Search found 3091 matches

by Marseille07
Mon Apr 19, 2021 2:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do you calculate money needed in retirement when still 15+ years away?
Replies: 28
Views: 2537

Re: How do you calculate money needed in retirement when still 15+ years away?

You can't calculate anything 15+ years away. You need to keep updating expenses as you approach retirement and assess if you have enough.
by Marseille07
Mon Apr 19, 2021 1:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: People with Covid-19 vaccination record cards: where are you keeping them?
Replies: 179
Views: 15579

Re: People with Covid-19 vaccination record cards: where are you keeping them?

I'll scan it after my 2nd dose, then keep the original alongside my unused credit card and what not.
by Marseille07
Mon Apr 19, 2021 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall
Replies: 156
Views: 13625

Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

? not sure why you're jumping on this particular line, I was just explaining how extreme it was for FM to become 90% of your NW. Sorry, I did not mean to appear confrontational. It just seems to me that you control all the levers here. It's not like you are operating within some externally imposed ...
by Marseille07
Mon Apr 19, 2021 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall
Replies: 156
Views: 13625

Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

In the 1M & 50K FM example, in order for FM to get to 90% we're talking about 9M out of 10M Day 1: 1M BH & 50K FM Days 1 through X: agonize over how much of FM to sell. Day X (which may never come): 1M BH & 9M FM, switch to 10M BH You are building your own prison. Which, of course, is p...
by Marseille07
Mon Apr 19, 2021 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall
Replies: 156
Views: 13625

Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

I guess my point is - saying "I just wrote off the seed money, so I never need to rebalance out" may be true for now, but at some amount of growth you should reconsider that - if 1% turns into 90%, you should probably sell a little. Realistically though, if funny money trades starting at ...
by Marseille07
Mon Apr 19, 2021 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall
Replies: 156
Views: 13625

Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

I don't know how, behaviorally, you can live in both worlds, unless you have two totally separate portfolios that follow completely different rules. Yes, I have two totally separate portfolios that follow completely different rules. As I said, I measure the size of them but I don't rebalance betwee...
by Marseille07
Mon Apr 19, 2021 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall
Replies: 156
Views: 13625

Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

I don't know how, behaviorally, you can live in both worlds, unless you have two totally separate portfolios that follow completely different rules. Yes, I have two totally separate portfolios that follow completely different rules. As I said, I measure the size of them but I don't rebalance betwee...
by Marseille07
Mon Apr 19, 2021 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall
Replies: 156
Views: 13625

Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

I guess my point is - saying "I just wrote off the seed money, so I never need to rebalance out" may be true for now, but at some amount of growth you should reconsider that - if 1% turns into 90%, you should probably sell a little. Realistically though, if funny money trades starting at ...
by Marseille07
Mon Apr 19, 2021 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall
Replies: 156
Views: 13625

Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

This conversation used to go like this: "Oh, if only I had put $5k in APPL back in 2004, I'd be worth $25M today!" And I would always think: "No. I wouldn't. Because I would have sold half when it got to 5% of my portfolio" This is why I don't think funny money trades should be ...
by Marseille07
Mon Apr 19, 2021 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall
Replies: 156
Views: 13625

Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

This conversation used to go like this: "Oh, if only I had put $5k in APPL back in 2004, I'd be worth $25M today!" And I would always think: "No. I wouldn't. Because I would have sold half when it got to 5% of my portfolio" This is why I don't think funny money trades should be ...
by Marseille07
Mon Apr 19, 2021 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall
Replies: 156
Views: 13625

Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

This conversation used to go like this: "Oh, if only I had put $5k in APPL back in 2004, I'd be worth $25M today!" And I would always think: "No. I wouldn't. Because I would have sold half when it got to 5% of my portfolio" This is why I don't think funny money trades should be ...
by Marseille07
Mon Apr 19, 2021 10:00 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Case for holding vested stock options?
Replies: 23
Views: 1294

Re: Case for holding vested stock options?

OP's situation as described is very deep ITM ($40 strike and $135 FMV). Besides, the "difference" we're talking about is "holding options until close to the expiration date" vs exercising today and holding the underlying until close to the expiration date. Personally, I don't se...
by Marseille07
Mon Apr 19, 2021 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall
Replies: 156
Views: 13625

Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

There are certain types of assets I don't reflect in my portfolio calculations. Not because I can't calculate their worth but because I am making the conscious decision not to count on them as part of my plan. That is likely how I would approach any investment in crypto. Personally I include the si...
by Marseille07
Mon Apr 19, 2021 9:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Case for holding vested stock options?
Replies: 23
Views: 1294

Re: Case for holding vested stock options?

It's really up to you. I usually like to do a trailing stop, so I can ride the upside while capping the downside. But, given this is Bogleheads, majority of advice you receive would be to sell immediately and invest into VT or what have you. Actually no, the standard Boglehead advice on employee op...
by Marseille07
Sun Apr 18, 2021 11:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall
Replies: 156
Views: 13625

Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

I thought the whole point of "funny money" is to let it grow. If you keep on rebalancing out, the money never grows no matter how well you trade. The point of having an AA and rebalancing rules is to keep the risk in proportion. Thinking of funny money in terms of AA doesn't work very wel...
by Marseille07
Sun Apr 18, 2021 10:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall
Replies: 156
Views: 13625

Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Not huge. I’ve slowly upped my % investment portfolio from a 1% to 5% to 10% and now 20%. A lot of that is just due to growth and that I don’t see a reason to rebalance down from something that I have a lot of confidence in. But I’m at closer to 15% now so I would have looked to add another 5%. But...
by Marseille07
Sun Apr 18, 2021 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall
Replies: 156
Views: 13625

Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Not huge. I’ve slowly upped my % investment portfolio from a 1% to 5% to 10% and now 20%. A lot of that is just due to growth and that I don’t see a reason to rebalance down from something that I have a lot of confidence in. But I’m at closer to 15% now so I would have looked to add another 5%. But...
by Marseille07
Sun Apr 18, 2021 10:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Did you move for better weather? Did you regret it?
Replies: 188
Views: 19119

Re: Did you move for better weather? Did you regret it?

So we moved from Southern California to Seattle and then back again four years later. Neither move was about the weather, there was a lot going on. But I’m sure enjoy being back where the sun shines. More importantly though, where my friends and family are. An elderly neighbor of mine moved to Seat...
by Marseille07
Sun Apr 18, 2021 10:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Case for holding vested stock options?
Replies: 23
Views: 1294

Re: Case for holding vested stock options?

It's really up to you. I usually like to do a trailing stop, so I can ride the upside while capping the downside. But, given this is Bogleheads, majority of advice you receive would be to sell immediately and invest into VT or what have you. Actually no, the standard Boglehead advice on employee op...
by Marseille07
Sun Apr 18, 2021 9:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Case for holding vested stock options?
Replies: 23
Views: 1294

Re: Case for holding vested stock options?

It's really up to you. I usually like to do a trailing stop, so I can ride the upside while capping the downside.

But, given this is Bogleheads, majority of advice you receive would be to sell immediately and invest into VT or what have you.
by Marseille07
Sun Apr 18, 2021 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Maybe a stupid question but why invest in bonds instead of paying down mortgage?
Replies: 47
Views: 3384

Re: Maybe a stupid question but why invest in bonds instead of paying down mortgage?

What bond allocation would be appropriate for someone 1 year away from retirement? How about 3 years or 5 years? The year is 1999, you have 2 years of work left to go, and you’re 100% stocks. What a disaster that would have been. Except that in this scenario, if you were 60/40 during the 90s then y...
by Marseille07
Sun Apr 18, 2021 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 8802
Views: 856267

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

So yes to my question (arrogant). Please disregard statistics too then, since many technical studies have a statistical basis. Indexing can blow up pretty bad too - we saw it in 2008, 2018, and 2020. Are people who follow indexing naive too? There is no point arguing with naysayers. If your TA unde...
by Marseille07
Sun Apr 18, 2021 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Maybe a stupid question but why invest in bonds instead of paying down mortgage?
Replies: 47
Views: 3384

Re: Maybe a stupid question but why invest in bonds instead of paying down mortgage?

If you are fully retired, then it makes sense to keep that bond allocation. What bond allocation would be appropriate for someone 1 year away from retirement? How about 3 years or 5 years? The year is 1999, you have 2 years of work left to go, and you’re 100% stocks. What a disaster that would have...
by Marseille07
Sun Apr 18, 2021 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22942
Views: 3009680

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

watchnerd wrote: Sun Apr 18, 2021 11:47 am
Marseille07 wrote: Sun Apr 18, 2021 11:42 am
If people sell equities because BTC dropped by 15%, I'll gladly buy their shares on the cheap.
You have to wash off the crypto smell on those used shares, though.
Should be Mr. Clean, right out of a laundromat: https://twitter.com/fxhedgers/status/13 ... 7144730626
by Marseille07
Sun Apr 18, 2021 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22942
Views: 3009680

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

watchnerd wrote: Sun Apr 18, 2021 11:40 am
fanmail wrote: Sun Apr 18, 2021 10:43 am Could just be a risk off signal in general.
Could be a risk off signal.

We'll see what Treasuries and gold do.
If people sell equities because BTC dropped by 15%, I'll gladly buy their shares on the cheap.
by Marseille07
Sun Apr 18, 2021 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Maybe a stupid question but why invest in bonds instead of paying down mortgage?
Replies: 47
Views: 3384

Re: Maybe a stupid question but why invest in bonds instead of paying down mortgage?

Unless you are fully retired, why bother having a bond allocation? Treasury rates yield much lower than your mortgage rate. Nobody has a mortgage rate lower than 1.6%. Therefore shouldn’t your bond allocation be used to pay down your mortgage as you will achieve a higher “return” this way? Plus the...
by Marseille07
Sun Apr 18, 2021 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22942
Views: 3009680

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

watchnerd wrote: Sun Apr 18, 2021 10:13 am
Marseille07 wrote: Sun Apr 18, 2021 9:30 am

Why do you think BTC dropping 15% would shake the S&P500 by 1-2% :confused I am not seeing a connection.
TSLA?
I guess TSLA would be a non-zero contributing factor. Iiuc they aren't even 1% of S&P500, let alone their BTC holdings going down by 15%.
by Marseille07
Sun Apr 18, 2021 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22942
Views: 3009680

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

fanmail wrote: Sun Apr 18, 2021 9:18 am Haven’t read the story yet, but wonder if the crypto money laundering issue will hit stocks at all tonight. If btc drops 15%, is stocks might drop 1-2% or so potentially.
Why do you think BTC dropping 15% would shake the S&P500 by 1-2% :confused I am not seeing a connection.
by Marseille07
Sun Apr 18, 2021 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall
Replies: 156
Views: 13625

Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

I was looking for this thread yesterday when I heard BTC crashed from 63K to 55K.
by Marseille07
Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 8802
Views: 856267

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

So yes to my question (arrogant). Please disregard statistics too then, since many technical studies have a statistical basis. Indexing can blow up pretty bad too - we saw it in 2008, 2018, and 2020. Are people who follow indexing naive too? There is no point arguing with naysayers. If your TA unde...
by Marseille07
Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Temp change in remote location - tell employer?
Replies: 35
Views: 2850

Re: Temp change in remote location - tell employer?

I didn't say anything at all... maybe I should have, but I felt it would cause more harm than good and show a lack of trust. I am glad he told me because indeed if I found out he had been there, I probably would have raised the issue with his company. I think there's a bit of line between just work...
by Marseille07
Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Temp change in remote location - tell employer?
Replies: 35
Views: 2850

Re: Temp change in remote location - tell employer?

I'm asking this for feedback on what is the norm in other companies.. a coworker of mine went to Europe to see his relatives and stated he would work from there, they had to debate if they were going to allow it or not, the finally did but my manager said she made an exception because he was a good...
by Marseille07
Sat Apr 17, 2021 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ideal Bond allocation by age
Replies: 41
Views: 3254

Re: Ideal Bond allocation by age

It's a personal decision. Some people do 120 - age in stocks, some people don't hold any, some people do 50/50.
by Marseille07
Sat Apr 17, 2021 3:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to locate a photograph on the internet?
Replies: 17
Views: 1716

Re: How to locate a photograph on the internet?

What about instagram? Unfortunately It's difficult to help you since we don't know which photo you're talking about.
by Marseille07
Sat Apr 17, 2021 2:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Who can truly afford to buy a house in this market?
Replies: 26
Views: 1762

Re: Who can truly afford to buy a house in this market?

You might be able to afford it if you aren’t saving for retirement and have no other expenses. That’s what I’m getting at. I think buying a 500k house at 150k a year income is insane. You are married to your mortgage. Edit: I’m taking into account taxes, saving 20+ % of gross for retirement and the...
by Marseille07
Sat Apr 17, 2021 11:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How do you deal with timing regrets?
Replies: 79
Views: 7368

Re: How do you deal with timing regrets?

By not dwelling on the past events you can do nothing about. At the end of the day we need to dust ourselves off and make money going forward. Not much point thinking woulda coulda shoulda.
by Marseille07
Sat Apr 17, 2021 11:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: withdrawal strategy after market decline
Replies: 29
Views: 2127

Re: withdrawal strategy after market decline

The issue I am trying to explore is not necessarily how much money could be withdrawn but rather what would you do given the hypothetical case, how much money would you withdraw, how much would you cut back, when would you be comfortable increasing your spending again. But you said 3% WR so wouldn'...
by Marseille07
Sat Apr 17, 2021 11:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ally suddently asking to input new password
Replies: 3
Views: 349

Re: Ally suddently asking to input new password

I saw this about a week ago and changed my password accordingly. No email from them.

There's no malicious attempt from them, but it's possible they got hacked and secretly asking those who were impacted.
by Marseille07
Sat Apr 17, 2021 10:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: withdrawal strategy after market decline
Replies: 29
Views: 2127

Re: withdrawal strategy after market decline

Just withdraw in a way to keep the same AA, or nudge toward it. This means you automatically withdraw more from bonds after a crash, which is what you want.
by Marseille07
Sat Apr 17, 2021 12:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2017 tax records.. Destroy?
Replies: 20
Views: 2119

Re: 2017 tax records.. Destroy?

gwe67 wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 5:28 pm Why not just scan it all? Doesn't take up much space....

You can't un-shred documents.
This is what I do. I bought ScanSnap and I've been scanning documents as well as books the last 5 months. I'm wrapping up this month. The best $400 I've ever spent.
by Marseille07
Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How do you deal with timing regrets?
Replies: 79
Views: 7368

Re: How do you deal with timing regrets?

Packy McCormick just had a great one on his “Not Boring” podcast. Excerpt: “On May 16, 2013, when Coinbase was less than a year old, I set up an account and bought my first bitcoin. I forget why, but.... I bought 10 BTC on May 16th, another 15 on June 14th, and another 13 on July 12th. That Septemb...
by Marseille07
Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2017 tax records.. Destroy?
Replies: 20
Views: 2119

Re: 2017 tax records.. Destroy?

I thought e-copies would suffice. I already got rid of paper copies, not just 2017 but even more recent ones.
by Marseille07
Fri Apr 16, 2021 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There’s a single New Jersey deli doing $35,000 in sales valued at $100 million in the stock market
Replies: 68
Views: 7497

Re: There’s a single New Jersey deli doing $35,000 in sales valued at $100 million in the stock market

Stuff like this happens all the time, even more famous example: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NKLA?p=NKLA 25B val at one point, on 95K of annual revenue. I hate to say it but those who invested deserved to lose money on this. "Those who invested" is everyone who index invests, which is ...
by Marseille07
Thu Apr 15, 2021 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There’s a single New Jersey deli doing $35,000 in sales valued at $100 million in the stock market
Replies: 68
Views: 7497

Re: There’s a single New Jersey deli doing $35,000 in sales valued at $100 million in the stock market

Stuff like this happens all the time, even more famous example: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NKLA?p=NKLA

25B val at one point, on 95K of annual revenue. I hate to say it but those who invested deserved to lose money on this.
by Marseille07
Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14657
Views: 1126842

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

You mean just annualize today's gain? 1.0097^252 = 11.4 or 11,400%. :beer Generally you subtract 1 from that. But that won't be as a big of a number :P I'm a party pooper. Also, 10.4 is 1040%. Correct, 1,040%. I'll still take it, party pooper! Yeah, 1040% is alright but we want to time the market t...
by Marseille07
Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14657
Views: 1126842

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

jarjarM wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:26 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:22 pm
jarjarM wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:20 pm
Vtsax100 wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:52 pm Can someone post the annualized gain for today?
You mean just annualize today's gain? 1.0097^252 = 11.4 or 11,400%. :beer
Generally you subtract 1 from that.
But that won't be as a big of a number :P
I'm a party pooper. Also, 10.4 is 1040%.
by Marseille07
Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14657
Views: 1126842

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

jarjarM wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:20 pm
Vtsax100 wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:52 pm Can someone post the annualized gain for today?
You mean just annualize today's gain? 1.0097^252 = 11.4 or 11,400%. :beer
Generally you subtract 1 from that.
by Marseille07
Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14657
Views: 1126842

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Stinky wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:13 pm
lostdog wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 1:36 pm Heading to the gym. We'll see if we have a melt up coming.
Are you at the gym today?

If not, please go now. We need a melt up!
+0.94% isn't enough? :shock: