Search found 4743 matches

by 000
Mon Apr 12, 2021 11:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 133
Views: 6672

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

It had been in existence for over 25 years when they made the change. From memory, it changed from Gold & Silver to Precious Metals & Mining (reducing exposure somewhat to precious metals) near the bottom of the previous bear market in PMs and then changed from Precious Metals & Mining ...
by 000
Mon Apr 12, 2021 11:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 133
Views: 6672

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

Northern Flicker wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 10:57 pm
000 wrote: Even Vanguard has bailed on strategies in its fairly tame active funds (Precious Metals / Mining fund...
That fund originated in 1984.
I don't follow your point.
by 000
Mon Apr 12, 2021 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another 2.8% SWR Article Quoting Wade Pfau
Replies: 195
Views: 10331

Re: Another 2.8% SWR Article Quoting Wade Pfau

All we know is what has actually happened in the past. But we don't know whether the past is representative of the future. We don't know about all the things that could have happened but didn't. More importantly, we do know that 4% WR did not work in some countries in the last century. We also know...
by 000
Mon Apr 12, 2021 7:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity pushing deferred annuity
Replies: 14
Views: 1250

Re: Fidelity pushing deferred annuity

Actually he'll have to sell them. It's hard to believe in this day and age, but when you roll a 401K over to another broker they send you a check made out to the broker with the "fbo" notation. See https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/directrollover.asp The OP should make sure they ask fo...
by 000
Mon Apr 12, 2021 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another 2.8% SWR Article Quoting Wade Pfau
Replies: 195
Views: 10331

Re: Another 2.8% SWR Article Quoting Wade Pfau

There are too many variables to make accurate predictions... Economics is far harder than rocket science. You are unable to model accurately the odds in the past. You are unable to model accurately the odds today. You are therefore unable to accurately know if the odds are better or worse today. So...
by 000
Mon Apr 12, 2021 7:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity pushing deferred annuity
Replies: 14
Views: 1250

Re: Fidelity pushing deferred annuity

SkylerBIS wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 6:30 pm Anyway, thinking of rollover to Vanguard instead.
This is the way (though be aware you may want to sell Fidelity mutual funds before the transfer as there may be a fee to sell them at Vanguard).
by 000
Mon Apr 12, 2021 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 133
Views: 6672

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

Very true And sadly this problem isn't limited to alts or interval funds. Even Vanguard has bailed on strategies in its fairly tame active funds (Precious Metals / Mining fund, Energy fund, US Value) usually around the worst time. For me, the potential of the sponsor changing course is the deal-bre...
by 000
Mon Apr 12, 2021 5:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: ETF For Cybercurrency If Asset Class
Replies: 21
Views: 1276

Re: ETF For Cybercurrency If Asset Class

I prefer to invest in the cryptocurrency businesses than the coins themselves.

I use the BLOK ETF.
by 000
Mon Apr 12, 2021 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else hoarding cash right now?
Replies: 240
Views: 28641

Re: Anyone else hoarding cash right now?

Ben8848 wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:48 pm Do these charts give anyone pause and make you want to slow down your contributions at the moment?
Yes, but the possibility of further asset inflation prevents me from doing so.
by 000
Mon Apr 12, 2021 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 133
Views: 6672

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

12 years is still pretty short. It effectively represents a single cycle where stocks, especially S&P500, have shot up with quite low volatility and interest rates on bonds have declined some. Maybe true, but if a fund provider abandons the strategy, "not enough time" isn't a defense.
by 000
Mon Apr 12, 2021 5:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What equities fund should I add to my Target Date Fund?
Replies: 15
Views: 1092

Re: What equities fund should I add to my Target Date Fund?

Do either of you have any concerns about the TSM or SP 500 being market weighted, where you feel like you might miss out on the specific value of a factor like small caps due to their ratio within the index fun, or are you generally pleased with the returns from TSM or SP 500? Not in a portfolio ho...
by 000
Mon Apr 12, 2021 5:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Questions about Frequent trading or market-timing
Replies: 6
Views: 586

Re: Questions about Frequent trading or market-timing

But my question is Frequent trading or market-timing . If I were to buy and sell AAPL shares frequently like day trading, do I get dinged by the policy? Your trades in stock will not be free after a certain number and you will be charged a commission. Those commissions are explained on the vanguard...
by 000
Mon Apr 12, 2021 2:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Questions about Frequent trading or market-timing
Replies: 6
Views: 586

Re: Questions about Frequent trading or market-timing

Robinhood gives their users margin accounts by default, but all margin accounts at all brokers are subject to the PDT rule.

You could get a margin account at a broker other than Robinhood (even Vanguard offers them, but there are probably better choices).
by 000
Mon Apr 12, 2021 1:50 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What equities fund should I add to my Target Date Fund?
Replies: 15
Views: 1092

Re: What equities fund should I add to my Target Date Fund?

lakpr wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 12:53 am I would simply choose a 10-year later target date fund.
+1
by 000
Mon Apr 12, 2021 1:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Questions about Frequent trading or market-timing
Replies: 6
Views: 586

Re: Questions about Frequent trading or market-timing

Trading stocks or ETFs (i.e. not plain old mutual funds) is not subject to the "Frequent trading or market-timing" section. But the freeriding and other rules listed on that page matter. This means, basically, that if you sell security A to buy security B, you must wait until the first tra...
by 000
Mon Apr 12, 2021 12:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another 2.8% SWR Article Quoting Wade Pfau
Replies: 195
Views: 10331

Re: Another 2.8% SWR Article Quoting Wade Pfau

Anyway, back to Wade Pfau... Back to Wade Pfau.... For those who say Pfau and others don't know enough to claim that "4% WR is [probably] not safe", how can they know enough to claim that "4% WR is safe"? How can those who profess ignorance about future returns simultaneously pr...
by 000
Mon Apr 12, 2021 12:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another 2.8% SWR Article Quoting Wade Pfau
Replies: 195
Views: 10331

Re: Another 2.8% SWR Article Quoting Wade Pfau

HomerJ wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 11:32 pm You don't know. No one does.
So, would you say you do or do not know whether the 4% WR is safe?
by 000
Sun Apr 11, 2021 11:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What’s the correct diversification for high inflation?
Replies: 214
Views: 17635

Re: What’s the correct diversification for high inflation?

But not now? Are you actively going in and out or is something else going on? Yes. No. Yes. I sold in one account to make room for a short term trade. In another account my natural resources play is precious metals miners and oil stocks, which is similar to GUNR but lacking some things the largest ...
by 000
Sun Apr 11, 2021 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another 2.8% SWR Article Quoting Wade Pfau
Replies: 195
Views: 10331

Re: Another 2.8% SWR Article Quoting Wade Pfau

The SWR discussion is tiring considering that the SWR framework is not a great withdrawal framework in my opinion.

But, assuming a continuation of trend without an understanding of the fundamentals is a weak argument.
by 000
Sun Apr 11, 2021 8:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: AVUS vs VTI in taxable?
Replies: 4
Views: 668

Re: AVUS vs VTI in taxable?

For me, the willingness to hold forever is more important than other factors for taxable account allocation. I'd rather be locked into VTI than AVUS. I think it is far, far more likely that a fund like AVUS would change in some way to reduce my willingness to hold it, or change to become significant...
by 000
Sat Apr 10, 2021 9:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Spouse recently passed away. Please help me handle his financial matters]
Replies: 92
Views: 5342

Re: So what is wrong with not investing?

My condolences. Being emotionally attached to the specific dollar amount is understandable because it came from your late husband, but in my opinion the best way to honor his life savings would be to use them as he intended, which would mean to invest them in a suitable fashion for you (and/or other...
by 000
Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CryptoHeads: What's next after NFTs?
Replies: 22
Views: 1678

Re: CryptoHeads: What's next after NFTs?

I don't know, NFTs feel like a "jumped the shark" moment to me. At least a decentralized currency has a theoretical application. But being recognized by others as the "owner" of something like a basketball dunk clip has no application other than vanity / conspicuous consumption....
by 000
Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on International Funds...
Replies: 7
Views: 437

Re: Question on International Funds...

People usually mean percent of stocks, not percent of total, but I wonder if percent of total is actually better, i.e. as allocation to fixed income increases allocation to foreign stocks remains the same (as foreign stocks probably offer more inflation protection than domestic stocks).
by 000
Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CryptoHeads: What's next after NFTs?
Replies: 22
Views: 1678

Re: CryptoHeads: What's next after NFTs?

I don't know, NFTs feel like a "jumped the shark" moment to me. At least a decentralized currency has a theoretical application. But being recognized by others as the "owner" of something like a basketball dunk clip has no application other than vanity / conspicuous consumption. ...
by 000
Sat Apr 10, 2021 5:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Deciding it it's worth it to buy long-term individual stocks
Replies: 57
Views: 5266

Re: Deciding it it's worth it to buy long-term individual stocks

safe long term holds like AAPL . Nothing high risk. You may want to rethink your assumptions here.... AAPL is a speculative bet on people buying more overpriced (relatively and absolutely) consumer tech goods. One’s baseless opinion. On other hand I had AAPL position , bought back in March 2020 , m...
by 000
Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I wish VTWAX was no transaction fee at Schwab
Replies: 82
Views: 6694

Re: I wish VTWAX was no transaction fee at Schwab

I decided to use VTWAX but only buy it in $25k chunks. So my taxable is entirety VTWAX. For my tax advantaged, which is where new contributions are going, I’m buying SWTSX and SWISX until I get to $25k, then will exchange for VTWAX. Being VTWAX for my TSM allocation is important to me. I want one f...
by 000
Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Protect savings from imminent inflation?
Replies: 29
Views: 2868

Re: Protect savings from imminent inflation?

A good helping of un hedged foreign stocks (such as VTIAX/VXUS), commodity producer stocks (such as GUNR), precious metals, and cryptocurrencies are possibilities. Another, IMO underappreciated, way to hedge inflation is to pre-purchase things you can/will actually use in your own life. A few exampl...
by 000
Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Just spoke w FA at VG [Financial Advisor at Vanguard]
Replies: 14
Views: 1305

Re: Just spoke w FA at VG

Ineed$ wrote: Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:05 pm Does 24% seem high for international?
No, I don't think so.
by 000
Thu Apr 08, 2021 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do Vanguard Target Date funds have such high tracking error?
Replies: 15
Views: 2029

Re: Why do Vanguard Target Date funds have such high tracking error?

I read the footnote on the Vanguard 2060 page [from the link above], it is not one benchmark, it consists of the (arithmetically combined) benchmarks for each of the underlying funds. By definition, a fund that holds the underlying funds in a constant ratio cannot match the composite benchmark beca...
by 000
Thu Apr 08, 2021 7:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Deciding it it's worth it to buy long-term individual stocks
Replies: 57
Views: 5266

Re: Deciding it it's worth it to buy long-term individual stocks

invester123 wrote: Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:59 pm safe long term holds like AAPL. Nothing high risk.
You may want to rethink your assumptions here....

AAPL is a speculative bet on people buying more overpriced (relatively and absolutely) consumer tech goods.
by 000
Thu Apr 08, 2021 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What’s the correct diversification for high inflation?
Replies: 214
Views: 17635

Re: What’s the correct diversification for high inflation?

Corsair wrote: Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:55 am Does anyone hold GUNR? Considering this for my Natural Resources %

https://www.flexshares.com/funds/GUNR#sector_breakdown
I did and plan to again.
by 000
Thu Apr 08, 2021 12:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do Vanguard Target Date funds have such high tracking error?
Replies: 15
Views: 2029

Why do Vanguard Target Date funds have such high tracking error?

Looking over the various Vanguard target date funds I am seeing tracking error around 30bp+ over most time periods presented. These funds have expense ratios between 12bp - 15bp so a fair amount of the benchmark divergence is not due to the ER. For example, Vanguard Target Retirement 2060 Fund (VTTS...
by 000
Wed Apr 07, 2021 7:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Simplicity over Small Cap Value
Replies: 83
Views: 5565

Re: Simplicity over Small Cap Value

Simplicity. VTWAX in non-taxable and VTSAX/VTIAX at world weights in taxable (to get foreign tax credit).
by 000
Wed Apr 07, 2021 3:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Short TLT as inflation hedge?
Replies: 15
Views: 825

Re: Short TLT as inflation hedge?

What if the Fed prevents rates from rising?
by 000
Tue Apr 06, 2021 10:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 High Dividend ETF - SPYD
Replies: 47
Views: 3850

Re: S&P 500 High Dividend ETF - SPYD

I also don't think this is a great way to reduce tech allocation if that is the goal. Other ways to do this would be more international, US value stocks, or an ex-tech fund. SPYD fund holds too few stocks for me and I'm not a fan of dividend funds either.
by 000
Tue Apr 06, 2021 10:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factorheads Opinions Please VFMF/VSS
Replies: 19
Views: 1549

Re: Factorheads Opinions Please VFMF/VSS

pascalwager wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 10:24 pm Sorry, it's "XCEM", not "VCEM".
Although the low ER is nice, the fact that XCEM has only 99 stocks means you're mostly just getting large caps - is that a problem?
by 000
Tue Apr 06, 2021 10:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Confused about transaction types for Index Funds
Replies: 2
Views: 389

Re: Confused about transaction types for Index Funds

I think you want to pick "mutual funds".
by 000
Tue Apr 06, 2021 6:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anxiety/Overthinking
Replies: 35
Views: 2718

Re: Anxiety/Overthinking

I think you are doing great. Congratulations on starting your investing journey.
by 000
Tue Apr 06, 2021 5:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Self-managed 3 Fund or Life Strategy vs Vanguard PAS for 80 year old
Replies: 12
Views: 1197

Re: Self-managed 3 Fund or Life Strategy vs Vanguard PAS for 80 year old

Could consider Target Retirement Income as well. It contains an allocation to TIPS while the LifeStrategy funds do not.

Also has a 30/70 allocation which in IMO is more reasonable than 20/80, which feels stock-light.
by 000
Tue Apr 06, 2021 3:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: International equity ETF options (IXUS, IDEV, IEMG)
Replies: 8
Views: 832

Re: International equity ETF options (IXUS, IDEV, IEMG)

I don't see any problem simplifying down to just IXUS. In fact I am considering doing something similar.
by 000
Tue Apr 06, 2021 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Bogleheads’ Guide To Investing” Portfolios - 50% in TIPS?
Replies: 25
Views: 3023

Re: “Bogleheads’ Guide To Investing” Portfolios - 50% in TIPS?

IMO 50% of bond allocation to TIPS is a fine allocation (the superiority of Series I bonds for most applications noted above). In fact I would prefer such an allocation to 100% nominals. The fact that TIPS (well, most issues) are providing an explicit negative real yield is not relevant because nomi...
by 000
Tue Apr 06, 2021 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 Years and 100% VTI
Replies: 111
Views: 12394

Re: 30 Years and 100% VTI

The US us #3 in population and #3 in area. It is #2 in natural resources behind Russia. It currently has a small but positive population growth rate. We’re number 1 not just because of two world wars, for which Asia and Europe has recovered from but because we have abundant resources, a large but m...
by 000
Mon Apr 05, 2021 11:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22921
Views: 3006894

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Marseille07 wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:47 pm Yes, SPX futures -0.25% so far.
I see you're back at it :wink:
Let's see what happens.
Indeed...
by 000
Mon Apr 05, 2021 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Vanguard global 60/40 balanced fund thread - give us your thoughts!
Replies: 16
Views: 1593

Re: The Vanguard global 60/40 balanced fund thread - give us your thoughts!

GaryA505 wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 1:23 pm VSMGX Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth
This is my favorite. In addition to the ER difference, STAR seems a hodgepodge and Wellington too concentrated.
by 000
Mon Apr 05, 2021 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 133
Views: 6672

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

...The separation from NAV "problem" bond ETFs have experienced during liquidity crises is because the NAV is wrong, not the ETF market price... Rick Ferri, author of The ETF Book , seemed to interpret it as a problem with the ETF market price, in his article Solving the Bond ETF Discount...
by 000
Mon Apr 05, 2021 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Basing Fixed Income Allocation From Historical Bear Market Recovery Times
Replies: 10
Views: 953

Re: Basing Fixed Income Allocation From Historical Bear Market Recovery Times

Interesting, have you thought about incorporating valuation metrics? Clearly stocks at "high" valuations are less safe than at "low" valuations though we may not know exactly what those thresholds are. Also, how would you apply this to someone who does not have enough to make the...
by 000
Mon Apr 05, 2021 6:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 133
Views: 6672

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

ETFs and Mutual Funds have this problem as well. Every asset class has its unique and hidden risks. How do ETFs have this problem? There was a thread on this topic regarding Bond ETFs. Essentially a mismatch between the liquidity of the ETFs themselves and the liquidity of the individual bonds with...
by 000
Mon Apr 05, 2021 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 133
Views: 6672

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

nedsaid wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 3:19 pm ETFs and Mutual Funds have this problem as well.

Every asset class has its unique and hidden risks.
How do ETFs have this problem?