now is bitcoin. It looks like it isn't correlated to the bond or stock market. What is your definition of ballast? It seems very different from mine. My definition of a ballast is the 10 year treasury at 3 percent. The reason Bitcoin is so relevent is because it is going t...
by checkyourmath
Tue Mar 02, 2021 8:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Personal trainer on Zoom: good idea? And if so how much should I pay?
Replies: 30
Views: 1739

Re: Personal trainer on Zoom: good idea? And if so how much should I pay?

I have begun exercising at home and I was thinking of getting some classes on Zoom from a kind of personal trainer. I've been following one on Twitter and I contacted him.  He says he charges $150 per session (I think for about 20 minutes/half an hour). What do you think, is that reasonable? He is ...
by checkyourmath
Mon Mar 01, 2021 10:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Home vs investing (is this the right time?)
Replies: 12
Views: 1380

Re: Home vs investing (is this the right time?)

OP, When you asked the wrong question, you would never get the right answer! A) The house is not an investment. B) If you can buy a house and lower your current housing expense, why won't you buy the house? C) In order for (B) to be true, you have to be able to buy the house assuming zero or negati...
by checkyourmath
Sat Feb 27, 2021 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can someone explain the logic behind the Buffett Indicator?
Replies: 22
Views: 1848

Re: Can someone explain the logic behind the Buffett Indicator?

The indicator is a mute point when 120 billion is bonds aren't being fairly priced on a monthly basis. What do you mean? How does that variable change this ratio? The Fed's balance distorts the GDP piece of the ratio. As long as the dollar is strong it doesn't matter. Have you looked into GDP growt...
by checkyourmath
Fri Feb 26, 2021 11:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We are NOT in a bubble
Replies: 165
Views: 21537

Re: We are NOT in a bubble

I think the ballast right now is bitcoin. It looks like it isn't correlated to the bond or stock market. What is your definition of ballast? It seems very different from mine. My definition of a ballast is the 10 year treasury at 3 percent. The reason Bitcoin is so relevent is because it is going t...
by checkyourmath
Fri Feb 26, 2021 11:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds in free fall
Replies: 653
Views: 53659

Re: Bonds in free fall

I will also line to mention that the bond market is bigger than the stock market. 40-50 percent percent of the threads on this forum should be about maintaining debt holdings. No one actually cares which is why we get to talk about Bitcoin, GME, refinancing, mortgage forbearance, student loan forbea...
by checkyourmath
Fri Feb 26, 2021 11:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Extra cash flow, paying down mortgage early?
Replies: 12
Views: 1147

Re: Extra cash flow, paying down mortgage early?

You can always make more money with alternative assets. Your mortgage is a guaranteed contact. The S&P 500 pretending like Bitcoin is a real asset is like sayings Mars is habitable. It is all fun and games until you realize that a hot summer is 32 degrees.
by checkyourmath
Fri Feb 26, 2021 10:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds in free fall
Replies: 653
Views: 53659

Re: Bonds in free fall

I thought cash is trash during inflationary times. It is probably a good resource during moments of liquidity where an 800lb gorilla is trying to control everything. Inflation is a risk but it's not the only risk, especially in the short term. Deflation can happen. Many risk market participants are...
by checkyourmath
Fri Feb 26, 2021 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds in free fall
Replies: 653
Views: 53659

Re: Bonds in free fall

000 wrote: Fri Feb 26, 2021 8:51 pm
Northern Flicker wrote: Fri Feb 26, 2021 8:38 pm gold is unpredictable, and can be sensitive to interest rates.
I don't disagree. Cash is the real unloved asset right now.
I thought cash is trash during inflationary times. It is probably a good resource during moments of liquidity where an 800lb gorilla is trying to control everything.
by checkyourmath
Fri Feb 26, 2021 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds in free fall
Replies: 653
Views: 53659

Re: Bonds in free fall

:annoyed I heard something interesting today. The Fed now owns ~25% of TIPS outstanding, up from 8% a year ago. They've bought more TIPS than the Treasury has issued. 800lb gorilla in the room seems to control TIPS. Looks like Fed ownership is much higher than that, unless I'm misreading https://ww...
by checkyourmath
Fri Feb 26, 2021 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can someone explain the logic behind the Buffett Indicator?
Replies: 22
Views: 1848

Re: Can someone explain the logic behind the Buffett Indicator?

The indicator is a mute point when 120 billion is bonds aren't being fairly priced on a monthly basis.
by checkyourmath
Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Were You Around During Dotcom Bubble?
Replies: 266
Views: 20650

Re: Were You Around During Dotcom Bubble?

anoop wrote: Wed Feb 17, 2021 1:24 pm
cableguy wrote: Wed Feb 17, 2021 1:17 pm The biggest difference between then and now...interest rates. 10 Year Yield was probably 5% back then. Today...….1%. There is nowhere to put your money other than stocks......
...and real estate.
....and bonds!
by checkyourmath
Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22918
Views: 3006425

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

so next week we'll dust off the soaring thread, if no bad news over the weekend Honestly, I'll be surprised to see more soaring until the market finishes its beat-down of the Qs. I have a vested interest in their success, but today's closing whimper seems like an ominous sign. 10 year at 2 percent ...
by checkyourmath
Fri Feb 26, 2021 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would you buy permanent debt?
Replies: 42
Views: 2590

Re: Would you buy permanent debt?

Can I buy student loan debt? They are on the hook for the rest of their lives and it is yielding 6 percent. I could retire tomorrow if I was guaranteed 6% on the money I have right now. I don't know why I am getting 0.50% at Ally while a student with no money is having to pay 6% to educate themselv...
by checkyourmath
Fri Feb 26, 2021 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is my bond fund losing or gaining money or neither?
Replies: 4
Views: 736

Re: Is my bond fund losing or gaining money or neither?

I can never seem to wrap my head around Bond Funds (I do understand Individual Bonds, mostly). My Int. Treasury (FUAMX) down -3.04% and Total Bond (FXNAX) down -1.71% total for all time (varying purchase dates). But the 30-day yields are up +0.30% from earlier lows. If I'm getting higher interest p...
by checkyourmath
Fri Feb 26, 2021 10:33 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Paying off Student Loans vs Investing
Replies: 28
Views: 1932

Re: Paying off Student Loans vs Investing

I second that about writing the check to pay off the loans. It is a waste of your time and energy to think about. I only had about 24k in loans when I graduated and paid them off as quickly as possible. Nothing is certain except Interest on student loans/medical bills, taxes, and death! Benny Frankl...
by checkyourmath
Fri Feb 26, 2021 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would you buy permanent debt?
Replies: 42
Views: 2590

Re: Would you buy permanent debt?

Can I buy student loan debt? They are on the hook for the rest of their lives and it is yielding 6 percent. I could retire tomorrow if I was guaranteed 6% on the money I have right now. I don't know why I am getting 0.50% at Ally while a student with no money is having to pay 6% to educate themselve...
by checkyourmath
Fri Feb 26, 2021 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22918
Views: 3006425

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I spent the morning looking at the valuation of several dozen quality stocks I keep an eye on. The drop yesterday didn't begin to touch the overvaluation of any company I'd want to buy right now. And I was looking at companies in terms of their estimated earnings by year end 2021. Stock prices are ...
by checkyourmath
Thu Feb 25, 2021 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22918
Views: 3006425

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Perfect opportunity to buy the March dip. Backup the truck!
by checkyourmath
Thu Feb 25, 2021 8:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Much House Can I Afford?
Replies: 27
Views: 2700

Re: How Much House Can I Afford?

The case schiller looks pretty elevated but then again we had NINJAs last time. This time we only have people investing in Bitcoin with perfect credit scores.
by checkyourmath
Wed Feb 24, 2021 2:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Current Portfolio - Goal of Buying a House in the Near Future
Replies: 34
Views: 2502

Re: Current Portfolio - Goal of Buying a House in the Near Future

- Is the thought/idea that when forbearance extensions end, there may be more supply of homes available? Real estate is very seasonal. It isn't like the moment the extension is finished that the supply constraints will be figured out. We really need a reality check on businesses which will probably ...
by checkyourmath
Wed Feb 24, 2021 2:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2nd home purchase with little down.
Replies: 13
Views: 803

Re: 2nd home purchase with little down.

Everything is a no brainer in the current market. I would wait until the 5 plus percent in mortgage forbearance, which is a massive supply constraint, have figured out how to put 2021 property taxes into forbearance. I think 10 percent gains on leverage is a fantasy but then again I didn't get in on...
by checkyourmath
Wed Feb 24, 2021 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Current Portfolio - Goal of Buying a House in the Near Future
Replies: 34
Views: 2502

Re: Current Portfolio - Goal of Buying a House in the Near Future

I am in the same boat. I have been an engineer for about 15 years and I am still working to save the amount required to buy a house. Ha, us engineers need to stick together! I think the key to this housing market is mortgage forbearance. I think you should put your plans on hold until that gets fig...
by checkyourmath
Tue Feb 23, 2021 10:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Current Portfolio - Goal of Buying a House in the Near Future
Replies: 34
Views: 2502

Re: Current Portfolio - Goal of Buying a House in the Near Future

I am in the same boat. I have been an engineer for about 15 years and I am still working to save the amount required to buy a house. Ha, us engineers need to stick together! I think the key to this housing market is mortgage forbearance. I think you should put your plans on hold until that gets fig...
by checkyourmath
Mon Feb 22, 2021 6:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Current Portfolio - Goal of Buying a House in the Near Future
Replies: 34
Views: 2502

Re: Current Portfolio - Goal of Buying a House in the Near Future

I am in the same boat. I have been an engineer for about 15 years and I am still working to save the amount required to buy a house.
by checkyourmath
Mon Feb 22, 2021 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds in free fall
Replies: 653
Views: 53659

Re: Bonds in free fall

There's no freefall, as the parachute bonds always wear puffs out at some point and they fall gently to it's latest bottom, and then a gentle upwind picks them up again and they reach again for the sky. Up, down, up, down, up...like a rocking boat on the waves of an infinite ocean. I second that 12...
by checkyourmath
Mon Feb 22, 2021 12:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Semi-retirement in 5 years possible?
Replies: 8
Views: 1169

Re: Semi-retirement in 5 years possible?

The Retiree Portfolio Model is a lot more helpful than anything else. I really wonder what the world will look like in 5 years and I do like the lofty goals. If the market continues on a 20 percent per year streak for the next 5 years you will be able to easily retire.
by checkyourmath
Mon Feb 22, 2021 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22918
Views: 3006425

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

10 year and 30 year rates keep going up, like clockwork. 10 year now 1.39% :twisted: Dividend Yield on S&P 500 is 1.49% I'm wondering when the Fed steps in and pushes rates back down. Jay Powell is speaking tomorrow and Wednesday, so there's speculation he'll say something meant to tame the ris...
by checkyourmath
Mon Feb 22, 2021 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is too much saving a zero sum game ?
Replies: 72
Views: 7275

Re: Is too much saving a zero sum game ?

The US is a consumption driven economy. The savings rate percentages that you have seen over last year are an anomaly. Normally most people are broke or living paycheck to paycheck. I think you are confusing wealth inequality to saving income. Income hasn't kept up with housing and equities which ma...
by checkyourmath
Sun Feb 21, 2021 7:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone planning on traveling after vaccine?
Replies: 32
Views: 2388

Re: Anyone planning on traveling after vaccine?

Yes. Aruba in 10 days. Thinking about this also. How are you planning for the tests to go back to the US? A few people will travel but if you look at the TSA numbers the vacation industry is going to be on hold until we figure out the new social norms. We are flying to Charleston in July with no ot...