Search found 429 matches

by BogleFan510
Thu Apr 15, 2021 9:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will Inflation pay off my home?
Replies: 48
Views: 4569

Re: Will Inflation pay off my home?

Predicting inflation years out is a very difficult task and I would look skeptically at anyone who claims to know for certain. We owned a home for almost 20 years, where each consecutive year brokers were claiming rates would rise so you need to lock in a fixed rate. We didnt and saved thousands of ...
by BogleFan510
Mon Apr 12, 2021 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this the single worst time to be a passive investor
Replies: 73
Views: 9237

Re: Is this the single worst time to be a passive investor

I will switch horses when the data shows that horse is faster over the length of the race, not when some punter offers a tip. The inflation noise is just that, noise. We will see a bit when post covid euphoria causes a spending rise, but it will be brief. The fundamentals are still deflationary, if ...
by BogleFan510
Mon Apr 12, 2021 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ross Gerber (Wealth Management) claims index funds won’t have high enough returns to fund retirement
Replies: 27
Views: 1936

Re: Ross Gerber (Wealth Management) claims index funds won’t have high enough returns to fund retirement

Over shared so I removed it. Started buying stocks when I was 13 yrs old. Many winners and losers. Bogleheads wiki is the best retail investor advice. He gives some good advice, like dont look at you portfolio frequently. I didn't mean to put you on the spot. Anyway, I wish I had the gumption to in...
by BogleFan510
Mon Apr 12, 2021 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ross Gerber (Wealth Management) claims index funds won’t have high enough returns to fund retirement
Replies: 27
Views: 1936

Re: Ross Gerber (Wealth Management) claims index funds won’t have high enough returns to fund retirement

Over shared so I removed it. Started buying stocks when I was 13 yrs old. Many winners and losers. Bogleheads wiki is the best retail investor advice. Actually watching it now and through 30 minutes he actually gives some good advice, like dont look at you portfolio too frequently. Buy and hold long...
by BogleFan510
Mon Apr 12, 2021 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ross Gerber (Wealth Management) claims index funds won’t have high enough returns to fund retirement
Replies: 27
Views: 1936

Re: Ross Gerber (Wealth Management) claims index funds won’t have high enough returns to fund retirement

Watched video. Not horrible dialog actually, but wouldnt invest with him.

Likes tech, energy focused indexes.
by BogleFan510
Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSLA gamed the system - Could Index Funds Be ‘Worse Than Marxism’?
Replies: 108
Views: 11416

Re: TSLA gamed the system - Could Index Funds Be ‘Worse Than Marxism’?

The indexes have to sell when dilution lowers the price, so these are offsetting factors in both directions. A lower price means sell, more shares means buy. The equations cancel. Indexes have to sell when the share price lowers? Since when? The whole point of market cap weighting is that an index ...
by BogleFan510
Thu Apr 08, 2021 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSLA gamed the system - Could Index Funds Be ‘Worse Than Marxism’?
Replies: 108
Views: 11416

Re: TSLA gamed the system - Could Index Funds Be ‘Worse Than Marxism’?

The indexes have to sell when dilution lowers the price, so these are offsetting factors in both directions. A lower price means sell, more shares means buy. The equations cancel. Indexes have to sell when the share price lowers? Since when? The whole point of market cap weighting is that an index ...
by BogleFan510
Thu Apr 08, 2021 11:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why not use cash for RE rentals?
Replies: 29
Views: 2451

Re: Why not use cash for RE rentals?

Excellent investment, but also a job. We are selling our rental property to simplify our lives. Less return for our 'safe' investments is the price we pay. I see it like index funds have returned less than a well run private business for our family as well, but a family business is not a passive inv...
by BogleFan510
Wed Apr 07, 2021 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSLA gamed the system - Could Index Funds Be ‘Worse Than Marxism’?
Replies: 108
Views: 11416

Re: TSLA gamed the system - Could Index Funds Be ‘Worse Than Marxism’?

My point is I agree with @mdchemist that I believe the index fund will need to purchase more shares, unlike what others have said. At least that is how I see it. Yes, but share price doesn't go up (from the undiluted price). It goes down. Yes, but isn't that the point? That some of the downside of ...
by BogleFan510
Wed Apr 07, 2021 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSLA gamed the system - Could Index Funds Be ‘Worse Than Marxism’?
Replies: 108
Views: 11416

Re: TSLA gamed the system - Could Index Funds Be ‘Worse Than Marxism’?

What does the philosphy of the German political theorist Karl Marx have anything to do with this? Have you actually read any of his work? There is a lot of stuff in Marxist ideas, some insightful, some quite dated. That's a direct quote from the linked Atlantic article. Well its a silly clickbait q...
by BogleFan510
Wed Apr 07, 2021 9:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Advice for Parent struggling with recent retirement
Replies: 12
Views: 1797

Re: Advice for Parent struggling with recent retirement

We hiked with a group 3 days a week after retiring. Good healthy, social outlet. When vaccines are widely available in a few months, suggest he check out next door. Nothing like natural beauty with friends. More social (more in groups) and hetter exercise than golf. Ours also has friendly dogs.
by BogleFan510
Tue Apr 06, 2021 11:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSLA gamed the system - Could Index Funds Be ‘Worse Than Marxism’?
Replies: 108
Views: 11416

Re: TSLA gamed the system - Could Index Funds Be ‘Worse Than Marxism’?

What does the philosphy of the German political theorist Karl Marx have anything to do with this? Have you actually read any of his work? There is a lot of stuff in Marxist ideas, some insightful, some quite dated. Also, passive index funds dont buy based on number of shares, they buy based on marke...
by BogleFan510
Sun Apr 04, 2021 6:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a house in Bay Area
Replies: 57
Views: 4548

Re: Buying a house in Bay Area

If it makes you feel any better, we own a home with similar value and we are not selling it. Not selling is in some ways like buying, in that a portion of your wealth is in that non performing asset. Once it is your home, the value is less important than ownership costs. If you can afford the taxes ...
by BogleFan510
Sun Apr 04, 2021 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Incredible stock market gains the past year - probably due for a major pullback
Replies: 89
Views: 10813

Re: Incredible stock market gains the past year - probably due for a major pullback

I look at it like this: we own x% of 'the means of production through an efficient bundle of promises (fund shares) that provide access to 'our share' of corporate earnings. We are no longer accumulating, so what someone wants to charge for it or what someone is willing to pay for that 'share' is no...
by BogleFan510
Sun Apr 04, 2021 8:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best nonstick pans?
Replies: 65
Views: 5169

Re: Best nonstick pans?

Best to treat as disposable. We just buy a 10” Calaphon (sp?) from Target for around $20 and replace it every few years. But I will say that the last one we bought in 2019 shows no scratches or loss of non-stickage yet. +1 T-Fal from Walmart for around $20 or so. After a couple of years it doesn't ...
by BogleFan510
Fri Apr 02, 2021 1:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Rollover IRA at Schwab: Any experience?
Replies: 21
Views: 1336

Re: Rollover IRA at Schwab: Any experience?

Rolled many IRAs and 401k into schwab seamlessly. Easy to convert, set up rollover 401k, if doing conversions. Call customer service for help. Previous posts indicate that traditional IRAs and Rollover IRAs are functionally equivalent (they are retail level pre-tax retirement accounts). After the r...
by BogleFan510
Thu Apr 01, 2021 10:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Rollover IRA at Schwab: Any experience?
Replies: 21
Views: 1336

Re: Rollover IRA at Schwab: Any experience?

Rolled many IRAs and 401k into schwab seamlessly. Easy to convert, set up rollover 401k, if doing conversions.

Call customer service for help.
by BogleFan510
Tue Mar 30, 2021 3:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: People with Covid-19 vaccination record cards: where are you keeping them?
Replies: 163
Views: 13957

Re: People with Covid-19 vaccination record cards: where are you keeping them?

Upon receipt of each dose: 1. Dose administrator has recorded my info in their computers 2. I then entered the date, mft and lot number of each dose in my own health care provider's form in their iPhone App (it was under 'questionaires tab`) 3. Took photograph of card on iPhone for backup 4. Will ne...
by BogleFan510
Thu Mar 25, 2021 8:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What do most people do with a 401K upon retirement if they dont need it?
Replies: 169
Views: 15255

Re: What do most people do with a 401K upon retirement if they dont need it?

My wife and I are both state workers and are "expected" to have a combined pension of $170K a year once retired and plan to live on this amount. We currently max out our 401K's and put a decent amount into VTSAX through Vanguard as well as fund our daughters UTMA account. The 401K's shoul...
by BogleFan510
Tue Mar 23, 2021 6:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What do most people do with a 401K upon retirement if they dont need it?
Replies: 169
Views: 15255

Re: What do most people do with a 401K upon retirement if they dont need it?

Let it ride. And be prepared for RMDs as previously mentioned. You will see mentions of Roth conversions. I view them as gimmicky and unnecessary. The stated gain from Roth conversions, if this information can be squeezed out of the posters, is tiny in the big picture. The juice isn't worth the squ...
by BogleFan510
Mon Mar 22, 2021 9:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What do most people do with a 401K upon retirement if they dont need it?
Replies: 169
Views: 15255

Re: What do most people do with a 401K upon retirement if they dont need it?

Let it ride. And be prepared for RMDs as previously mentioned. You will see mentions of Roth conversions. I view them as gimmicky and unnecessary. The stated gain from Roth conversions, if this information can be squeezed out of the posters, is tiny in the big picture. The juice isn't worth the squ...
by BogleFan510
Sun Mar 21, 2021 4:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is the BEST thing you spent money on?
Replies: 242
Views: 23735

Re: What is the BEST thing you spent money on?

1. Quality, fresh ingredients for food. Keeps me alive and healthy.
2. Taxes. Helps society, keeps me out of jail. Keeps roof over my head, since house paid off.
3. Good hiking shoes.
by BogleFan510
Sat Mar 20, 2021 3:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What are your Lean FIRE, FIRE, and Fat FIRE numbers?
Replies: 307
Views: 25258

Re: What are your Lean FIRE, FIRE, and Fat FIRE numbers?

In 1986 I built a model and set 3 numbers, similar to Op, but those terms didnt exist then. I calculated nominal $2M, $6M, and $10M in the three slots, based on expense assumptions I drew from a WSJ article and research. That said, at the time my inflation assumptions in the projections were higher ...
by BogleFan510
Thu Mar 18, 2021 11:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Costco Citi Visa annual reward; Executive Member annual reward redemptions
Replies: 49
Views: 8618

Re: Costco Citi Visa annual reward; Executive Member annual reward redemptions

At the store one can take the rewards cert to customer service and cash it, at least in California we can. In fact a checker suggested it when I was going to use it to pay, since I would gef extra rewards using card instead. I did this last week.
by BogleFan510
Thu Mar 18, 2021 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule disputed (Again??!!)
Replies: 421
Views: 29673

Re: 4% rule disputed (Again??!!)

I didnt see it posted previously, but isnt the 9-10% bond yield, 95% confidence item a typo. It seems it should be 2.7% ish not the number posted.
by BogleFan510
Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much do you weigh your homes value in your retirement portfolio?
Replies: 106
Views: 8335

Re: How much do you weigh your homes value in your retirement portfolio?

Agree with those who exclude home in their portfolio value. I consider expenses for the home in my income requirements, so the paid off home reduces our income needs.
by BogleFan510
Mon Mar 15, 2021 2:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What did you successfully downshift to?
Replies: 65
Views: 7425

Re: What did you successfully downshift to?

Thanks for starting this thread OP. I wanted to spur a similar discussion. A few of my ideas: 1. sommelier for local restaurant, wine shop, winery etc🍷. (should read Cork Dork ) 2. Park ranger/helper, get outside, fresh air, etc. (always looking for volunteers..great health benefits) 3. Ski instruc...
by BogleFan510
Mon Mar 15, 2021 2:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What did you successfully downshift to?
Replies: 65
Views: 7425

Re: What did you successfully downshift to?

I went for a short stint in public service, which can be quite satisfying, as the people there tend to be less competitive and more warm hearted than those attracted to higher paying work at top tier public corporations, though it had its own frustrations (slower pace, more focus on fairness and equ...
by BogleFan510
Mon Mar 15, 2021 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it feel bubbly to you?
Replies: 214
Views: 15660

Re: Does it feel bubbly to you?

Times like this Klangfool's guidance to have 2/3X in cash is a good rule of thumb, imo. Does that mean 2/3 of holdings in cash? or 2-3 years expenses in cash? Expenses. As a caution, this advice is best for those at the end of their accumulation phase, not young accumulators who should be invested ...
by BogleFan510
Mon Mar 15, 2021 1:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Persian/Oriental rug - value and options?
Replies: 15
Views: 1199

Re: Persian/Oriental rug - value and options?

I believe this market really dropped a lot and values are not what they were. Others may chime in, but perhaps a donation is best.
by BogleFan510
Mon Mar 15, 2021 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it feel bubbly to you?
Replies: 214
Views: 15660

Re: Does it feel bubbly to you?

Times like this Klangfool's guidance to have 2/3X in cash is a good rule of thumb, imo. Does that mean 2/3 of holdings in cash? or 2-3 years expenses in cash? Expenses. As a caution, this advice is best for those at the end of their accumulation phase, not young accumulators who should be invested ...
by BogleFan510
Mon Mar 15, 2021 11:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Resubscribe to The Economist or switch to something else?
Replies: 32
Views: 2481

Re: Resubscribe to The Economist or switch to something else?

I havent found a comparable magazine. Economist is great. Feel WSJ has declined and prefer the FT, personally. Give it a try. Second the digital copy recommendation.
by BogleFan510
Sun Mar 14, 2021 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it feel bubbly to you?
Replies: 214
Views: 15660

Re: Does it feel bubbly to you?

whose risk tolerance is inversely proportional to valuation levels. Excellent point, and an element that typical risk assessment tools don't address. Q: "How much stock risk do you want?" A: "Tell me how cheap they are first." To continue the dialog: Q: How do we know whether th...
by BogleFan510
Sun Mar 14, 2021 12:20 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What! Is! Going! On!
Replies: 23
Views: 3427

Re: What! Is! Going! On!

I believe the shift towards an increasingly information based economy coupled with the marginal cost to replicate information approaching zero, over time, will fundamentally change our notions of economic value from one based on scarcity and trade to a 'star trek' like world where it is considered ...
by BogleFan510
Sun Mar 14, 2021 12:17 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are your travel plans in 2021 and beyond?
Replies: 149
Views: 9599

Re: What are your travel plans in 2021 and beyond?

Booked a trip to Maui for end or May. All travellers will be fully vaccinated, will cook our own food in condo at ocean side. Hope it works out. Flights were crazy cheap, though rental not so cheap.
by BogleFan510
Sun Mar 14, 2021 12:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What! Is! Going! On!
Replies: 23
Views: 3427

Re: What! Is! Going! On!

I believe the shift towards an increasingly information based economy coupled with the marginal cost to replicate information approaching zero, over time, will fundamentally change our notions of economic value from one based on scarcity and trade to a 'star trek' like world where it is considered o...
by BogleFan510
Sat Mar 13, 2021 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 100% Equities a Bad Investment Strategy?
Replies: 131
Views: 9479

Re: Is 100% Equities a Bad Investment Strategy?

I do not feel it is a bad strategy, assuming one is informed of the possible outcomes, and one can live with the results of implementing the strategy. 100% stocks does not have a certain outcome, despite past results, as we do not yet know what the future earnings potential of public companies will ...
by BogleFan510
Sat Mar 13, 2021 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it feel bubbly to you?
Replies: 214
Views: 15660

Re: Does it feel bubbly to you?

I was reading the transcript of Charlie Munger's recent comments at the DJCO meeting and he's suggested that we are probably living through a bubble right now based on things like retail investors in Robinhood bidding up stocks to sky high levels, and Bitcoin and Tesla being at ridiculous valuation...
by BogleFan510
Sat Mar 13, 2021 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it feel bubbly to you?
Replies: 214
Views: 15660

Re: Does it feel bubbly to you?

Stay the course. People said Google was a bubble and would never make money. People said Amazon would fail because people need to see and try on things before they buy. People thought personal computers would only be used by enthusiasts. People estimated the market for cellular phones would be limi...
by BogleFan510
Fri Mar 12, 2021 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Forced Buying" of stocks
Replies: 20
Views: 2540

Re: "Forced Buying" of stocks

It's an interesting discussion, but we really need to get more specific to make any judgements. 1. Is the concern that all stocks are being over priced or it the concern that a subset of stocks in these indexes (say S&P 500) are being purchased an overpriced because of it. 2. Do you believe in ...
by BogleFan510
Fri Mar 12, 2021 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it feel bubbly to you?
Replies: 214
Views: 15660

Re: Does it feel bubbly to you?

Stay the course. People said Google was a bubble and would never make money. People said Amazon would fail because people need to see and try on things before they buy. People thought personal computers would only be used by enthusiasts. People estimated the market for cellular phones would be limit...
by BogleFan510
Thu Mar 11, 2021 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if there's a new 'techy' factor that hasn't been discovered and that value hasn't been doing poorly?
Replies: 38
Views: 2595

Re: What if there's a new 'techy' factor that hasn't been discovered and that value hasn't been doing poorly?

People have been lamenting the death of value, and questioning where the value and small-cap value premium has been for a decade. Except, value hasn't been doing poorly, it's been doing just fine and performing relatively inline with historical levels. Yet, value has been underperforming the total ...
by BogleFan510
Wed Mar 10, 2021 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1980s 14%+ Govt. Bonds?
Replies: 67
Views: 3986

Re: 1980s 14%+ Govt. Bonds?

I'm 26 years old born 1994. Just wanna know if any oldheads on here were able to take advantage of the high interest rates in the 1980s? 30 year bonds had a fixed interest rate of 13-15%! The only time in our country's history when it made sense to buy bonds over equities according to Warren Buffet...
by BogleFan510
Tue Mar 09, 2021 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: The Long Run Is Lying To You
Replies: 86
Views: 11272

Re: Cliff Asness: The Long Run Is Lying To You

... A hypothesis we discussed was that over long periods of time, market forces and the research tended to suggest that absent 'innovations that improve productivity and create new products' ordinary management of assets will return roughly the market cost of capital. ... I tend to disagree. The la...
by BogleFan510
Mon Mar 08, 2021 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 4558
Views: 229010

Re: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]

Favorite new casino. Lots of fish. Fish attract sharks. These things tend to cool off when a new casino gets built and fish migrate elsewhere. Personally I avoid casinos unless some must see show or restaurant is there as a draw. Have fun kids. PS. Manipulated markets are definitely not a new thing ...
by BogleFan510
Sun Mar 07, 2021 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: The Long Run Is Lying To You
Replies: 86
Views: 11272

Re: Cliff Asness: The Long Run Is Lying To You

A had a very fun conversation with a large tech co. senior executive friend I happen to see while traveling about 10 years ago. At the time I was leading a though leadership team at one of the big 4 accouting firms. We happen to both be researching value creation and technology innovation from a mac...
by BogleFan510
Fri Mar 05, 2021 7:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is my Financial Advisor's advice sound?
Replies: 69
Views: 6579

Re: Is my Financial Advisor's advice sound?

As the prospective advisor for the full legal contract / prospectus for the whole life policy and mutual fund and try to read them. It will be a great education. Remember that cash flow is not rate of return, and that an up front fund load is not taken into account when rates of return are published.
by BogleFan510
Thu Mar 04, 2021 11:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Digital COVID passport for travel
Replies: 32
Views: 1770

Re: Digital COVID passport for travel

My wife and I are working at vaccine sites and data is collected by the organizations doing the vaccine. I assume at some point a system of verifying and providing a card for this data might be nationally organized, similar to TSA Global Access.
by BogleFan510
Mon Mar 01, 2021 2:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: T-Mobile Bank 4.00% APY
Replies: 13
Views: 3195

Re: T-Mobile Bank 4.00% APY

I have an account and the inconvenience was pretty acceptable, until the policy change announced today. Starting March 31, the 4% rate requires 10 qualifying transactions using their debit card, per month, instead of a single deposit! Going to start moving money out when better options come up. 1% o...
by BogleFan510
Sun Feb 28, 2021 10:44 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: What is an asset?
Replies: 39
Views: 2202

Re: What is an asset?

This is being made way too difficult. An easy, if somewhat morbid, way to understand what your assets, liabilities, and net worth means is to think through what someone would do to liquidate your estate. Your assets are all the things you have that could be sold. Your liabilities are the debts the ...