Search found 374 matches
- Sat Mar 13, 2021 4:29 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: If you hit your # would you retire in this market?
- Replies: 68
- Views: 7687
Re: If you hit your # would you retire in this market?
The level of uncertainty is slightly higher than anything we have seen in maybe four generations. :confused Wow. Really? I look back over the past 80-120 years and see plenty of times with far more uncertainty. I'm 66. Perhaps you are younger? This question would be better in like five years maybe ...
- Fri Mar 12, 2021 10:57 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Does it feel bubbly to you?
- Replies: 214
- Views: 15648
Re: Does it feel bubbly to you?
1 percent gains a day keeps the doctor away. 2021 is going to be a 10 bagger for sure. Zero risk with only upside because interest rates are so low. I don't know why people only buy equities when they could just buy the option which cost less and has way more upside.
- Fri Mar 12, 2021 10:54 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Does it feel bubbly to you?
- Replies: 214
- Views: 15648
Re: Does it feel bubbly to you?
Correct they are just holding a mountain of cash and even more cash through Apple.
- Fri Mar 12, 2021 7:53 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: If you hit your # would you retire in this market?
- Replies: 68
- Views: 7687
Re: If you hit your # would you retire in this market?
Easy answer. No The level of uncertainty is slightly higher than anything we have seen in maybe four generations. If we had universal health care sure everyone would retire but even with 25x under the age of 50 there are too many unknowns. This question would be better in like five years maybe when ...
- Fri Mar 12, 2021 4:03 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Renting for life - a bad idea?
- Replies: 154
- Views: 11012
Re: Renting for life - a bad idea?
It all depends upon the numbers. I do enjoy people buying housing right now. The numbers are absurd in most urban areas. The riding the wave thing is fun if you are lucky, but probably no so fun if the wave turns into a tsunami. The median home purchase price in our neck of the Greater Boston Area ...
- Fri Mar 12, 2021 4:03 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Renting for life - a bad idea?
- Replies: 154
- Views: 11012
Re: Renting for life - a bad idea?
It all depends upon the numbers. I do enjoy people buying housing right now. The numbers are absurd in most urban areas. The riding the wave thing is fun if you are lucky, but probably no so fun if the wave turns into a tsunami. The median home purchase price in our neck of the Greater Boston Area ...
- Fri Mar 12, 2021 1:03 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Are we in a housing bubble?
- Replies: 298
- Views: 36743
Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
No way are we in a housing bubble. Rent forbearance is even more complicated than mortgage forbearance. Housing is about a 60/40 split with 40 percent of the people being renters. As long as the loan appreciates more than the loan interest there is no problem in the housing market, but rent prices h...
- Fri Mar 12, 2021 8:41 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Are we in a housing bubble?
- Replies: 298
- Views: 36743
Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
Check back after June 30th, 2021 or six months after that if they decide to extend it for a third time. Mortgage forbearance eventually will end. A couple million homes being held out of the supply is a big deal. The honeymoon stage is over. We were all generally poor before this and will be after t...
- Thu Mar 11, 2021 9:16 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Renting for life - a bad idea?
- Replies: 154
- Views: 11012
Re: Renting for life - a bad idea?
It all depends upon the numbers. I do enjoy people buying housing right now. The numbers are absurd in most urban areas. The riding the wave thing is fun if you are lucky, but probably no so fun if the wave turns into a tsunami. The median home purchase price in our neck of the Greater Boston Area ...
- Tue Mar 09, 2021 8:59 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: children roth ira
- Replies: 29
- Views: 2092
Re: children roth ira
there are several posts about this, mostly of the "can I pay my kids to do chores so I can fund their Roth?" variety. so far you've done three things wrong: 1. accepted a video on the internet about investing as gospel 2. not questioned your accountant despite him having given you bad adv...
- Tue Mar 09, 2021 10:29 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Renting for life - a bad idea?
- Replies: 154
- Views: 11012
Re: Renting for life - a bad idea?
It all depends upon the numbers. I do enjoy people buying housing right now. The numbers are absurd in most urban areas. The riding the wave thing is fun if you are lucky, but probably no so fun if the wave turns into a tsunami.
- Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:01 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Timing the bond market
- Replies: 35
- Views: 2635
Re: Timing the bond market
How long until that big company stops buying bonds? I don't want to compete with 80 billion a month. I am fine with waiting until price discovery comes back until then let's watch the yield climb and the price fall. I don't know if anyone else is following the Move Index but it seems pretty interest...
- Sun Mar 07, 2021 9:28 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Ray Dalio's All Weather Portfolio is NOT Working in this 2021 Market Correction
- Replies: 40
- Views: 5262
Re: Ray Dalio's All Weather Portfolio is NOT Working in this 2021 Market Correction
Tough call Dalio, Cramer, Orman, and Dave Ramsayer are always fighting for that spot of irrelevance. The cash is trash king is probably just holding too much cash. Money markets paying 0.01% are amazing. Ray Dalio makes me feel smart and reassures me that 99 percent of wealth is just getting lucky. ...
- Fri Mar 05, 2021 12:03 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
- Replies: 22918
- Views: 3006425
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Don't worry circuit breaker days will be back soon enough and you can buy the dip!
- Thu Mar 04, 2021 11:23 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Let's remember last year's crash
- Replies: 58
- Views: 5550
Re: Let's remember last year's crash
Are we talking about the stock market or the economy? They aren't the same. I know the US stock market is the world economy. My favorite is the sacred FANGMTA which accounts for 40 percent of the overall market and about 6 percent of the overall employment. I wish I could save this thread. It is go...
- Thu Mar 04, 2021 8:46 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
- Replies: 22918
- Views: 3006425
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
JPOW now has to deal with bonds, inflation, unemployment, DXY, and interest rates just to keep SPY stable. If any one of those breaks the whole market collapses like a pile of cards hahahahaha. Good luck, have fun, and welcome to a lost decade. No worries we are just like Japan in the 90s. The only...
- Thu Mar 04, 2021 4:10 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
- Replies: 22918
- Views: 3006425
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Thursday and Friday were fun days last week too. Once the stimulus gets passed things will recover because we will be able to buy more. Just hold on! when is stimulus expected to pass? They are probably doing a little bit of market timing themselves. They probably want the 10 year treasury to be ab...
- Thu Mar 04, 2021 3:36 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
- Replies: 22918
- Views: 3006425
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Thursday and Friday were fun days last week too. Once the stimulus gets passed things will recover because we will be able to buy more. Just hold on!
- Thu Mar 04, 2021 9:21 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: The bond market is a mess and there are no solutions!
- Replies: 226
- Views: 26822
Re: The bond market is a mess and there are no solutions!
I think on a more positive note BND volume is trending down to around 100 million shares a month. I think the people that truly value BND will hold on to it even as rates climb above 2 percent. Probably because the majority of those holding bnd are planning on holding it beyond the avg duration of ...
- Wed Mar 03, 2021 9:48 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: The bond market is a mess and there are no solutions!
- Replies: 226
- Views: 26822
Re: The bond market is a mess and there are no solutions!
I think on a more positive note BND volume is trending down to around 100 million shares a month. I think the people that truly value BND will hold on to it even as rates climb above 2 percent.
- Wed Mar 03, 2021 5:47 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: We are NOT in a bubble
- Replies: 165
- Views: 21537
Re: We are NOT in a bubble
I think the ballast right now is bitcoin. It looks like it isn't correlated to the bond or stock market. What is your definition of ballast? It seems very different from mine. My definition of a ballast is the 10 year treasury at 3 percent. The reason Bitcoin is so relevent is because it is going t...
- Tue Mar 02, 2021 8:00 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Personal trainer on Zoom: good idea? And if so how much should I pay?
- Replies: 30
- Views: 1739
Re: Personal trainer on Zoom: good idea? And if so how much should I pay?
I have begun exercising at home and I was thinking of getting some classes on Zoom from a kind of personal trainer. I've been following one on Twitter and I contacted him. He says he charges $150 per session (I think for about 20 minutes/half an hour). What do you think, is that reasonable? He is ...
- Mon Mar 01, 2021 10:44 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Home vs investing (is this the right time?)
- Replies: 12
- Views: 1380
Re: Home vs investing (is this the right time?)
OP, When you asked the wrong question, you would never get the right answer! A) The house is not an investment. B) If you can buy a house and lower your current housing expense, why won't you buy the house? C) In order for (B) to be true, you have to be able to buy the house assuming zero or negati...
- Sat Feb 27, 2021 6:42 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Can someone explain the logic behind the Buffett Indicator?
- Replies: 22
- Views: 1848
Re: Can someone explain the logic behind the Buffett Indicator?
The indicator is a mute point when 120 billion is bonds aren't being fairly priced on a monthly basis. What do you mean? How does that variable change this ratio? The Fed's balance distorts the GDP piece of the ratio. As long as the dollar is strong it doesn't matter. Have you looked into GDP growt...
- Fri Feb 26, 2021 11:28 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: We are NOT in a bubble
- Replies: 165
- Views: 21537
Re: We are NOT in a bubble
I think the ballast right now is bitcoin. It looks like it isn't correlated to the bond or stock market. What is your definition of ballast? It seems very different from mine. My definition of a ballast is the 10 year treasury at 3 percent. The reason Bitcoin is so relevent is because it is going t...
- Fri Feb 26, 2021 11:18 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Bonds in free fall
- Replies: 653
- Views: 53659
Re: Bonds in free fall
I will also line to mention that the bond market is bigger than the stock market. 40-50 percent percent of the threads on this forum should be about maintaining debt holdings. No one actually cares which is why we get to talk about Bitcoin, GME, refinancing, mortgage forbearance, student loan forbea...
- Fri Feb 26, 2021 11:10 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Extra cash flow, paying down mortgage early?
- Replies: 12
- Views: 1147
Re: Extra cash flow, paying down mortgage early?
You can always make more money with alternative assets. Your mortgage is a guaranteed contact. The S&P 500 pretending like Bitcoin is a real asset is like sayings Mars is habitable. It is all fun and games until you realize that a hot summer is 32 degrees.
- Fri Feb 26, 2021 10:24 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Bonds in free fall
- Replies: 653
- Views: 53659
Re: Bonds in free fall
I thought cash is trash during inflationary times. It is probably a good resource during moments of liquidity where an 800lb gorilla is trying to control everything. Inflation is a risk but it's not the only risk, especially in the short term. Deflation can happen. Many risk market participants are...
- Fri Feb 26, 2021 9:38 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Bonds in free fall
- Replies: 653
- Views: 53659
Re: Bonds in free fall
I thought cash is trash during inflationary times. It is probably a good resource during moments of liquidity where an 800lb gorilla is trying to control everything.000 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 26, 2021 8:51 pmI don't disagree. Cash is the real unloved asset right now.Northern Flicker wrote: ↑Fri Feb 26, 2021 8:38 pm gold is unpredictable, and can be sensitive to interest rates.
- Fri Feb 26, 2021 9:36 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Bonds in free fall
- Replies: 653
- Views: 53659
Re: Bonds in free fall
:annoyed I heard something interesting today. The Fed now owns ~25% of TIPS outstanding, up from 8% a year ago. They've bought more TIPS than the Treasury has issued. 800lb gorilla in the room seems to control TIPS. Looks like Fed ownership is much higher than that, unless I'm misreading https://ww...
- Fri Feb 26, 2021 8:59 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Can someone explain the logic behind the Buffett Indicator?
- Replies: 22
- Views: 1848
Re: Can someone explain the logic behind the Buffett Indicator?
The indicator is a mute point when 120 billion is bonds aren't being fairly priced on a monthly basis.
- Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:25 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Were You Around During Dotcom Bubble?
- Replies: 266
- Views: 20650
- Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:24 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
- Replies: 22918
- Views: 3006425
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
so next week we'll dust off the soaring thread, if no bad news over the weekend Honestly, I'll be surprised to see more soaring until the market finishes its beat-down of the Qs. I have a vested interest in their success, but today's closing whimper seems like an ominous sign. 10 year at 2 percent ...
- Fri Feb 26, 2021 12:45 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Would you buy permanent debt?
- Replies: 42
- Views: 2590
Re: Would you buy permanent debt?
Can I buy student loan debt? They are on the hook for the rest of their lives and it is yielding 6 percent. I could retire tomorrow if I was guaranteed 6% on the money I have right now. I don't know why I am getting 0.50% at Ally while a student with no money is having to pay 6% to educate themselv...
- Fri Feb 26, 2021 10:43 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Is my bond fund losing or gaining money or neither?
- Replies: 4
- Views: 736
Re: Is my bond fund losing or gaining money or neither?
I can never seem to wrap my head around Bond Funds (I do understand Individual Bonds, mostly). My Int. Treasury (FUAMX) down -3.04% and Total Bond (FXNAX) down -1.71% total for all time (varying purchase dates). But the 30-day yields are up +0.30% from earlier lows. If I'm getting higher interest p...
- Fri Feb 26, 2021 10:33 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Paying off Student Loans vs Investing
- Replies: 28
- Views: 1932
Re: Paying off Student Loans vs Investing
I second that about writing the check to pay off the loans. It is a waste of your time and energy to think about. I only had about 24k in loans when I graduated and paid them off as quickly as possible. Nothing is certain except Interest on student loans/medical bills, taxes, and death! Benny Frankl...
- Fri Feb 26, 2021 10:26 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Would you buy permanent debt?
- Replies: 42
- Views: 2590
Re: Would you buy permanent debt?
Can I buy student loan debt? They are on the hook for the rest of their lives and it is yielding 6 percent. I could retire tomorrow if I was guaranteed 6% on the money I have right now. I don't know why I am getting 0.50% at Ally while a student with no money is having to pay 6% to educate themselve...
- Fri Feb 26, 2021 10:22 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
- Replies: 22918
- Views: 3006425
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I spent the morning looking at the valuation of several dozen quality stocks I keep an eye on. The drop yesterday didn't begin to touch the overvaluation of any company I'd want to buy right now. And I was looking at companies in terms of their estimated earnings by year end 2021. Stock prices are ...
- Thu Feb 25, 2021 8:44 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
- Replies: 22918
- Views: 3006425
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Perfect opportunity to buy the March dip. Backup the truck!
- Thu Feb 25, 2021 8:43 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: How Much House Can I Afford?
- Replies: 27
- Views: 2700
Re: How Much House Can I Afford?
The case schiller looks pretty elevated but then again we had NINJAs last time. This time we only have people investing in Bitcoin with perfect credit scores.
- Wed Feb 24, 2021 2:43 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Current Portfolio - Goal of Buying a House in the Near Future
- Replies: 34
- Views: 2502
Re: Current Portfolio - Goal of Buying a House in the Near Future
- Is the thought/idea that when forbearance extensions end, there may be more supply of homes available? Real estate is very seasonal. It isn't like the moment the extension is finished that the supply constraints will be figured out. We really need a reality check on businesses which will probably ...
- Wed Feb 24, 2021 2:09 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: 2nd home purchase with little down.
- Replies: 13
- Views: 803
Re: 2nd home purchase with little down.
Everything is a no brainer in the current market. I would wait until the 5 plus percent in mortgage forbearance, which is a massive supply constraint, have figured out how to put 2021 property taxes into forbearance. I think 10 percent gains on leverage is a fantasy but then again I didn't get in on...
- Wed Feb 24, 2021 11:24 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Current Portfolio - Goal of Buying a House in the Near Future
- Replies: 34
- Views: 2502
Re: Current Portfolio - Goal of Buying a House in the Near Future
I am in the same boat. I have been an engineer for about 15 years and I am still working to save the amount required to buy a house. Ha, us engineers need to stick together! I think the key to this housing market is mortgage forbearance. I think you should put your plans on hold until that gets fig...
- Tue Feb 23, 2021 10:26 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Current Portfolio - Goal of Buying a House in the Near Future
- Replies: 34
- Views: 2502
Re: Current Portfolio - Goal of Buying a House in the Near Future
I am in the same boat. I have been an engineer for about 15 years and I am still working to save the amount required to buy a house. Ha, us engineers need to stick together! I think the key to this housing market is mortgage forbearance. I think you should put your plans on hold until that gets fig...
- Mon Feb 22, 2021 6:10 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Current Portfolio - Goal of Buying a House in the Near Future
- Replies: 34
- Views: 2502
Re: Current Portfolio - Goal of Buying a House in the Near Future
I am in the same boat. I have been an engineer for about 15 years and I am still working to save the amount required to buy a house.
- Mon Feb 22, 2021 3:30 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Bonds in free fall
- Replies: 653
- Views: 53659
Re: Bonds in free fall
There's no freefall, as the parachute bonds always wear puffs out at some point and they fall gently to it's latest bottom, and then a gentle upwind picks them up again and they reach again for the sky. Up, down, up, down, up...like a rocking boat on the waves of an infinite ocean. I second that 12...
- Mon Feb 22, 2021 12:10 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Semi-retirement in 5 years possible?
- Replies: 8
- Views: 1169
Re: Semi-retirement in 5 years possible?
The Retiree Portfolio Model is a lot more helpful than anything else. I really wonder what the world will look like in 5 years and I do like the lofty goals. If the market continues on a 20 percent per year streak for the next 5 years you will be able to easily retire.
- Mon Feb 22, 2021 12:04 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
- Replies: 22918
- Views: 3006425
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
10 year and 30 year rates keep going up, like clockwork. 10 year now 1.39% :twisted: Dividend Yield on S&P 500 is 1.49% I'm wondering when the Fed steps in and pushes rates back down. Jay Powell is speaking tomorrow and Wednesday, so there's speculation he'll say something meant to tame the ris...
- Mon Feb 22, 2021 9:31 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Is too much saving a zero sum game ?
- Replies: 72
- Views: 7275
Re: Is too much saving a zero sum game ?
The US is a consumption driven economy. The savings rate percentages that you have seen over last year are an anomaly. Normally most people are broke or living paycheck to paycheck. I think you are confusing wealth inequality to saving income. Income hasn't kept up with housing and equities which ma...
- Sun Feb 21, 2021 7:44 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Anyone planning on traveling after vaccine?
- Replies: 32
- Views: 2388
Re: Anyone planning on traveling after vaccine?
Yes. Aruba in 10 days. Thinking about this also. How are you planning for the tests to go back to the US? A few people will travel but if you look at the TSA numbers the vacation industry is going to be on hold until we figure out the new social norms. We are flying to Charleston in July with no ot...