Search found 4818 matches

by 000
Wed Apr 21, 2021 11:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: KITCO News Bite on Deflation
Replies: 37
Views: 2829

Re: KITCO News Bite on Deflation

JBTX wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 11:19 pm I tend to agree, but Japan has kind of struggled with this. The difference being the Japanese are big savers that offsets much of the debt issuance.
Yeah, Japan is a good counterexample. I wonder though if reserve currency status cuts both ways, reducing its applicability?
by 000
Wed Apr 21, 2021 11:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: KITCO News Bite on Deflation
Replies: 37
Views: 2829

Re: KITCO News Bite on Deflation

But isn't this always the case? Govts always have net debts, and most corporations always have debt > cash. That's for a reason. The debt is supposed to fund longer term assets. Not cash. S Yes, it is (essentially) always the case in a debt-based monetary system and is in fact a fundamental aspect ...
by 000
Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Opinions on VGSLX/VNQ or ARKK or MGK in Roth IRA
Replies: 4
Views: 377

Re: Opinions on VGSLX/VNQ or ARKK or MGK in Roth IRA

International stocks would likely offer more diversification than VNQ, ARKK, or MGK.

How about VTWAX / VT?
by 000
Wed Apr 21, 2021 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: KITCO News Bite on Deflation
Replies: 37
Views: 2829

Re: KITCO News Bite on Deflation

Northern Flicker wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 8:02 pm High corporate debt is a worry for deflation.
In the short term sure but I was talking about the long term. I don't find it likely that major institutional borrowers, corporate or government, will be paying back their debt with money that's worth more long term.
by 000
Wed Apr 21, 2021 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your 10 - 20 year macro view and why?
Replies: 51
Views: 3501

What is your 10 - 20 year macro view and why?

I'll go first but am curious to hear others' views. I think stagflation is likely the long term direction due to an already struggling real economy and innovation saturation coupled with major asset holders being highly levered. My view on the short term is much weaker though: I don't find the argum...
by 000
Wed Apr 21, 2021 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying any bonds is timing the market... as long as bonds pay less than savings accounts
Replies: 26
Views: 2002

Re: Buying any bonds is timing the market... as long as bonds pay less than savings accounts

Bond bulls are drunk on declining interest rates, but the trough is running empty. Probably still a little bit left though.... They might be right, but why do they believe they know better than the market? Why do Bogleheads endorse market-timing bonds but not market-timing stocks? I'm not sure they...
by 000
Wed Apr 21, 2021 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying any bonds is timing the market... as long as bonds pay less than savings accounts
Replies: 26
Views: 2002

Re: Buying any bonds is timing the market... as long as bonds pay less than savings accounts

I think "negative arbitrage" is a more accurate term for what you describe but yes it is indeed strange to hold bonds or MMF when HYSA pays more.

Bond bulls are drunk on declining interest rates, but the trough is running empty. Probably still a little bit left though....
by 000
Wed Apr 21, 2021 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Portfolio (SCHD) vs Stock-Bond (VTI-BND) Portfolio
Replies: 71
Views: 3267

Re: Dividend Portfolio (SCHD) vs Stock-Bond (VTI-BND) Portfolio

I don't think 100% SCHD has the same risk level as 70% VTI / 30% BND. Can you demonstrate that it does? I don't have to demonstrate anything. Feel free to show your own risk calculation, then demonstrate how historical risk translates to future risk. You don't have to do anything but if you want us...
by 000
Wed Apr 21, 2021 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Portfolio (SCHD) vs Stock-Bond (VTI-BND) Portfolio
Replies: 71
Views: 3267

Re: Dividend Portfolio (SCHD) vs Stock-Bond (VTI-BND) Portfolio

I don't think 100% SCHD has the same risk level as 70% VTI / 30% BND. Can you demonstrate that it does?
by 000
Wed Apr 21, 2021 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: KITCO News Bite on Deflation
Replies: 37
Views: 2829

Re: KITCO News Bite on Deflation

Northern Flicker wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 2:14 pm Define what you mean by a large corporation being a net borrower? I don't think very many have debt exceeding assets.
Their fiat debt exceeds their fiat assets, not necessarily their total assets including real estate, IP, etc. Thus they are net short fiat.
by 000
Wed Apr 21, 2021 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: KITCO News Bite on Deflation
Replies: 37
Views: 2829

Re: KITCO News Bite on Deflation

watchnerd wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 2:03 pm
000 wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 1:54 pm (I don't think fiat will as the major asset holders of the world are short fiat).
elaborate?

data?
Basically every government and large corporation is a net borrower.
by 000
Wed Apr 21, 2021 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: KITCO News Bite on Deflation
Replies: 37
Views: 2829

Re: KITCO News Bite on Deflation

As far as I can tell, there's some kind of feedback loop between anti-deflationary efforts and asset price inflation across the board. So if that loop gets broken (maybe by something like short-term expected excess inflation continuing a little longer than anticipated and/or interest rates rising a...
by 000
Tue Apr 20, 2021 11:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall
Replies: 252
Views: 19709

Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

I don't rebalance in/out of FM, as neither makes sense for managing FM. Once the portfolio is big enough, I will simply make withdrawals from whichever has more money (FM or BH). This way, I'm always "nudging" to rebalance toward 50/50. But if you have enough and have won the game, why ke...
by 000
Tue Apr 20, 2021 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: KITCO News Bite on Deflation
Replies: 37
Views: 2829

Re: KITCO News Bite on Deflation

I think deflation is a possibility. I mean really the last 20 years have been deflationary in the real economy while inflationary for asset prices in the US. Ultimately I don't think deflation in fiat terms is likely. There's no limit to the printing presses. If deflation happens in fiat terms I thi...
by 000
Tue Apr 20, 2021 11:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would BNDX (USD Hedged Non-USD Bond Fund) Protect against USD Inflation?
Replies: 14
Views: 1100

Re: Would BNDX (USD Hedged Non-USD Bond Fund) Protect against USD Inflation?

1) It seems to me that much of the “inflation risk” ultimately actually manifests as “interest rate risk”. If US dollars are experiencing inflation, then US interest rates will rise. They may or they may not. The Fed may suppress rates. Foreign investors unaffected by US inflation may buy US Treasu...
by 000
Tue Apr 20, 2021 11:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Here's my portfolio
Replies: 151
Views: 26555

Re: Here's my portfolio

Carol88888 wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 10:15 pm Has this portfolio outperformed 85% VTI and 15% BND? By how much? Was it really worth the time and trouble to put this together?
A fairer benchmark would be 85% VT and 15% BND as the portfolio has always been globally diversified through its changes.
by 000
Tue Apr 20, 2021 10:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall
Replies: 252
Views: 19709

Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

I don't rebalance in/out of FM, as neither makes sense for managing FM. Once the portfolio is big enough, I will simply make withdrawals from whichever has more money (FM or BH). This way, I'm always "nudging" to rebalance toward 50/50. But if you have enough and have won the game, why ke...
by 000
Tue Apr 20, 2021 10:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bull Market in Bond
Replies: 25
Views: 2873

Re: Bull Market in Bond

My main alternatives to stock indices other than a small remaining bond allocation are cash, gold, and "value" stocks. No one knows for sure what will happen with rates but holding bonds is not a risk I want to take right now other than with my ~5% allocation. OTOH dumping bonds for stocks...
by 000
Tue Apr 20, 2021 10:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22960
Views: 3012389

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

abuss368 wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 7:59 pm I am backing up my space ship this week!

Tony
Which way is backwards in space? :mrgreen:
by 000
Tue Apr 20, 2021 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall
Replies: 252
Views: 19709

Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Now of course the tricky thing is, what do you do when funny money trades do so well. What do you think about this? Until the portfolio is big enough (to retire or whatever), let funny money ride or be "rolled over" to other funny money trades. Once the portfolio is big enough, rebalance ...
by 000
Tue Apr 20, 2021 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please read this before posting about ETF comparisons in March 2020
Replies: 20
Views: 947

Re: Please read this before posting about ETF comparisons in March 2020

I was referring only to the one-month price decline one would probably have to take to get out of an individual muni or corporate bond ("slaughter" is relative to the usual volatility and potential upside of bonds). Of course if one turned around and immediately bought stocks they obvious...
by 000
Tue Apr 20, 2021 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please read this before posting about ETF comparisons in March 2020
Replies: 20
Views: 947

Re: Please read this before posting about ETF comparisons in March 2020

The real sin here is backtesting not how ETFs performed in March 2020. Imagine if you had a individual muni or corp bond you were trying to get out of then. You would have gotten slaughtered. It's not a problem of liquid ETFs but of the underlying holdings (i.e. how the bond market works). I see yo...
by 000
Tue Apr 20, 2021 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please read this before posting about ETF comparisons in March 2020
Replies: 20
Views: 947

Re: Please read this before posting about ETF comparisons in March 2020

It does seem that when an ETF sells a significant discount, either (1) the supposed NAV is too high and there actually is no discount, or (2) the "authorized participants" who are supposed to step in and buy ETF shares when there is a surplus on the market (just as they would create more ...
by 000
Tue Apr 20, 2021 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please read this before posting about ETF comparisons in March 2020
Replies: 20
Views: 947

Re: Please read this before posting about ETF comparisons in March 2020

However, these posts ignore the fact that many ETFs were on steep discount. VTEB, for example, was over 9% on discount; yet, the holdings are good quality municipal bonds and did not drop like this in reality. Municipal bonds dropped a little then, but the discount exaggerated the situation. ETFs c...
by 000
Tue Apr 20, 2021 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If active investing is foolish, why do we utterly, blindly trust active investors (fools) to set prices for us?
Replies: 26
Views: 2591

Re: If active investing is foolish, why do we utterly, blindly trust active investors (fools) to set prices for us?

Who's the more foolish: the fool or the fool who follows him? :confused

The whole stock market is a bit of a farce IMO. But there's no good alternative right now to playing along.
by 000
Sun Apr 18, 2021 11:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is meant by "Get Out of Bonds" ??
Replies: 21
Views: 2357

Re: What is meant by "Get Out of Bonds" ??

It means sell bonds, buy something else.

BTW, I think the bond bulls upthread are likely to be in for some disappointment this decade...
by 000
Sun Apr 18, 2021 11:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Invest 120K now or wait for the crash?
Replies: 75
Views: 9946

Re: Invest 120K now or wait for the crash?

ballasowjanya18 wrote: Sun Apr 18, 2021 10:42 pm
MindBogler wrote: Sun Apr 18, 2021 9:42 pm Put it all in now. If it crashes soon then you have a great tax loss harvest opportunity.
Never though this way. But, what you said makes sense
It makes no sense to deliberately lose money to pay less taxes unless one's tax rate is >100%. At best tax loss harvesting is deferral.
by 000
Sun Apr 18, 2021 11:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Invest 120K now or wait for the crash?
Replies: 75
Views: 9946

Re: Invest 120K now or wait for the crash?

Depends on how long you're willing to wait for the crash. Market timing doesn't work if you can't stay the course.
by 000
Sat Apr 17, 2021 6:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Synthetic Cash?
Replies: 28
Views: 2407

Re: Synthetic Cash?

The proposed portfolio is not guaranteed to be "low volatility portfolio with a much higher return" than cash. During a rising rate environment, cash will likely significantly outperform the proposed portfolio. During deflationary times, cash will probably outperform the proposed portfolio...
by 000
Sat Apr 17, 2021 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Mortgage is a negative bond" - please help me understand
Replies: 302
Views: 15337

Re: "Mortage is a negative bond" - please help me understand

This is about liquidity RISK. What liquidity event are you anticipating? If you end up staying in the house for the duration of the mortgage, the extra fixed income amount plus some interest goes to the mortgage payments and at the end you are in the same position as if the mortgage were paid off t...
by 000
Sat Apr 17, 2021 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total market investors, do you feel comfortable with only a handful of companies at the top?
Replies: 44
Views: 3643

Re: Total market investors, do you feel comfortable with only a handful of companies at the top?

abuss368 wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 6:00 pm
000 wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:09 pm In VTWAX yes. In VTSAX no. So I use the former.
So you are invested at market weight?

Tony
No I am tilted away from US stock index. But I would also be fine holding VTWAX as sole stock fund.
by 000
Sat Apr 17, 2021 5:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Beginning to evaluate the holdings of Vanguard Target Retirement Funds
Replies: 138
Views: 8485

Re: Beginning to evaluate the holdings of Vanguard Target Retirement Funds

Adam Mundorf wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 2:35 am
000 wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 5:32 pm I still think Vanguard investor shares might still be available at some other brokers / plans. Or perhaps the rollout of Admiral shares everywhere has completed.
I only have access to investor shares through my companies 401k. No admiral yet.
Thank you for confirming.
by 000
Sat Apr 17, 2021 1:42 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: [Australia] Asset Allocation, Portfolio, Rebalancing & Strategy Advice
Replies: 8
Views: 802

Re: [Australia] Asset Allocation, Portfolio, Rebalancing & Strategy Advice

As far as VDHG vs VGS/VAS I'm not sure (not familiar with Australian funds) but there are a few factors I'd consider: coverage (for example, are emerging markets and small caps included at market weight), how much of the international stocks are hedged, and expense ratio. I guess the big question fo...
by 000
Sat Apr 17, 2021 1:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard - How America Invests
Replies: 28
Views: 3300

Re: Vanguard - How America Invests

I wonder if retirees might use it as sort of a bank and let dividends and living expenses pile up in there. Probably. Some posters have discussed keeping large balances in the Federal Money Market fund. When I pointed out the difference in yield (40bp+ at the time) between that and a high yield sav...
by 000
Sat Apr 17, 2021 12:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Move towards a higher stock allocation after a crash
Replies: 67
Views: 4011

Re: Move towards a higher stock allocation after a crash

HomerJ wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 12:23 am Explain how one does the negative numbers, please...
The third column is negative cash aka debt aka portfolio leverage. Though I'm not sure that levering up while catching a falling knife is necessarily a good idea....
by 000
Sat Apr 17, 2021 12:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard - How America Invests
Replies: 28
Views: 3300

Re: Vanguard - How America Invests

tj wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 9:07 pm Overall, people seem to be 82%/18% domestic/international.

Those over 45 seem to have more invested in stocks than the target date funds do.
More evidence for the US stocks bubble. :twisted:
by 000
Sat Apr 17, 2021 12:17 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: [Australia] Asset Allocation, Portfolio, Rebalancing & Strategy Advice
Replies: 8
Views: 802

Re: [Australia] Asset Allocation, Portfolio, Rebalancing & Strategy Advice

What does VDHG hold? Does it tilt to "growth" (high P/E) stocks? You might consider a simple portfolio of domestic and international equities at some reasonable ratio without other tilts. My overall macroeconomic view is that we will have 5 to 7 years of global economic prosperity as a res...
by 000
Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard - How America Invests
Replies: 28
Views: 3300

Re: Vanguard - How America Invests

People sure are sitting on a lot of cash at Vanguard: The average portfolio consists of 63% equities (stocks), 16% fixed income (bonds), and 21% cash (short-term reserves) . I guess "stay the course" applies even to not paying attention to how much your money market fund is yielding. :oops:
by 000
Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold continues to soar!
Replies: 396
Views: 27783

Re: Gold continues to soar!

luckyducky99 wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:20 pm I read this, then made a joke to myself "gold-backed crypto LOLOL." But then I googled that, and sure enough... https://pmgt.perthmint.com/
To every thing there is a season. :P

To every asset there is a crypto? :greedy
by 000
Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Mortgage is a negative bond" - please help me understand
Replies: 302
Views: 15337

Re: "Mortgage is a negative bond" - please help me understand

KlangFool wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 4:52 pm More return does close to nothing for me. Liquidity RISK can wipe me out.
How? Can you explain what situation in your life might require the amount of liquidity we're talking about here?
by 000
Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Mortgage is a negative bond" - please help me understand
Replies: 302
Views: 15337

Re: "Mortage is a negative bond" - please help me understand

rudeboy wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 1:09 pm I will have to think on this perspective and see if I come around to it -- I want to.
Good.... because vineviz is correct :D
by 000
Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold continues to soar!
Replies: 396
Views: 27783

Re: Gold continues to soar!

watchnerd wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:07 pm I thought it was vs a crypto-gold barbell?
Which weighs more, the bits on the Treasury's mainframe or the bits on the blockchain?
by 000
Fri Apr 16, 2021 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold continues to soar!
Replies: 396
Views: 27783

Re: Gold continues to soar!

Forester wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 6:30 pm The opportunity cost of a gold-bonds barbell, versus just bonds, is currently low. There will be a time when gold could be dismissed, but I don't see it yet.
What about the opportunity cost compared to a crypto-bonds barbell? :twisted:
by 000
Fri Apr 16, 2021 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Beginning to evaluate the holdings of Vanguard Target Retirement Funds
Replies: 138
Views: 8485

Re: Beginning to evaluate the holdings of Vanguard Target Retirement Funds

All the research about TDF investors staying the course has been during the greatest secular bull market in history. We've had three full bear markets (i.e. >20% drop in equities) since the introduction of TDFs, two of which took 3+ years to recover from, and three more corrections (i.e. >10% drop ...
by 000
Fri Apr 16, 2021 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Beginning to evaluate the holdings of Vanguard Target Retirement Funds
Replies: 138
Views: 8485

Re: Beginning to evaluate the holdings of Vanguard Target Retirement Funds

There was no "capitulation", and the allegation that there was some sort of "arms race" has no basis in fact. Several industry participants, not just Vanguard, have commented on how surprised they were that TDF investors have been far more open to optimal glide path construction...
by 000
Fri Apr 16, 2021 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold continues to soar!
Replies: 396
Views: 27783

Re: Gold continues to soar!

Robot Monster wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 12:37 pm Bloomberg video: "What’s The Outlook for Inflation and Gold?" link

Everything said in the video is gospel truth, so please invest accordingly.

In other news, "Gold prices rise, head for best weekly gain of the year" link
So, are you buying?
by 000
Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Move towards a higher stock allocation after a crash
Replies: 67
Views: 4011

Re: Move towards a higher stock allocation after a crash

That all hinges on your ability to 100% time the bottom of the crash and start buying back at the front of the pack. That's typically a Three-card Monte risk level. It doesn't have to be done perfectly to be profitable. Besides, most Bogleheads seem to think 50% is about the maximum stocks can drop...
by 000
Thu Apr 15, 2021 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
Replies: 226
Views: 15417

Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?

tim1999 wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 8:33 pm I am actually surprised Coinbase stock went down today. I had thought there would be a massive amount of retail investor FOMO propelling it upward.
Top's in?